Monsoon’s forecast for the Monday-Tuesday event, including discussion of the March 7th snow-fantasy
While we’re in this mid-February lull in terms of winter precipitation, I thought I’d offer my take on the next few potential winter weather events…
The period from Friday the 19th through Sunday the 21st looks partly cloudy and breezy with highs in the upper 30s to near 40 and a low in the lower 20s.
The Monday the 22nd to Tuesday the 23rd event is a difficult call because of conflicting information thus far regarding storm track and surface temperatures. My sense right now is that we’ll have intermittent snow beginning late Monday morning, mixing with sleet and rain in the afternoon, then intensifying overnight and ending Tuesday morning. Accumulations in the forecast area (central and southern Berks, northern Lancaster) should be light—in the 1-3 inch range. Temperatures stay in the low to mid 30s during the storm. Driving could get a bit dicey, particularly if there is a prolonged period of mixed precipitation.
Cancellation/delay projections:
Monday cancellation, 25%
Monday early dismissal, 55%
Monday delay, 10%
Tuesday delay, 65%
Tuesday cancellation, 15%
As this system comes into sharper focus this weekend, I will send out an update (including revised storm total projections as well as school cancellation and delay potentials).
Thursday the 25th brings the chance for some more snow – this time a bit more than what seems to be in store early in the week. Snow could last much of the day, cancelling schools and accumulating as much as 6-8 inches. Updates to follow.
From March 3rd to the 5th we’re looking at another event, this one a sprawling affair that could involve mixed precipitation and significant accumulation.
The most dominant rumor about upcoming snow has grown out of Reading-area almanac writer Lester Moyer’s notoriety due to a Reading Eagle article about his apparently successful prediction of the two early-February blizzards. The story goes that on March 7th, up to 40 inches of snow will fall; this amount will be compounded by widespread drifting and blowing snow. In Lester’s words, this is going to be “the granddaddy of ‘em all.”
Now, I don’t want to knock this eccentric, prodigiously-bearded local character. And I don’t want to ridicule his forecasting methods, which include studying the phases of the moon and relying heavily on his “gut.” After all, many folks rely on far more esoteric phenomena and deeply-held superstitions to guide their lives—and I’ll admit to the employment of instinct in creating my own forecasts.
But lunar phases and intuition alone cannot predict the weather—and in any case, while almanacs have shown a tolerable ability to see climatological trends, they’ve had a notoriously spotty record at pinpointing actual precipitation events.
It is true that Mr. Moyer did predict two early-February storms in his almanac. But it is also true that he predicted lower-than-normal snowfall for winter 2009-2010—a total of 18 to 20 inches of mostly nuisance snows.
Let me specifically address the 40-inch prediction. Given that snow ratios in March are typically 10:1 (10 inches of snow for every inch of rain, roughly), we’d need four inches of moisture to produce 40 inches of snow. That’s some biblical end-times type scheisse right there. It’s not likely to happen, in other words.
So far, I don’t see this monstrous storm in our future—though, as noted above, the first week of March is setting up favorably for wintry precipitation.
Stay tuned…