Monsoon's Snowstorm Update for 24 February 2010
My call on the storm is basically the same as what I put forth last night. Here’s my latest thinking, based on the most updated information…
I believe the heaviest snow will fall in eastern and northeastern Pennsylvania (Allentown, the Poconos, and Scranton), north Jersey, interior New York, and western Connecticut. Look for totals of 16 inches to two feet in these areas.
But we in the forecast area of Berks and northern Lancaster Counties will not be spared here. I’m going to stick with 8-12 inches, with the possibility of more in some places, depending on snow banding and storm track. We’ll still have howling winds; look for winds ramping up to 20-30mph tomorrow and gusts of 40-50mph.
Timing: snow begins sometime after midnight, and certainly (and crucially, for the sake of school scheduling changes) by the morning commute. We may see a bit of a slowdown (maybe even a break) on Thursday evening before a second wave of precipitation late Thursday night into Friday morning.
Bust potential (or the possibility that we could get little or nothing out of this system): moderate. There are definitely other scenarios that could play out here, but to discuss them in depth would amount to hedging. Not gonna do it.
When to minimize travel: all day Thursday, particularly in the evening when visibility is low; and Friday morning.
School scheduling potentials:
Thursday delay, 10% (it just doesn’t make sense)
Thursday cancellation, 80% (but I think it’ll be a morning cancellation—we won’t be so lucky as to get the call tonight)
Thursday early dismissal (if we’re here in the first place), 95%
Friday delay, 85% (it’s still going to be snowing Friday morning)
Friday cancellation, 60% (this storm might really produce a mess; another day of clean-up would really be prudent)
Lastly, I’d like to thank all of you for visiting the weblog and sharing it far and wide. You’ve made February my biggest month ever (by far) with several days still to go in the month, with more than 3,000 views and more than 1,200 unique users (or separate individuals visiting the site). Again, thanks!
Stay tuned for in-storm updates if anything changes…