Monsoon's Storm Recap and Look-Ahead
What a curious, maddening snowstorm: some areas got scarcely any accumulation, and others (in the places I figured would get hardest-hit) got more than two feet of snow.
I have to acknowledge some problems with my forecast, though: accumulating snow did not develop here until later Thursday night, whereas I thought it would begin accumulating and causing travel problems by early Thursday afternoon; and snow totals in most of the forecast area just didn’t reach even the adjusted 6-8 inch forecast.
Why did the storm fail to live up to my forecast? A few reasons…
- My forecast was flawed. I got all excited about the prospect of more heavy snowfall that I missed some indicators suggesting this might be lighter for us.
- The angle of the sun this time of year—combined with the lightness of precipitation for much of this long event—meant the snow just couldn’t accumulate on roadways for the most part.
- The low stalled farther north than I originally thought it might, so only the outermost bands of precipitation reached the Berks-Lancaster area. At times, some of these bands looked impressively heavy, but they frequently fell apart before they could do much damage here.
- The forecast models overplayed the ridge that would forestall the system and extend the heaviest snow into the area; again, I should have recognized this.
Snowfall totals at this point (around 6pm Friday evening) are about as widely varied as one finds from a single storm—a storm that, incidentally, continues to spiral its way northeastward, its outer bands of precipitation disintegrating throughout the area. Here are some samples:
Northern New Jersey, 18-26”
Northeastern Pennsylvania, up to 24” (and more in the Poconos)
Allentown and Bethlehem, 14-16”
Bucks County, more than 12” in some locations
Exton, 11”
King of Prussia, 8”
Southern Berks and most of Lancaster County saw 3-5” generally
[Your snow totals and anecdotal reports would be helpful in sorting out just who got what in the area.]
The winds lived up to their billing, howling through the night and morning and caused all sorts of problems; Mifflin had its second straight snow day, according to our Superintendent’s message, due to multiple road closures in the district. Lots of roads were (and some remain) closed due to drifting, especially in northern Berks County.
Winds will continue to die down, but watch for continued drifting, especially tonight.
Here’s what to expect in the coming days:
A few snow showers may linger into Saturday, but expect no additional accumulation.
There are two upcoming storms I have my eye on right now—the second of which having the best chance to affect our area.
First, a coastal storm will head up this way from Florida and potentially be drawn into the existing low, now heading for New England. Very likely this system will affect only New England (and not anything south of New York City), but it bears watching.
Then, a storm that’s now hammering California appears headed for the mid-Atlantic toward the middle of next week (March 3rd or 4th), but a lot remains to be seen regarding this system, including exact track and precipitation type (due to surface temperatures).
Then, I think, finally, mercifully, we’ll be finished with winter storms. By late next week, highs will be in the 40s; snow cover will continue melting and the ground will warm up. This all makes it more likely that any precipitation would be rain, or would melt on contact if frozen.
But given this screwy, snowy, once-in-a-lifetime winter, I’m not going to let my guard down (or put the shovels and scrapers away) until we start seeing 50- and 60-degree days!
Stay tuned…