Monsoon's Winter 2011-12 Forecast
It's time.
Meteorological winter (December through February) is almost upon us, and it is time for me to cogitate, calculate, speculate, and prognosticate. And depending on the quality of the forecast, you all will either flagellate or adulate me.
But farewell it, for I will use no art.
(Wait, you might say: hasn't winter already begun? Didn't we have 8 to 10 inches of wintry wetness plopped on our pumpkins and mums and harvest milieus at the end of October? Yes, we did; the picture at right, taken in front of our house, attests to it. But it was an anomaly, a climatological pink moon, and it will not figure in my figuring here.)
Over all, expect a stormy winter of merciless vicissitudes, both in terms of temperature and barometric pressure. There will be a few hits and lots of near-misses. Tracking it all will be fun. (I mean that. I know sarcasm is my true medium, but I really mean that I find weather-watching and forecasting to be enjoyable.)
December 2011: this month will start with temperatures at or near normal (highs in the upper 40s, lows at or just below freezing), then around the 7th or 8th, we'll see a precipitous drop-off, with highs only in the upper 30s--and perhaps even a bit of snowfall. By mid-month we'll be back to normal, and expect a stormy, frigid end of December. Temperatures a couple of degrees below normal over all. Total snowfall: 4-6 inches. School disruptions: no delays, no cancellations.
January 2012: the end-of-year turbulence will continue into January, when we'll see some abnormally cold temperatures. The typical January thaw will follow around the third week of the month, but it will be short-lived. Temperatures 3 degrees below normal over all. Total snowfall: 10-12 inches. School disruptions: 4 delays, 2 cancellations.
February 2012: Some snow early, including a potentially major storm. Then we'll see a warm-up by mid-month, and temperatures will actually be a few degrees above normal for the month. Total snowfall: 8-10 inches. School disruptions: 2 delays, 1 cancellation.
March 2012: rainy to start, with a bit of snow mixed in early in the month, but nothing major. Temperatures will be a degree above normal. Total snowfall: nothing significant. School disruptions: 1 delay, no cancellations.
In all, I expect we'll get at or just below the normal snowfall for this region, 25 inches. We'll have 7 delays and 3 cancellations.
And I am looking forward to casting fore for you fine people, all winter long...