Saturday question mark.
At first I thought Saturday's potential snowfall was nothing--that the moisture would take an eastward track and all we'd get is some light rain mixed with snow. I was also wary of the impending storm, knowing that local media outlets tend to hype any hint of frozen precipitation as a looming apocalypse.
The storm, late Saturday afternoon.But the models are favoring a colder solution and a track farther inland, the meteorology has caught up to the hyperbole, and so I've changed my thinking.
Here's what I think about Saturday, as of Thursday night:
First of all, I see a wedge of cold air settling into our area. Tonight's low will get down to 11 and Friday's high will only reach 30. Temperatures on Saturday will hold fairly steady in the 28-30 range, so most of what falls will be frozen.
Light snow begins Saturday by 8 or 9am, then will fall more steadily starting around 11am. Snow will continue for the rest of the day. At some point, it will mix with (and change over to) sleet and freezing rain before ending overnight. The timing of that mixing is crucial, both to snow totals and road conditions. I am thinking this will happen later (especially in the Berks area), driving snow totals up. I don't think the changeover will happen until 9 or 10pm.
The storm as it begins to move out, pulling in some warmer air aloft and leading to some mixing.[A quick aside: The Weather Channel, the 24-hour weather doom merchant, has continued its practice of naming winter storms, begun last year. We just got through with Cleon and Dion; this one has been christened "Electra." Throughout the winter, we'll also be treated to Falco, Leon, and Quintus. It's like a 12-year-old boy just learned all about Greek and Roman mythology and then was assigned the task of naming these storms. Juvenile.]
As far as driving, Saturday morning should be fine, but the afternoon and evening will be rather dicey. Best to reconsider any plans that involve extensive travel.
So how much snow will we get? That depends on track and changeover timetable, but right now I'd say 4-6 inches in the Berks area, Allentown, Bucks County and central-northern New Jersey; 2-4 in Philly and its immediate suburbs, as well as south Jersey and New York City; and 6-8 inches or more in the Poconos, interior New York state, and much of New England.
The 1973 Buick Electra.(Note: isolated areas in Chester County, northern Lancaster County, and the Lehigh Valley look like they'll be in the "sweet spot" of this storm, and may see more than six inches.)
Winds will be calm to light throughout this storm, so we're not going to see any issues with blowing snow. And it will be a fairly wet-heavy snow.
Sunday turns out partly sunny and breezy, so that's nice. Then it gets cold again. Down into the teens Sunday night, then only up to 31 on Monday. Tuesday 12/17 brings another potential (but minor) chance of snow, and the following Saturday (12/21) looks like an icy mess.
David Hasselhoff, dog lover.
December 23rd and 24th have the potential for snow, and then the last week of December will be a frigid hellscape of yuletide joy: highs of 20, lows of 12, icy snow mounds every damn place.
Still looking promising for snow/ice on New Year's Day to screw up the Mummers Parade! Ha. Take that, you sequined shitheads.
As always, stay tuned for updates!