Unseasonably cool and dry...
...and that will continue for the foreseeable future.
After last week's heat wave, the weather over the past few days has been perfect: low humidity, highs in the low 80s, gentle breezes. The absolute best weather possible for this time of year.
This weekend will be a little hiccup in that trend. Expect increasing cloudiness and humidity throughout the day, with a scattered thunderstorm possible late this afternoon or this evening. Scattered storms are also possible on Sunday, which will be overcast and humid with temperatures generally holding steady in the 70s. When the front arrives late Sunday, some places will see heavy rain, and most everyone is likely to see some rain. (Rainfall totals will range widely from less than a half inch to as much as two inches.)
Best place to keep up with the action is Weather Underground's WunderMap®.
Sir David Hasselhoff snuggles with a wombat at a zoo in Australia. Yes, I have knighted him, because he's the Knight Rider, and yes I can do that. It's done. He's a knight.Then it goes back to being awesome: highs in the low 80s, sunny, low humidity, light breezes for the duration of the week. Lows will be in the lower 60s and may even reach the upper 50s Monday night into Tuesday. (There's a small chance of storms on Thursday, but that seems sketchy to me. Stay tuned for updates.)
Next weekend (the first weekend in August) looks iffy again, with showers and storms possible, particularly on Saturday.
But then the following week (August 5th to the 9th) is going to be great again: mostly sunny with highs in the upper 70s, lows in the upper 50s, breezy. (We may have to deal with showers toward the end of the week, but let's not worry about that just now.)
And then...
AND THEN...
AND THEN...?
more of the same. (Tricked you there, didn't I? You thought I was going to say "back to the heat and humidity and the sweating and the sopping." But no.)
In fact, I don't see temperatures getting into the 90s again until the very end of August!
So enjoy, my excellent readers. You deserve it.
Your love is like a heat wave!
False.
Unless Martha and the Vandellas are lamenting a suffocating, nauseating boyfriend in whose presence one can develop dementia, cramping, or heat stroke, the 1963 hit song “(Love is Like a) Heat Wave” is grievously inaccurate.
Here in the Northeast, a “heat wave” is typically defined as a period of three or more consecutive days on which the temperature (or, alternatively, the heat index) reaches 90 degrees or above. Get ready for TV news interviews with people who work outside ("How are you dealing with this heat?" "Drinkin' plenty of water, I guess."), tips from the CDC on how to deal with the heat ("Drink plenty of water") and ominous dark orange and red blotches on weather maps, Excessive Heat Warnings, and all the rest.
In all seriousness, though, extreme heat kills more people in this country each year than any other weather event--more than hurricanes, more than tornadoes, more than floods. So be sensible: check on the elderly, don't leave pets in cars, stay hydrated, shit like that.
By any measure, but certainly by the definition cited above, this week will bring a heat wave.
Sunday 7/14 will see a high of 91 with moderate humidity, pushing heat index readings into the upper 90s.
Monday 7/15 is when the heat wave starts cranking. The high will reach 94 with elevated humidity, pushing heat indices into the 101 range. Look for isolated thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening.
Tuesday 7/16 will be hot and humid with hazy skies. Highs will again be 94, with heat indices around 102.
Wednesday 7/17 will be worse, so if at all possible, don’t schedule any extended outdoor activities today. High 96, heat index 104.
Thursday 7/18 will be just as nasty as Wednesday, so again, stay indoors as much as possible. High 97, heat index 104.
Friday 7/19, hot and humid. Afternoon storms possible. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. High 94, heat index 101.
Saturday 7/20, a weak cold front comes through and produces some afternoon storms. Whoop-de-frickin-do. High 90.
Sunday 7/21, mostly sunny and a bit less oppressive, but kind of humid. High 86.
Next week looks stormy, overcast, and humid with highs generally in the mid 80s.
Stay cool!
What the hinky hell is "probability of precipitation"?
My fine friends,
For decades, weather forecasts have included "probability of precipitation," which is expressed as a percentage. Today, for instance, there is a 30% chance of storms. Same percentage tomorrow (Wednesday). On Thursday and Friday, though, it's 60% during the day and 50% at night. More of the same percentage horseshit over the weekend.
(Expect temperatures to reach above 90 degrees Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. We won't really see a break in the humidity until after the Independence Day holiday.)
Further complicating matters in forecasting precipiation are terms like "scattered," "isolated," "widespread," "severe," and "strong" when referring to storm potential.
Fear not: Uncle Monsoon is here to sort it all out for you.
(Wait. That sounds creepy, somehow. Let me try that again.)
Fear not: your special weather friend Monsoon is here to make everything al
(Even creepier.)
Fear not: I will explain.
First, the percentages. A 30% chance of storms doe not mean that it will storm 30% of the time. It also does not mean that 30% of the places in the forecast area will see storms.
Instead, the Probability of Precipitation (PoP) describes the chance of precipitation occurring at any point in the forecast area. It's a mathematical formula:
PoP = C x A (where C = the confidence that measurable precipitation will fall somewhere in the forecast area, and A = the percentage of the area that will receive measurable precipitation, if it gets any at all)
So, for example, with thunderstorms, a forecaster typically knows that they are going to occur (A = 100) but determines that two-fifths of the forecast area will receive precipitation. This is typical with pop-up thunderstorms (those that are spotty and arise on hot, humid days and unstable atmosphere) rather than storms associated with a cold front, which are much more likely to strike a larger area. In the example, then, the PoP is 40%.
Let's say that a forecaster is only half sure that precipitation will occur at all, making A = 50. But the forecaster believes that if it does rain, it will happen in 60% of the coverage area. So that would make PoP = .5 x .6 = 30%.
An more confusing explanation of this percentage is as follows: a 60% PoP means that if the weather conditions theoretically occurred ten times, it would rain six out of those ten times.
The bottom line: when there is any chance of thunderstorms expressed in the forecast and your plans include being outside at any point, keep an eye on the Doppler radar. Light green is light rain; medium rain is medium rain; dark green is chubby rain. Yellow is a deluge. Orange is a downpour. Light red is a storm. Dark red is a heavy storm. Pink is a really, super bad storm. Purple and violet indicate possible tornadic activity, so don't shit around with that. Get in the basement or a windowless room until it blows over.
The best radar, I think, is:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx
A quick note about the terminology you'll hear from meteorologists about the likelihood of rain or storms (isolated, scattered, widespread, etc.). Here's how to sort it all out:
Isolated means less than 15% of the forecast area will see this kind of weather.
Widely scattered means 15-24% will see it.
Scattered means 25-54%.
Numerous or widespread means 55 to 70% chance that the area will see this kind of weather.
Prevalent means 71-72%
Pervasive means 73-75%.
Ubiquitous means 76-85%.
Omnipresent means 86-95%.
Fully rife means 96-100%.
Alright, I may have made up the last five. But the other ones are spot-on.
In future installments here at http://monsoonmartin.squarespace.com, we will tackle the difference between "partly cloudy" and "partly sunny" (and other permutations denoting cloud cover) as well as the difference between "showers" and "rain."
Stay tuned!
Supa Moon! ... and North West
A supa moon from last year. Spoiler alert: the upcoming supa moon will look a lot like this.Supa Moon. When the moon is full and at the closest point in its orbit (around the Earth, for those unfamiliar with astronomy), the moon appears much larger and brighter than normal. It's also called a "perigee moon" because of the closest-to-the-Earth orbit thing. It's going to be 14 percent larger (and not one percent more) and 30 percent brighter.
The Supa Moon is not to be confused with the Pink Moon (a full moon occurring in April, or a great little apocalyptic song by Nick Drake), the Harvest Moon (a full moon occurring in September, or a great Neil Young song), a Beaver Moon (a full moon occurring in November, which also sounds somehow inappropriate), or a Blue Moon (the occurrence of two full moons in a single calendar month, or a Rodgers and Hart standard memorably reimagined by the Marcels as a doo-wop scorcher in 1961).
To see the Supa Moon, go outside on Saturday evening, Sunday morning, or Sunday night, open your eyes, and look up. Or, if you are housebound or selenophobic (afraid of the moon) or agoraphobic (afraid of open spaces), watch it from the safety of your computer.
In other weather-themed news, Kimye have named their daughter "North," which gives her the name "North West." I am assuming it's an homage to the Hitchcock classic "North by Northwest" and a more oblique allusion to Shakespeare's Hamlet: "I am but mad north-northwest; when the wind is southerly, I know a hawk from a handsaw." So hopefully they'll select the middle name "Bynorth" to complete the reference. Anyway, the kid has Kanye West and Kim Kardashian as parents, so a goofy name is the least of her worries.
Anywho, lovely weather we're having, innit? Here's what to expect:
Saturday 6/22, sunny and seasonably warm, much like today. High 86, low 63.
Sunday 6/23, mostly sunny and warmer; slight chance of some pop-up evening thunderstorms. High 89, low 66.
Monday 6/24, partly cloudy, hot and more humid. More (but not all) areas will see thunderstorms in the late afternoon. I will be complaining about the weather on this day. Believe that shit. High 92, low 68.
Tuesday 6/25, hazy, hot, and humid. Afternoon thunderstorms. Blech. High 93, low 69.
Wednesday 6/26, warm and humid! Thunderstorms. Balls. High 90, low 68.
Thursday 6/27, overcast with lower temperatures, but still humid. And you know what they say: it's not the heat, it's the humidity, that will god damned kill you. High 84, low 66.
Friday 6/28, partly cloudy and humid with thunderstorms as a strong cold front moves through. High 83, low 64.
Saturday 6/29, humid early with a lingering shower or thunderstorm, then clearing. High 82, low 60.
Sunday 6/30, relief! Sunny and gorgeous. High 80, low 56.
Beyond, the humidity and rain crank up again. The first week of July looks rainy and unstable at the moment. The another heatwave for the weekend of 7/6 and 7/7. Then more hotness. You know: summer.
Dangerous weather on tap for Thursday 6/13
Friends,
The actual baby praying mantis I found bounded away before I could snap his picture. This is a picture I found online, but that's the spitting image. This is not my finger.I met a baby praying mantis this evening whilst doing the yardwork. He was somewhat more skittish than the adult praying mantises I have known (like Manny, who used to hang out in our yard back in Adamstown). Picture a teeny, translucent praying mantis. Adorable!
But I have digressed even before I have begun. Serious weather is in our immediate future. Here are the deets:
The storm headed for our area is hammering the midwest right now. It will be a strong Nor'easter marked by a deep low and warm weather convection. In plain language, that means we will be at an elevated risk of severe weather.
Expect showers to arrive overnight, becoming steadier by 8 or 9am Thursday. The heaviest rain will be from late morning to about 8pm. Rain will taper overnight into early Friday morning.
Many places will see two inches of rain, and isolated areas will approach three inches. The composition of the storm will bring several complications:
- The aforementioned heavy rain will bring the potential for street and small-stream flooding.
- The potential development of derechos (thanks to Megan King for bringing this term to my attention), which are downbursts of destructive straight-line winds. A damaging swath of hurricane-force winds can accompany a line a severe thunderstorms. The most serious risk for this type of event is downed trees and power lines (due to the ground saturation). Again, this is not inevitable, but conditions will be favorable for derecho development.
- The potential development of tornadoes.
- Severe thunderstorms, some of which could feature hail, most likely in the late afternoon or evening.
- Zombies.
Expect highs in the 70s and high humidity tomorrow.
Friday will be partly cloudy and breezy with a slight risk of thunderstorms in the evening.
The weekend looks really nice: highs around 80, plenty of sunshine.
Another front comes through Monday and Tuesday, bringing with it some thunderstorms.
... all of a sudden: spring.
Warming trend!!
You thought it was tough getting the children to concentrate on their schoolwork before? And you thought the students were clad in some uncomfortably revealing, spilling-out-every-which-way, I-didn't-need-to-see-that outfits before? Just wait until it's 80 degrees and sunny outside.
For extra delight, add the incessant question, "Can we go outside to do English today?" (answer: no; the only acceptable reason to go outdoors is to travel from one indoors to another).
James Garner as Jim Rockford. My own Pissy Face owes a debt to this man's expressive mug.Digression: today is James Garner's 85th birthday! Thanks for your great roles in "The Rockford Files," "Maverick," The Americanization of Emily, My Fellow Americans, and many others. Many of you know that Jim Rockford is my favorite television detective ever--and "The Rockford Files" is a stronger show over all than "Knight Rider." I know, I know: blasphemy. But I gots to be honest.
So here is what to expect:
Monday 4/8 will be warmer with variable cloudiness. Look out for a few isolated showers in the afternoon or evening. High 72, low 53.
Tuesday 4/9 will be overcast to start (with a shower or two early), then clearing and markedly warmer in the afternoon. High 78 - much higher than the average high this time of year (49-50), but not likely to reach the record high for this date (85, set in 1991).
Wednesday 4/10 looks mostly sunny and warm. High 77, low 57.
My celebrated Pissy Face also owes a large debt to David Herman, who portrayed Michael Bolton in Office Space. In this screen capture, he is reacting to the vapid perkiness of a co-worker who is endlessly amused by his name.Thursday 4/11 brings some changes. Expect partly sunny, breezy and warm (high 75) conditions in the morning and early afternoon; then a cold front moves through, bringing some showers and even a thunderstorm in the late afternoon. Rain, heavy at times, overspreads the area Thursday evening into Friday morning. Overnight low 51.
Friday 4/12 will be overcast, breezy and cooler with rain, especially early. High 56, low 39.
Saturday 4/13 looks a lot like Saturday 4/6: sunny and gorgeous with a high of 62 and a low of 40.
Sunday 4/14 brings more of the same: sunny and a bit warmer with a high of 67 and a low of 41.
Next week: sunny and warmer again, with mid-70s by midweek, then more seasonable with highs in the upper 50s by the end of the week.
Next weekend: right now, Saturday 4/20 looks like a carbon copy of 4/13 and 4/6. Sunday the 21st, however, looks chilly and rainy and gross with highs only in the low 50s.
Meteorological Haiku.
On a go-forward basis, all of my forecasts will be issued in the Americanized version of the ancient Japanese poetic form, haiku.
Colding overnight
Then chillier tomorrow
And then mild again
.....
Twenties next few nights
Wet sixties by next Monday
Vicissitudes-ah.
.....
First day of April
Traditional pranking day
Rife tomfoolery
.....
Screw this. Too hard. April Fool's. Here's the forecast:
Temperatures dipping into the upper 20s overnight. Still windy.
Tuesday will be colder and still windy with variable cloudiness. High 44, low 26. (But these values will feel like the mid 30s and low 20s because of the goddamned wind.)
Wednesday will be pretty much the same as Tuesday. High 42, low 24.
Thursday looks milder, as we should expect for this time of year. Less windy, too. Sunny to start, then clouding up later. High 56, low 41.
Rainy Friday. Overcast and pluvious. High 52, low 44.
The weekend looks milder and sunnier. Generally sunny. Highs in the upper 50s, lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Next week will see pleasant and much warmer conditions. Highs in the mid-80s. April Fool's!! Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Next weekend looks rainy and miserable. And windy. That would be the 13th and 14th. Sorry.
Thereafter: 70s, and not as wet as you might expect.
One last haiku:
Cole Hamels' moustache
Evanescent lip-warmer
Sadly, shorn too soon
.....
March goes out like a ... lion.
Umida solstitia atque hiemes orate serenas, agricolae.
That's Latin, and it translates roughly to "Farmers, may your summers be wet and your winters clear."
It was written by Virgil, a Roman epic poet in the first century BCE best-known for his Aeneid.
It's also the name of the upcoming winter storm--the one that's already dumping an early-spring accumulation on the midwest--according to the Weather Channel. (I just can't pass up an opportunity to ridicule TWC.)
There is a lot working against this storm--namely, that it will have to overcome the late-March sun angle and the buildup of milder surface temperatures. And the bulk of the event will occur during the day Monday, so if it does snow, it may have a hard time accumulating.
Working in our favor (for accumulating snow) is the fact that temperatures have been well below normal for the past couple of weeks, and the projected high for Monday is 35.
Some forecast models have us (in Reading and the Lehigh Valley) getting 4 to 8 inches of accumulating snow.
Alright, enough stalling. I've got to make a call. Here it is:
We may see some flurries on Sunday night, but snow won't begin in earnest until 3 or 4am Monday. Snow intensifies toward late morning, mixing with sleet and rain. (I do think that the bulk of this event will be snow; in that way, it will be reminiscent of last Monday's action.) Snow tapers by 8pm Monday.
In Philadelphia, its immediate suburbs, and south Jersey, we'll see a more rain and mixing, so I'm just going to call it a slushy coating to an inch for them.
Back to us: Berks and the Lehigh Valley will see 2 to 3 inches of accumulation, mainly on grassy and unpaved surfaces. At various times throughout the day we could see slippery travel, as we did last Monday--particularly during the morning commute and when the snow is at its most intense (late morning and early to mid afternoon), when even major roads can become coated for a time.
Percentages:
Chance of delay Monday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 30%
Chance of early dismissal Monday, 20%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 50%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 10%
Chance of I can't believe you're still reading this: 100%
Stay tuned for updates; I will send out further notifications when and if my forecast changes...
I've been tracking the storm and wanted to give you an update: my thinking has not changed in terms of the precipitation type, timing, and percentages I laid out in my most recent forecast.
The current radar:
