IT WILL BE COLD. (Seriously.)
I know I am known for my dramatics and hyperbole. Example: it was not just a boring meeting; it was the most soul-numbingly soporific gathering in this history of humanity. I did not simply have to wait twenty minutes in line at the deli counter at Giant; I died in that line having only been teased with the faint whiff of baked meats. And no one noticed, because they had all collapsed too.
It's gloriously-named former All-Pro linebacker Coy Bacon (no relation to the actor Kevin Bacon), who was briefly teammates with Boobie Clark in Cincinnati, making them the wackiest-named duo of teammates in the history of organized activities.But I am serious, you-all: it is going to be cold in the next week. Like, the coldest temperatures of the year. Like, even people from Fargo, North Dakota, would be, like, Oh yah, don't ya know, it's frickin' cold here. I'm goin' home and heatin' up a casserole.
First issue is that we could see some slippery spots tomorrow morning as temperatures get down to the low 20s and untreated surfaces refreeze. It's not a huge hazard, but it could be enough for scattered delays.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 22%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 6%
Thursday is cloudy with a few snow showers in the afternoon. Just a coating from this, but we could see some travel issues on the Thursday evening commute.
Friday is the start of that arctic cold I was talking about. We start the day in the lower teens with wind chills in the -5 to -10 range. We only get into the upper teens in the afternoon, with wind chills in the 0 to +5 range.
Chance of cold-weather delay Friday, 16%
Chance of cold-weather cancellation Friday, 3%
Saturday will be overcast and cold (but not quite as cold): highs in the mid 20s and windy (but not quite as windy). Wind chills will be in the teens during the day. Then a blast of arctic holy-shit cold will move in. Lows overnight from Saturday to Sunday will be about 8 with wind chills in the -10 to -15 range. Also, snow is likely on Saturday, but right now it looks like flurries and snow showers that won't amount to much.
Sunday, you've got to be kidding me. The high on Sunday is going to be 16. Really windy too, just for shits and giggles. (Which reminds me of something my Nana used to say, a cautionary proverb, if you will: "It's all shits and giggles until someone giggles and shits." She was a woman of refined expression and profound wisdom.)
Overnight Sunday into Monday, son of a bitch, the actual temperatures are going to get down to -3. Is it still going to be windy, Monsoon? You bet your frozen ass it is. Well then what is that going to do to the wind chills? The wind chills on Monday morning will be -25 to -30.
Monday is only going get into the mid teens (with wind chills around zero). So I think:
Chance of cold-weather delay Monday, 77%
Chance of cold-weather cancellation Monday, 40%
And then Tuesday is another potential storm, but I literally can't even.
Then on Wednesday and Thursday, we punch through the arctic malaise with a tropical blast that will send temperatures skyrocketing into the upper 20s and low 30s.
Stay tuned for updates!
Update: Monday 2/9/15
David Hasselhoff wields a guitar like a scimitar in this undated photo. That Hasselhoff has never won a Grammy is as damning an indictment of the contemporary music industry as I have ever heard.First, allow me to invite you to my live-blogging event this evening starting at 8pm EST. I will be making snarky comments about the 2015 Grammy Awards and, I would imagine, lamenting the sorry state of the music industry. I will do so until I can take no more and/or I get tired. (You can make comments too, or reply to my comments.)
So, the weather: This is still feeling like a mainly rain event.
Rain will begin at or just before midnight. It will be mostly light. (The rain will be light. The sky will be dark until just after 7am Monday, when the sun will rise. Actually, the earth will rotate back around so the sun is again in view. Are you still reading this?)
Mixing will start around 8 or 9am - sleet will produce a slick coating on sidewalks and bridges, mainly. I don't see huge travel messes, but still, use caution. You could be driving, like, La-la-la, the road is just wet, there is no ice, I got this and then zzzzzoooop you slide a bit on an icy patch and you pee in your pants a little bit and white-knuckle it the rest of the way home.
Temperatures will hold steady right around freezing until 8-10pm, when they'll drop down below 30.
The last little bit of precipitation from this system--falling from about 4 to 8pm Monday--may even fall as some wet snow, accumulating a half-inch at most.
So my call for delays and whatnot:
Chance of delay Monday, 14%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 31%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 18%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 3%
Tuesday turns out sunny and a little bit breezy with highs in the mid 30s.
Wednesday, too.
Thursday is overcast with the chance of snow, but right now it just looks like scattered snow showers skirting the area.
Then it gets really cold with a low Thursday into Friday of 4 degrees, and a high on Friday of just 18 (and really windy too). Friday night into Saturday we could even see temperatures dip below zero (not wind chills, mind you; temperatures).
Balls-coldness continues right on through the weekend, actually, and we could see a bit of snow on Tuesday 2/17.
And then that's it, I think. No more winter.
Stay tuned for updates!
Sunday-Monday forecast
The lingering, excruciating, Brady Bunch-esque eye contact; the stache-mullet combo; the jumper; the sensible shoes; the bad dye job; the ill-fitting double-breasted suit; the pinky ring: this awkward family photo truly has it all.This looks like a mixed precipitation event for us, especially on the back end.
Sunday late afternoon we'll see some rain start. Temperatures will be at or above 40, so it will just be plain rain. And it's scattered showers, not a washout.
Sleet and wet snow mix in overnight Sunday into Monday. Monday morning commute could be dicey. Over all, though, I think this is mainly a rain event for us--with little to no accumulation or travel impacts.
(Northeast Pennsylvania and on into New England will get mostly snow with this storm.)
So my preliminary call is:
Chance of delay Monday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 20%
I don't see anything else for next week in terms of wintry precipitation or potential school delays/cancellations.
Stay tuned for updates as the storm's track and potency come into greater focus.
Post-storm concerns: flash freezing, flooding, slickness
First, the roads are crap: slushy and gross. And the snow is preventing drainage, so the rain will create ponding on roadways and isolated flooding.
And then the flash freeze (which is not "Freeze Frame" by J. Geils Band, though now that song is in your head).
Temperatures will begin falling from 36 around 1pm to 28 by 3pm ... to 20 by 6pm (sunset at 5:23pm will hurry along this precipitous drop) ... to 10 by Tuesday morning’s commute.
Untreated surfaces (like certain parking lots I schlopped through this morning) will have lots of ponding and slick surfaces due to rapid freezing. Use caution when driving this evening and tomorrow morning.
Chance of early dismissal Monday, 9.3%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 63.33%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 2.55%
Wednesday night into Thursday – some models see a storm but right now it’s just looking like flurries or light snow showers.
Something maybe on Sunday 2/8.
Stay tuned for updates...
Winter Storm Ψ: Saturday update!
So there are some variables at play with Winter Storm Ψ (pronounced psai, rhymes with "high" - you do pronounce the "p," but don't be obnoxious about it. Just a little hint of it. The faintest whiff of p. Wait, no.), including warmer air that may mix in aloft. Who gets all snow, and who gets snow-rain-snow? And who gets nothing? And what is a rhetorical question?
For Philly and the immediately northern and western suburbs, expect light snow to start by 5-6pm, then really gets going after 10pm. A bit of mixing (rain) toward the Monday AM commute, but this is not good news; rain will freeze to surfaces and actually serve to make travel even more hazardous. Precipitation transitions back to snow and tapers after noon on Monday. Accumulations for this region are 4-6 inches.
For south Jersey and Delaware, we'll see snow start about the same time as above, but the period of rain will be more extensive: about midnight to 6am. So because of this extended rain period, we'll see fewer travel delays and lower accumulations in this region (2-4 inches).
For Berks, Lehigh, and Schuylkill Counties--as well as much of north Jersey--we'll see almost all snow with a little bit of ice mixed in early Monday morning. Accumulations will be 6-8 inches (with isolated pockets getting higher amounts where heavy banding sets up).
For Punsxutawney, expect snow by the evening, with lake effect snow moving in by mid-day Sunday and continuing through Monday. Monday will begin with one disc-jockey annoying another by playing Sonny and Cher's "I Got You Babe." You will make idle chit-chat with the innkeeper, Ned Ryerson will stop you on the street, you will step in a puddle, you will make your way to Gobbler's Knob, you will drolly say, "This is one time when television really fails to capture the true excitement of a large squirrel predicting the weather." The blizzard that you predicted will miss us will actually shut down the interstate, stopping Larry, Rita, and Phil in the van. You will awaken the next day to "I Got You Babe" and do it all over again. Along the way, you'll become a piano virtuoso and ice sculptor.
Winds picking up (and temperatures dropping) throughout the day on Monday. Very windy and cold overnight from Monday into Tuesday with a low of, like, 0. (Tuesday morning commute wind chill: negative teens.)
Chance of delay Monday, 36.5%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 89.98%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 72.2%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 28.4%
It terms of future winter weather, I don't see anything potentially problematic until around mid-month.
Stay tuned for updates!
Winter Storm Ψ: Just the facts.
Ψ is the Greek letter "psi," the 23rd letter of the Greek alphabet. PSI (pounds per square inch) is also the unit of measurement for air pressure inside something inflated, like a football. (There is no measurement for overinflated egos.) And since the Super Bowl is the most overblown, underinflated event in our culture--matched only, perhaps, by the overhyped blizzard--it seemed apropos.
I just wanted to give you a sense of my thinking on the impending storm before the weekend; more precise timing, discussion of differences in regions, and fine-tuning will appear in updates between now and Sunday afternoon.
So here's what to expect on Sunday-Monday:
Light snow showers begin around 3-4pm Sunday. (Game time is 6:30pm EST, for your reference.) Steadier snow by 7 or 8pm. Snow continues overnight into Monday, beginning to taper off by about 3pm Monday.
Accumulations will generally be in the range of 6-8 inches.
Tuesday won't have any snow, but temperatures overnight from Monday into Tuesday will be the coldest of the season: lows around 0.
So my early calls for school percentages:
Chance of delay Monday, 31.4%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 88.8%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 62.1%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 21.7%
Stay tuned for updates!
A quick one about a quick one
I don't know these people--but I want to.The clipper: flurries / light snow showers could start as early as 3 or 4pm, but the snow won't begin in earnest until about 7 or 8pm or later. Snow off and on at night and overnight. Three-quarters of an inch to an inch and seven-eighths of total accumulation. Snow tapers by 4 or 5am.
Travel impacts will generally be minor, but tomorrow morning's commute could be a bit sketchy. Temps will be in the upper 20s, winds will be kicking up, there will be a bit of blowing snow, and wind chills will be in the teens.
Chance of delay Friday, 37.7%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 16.443%
Friday will turn out overcast and colder with highs in the upper 20s and overnight lows in the single digits (with wind chills below zero).
High on Saturday will only be 22. Sunday will be just as cold with a chance of snow Sunday evening into Monday morning. (More to come on that system, but right now I think it plays as a 3-4 inch event that delays schools on Monday.)
Even colder after that: high only in the teens on Monday and Tuesday, and it stays below freezing for the rest of next week.
Stay tuned for updates!
Winter Storm Ignacio.
Actually, The Weather Channel is calling it Iola, but I don't care for that name, and as you know, when I think something is misnamed--person, place, or thing--I will rechristen it. Nicole becomes Carolyn. Emily becomes Cindy. Quinn becomes Stanley. Jill becomes Kelsey. Brent becomes Brandon. Whatnot.
Snow arrives 10pm-midnight Friday. Surface temperatures will be right at or just above the freezing mark (32 for quick reference) throughout the storm, so it's going to be tricky predicting what type of precipitation will fall from place to place, hour to hour.
I am not punking out; I am just telling you what I'm up against.
Snow, then, beginning 10-12pm Friday and continuing through mid-morning Saturday, when it will mix briefly with sleet, then turn over to plain rain by noon, after which we'll see drizzle and flurries through mid-afternoon.
Total accumulation: I'm sticking with 3-4 inches for most of us (Berks, Lehigh, Bucks, Lancaster). Maybe an inch or two for Philly and South Jersey. Maybe a hair more--5 and three-quarters?--in Lebanon, Schuylkill, Northampton, Dauphin.
Travel impacts: Throughout Saturday morning, travel will be shitty over most of the region. Saturday afternoon and evening will be far better, then on Saturday night (after, say, 10 or 11pm) temperatures will fall back below freezing and slick spots will develop once again.
On Sunday night into Monday, we're looking at a clipper system moving through. It will accumulate only 2-3 inches generally, but (the way it looks now) the timing and overall balls-coldness (highs in the 20s with wind chills in the low teens--then falling throughout the day) will virtually guarantee a snow day.
Of course...
stay tuned for updates!