Monsoon's update - the lull...
Most area districts are closing early this morning, perhaps realizing that, given the snowfall, they might have been better served keeping everyone at home. Dismissal times are generally in the 11am - 12:30pm range.
This timing is particularly advantageous, as the snowfall lull is now upon us. From about 11am to 2 or 3pm, we'll have little or no snowfall to contend with. This should allow those with early dismissals to get home safely--and allow those stuck in school for a full day to get home safely as well.
The "back end" cranks up in the late afternoon and overnight. I am still thinking we're in for 8-10 inches tonight (on top of the 3-4 inches from this morning). Most of us should expect a foot of accumulation. Snow tapers after midnight.
Updated delay/cancellation percentages for Thursday coming soon...
Be sure to email me with snow totals and observations!
Monsoon's in-storm update
It's already snowing, and rather steadily, as of 7:30. (Actually, it was snowing by 4 or 5am, so it's not entirely clear why school is being held at all.)
There's a large area of moisture over us right now, but we'll get a break by late morning, when the precipitation tapers to scattered snow and rain showers. For a few hours in the afternoon, there will be little or no precipitation at all. This "first phase" of the storm will accumulate 2-3 inches.
The snow will crank back up as the beastly "back end" of the storm moves through late this afternoon and this evening, into the overnight hours. Look for accumulations of 6-8 inches from this portion of the storm, raising totals in some places to near a foot.
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 85%
Chance of delay Thursday, 90%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 75%
Monsoon's thinking on the midweek storm - Tuesday afternoon
Alright...it's time to make my final call on snow totals, timing, and school scheduling disruptions (though I may tweak the numbers a bit later this afternoon and/or tonight as new model guidance comes in). Here goes:
Light snow begins to fall by 8 or 9am Wednesday, mixing with freezing drizzle and showers by the early afternoon. I don’t see enough warm air to give us “plain rain” for any extended amount of time. The overwhelming majority of the precipitation we receive with this storm will be frozen.
Precipitation changes back to snow by late afternoon (4 or 5pm) and continues, heavy at times, until tapering early Thursday morning (by 5 or 6am at the latest).
Morning/afternoon accumulation will be an inch or so. The rain will result in a treacherous glaze on sidewalks and secondary roads; slush on major thoroughfares.
The “back end” (Wednesday late afternoon and evening) accumulation is the real wild card here. Given the moisture in this storm, as well as its likely track and duration, expect accumulations of 8-10 inches in Reading/Berks, Lancaster County, and the Lehigh Valley. Roads will become treacherous very quickly during this heavy snow, so it’s an especially good idea to stay home Wednesday evening and night.
Probability of cancellation Wednesday, 60% (administrators may foresee a travel nightmare for the afternoon and seek to avoid that by putting the ixnay on the school day. oolschay ayday. whatever.)
Probability of early dismissal Wednesday, 80% (more likely is that the light snow will arrive too late to influence administrators; when it arrives and travel conditions deteriorate, they will call early dismissals for noon or 1pm.)
Probability of (at least) a delay Thursday, 90% (most of us will be waking up with well over half a foot of snow on Thursday morning; it will take a while to dig out and clean up.)
Probability of cancellation Thursday, 75% (possible lingering snow showers early Thursday morning, strong winds, and falling temperatures--as well as persistently treacherous road conditions and transportation problems--may prompt administrators to bag the day altogether.)
Monsoon's thinking on the midweek storm - Monday afternoon
The picture of this week's storm is coming into sharper focus the closer we get to the event.
A bit. The track has shifted a bit westward and the atmospheric temperatures look like they'll stay down a bit longer.
Here's what I think:
Light snow begins sometime after midnight Tuesday night and continues into early Wednesday morning, becoming steadier toward mid-morning. This snow will accumulate only an inch or two before mixing with, then changing into, freezing rain. The result will be a slushy--and sometimes slippery--mess.
Then it gets interesting.
The "back end" of the storm--when the system begins to pull away and the precipitation changes back to snow--is when we could see more significant accumulations. It will also be blustery and colder behind the system. We could see totals of 8-10 inches in central PA, Berks, and the Lehigh Valley.
Probability of a delay on Wednesday: 60%
Probability of cancellation on Wednesday: 75%
Probability of an early dismissal on Wednesday: 40%
Probability of a delay on Thursday: 55%
Probability of cancellation Thursday: 30%
I'm looking at February 3rd-4th for another chance for snow...but let's take it one storm at a time.
Stay tuned for updates (tonight, tomorrow) on this Nor'easter as they become necessary.
Monsoon's thinking on the midweek storm - Sunday afternoon
This is a tough one.
Forecasters--at least in this age of technological advances and fancy equipment--are always told that the models are to be used as tools, not taken as gospel. ("Models" here refer to the alphabet soup of forecasting models, or computer-generated projections of what the weather will do days and sometimes even weeks ahead.) And yet a lot of forecasters seem to be taking model agreement on storm track, on the absence of adequate phasing, and on air temperature, as if they were writ by Mother Nature herself in her little daily planner.
Nay nay, say I.
The model composites suggest the following: the Nor'easter will follow an Eastern track, thus providing us here in the Berks forecast area only a glancing blow. Moreover, the dearth of moisture and the lack of cold air will mean that much of the precipitation that does fall will be in the form of rain.
Lots of time looms between now and the onset of the storm, so my thinking (and therefore, my forecast) is subject to change--maybe several times. But for now, today, this afternoon, this is what I think is going to happen:
A small clipper system will pass to our north on Monday night into Tuesday, sparing us any snowfall at all. Meanwhile, the Nor'easter will be forming off the Carolina coast. I think the track will shift slightly westward, but enough of the cold Canadian air will remain in the area that there will be little to no mixing. And it will be really windy.
The snow arrives Wednesday morning, becoming intense throughout the day and evening, and tapering to flurries overnight into Thursday. Expect accumulations in the 6-8 inch range, school cancellations on Wednesday, and delays on Thursday.
Did I mention that this forecast is subject to change? Because it is.
Stay tuned.
Monsoon on next week's potential baaaaaad mother-(shut yo mouth)
Already following that strange little storm system overnight--which gave a delay to some, converting a half-day into a nearly full day--the streets are abuzz with talk of a monster storm next week. So here's my initial take and a heads-up...
The GFS has a ton of moisture and a strongly defined closed low. Keep in mind that these models are only forecasting tools, but if this comes to fruition...oooo-wee!It's a classic Nor'easter setting up, most likely arriving early Tuesday morning and ending by Wednesday evening. Right now it looks as though it'll snow heavily throughout that period--with strong winds blowing the snow slantways and greatly diminishing visibility.
The forecast models are blowing this into a major storm, but there are several factors (including storm track, warm air aloft, and the amount of moisture available) that could mix the snow with rain or give us just a glancing blow.
Here's what I think: due to a trough of cold air settling into the area, I think this'll be all snow, at least for us in the Berks region. I also think it'll be a slow-moving system that has the potential to churn away over our area for up to 36 hours. The damage: two feet of snow and at least two more snow days.
But hey - there are 3 1/2 days between now and then, and a lot can change in that space for the reasons mentioned above. I'll be able to give a more definitive forecast on Sunday and/or Monday. Until then, it might not be a bad idea to reassess your travel schedule for Tuesday and Wednesday...just in case.
It's a complicated storm, and no one understands it but Monsoo-oon
Daaaaaaamn right.
Monsoon's Forecast: Thursday night / Friday and beyond...
Alright, my good people...here's my forecast:
Clouds increase throughout the day ahead of a storm system approaching from the west. Snow develops by 10 or 11pm tonight and tapers by 9 or 10am Friday. Some breaks of sunshine Friday afternoon as frigid arctic air moves in, plunging temperatures into the low teens overnight Friday to Saturday.
I've been vacillating a bit in terms of accumulation with this storm due to conflicting information regarding phasing (pulling moisture from another system/source to create a bigger storm) and snow ratio (the snow to liquid equivalent, which varies depending on surface temperature, wind speed, and other factors). But it's time to make up my damn mind. And so:
I'm downgrading the accumulation slightly to 4-6 inches...a bit more in NE Pennsylvania and the Poconos than in our area.
Possibility of at least a delay Friday: 95%
Possibility of cancellation Friday: 75%
Saturday and Sunday will feature variable cloudiness (sunnier on Saturday) with daytime highs only about 20 and overnight lows of about 6. (6!) Expect below-zero wind chills, especially on a breezy Saturday night. Apart from the famously crude idiom referencing a "brass bra," my favorite cold-weather sayings are "it's cold enough to freeze the nuts off a brass monkey" and "colder than a penguin's bollocks." "Cold as a banker's heart" is a good one, too, though it's a bit too pointed, and I would imagine that bankers aren't too partial to that one. Around the hallways here, the most popular manner in which to express this level of frigidity is "it's cold as balls, yo." Eloquence, it would seem, takes many forms.
Anyway: cold.
Next good chance for accumulating snow is Monday night into Tuesday, and this could be a bit more significant (in the 8-12 inch range at first blush). But that's more than 4 days away, and a lot could happen between now and then...
After that, we could be in for some more snow on February 2nd and 3rd.
Stay tuned this evening for updates when and if they become necessary...
Update at 9:50pm - light snow has begun to fall in the area. This fast-moving storm has caused me to make a few adjustments to the forecast:
Snow ends by 6 or 7am Friday. Accumulations will be in the 3-5 inch range.
Possibility of at least a delay Friday: 80%
Possibility of cancellation Friday: 60%
Monsoon
Monsoon's Tuesday night update: what about the rest of the week?
Two winter weather-makers in our immediate future to worry about...let's get right into it.
A bit of freezing drizzle or light snow showers are likely to move through the area overnight and into the early morning Wednesday - before 8 or 9am. Expect only a coating to an inch of accumulation at most. It appears now that the temperatures will fall a couple of degrees below freezing over most of the forecast area in the overnight hours. As a result, the morning commute - perhaps involving icy patches and a bit of snow - could be a bit dicey. Temperatures rise well into the mid 30s on Wednesday afternoon and the sun will peek through before another precipitous decline into the low 20s overnight into Thursday.
Thursday will be colder with increasing clouds. Temperatures will get only to 30, and the low overnight into Friday will be 22.
A model projection for Friday's storm. Please note that the greens at the center of the precipiation map do not indicate rain, but heavier snow.A snow storm enters the area very late Thursday night (arriving between 11pm Thursday and 1am Friday) and continues through early Friday afternoon. Right now I'm seeing about 5-7 inches of accumulation (it's snow; no mixing here) from this storm, but I will fine-tune the forecast and send out updates as the situation warrants.
Saturday and Sunday will be frigid: highs in the low 20s, lows in the single digits, with a stiff breeze.
More snow is possible on Monday, 1/24 and Friday, 1/28 as well. No, seriously.
And now, my school schedule percentages...
Possibility of delay Wednesday 1/19: 35%
Possibility of cancellation Wednesday 1/19: 15%
Possibility of early dismissal Thursday 1/20: 20%
Possiblity of at least a delay Friday 1/21: 90%
Possibility of cancellation Friday 1/21: 80%
Stay tuned for updates / tweakage!