Low temperatures = high snow ratios and decreased salt effectiveness
Let me tell you.
The temperatures, in case you haven't noticed, have been very low. It's 13 now, and it's going down to 10 overnight. Tomorrow's high will only be 22. This is significant for two especial reasons:
1. Low temperatures mean high snow ratios. The snow ratio is the amount of snow produced for every inch of liquid. So essentially it's a comparison between the snowfall amount vs. how much it would be if it fell as rain. A typical snow ratio is 10:1. This means that if 10 inches of snow melted, it would produce 1 inch of liquid. This storm will have snow ratios in the 15:1 or 20:1 range. Here we're looking at very dry, fluffy snow. So even with only, say, a half-inch of liquid, the accumulations will be in the range of 8-10 inches. (This is going to be the case with isolated pockets in Delaware and Maryland, but not for us here in Berks.)
2. Low temperatures also diminish the effectiveness of road salt. Road salt is most effective when the surface temperature is 20-30 degrees. When the surface (the road) gets down to 15 degrees and below, the effectiveness of road salt falls off dramatically. Which means that when it's very cold, the roads will become snow-packed and treacherous more quickly, and the snow that accumulates cannot be cleared as easily. (Salters and plowers, correct me here if I am mistaken.)
Just a little background there to give you some context. Information: it's what Monsoon is all about!™
Expect snow to start around here by about 10 or 11pm, with the heaviest action falling after midnight.
Snow begins to taper by 8 or 9am and will end altogether by 10 or 11am Tuesday. And then skies will clear gradually throughout the day.
MY CALL:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 93%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 71%
A publicity still from a 1988 German-made madcap comedy called Starke Zeiten (roughly, Groovy Times) that stars Hasselhoff as an American scientist who tries to dupe a Saudi Arabian dude, and has a monkey wearing human clothes. I have not seen this Zugunglück (train wreck), but I will not rest until I do.Overcast with scattered snow showers on Wednesday morning, possibly resulting in delays (but probably not cancellations).
And then Thursday looks fine. Ass-cold, but fine. High of only 12.
Friday morning will be like a recursion of this morning: the temperature will get down to -4, and the wind chills will approach -20. So a cold-weather delay on Friday looks like again.
The weekend looks nice, though! Shit, wait. Snow possible on Saturday and Sunday, with some sleet mixed in on Saturday night.
Stay tuned for updates!
I forgot to say what accumulations I expected. (Thank you to my favorite lawyer-turned-teacher, Alison Clark, for hipping me to that omission.)
Delaware, Maryland, South Jersey: 6-8 inches
Philadelphia, Chester, Lancaster, Delaware, and Montomgery Counties, as well as NYC: 4-6 inches
Berks: 3-5 inches (Note: this will likely be the cutoff area, so some in Berks may get 2 or 3 inches, but others may get 4 or 5. Unlike in most storms, accumulations will actually be higher in the south.)
Lehigh Valley, Schuylkill County, Poconos, North Jersey: 2-4 inches
Eff this effing wind.
This asshole-y wind has already begun to subside (20mph with gusts of 30mph, down from 30/50 earlier). Temperatures have stayed low, though: it's 12 as I type this (4:10pm) and it's only going to fall this evening and overnight.
By just before daybreak on Monday, the temperature will be -3 and the wind chill will be -25. That's just ridiculously, obnoxiously cold. It's like, Hey, winter, we get it. It's cold. Move on.
Wind chills will be below zero all day Monday, popping above zero in the late afternoon. High of 16 that day. And then snow at night!
Flurries and light snow showers may develop by 8 or 9pm Monday night, but the steadier/heavier snow will fall after about midnight/1am. Snow begins to taper by 8 or 9am Tuesday, but doesn't end altogether until maybe 11am. Accumulation: 2-4 inches.
Snow showers on Wednesday morning as another front moves through, but this will amount to nothing (either in terms of delays/cancellations or in terms of accumulation).
And then Thursday looks like a carbon copy of today: very windy with daytime temperatures getting into the teens, then overnight lows below zero. (And wind chills, again, approaching -20.)
Friday turns out cold (highs near 20, that's it) but with subsiding wind.
And then the weekend looks a bit milder, but potentially snowy. So damn.
That's it, then. After the weekend of February 21st/22nd, winter is over. No more snow or drifting snow or nad-rattling wind chills. No more.
Oh! The percentages. Here:
Chance of delay Monday 2/16..........85%
Chance of cancellation Monday 2/16..........61%
Chance of delay Tuesday 2/17..........88%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday 2/17..........54%
Chance of delay Wednesday 2/18..........16%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday..........6%
Chance of delay Thursday..........59%
Chance of cancellation Thursday..........22%
Chance of delay Friday..........41%
Chance of cancellation Friday..........12%
Stay tuned for updates!
The next few days.
No toddlers were harmed in the making of this .gif.I have some forecasting for you people.
First, on Saturday, we have a clipper to contend with - and it's looking a little juicier than I previously thought. It'll be one of those nuisance storms that gives some people a mere coating and some up to 2.3 inches, depending on where heavier banding sets up. Look for scattered light snow showers late morning and early afternoon; then in the late afternoon and early evening, some areas will see heavier squalls. So if you're out and about tomorrow, keep an eye on the radar. And, you know, the actual sky.
Light snow showers and flurries taper by late Saturday night.
This kid was a little sore for a few days and his elbow still hurts when it rains.Following that action, we're going to see temperatures plunge and the winds really, really, really kick up. Really. By early Sunday morning, winds will be 30-35mph (sustained) with gusts of 50mph! That's a lot of wind. Watch for power outages and downed limbs/wires from the wind. And wind chills will be in the negative teens pretty much all day Sunday.
Everyone's fine. Well, that last person in the furry hood, maybe a smidge of lingering headaches and blurry vision.Overnight into Monday's commute, we'll see winds a little bit weaker, but temperatures will dip to -2. Wind chills will be about -20. You think you know cold? Right now (9pm Friday) it's 20 degrees with light wind. So it'll feel about 35 degrees colder than it feels right now. Put that in your pipe, and the horse you rode in on. Something like that.
And it only gets up to 15 degrees on Monday.
Chance of delay Monday, 80%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 38%
Tuesday (actually late Tuesday into Wednesday) still brings a chance of snow, but the latest model guidance suggests that the snow is heading out to sea.
After that, it gets a little bit less prickishly frigid.
Stay tuned for updates!
IT WILL BE COLD. (Seriously.)
I know I am known for my dramatics and hyperbole. Example: it was not just a boring meeting; it was the most soul-numbingly soporific gathering in this history of humanity. I did not simply have to wait twenty minutes in line at the deli counter at Giant; I died in that line having only been teased with the faint whiff of baked meats. And no one noticed, because they had all collapsed too.
It's gloriously-named former All-Pro linebacker Coy Bacon (no relation to the actor Kevin Bacon), who was briefly teammates with Boobie Clark in Cincinnati, making them the wackiest-named duo of teammates in the history of organized activities.But I am serious, you-all: it is going to be cold in the next week. Like, the coldest temperatures of the year. Like, even people from Fargo, North Dakota, would be, like, Oh yah, don't ya know, it's frickin' cold here. I'm goin' home and heatin' up a casserole.
First issue is that we could see some slippery spots tomorrow morning as temperatures get down to the low 20s and untreated surfaces refreeze. It's not a huge hazard, but it could be enough for scattered delays.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 22%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 6%
Thursday is cloudy with a few snow showers in the afternoon. Just a coating from this, but we could see some travel issues on the Thursday evening commute.
Friday is the start of that arctic cold I was talking about. We start the day in the lower teens with wind chills in the -5 to -10 range. We only get into the upper teens in the afternoon, with wind chills in the 0 to +5 range.
Chance of cold-weather delay Friday, 16%
Chance of cold-weather cancellation Friday, 3%
Saturday will be overcast and cold (but not quite as cold): highs in the mid 20s and windy (but not quite as windy). Wind chills will be in the teens during the day. Then a blast of arctic holy-shit cold will move in. Lows overnight from Saturday to Sunday will be about 8 with wind chills in the -10 to -15 range. Also, snow is likely on Saturday, but right now it looks like flurries and snow showers that won't amount to much.
Sunday, you've got to be kidding me. The high on Sunday is going to be 16. Really windy too, just for shits and giggles. (Which reminds me of something my Nana used to say, a cautionary proverb, if you will: "It's all shits and giggles until someone giggles and shits." She was a woman of refined expression and profound wisdom.)
Overnight Sunday into Monday, son of a bitch, the actual temperatures are going to get down to -3. Is it still going to be windy, Monsoon? You bet your frozen ass it is. Well then what is that going to do to the wind chills? The wind chills on Monday morning will be -25 to -30.
Monday is only going get into the mid teens (with wind chills around zero). So I think:
Chance of cold-weather delay Monday, 77%
Chance of cold-weather cancellation Monday, 40%
And then Tuesday is another potential storm, but I literally can't even.
Then on Wednesday and Thursday, we punch through the arctic malaise with a tropical blast that will send temperatures skyrocketing into the upper 20s and low 30s.
Stay tuned for updates!
Icy slippingness.
That is a Members Only jacket with the sleeves pushed up over the sleeves of his turtleneck. And that is a generous-sized belt buckle you see. And that is a smoldering glower daring you to say what you are thinking.Freezing rain, slippery walkways, and treacherous back roads have made an early dismissal that seemed pointless mid-afternoon seem prescient.
We'll see up to a half-inch of ice accumulation on cars and untreated surfaces in most places. Light sleet (but mostly snow) will continue between now (about 7pm) and 1 or 2am. Roads will still be slippery early tomorrow, particularly during the morning commute (before the sun comes up). So...
Chance of delay Tuesday, 64%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 21%
Snow showers are possible late Wednesday night through Thursday night as another clipper comes through. Then it gets super cold. The wind chills will be well below zero. Overnight lows Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday night, Sunday night, AND Monday night will be in the single digits.
A few snow showers on Saturday 2/14, and then a more substantial snow event is possible on Tuesday 2/17. After Thursday evening (2/12), I don't see temperatures going above freezing until 2/19! That's at least a week below zero. So yeah.
Stay tuned for updates!
Update: Monday 2/9/15
David Hasselhoff wields a guitar like a scimitar in this undated photo. That Hasselhoff has never won a Grammy is as damning an indictment of the contemporary music industry as I have ever heard.First, allow me to invite you to my live-blogging event this evening starting at 8pm EST. I will be making snarky comments about the 2015 Grammy Awards and, I would imagine, lamenting the sorry state of the music industry. I will do so until I can take no more and/or I get tired. (You can make comments too, or reply to my comments.)
So, the weather: This is still feeling like a mainly rain event.
Rain will begin at or just before midnight. It will be mostly light. (The rain will be light. The sky will be dark until just after 7am Monday, when the sun will rise. Actually, the earth will rotate back around so the sun is again in view. Are you still reading this?)
Mixing will start around 8 or 9am - sleet will produce a slick coating on sidewalks and bridges, mainly. I don't see huge travel messes, but still, use caution. You could be driving, like, La-la-la, the road is just wet, there is no ice, I got this and then zzzzzoooop you slide a bit on an icy patch and you pee in your pants a little bit and white-knuckle it the rest of the way home.
Temperatures will hold steady right around freezing until 8-10pm, when they'll drop down below 30.
The last little bit of precipitation from this system--falling from about 4 to 8pm Monday--may even fall as some wet snow, accumulating a half-inch at most.
So my call for delays and whatnot:
Chance of delay Monday, 14%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 31%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 18%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 3%
Tuesday turns out sunny and a little bit breezy with highs in the mid 30s.
Wednesday, too.
Thursday is overcast with the chance of snow, but right now it just looks like scattered snow showers skirting the area.
Then it gets really cold with a low Thursday into Friday of 4 degrees, and a high on Friday of just 18 (and really windy too). Friday night into Saturday we could even see temperatures dip below zero (not wind chills, mind you; temperatures).
Balls-coldness continues right on through the weekend, actually, and we could see a bit of snow on Tuesday 2/17.
And then that's it, I think. No more winter.
Stay tuned for updates!
Sunday-Monday forecast
The lingering, excruciating, Brady Bunch-esque eye contact; the stache-mullet combo; the jumper; the sensible shoes; the bad dye job; the ill-fitting double-breasted suit; the pinky ring: this awkward family photo truly has it all.This looks like a mixed precipitation event for us, especially on the back end.
Sunday late afternoon we'll see some rain start. Temperatures will be at or above 40, so it will just be plain rain. And it's scattered showers, not a washout.
Sleet and wet snow mix in overnight Sunday into Monday. Monday morning commute could be dicey. Over all, though, I think this is mainly a rain event for us--with little to no accumulation or travel impacts.
(Northeast Pennsylvania and on into New England will get mostly snow with this storm.)
So my preliminary call is:
Chance of delay Monday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 20%
I don't see anything else for next week in terms of wintry precipitation or potential school delays/cancellations.
Stay tuned for updates as the storm's track and potency come into greater focus.
Little one tonight, bigger one Sunday?
Just a little clipper on the way - will only bring us a half-inch to inch of light snow. Timing is the potential problem: 2am to 10am, which means it could eff up the morning commute. Temperatures will fall from 32 around midnight to 20 by noon on Thursday, then to 10 by midnight on Thursday, then to 5 by 6am Friday, then to -25 by Friday at noon.
That last one, I made up.
Chance of delay Thursday, 42%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 17%
Chance of delay Friday, 22%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 6%
Preliminary call for delay Monday, 75%
Preliminary call for cancellation Monday, 39%
Warmer on Saturday, though. High of 36.
Then maybe some snow from late Sunday evening into Monday afternoon. Details are up in the air (weather pun intended!) but right now I'd say 3-6 inches of accumulation.
A couple more potential storms next week bear watching.
Keep tuned in! I mean, stay tuned for updates!