Monsoon on midweek storm, delay and cancellation projections
Tonight will be extremely cold with lows getting down into the single digits, and temperatures will only be in the teens well through Monday morning rush, so all the meltage from today will be well frozen over. Use caution and see my cancellation/delay predictions below…
Here are some central and southeastern Pennsylvania weekend storm totals per readers:
|
Brookhaven |
26.5” |
|
Adamstown |
20” |
|
Littlestown |
26” |
|
Lancaster |
19” |
|
Kirkwood |
24” |
|
Douglassville |
18” |
|
Norristown |
23” |
|
Sinking Spring |
18” |
|
Nolde Forest |
22.5” |
|
Myerstown |
18” |
|
New Cumberland |
22” |
|
North Wales |
18” |
|
Shillington |
21” |
|
State College |
15” |
|
Upper Merion |
21” |
|
Temple |
11” |
Believe it or not, before we can even catch our collective breath from the walloping we took from the weekend blizzard, another system is poised to affect our area on Tuesday into Wednesday. Here’s the forecast…
Snow develops mid- to late-afternoon Tuesday, light at first. Intensifying by 8pm, then continuing overnight and into late Wednesday afternoon, tapering to scattered snow showers Wednesday evening. (The bulk of the snowfall is early Wednesday morning through early Wednesday afternoon, and watch for high winds on Wednesday as well.)
Though model guidance is not yet in agreement, my call is that we’ll see 8 to 10 inches out of this storm—maybe even a foot. On top of the snow totals from this weekend’s blizzard, that would be positively crippling.
Revised cancellation/delay predictions for the coming week:
Monday 2/8: Cancellation 60%; Delay 85%. (It’s just nasty out there, and lots of roads are still snow-covered. Many families in our districts are dealing with 1 ½ to 2 feet of snow will insufficient resources to deal with the onslaught. Even with the melting that happened today thanks to the brilliant sunshine, frigid temperatures overnight will cause “black ice” on even the clearest of surfaces.)
Tuesday 2/9: Cancellation 10%; Delay 15%; Early dismissal 25%. (The snow will not begin in earnest until Tuesday evening, so I don’t really see that an early dismissal will become necessary. Then again, I didn’t think we at Mifflin would get an early dismissal on Friday, either…)
Wednesday 2/10: Cancellation 85%; Delay 20%. (Unless the timing or storm track change dramatically, a delay just wouldn’t make sense. A cancellation, on the other hand, would.)
Thursday 2/11: Cancellation 40%; Delay 90%. (Wind and temperatures again in the teens overnight into Thursday could lead to a treacherous Thursday-morning commute.)
Friday 2/12: Cancellation 15%; Delay 20%. (It’ll still be cold, but temperatures may inch above freezing. It’s a relief, too, because otherwise Mifflin’s Act 80 full day on Friday would be disrupted…)
Stay tuned for updates/tweakage on this forecast.
Monsoon makes Hasselhoff discovery
My good people,
First, let me say that I realize the recent dramatic uptick in Hasselhovian content on my weblog may have been a little much to take--particularly as my latest Hoff post provided a nearly unfiltered gaze into the fantastical (and fanatical) workings of my mind.
And yet, I beg your indulgence for one more moment or two.
For in my internet travels, I discovered a six-part reality/documentary series called "Meet the Hasselhoffs" which ran on Britain's Living channel beginning in September 2009. In the series, David and his Hoffspring (daughters Hayley and Taylor-Ann) travelled to England and pal around with popular British disc jockey Scott Mills, who takes them on all sorts of wild adventures.
It's all you could hope or want from such a show, and it provides a sort of preview of what we can expect from the upcoming A&E Hoff-centered reality show. Episode 1, Part 1 appears embedded below; the further segments can be found in the related video sidebar at the YouTube page.
Monsoon's Weekend Blizzard Debriefing; Look Ahead to Next Storm
Now that’s what I call a frickin’ snowstorm. My predictions were admittedly conservative, and it turned out that the projected totals were low by as many as six to eight inches in some places. And New York City didn’t get a damned thing.
But wow. Bunk has been traipsing and galumphing through shoulder-deep snow in the backyard and returning to the house with frosty little snow blossoms caked to his coat.
Snow totals, based on my own observations and unofficial reports around the region:
Allentown, extreme northern Berks, and points north, 8-12 inches
Northern Lancaster County, central and southern Berks, 18-20 inches
Philadelphia and immediate suburbs, DC, Baltimore, 24-26 inches; a bit more in some areas
Delaware, northern Maryland, extreme northern Virginia, and extreme southern Pennsylvania, well over 24 inches. Up to 30 inches have been reported in some areas, and there have even been measurements that exceed 2 ½ feet. Boggles the mind.
[Please email me with your storm totals and locations and I’ll post them on my next weblog entry.]
The view out my window toward the deck at 7:30 this morning, before the snow was even finished
Even though the snow has ended across the forecast area by mid-afternoon Saturday, ongoing problems from this storm will be continuing strong winds, which will result in drifting (we have a couple of two-foot drifts here at Monsoon Central), collapsed roofs, downed power lines, and fallen limbs, trees and shrubbery. The temperature will dip into the lower teens tonight, sending the accumulated snowfall into a deep freeze.
Sunday 2/7: partly sunny with moderate winds; high 29, low 11.
Monday 2/8: plenty of sunshine and cold; high 32, low 16.
Tuesday 2/9: cloudy with snow possible (discussed below); high 31, low 25.
Wednesday 2/10: cloudy with considerable winds and lingering snow possible (see below); high 28, low 19.
Thursday 2/11 and Friday 2/12: partly to mostly sunny and milder with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the upper teens.
Saturday 2/13: a bit of snow possible, but nothing like this monster.
A bit of a thaw may be in store by the 20th to the 22nd.
Most forecasters (including this one) have been paying little attention to the Tuesday-Wednesday event, having been preoccupied for some days with this blizzard. But on first blush, here’s my call: the snow begins Tuesday afternoon and continues intermittently through the evening and overnight. Some flurries or snow showers may linger into Wednesday. The snow will not be nearly as heavy as the event that just wrapped up, but I think it’ll leave 4 to 6 inches of accumulation in Berks and northern Lancaster Counties.
All of this—the blizzard, the drifting, the historic storm totals, and the midweek storm—make for a potentially shaky schedule this week. Here are my calls…
Monday 2/8: Cancellation 60%; Delay 80%. (I can see the buses trying to navigate some of the far reaches of my district, unplowed and heavily drifted, and it’s not pretty.)
Tuesday 2/9: Cancellation 30%; Delay 15%; Early Dismissal 40%.
Wednesday 2/10: Cancellation 55%; Delay 75%.
Thursday 2/11: Cancellation 10%; Delay 20%.
As always, stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon's Weekend Snow Update
Arrival looks like 2-3pm (and then it will be light, wet snow that will—since surface temps will be above freezing—melt on contact with the roadway). The real driving hazards will come in the evening when the temperature drops below freezing and black ice develops—and, of course, when the snow intensifies toward 7-8pm. Heaviest snow in our area will fall overnight, from about 12midnight to 4am. Snow is over by about 6 or 7pm Saturday evening.
Considering all that, I’m downgrading the chance of an early school dismissal for the Reading-Lancaster area to 25%. (If we were in Virginia or even Maryland, I think we’d be getting out early.)
A blizzard is defined by the National Weather Service as a storm sustained winds or frequent gusts of at least 35mph, resulting in drifting snow and less than a quarter-mile visibility for more than three hours. We’ll have winds of 15-20mph with gusts up to 30mph overnight and into Saturday morning, so that nearly qualifies. (Places closer to the shores will have actual blizzard conditions due to strong coastal winds.) Visibility will be a problem too.
Projected storm totals:
Delaware, Maryland, Baltimore-D.C. area…20-24 inches.
Philadelphia, southern Chester and Lancaster Counties, central Jersey… 14-18 inches.
Philadelphia’s northern and western suburbs, Reading and Berks, northern Lancaster County, York and Harrisburg…8-12 inches.
Allentown and northern New Jersey, as well as New York City…6 inches.
Poconos and extreme north Jersey…2-4 inches.
Totals may be higher in some spots due to “thundersnow” or heavy bands of precipitation in which 2-3 inches may fall in a single hours. And in any case, depth will be difficult to ascertain given the extensive drifting.
I will send storm updates this weekend as necessary…
Have fun and please—consider staying off the roads for tonight and much of tomorrow if you can. If you must drive, use the utmost caution.
Monsoon's Snowcast for Friday to Saturday
Monsoon’s SnowTable Deluxe
Berks – Lancaster, Friday 2/5/10 to Saturday 2/6/10
Stay tuned this evening or tomorrow morning for updates when and if they're needed...
|
STARTS |
Early afternoon Friday, light snow |
|
ENDS |
Heaviest snow overnight into Saturday morning; tapering by late afternoon Saturday |
|
RATE |
Light to moderate through 7pm Friday; heavy overnight; moderate Saturday morning & afternoon; light through rest of afternoon |
|
DRIVING |
Potentially slippery Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon; high winds and drifting will reduce visibility on Saturday & Saturday night. Even Sunday morning may be dicey after a refreeze. Bottom line: stay in |
|
MIX |
Maybe a bit at the coasts; for us, there should be no mixing. Expect heavy, wet snow |
|
AMOUNT |
Track has shifted a bit south, but we’ll still see significant accumulation here. The conservative call is 6-10 inches with a bit more possible in isolated areas |
|
ELSEWHERE |
Philadelphia and points south—as well as Chester and southern Lancaster Counties, and places in northern Delaware and Maryland—can expect 14-18 inches of accumulation, and a bit more in isolated spots; central Pennsylvania and points north will receive a bit less than we will in Reading/Lancaster (maybe 4-6 inches) |
|
BUST |
“Bust potential” – the chance we could get little or no snow – is fairly low for this one, but a shift in storm track farther to the south could result in only 5-6 inches |
|
AFTERMATH |
Drifting throughout Saturday and freezing overnight (temperatures will get into the teens) will make things potentially dicey. Temperatures won’t rise above freezing until late next week, so this won’t be going away anytime soon |
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SCHOOL |
Early dismissal Friday: 40% Delay Monday: 30% |
|
NEXT ONE |
Tuesday night into Wednesday; not a huge storm, but timing could result in school closures |
|
STAY TUNED |
For updates later today and Friday morning when and if my thinking changes |
Snow potential update: tonight and this weekend
I’ll get right into it.
Tuesday night to Wednesday morning storm: clouds develop throughout the day today; flurries and brief snow showers may appear as early as 5pm. The bulk of the precipitation from about 8 or 9pm tonight through about 5 or 6am tomorrow morning. The snow will generally be light and intermittent, so we shouldn’t expect huge accumulations here: a half-inch to an inch and a half. There may be a bit of slipperiness on the roads, but this is a wetter snow (falling onto a higher-temperature surface) than what we saw last Thursday morning, so many major roads should just be wet. Still, some back roads and untreated surfaces could be dicey.
Possibility of cancellation Wednesday: 10%
Possibility of delay Wednesday: 45%
Friday into Saturday storm: this thing has the potential to be big. A massive area of moisture is poised to affect the region on Friday evening into Saturday morning. A lot will depend on the storm track, but unlike the storm that just grazed Pennsylvania this past weekend, the track sets up somewhat more favorably for us. If it all falls right, we could be looking at a storm comparable in size to December 19th. I’ll keep an eye on it and send updates as this thing comes into clearer focus…
This massive area of moisture has the potential to affect our area with a significant winter storm on Friday into Saturday.
Monsoon's quick update re: February snow potential
Just a few words about the next couple of weeks and what they could bring in terms of wintry precipitation. After all, February is the snowiest month of the year in this area (though in some locales nearby, January edges it out). Here’s what to expect…
Tuesday 2/2 to Wednesday 2/3: I’m looking at a moisture-starved system winging by from Tuesday evening to the Wednesday morning rush hour. Overwhelming evidence suggests that we’ll see just intermittent snow showers and flurries, but there’s a chance we could get a couple inches. I’ll update if I develop any more certainty about what we’re in store for.
Friday 2/5 to Sunday 2/7: Another round of moisture comes through from the south and west late Friday night through Sunday afternoon. Right now, model guidance is scattered on the track and intensity of the snow we might see. My best educated guess is that we’ll see snow showers on Saturday and Sunday with low accumulations and driving hazards only on Saturday night. Some rain could mix in, particularly as temperatures rise on Sunday.
Sunday 2/14 to Monday 2/15: The middle of February has historically been an active period (think, especially, 2003), and it looks like this year will be no different. There are indications that we could see a blockbuster around this time.
Stay tuned for updates…and as always, thanks for reading!
Hasselhoff to star in new television show; Monsoon on tenterhooks
It’s been some time since I’ve mentioned the World’s Greatest Entertainer in this space—in fact, I had to go back to my pre-blogging days (when I used to send out my ramblings via email newsletter) to find any sustained discussion of this man. Well, it’s about damned time I brought you the latest about this living legend.
I am talking, of course, about David Michael Hasselhoff.
I’m not sure why it’s been so long since I have done a Hoff-focused piece. Maybe it was the video of his drunk, incoherent, and shirtless self, seated on the floor of a hotel room, trying in pathetic vain (and with plainly impaired dexterity) to consume a burger—a video shot by his daughter and reportedly released by his ex-wife—that kept me mum.
A still frame from the video in question; despite appearances, I SWEAR TO YOU that burger is going in and not coming up.
Maybe I was moved to silence by his several-season stint on the putrid, overblown NBC summer freakfest “American’s Got Talent”—which could not even by redeemed by his élan, his witticisms, or The Hoff’s annual live performance which would be the highlight of each season finale. (Here's a video clip of last year's performance.)
But, friends, Der Hasselhunk is about to break out the box—in a big way. He is poised to, once again, take his rightful place atop the entertainment throne.
Two weeks ago, Sir David, Knight of Hard Bodies announced that he was leaving “America’s Got Talent” in order to “be able to follow my dream to do my own TV show, which will be announced very shortly,” as he told the grey lady of gossip rags, People Magazine. “AGT” has already hired the wanky baldster Howie Mandel, formerly of the dimwitted game show “Deal or No Deal,” as Hasselhoff’s replacement.
[Tongues were wagging straight away in speculation that Hasselhott was actually fired from “AGT” for being drunk on the job, and these naysayers pointed to recent struggles he’s had with alcoholism as proof. Why else, the thinking goes, would he quit a top-ranked summer show at the height of its popularity? But of his three hospitalizations last year purportedly for alcohol poisoning—in May, September, and November 2009—only one was verifiably tied to his drinking.]
I reject this wanton conjecture, this scurrilous scandalmongering, my good people, and choose instead to focus on the future: David Hasselhoff will soon be on the TEE-vee in his very own show. It got me to thinking…what might this show be? Or is it still in development? Or is he entertaining several competing offers?
I hereby breathlessly offer here my top pitches for Hasselhovian television programming:
“Hoff the Cuff.” In the tradition of “Shatner’s Raw Nerve” on the Biography Channel starring the “Star Trek” and “Private Practice” star, this series will feature awkward, one-on-one conversations between the Hasselhost and his celebrity subject. Suggestions for interview subjects include Luke Perry, Neil Diamond, Kiefer Sutherland, and Stephen Hawking. (You see, given his egomania, it’s important to find guests with whom Hasselhoff can bond over a common trait or experience. In the above list, it’s having perfect hair; gaining wild popularity as a musician and international sex symbol; starring in a number-one action-adventure series; and employing a staggering intelligence to probe the mysteries of theoretical cosmology and spatial relativity.)
A remake, or more accurately a continuation, of the show “Baywatch Nights.” This criminally underrated series spun the Mitch Buchannon “Baywatch” lifeguard by day into a private detective by night. It co-starred Angie Harmon, Lou Rawls, and Gregalan Williams and was really rather good. The show sought to embody the casual sensibilities of the greatest detective show ever (“The Rockford Files”) in an L.A.-after-dark milieu. They could even bring back Angie Harmon (even though she’s a Republican who had publicly said she’d support Sarah Palin for President in 2012) and Gregalan Williams, though Lou Rawls has been unavailable since his death in 2006.
“Get it Hoff your Chest.” A double pun here in the title, since Hunk-o-hoff is renowned for his barrel chest, his rock-hard pecs, and the lustrous fur that adorns his torso. This is a talk show—which may seem like a step backward for Hasselhoff, but it comes with a twist: anyone willing to come on the show and confess to a betrayal or outright crime on-air will be eligible to win a prize. The David will employ his trademark tact and sensitivity to shepherd the guests through the resultant emotional minefield.
“Show Hoff.” Ordinary people are invited on to show the extraordinary things they can do: play “Yankee Doodle” on a nostril flute; stilt-walk through an out-of-control bonfire; perform an eye operation blindfolded and only using one’s feet; perform a flawless rendition of Beethoven’s Symphony No. 5 using only flatulent and eructative emanations. It’s kind of a cross between “The Gong Show,” “That’s Incredible!” and “America’s Got Talent,” except “Show Hoff” would have the good sense not to cheapen the word “talent” by applying it to a family of Irish dancers (or more impressively, would not even allow said dancers through the stage door).
“Piss Hoff!” On BBC. It’s a hidden camera show, hosted and orchestrated by Hasselhoff, on which the marks can earn money and prizes by keeping their cool in the face of pranksters and provocateurs. Kind of a cross between “Punk’d” and MTV’s “Boiling Points.”
“Hoff by That Much.” It’s a sitcom, which is the one performance genre Hasselhoff has yet to conquer. In this series—about a divorced, 40-something (he can pass for it!) dad raising six troubled foster kids on his own—David will display a razor-sharp sense of comedic timing and earn near-universal praise for his chops. Liam Neeson will stun Hollywood by accepting the role of Hoff’s zany, eccentric neighbor Herman; Lorraine Bracco shines as Hasselhoff’s tart-tongued ex-wife and (in a madcap twist) boss at the ad agency where he works.
Yet another spin-off (or here, spin-hoff?) of the CSI franchise. This one is called “CSI: Pasadena” and stars Hasselhoff as the lead investigator, Meshach Taylor (of “Designing Women” and Mannequin semi-fame) as his saucy partner, and Nancy McKeon (of “The Facts of Life” and subsequently, of made-for-television movies) as the sassy forensic lab technician and Hoff’s on-again-hoff-again love interest. I smell a hit!
A reality show in the vein of “Denise Richards: It’s Complicated” and “Being Bobby Brown” entitled “Don’t Hassel the Hoff.” (The title comes from a popular t-shirt featuring his moniker, which he co-opted for the American release of his autobiography back in 2006. The series will air on A&E or TV Land and will feature the dizzying day-to-day hi-jinks and manufactured crises that comprise his “real” life, plus a generous helping of his daughters (ages 19 and 17) as they embark on teen-pop careers, aided by their ultra-supportive dad. Possible alternate titles include “Hoff and Running,” “Hoff the Hook,” and the simple, yet elegant, “Hasselhoff.”
Of course, when he made his announcement, he very coyly failed to specify whether the show would be featured on American television. It could be that he’ll be the star of a new series to be aired where his genius is most appreciated: Germany. Of course, he’d have to pick up a little bit more of the language, but he’s got it in him. Here are some very real possibilities…
“Hoffnung.” This word—which bears an etymological kinship to its star’s moniker—literally means “Hope.” The David will host a one-hour series inspired by the likes of “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” and the Make-a-Wish Foundation. In it, he will visit the moderately depressed and slightly challenged, easing their minor troubles by singing them songs and shadowing them for a week. Each participant gets an “I’m with the Hoff” t-shirt—in Germany, it might be rendered “Ich spaziergang mit den Hoff”—to commemorate the easing of his or her vague malaise or nagging toe-ache.
“Hoff Tanztastisch!” This word blends the verb tanzen (to dance) with the adjective fantasticsch (take a guess) to produce the delightful title of this song-and-dance variety show. Featuring guest comedians, actors, and entertainers from the bustling world of German show business, “Tanztastisch!” will contractually include at least two full-length performances by The Hoff—one auf Deutsch—and at least eight minutes of airtime picturing The Pecsational One with his tucked shirt unbuttoned to the navel, revealing his hairy chest.
“Der Hasselhoff Verschiedenartigkeitsspektakel.” This translates to “The Hasselhoff Variety Show” and is essentially an alternate title for the show described above.
“Haariges Hoffbrust mit den Glänzender Schönheit.” It’s a refinement of the variety hour, more pointedly sensual and more demographically specific. The title translates roughly to “Hairy Hoff-Chest with the Glistening Beauty” and will consist of nothing but a full hour of … what the title describes.
“Der Fall der Berliner Mauer.” This show, which translates to “The Fall of the Berlin Wall,” grows out of Hasselhoff’s own oft-repeated claims that he felled the Berlin Wall with his 1989 concert there. (The concert was actually right after the wall fell, but his single “Looking for Freedom” was at the top of the German charts at the time it came down. So clearly he has a claim.) Anywho, in this lighthearted homage twenty years on, David counsels troubled couples—one of whom grew up in West Berlin, one in East Berlin—and helps them tear down the wall of anger that divides them. It could work.
Breaking news, for those few of you who are actually still reading this: Last week it was announced that, in fact, David Hasselhoff will be starring in an as-yet-untitled new reality series on A&E which will follow his life and his daughters’ burgeoning pop careers. The series will begin airing sometime later in 2010.
I cannot wait.