Winter Weather Update: overnight, late-week, and beyond...
I suspected this was going to be a crazy week in terms of winter weather, and tonight's extended period of sleet mixed with snow is confirming that suspicion. I think we'll see a changeover to rain at some point overnight, but road conditions Tuesday morning may be somewhat slick. Watch for a few snow showers late Tuesday afternoon or evening, maybe giving us a coating of snow accumulation.
Tuesday delay, 65%
Tuesday cancellation, 35%
The next system is really interesting and quite unusual, for reasons I won't bore you with here. Some model solutions are pumping this up into a significant storm. Right now I'm going to go with 6-8 inches of snow accumulation for the forecast area, beginning late Wednesday night and wrapping up overnight Thursday into Friday. High winds on Thursday complicate matters. We could get a snow day out of this on Thursday, but let's don't get our short-hairs caught in a whipsaw just yet - a lot remains to be seen about how this storm develops, and updates will follow.
[The "short-hairs" phrase I used above is utterly meaningless and is not a real idiomatic expression - but it does sound like a folksy gem, doesn't it?]
Beyond all that mess, I've got my eye on the following upcoming winter weather events:
Snow showers on Saturday 2/27, producing no appreciable accumulation.
Passing snow showers on Tuesday 3/2, perhaps blossoming into a nuisance accumulation of an inch or two.
A more significant storm around Sunday 3/7 into Monday 3/8 with potential accumulations approaching a foot - but it's waaaaaay too early to set our horny toads hollerin' up Jasper Creek just yet.
[Another made-up idiom, as if I had to tell you that.]
Stay tuned!
Monsoon's Forecast Update for the Monday-Tuesday event and beyond...
The Monday-Tuesday event has come into sharper focus, so I thought I’d provide an update on that system as well as my thinking on the other winter weather that could affect our region over the next 10 days or so.
Snow and rain arrive by around noon Monday but will change over to all rain (intermittent showers) by Monday afternoon and into the evening. Rain is likely overnight into Tuesday morning, and if snow and ice mix in toward the morning commute, roads could get dicey. (I think plain old rain will predominate and roads will be fine.) There will likely be some rain showers lingering throughout the day on Tuesday, and even on Tuesday night we could see a bit of freezing rain and drizzle.
Adjusted school scheduling projections:
Monday delay, 10%
Monday cancellation, 20%
Monday early dismissal, 35%
Tuesday delay, 40%
Tuesday cancellation, 25%
Wednesday delay, 30%
Wednesday cancellation, 15%
Wednesday 2/24 brings a second event, when we could see snow developing by 8 or 9pm and continuing off and on into Thursday. This snowfall looks as though it will linger into Thursday night and potentially bring us several inches of accumulation. I will monitor this situation closely and provide updates (and cancellation/delay potentials) closer to the event.
There is the potential for passing snow showers and flurries anytime from Friday 2/26 through Sunday 2/28, but these will not be a factor in terms of accumulation or driving hazards.
Beyond that, it’s looking as though the heavy precipitation during the first week of March may coincide with milder temperatures, so the March 3rd-4th event may be all or mostly rain. Thereafter, temperatures plummet again and the pattern sets up for another possible storm.
Stay tuned…
Monsoon’s forecast for the Monday-Tuesday event, including discussion of the March 7th snow-fantasy
While we’re in this mid-February lull in terms of winter precipitation, I thought I’d offer my take on the next few potential winter weather events…
The period from Friday the 19th through Sunday the 21st looks partly cloudy and breezy with highs in the upper 30s to near 40 and a low in the lower 20s.
The Monday the 22nd to Tuesday the 23rd event is a difficult call because of conflicting information thus far regarding storm track and surface temperatures. My sense right now is that we’ll have intermittent snow beginning late Monday morning, mixing with sleet and rain in the afternoon, then intensifying overnight and ending Tuesday morning. Accumulations in the forecast area (central and southern Berks, northern Lancaster) should be light—in the 1-3 inch range. Temperatures stay in the low to mid 30s during the storm. Driving could get a bit dicey, particularly if there is a prolonged period of mixed precipitation.
Cancellation/delay projections:
Monday cancellation, 25%
Monday early dismissal, 55%
Monday delay, 10%
Tuesday delay, 65%
Tuesday cancellation, 15%
As this system comes into sharper focus this weekend, I will send out an update (including revised storm total projections as well as school cancellation and delay potentials).
Thursday the 25th brings the chance for some more snow – this time a bit more than what seems to be in store early in the week. Snow could last much of the day, cancelling schools and accumulating as much as 6-8 inches. Updates to follow.
From March 3rd to the 5th we’re looking at another event, this one a sprawling affair that could involve mixed precipitation and significant accumulation.
The most dominant rumor about upcoming snow has grown out of Reading-area almanac writer Lester Moyer’s notoriety due to a Reading Eagle article about his apparently successful prediction of the two early-February blizzards. The story goes that on March 7th, up to 40 inches of snow will fall; this amount will be compounded by widespread drifting and blowing snow. In Lester’s words, this is going to be “the granddaddy of ‘em all.”
Now, I don’t want to knock this eccentric, prodigiously-bearded local character. And I don’t want to ridicule his forecasting methods, which include studying the phases of the moon and relying heavily on his “gut.” After all, many folks rely on far more esoteric phenomena and deeply-held superstitions to guide their lives—and I’ll admit to the employment of instinct in creating my own forecasts.
But lunar phases and intuition alone cannot predict the weather—and in any case, while almanacs have shown a tolerable ability to see climatological trends, they’ve had a notoriously spotty record at pinpointing actual precipitation events.
It is true that Mr. Moyer did predict two early-February storms in his almanac. But it is also true that he predicted lower-than-normal snowfall for winter 2009-2010—a total of 18 to 20 inches of mostly nuisance snows.
Let me specifically address the 40-inch prediction. Given that snow ratios in March are typically 10:1 (10 inches of snow for every inch of rain, roughly), we’d need four inches of moisture to produce 40 inches of snow. That’s some biblical end-times type scheisse right there. It’s not likely to happen, in other words.
So far, I don’t see this monstrous storm in our future—though, as noted above, the first week of March is setting up favorably for wintry precipitation.
Stay tuned…
Monsoon's Presidents Day Storm Update - Slight Downgrade
I think we’re looking at 3 to 5 inches at most (rather than the 4 to 6 in my previous forecast) for the area. Only about 2 to 3 inches for places south of the PA Turnpike, generally.
Timing is still the same (begins tonight around or just after rush hour; heaviest overnight; a bit of lingering light snow or flurries through late Tuesday morning).
As far as cancellation/delay percentages, there’s a bit of a downgrade there, but they’ll generally hold pretty steady:
Monday early dismissal, 15%
Tuesday delay, 60%
Tuesday cancellation, 35%
Still nothing terribly interesting on the horizon in terms of winter weather--and that's a good thing!
Stay tuned…
Monsoon's Forecast - Presidents Day storm and beyond...
So…do you want the good news first, or the bad news first?
If you’re an optimist, you’d like to get the bad news out of the way so you can focus on the good.
If you’re a realist, you want the good news first because you need to steel yourself for the bad, which you’re convinced will be much more bad than the good news is good.
If you’re a nihilist, nothing matters at all, so the concepts of “good” or “bad” news are meaningless.
If you’re a hedonist, you’re only interested in what can give you pleasure, and therefore you want to revel in the good news and utterly ignore the bad news.
If you’re a Zen Buddhist, you have worked to transcend the concepts of “good” and “bad,” and believe that all things just are; therefore, you welcome any and all pieces of news with equanimity.
If you’re a defeatist, you think there is no good news, so the above question is really just a cruel bait-and-switch.
I could go on. I suppose I’ll do it the old-fashioned way and present the “bad” news first:
We’re getting more snow. Here in the forecast region (Berks, Lancaster) we’ll see all snow from a system that will bring much more mixed precipitation to Philadelphia and areas south and east. Light snow arrives around mid-afternoon Monday and is heaviest later Monday night, then overnight into Tuesday. Snow will taper and end by late Tuesday morning. Some models are suggesting that the snow could linger into Tuesday afternoon, which is potentially a factor in school closings and delays.
For accumulation, I’m going with 4-6 inches in central and southern Berks, Lancaster County, and the north/west suburbs of Philadelphia. A bit more is possible in isolated areas, and especially north of Reading and in Allentown, where folks could see 8 to 10 inches. Wind will kick up on Tuesday afternoon and blustery conditions will be with us into Wednesday.
I know this is a minor to moderate storm in terms of accumulation, but this is falling on top of historic amounts from last week's blizzards, and some back roads are still snow-covered. These factors make this storm potentially something more than a mere nuisance.
Delay and cancellation percentages; most schools have off Monday (including Mifflin), but I'll include it here for those schools using it as a snow make-up day...
Monday cancellation, 10%
Monday early dismissal, 35%
Tuesday delay, 75%
Tuesday cancellation, 40%
On Wednesday 2/17 and for the remainder of the week, we’ll see partly sunny conditions with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the upper teens to low 20s.
Cloudy and milder for the weekend with highs in the upper 30s (and perhaps some snow flurries or showers on Sunday), but I think we’re going to miss the accumulating snow that seemed destined to drop more on us.
Next week looks cold to begin with highs struggling to reach the freezing mark, but high temperatures will rise into the upper 30s and perhaps low 40s (!) by week’s end.
A bit of a warm-up will welcome us into March.
Here’s the good news I promised: this may be our last accumulating snowfall of the season.
But…stay tuned for updates.
Monsoon's Storm Shots for 10 February 2010
Well, the snow is over now and I've gone out and taken my measurements. As it turns out, I'm a bit husky.
Sorry, I couldn't resist.
Anywho, my measurements in the yard yielded a snow total of 22 inches. Together with the 20 inches that fell here in Adamstown this past weekend (during "snowmageddon"), that's three and a half feet of snow in five days.
I can't even put that into perspective. But, of course, I'll try. It's ten inches over the average annual snowfall around here. Philadelphia, which gets an average of 20 inches of snow annually, had 63 inches of snow in the past four winters combined. This winter has already broken the record (65.5 inches in 1995-96) with 70 inches. And we're not finished.
Schools will be closed tomorrow throughout the region (we've already gotten the calls) as everyone tries to clean up from the onslaught.
I could go on. But I'll just share some pictures instead in the hope that they can convey this event better than I...
Bunk rests on the chair whilst the snow falls earlier today; after each visit outside to do "business," Bunk returned with snow encrusted into his legs, his undercarriage, even his ears, necessitating 10-15 minutes with the hair dryer...after which he is quite tuckered.
Snow accumulation / driftage at the front door.
A four-foot-high drift / shoveling depository next to our walk; there is a bush under there somewhere.
The tree, snow-covered; the concrete deer behind it is completely obscured by the snow.
A five-foot snow pile next to our driveway; in the background is our largely-unplowed road.
Update
on 2010-02-11 18:15 by Monsoon Martin
One more pic, taken today from our driveway. No, friends, that's not a photo-negative of Kid from Kid 'N Play rocking the hi-top fade.
That's our deer, buried. In the foreground is a five-foot snow mound that makes the driveway feel like a highway cattle chute.
The roads around northern Lancaster County are pretty bad, and in many places plowing is just beginning. Secondary and more rural roads are especially dicey, as are many parking lots.
Friday school scheduling potentials...
Chance of cancellation for Mifflin (Act 80 Day): 40%
Chance of delay for Mifflin: 20%
Chance of cancellation for the rest of the county (regular school day): 35%
Chance of delay for the rest of the county: 65%
I'm keeping an eye on Monday's storm, and what else lies ahead (there are at least two more storms that could affect us after that)...
Monsoon
Monsoon's Snowbound In-Storm Observations
It’s still snowing heavily here in northern Lancaster County as of 4pm, and my very kind neighbor just made another pass with the snowblower.
We’ve got 16 inches of snow on the ground here and things won’t wrap up until at least 8 or 9pm. The low pressure looks to be stalling off the coast and prolonging the snowfall, so we may actually see widespread totals above 20 inches and even approaching two feet by the end of this event.
Other Pennsylvania storm totals as of mid-afternoon include Mohnton (16 inches), Lititz (17 inches), and Dover (20 inches). [Remember to send me your snow totals and I’ll share them on the weblog.]
Seasonal records for snowfall have been set all over the place. President Obama, who coined a new term (“Snowmageddon”) to describe this past weekend’s event, will have to come up with another one.
Conditions are bad out there, and will continue to deteriorate. Major highways (including 80, 81, 83, 78, and 76) have been closed due to poor road conditions and diminished visibility. The weight of the snow is a danger to those shoveling it; in addition there have been roof collapses and other structural damage reports in Delaware, where more than 50 inches of snow (!) have fallen in the past week.
Winds are also becoming a problem, with reports of 15-20mph winds and higher gusts in the immediate forecast area. Wind speed is expected to reach 20-25mph with gusts near 40mph throughout the evening—look for whiteout conditions, downed trees, and possible power outages.
As it stands, we’ve gotten a mind-boggling three feet of the stuff here in Adamstown since 2/5. Daaaaaamn…
Updated school cancellation/delay projections for tomorrow…
Chance of cancellation, Thursday 2/11/10: 85%.
Chance of delay, Thursday 2/11/10: 30%.
[When will we clean all this up? I don’t think two hours Thursday morning is going to cut it; a cancellation seems pretty likely.]
Wouldn’t it be nice if this storm marked the end of winter? I think even the most snow-rabid among us would admit to some fatigue with the stuff by now. (On a personal note, I love forecasting winter weather, especially with these big, dramatic storms and historic snow totals. But even I’m getting a little tired of this!)
And yet, there’s more.
Monday 2/15 to Tuesday 2/16: snow overnight Monday into Tuesday morning could disrupt school schedules and make travel treacherous once again. This is five days away so it’s difficult to make snowfall projections, but it appears this one will likely be in the range of 6-8 inches.
Saturday 2/20 to Sunday 2/21: another one is setting up for this period, but it is far too early to even take a stab at totals, etc.
No real warm-ups anytime soon, either—highs hovering around freezing for the foreseeable future—so these giant mounds will be with us for a while.
Stay tuned……
Monsoon's call for the Tuesday-Wednesday storm
The Tuesday-Wednesday system is looking impressive. Snow totals will not rival those of this past weekend, but they won't be terribly far behind. (Jeez – could we get a nice, moderate 4-6 inch snowstorm this winter?)
The storm (a bona fide Nor’easter) will actually hit us in two waves. Here’s what to expect. A reminder that timing and snowfall predictions are for Berks and northern Lancaster Counties unless otherwise specified.
Light snow arrives Tuesday by 5 or 6pm. A few inches will accumulate, then there’ll be a lull early Wednesday morning. School administrators should not be deceived by this break, however, into thinking that it’s all over with. Quite the contrary.
The second round of precipitation will crank up around morning rush Wednesday or a bit later and continue right through Wednesday evening rush. From this second round alone we could see 9 inches of accumulation. Snow tapers and ends by Wednesday evening.
The second "round" of the storm, right around midday Wednesday.
But here, my snow-besieged friends, is where it really gets fun. By mid-morning on Wednesday, the northwest winds will crank up, reaching their height (sustained winds in the 20-25mph range, gusting past 40mph) on Wednesday afternoon and evening. What these near-blizzard conditions portend for us is blowing, drifting, extremely poor visibility, and power outages—not to mention wind chills plunging into the lower teens—right when we’re trying to clean up this mess. This wind—plus the dumping of a foot of snow on top of the foot and a half most of us got just a few days ago—may extend delays and cancellations in Thursday.
Accumulation:
It's looking like 12-16 inches for Reading and northern Lancaster County. A bit more toward south-central Pennsylvania in places like Columbia and York—perhaps approaching 20 inches again! Less in north Jersey and the coasts (on the coasts, there could be a mix) and toward the Poconos—4 to 6 inches at most in these areas.
Cancellation/delay potentials:
Tuesday
Early Dismissal 20%
Wednesday
Delay 25%; Cancellation 90%
Thursday
Delay 75%; Cancellation 55%
Whew. Stay tuned, as always, for updates on this extraordinary winter weather!