Spring is near.
After what seemed like a solid week of rainy, chilly days, we’re getting a nice reward here with brilliant sunshine and highs in the mid 60s throughout the region. Esbenshades is open, Boehringer’s just opened, and although the spring opening at Shupp’s Grove is a full month away, spring is definitely in the air.
Here’s a look at the weather in store for the last few days of winter and the first week or so of spring…
Wed 3/17: continued mild with brilliant sunshine as a high pressure system sets up over our area. Look for highs once again in the mid 60s and overnight lows in the mid 30s.
Thu 3/18: sunny and mild once again and somewhat breezy; highs in the mid to upper 60s and a low around 40.
Fri 3/19: sunny and mild again. Look for highs in the upper 60s (some areas could actually reach 70!) and lows again near 40.
Sat 3/20: sunny to partly cloudy and still mild, with highs in the mid to upper 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s. Happy first day of spring!
Sun 3/21: mostly cloudy, breezy and mild with a high again in the low to mid 60s. Slight chance of some showers later on Sunday night, when we should expect a low in the low 40s.
Mon 3/22: sun and clouds mix; cooler with temperatures closer to normal for this time of year (highs in the low 50s, lows in the low 30s).
Tue 3/23: partly cloudy and seasonably pleasant with highs in the low to mid 50s and lows in the low to mid 30s.
Wed 3/24: partly to mostly cloudy and a bit milder with highs perhaps reaching the upper 50s.
Thu 3/25: clouds arrive ahead of a low pressure system, keeping highs in the low 50s.
Fri 3/26 and Sat 3/27: overcast, rainy and chilly with highs only reaching about the mid 40s.
Sun 3/28 and Mon 3/29: partly sunny and still cool with highs in the upper 40s at best.
Preliminary spring break (or what’s left of it) forecast: looks like the typical early-April pattern holds and we see highs in the upper 40s to low 50s with a few rainy days.
Stay tuned!
Monsoon's Rainy Forecast for Tuesday, 9 March 2010
As the snowy season recedes into memory, and the bulging snow piles shrivel to filthy, pepper-flecked knolls in the far reaches of parking lots, we can look ahead to a rainy mid-March. Here are the details...
Wednesday 3/10: partly cloudy with plenty of sunshine to start; becoming cloudy late. High 58, low 36.
Thursday 3/11: mostly cloudy with rain showers and drizzle developing by late afternoon. Light rain continues on and off into the evening and overnight. Temperatures holding in the low 50s.
Friday 3/12: cloudy and breezy with intermittent rain; becomes heavier at night. Temperatures generally in the mid 50s.
Saturday 3/13: cloudy and windy with steady rain, especially early. Watch for flooding problems developing, particularly at waterways and poor drainage areas. High 58, low 44.
Sunday 3/14: overcast with some lingering showers possible, mainly early, tapering by the afternoon. From Thursday to Sunday most of us will see anywhere from three-quarters of an inch to an inch and a half of rainfall. High 56, low 39.
Next week: seasonably cooler with highs in the upper 40s and lows in the mid to upper 30s. A bit of rain is possible here and there on Monday through Wednesday, but the next steady rain will come through around Thursday 3/18 to Friday 3/19. Cold overnight and early-morning temperatures could result in a few flurries on Friday or Saturday, but nothing accumulating.
Beyond: seasonably cool (or just a tad below normal) into the third week of March, with highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows at or just below freezing.
Snow: there’s a chance, really, until early April. But I truly don’t think so.
Monsoon Anticipates, Answers Your Weather Queries
As the winter comes to a close, I know some of you have questions about the coming weeks, weather-wise. As your faithful blogger, it is my job to not only answer your questions, but to anticipate them.
And so.
What’s this weekend going to be like?
Niiiiiice. Expect plenty of sunshine both Saturday and Sunday with high temperatures approaching (and maybe on Sunday, eclipsing) 50, and a pleasant breeze.
So are we going to get this gargantuan snowstorm, the March 7th 40-incher predicted by Berks almanac-diviner Lester Moyer?
It would appear that we will not…as I said a couple of weeks ago.
What about next week?
Nice again, at least for most of the week. Highs will be in the low 50s on Monday, and the upper 40s through Thursday, with overnight lows just above freezing. Skies will be partly cloudy in general. Expect showers anytime from Friday through Sunday—but these will be rain showers.
And while you’re at it, what’s it going to be like the following week, the 15th through the 19th?
A bit warmer, actually. Highs are going to get into the mid-50s on Monday and Tuesday, then on Wednesday into Thursday we’re looking at chillier conditions and some rain (which may mix with some wet snow at night).
Level with us: is there going to be any more freaking snow?
I really think we may be finished with accumulating snowfall for the season. Seriously.
When can we expect spring-like temperatures?
April? May?
When can I begin wearing my tube-top and culottes out in public again?
Never. Trust me.
If there are any other questions I can answer for you, email me by clicking on the “Monsoon” below!
Monsoon's Snow No More? Forecast
Most places in the area have seen 70+ inches of snow this winter, shattering records, and nearly 50 inches in February alone. (Here in northern Lancaster County we had 46 inches in February.) So…uncle. That’s enough. Ready for the snow to leave us now.
The pattern ahead holds for continued wet weather, but there are signs the arctic air will lift and some milder conditions will move in. Yes, my good people: there is an actual, plausible chance that we may be finished with the snow insanity for winter 2010.
Monday 3/1 – partly to mostly sunny and quite windy, especially in the afternoon. A storm affects New England but not New York, New Jersey, or Pennsylvania. High in the low to mid 40s and low in the upper 20s.
Tuesday 3/2 – plenty of clouds with scattered rain showers in the afternoon and evening. High near 40 and low overnight of around 30. There may be some snow showers and flurries, amounting to no more than a coating. But look out for slick driving and walking surfaces Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday 3/3 – cloudy and breezy with snow showers likely. There is a large coastal storm moving up the coast, but it will miss us to the south. We’ll only see snow showers out of this. [If my thinking changes on this event—which would again mean accumulating snow if it hugs the coast and takes a more northward tack—I’ll let you know.] High in the mid 30s, low in the mid to upper 20s.
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 15%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 55%
Thursday 3/4 – cloudy and rather breezy with a few stray snow or rain showers possible; clearing and becoming colder later. High in the low 40s, low in the low 20s.
Friday 3/5 – plenty of sunshine with highs in the upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s.
The weekend – sunny and milder with highs in the mid 40s and lows just below freezing. (Note that Sunday is March 7th, the date of Lester Moyer’s Forty-Inch Snow Dump Phantasm.)
Next week – begins with cloudy conditions and highs reaching the upper 40s to near 50 (!). Some rain (all rain, only rain) is possible on Tuesday 3/9 and Wednesday 3/10. By the end of the week, look for seasonably cold temperatures: highs struggling to reach 40.
Next weekend – highs in the 30s, lows in the 20s: colder than normal temperatures, and perhaps some wintry precipitation.
Stay tuned…
Monsoon's Storm Recap and Look-Ahead
What a curious, maddening snowstorm: some areas got scarcely any accumulation, and others (in the places I figured would get hardest-hit) got more than two feet of snow.
I have to acknowledge some problems with my forecast, though: accumulating snow did not develop here until later Thursday night, whereas I thought it would begin accumulating and causing travel problems by early Thursday afternoon; and snow totals in most of the forecast area just didn’t reach even the adjusted 6-8 inch forecast.
Why did the storm fail to live up to my forecast? A few reasons…
- My forecast was flawed. I got all excited about the prospect of more heavy snowfall that I missed some indicators suggesting this might be lighter for us.
- The angle of the sun this time of year—combined with the lightness of precipitation for much of this long event—meant the snow just couldn’t accumulate on roadways for the most part.
- The low stalled farther north than I originally thought it might, so only the outermost bands of precipitation reached the Berks-Lancaster area. At times, some of these bands looked impressively heavy, but they frequently fell apart before they could do much damage here.
- The forecast models overplayed the ridge that would forestall the system and extend the heaviest snow into the area; again, I should have recognized this.
Snowfall totals at this point (around 6pm Friday evening) are about as widely varied as one finds from a single storm—a storm that, incidentally, continues to spiral its way northeastward, its outer bands of precipitation disintegrating throughout the area. Here are some samples:
Northern New Jersey, 18-26”
Northeastern Pennsylvania, up to 24” (and more in the Poconos)
Allentown and Bethlehem, 14-16”
Bucks County, more than 12” in some locations
Exton, 11”
King of Prussia, 8”
Southern Berks and most of Lancaster County saw 3-5” generally
[Your snow totals and anecdotal reports would be helpful in sorting out just who got what in the area.]
The winds lived up to their billing, howling through the night and morning and caused all sorts of problems; Mifflin had its second straight snow day, according to our Superintendent’s message, due to multiple road closures in the district. Lots of roads were (and some remain) closed due to drifting, especially in northern Berks County.
Winds will continue to die down, but watch for continued drifting, especially tonight.
Here’s what to expect in the coming days:
A few snow showers may linger into Saturday, but expect no additional accumulation.
There are two upcoming storms I have my eye on right now—the second of which having the best chance to affect our area.
First, a coastal storm will head up this way from Florida and potentially be drawn into the existing low, now heading for New England. Very likely this system will affect only New England (and not anything south of New York City), but it bears watching.
Then, a storm that’s now hammering California appears headed for the mid-Atlantic toward the middle of next week (March 3rd or 4th), but a lot remains to be seen regarding this system, including exact track and precipitation type (due to surface temperatures).
Then, I think, finally, mercifully, we’ll be finished with winter storms. By late next week, highs will be in the 40s; snow cover will continue melting and the ground will warm up. This all makes it more likely that any precipitation would be rain, or would melt on contact if frozen.
But given this screwy, snowy, once-in-a-lifetime winter, I’m not going to let my guard down (or put the shovels and scrapers away) until we start seeing 50- and 60-degree days!
Stay tuned…
Monsoon's In-Storm Update for 25 February 2010
Well.
Quite obviously, those of us who teach in Berks County had a snow day with no real accumulating snow. Flurries and light snow melted upon contact with paved surfaces, making them merely wet. This scenario was mainly due to the fact that this unusual storm did not hug the coast as tightly as many believed it would.
Here’s what to expect over the next 48 hours or so.
Winds will intensify this evening and tonight, and snow will become steadier and drier, accumulating rapidly on roadways and causing conditions to deteriorate. The result will be accumulation of 3-5 inches and some drifting over the forecast area by Friday morning. Temperatures tonight will dip into the mid-20s, and wind chills will be in the low single digits.
As I noted previously, watch for drifting, downed trees, power outages, and the like due to the wind.
Friday morning will still be quite snowy at times, and very windy. Both the snow and wind will begin to taper off by late afternoon Friday, though accumulating snow can linger into very early Saturday morning. Expect highs on Friday only a couple of degrees above freezing with winds chills in the teens and 20s.
We may even see a few snow showers on Saturday night and Sunday from this sprawling system.
Total accumulations for the forecast area from now through Saturday morning will be in the range of 6-8 inches generally. Locally higher amounts are still possible.
School scheduling potentials…
Friday delay 80%
Friday cancellation 75%
Monsoon's Snowstorm Update for 24 February 2010
My call on the storm is basically the same as what I put forth last night. Here’s my latest thinking, based on the most updated information…
I believe the heaviest snow will fall in eastern and northeastern Pennsylvania (Allentown, the Poconos, and Scranton), north Jersey, interior New York, and western Connecticut. Look for totals of 16 inches to two feet in these areas.
But we in the forecast area of Berks and northern Lancaster Counties will not be spared here. I’m going to stick with 8-12 inches, with the possibility of more in some places, depending on snow banding and storm track. We’ll still have howling winds; look for winds ramping up to 20-30mph tomorrow and gusts of 40-50mph.
Timing: snow begins sometime after midnight, and certainly (and crucially, for the sake of school scheduling changes) by the morning commute. We may see a bit of a slowdown (maybe even a break) on Thursday evening before a second wave of precipitation late Thursday night into Friday morning.
Bust potential (or the possibility that we could get little or nothing out of this system): moderate. There are definitely other scenarios that could play out here, but to discuss them in depth would amount to hedging. Not gonna do it.
When to minimize travel: all day Thursday, particularly in the evening when visibility is low; and Friday morning.
School scheduling potentials:
Thursday delay, 10% (it just doesn’t make sense)
Thursday cancellation, 80% (but I think it’ll be a morning cancellation—we won’t be so lucky as to get the call tonight)
Thursday early dismissal (if we’re here in the first place), 95%
Friday delay, 85% (it’s still going to be snowing Friday morning)
Friday cancellation, 60% (this storm might really produce a mess; another day of clean-up would really be prudent)
Lastly, I’d like to thank all of you for visiting the weblog and sharing it far and wide. You’ve made February my biggest month ever (by far) with several days still to go in the month, with more than 3,000 views and more than 1,200 unique users (or separate individuals visiting the site). Again, thanks!
Stay tuned for in-storm updates if anything changes…
Monsoon's End-of-the-Week Snowstorm Forecast: go get your bread and milk!
Tonight there is the chance of some leftover light snow showers as the system that gave us sleet last night and rain today moves away. I don’t see any accumulation or travel hazards for Berks or Lancaster.
The next storm is a coastal low that looks good to develop into a full-fledged Nor’easter. Light snow moves in late Wednesday night (i.e., after midnight) and intensifies by mid-morning Thursday, continuing into Thursday evening. Snow continues intermittently (and of varying intensity) through Friday morning. This will be a snow event; I do not believe the forecast area will see any mixing.
Complicating matters (and making conditions more dangerous) will be strong winds—potentially the most violent of the season. Look for sustained winds of 20-30mph and gusts well over 40mph, getting cranked up throughout the day on Thursday and continuing through Friday. Combined with a heavy, wet snowfall, we could see widespread drifting, downed power lines, and fallen tree limbs.
Forecasting amounts with this one is especially tricky, and models have been in quite a bit of disagreement about just what kind of track this goofy storm will take. (I call it goofy because it’s going to come up the east coast, head northeast out to sea where it’ll pick up all kinds of additional moisture, and then—because of strong Atlantic oscillation—make a west-southwesterly turn, running smack pow into us.)
I reserve the right to alter my predictions tomorrow and new data comes in, but for now I’m going to call 8-12 inches for Berks and northern Lancaster Counties. This could be a big, nasty storm that gets into the foot-plus territory we saw back at the beginning of the month, but I’m not ready to say that for sure yet. This is also the sort of storm that will have heavy “bands” of precipitation in some areas, but lesser amounts in others; for example, Shillington could get 14 inches while Robesonia only gets 6 inches and Morgantown gets two feet.
Potentials for school scheduling snafus…
Thursday delay, 20%
Thursday cancellation, 75%
Thursday early dismissal (if we have school), 90%
Friday delay, 85%
Friday cancellation, 60%
Stay tuned for updated information, including snow totals and school scheduling potentials!