Midweek Nor'easter Update
The Nor'easter is tracking farther east (out to sea) which means a few things for us:
- It will still be windy, but the dangerously high winds (and the ones that could have wrought havoc on already hard-hit areas) will stay out to sea. Winds here will be 15-25mph with gusts of 30-35mph.
- The storm will be weaker, so the worst-case rain totals and flooding should not materialize.
- Only a quarter to two-fifths of an inch of rain will come our way, so the precipitation will be mostly light and intermittent.
- Some forecast models depict accumulating snow with this event, but due to a variety of factors (sun angle, surface temperature, ocean temps, etc.) any snow we see will be wet snow or a mixture, and will accumulate only on grasses. Accumulating snowfall only in higher elevations. Accumulating snow possible (2 to 4 inches) in central and northern NJ and northeast PA, especially on Wednesday evening. Most issues will be in New England.
- I don’t see travel problems (or school delays/closures) with this event.
Looking ahead...
High in the 50s on Saturday, 60s from Sunday through Tuesday. Partly to mostly sunny throughout, and no rain!
Tuesday 11/13 will have some rain, followed by colder temperatures - breezy with highs only in the 40s...
Midweek Nor'easter comes into sharper focus
The Nor'easter now appears as though it will affect our area, but we will escape the "worst case scenario" event involving extremely high winds and accumulating snow. Here's what I think...
Winds will start to increase on Wednesday morning, and by Wednesday afternoon they will be at 15-20mph (sustained) with 30mph gusts--nothing approaching what we dealt with in the Frankenstorm, but nothing to trifle with, either.
The Hoff reminds you to be sure and vote on November 6th (Democrats) and November 7th (Republicans)!Rain begins to overspread the area by early Wednesday afternoon, with the heaviest rain falling Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. It tapers by Thursday evening. (We could see a bit of wet snow mix in on Wednesday morning and Thursday morning, but it will not accumulate around here. Only higher elevations in the Poconos will see any accumulation.) Total rainfall amounts will be in the half-inch to inch-and-a-quarter range, so we will not see flooding. However, considering the leaning trees, weak roots, and waterlogged ground, even this relatively moderate rain and wind could cause problems.
Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be 45 and 48, respectively. On Friday, we'll actually see a bit of sunshine (!) and highs getting into the 50s.And Saturday and Sunday look fantastic - highs in the upper 50s/low 60s and plenty of sunshine.
Stay tuned for updates!
...are you ready for the next one?
That's what the checkout person at Home Depot said to me this evening after we had recounted our respective Hurricane Sandy woes. She was talking about the Nor'easter that, rumors says, will strike our area next week with heavy rain and wind--or, in some permutations, snow.
In short: I don't see it.
I mean, the storm is there, but it comes together too late (and too far out to sea) to affect us. Instead, it will likely hit New England with some snow.
The most likely scenario: the Nor'easter skirts our area (just giving us a bit of rain) and stays out to sea, then arrives in New England Wednesday into Thursday.One of the reasons people are latching on to this Nor'easter forecast is that the European model (the "Euro," one of the forecast models), which was one of the first to key in to Sandy's superstorm potential, is depicting a strong storm here. But there are many models--the GFS, NAM, UK, CMC, and others--and none of them can be regarded as a complete forecast. Meteorologists (even amateur ones like me) look at the computer models together with atmospheric trends, weather maps, data, and climatology.
So to sum up: there's a small chance this will hit us. But most indications are that it will miss us, and I feel confident in that forecast.
The weather, then...
Saturday 11/3 will be chilly and breezy with partly sunny skies. High 48, low 32.
Sunday 11/4 looks quite similar: clouds and sun with breezy conditions. High 47, low 30.
Monday 11/5 will be partly sunny and chilly with diminishing and clearing skies toward evening. High 48, low 29.
Tuesday 11/6 will be partly sunny, breezy and chilly (stop me if you've heard this before) with a high of 48 and a low of 31.
Wednesday 11/7 looks cloudy, breezy and chilly with rain. Not a nice day for outdoor activities. High 45, low 38.
Thursday 11/8 will be windy and chillier with partly sunny skies. High 45, low 28.
Friday 11/9 will be sunnier and a bit milder with diminishing winds. High 51, low 35.
Next weekend (the 10th and 11th) will be milder still with more sunshine and highs in the mid 50s.
The following week (beginning with the 12th) will start mild with rain, and end cold with possible snow and ice. (But that's two weeks away, so let's no worry just yet.)
In Hasselhovian news, The Hoff has been spotted recently filming a Dutch advertisement in Portugal, revealed on the television newsmagazine "Access Hollywood" that Carmen Electra was his favorite "Baywatch Babe," and is reportedly mulling a proposal to his Welsh girlfriend Hayley Roberts.
But the big Hasselhoff news is that Herr Fantastisch has deigned to do a Lifetime movie - it's called The Christmas Consultant and features Hoff in the title role as a holiday planner hired by a workaholic wife and mother (Caroline Rhea), but he ends up teaching the whole family important lessons about life and blah blah blah. The draw here is that David will be in full Hammelhoff mode (hamming it up and riffing on his Hoff persona in a self-referential meta-deconstruction worthy of Michel Foucault).
Tune in November 10th at 8pm on Lifetime.
Update on Sandy, Der Frankenstorm
Hey there,
A word about the unofficial name of this event, the Frankenstorm: it originated because the storm is a hybrid of a hurricane, a high pressure ridge, and a cold front, creating a hurricane-Nor'easter hybrid--just as Frankenstein's monster was a maudlin patchwork of humanity. And given that this storm is taking place a couple of days before Halloween, it was bound to resonate. And its Germanic tenor is gold.
(Some outlets like CNN and The Weather Channel have banned any reference to this event as the Frankenstorm, believing that the moniker trivializes a serious and potentially deadly situation. To these fuddy-duddys I say: Get a goddamned sense of humor, will ya?)
So not much has changed regarding the forecast, but some of the timing and particulars have come into clearer focus. Specifically:
We will see some rain from this system Sunday afternoon and evening, but the heavy, lashing rain and whipping winds won't arrive until overnight into early Monday morning.
The entire days on Monday and Tuesday will be just unimaginably shitty. All day Monday and all day Tuesday we can expect sustained winds in the 35-45mph range with gusts reaching 60-70mph (especially on Tuesday). Rain and wind will begin to taper on Tuesday evening and overnight into Wednesday. We could still have a linger shower or three on Wednesday and it'll still be cloudy, but that's it.
The most prominent hazards from this storm will be property damage from flying objects, long-term power outages, storm surges at and near the coasts, and significant flooding.
The governor of New Jersey, the mayor of Philadelphia, and the Berks County Commissioners have declared states of emergency for their areas. Colleges have begun to cancel classes for Monday and Tuesday. I feel confident that our schools will be closed on Monday and Tuesday as well--and maybe beyond, depending on the power outage and downed-tree situations.
Be sure to send me updates at monsoonmartin@gmail.com: storm damage, outages, mewling, and the like. And I'll be sure to send out updates about closures, track, and other particulars as needed (and as possible, depending on the power company).
Stay safe. And also: Hasselhoff.
A churning, lashing beast.
But enough about your mom.
I've seen Hurricane Sandy called the Perfect Storm, a Frankenstorm, and Sandy Cane (?), but the above phrase provides a description that is more apt than wry.
The storm is coming, and it will hit us. Precise track and landfall will be determined by a variety of factors, but here is what I think is going to happen:
Sandy will make landfall in the Delmarva Peninsula/South Jersey area on Monday afternoon, but we will begin to see some rain from this system by Sunday afternoon, and some winds (10-20mph), but neither will be heavy.
Barometric pressures with this event could reach historic lows.
On Monday, the winds and rain get heavier, and by Monday evening (6-8pm) we'll see tropical storm conditions moving in to the area. (That means sustained winds in the 35-45mph range and gusts of 60-70mph, with heavy rain.) These conditions will persist into Tuesday night and perhaps even into Wednesday morning. Rain from Sandy will linger into Thursday.
A "Frequently Asked Questions" section follows.
What complications are likely to develop?
High winds will lead to widespread damage (from fallen trees, branches and other projectiles) in the form of broken windows and the like
Widespread power outages, most seriously on Monday into Tuesday, potentially lasting for several days or even a week - mostly due to fallen trees and high winds
Storm surges of five or more feet - not only coastally, but 20-30 miles inland as well. It's a full moon Monday, so tides will be high to begin with
Rainfall in the amount of 5-6 inches will lead to swollen waterways, wet basements, and widespread inland flooding
Widespread flight delays or cancellations, as the storm will impact transportation hubs like D.C., NYC, and Philadelphia
Is this storm likely to cause school cancellations, delays, and the like?
Yes. I foresee an early dismissal on Monday and closure Tuesday and Wednesday.
How should we prepare?
Buy canned food and bottled water - things that will keep in unrefrigerated conditions.
Make sure you have plenty of batteries on hand to power flashlights and radios.
Bring in outdoor furniture, garden tools, toys, garbage cans, and landscape decorations, removing anything that could become a projectile in high winds.
Don't drive through a water-covered road, as it's usually impossible to ascertain the depth of the water. After every storm of this nature, there's footage of some poor schmuck being rescued from floodwaters after he drove into a flooded section of roadway and his car stalled out. Don't be that schmuck.
Watch out for tornadoes, as tropical storms can often produce them.
During periods of extremely high winds, stay on the first floor and away from windows.
Don't mess around with downed power lines and get yourself electrocuted.
Don't try to cuddle a panda, no matter how cute it might look. Learned that one the hard way.
Stay tuned for updates this weekend as the storm comes into clearer focus...
Sandy: The Perfect Storm?
My good people,
You know that I spurn the hyperbolic alarmism of the major weather outlets (*cough* AccuWeather *cough* Hurricane Schwartz) as canards designed to drive up ratings and incite frenzied consumption of bread, milk, duct tape, bottled water, and bacon. (Gotta have bacon.)
But the system that is now Hurricane Sandy--churning through Jamaica right now, bearing down on Cuba, heading north toward the Bahamas by daybreak Thursday--is likely to deliver us dangerous, disruptive weather.
For reals.
Rather than bore you with talk of convection and trough depth and model solutions, I will simply note that there is disagreement in the meteorological community (and among forecast models) about the precise track Sandy will follow, which determines whether we get a direct hit or a glancing blow.
Here's what I think is the most likely development of this system:
Sandy makes landfall in the New Jersey-New York-Connecticut area on Monday afternoon. The result is damaging winds for people as far inland as central Pennsylvania, as well as major coastal and inland flooding. (There was some talk of snow with this system. Aside from extremely high elevations in the Appalachians, I don't see it. This is just heavy rain.)
So here's the forecast for the next 10 days or so, with updates forthcoming as I get a surer handle on Sandy:
Thursday 10/25: A foggy morning gives way to a partly sunny day. Still warmer than normal with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the upper 50s. Maybe a bit of drizzle/mist and fog late at night.
Friday 10/26: Scattered fog again, and again we'll see highs in the lower 70s--though clouds will dominate throughout the day. A cloudy night with lows in the mid 50s.
Saturday 10/27: Sun mixed with clouds and breezy. Highs in the upper 60s, lows in the lower 50s. Maybe a sprinkle or two during the day, but mostly dry.
Sunday 10/28: Noticeably cooler with highs only reaching the upper 50s. Breezy and overcast with showers possible during the day, then rain more likely at night. Lows in the mid 40s.
Monday 10/29: Rainy and windy and raw and foul. Temperatures holding steady in the low to mid 50s for much of the day and night.
Tuesday 10/30: Like Monday, but cooler. Still rainy and windy and nasty. Highs struggling to reach 50; lows in the upper 30s.
Gratuitous, inexplicable picture of David Hasselhoff.
Wednesday 10/31: Rainy, again. Tapering toward evening. Windy. Highs around 50, lows in the upper 30s.
Thursday 11/1: Partly sunny and colder. Highs only in the mid 40s. Lows in the mid 30s. Still rather windy.
Friday 11/2: Partly cloudy with lingering breezes. Highs in the mid 40s, lows in the low 30s.
Saturday 11/3: Variable cloudiness. Highs in the low 50s, lows in the upper 30s.
Bottom line: Next week is going to be miserable, and possibly dangerous.
Feisty Pumpkin, good. Frosty Pumpkins, bad.
My most excellent good friends:
It has been many days since I last posted, many of them unpleasantly warm. Now it is autumn, but the next couple of days are actually going to feel more like early winter. Not to fear, though - we'll return to normal conditions for this time of year (highs in the mid 60s, lows in the mid 40s) soon enough...
Today will be chilly and breezy with plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 50s. I expect freeze warnings to be issued for much of the area for the overnight period. Temperatures will dip into the low 30s (freezing is 32, for the uninitiated) toward early Saturday morning. So bring in your mums and pumpkins; while everyone likes a feisty pumpkin, and a pumpkin pie with frosting is divine, a frosty pumpkin can ruin your weekend.
Saturday will be brilliantly sunny and continued rather cool with highs in the upper 50s, but overnight lows getting only into the upper 30s.
Sunday looks gorgeous with highs approaching (and in some places, exceeding) 70 but a nice fall breeze. Clouds will increase toward evening, but I don't think we'll see any showers until Monday. Low on Sunday night will be in the low 50s.
Monday morning: chance of a shower or two, but no big deal. Highs in the mid 70s, lows near 50.
Clouds mixed with sun on Tuesday with seasonable temperatures: highs in the mid 60s, lows in the mid 40s. The same holds for Wednesday and Thursday as well.
Friday could bring some showers, which may linger into the first part of the weekend. Speaking of which...
Next weekend looks decent, but fairly cloudy and cool. Highs just above 60 on Saturday, just below 60 on Sunday.
The following week (beginning with Monday 10/22) is when we're going to see some chilly, raw, and pluvious days. Highs will struggle to reach 50 most days that week, and there will be rain much of the time...
I see no chance of snow in the next month (and notwithstanding last year's freak October snowstorm, that is as it should be).
Keep it real. Always.
End of the school year forecast
It's the end of the school year. No farewell speeches that approach the depravity and--let's face it--brilliance of Ignacio Boondoggle's. Yet.
Tomorrow (Friday 5/18) is Imagine Day, and for the first time in recent memory, there is no threat of rain. In addition, the American Studies team over at Muhlenberg is taking students on a whirlwind day tour of Washington, D.C. on Sunday, during which the group will visit 14 museums, 19 memorials, and of course, the Hard Rock Café.
And folks are beginning to look toward the Memorial Day weekend for outdoor plans. For the first time, Mrs. Monsoon and I can visit the Adamstown Community Days carnival and then leave, rather than living across the street from it, breathing a nauseating mixture of generator fumes, funnel cake grease, and carnie sweat for several days.
So here is the forecast.
Friday 5/18: really, really nice and sunny. Temperatures will be in the low 70s with brilliant sunshine, low humidity, and very light breezes for the duration of our time outside (roughly noon to 3pm). High Friday will be 75, low will be 44.
Saturday 5/19: expect a high of 82 and a low of 55. Plenty of sunshine and a bit warmer than Friday.
Sunday 5/20: sunny to start; increasing cloudiness throughout the day, but no threat of precipitation until Monday. High 79, low 58.
The Washington, D.C. trip will be spending the entire day in the nation's capital, so here's what to expect:
9am, 66 degrees and partly cloudy with a very light northwesterly breeze.
11am, 72 degrees and the same conditions as 9am.
1pm, 76 degrees and the same conditions as 9am.
3pm, 78 degrees and increasing cloudiness, as breezes shift, coming from the northeast.
5pm, 79 degrees and same conditions as 3pm.
7pm, 75 degrees and same conditions as 3pm.
9pm, 70 degrees and a very small chance of a passing shower.
Monday 5/21: clouds predominate; chance of a thunderstorm, especially in the afternoon, with a high of 76. Clouds persist in the overnight hours, with a low of 59.
Tuesday 5/22: very similar to Monday; thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, then an added chance of showers in the evening. The high reaches 78, the low reaches 57.
Little-known Monsoon fact: we have a turtle living with us. His name is Chester, he is a red-eared slider, and he looks like this. He's been a part of our family for 16 years!Wednesday 5/23: clouds mixed with sun; early showers. High 77, low 57. (Happy World Turtle Day!)
Thursday 5/24: partly sunny and breezy as tumultuous weather gives way to settled high pressure. High 74, low 52.
Friday 5/25: for the unofficial kickoff to Memorial Day weekend, expect a continuation of Thursday's weather: partly sunny and breezy with highs in the mid 70s.
Saturday 5/26: partly cloudy and quite a bit warmer to start. High 85. Rain, I'm afraid, will move in--especially in the evening and overnight. Low 66.
Sunday 5/27: sunny and very warm, with increased humidity. High 91. (We may even challenge the record of 93 set in 1914.) Low 68.
Monday 5/28: sunny and continued warm, but with breezes and decreased humidity mitigating the heat. High 89, low 61.
Tuesday 5/29: sunny, breezy, and seasonably warm. High 81, low 55.
Wednesday 5/30: sunny and splendiferous. High 76, low 52.
Thursday 5/31: sunny and enchantingly gorgeous weather. High 74, low 50.
June: begins seasonably warmish (highs in the low to mid 80s) then we'll see record-challenging heat by mid-month.