Search queries, CNN, balls-coldness, and January outlook: welcoming 2013!
New Year's revellers!
The end of the year (and a similar exercise on the excellent website Passive-Aggressive Notes) got me thinking about the search queries (on Google, Bing, and other engines) that led people to my weblog. I present some of the most interesting ones here, without comment. (And a special treat, right at the end, from last night's hilariously inappropriate New Year's Eve coverage on CNN.) Please to enjoy:
five guys
many are trapped for hours in darkness and confusion
will it snow on wednesday
eagle’s eye sweaters
rockford files firebird
burger grease paper
unsere freunde book
frere mosoon the wire
blue oyster cult snl
subliminal weed messages
forecastive
frosty pumpkin
hasselhoff berlin wall
monsoon sweatshop
hasselhoff monsoon
hasselhovian
hoffophilia treatment
shakespeare behind bars ksr
armani spade climax
five guys yum
And now, on to the weather.
What to expect in the first two weeks of January…
Tuesday 1/1/13 will be overcast with some afternoon flurries possible. Becoming much colder tonight. High 41, low 22.
Wednesday 1/2 will be, as promised, much colder. In fact, it will set new marks for the season on the balls-coldness meter (apologies to Trevor Wagner for stealing that term). The balls-coldness meter runs as follows:
BC1 = temperatures of 35-40, with wind chills and other atmospheric conditions factored in. (For example, a temperature of 45 with moderate winds would result in wind chills within the BC1 range. A temperature of 36 with no wind would also fall within the BC1 range. Frozen or chilly precipitation can also cause the BC level to drop by a few degrees.)
BC2 = temperatures/conditions/wind chills 25-35.
BC3 = temperatures/conditions/wind chills 15-25.
BC4 = temperatures/conditions/wind chills 0-15.
BC5 = temperatures/conditions/wind chills below zero.
The BC meter does go above BC5, but it's rather self-defeating. Once the temperature sinks under 20 degrees below zero, the testicles instinctively retreat up into the body cavity, rendering the BC scale obsolete. It's science.
So Wednesday will be mostly sunny with moderate winds. Highs below freezing and lows in the upper teens. That places us in the BC3 range.
Thursday will be partly cloudy with light winds, intensifying late. High 35, low 21. (BC2, falling to BC3 in the evening.)
Friday looks sunny and rather windy. High 34, low 21. BC3, falling to BC4 overnight.
Saturday will be similar, but with diminished winds. High 38, low 24. BC1-BC2.
Sunday is the same—in conditions, in temperatures, and in BC levels. So is Monday.
Tuesday 1/8 and Wednesday 1/9 will be a bit milder (highs in the mid 40s) with variable cloudiness and a slight chance of snow/rain. BC1 in the daytime, BC2 at night.
Sunny and windy on Thursday 1/10 with highs in the mid 40s and lows in the mid 20s. (Again, BC1 during the day, BC2 at night.)
Friday 1/11 looks cloudy with some rain showers possible. High 48, low 40. BC1, but BC2 in the evening and in the chilly rain.
Saturday and Sunday will be sunny and chillier. Highs in the upper 30s, lows in the lower 30s. BC1 in the day, BC2 at night.
Monday 1/14 and Tuesday 1/15 look potentially interesting. Temperatures will be in the 30s and some precipitation will be through, so we could see some snow or freezing rain out of this. I will keep an eye on this situation and update you.
Thereafter, it appears that temperatures will rise (highs in the upper 40s), then fall. The second half of January looks to be more precipitation-heavy than the first half of the month. I also expect us to hit BC5 by the end of January, so we have that to look forward to.
Stay tuned for updates, and happy 2013!
Windy today ... and more snow on Saturday?
Let's get right to it.
Partly sunny today and windy: sustained winds as high as high as 25mph with gusts as high as 40mph. High 34, but wind chills will be in the low 20s. Tonight will still be windy (but less so) and temperatures will drop to the mid 20s (with wind chills in the mid teens).
Friday looks partly sunny with increasing cloudiness late; high 38, low 26.
Saturday brings another storm. Snow begins around 7am and begins to taper by about 5pm, ending by about 9pm. Accumulations will be in the 2-4 inches range.
Sunday (and the ensuing 4 days or so) will bring the coldest weather we've seen so far this season. Highs around 33, lows in the upper teens. In fact, the entire first half of January is looking cold in this way.
Next really good chance of snow after this weekend is still January 9-10...
Parade of Storms this week and beyond...
It's the night before the night before Christmas, and things are looking interesting for the coming week and beyond. Here's what to expect in the area...
Monday 12/24: A few snow showers in the afternoon; a coating to an inch of accumulation. Snow mixed with freezing rain tapering to drizzle/flurries overnight. Some places will wake up to a dusting on Christmas morning, which will be delightful. High 40, low 30.
Tuesday 12/25: Overcast with clearing skies late. High 42, low 28.
Wednesday 12/26: Snow, sleet, freezing rain to begin; mixing with, then changing to, rain. Temperatures holding steady in the mid to upper 30s.
Thursday 12/27: Overcast and windy with a few flurries in the morning and afternoon. High 38, low 26.
Friday 12/28: Mostly cloudy with persistent breezy conditions. High 39, low 25.
Saturday 12/29: Snowstorm possible. Highs in the mid 30s. Stay tuned for updates.
Sunday 12/30: Overcast and colder. High 35, low 25.
Monday 12/31: Overcast and still colder. High 33, low 17.
Tuesday 1/1/13: Super cold. High only in the upper 20s. Snowy, too, maybe--lasting into Wednesday the 2nd.
Beyond: Really cold. It's January, after all. Next good chance of a snowstorm is January 9th-10th.
As always, stay tuned for updates...and I hope you all have a safe and relaxing holiday season...
Will it snow Wednesday?
In a few words: it's not likely.
While we are seeing a pattern that is becoming both wetter and colder, I don't see the storm next week coming together in the right way to give us a snow event.
First, a major honor for stage, screen, and song legend David Hasselhoff. People Magazine's Sexiest Man Alive 2012? No, that title was inexplicably bestowed on wooden-acting douchecake Channing Tatum rather than The Hoff. Time Magazine's Person of the Year 2012? Nah. The readers' poll selected Kim Jong-Un for that distinction; the magazine's choice will be announced on December 19th, but is unlikely to honor the Hoff's immeasurable contributions to humanity. Past winners have included George W. Bush (twice!) and his daddy; Newt Gingrich; The Protestor; and even You.
Perhaps more importantly, Britons named the Christmas Consultant star as the person with whom they'd most like to have a Christmas photo taken.
(Apparently this poll was sponsored by Nikon, and Hasselhoff braved sub-freezing temperatures for a photo shoot that married Baywatch with Yuletide cheer--highlights of which I have sprinkled throughout this forecast.)
Here's what I think we can expect in the last two weeks of 2012:
Sunday 12/16: cloudy with a brief shower or two this afternoon; foggy tonight. High 54, low 42.
Monday 12/17: a foggy morning; then rainy, mostly in the afternoon and evening. High 52, low 44.
Tuesday 12/18: mostly cloudy and continued mild for this time of year. A shower or two early, then clearing and becoming quite windy. Temperatures dropping throughout the day. High 56, low 34.
Wednesday 12/19: partly to mostly cloudy; breezy and chilly. High 49, low 34.
Thursday 12/20: overcast with breezy conditions. Rain likely, especially later in the day. High 50, low 42.
Friday 12/21: sunny, super-windy, and colder. High of 42 will actually feel 10-15 degrees colder due to the wind. Low 29. (Note: if the world ends on this date, the above forecast is invalid--as are the ones below. I am 96.5% sure the world will not end on this date, however.)
Saturday 12/22: sunny and breezy. High 41, low 30.
Sunday 12/23: breezy and colder; partly cloudy. High 38, low 29.
Monday 12/24: continued cold; partly sunny. High 39, low 33.
Tuesday 12/25: varibly cloudy. Clouding up more as the day goes on. High 43, low 35.
Wednesday 12/26: overcast with rain showers, ending before temperatures drop below freezing. High 50, low 26.
Thursday 12/27: wintry mix to start, then becoming all rain. (Stay tuned for updates as this event becomes clearer.) High 43, low 31.
Friday 12/28: cloudy, chilly, breezy. High 42, low 30.
Saturday 12/29: cloudy, chilly, breezy. (Stop me if you've heard this before.) High 44, low 33.
Sunday 12/30: cloudy, milder, less breezy. High 49, low 34.
Monday 12/31: cloudy, a bit of rain. High 48, low 32.
Tuesday 1/1/13: cloudy and continued milder. High 50, low 36.
Thereafter: colder, with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the mid to upper 20s. Next chance of frozen precipitation comes in January 5th and 6th...
Snow Update: overnight freeze?
A week ago, I arrived at school (for an in-service day) to find the stairwell lined with streamers, balloons, and candid shots of me. As I reached the top of the stairs, a row of my colleagues/friends serenaded me by singing "Happy Birthday" whilst wearing David Hasselhoff masks.
These masks--each one, a life-sized head-shot of The Most Hoff fastened to a long wooden skewer--are works of genius. And I decided that I had to incorporate one into my everyday life. So I jammed one into the backseat driver's side window-crevice of my sweet hoopty. See below.
And so it is with this emblem of Hasselhovian magnificence that I make my way about town. And it is just this Hofftastic countenance that I credit with saving my life.
Over the break, I was driving along Perkiomen Avenue when I pulled up at a stoplight behind a car that held a driver and passenger, both of whom appeared to be texting. In fact, the driver's very last concern in the world seemed to be the operation of her vehicle.
It's relevant here to note that these two young women--as I realized later--had a rather rough look about them. They had the kind of hard look that seems to glare out at the world, just daring someone to mess with them.
But again, I didn't realize this until later.
The light turned green, and the car in front of me did not move. A few beats went by, and I sounded an alert with my horn that was intended to be friendly. You know, "Hey there! Hi. Not sure if you had noticed, but the light has changed! Alrighty..." rather than, "Move your ass!"
Apparently, they took it as the latter.
I had overtaken them at some point soon thereafter, and at the next two-lane opportunity, the rode my back bumper hard, then zoomed up alongside me--bent on revenge or mayhem. I think they intended to holler (not holla) at me, or run me off the road, or ram me. Or shoot me. Hoff knows what.
But just then, a funny thing happened: they began laughing merrily, and waved in the most amiable way.
They had seen The Face of The Hoff, and it had tamed them.
So it snowed most of the day, and if I had a nickel for every time a student asked me if we were going to get out early, I'd have my very own authentic K.I.T.T.
We got about what I thought - an inch or two in Berks. Graterford and Skippack picked up a bit over three inches. Elverson and some places in the Poconos were "sweet spots" with four and a half inches. Roads were a bit treacherous this morning--particularly secondary roads, which quickly became snow-covered. Not sure that a delay would have done us any good, and once we were in school, an early dismissal wouldn't have made much sense either.
Yes, this is David Hasselhoff dressed as Captain Hook, atop K.I.T.T. And yes, that is David Hasselhoff in the poster over his own right shoulder, photobombing himself. And yes, if you look closely, you can see the photographer in the glare on the hood--all of which makes this photo the perfect example of Hasselicious meta-promotion.Temperatures are expected to get well below freezing tonight (into the mid 20s around here), so the slushy wetness on the roads can freeze into black ice. This slipperyness may persist into early tomorrow morning, but by the time most of us are making our way to work, the sun should dry things out. As a result, I'm only predicting a 20% chance of delay on Wednesday 11/28.
Wednesday turns out mostly sunny but breezy and cold, with a high only in the upper 30s.
Becoming milder toward the weekend - Friday will get into the 40s; Saturday and Sunday will see highs into the mid 50s. Rain is possible on Sunday, and as well through much of new week.
Next really good chance of frozen precipitation for us in December 11th-12th, but that's two weeks away, so let's just relax.
It is a nipping and an eager air.
Horatio's observation came to mind this evening: the air seems much colder than the mid 30s and seems to portend wintry doom.
So what can we expect from this storm?
Temperatures are dropping rapidly, so most of what we'll see will be snow.
(Note: forecast area for this storm includes Lehigh Valley, Berks, Montco, Chester, Bucks, and central/north Jersey. Lancaster, Philly, south Jersey and Delaware will see more mixing and less snow.)
Light snow begins 2-3am and becomes steady for the morning commute. Snow will stick to roads, particularly as surface temperatures remain below freezing and the sun has yet to rise.
Snow mixes with (and briefly changes to) rain in the afternoon as temperatures rise above freezing, then ends as snow in the early evening. Steadiest period of snow will be roughly 6am-12noon. This is a fast-moving storm, so the it will ... well, it will move right on through.
Accumulations: an inch or two generally. We could see a bit more with banding, especially in the higher elevations. Indications are that some areas could see as much as 3-5 inches--but most places, just an inch or two. (Philly and the other areas mentioned get just a coating to an inch of slushy precipitation.)
Delays/cancellations: Considering the two or three (or much more, in Jersey) days we had off for Sandy, I don't see administrators burning a snow day for this pittance. Delay isn't out of the question, since the roads should be less treacherous after sunrise (a couple of minutes after 7am).
Chance of cancellation: 15%
Chance of delay: 35%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday: 10%
So there you have it.
Blown forecast. I've gotta do a better job.
Obviously, the storm did a heckuva job yesterday.
*ahem*
Stayed east when we thought it would come west. My hat's off to the Nor'easter for giving 110% and really switching it up on us.
*hep-hrrrm*
I mean, we did some nice things in there.
*mmmmmmgch*
The storm did dump snow in some areas, just not where we thought. Freehold had 13 inches, and parts of Connecticut got 8-10 inches.
*sighhhh-cough!*
But I said it was gonna give us some snow, and I take full responsibility for that. All we saw were a few squalls and some wind later on. And that's unacceptable. That's on me.
*claghhh*
Bottom line is, I've gotta do a better job. I've gotta put the forecast models in better positions.
*hack!*
This is fixable. A forecast here and a forecast there, and pretty soon we're back in it.
*ghghghghgm*
We're all in this together. A today we're all gonna be blown: winds will be in the 15-25mph range with gusts as high as 35mph. We'll know more about that tomorrow, since that is when we'll be able to look back and say, this is what happened. Because hindsight's 20/20, and we wanna play aggressive, emotional meteorology.
*mghaaaa*
Nicer weather is ahead. Sunny Friday with a high of 55. Sunny Saturday with a high of 62. Sunny Sunday with a high of 65. And mostly sunny on Monday with a high of 66. Next chance of rain is on Tuesday, so we'll see what happens with that. Thanksgiving week looks like a rainy mess, but we're not gonna get caught looking ahead.
*Hm-uhm...hm-uhm!*
Time's yours.
Nor'easter Snow Update - Wednesday, November 7th
Alright. So, it looks like snow now. Flurries in the morning, then starting in earnest by noon. Total accumulation 2-4 inches, mainly on grassy areas. This storm has a lot of moisture available to it, and evaporational cooling will produce a column of cold air, giving us more frozen precipitation than we anticipated.
It's wet snow, mixed at times with rain. Temperatures holding steady in the mid 30s; becoming windier throughout the day. Precipitation tapers by Thursday morning's commute.
Impacts: roads will just be wet, but we could see some slick spots overnight into Thursday morning. In heavier squalls, visibility will be reduced (mainly during the afternoon/evening commute tonight).
Accumulations could be higher in some areas where "banding" (a concentration of heavy precipitation) sets up.
Some widely scattered power outages due to fallen trees (already weakened by Sandy, then finished off with heavy, wet snow) and wind. Winds will increase to 25mph (sustained) with 35-40mph gusts later today.
I'm placing a 60% chance on early dismissal today, and a 30% chance of delayed start tomorrow.
Stay tuned for updates as necessary...