Wintry mix early Tuesday; again Friday-Saturday?
Hi there!
Here's what to expect tomorrow:
Precipitation arrives by 7 or 8am on Tuesday. It will begin as a bit of ice and snow, but temperatures will rise quickly - into the mid 40s by afternoon. We could see some slick spots during the AM commute, but I think we see very few problems from this. Windy in the afternoon.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 20%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 5%
Sunny, breezy, and colder on Wednesday: high 34, low 19.
Continued breezy and increasingly cloudy on Thursday: high 36, low 24.
Friday looks interesting, with temperatures holding steady in the 30s throughout the day. We could see accumulating snow and travel delays from this one - particularly Friday evening into Saturday - but there are too many factors to make the call yet.
Stay tuned for updates!
Tomorrow's storm and weekend snow showers
Today will be mostly sunny and windy with a high in the mid 40s.
Tomorrow is when the precipitation comes. Rain begins around 2-3pm. Begins to mix with snow by 10pm, then change over to all snow by 1am. Snow tapers by 6am. Total accumulations 1-3 inches.
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 10%
Chance of delay Thursday, 30%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 15%
[insert Debbie Downer sound effect here]
Thursday turns out plenty sunny and breezy with a high in the low 40s.
Friday looks sunny and less windy with highs in the mid 40s.
The weekend will be colder and breezy with some flurries and show showers. No biggie. Highs in the mid 30s, lows in the low 20s.
A bit of rain to begin next week - but I see rain (and not snow) here. Colder by midweek with highs only around freezing.
Next good snow / ice chance I see is in the period from the 23rd to the 26th. I see a warming trend to end February and begin March.
Overnight icing potential, milder temperatures, and looking ahead...
We are in for some rain tomorrow, and it will get warmer. But there is the potential for freezing rain at the beginning. Here's what I see:
Rain begins overnight around 2 or 3am. Temperatures will hover around freezing during the morning commute, raising the possibility of compromised travel. I don't see it, though; the roads should be fine.
Chance of delay Monday: 30%
Chance of cancellation Monday: 10%
Temperatures will get up to the upper 40s on Monday. Rain tapers by 3-4pm.
Clouds mixed with sunshine on Tuesday; windy conditions. High 44, low 26.
The Hoff with a hawk. Why is he holding a hawk? Why is he wearing a tantalizingly unbuttoned, tasseled leather jacket? Why does a faint but dashing beard adorn his no-nonsense visage? Why the piercing, menacing glare? It is because it is.Mostly cloudy and breezy on Wednesday. High 43, low 28. Keeping an eye on the possibility for some snow overnight Wednesday into Thursday, but right now it doesn't look like much.
Thursday will be partly cloudy with light winds. High 44, low 30.
Plenty of sunshine on Friday. High 41, low 26.
The weekend looks overcast and windy with some flurries and snow showers around. (I don't see any accumulation or travel disruptions here.) Highs in the mid 30s; lows in the mid 20s.
Sunshine and milder conditions to begin next week - highs in the low to mid 40s, lows around 30. Warmer and rainy (just rain) by Thursday 2/21 and Friday 2/22. Warming trend thereafter.
So...is that it for winter, then? I think we'll have more to deal with.
Stay tuned for udpates...
7:45pm update: revised snow totals and percentages
Some fine-tuning:
I still see light snow beginning overnight, but temperatures will only rise into the mid-30s, so I think the snow will hang around a bit longer. Look for light snow lingering until 10 or 11am, then rain until about 3 or 4pm, then changing back to snow. In this later period of snow, Berks could see accumulations in the range of 3-6 inches. (Since it appears there will be a shorter period of rain in between the light snow and the heavier snow, the snow accumulations go up--as do our chances of having a snow day.)
Allentown gets mostly snow, accumulating 6-8 inches.
Mostly rain for Philadelphia. Could see 2-4 inches on the back end.
Lawrenceville, New Jersey looks like a rainier solution. 4-6 inches.
Nutley, New Jersey is looking like mostly snow, and a virtually guaranteed snow day. Accumulations in the range of 10-14 inches.
Still seeing historic amounts for Boston: 24 inches or more.
Back to Berks now: travel will become hazardous, starting around 4 or 5pm Friday and extending to late Saturday morning. High on Saturday will be 34 with strong winds and gradual clearing. Low Saturday night will be a frigid 15.
Revised percentages:
Chance of delay Friday, 20%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 60%
Chance of early dismissal Friday, 40%
Still looking like a delay is possible on Monday as well.
Stay tuned for updates!
The timing is pants.
For those unfamiliar with the term, "pants" is a British colloquialism meaning "not up to the task" or "not ideal" - as in, This storm looked right spiffing, but then the storm track went pear-shaped, and now I'm afraid it's pants.
[It looked great, but went wrong, and now it's awful.]
I'm stalling, obviously. This is a tricky forecast, and I feel like a lot is riding on it. I mean, not in a fate-of-the-free-world kind of way, but in a cementing-my-reputation-as-a-credible-forecaster kind of way.
Here it is, readers.
The forecast.
Light snow develops overnight – 11pm to 6am, on and off. Accumulations will be light: a coating to an inch at most. Precipitation will change to sleet, then plain rain, by about 7am.
Light rain is expected from 7 or 8am through late morning; thereafter, the rain will intensify throughout the afternoon. I see this period (comprising the entire school day) as rain for us, not snow.
Then we could get some “wraparound” snow. As the system leaves, we’ll see precipitation change back over to snow (maybe by 7 or 8pm) and taper overnight, ending before dawn Saturday. Winds will intensify Friday evening, reaching up to 25mph (sustained) with 35mph gusts overnight and throughout the day Saturday, diminishing by Saturday evening.
Accumulations from this “back end” of the storm will be in the range of 1-3 inches.
Philadelphia will see mostly rain – maybe an inch or two of snow on the back end.
Allentown will see more frozen precipitation and more sleet mixed in. Plain rain will fall only in the afternoon; accumulations will be in the 4-6 inches range.
Nutley, New Jersey will have a fairly mild day Friday dominated by rain, but will face higher winds (gusting into the upper 40s) and more prodigious accumulations on the back end (8-10 inches).
No, I will not stop saying “back end.”
Lawrenceville, New Jersey will see rain for most of the day Friday, switching over to snow by 8 or 9pm (with strong winds), producing back end snowfall of 3-5 inches.
Connecticut, northern New York, interior Massachusetts, and southern parts of New Hampshire and Vermont seem to be in the "bull's-eye" of this thing: these places could get 18-24 inches of snow (or even more) and will see blizzard conditions Friday night into Saturday.
Cancellation potentials for the immediate forecast area (Berks):
Chance of delay Friday, 15%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 30%
Chance of early dismissal Friday, 10%
The Sunday-to-Monday storm, which actually looks more promising (for us, at least) than this Nor'easter...I'm looking at a bit of snow and ice that could be fortuitous timing wise, arriving from late Sunday night into Monday morning, so a delay would make sense for Monday.
Stay tuned for updates...
Downgrade for tonight; upgrade for Friday?
Hasselhoff reads Hasselhoff.
Last night's clipper looked robust on the radar as it came to east-southeast into Pennsylvania. An impressive area of moisture that promised to give us a nice couple of inches.
And then it got a shredded up in the mountains. (Essentially, the mountains act as a buffer, slowing down some clipper systems and pilfering their moisture.) On the radar, this looks like the ethereal disappearance of exhaled breath on a very cold day. It is very sad, particularly when one has expressed such confidence in a system's performance.
**sighhhh**
The percentages offered yesterday were unreasonably inflated. I have fired my statistician, my esthetician, and and my tactician. This type of half-assery is unacceptable around here.
Tonight's clipper is even more moisture-starved that last night's. It will leave a coating to a half-inch at most across the area; some places may see nothing but a few flurries.
Chance of delay Wednesday: 30%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 10%
Wednesday will be seasonably cold (highs in the upper 30s) and quite windy, so expect wind chills in the 20s.
Thursday will be seasonably cold and less windy. Both Wednesday and Thursday will be fairly overcast.
Thursday night into Friday is looking interesting. Light snow develops overnight Thursday into Friday, mixing with ice and creating a travel mess for the morning commute. Precipitation changes over to plain rain by the afternoon. Timing and amounts are subject to change due to various factors, and there is a lot of data (and a lot of model runs) to evaluate between now and then. But I'm going to make a preliminary (subject to change) call for school disruptions.
Chance of delay Friday: 70%
Chance of cancellation Friday: 40%
Milder next week. Then maybe some President's Day action? Winter's not over yet...
Stay tuned for updates!
The Clipper Train!
Surprise delay for a couple of districts in Berks this morning (including mine!). There could be more of that on the way.
First, I should define the term "clipper":
An Alberta clipper is an area of low pressure that moves southeastwardly (from approximately Alberta, hence the name) and rather quickly. The second part of the name derives from the clipper ships which were the fastest sea-going vessels in the mid-1800s.
These systems typically produce light accumulations—a coating here, two inches there—and bring sharp drops in temperature. With clippers, it’s also common to see some areas get two to three inches, while others get a mere coating or nearly nothing.
That’s what gave some of us light accumulations on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. And a couple more clippers will move through on Monday night and Tuesday night. Clipper train! Choo choo!! Sorry.
Today will be sunny and breezy with increasing cloudiness toward afternoon. We’ll see light snow and flurries develop by late afternoon, with the period of steadiest precipitation from 8pm to 1am. Accumulations will range from a coating in some places to two inches in others. Highs in the upper 20s, lows in the lower 20s.
Chance of delay Tuesday: 65%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday: 20%
Tuesday will bring another clipper. Light snow develops around 8pm Tuesday, tapering by 5 or 6am. Accumulations will be in the 1-2 inch range. Highs just above freezing; lows in the mid-20s.
Chance of delay Wednesday: 75%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 35%
Clearing with times of clouds and sun on Wednesday and Thursday; highs in the upper 30s.
There’s a chance for snow and/or rain from Thursday night into Friday morning. I’m going to hold off on percentages until closer to the time. Stay tuned for updates as this system comes into clearer focus.
Milder next week, but we’re still looking at the potential for morning ice on Monday 2/11. Thereafter, I see a warming trend with highs in the 40s and 50s; no promising winter weather potentials…
It's just a little clipper...
…but it could be a travel nuisance on Saturday evening.
Here’s what to expect:
Light to moderate snow develops by 4-5pm on Saturday. The period of steadiest snow will likely be from about 11pm to 2am, but whatever falls will be intermittent. That said, be careful if you’re heading out after dark on Saturday. It doesn’t take much in terms of accumulation or rate to produce a treacherous roadway. The snow tapers to light snow showers, ending by early Sunday afternoon. Total accumulations from this system will be a coating in some places to up to two inches in others. The system is quick-moving and moisture-starved, so don’t expect much.
The good news is that these winds—so strong you find yourself getting pissed off at them when you go outside—will diminish overnight tonight, and will be rather calm throughout the weekend. The temperature overnight will get down to a frigid 14.
Temperatures on Saturday will hold steady in the mid-20s. The high on Sunday will be 34; low will be 18.
Hasselhoff: the only thing that could improve the Puppy Bowl.
Monday and Tuesday look overcast and still cold with highs just above freezing (32F) and lows in the lower 20s. (There’s another little clipper that moves through on Tuesday, but I don’t see anything impressive thus far. Just some light snow showers and flurries at best.)
Wednesday and Thursday will feature more sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Friday the 8th looks interesting: snow likely from mid-morning to early afternoon, then a bit of ice and freezing rain mixing in. Temperatures holding steady at or just below freezing.
Next weekend will see clearing with highs in the lower 40s and lows around 30.
Next week (beginning with Monday 2/11) looks mild and wet, with rain likely on Tuesday 2/12 and Wednesday 2/13. Highs will range from the mid-40s to mid-50s.
Aside from 2/8, I don’t really see much in the way of winter weather potential. That’s a bit distressing to me as an amateur meteorologist, but I’m hearing a lot of “I’m ready for spring” now that we’ve crossed into February…
Stay tuned for updates!