Wintry weather: Monday 3/18 and Tuesday 3/19
Top o' the ... evenin' to ya...
Light snow and flurries possible Monday morning, falling steadier toward late morning. We may see some mixing with sleet in the late afternoon and evening, but I see this as mainly snow - kind of like Saturday's action. Expect 2-3 inches of accumulation, but mainly on grassy surfaces. As we saw on Saturday, though, any amount of snowfall can cause slippery conditions. (Hell, people around here forget how to drive when it rains.)
Former Sixer Charles Barkley, one of my favorite players of all time. Barkley, a notorious Chapstick addict, revealed this week that in his playing days, in order to keep his lips fully moisturized and prevent them from chapping, he filled his belly button with Vaseline so he could apply it regularly during games. I'm not really sure how I feel about this--my first reaction is, gross--but I just wanted to share.Temperatures holding steady in the mid 30s. Precipitation changes to rain (and even freezing rain in higher elevations) overnight before ending Tuesday, mid-morning.
Driving hazards are possible anytime during this event, but the most serious threat seems to be Monday evening.
(Side note: The Weather Channel is calling this Winter Storm Ukko. Seriously? Just stop.)
Percentages:
Chance of delay Monday, 10%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 20%
Chance of early dismissal Monday, 25%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 30%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 10%
Chance of Wednesday, 100%
Temperatures below normal for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
Stay tuned for updates!
Temperatures below normal. No blizzard. Also, The Hoff with another bird.
Breezy and warmer this afternoon with highs in the upper 40s. We’ll see increasing winds (and clouds) toward evening. Could see a rain or show shower here and there, but nothing significant or accumulating.
Overcast and chilly Saturday with some showers and drizzle; some wet snow could mix in at times, but nothing to be concerned about. High 42, low 30.
Sunday will see highs in the low 40s; partly cloudy and breezy with increasing clouds and the chance for snow or rain developing toward midnight.
Rain and snow on Monday – mainly rain, as temperatures will hold steady in the upper 30s to low 40s.
(Note: it takes very little snow to make the roads slick, even when surface temperatures are mild and it’s just slush on the roadway. Use caution if it is—or has been—snowing, so keep an eye out from late Friday night through Monday afternoon.)
The Hoff screams "Get me outta here, K.I.T.T.!" at his pet white parrot. God, I wish the parrot's name was K.I.T.T. Or Mitch (his Baywatch character). Or Snapper (his character on The Young and the Restless)! Or Heinrich, or something appropriately German. Do you know what he actually named the bird? Simon Cowell. Tuesday looks cloudy, windy, and cool: highs in the low 40s, lows in the upper 20s.
Wednesday looks sunny, but colder and continued windy. Highs in the upper 30s will feel like the lower 30s. Lows in the upper 20s will feel like the lower 20s.
Thursday and Friday will be milder (expect a 3.5% rise in temperatures) with times of clouds and sun. Highs both days in the upper 40s; lows in the low to mid 30s.
Next weekend will be milder still (highs reaching into the 50s) with a bit of rain possible on Saturday the 23rd.
The following week looks rainy and cool. Highs only in the low to mid 40s.
We end March in the 50s and begin April in the 60s.
Warmer, colder. Blizzard next week.
Loyal weather-friends,
Well it sure felt like spring this weekend and today, as temperatures rose into the low 60s. But don’t put away those coats and hats just yet: big changes are in the forecast. For reals. I don’t think we’re going to see temperatures in the 60s again until April.
Rain develops later tonight (10-11) and intensifies overnight. Temperatures hold steady in the lower 50s right through late morning. Rain will be heavy at times, particularly late Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon, before tapering by late afternoon. Breezy, too.
As a cold front moves through, temperatures will plummet from an afternoon high in the mid 50s to a low early Wednesday morning in the mid 30s.
Overcast, chilly, and windy on Wednesday with a high in the upper 40s; overnight lows will dip into the upper 20s.
Thursday will be partly sunny, even windier, and even colder: highs in the low to mid 40s; lows in the low to mid 20s.
Friday looks sunnier with diminishing wind. High in the mid 40s, low in the low 30s.
The weekend looks partly sunny (Saturday) and partly cloudy (Sunday) with the chance of a few snow showers Saturday night. Highs will be in the mid 40s, lows in the low 30s.
Next week begins with a rainy Monday, followed by a snowy Tuesday. Seriously, several models are indicating a blizzard for our area on the 19th. Some of the material is compelling, but jeez… didn’t we just go careening down this road like giddy little schoolgirls, only to have our snow-day hopes dashed by a cruelly indifferent Mother Nature?
[Sidetrack: When I fretted aloud about the forecast (and the fact that my entire faux-meteorological reputation was at stake) before the non-event last week, one of my colleagues said sympathetically, “I get it. This is your Super Bowl.” Well, my friends, if this was my Super Bowl, then I was Janet Jackson in the 2004 halftime show, haplessly scrambling to cover the exposed right boob of my forecasting ineptitude, which had been laid bare by a ruthless Justin Timberlake (aka Mother Nature). Perhaps the metaphor is a bit strained, perhaps it is inapt. But I think I’ve made my point.]
Where was I? Oh, this blizzard on Tuesday the 19th. I’m not making any public statements on this one yet.
Next week will end with chilly rain, too. Highs in the low to mid 40s, rainy on the 22nd and 23rd.
Warmer thereafter – ending the month in the 50s, starting April in the 60s. Expect rain and clouds, though.
Stay tuned for updates!
Midweek storm update - Tuesday noon
There's a lot of disagreement on this storm - some have us getting slammed with 8-12 inches of snow, some have us getting a coating to a couple of inches. Potential complicating factors like timing, mixing, borderliine surface temperatures, sun angle, and the formation of a "dry slot" (an precipitation-free area that forms inside a precipitation field) have made meteorologists reluctant to make a definitive forecast.
(Some in the meteorological community even speak of this as a "nowcasting" event - one for which all meteorologists can do is watch the storm as it happens and project what will happen next. What this really means is that they can't commit to a forecast, so they invented an oxymoronic term to deflect attention from this fact.)
So here is my best semi-educated guess:
Light snow develops around 7-9am Wednesday for our area, becoming steadier toward late morning. We will see the snow mixing with rain between 10 and 1, then becoming all rain for a time in the afternoon before changing back to all snow by 5 or 6pm Wednesday. The snow will continue through the evening, will taper a bit overnight, and will end just prior to the Thursday morning rush.
School closing meter:
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 60%
Chance of delay Wednesday: 15%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday: 35%
Chance of cancellation Thursday: 70%
Chance of delay Thursday: 80%
Accumulations:
Philadelphia and points south and east, 1-3 inches, lots of mixing
Northern and western suburbs of Philadelphia (much of Bucks, Montgomery, and Chester Counties), Reading, Allentown, 4-6 inches, a bit of early mixing; locally higher amounts
Lancaster, York, northern Maryland, moderate mixing, heavy snow, 6-10 inches
So that's my call as of noon. I will send out updates this afternoon and/or evening if my thinking changes...
Midweek storm update - Monday evening
This weekend's models took the storm south of our area, but today's models are trending a bit northward.
Bottom line: I like what I'm seeing. The storm is looking bigger, and heavier precipitation means more snow for us.
My call tonight is that snow begins early Wednesday morning (3-4am) and ends as light snow showers by early Thursday morning. There may be a bit of mixing (with rain) on Wednesday afternoon, but I expect the bulk of precipitation to fall as snow. I'm going with accumulations in the range of 6-8 inches in our area.
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 70%.
Chance of delay Wednesday: 20%.
Chance of cancellation Thursday: 40%.
Chance of delay Thursday: 70%.
Winds will be strong (25mph, with some gusts in the 30s) during this storm, with higher winds at the coasts, leading to coastal flooding and beach erosion. We could see some power outages in this area due to the winds and the heavy, wet snow on trees and power lines.
All of us here at monsoonmartin will be keeping a close eye on this storm. Stay tuned for updates as we fine-tune the forecast in terms of track, timing, and troubles (had to preserve the alliteration there)...
Midweek storm update - Sunday afternoon
My good people.
First, thanks to all who have liked my facebook page. 221 likes and counting!
Second, an update on the midweek storm:
The timing now looks like early Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. So if it hits us, we're in for snow days Wednesday and Thursday.
The latest model solutions have been showing a track just south of our area; that would mean that West Virginia, northern Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, D.C., and Baltimore would get the brunt of the snow. Philadelphia would get rain, maybe a few slushy inches. Allentown, Berks, and areas north would get almost nothing.
But changing one's forecast according to the vicissitudes of each model run (most of them come out every six hours) is disparaged in meteorological circles as "model hugging." In other words, one should make one's forecast based on all the available information, rather than using the models themselves as a de facto forecast. It's lazy, says the meteorological community. You're better than that.
My "gut" says that model runs (which are in some disagreement in terms of track) will come northward in the next 36 hours, so I'm going to stick to my original forecast (6-12 inches and high winds), with my "final call" forthcoming on Monday night.
Stay tuned for updates!
Monster storm likely next week--but do not panic
Well. Meteorological winter is over (it runs from the beginning of December through the end of February), so of course it’s time to talk about a snowstorm.
Screwy.
The timing will likely be late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.
Saturday 3/2: Periods of clouds and sun; breezy. High 42, low 28.
Sunday 3/3: Partly sunny, breezy and colder. High 38, low 25.
Monday 3/4: Partly sunny and breezy again. High 38, low 25.
Tuesday 3/5: Sun gives way to clouds; milder. Snow likely late. High 44, low 30.
Wednesday 3/6: Snow, rain, and wind. If this hits us, we’ll see near-blizzard conditions, widespread power outages, and more than a foot of snow. And, more than likely, school cancellations on both Wednesday and Thursday.
I’m not ready to make a definitive forecast yet, but I am leaning more strongly toward this is going to happen than toward I don’t see it.
The Hoff gives you both barrels of beefcake.It will melt for the most part by the weekend of the 9th and 10th, as both days will see brilliant sunshine and temperatures rising into the 50s.
I will be watching the forecast models closely this weekend, as well as how the system behaves as it impacts the Midwest on Sunday and Monday. It should come into clearer focus as we get into the window of 48-72 hours before the event, so that would be Sunday.
Stay tuned for updates, obs.
Friday - Saturday storm and beyond...
Complicated storm arrives tomorrow evening, but we will see mostly light rain and drizzle from it.
The Weather Channel is calling it "Winter Storm Q." You know how TWC decided to name winter storms this year? And they had Nemo and Luna, et al? Yeah, they apparently couldn't come up with a Q name. I mean, how difficult is it? Quincy, Quentin, Quadrant, Quail-face, Quim Brown? Sheesh.
Here's what to expect:
Friday begins with sunny skies, but clouds (and winds) will increase throughout the day. High will reach the upper 30s.
Drizzle starts around 8 or 9pm. We may see some slick surfaces, so use caution when driving, especially late Friday night. Early Saturday morning may see some slippy spots, too. However, I think for the most part, roads will just be wet with this event.
Saturday, mid-afternoon.Saturday will be rainy (showers and drizzle), cool (holding steady in the 30s) and a bit breezy. Tapering toward evening, then clearing skies.
Sunday looks sunny and breezy; high 40. Monday looks sunny; high 44.
[Once again, it looks as if upstate New York and much of New England will get slammed by this storm. Everyone south of New York City will see all (or mostly) rain.]
The next decent chances of wintry weather are Wednesday 2/27 and Friday 3/1, but even these are far from blockbusters.
Stay tuned for udpates!