Mild start to the week, then colder...
Forecast!
Mild with a few showers overnight. High winds developing overnight, then continuing breeziness on Monday. High Monday in the mid to upper 60s. There may be some issues with scattered power outages due to the wind (branches down and whatnot). Low Monday night will be in the mid 30s.
Tuesday will be much colder. Seriously, bundle up. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s, but with persistent breezes, it will feel like the 30s. Overnight low of 28.
Got to teach this soliloquy to a new crop of students on Friday. I saw a sea of profound boredom, but a few glimmers of wonder. It's these glimmers that keep me in the profession...Wednesday looks like more of the same: high in the mid to upper 40s, but with nearly calm winds, so that'll be nice. Oh, and sunshine. Lots of sunshine.
A little bit milder on Thursday - high of about 52 with partly cloudy skies. Continue that for Friday - high of about 54 with partly cloudy skies.
Friday night, another front comes through. Rain and drizzle, maybe even some fog into Saturday morning. Saturday is much colder again - high of only 44. Lows in the mid 20s.
Sunday and Monday will be ever colder: highs will struggle to reach 40, and lows will be around 24.
The remainder of next week looks kinda foul, actually. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s, clouds will predominate, and there's even the potential for a little bit of mixed precipitation in the period from Wednesday 11/27 through Friday 11/29. (I realize that's right over the Thanksgiving holiday, but I do not expect travel to be disrupted. Stay tuned for updates...)
Next weekend (Saturday 11/30 and Sunday 12/1) look kind of deja-vu-y. Highs around 40, overcast and drizzly conditions.
The first week of December looks cold (highs in the upper 30s, lows in the low 20s), but no snow.
And thereafter? I'm looking at an interesting system in the range of December 7th through 9th. Otherwise, you know, cold. I mean, it's winter. (I know it's not actual winter yet, but it's meteorological winter as of 12/1.)
As always, stay tuned for updates!
Will we or won't we?
So this Nor'easter for next week ... is it actually going to happen? Will we have a mid-November 2013 repeat of the Halloween storm of 2011?
Don't strap on your showshoes just yet, there, Amundsen.
Here's what to expect:
Monday 11/11: Breezy and increasingly cloudy during the day with highs in the mid 50s. When the sun goes down at 2:30pm (alright, it just seems that early; it's actually 4:50pm), we'll see more cloud cover and temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. Could be a few snow showers toward morning.
Why, you ask? I turn to Robert Kennedy for the answer: "There are those who look at Hoffs the way they are and ask why? I dream of Hoffs that never were and ask why not?"Tuesday 11/12: Breezy and colder with a morning snow shower or two. Clouds will break a bit toward afternoon, but temperatures will only reach a high of 43. Lows overnight into Wednesday morning will be in the mid 20s. Freaking brr.
Chance of school delay, 15%
Chance of school cancellation, 2.5%
Wednesday 11/13: Partly sunny and cold. High will struggle to reach 40. In fact, I don't even think it's going to get there. Let's call it 39. That's all we get. Back into the mid 20s overnight, too.
Thursday 11/14: Sunshine and milder, with the high reaching a balmy 51. Overnight lows still around freezing (32).
Friday 11/15: Sunny again. Highs in the mid 50s. Really nice fall day, you know? Leaves falling off the trees, crisp air, shit like that. Cornucopia of autumnal beauty.
The weekend: More of this - sunny with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Next week: Chilly (highs in the 40s) and rainy Monday and Tuesday. Then colder with highs reaching only into the low 40s. Overnight lows will dip into mid 20s again. If you haven't turned your heat on yet, I don't even know what to tell you. You're going to freeze your ass off, is what.
Next weekend: We're talking about the 23rd and 24th right here. They seem nice. A bit of cloud cover, highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s. Watching the potential for some ice Saturday night. Will keep you posted.
Thereafter: We're talking about the last week of November and into December right here. Nice, you know? What do you want me to say? It's hard to predict so far away. That's, like, three weeks! If someone tells you he or she knows beyond 5 to 7 days what the weather is going to be he or she is bulling your shit. (No, that's not it at all. It's not a separable phrasal verb. He or she is bullshitting you, is the way to say it. Anyway: full of shit.)
Stay tuned for updates!
Windy rainy cloudy sunny chilly windy cold (+ winter outlook).
My good people,
These titular adjectives are the conditions we'll see over the next 48 hours: windy, rainy, and cloudy, then sunny and chilly, then windy and cold. Ah, autumn...
Here's what to expect:
Mostly cloudy and very windy today with periods of rain, ending by around noon. Still unseasonably warm with highs reaching into the low to mid 70s. At kickoff tonight (Mifflin at Weiser), we'll be in the low 60s with diminishing winds. By the end of the game, we will be in the upper 50s.
Clouds mixed with sunshine and breezy tomorrow with a shower or two in the afternoon. Continued unseasonably warm with highs in the mid 60s. Getting chilly overnight, with highs in the low 40s.
Sunday 11/3 looks to be far chillier. It will be sunny but still breezy, and highs will only make it to the upper 40s. Sunday night will be cold as balls (speaking of which, see inset). We'll see clearing skies, diminishing winds, and temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 20s.
Next week starts out partly sunny and continued cold with highs again in the upper 40s. Overnight lows Monday will be around freezing (32°F). Tuesday will be sunny and a little more seasonable with highs in the mid 50s.
Wednesday 11/6 looks to start out sunny and gorgeous and reach a high in the mid 60s. Some rain develops at night and wraps up Thursday morning, after which temperatures will drop once again. Expect highs on Friday and Saturday to be in the low to mid 50s; it will be sunny and breezy both days.
Senhor Testiculo - "Mr. Balls" - is the real, actual, swear-to-God testicular cancer awareness mascot for Brazil's national cancer organization, Associação de Assistência as Pessoas com Câncer (AAPEC). It is a real thing and now you have seen it and you can't unsee it. You're welcome.Cloudy with some rain on Sunday 11/10 and Monday 11/11; highs in the low 50s.
The rest of that week looks chillier, with daytime highs in the mid 40s and overnight lows in the mid 20s.
So ... when will it snow? And what will the winter be like? Lots of snow days? Delays?
As many of you know, I consider long-term forecasting to be a fruitless folly, as it seeks to predict how an almost limitless array of meteorological factors will interact. A sound long-term forecast can be completely derailed if the jet stream dips south unexpectedly or we are the victims of some other unforeseen quirk of Mother Nature.
But winter forecasts are all the rage, and today is the first day of November (I know that because I heard my first Christmas carol in the grocery store this morning), so here goes.
According to the AAPEC, Mr. Balls has become "something of a celebrity" wherever he goes. "Both children and adults loved taking pictures with the mascot, a friendly snowman in the shape of a testicle." Disclaimer: testicular cancer is no laughing matter, and awareness can only be positive. But it takes a lot of ... nerve to create a human-sized, lifelike, unnervingly-detailed scrotum as the face of your publicity campaign.The winter solstice is December 21st and the vernal equinox is March 20th, so these dates mark the beginning and end of winter -- but meteorological winter is traditional considered as running from December 1st to February 28th.
Mild temperatures to begin the season, and I don't see any real snow potential until the last week in December.
January will actually be the opposite of what we're used to: milder to start, then getting colder and wetter.
February is the coldest and snowiest.
Over all: a little light. Not the blockbuster winter we have been wishing for...
Total snowfall: 22-25 inches.
School delays: 4.
School cancellations: 3.
Stay tuned for updates!
A blunk of rainsomeness.
My friends,
Since you became wet when you walked outdoors this morning, you already know that it is raining. If not, spoiler alert: it is raining.
See, look.
So how long will this blunk of squally, tempestuous weather last? To answer this question, we must discuss the origin of the moisture.
The storm contains some tropical elements - the remnants of Troical Storm Karen. But while we will see rain that is sometimes heavy, the impacts from this system should be minimal.
We will be besieged by gloomy weather through Saturday as a high pressure system keeps the storm churning just off the coast. Our immediate area (Berks) will be on the northern edge of the affected region. Here's the forecast, then, for Berks:
Thursday 10/10: Rain, heavy at times - the soakingest output of this storm for us. All day, all night. Temperatures hold steady in the mid 50s.
Friday 10/11: Overcast with rain and showers - and drizzle at times. Moist and dismal, though. Dreary and miserable. Temperatures may creep into the low 60s, but generally it will still be cool. Maybe a little breezier, too.
The Hoff reminds you: do not forget your umbrella. Lush, sexy hair does not simply happen by accident; it must be nurtured, coaxed, admired, and yes--protected from the elements.Saturday 10/12: Cloudy, misty, drizzly. Maybe a shower or two. Not a complete washout, but not a stroll-through-the-meadow type of day either. High in the mid 60s.
Sunday 10/13: Still cloudy, chance of a shower or two. Or some drizzle. Clearing a bit later, though. We may even see a few peeks of sunshine. High in the upper 60s.
Monday 10/14: Indigenous Genocide Day will be partly sunny with highs in the upper 60s to near 70.
More of the same for Tuesday 10/15 through Thursday 10/17.
Next Friday and Saturday look rainy again, I regret to inform you. But:
Sunday 10/20 will be a sunny, crisp, resplendent fall day. High in the low 60s with a stiff breeze. Overnight lows plummeting well down into the 40s (and maybe even the upper 30s!).
The following week will be chillier (highs in the 50s, lows in the 40s).
No snow on the horizon. I see a slow onset for winter this year: below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures over all in December. January, though, could pack a wallop.
Stay tuned!
High pressure dominates the first weeks of fall...
Hey there,
It's your old pal Monsoon here. Just thought I'd give you an update on the weather.
Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday will be partly sunny and pleasant with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 50s. (Saturday night into Sunday and Sunday night into Monday will see temperatures dip into the 40s, especially in rural areas.)
Wednesday 10/2 will be unseasonably warm with highs in the low 80s.
Thursday 10/3 will be even more unseasonably warm with highs in the mid 80s.
Friday 10/4 will see some clouds mixed with sun and highs in the upper 70s.
Next weekend looks variably cloudy and seasonably cooler with highs in the low 70s. There's the chance of a passing shower or two on Sunday.
Inexplicable. I can no longer explain or defend this man, or my bewildering affection for him.Next week (the week beginning Monday 10/7) will see some clouds and fog to start, with some showers possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 60s at the beginning of the week, but in the lower 60s by the end of the week. Throughout the week, overnight lows will dip well into the 40s.
Snow is likely on Saturday 10/12--
Naw. Just joshin'. We won't see temperatures dipping below freezing until mid-November, the way it looks now.
I'm working on a winter 2013-14 forecast (that's meteorological winter, December 1st through February 28th). Seasonal forecasts are generally a fool's errand, and involve a significant amount of guesswork. But it's what I do, so I will do it.
Unseasonably cool and dry...
...and that will continue for the foreseeable future.
After last week's heat wave, the weather over the past few days has been perfect: low humidity, highs in the low 80s, gentle breezes. The absolute best weather possible for this time of year.
This weekend will be a little hiccup in that trend. Expect increasing cloudiness and humidity throughout the day, with a scattered thunderstorm possible late this afternoon or this evening. Scattered storms are also possible on Sunday, which will be overcast and humid with temperatures generally holding steady in the 70s. When the front arrives late Sunday, some places will see heavy rain, and most everyone is likely to see some rain. (Rainfall totals will range widely from less than a half inch to as much as two inches.)
Best place to keep up with the action is Weather Underground's WunderMap®.
Sir David Hasselhoff snuggles with a wombat at a zoo in Australia. Yes, I have knighted him, because he's the Knight Rider, and yes I can do that. It's done. He's a knight.Then it goes back to being awesome: highs in the low 80s, sunny, low humidity, light breezes for the duration of the week. Lows will be in the lower 60s and may even reach the upper 50s Monday night into Tuesday. (There's a small chance of storms on Thursday, but that seems sketchy to me. Stay tuned for updates.)
Next weekend (the first weekend in August) looks iffy again, with showers and storms possible, particularly on Saturday.
But then the following week (August 5th to the 9th) is going to be great again: mostly sunny with highs in the upper 70s, lows in the upper 50s, breezy. (We may have to deal with showers toward the end of the week, but let's not worry about that just now.)
And then...
AND THEN...
AND THEN...?
more of the same. (Tricked you there, didn't I? You thought I was going to say "back to the heat and humidity and the sweating and the sopping." But no.)
In fact, I don't see temperatures getting into the 90s again until the very end of August!
So enjoy, my excellent readers. You deserve it.
Your love is like a heat wave!
False.
Unless Martha and the Vandellas are lamenting a suffocating, nauseating boyfriend in whose presence one can develop dementia, cramping, or heat stroke, the 1963 hit song “(Love is Like a) Heat Wave” is grievously inaccurate.
Here in the Northeast, a “heat wave” is typically defined as a period of three or more consecutive days on which the temperature (or, alternatively, the heat index) reaches 90 degrees or above. Get ready for TV news interviews with people who work outside ("How are you dealing with this heat?" "Drinkin' plenty of water, I guess."), tips from the CDC on how to deal with the heat ("Drink plenty of water") and ominous dark orange and red blotches on weather maps, Excessive Heat Warnings, and all the rest.
In all seriousness, though, extreme heat kills more people in this country each year than any other weather event--more than hurricanes, more than tornadoes, more than floods. So be sensible: check on the elderly, don't leave pets in cars, stay hydrated, shit like that.
By any measure, but certainly by the definition cited above, this week will bring a heat wave.
Sunday 7/14 will see a high of 91 with moderate humidity, pushing heat index readings into the upper 90s.
Monday 7/15 is when the heat wave starts cranking. The high will reach 94 with elevated humidity, pushing heat indices into the 101 range. Look for isolated thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening.
Tuesday 7/16 will be hot and humid with hazy skies. Highs will again be 94, with heat indices around 102.
Wednesday 7/17 will be worse, so if at all possible, don’t schedule any extended outdoor activities today. High 96, heat index 104.
Thursday 7/18 will be just as nasty as Wednesday, so again, stay indoors as much as possible. High 97, heat index 104.
Friday 7/19, hot and humid. Afternoon storms possible. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. High 94, heat index 101.
Saturday 7/20, a weak cold front comes through and produces some afternoon storms. Whoop-de-frickin-do. High 90.
Sunday 7/21, mostly sunny and a bit less oppressive, but kind of humid. High 86.
Next week looks stormy, overcast, and humid with highs generally in the mid 80s.
Stay cool!
What the hinky hell is "probability of precipitation"?
My fine friends,
For decades, weather forecasts have included "probability of precipitation," which is expressed as a percentage. Today, for instance, there is a 30% chance of storms. Same percentage tomorrow (Wednesday). On Thursday and Friday, though, it's 60% during the day and 50% at night. More of the same percentage horseshit over the weekend.
(Expect temperatures to reach above 90 degrees Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. We won't really see a break in the humidity until after the Independence Day holiday.)
Further complicating matters in forecasting precipiation are terms like "scattered," "isolated," "widespread," "severe," and "strong" when referring to storm potential.
Fear not: Uncle Monsoon is here to sort it all out for you.
(Wait. That sounds creepy, somehow. Let me try that again.)
Fear not: your special weather friend Monsoon is here to make everything al
(Even creepier.)
Fear not: I will explain.
First, the percentages. A 30% chance of storms doe not mean that it will storm 30% of the time. It also does not mean that 30% of the places in the forecast area will see storms.
Instead, the Probability of Precipitation (PoP) describes the chance of precipitation occurring at any point in the forecast area. It's a mathematical formula:
PoP = C x A (where C = the confidence that measurable precipitation will fall somewhere in the forecast area, and A = the percentage of the area that will receive measurable precipitation, if it gets any at all)
So, for example, with thunderstorms, a forecaster typically knows that they are going to occur (A = 100) but determines that two-fifths of the forecast area will receive precipitation. This is typical with pop-up thunderstorms (those that are spotty and arise on hot, humid days and unstable atmosphere) rather than storms associated with a cold front, which are much more likely to strike a larger area. In the example, then, the PoP is 40%.
Let's say that a forecaster is only half sure that precipitation will occur at all, making A = 50. But the forecaster believes that if it does rain, it will happen in 60% of the coverage area. So that would make PoP = .5 x .6 = 30%.
An more confusing explanation of this percentage is as follows: a 60% PoP means that if the weather conditions theoretically occurred ten times, it would rain six out of those ten times.
The bottom line: when there is any chance of thunderstorms expressed in the forecast and your plans include being outside at any point, keep an eye on the Doppler radar. Light green is light rain; medium rain is medium rain; dark green is chubby rain. Yellow is a deluge. Orange is a downpour. Light red is a storm. Dark red is a heavy storm. Pink is a really, super bad storm. Purple and violet indicate possible tornadic activity, so don't shit around with that. Get in the basement or a windowless room until it blows over.
The best radar, I think, is:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx
A quick note about the terminology you'll hear from meteorologists about the likelihood of rain or storms (isolated, scattered, widespread, etc.). Here's how to sort it all out:
Isolated means less than 15% of the forecast area will see this kind of weather.
Widely scattered means 15-24% will see it.
Scattered means 25-54%.
Numerous or widespread means 55 to 70% chance that the area will see this kind of weather.
Prevalent means 71-72%
Pervasive means 73-75%.
Ubiquitous means 76-85%.
Omnipresent means 86-95%.
Fully rife means 96-100%.
Alright, I may have made up the last five. But the other ones are spot-on.
In future installments here at http://monsoonmartin.squarespace.com, we will tackle the difference between "partly cloudy" and "partly sunny" (and other permutations denoting cloud cover) as well as the difference between "showers" and "rain."
Stay tuned!