Supa Moon! ... and North West
A supa moon from last year. Spoiler alert: the upcoming supa moon will look a lot like this.Supa Moon. When the moon is full and at the closest point in its orbit (around the Earth, for those unfamiliar with astronomy), the moon appears much larger and brighter than normal. It's also called a "perigee moon" because of the closest-to-the-Earth orbit thing. It's going to be 14 percent larger (and not one percent more) and 30 percent brighter.
The Supa Moon is not to be confused with the Pink Moon (a full moon occurring in April, or a great little apocalyptic song by Nick Drake), the Harvest Moon (a full moon occurring in September, or a great Neil Young song), a Beaver Moon (a full moon occurring in November, which also sounds somehow inappropriate), or a Blue Moon (the occurrence of two full moons in a single calendar month, or a Rodgers and Hart standard memorably reimagined by the Marcels as a doo-wop scorcher in 1961).
To see the Supa Moon, go outside on Saturday evening, Sunday morning, or Sunday night, open your eyes, and look up. Or, if you are housebound or selenophobic (afraid of the moon) or agoraphobic (afraid of open spaces), watch it from the safety of your computer.
In other weather-themed news, Kimye have named their daughter "North," which gives her the name "North West." I am assuming it's an homage to the Hitchcock classic "North by Northwest" and a more oblique allusion to Shakespeare's Hamlet: "I am but mad north-northwest; when the wind is southerly, I know a hawk from a handsaw." So hopefully they'll select the middle name "Bynorth" to complete the reference. Anyway, the kid has Kanye West and Kim Kardashian as parents, so a goofy name is the least of her worries.
Anywho, lovely weather we're having, innit? Here's what to expect:
Saturday 6/22, sunny and seasonably warm, much like today. High 86, low 63.
Sunday 6/23, mostly sunny and warmer; slight chance of some pop-up evening thunderstorms. High 89, low 66.
Monday 6/24, partly cloudy, hot and more humid. More (but not all) areas will see thunderstorms in the late afternoon. I will be complaining about the weather on this day. Believe that shit. High 92, low 68.
Tuesday 6/25, hazy, hot, and humid. Afternoon thunderstorms. Blech. High 93, low 69.
Wednesday 6/26, warm and humid! Thunderstorms. Balls. High 90, low 68.
Thursday 6/27, overcast with lower temperatures, but still humid. And you know what they say: it's not the heat, it's the humidity, that will god damned kill you. High 84, low 66.
Friday 6/28, partly cloudy and humid with thunderstorms as a strong cold front moves through. High 83, low 64.
Saturday 6/29, humid early with a lingering shower or thunderstorm, then clearing. High 82, low 60.
Sunday 6/30, relief! Sunny and gorgeous. High 80, low 56.
Beyond, the humidity and rain crank up again. The first week of July looks rainy and unstable at the moment. The another heatwave for the weekend of 7/6 and 7/7. Then more hotness. You know: summer.
Dangerous weather on tap for Thursday 6/13
Friends,
The actual baby praying mantis I found bounded away before I could snap his picture. This is a picture I found online, but that's the spitting image. This is not my finger.I met a baby praying mantis this evening whilst doing the yardwork. He was somewhat more skittish than the adult praying mantises I have known (like Manny, who used to hang out in our yard back in Adamstown). Picture a teeny, translucent praying mantis. Adorable!
But I have digressed even before I have begun. Serious weather is in our immediate future. Here are the deets:
The storm headed for our area is hammering the midwest right now. It will be a strong Nor'easter marked by a deep low and warm weather convection. In plain language, that means we will be at an elevated risk of severe weather.
Expect showers to arrive overnight, becoming steadier by 8 or 9am Thursday. The heaviest rain will be from late morning to about 8pm. Rain will taper overnight into early Friday morning.
Many places will see two inches of rain, and isolated areas will approach three inches. The composition of the storm will bring several complications:
- The aforementioned heavy rain will bring the potential for street and small-stream flooding.
- The potential development of derechos (thanks to Megan King for bringing this term to my attention), which are downbursts of destructive straight-line winds. A damaging swath of hurricane-force winds can accompany a line a severe thunderstorms. The most serious risk for this type of event is downed trees and power lines (due to the ground saturation). Again, this is not inevitable, but conditions will be favorable for derecho development.
- The potential development of tornadoes.
- Severe thunderstorms, some of which could feature hail, most likely in the late afternoon or evening.
- Zombies.
Expect highs in the 70s and high humidity tomorrow.
Friday will be partly cloudy and breezy with a slight risk of thunderstorms in the evening.
The weekend looks really nice: highs around 80, plenty of sunshine.
Another front comes through Monday and Tuesday, bringing with it some thunderstorms.
Showers this week; continued seasonable warmth
Right to the weather:
A few clouds overnight with a low of 42.
Monday looks partly cloudy, then mostly cloudy at night. High 74, low 48.
Tuesday will be cloudy and breezy with a shower or two possible (but predominantly dry). High 73, low 57.
In honor of Cinco de Mayo...Wednesday will cloudy and a bit chillier with showers a bit likelier, but not a washout by any means. High 66, low 54.
On Thursday we'll see some clearing, but a lingering shower or two. Milder with a high of 72 and a low of 53.
Friday will be the nicest (and warmest) day of the week: periods of clouds and sun; high 81, low 58.
Next weekend will be a departure from the last two, which were respendent with clear, blue skies. We'll see some showers, particularly on Saturday--but again, neither day will be a washout. Cloudy and breezy (and quite windy on Sunday). Highs in the lower 70s; lows in the mid 50s.
Next week looks clear and cooler, with highs on Monday and Tuesday in the low to mid 60s. Rainy and warmer by the second half of the week.
April ends, May begins. 27 school days remain.
My readers,
It's been a tough couple of weeks around my workplace, for a variety of reasons. It's hard to know what I can say or what I should say. So let's talk about the weather, shall we?
Chilly night ahead, with lows dipping into the mid 30s in some places and Frost Advisories posted.
The weekend looks gorgeous: clear skies (especially on Saturday), highs in the low 70s, calm winds. Lows in the mid 40s.
Late Sunday night (really, early Monday morning) we'll see some showers develop. Monday will be overcast and cooler (highs struggling to reach 60) with rain and drizzle on and off. Overnight low in the low 50s.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy with some showers and drizzle possible, especially in the morning. Highs in the mid 60s. Overnight low again in the low 50s.
On Wednesday, May begins! Carbon copy of Tuesday, basically. High in the mid 60s.
Overcast Thursday again with rain or drizzle late. High in the mid 60s. Clouds break on Friday but temperatures will again be in the mid 60s.
Next weekend will be much like this weekend, just breezier and cloudier. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Rain coming in late Sunday.
Next week (the week of May 6th) looks cooler (highs in the 50s) and wet (showers likely Monday through Wednesday), but as we get toward the end of the week and into the next weekend, we'll see temperatures warm up considerably.
The end is in sight, my friends. Stay strong.
... all of a sudden: spring.
Warming trend!!
You thought it was tough getting the children to concentrate on their schoolwork before? And you thought the students were clad in some uncomfortably revealing, spilling-out-every-which-way, I-didn't-need-to-see-that outfits before? Just wait until it's 80 degrees and sunny outside.
For extra delight, add the incessant question, "Can we go outside to do English today?" (answer: no; the only acceptable reason to go outdoors is to travel from one indoors to another).
James Garner as Jim Rockford. My own Pissy Face owes a debt to this man's expressive mug.Digression: today is James Garner's 85th birthday! Thanks for your great roles in "The Rockford Files," "Maverick," The Americanization of Emily, My Fellow Americans, and many others. Many of you know that Jim Rockford is my favorite television detective ever--and "The Rockford Files" is a stronger show over all than "Knight Rider." I know, I know: blasphemy. But I gots to be honest.
So here is what to expect:
Monday 4/8 will be warmer with variable cloudiness. Look out for a few isolated showers in the afternoon or evening. High 72, low 53.
Tuesday 4/9 will be overcast to start (with a shower or two early), then clearing and markedly warmer in the afternoon. High 78 - much higher than the average high this time of year (49-50), but not likely to reach the record high for this date (85, set in 1991).
Wednesday 4/10 looks mostly sunny and warm. High 77, low 57.
My celebrated Pissy Face also owes a large debt to David Herman, who portrayed Michael Bolton in Office Space. In this screen capture, he is reacting to the vapid perkiness of a co-worker who is endlessly amused by his name.Thursday 4/11 brings some changes. Expect partly sunny, breezy and warm (high 75) conditions in the morning and early afternoon; then a cold front moves through, bringing some showers and even a thunderstorm in the late afternoon. Rain, heavy at times, overspreads the area Thursday evening into Friday morning. Overnight low 51.
Friday 4/12 will be overcast, breezy and cooler with rain, especially early. High 56, low 39.
Saturday 4/13 looks a lot like Saturday 4/6: sunny and gorgeous with a high of 62 and a low of 40.
Sunday 4/14 brings more of the same: sunny and a bit warmer with a high of 67 and a low of 41.
Next week: sunny and warmer again, with mid-70s by midweek, then more seasonable with highs in the upper 50s by the end of the week.
Next weekend: right now, Saturday 4/20 looks like a carbon copy of 4/13 and 4/6. Sunday the 21st, however, looks chilly and rainy and gross with highs only in the low 50s.
Meteorological Haiku.
On a go-forward basis, all of my forecasts will be issued in the Americanized version of the ancient Japanese poetic form, haiku.
Colding overnight
Then chillier tomorrow
And then mild again
.....
Twenties next few nights
Wet sixties by next Monday
Vicissitudes-ah.
.....
First day of April
Traditional pranking day
Rife tomfoolery
.....
Screw this. Too hard. April Fool's. Here's the forecast:
Temperatures dipping into the upper 20s overnight. Still windy.
Tuesday will be colder and still windy with variable cloudiness. High 44, low 26. (But these values will feel like the mid 30s and low 20s because of the goddamned wind.)
Wednesday will be pretty much the same as Tuesday. High 42, low 24.
Thursday looks milder, as we should expect for this time of year. Less windy, too. Sunny to start, then clouding up later. High 56, low 41.
Rainy Friday. Overcast and pluvious. High 52, low 44.
The weekend looks milder and sunnier. Generally sunny. Highs in the upper 50s, lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Next week will see pleasant and much warmer conditions. Highs in the mid-80s. April Fool's!! Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Next weekend looks rainy and miserable. And windy. That would be the 13th and 14th. Sorry.
Thereafter: 70s, and not as wet as you might expect.
One last haiku:
Cole Hamels' moustache
Evanescent lip-warmer
Sadly, shorn too soon
.....
March goes out like a ... lion.
Umida solstitia atque hiemes orate serenas, agricolae.
That's Latin, and it translates roughly to "Farmers, may your summers be wet and your winters clear."
It was written by Virgil, a Roman epic poet in the first century BCE best-known for his Aeneid.
It's also the name of the upcoming winter storm--the one that's already dumping an early-spring accumulation on the midwest--according to the Weather Channel. (I just can't pass up an opportunity to ridicule TWC.)
There is a lot working against this storm--namely, that it will have to overcome the late-March sun angle and the buildup of milder surface temperatures. And the bulk of the event will occur during the day Monday, so if it does snow, it may have a hard time accumulating.
Working in our favor (for accumulating snow) is the fact that temperatures have been well below normal for the past couple of weeks, and the projected high for Monday is 35.
Some forecast models have us (in Reading and the Lehigh Valley) getting 4 to 8 inches of accumulating snow.
Alright, enough stalling. I've got to make a call. Here it is:
We may see some flurries on Sunday night, but snow won't begin in earnest until 3 or 4am Monday. Snow intensifies toward late morning, mixing with sleet and rain. (I do think that the bulk of this event will be snow; in that way, it will be reminiscent of last Monday's action.) Snow tapers by 8pm Monday.
In Philadelphia, its immediate suburbs, and south Jersey, we'll see a more rain and mixing, so I'm just going to call it a slushy coating to an inch for them.
Back to us: Berks and the Lehigh Valley will see 2 to 3 inches of accumulation, mainly on grassy and unpaved surfaces. At various times throughout the day we could see slippery travel, as we did last Monday--particularly during the morning commute and when the snow is at its most intense (late morning and early to mid afternoon), when even major roads can become coated for a time.
Percentages:
Chance of delay Monday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 30%
Chance of early dismissal Monday, 20%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 50%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 10%
Chance of I can't believe you're still reading this: 100%
Stay tuned for updates; I will send out further notifications when and if my forecast changes...
I've been tracking the storm and wanted to give you an update: my thinking has not changed in terms of the precipitation type, timing, and percentages I laid out in my most recent forecast.
The current radar:
Wintry weather lingers...
Friends,
That was an impressive couple of inches we had the other night. It wasn't much, but it certainly made an impact.
Expect another dusting or two before all is said and done.
Tonight: Breezy with flurries or brief snow showers possible this evening. No sticking, no accumulation, and no travel problems. High 40, low 26.
Friday: Clouds mixed with sunshine; windy. High 42 (will feel like low 30s); low 28 (will feel like upper teens).
Saturday: Breezy with plenty of sunshine, but still chilly. High 44, low 30.
Sunday: Sunny early; clouding up late. Some wet snow is likely late Sunday night into Monday morning. Expect an inch or two of accumulation and maybe even some more travel problems. High 47, low 31.
Chance of delay Monday: 25%
Chance of cancellation Monday: 10%
David Hasselhoff in Germany this week to join the protest against the removal of the last remants of the Berlin Wall. In 1989, Der Coiffure single-Hoffedly brought down that reviled communist symbol by performing "Looking for Freedom" in front of it.Monday: Overcast with rain and drizzle in the afternoon. High 48, low 34.
Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday: Breezy and a bit milder with brilliant sunshine. Highs near 50, lows in the mid 30s.
Friday3/29: Cloudy and rainy. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Next weekend: Rainy and cool. Highs in the low 40s.
The first week of April looks to be a transitional week. It begins with highs in the mid 40s (and lows in the low 30s), and ends with highs in the upper 60s (and lows in the mid 40s). Wet, too. April showers and all that.