This son of a bitching storm.
My snow-weary readers,
I wish I could tell you that this storm has changed its track dramatically and now it will be just a flurry or a wisp of drizzle. I wish I could tell you that we won't have 30mph winds and heavy, wet snow that will bring down trees and power lines. I wish I could tell you that we won't get 12-16 inches of wind-driven, crippling snow. And I really wish I could tell you that there's not another storm looming for Monday into Tuesday that promises snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
I wish.
David Hasselhoff takes his pants off.The first flakes will start falling by midnight Wednesday, but it won't really get cranked up until 2 or 3am. Then it snows heavily for the next 14 hours. And the wind speed increases during that time. Tapering begins by about 7pm Thursday, then ends by 1 or 2am late Thursday night/Friday morning. There could be a bit of mixing (especially points south and east of Berks), but this is primarily a wet snow event. Windy and nasty.
Snow totals:
Berks, Lancaster, Allentown, Poconos, extreme North Jersey, 12-16 inches, all snow.
Philadelphia's suburbs, 10-14 inches, maybe a little bit of mixing.
Philadelphia, central Jersey, NYC, 8-12 inches, some mixing in the afternoon.
South Jersey and Delaware, 4-8 inches generally, with plenty of mixing.
Watch for beach erosion and high winds (and waves and all that) along the NJ and Delaware coasts.
Schools:
Chance of delay Thursday, 20%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 99.6%
Chance of delay Friday, 92%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 70%
Temperatures remain steady in the upper 20s/low 30s throughout the storm.
Trivia: The Weather Channel has named this Winter Storm Pax, which is Latin for peace, which no it's not peaceful. It's a vicious, crippling winter storm and Pax is a dumb name for any winter storm. Is my sputtering rage at The Weather Channel's alarmist buffoonery coming through?
Depressed again. Here's a video of an orangutan and a dog that are BFFs.
Stay tuned for updates.
Thursday update: major winter storm
Regarding Thursday's storm: there's still plenty of uncertainty in terms of track, precipitation type, and timing. But here's what I see...
Snow begins overnight Wednesday into Thursday (around 10pm Wednesday). Snow continues Thursday, varying in intensity. Thursday morning, Thursday afternoon, Thursday evening, Thursday night. Snow, snow, snow, snow. Snow ends by 3 or 4am Friday.
Amount - right now, it looks like we're in the bull's eye for 12-16 inches of snow. That could be less if precipitation type mixes or track changes. But right now I'm thinking:
Chance of delay Thursday, 25%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 85%
Chance of delay Friday, 80%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 65%
Leading to that storm, we'll see some frigid-assed weather. Low tonight down to 10. Tuesday's high, 25; low all the way down to 4. Wednesday's high, 25 again; low, 12.
This is a really depressing forecast, so here's this:
Stay tuned for updates!
Quick one about Sunday and next week.
On Sunday we'll have a bit of snow. Not a lot. An inch or two at most.
Multiple hues of dark denim, multiple button malfunction, black leather gleaming, sprig of chest-fur peeks. His name is David Michael Hasselhoff, and you have seen more pictures of him than you ever imagined you would in your entire lifetime.Begins as flurries by noon. Then some steadier periods of light snow in the afternoon. 3pm-7pm is the period during which some slippery-roadway-creating snow will most likely fall. Flurries end by about 11pm. Most places will see only about an inch. Someone, somewhere might get as much as 2.2 inches. That's it, though.
Monday will be partly sunny and cold. A delay is not likely, but not out of the realm of possibility. High 28. Then it gets bitterly cold again overnight into Tuesday, falling to 8 (with breezy conditions making it feel like 0).
It's been some winter when single digits make us say, "Big frickage. Wake me up when it gets below zero. In fact, you know what? Don't wake me up 'til late March. I will hibernate, like an actual bear, for the next six weeks."
Yes, frickage. I just made it up.
Chance of delay Monday, 30%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 11%
Tuesday is cold too. Clouds breaking. High of 25. Single digits again at night. Yawn.
Partly cloudy and not quite as cold on Wednesday. High of 33!
Snow still looks likely for the Wednesday night-to-Thursday evening period. On Monday, I will have a better idea on that storm, and I will tell you fine people all about it.
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 23%
Chance of delay Thursday, 70%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 55%
And then milder for the middle of the month and beyond.
Stay tuned for updates!
Weekend fizzles; next week action?
As of this morning, there were still a couple hundred thousand people with no power from Wednesday's ice storm, so I hope everyone is safe and warm...
Keep on the lookout for black ice tonight as the temperature gets down to about 12.
On to the much-discussed weekend. To be concise, we are lacking the ingredients we would need for a major snowfall. Saturday will be cold (high of 31) and mostly cloudy with a few snow showers likely in the late afternoon/evening range. Expect a mere coating from this action, but no appreciable accumulation. (This will be a "nuisance event," though, meaning that you should check the Doppler before you go out to see if you're likely to encounter snow. Remember: it doesn't take much snow at all to make the roads slippery, and even less to make people forget how to drive.)
On Sunday morning, expect a bit more snow. We could have light accumulations in some areas (an inch or two at most), but the majority of people will just have snow showers, tapering to flurries in the afternoon.
Der Graupel-Hassel-Hund (literally, sky fruit hirsute dog) poses in 1989 with his single "Looking for Freedom." Just take a moment to take a tall drink of Hoff: the chest fur, the ripped jeans, the superfluous leather. How is he not a bigger star? you wonder. He is the biggest star, I correct you.Monday looks sunny, windy, and cold (high 28); Tuesday will be even colder with a high of only 24. Overnight lows for both days will be in the lower teens.
The Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning time frame is looking provocative for a winter storm. Right now I'd say this is looking likely, and it's setting up for an early dismissal Wednesday and a day off Thursday.
But! I think this coming week will bring our LAST SNOW DAY OF THE SCHOOL YEAR!! I think.
After that, things warm up a bit: highs in the 40s on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. And the 50s by the end of the following week (2/19, 2/20, 2/21)!
Stay tuned for updates...
Wednesday afternoon update
Alright. Some northern areas (Sussex County, NJ; Carbon and Monroe Counties in PA) got 8-10 inches of snowfall out of this. For most of the rest of us, we got relatively little snowfall (and inch or two at most), but significant icing: one-quarter to one-third of an inch of ice accretion reported in much of southeastern Pennsylvania. Also heard reports of lightning(!) and heavy snow banding in upstate NJ and NY. Demonic bird-lizards have been spotted running through the streets of Tredyffrin Township. (Alright, I made that last one up. I just wanted an excuse to reference Tredyffrin. I love that name.)
Lots of trees/lines down. Power outages in SE PA are over 600,000 now. (Chester County got especially badly hit: more than 80 percent of customers there are without power.) As of 1:30, precipitation was pretty much over for most of us.
This morning, in West Chester.Winds are pretty calm now, but will pick up somewhat (10-15mph out of the northwest) this evening and overnight. So I'm worried about the trees. They have all this wet snow on them, and the branches/limbs have a coating of ice, so when a stiff breeze comes by, they're just going to be like, eff it. Falling on power lines, across roads, that sort of thing.
As a result, I see the power outage numbers going down this afternoon, but rising again overnight.
According to reports I have received, the roads are generally OK. Main roads are just wet; secondary roads are slushy. Some slick spots. I am receiving reports of some minor flooding on roadways (since the drains are dammed with ice), so watch out for that. Some refreezing overnight.
Temperatures will hold steady in the mid 30s today, but after sunset (about 5:30), expect temperatures to fall quickly. 25 by midnight; upper teens around Thursday morning's school commute. Temperatures won't rise above the mid 20s during the day Thursday; same thing Friday.
Chance of delay Thursday, 75%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 40%
Chance of delay Friday, 35%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 15%
Saturday looks cloudy and cold but, I think, not snowy. Storm misses us to the south.
During the first half of Sunday we could get a few inches of snow, but it clears by evening. Maybe a delay Monday, but that's it.
And beyond that?
*sighhhhh*
We could get some more wintry precipitation on Wednesday (snowstorm) and Thursday (ice storm).
And then by next weekend (2/15) we see milder temperatures.
Stay tuned!
Are we going to have off tomorrow?
Snow day crew,
If I had a nickel for every time I've heard that already today, I'd have twenty-five cents. If I had a nickel for every time I'm going to hear that today, I'd have forty-five million dollars.
The math is solid. Don't hassle me.
For tonight's storm, this is my latest thinking:
Snow begins by 9 or 10pm tonight, falling lightly at first, then heavier after midnight. Snow will mix with sleet toward morning (say, 6am) but I still think this is going to be mostly a snow event. Even if the precipitation changes to rain (which it may, briefly), the rain will freeze on surfaces and make already-treacherous secondary roads impassable. If you try to walk, you will have an ass-meeting with the sidewalk.
Look at the lines. Isn't it pretty? Wind.Snowfall totals are being overblown by some media outlets, I think. Other outlets say 4-8" for Lancaster and the western suburbs of Philly, 6-10" for Berks, Allentown, Pottsville, some of North Jersey, and NYC, and 8-12" in northeastern Pennsylvania (Scranton and the Poconos and whatnot) as well as extreme North Jersey.
I think these amounts are a bit high. What I'd say is:
2-4 inches in Philly, South Jersey, Chester County, Lancaster County, with .4 inch ice accumulation
4-6 inches in Berks, Allentown, NYC, North Jersey, with .2 inch ice accumulation
6-10 inches in northeastern Pennsylvania (with isolated areas getting a foot or more); no appreciable ice accumulation
But really, at this point, do snow totals mean a whole lot? I mean, most of us just got 8-10 inches of snow. Does it really matter if there are 4 inches or 8 inches on top of that? Unless you are insane (I'm looking at you, Dreads), you are probably very ready for winter to be over.
Back to business. Snow and/or a foul mixture falls throughout Wednesday morning, ending by about 1pm. However, unlike in a typical mixed-precipitation event, temperatures will only rise a degree or two above freezing before plummeting back into the lower 20s (and breezy) overnight.
Impacts:
Areas in the first region listed above (Philly, Chester County, etc.) will see widespread icing and power outages. Less so in the second region (Berks, Allentown, etc.), but the threat is still there.
School closing:
Chance of delay Wednesday, 85%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 70%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 0.52%
Chance of delay Thursday, 60%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 20%
Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 20s, but it will be mostly sunny, so there's that.
The next system is one that continues to bear watching. It appears that it will affect our area in the late-Saturday-night-to-Monday-afternoon time frame. And it looks like it could be a big storm.
Stay tuned for updates!
Chubby snow, and then a mess Tuesday into Wednesday.
It was still snow here as of 2pm, but will taper and end by mid-afternoon. Snow totals I predicted were a little low. Be sure to email me your measurements (your snow measurements - keep it clean) so I can pass them along to the people.
Temperatures will drop into the 20s this evening, teens overnight. During tomorrow morning's commute, expect temperatures to be around 20. There will be some issues with freezing, and with roads that still haven't been cleared, but given that the snow will end by mid-afternoon, I don't see a cancellation tomorrow. It's a classic two-hour delay scenario.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 70%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 40%
Then the Tuesday night to Wednesday storm. Here's what I see:
Precipitation begins as snow Tuesday evening around 8 or 9pm. Snow accumulates 2-4 inches, then mixes with (and changes to) sleet and freezing rain by 9am Wednesday. Models are trending colder for this event, so it appears it will be mostly snow. That is good thing, actually, as a prolonged period of icing could lead to widespread power outages and all sorts of nastiness. Ends as rain early Wednesday afternoon.
His name is David Hasselhoff, and he can sing.Rain/snow lines, temperatures in the upper atmosphere, and surface temperatures will be key here. The forecast above is what I believe will happen. (I also predicted a grinding defensive battle in the Super Bowl, with the Broncos winning 18-14.)
Chance of delay Wednesday, 80%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 60%
Sunny, breezy, and colder on Thursday. High of 30, overnight low down to 8.
Chance of delay Thursday, 35%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 10%
Sunny and cold again on Friday. High of 30.
Cloudy and cold on Saturday, but snow-free. High of 31.
Sunday into Monday looks like a significant storm. Later this week, that storm will come into better focus.
Stay!
Shit and two is eight.
My nana was fond of saying that--sometimes in a moment of idle ennui, sometimes when we were playing 500 Rummy and she got an inauspicious deal (or, "I've got a hand like a foot"), sometimes when something annoyed her. She was a rough-around-the-edges, gleefully profane little lady. I miss her.
Anyway, my nana's "shit and two is eight" is apropos here and now, given that we're getting snow tomorrow that will probably close school.
Shit and two is eight.
Precipitation will start as a little snow/sleet mix by 2 or 3am early Monday, then become all snow by 5 or 6am. Steadiest snow--and this will be a heavy, wet snow with large, juicy flakes--will fall from 8 or 9am to about 1pm. Snow tapers and ends by about 3 or 4pm. (Rain/snow line and set-up of intense banding can push totals higher in some places and greatly reduce totals for areas close by.)
Snowfall amounts:
Philly, burbs, Trenton, Lancaster County, Chester County: 5-7 inches
Reading and Berks, Allentown, South Jersey: 3-5 inches
Extreme South Jersey and Southern Delaware: 1-3 inches
Cancellation potentials (for Reading/Berks only):
Delay Monday, 15%
Cancellation Monday, 70%
Early dismissal Monday, 35%
Hoff, People's Choice Awards presenter, 1984.High will only about about 36, and that will happen early in the morning. Temperatures will fall, then hold steady just below freezing for the bulk of the day.
The roads will freeze overnight into Tuesday, so delays would be reasonable. High in the mid 30s.
Delay Tuesday, 40%
Cancellation Tuesday, 15%
The second system of the week will move through beginning about 8pm Tuesday night and continuing to early Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will begin as snow and sleet overnight, but will mix with (and change to) rain by about 7 or 8am Wednesday. So a delay is feasible, but a cancellation is less likely.
Delay Wednesday, 60%
Cancellation Wednesday, 40%
Sunny Thursday but windy and colder: high of only 31. Similar action on Friday. Saturday 2/8 looks overcast and cold (high 28), but snow-free. Sunday still looks snowy, though.
Stay tuned for ... *sighhhhh*