Nor'easter - February 22, 2026
Snow.
After a couple of days trying to sort out Sunday's storm (track, precipitation type, etc.) - and wading through the many (and often wildly different from one another) forecast model runs, which now include AI forecasting of varying types and proclivities - I have a better idea of what we might see.
W. H. Auden, born 2/21/1907So here is something approximating an informed stab a respectable amateur meteorological take.
First, the snow is going to be heavy and wet, periodically mixed with rain, as noted below.
Baltimore - Washington: precip begins early Sunday morning, say sometime between 5 and 7. Rain could mix in a bit in the afternoon, driving down accumulations. I think we'll see mostly snow due to lower temperatures aloft, along with periods of heavy snow that will cause prodigious accumulation. Winds will begin moderate, but by late afternoon and evening (and even into Monday morning), we'll see them kick up to 15-20mph sustained with gusts up to 30-35mph. Nothing catastrophic, but there could be isolated instances of tree damage and power outages. And of course, some areas (mostly on the NJ-DE-MD coasts) will see periods of blizzard-like conditions.
Nina Simone, born 2/21/1933
Accumulations - 5-8 inches generally in the DMV, but that number could be reduced if a significant portion of the precipitation is rain. Isolated areas could see as much as a foot!
School Monday? - No.
When will it end? - continues overnight from Sunday to Monday, tapering by noon and ending by mid-afternoon.
Barbara Jordan, born 2/21/1936Norristown - Bucks - Philly: similar observations about the timing (Sunday early morning through Monday late morning) and winds. Should be spared from blizzard-like conditions.
Accumulations - 7-10 inches with isolated areas approaching 14-16 inches.
School Monday? - No. Probably not Tuesday either.
When will it end? - tapers and then comes to an end around noon Monday.
Alan Rickman, born 2/21/1946Jersey Shore, Delaware beaches, Maryland's Eastern Shore: increased likelihood of blizzard-like conditions (higher winds than described in the forecast areas above) which could bring greater indicidence of power outages.
Accumulations - could be in the 9-12 range with several inches more possible in isolated areas. The snow forecast numbers for this region could fall dramatically if there is more rain (or even mostly rain).
Tituss Burgess, born 2/21/1979
School Monday? - No. Could be more days off if there are widespread power outages and/or flooding.
When will it end? - starts as a wintry mix by mid-morning on Sunday, winding up a bit later than the other regions (tapering and ending by around dinnertime on Monday).
Jennifer Love Hewitt, born 2/21/1979Reading - Berks - Lancaster: similar to Norristown - Bucks - Philly. An increased risk of blizzard (or blizzard-like) conditions, which can result in more quickly deteriorating road conditions, blowing and drifting snow.
Accumulations - 6-12 inches, more in isolated areas.
School Monday? - No, although it seems to be increasingly popular for schools to deploy and two-hour delay even when the road/lot conditions remain treacherous.
When will it end? - noon Monday (or shortly thereafter)
Jordan Peele, born 2/21/1979
And there you have it. A good, old-fashioned bomb cyclone to round out a miserably frigid and snowy winter.
Enjoy!
💓 Monsoon
I will tell you now about the outside conditions expected for approximately the ensuing ten days
aka the Forecast.
New format: I am going to offer one single forecast for the entire greater Philadelphia region. If the forecast for Berks (or Lancaster, or Princeton, or Cape May), I will mention it. Otherwise, you can assume that the greater Philadelphia forecast applies to you as well.
Monday 2/25: windy as balls. Really gusty ones. High in the mid to upper 30s, but it'll feel like the 20s. (Gusts over 50mph at times, which whoa.) Low in the low to mid 20s. Sunny, though!
Happy birthday on 2/25 to Herbert Manfred ("Zeppo Marx"), who is dead.
Tuesday 2/26: sunny and still breezy, but not as bad as Monday. High in the mid to upper 30s, low in the upper teens to low 20s. Like, a serious wintry day.
Happy birthday on 2/26 to Tony Randall, who is dead.
Wednesday 2/27: becoming cloudier. Then overcast. A slight chance of afternoon snow showers, so much more likely is a dry, cloudy day. Temperatures steady in the low to mid 30s.
Happy birthday on 2/27 to John Steinbeck, who is dead.
Thursday 2/28: since this is not a leap year, this will, in fact, be the last day of February. Expect clouds mixed with sun, and highs in the low 40s. A bit of snow developing overnight Thursday into Friday. Literally, it will span two months.
Happy birthday on 2/28 to Frank Gehry, who was born on this day in 1929, and who is ... well, I'll be damned, he's alive and well. In fact, he is pictured above reacting to my assumption that he was dead.
Friday 3/1: overcast with highs in the upper 30s to near 40. Rain and drizzle, with wet snow and freezing rain more likely in Berks and areas north and west.
Happy birthday on 3/1 to Roger Daltrey, who is still one of the most kick-ass rock singers ever and who is definitively not dead.
Saturday 3/2: overcast with rain and drizzle; temperatures could get into the upper 50s and even 60s. We could even see a thunderstorm! Shit ya not. (Stays a bit chiller up in Lehigh Valley and Berks: highs in the upper 40s, but still rain and drizzle.) Then becoming much colder and very windy at night.
Happy birthday on 3/2 to Laraine Newman, because I haven't had a woman on here yet, and what the shit is that about. Oh, and she is not dead.
Sunday 3/3: sunny and windy with highs only getting up to the mid 30s. (That's barely above freezing, which is 32°F.
Happy birthday on 3/3 to Ruby Dandridge, who is dead.
Monday 3/4: snow, mark it down. Or maybe not. But it looks pretty likely.
Happy birthday on 3/4 to Patsy Kensit, who is not dead. I admit it: I did not think this through, the whole birthday shout-out thing. I mean, I've done eight now, and I have two more to go. Nothing to do now but just see it through.
Tuesday 3/5: morning snow, then clearing. I'm serious! For reals.
Happy birthday on 3/5 to Marsha Warfield, who is not dead. And yes, I am going to have five women in a row to balance out the five men in a row with whom I started this ill-conceived enterprise.
Wednesday 3/6: clearing, but still cold. Mid-30s at best. (Maybe 40 in Montco, Chesco, Delco, and ... Philco?) Milder thereafter - 40s, 50s, and beyond.
Happy birthday on 3/6 to Pauline Matthews ("Kiki Dee"), who is not dead.
Stay tuned for updates...
The second half of February = eine Scheiße zeigen
That's German for "shit show," but I didn't want to have a profanity in the title of my post. (For the children.)
Here's why I called the end of February a bad word:
Rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, iceification, slush, slop.
Let me break it down to ... walnut brown.
It rhymes. And it's not suspiciously ethnocentric and possibly racist, unlike "I'll take you down to Chinatown."
BUT I DIGRESS.
So let's talk about the first thing, which is Sunday to Monday. And this time, I'll put the forecast for Berks, followed by the forecast for Norristown in brackets. Like this:
On Monday, the skies will teem with falling toads. High 47, low 29. [Monday: toads, toads, and more toads. 50/31.]
Note: the above is just an example; we will not be beset with any biblically cataclysmic precipitation. As far as I know.
Happy birthday today to my favorite actor working today, Mahershala Ali. He was in the fantastic film Green Book, he was in Hidden Figures, and he's in the new season of True Detective. And little-known fact: his entire first name is actually Mahershalalhashbaz. That's a MAN'S name right there.
Sunday 2/17: Scattered snow showers appear by 6pm. Continue on and off throughout the night. Ends by 6-7am Monday. Maybe a scattered snow or rain shower through 11am Monday. Accumulation a coating to an inch. High Sunday 37, low 30. [Scattered snow showers--possibly mixed with sleet--by 7pm. On and off overnight. Ends by 3-4am, with a few lingering snow showers possible through 10am. Accumulation a coating only.]
Monday 2/18 will turn out partly cloudy and breezy. High 41, low 22. [Ditto. High 42, low 25.]
Tuesday 2/19: sunny for most of the day. Increasing clouds by the evening. No snow til after midnight. High 36, low 25. [Ditto. 38/24.]
Snow starts (scattered showers) after midnight; some steadier snow throughout Wednesday morning. Steadiest snow will fall between noon and 8pm. Some mixing (and perhaps the worst travel issues) from 8pm-midnight. High Wednesday 33, low 27. Thursday will see a lingering chance for scattered rain or snow showers (or some freezing rain, which will SUCK). High 41, low 29. [Ditto. Steadiest snow 1pm-8pm. Mixing 4-8pm. Wednesday's high 34, low 29. Thursday, ditto. High 46, low 33.]
Guys, this looks like a sloppy mess. Cold air will dam (stay put in our area) and there will be plenty of moisture to fuel this storm. And there's a thing called overrunning, which basically means that even though surface temperatures will be around freezing, other parts of the atmosphere will be warmer, adding up to a mixed bag of frozen shitfulness.
Accumulation: 5-7 inches; if there is significant mixing, the snow totals will be down, but the road hazards will actually increase. [For Norristown: 3-5 inches; same thing about the mixing and the roads. *turd emoji*]
School scheduling snafus: isolated delays on Monday; widespread closures on Wednesday; widespread delays on Thursday.
And what's that you say? You want more? Alright.
The last four days of February have the potential to be pretty dicey. Prett-ay, prett-ay, prett-ay dicey. Lots of moisture, cold air stays in place. So gross.
P.S. Oh! Check out this link from the PSU Department of Meteorology website. Not terribly useful meteorologically, or germane to this discussion, but it's so badass! (Wait for the animation to load. I promise it's worth it.)
Two Mid-February Jawns.
Right to it, because I'm mad late to this party.
Wait, I've got something to say first. You know how when it snows, it's harder to see? And roads get slippery? Yes? THEN WHY IN THE NAME OF HERMES' CADUCEUS DO PEOPLE STILL DRIVE SO G.D. FAST? For shit's sake, people: slow down.
This first bit is the forecast for Reading/Berks:
Snow Sunday evening, starting about 9pm. Pretty light snow overnight, wrapping up by about 6 or 7am Monday. Accumulation will be 1.65 inches. Roads will be dicey, so widespread two-hour delays are likely (and there may even be isolated closings where the snow lingers).
We could see some snow showers (mixed with sleet at times) between 11am and 7pm on Monday. Expect little or no accumulation during this period, but watch for temporarily reduced visibility and road iceification. (Yes, I just made up that word. Come at me.)
Then the more significant and disruptive storm arrives. Starts snowing in earnest around 9pm Monday night.
By Tuesday morning about 7am, there will be 3.1 inches of snow on the ground, and it will still be snowing. By about noon, expect to see the snow mix with (and briefly change over to) sleet; by mid-afternoon, it will change to all rain. But then in the evening there will likely be some sleet mixing in, and sometime late Tuesday night, it will change back to snow! And that snow doesn't end until maybe 6-7am Wednesday.
Total accumulation from this whole storm (Monday night to Wednesday morning) will be 6.3 inches, but it's the snow-packed roads, untreated surfaces, and the widespread iceification that are going to be the real disruptors here.
(The salt and brine and whatnot that were applied to various surfaces during our last spate of storms - that all washed away in the rain. So unless that solution was reapplied, don't expect to achieve any traction on said surfaces.)
Expect widespread school closings on Tuesday, and widespread two-hour delays on Wednesday.
So again: school delays likely on Monday and Wednesday; closures likely on Tuesday.
Now let's talk about the Norristown/Montco area:
Snow starts around 10-11pm Sunday night. Light snow wrapping up by about 7-8am Monday. Accumulation 1.56 inches. Dicey roads, widespread school delays (and there may even be isolated closings where the snow lingers).
Snow showers (with sleet mixed in at times) between 12 noon and 8pm on Monday. Watch out for the iceification (I made up that word in the Reading/Berks forecast, then decided to use it here again. Object to the coinage? I WILL FIGHT YOU.).
Look for the real storm to arrive (and snow to begin in earnest) by 9-10pm on Monday. By 7am Tuesday morning, there will be 2.45 inches of snow on the ground - and it will still be snowing. By noon, snow will mix with (then change over to) sleet. All rain by late afternoon and into the evening, then mixed with sleet, and then back to snow! Daaaaamn.
Snow ends by 7-8am Wednesday morning.
Total accumulation (Monday night to Wednesday morning) will be precisely 5.5 inches, but expect more disruption from the snow-packed roads, untreated surfaces, and widespread iceification.
(The salt and brine and whatnot that were applied to various surfaces during our last spate of storms - that all washed away in the rain. So unless that solution was reapplied, don't expect to achieve any traction on said surfaces.)
Expect widespread school closings on Tuesday; some two-hour delays on Wednesday.
So again: school delay likely on Monday, widespread closures on Tuesday, and some delays on Wednesday.
Weather ruminations and forecast update
Here's the thing about the weather, and I find it both maddening and exhilarating: it does what it wants.
There are 4-5 major forecast models (and myriad lesser ones) that rely on data and algorithms and trends to develop a forecast. It should be noted that these models rarely agree, which should be a clear signal that the weather almost seems to be actively resisting being accurately predicted. Like, you think you can forecast me? Well, watch this.
In more specific terms, even with all of our technological advances and measurement tools and whatnot, forecasting certain kinds of weather still feels like--at best--a notch or two above a coin flip.
Meteorologists have gotten pretty good at predicting temperatures, pretty good at reading the isobars and isotherms, shit like that. But when it comes to any kind of precipitation, forecasting is downright hapless. And with "hyperlocal" forecasting, which purports to be able to pinpoint the exact conditions you will encounter when you step outside the door, the accuracy seems to have gotten even less reliable.
How many times have you checked the weather on your phone and it says "it's raining, you're gonna get soaked, abandon hope," but you go outside and it's not doing shit? Birds singing, blue skies, dry pavement? Idyllic as you please.
Or it says that snow will begin in 17 minutes, but it actually began about an hour ago and already stopped, and never starts up again?
As it relates to the weekend storm, various weather outlets and meteorologists (and the forecast models that, to a large extent, drive them) will tell you exactly when it's supposed to start precipitating; when it's snow, or freezing rain, or plain rain, or sleet; when the roads will be slippery. But there's so much happening in the atmosphere during a storm that this certainty is laughable. 95% of those predictions will be wrong, and the other 5% got close because a broken clock is still right twice a day, which come to think of it, is one of those rare sayings that works with us old-heads (clocks with hands) and young-uns (digital jawns) alike.
One neighborhood will get 10 inches of snow while the next one over gets 4 inches. Hamburg gets mostly rain, but Shillington gets ice and snow. Shouldn't it be the other way around?
Last thing on this: there are so many layers to the atmosphere (each one is like its own ecosystem), and so many currents and streams in that atmosphere that move warm air and cold air and tepid air hither and thither, that it's a wonder any storm forecast is ever accurate. Because really, when it comes down to it, despite the GFS, the NAM, the Euro, Siri, Alexa, Google, and your mom--we have little understanding of why things happen.
So what are you saying, Monsoon? You're not going to even try to navigate us through this meteorological minefield? You're just throwing up your hands?
Alright, so here's the forecast and I'm going to do six zones, because that's the type of magnanimous and inclusive motherfucker I am:
Philadelphia and surrounding counties: snow starts around 1pm Saturday, accumulating an inch or two. By 6 or 7pm, snow mixing with, then changing over to, rain, which continues overnight. Sleet mixes in around 7-9am, then temperatures begin their plunge, so back to snow by 10-11am. Snow tapers by mid-afternoon and is finished by 4pm. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon, Sunday morning, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).
Lehigh Valley and Berks: snow starts about 12-1pm Saturday, accumulating 2-3 inches. Snow mixes with sleet between 10pm and midnight; plain rain overnight (about 12-5), then freezing rain, sleet, and snow from 5-8, then snow from 8am-2pm Sunday. Total accumulations: 4-6 inches of snow and sleet. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon, Sunday morning, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).
Lancaster, York, and Cumberland: Snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain straight away (1pm-midnight). Plain rain overnight. Maybe a bit of snow at the end (11am-1pm Sunday). Very little if any accumulation. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon and evening, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).
North Jersey and NYC: Snow arrives 3-4pm Saturday. Snow mixes with sleet and freezing rain around midnight, then changes over to sleet and freezing rain. Expect 2-4 inches of snow and ice from this storm, as well as several days of travel paralysis. Oh! And power outages. A little snow mixed in on the "back end" (Sunday afternoon), but nothing that will add to storm totals appreciably. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon through Tuesday morning (low temps, very strong winds, ice, travel woes, stay inside).
South Jersey: this looks like an all-rain event for you lucky sons of bitches down the shore. Maybe a little snow mixed in on the "back end" (Sunday afternoon), but don't you dare complain about that. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative single digits by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: maybe a little slipperiness on Sunday afternoon? Then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, very strong winds, ice).
Bucks County and central Jersey / Princeton: rain and snow start by around noon Saturday. Becomes all snow after 5 or 6pm. Then mixes with sleet 9-10pm, then after midnight it's all rain. Changing to sleet and freezing rain by 5 or 6am, then maybe a bit of snow on Sunday afternoon. Total accumulation, 2-4 inches of sleet and snow. Pretty gross, sounds like. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday evening and overnight, Sunday morning, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).
Stay tuned for updates!
Two systems to discuss.
The first one, affecting the region overnight Thursday into Friday, is relatively weak and fast-moving, so impacts should be minor to moderate.
The second one, heading at us from Saturday afternoon to Sunday evening, has the potential to be significantly disruptive and messy. And it will usher in the coldest air of the season. By far.
But I'm getting ahead of myself.
Thursday will be partly cloudy with a high of 31. As clouds roll in, we could see an isolated snow shower or two as early as 5 or 6pm, but generally the snow will not begin in earnest until 8-9pm (Berks) and 9-10pm (Montgomery). Snow continues intermittently (and of varying intensity) until about 5-6am (Berks) and 6-7am (Montgomery). Storm totals: 1-2.75 inches (Berks) and .33-1.41 inches (Montgomery). Slippery conditions can develop quickly--even with just a coating of powdery snow--so be careful.
Classic two-hour delay scenario setting up for schools on Friday, so hey, there's that.
Alright, so the weekend.
There are a lot of "moving parts" to this system. It's not just a huge area of moisture that we can follow into the region, and there's a lot of instability throughout the atmosphere--and uncertainty regarding the precise track--that could have drastic ramifications in terms of amounts, precipitation types, and whatnot.
This is not to say that I cannot or will not give you a forecast. To refuse to do that would be wussy. And I may be a wuss when it comes to (and this is not an exhaustive list) sullying my hands or approaching a spider, I am most certainly not a wuss when it comes to forecasting.
Go big or go home, I always say. (Again, in almost every other scenario, I would absolutely go home. But not this one.)
Snow begins Saturday 12-1pm over the entire area. Expect some heavy snowfall rates Saturday afternoon and evening. There will be mixing (late evening and overnight) that may result in significant icing. Expect a period of freezing rain (rain that freezes onto the surface) on Sunday morning before changing back over to snow on the "back end" - Sunday between 12 and 6pm.
Right now, I'd say we should expect total snow accumulations of 8-10 inches in the Lehigh Valley and northern Berks, with higher amounts in Schuylkill County and the Poconos. Dunder Mifflin could see as much as 18-22 inches.
Southern Berks, Lancaster County, Montgomery County, whatnot: 6-8 inches with some ice thrown in for shits and giggles.
Philadelphia could see very minimal snow accumulations from this system: 2-4 inches at most. South Jersey and Delaware will likely see all or mostly rain.
Other selected predictions:
Princeton, 4-6 inches
Nutley, 8-12 inches
And then it gets so frickin' cold, you won't even believe it. Remember that part in The Day After Tomorrow when it gets so cold that everything goes limp and then freezes and then crumbles apart? Well, not that bad. But still.
Note the savvy product placement from Wendy's.
Temperatures Sunday evening and overnight will plunge into the single digits (5 in Berks; 8 in Montgomery) and it will get very windy Sunday evening (15-20mph with gusts over 30), so wind chills will plunge to the negative teens by Monday morning. If school were in session on Monday, there would be at least a two-hour delay. But since it is an in-service day, teachers and staff will be expected to report at normal time. *shrugging person emoji that I can't figure out how to insert into this forecast*
High on Monday reaches 17 (Berks), 19 (Montgomery); still pretty windy. High on Tuesday reaches 27 (Berks), 29 (Montgomery); not nearly as windy.
Rest of the week: highs in the 30s.
Following weekend: cold as balls again. Highs in the low 20s; lows in the single digits.
Snow?
Anywho. The scuttlebutt is that there's some snow in the forecast this weekend.
I wondered where the term "scuttlebutt" came from, and thought it had to do with coal or fireplaces (for there is mention of a "coal scuttle" in Dickens' A Christmas Carol), but I was not quite correct.
The term, nautical in origin, actually refers to a cask or barrel (a butt) of drinking water kept on the deck of a ship; this vessel had a hole (or scuttle) in its lid so that sailors could access the water. Since the sailors often exchanged gossip whilst partaking in this fresh water, the term for a rumor became scuttlebutt.
So the scuttlebutt was literally the water cooler of the 19th century.
Sailors round the scuttlebutt, portrayed as far more staid and polite than they actually likely were.And for those who are now wondering what in Dickensian hell a "coal scuttle" is, it's a bucket or pail (a scuttle) which contains a modest supply of coal for feeding a coal-fired stove or heater.
This what happens when I decide to write a forecast: I cannot simply activate the prognosticational portion of my brain without activating all of it.
The weather.
It now looks pretty certain that the snow will stay to our south, giving us just a dusting.
The deets.
Light snow moves in about 8 or 9pm Saturday. Little or no accumulation, but remember that even a dusting can cause travel woes on untreated roadways. Maybe a snow shower or two overnight and early Sunday morning, ending by 5am and accumulating a coating to seven-eighths of an inch. Lingering light snow shower through the rest of Sunday morning, but no big.
Cold. (I mean, January. Expect that shit.) Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will see highs just at or below freezing (32) and lows in the upper teens or low 20s. Calm wind, though, which will make a significant difference.
Tuesday (pronunciation in Philly and immediate suburbs: TOOZ-dee) it'll get all the way up to 40. A frickin' heat wave.
Looking at a smaller system for Wednesday night into Thursday that could give us snow and/or freezing rain.
That's all.
April 7th snowstorm. I shit you not.
*sighhhhhhhh*
Hi.
It's windy as balls today, but you already know that. Lots of downed power lines and branches. Winds will diminish overnight.
Thursday 4/5 will be sunny and breezy (but much less windy than today). High in the mid 40s.
The Bunk = all of us.Precipitation begins early Friday - we could see a little bit of wet snow mix in between 2 and 6am Friday, but I don't think it accumulates or causes any travel disruptions.
Overcast for the majority of Friday with occasional showers, especially in the morning.
Snow develops (mixed with rain and sleet at first) early Saturday morning (around 4-6am). Snow continues throughout the rest of Saturday morning, tapering by mid-afternoon. Temperatures staying in the mid-30s throughout the day.
Timing and track are extremely important for this storm; the earlier it starts to snow, the more accumulation we'll see. I'll update the forecast on Friday.
Accumulations:
For Berks, Lancaster, Lehigh Valley, Harrisburg, and York - expect 4-6 inches.
Philly and South Jersey are going to see a lot more mixing, so some areas will just see a slushy coating and some will get as much as 2 inches.
Sunday turns out sunny with a high in the low 40s.
There's the chance of mixed precipitation on Monday into Tuesday, but it's looking like that will be mostly rain and will not be an issue travel-wise.
Stay tuned for AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ENOUGH ALREADY
Monday 3/12 storm
Hi there.
I've been leaning this way, and models are increasingly in agreement: this coastal storm will be a "miss" for us.
Two emperor penguins, DJ Chillfeet (L) and MC Ice Barz, pose for cover shots ahead of their debut mixtape, All About Da Waddle, which drops on April 1.Goes to our south. Way to our south.
There's a slight chance of widely scattered snow showers on Monday afternoon and evening, but did you notice the modifiers I used there? I said "slight" and "widely scattered," so most of us will see nothing.
So just for shits and giggles, here's the forecast for the next week or so:
Sunday 3/11, lots of sunshine and less windy with a high in the mid 40s. Overnight low in the mid 20s.
Monday 3/12, more clouds than sun and SNOW SNOW SNOW!!! jk. High around 40. Overnight low in the mid 20s.
Tuesday 3/13, partly to mostly cloudy and becoming windier with a high in the low 40s. Could be a stray snow shower. Overnight low in the mid 20s.
Wednesday 3/14, cooler and sunny. High only in the upper 30s, which is low for this time of year. Overnight low in the upper 20s.
Thursday 3/15, more sunshine and a bit milder with highs in the mid 40s. But just ask Julius Caesar - anything can happen on this day. Keep your head on a swivel, for sure for sure.
Friday 3/16, sunny and even milder with temperatures climbing into the low 50s.
Next weekend looks milder (upper 50s) but with rain possible on Sunday 3/18.
The following week looks seasonably lovely with afternoon highs in the 50s and overnight lows only getting into the mid to upper 30s.
So have we seen the last of the----
No. Afraid not.
Forecast: Wednesday, March 7, 2018
Right before he jumps (into what he assumes is a shallow puddle, to win a $1 bet), he says, "I do it for the kids."Alright, so there's more.
Monday will be quiet: mostly sunny with a high in the mid 40s.
Tuesday will be similar, but we'll see increasing clouds throughout the morning. On-and-off rain showers will begin by 2-3pm.
Rain will become steadier by about 8pm. Expect rain to begin mixing with wet snow by 10pm, and this mix will continue overnight.
I think it becomes all snow by 3-5am. It'll snow til Wednesday evening - maybe 6-8pm.
Amounts and precipitation type are especially tricky this time of year, given the sun angle, surface temperatures, and all the moving meteorological parts in this storm.
On Monday, I'm going to give more nuanced forecasts (like, broken down by area/specific location). So please let me know via email if you'd like me to include your area in my next forecast.
But here is what I expect for Berks:
Accumulation, 4-6 inches.
I don't see widespread outages and downed limbs/power lines with this storm. Not a whole lot of crazy wind with this one.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 65.44%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 41.66%
Stay tuned for updates!
Update on Saturday's storm
Hi.
I stand by everything in my previous forecast (posted yesterday - Thursday 2/15).
A goatlet (that's what a small goat is called - look it up) jumps onto and offa a capybara (which means "chunky chipmunk" in Portuguese). It makes me happy.Except the part that says "2-3 inches of wet snow at most." This will still be a wet snow, but right around here (Berks, Lehigh, points north) looks like the "sweet spot" that could get 4-5 inches.
Time frame on this quick-moving storm is from 5-6pm Saturday to about 1-2am Sunday. So avoid travel during that window if at all possible.
Saturday, February 17th, 2018
When I said there was "nothing hinky coming," I suppose I spoke too soon.
Although we're in for a bit of snow on Saturday, it's not a major storm.
Here's what I think (as of Thursday 2/15, noonish):
It's going to get progressively cloudier throughout the day today, but really mild - high near 60. Expect rain after about 7 or 8pm, continuing overnight into Friday morning. Since the temperatures will stay in the mid 50s (even overnight), we're not at all concerned with freezing action with this.
On Friday we'll see the temperature drop throughout the day: 50s during the morning commute, 40s in the afternoon (with increasing winds), 30s in the evening (with diminishing winds), 20s overnight.
Happy 93rd birthday on February 17th to one of my favorite actors, Hal Holbrook. He is best-known for his critically acclaimed one-man stage show portraying Mark Twain - and, of course, his pivotal role as background informant "Deep Throat" in the film All the President's Men.Saturday starts out clear and sunny, but clouds up toward mid-afternoon as a fast-moving front approaches. Expect snow (wet, and maybe mixed with some rain at the start) by 4 or 5pm. The bulk of the snow should be from about 7pm Saturday to about 2am Sunday.
Accumulation: 2-3 inches of wet snow at most. Some slippery spots, but the relatively warm ground temperatures recently will help minimize this problem.
So the storm may impact your plans on Saturday evening and Sunday morning, but the bulk of the weekend remains viable for errands and outdoor merriment.
Sunday turns out sunny with a high in the mid 40s.
And then back up to the 60s by Tuesday and Wednesday! So any snowfall will be outta here quickly.
As this storm gets closer, its actual track/impacts/accumulation will become clearer, so stay tuned for updates!
It's the middle of February and highs are in the 40s-50s-60s - so is winter over?
Nah brah.
But there's nothing hinky coming, so that's good.
Hey there, crazy eyes! Happy birthday.First, let me wish a happy 57th birthday to Henry Rollins (born Henry Lawrence Garfield). For those of you unfamiliar with him, he was the lead singer of the punk band Black Flag, has made a bunch of kick-ass albums with his eponymous solo band, and tours relentlessly doing "spoken word" pieces that are one part political rant, one part observational humor, and two parts masterful storytelling. In this brief clip, Henry talks to Stephen Colbert about the value of anger.
The weather, though.
Wednesday, February 14th: sunny to start, high near 50. Rain later. But only rain. Overnight low in the lower 40s.
Thursday will be foggy and variably cloudy. Rainy at night. Unseasonably mild: high in the lower 60s, low in the upper 40s.
Friday will be a day of contrasts: rainy to start with a high in the 50s; low Friday night all the way down to the mid 20s.
Sunny and cold on Saturday 2/17 with a high in the mid 30s. Chance of snow showers overnight Saturday into Sunday, but no accumulation or travel impacts.
Mid-40s and partly cloudy on Sunday. Similar action on Monday.
Tuesday 2/20 and Wednesday 2/21 will be very similar to the next couple of days: mild (highs in the mid to upper 50s) with rain and drizzle, and foggy dampness, and what have you.
And then cooler again on Thursday. Sunny with a high in the low to mid 40s.
So wait, Monsoon. We're almost to the end of February in this forecast. No snow to speak of. I told you winter was over.
Not so fast, Skippy.
The period from February 28th through March 8th looks unseasonably cold and uncharacteristically active in terms of snow/ice/sleet/freezing rain. So potentially kind of nasty. Delays are likely.
And then there's always the chance for a wintry Nor'easter from mid-February through mid-March.
So stay tuned for updates!
Remember to submit your questions about the weather (or not the weather) to me via email.
Monsoon
Should we talk about the weather? (hi, hi, hi)
Just had that song in my head.
Anywho, the weather.
Becoming milder!
Friday will be overcast with a chance of widely scattered flurries in the afternoon. No big deal. Seriously. Temperatures in the mid 30s for much of the day.
Saturday and Sunday look rainy, but the good news is that it'll be rain (not snow or mixed precipitation). It'll also get warm enough (upper 40s on Saturday, lower 50s on Sunday) that the existing ice/snow slop will melt. Downside of that: the rain (which will be heavy at times, particularly on Saturday night and Sunday morning) could combine with the icemelt to cause flooding. :(
Travel note: we could see some fog on Sunday morning, so watch out for travel delays (by air or by ... wheels) due to fog, rain, flooding, whatnot.
Monday2/12 looks a bit chillier behind that rain-producing front. Expect highs in the low to mid 40s with overnight lows in the mid 20s. Pretty cloudy, too.
Partly cloudy and seasonable with highs in the lower 40s and lows in the mid to upper 20s on the following dates:
Tuesday 2/13
Friday 2/16
Saturday 2/17
Sunday 2/18
But what about Wednesday 2/14 and Thursday 2/15, Monsoon? Why have you skipped those dates?
I AM SO GLAD YOU ASKED.
There may be a lil bit of snow/rain on those days. Not huge amounts, and not steady. But enough to be a nuisance.
(Did I oversell that?)
Of course, track and temperature will be key, so there will be updates forthcoming.
Fret not, dear readers.
And stay tuned for updates, why doncha?
THE EAGLES ARE SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!!!!
Amazing. That was just ... breathtaking.
So, focusing on Wednesday's weather: it's going to be a lot like Sunday. Snow, then freezing rain. Slippery driving.
Here's my call, subject to updates / tweaks:
Precipitation begins as snow between 5 and 7am Wednesday.
Sometime between 11 and 1, snow will mix with sleet (frozen pellets) and freezing rain.
Freezing rain (rain that freezes onto surfaces) becomes plain rain (rain that just stays water even when it hits the ground). Expect this to happen between 2 and 4.
And there may even be some mixing back to snow as precipitation ends between 8 and 10pm.
Accumulation: 2 to 4 inches of snow, with .1 to .2 inch of icy crust on top. (This is for Berks. Northern Berks, Schuylkill County, and the Poconos could get higher amounts.)
In Philadelphia and its immediate suburbs, central and south Jersey, and even Lancaster, expect little to no snow accumulation, but (potentially more hazardous) extended periods of sleet and freezing rain.
Impacts: slippery travel, especially on secondary roads, driveways, and lots. Expect hazardous travel between 8am and 2pm.
Schools: timing and temperature are everything, which is usually true with winter forecasting, but especially in this case.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 11.31%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 38.14%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 16.52%
Chance of delay Thursday, 67.33%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 11.22% [note - I forecast the weather. My percentage for Thursday does not account for area schools that may actually close for the Eagles Super Bowl parade.]
Stay tuned for updates!
SUPER BOWL LII FORECAST
All credit for this brilliant image goes to Trevor Wagner, former student and current friend, who, in a Facebook post, referred to Bill Belichick as "Mama Fratelli in a hoodie." I Googled the genius phrase and lo and behold, someone had made the comparison, because it's the internet and of course someone had made this. If I Googled "Stratford-upon-Avon diaper rash walrus," I'm sure something would come up, and I'm positive I wouldn't want to see it.I'm just a little bit excited about the Eagles being in their third-ever Super Bowl and, I predict, finally winning the damn thing.
Eagles 27, Patriots 10.
Now to the weather. We got some proper snow this morning into early afternoon. I expected light snow showers before a rapid changeover to plain rain. And yet, there it was, proper snowing as I drove to Corropolese to pick up my tomato pie for the big game.
So if you're reading this on Sunday afternoon, some secondary roads are still slick - there's a solid coating of snow with a freezing-rain crust on top. But as temperatures rise into the mid and upper 30s and plain rain predominates, expect roads to be just fine.
Rain is finished by 7-8pm. Temperatures will dip into the upper 20s overnight and it'll be windy as (deflated) balls by AM commute time. But I don't expect to see many delays - especially given the fact that we may be looking at a snow day midweek.
Chance of delay Monday 2/5, 12.77%
Chance of cancellation Monday 2/5, 3.29%
So Monday becomes sunny with gusty winds and a high only in the upper 20s.
Tuesday is variably cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon and evening, signifying nothing.
Wednesday is the interesting day. By 2-4am we should see snow develop. This continues on and off until 10-12, when temperatures rise into the upper 30s and we see precipitation mix with (then change rapidly to) plain rain. But the snow could accumulate 1-3 inches before the rain comes, causing some driving issues and resulting in cancellations.
Thursday looks partly cloudy and cold with a high near freezing. Little milder for Friday (high in the mid 30s) but still partly to mostly sunny.
Saturday into Sunday there's a chance for more substantial snow, but it's too early to pinpoint amounts (a lot depends on track and temperatures).
Stay tuned for updates!
Forecast for the very end of January and then right on in to February
A few scattered showers overnight and into Sunday morning. Mostly cloudy with a high in the low 50s, then clouds breaking overnight.
Monday - clouds mixed with sun, then becoming overcast and cooler. High in the mid 40s. In the evening, a few rain showers are possible. Then - after midnight and into Tuesday morning, maybe 10am - expect some scattered snow showers. Fairly windy, too. It appears now that accumulation will be just an inch or two.
No school delays or whatnot.
Tuesday night is a return to the chill: low of 16. Brr.
Tuesday is January 30th. On this day, Dick Cheney, who is still alive, and who has therefore not died, turns 77, proving that karma does not exist.
Also on this day: Phil Collins turns 67, proving that the mere mention of his name can trigger you to hear the “In the Air Tonight” drum fill in your heads.
Wednesday1/31 will be mostly sunny with a high in the mid 30s.
Thursday 2/1 will be overcast but milder - high in the upper 40s.
Friday’s interesting. It will precipitate. The high only gets up to the mid 30s, but warmer air aloft will make some of that precipitation plain old rain. I think it mixes with and changes over to snow by the late afternoon, but my preliminary analysis is that this is no biggie.
Next good chance for snow after this: I’m looking at February 6 and February 13-14. And the period from February 21-28 is looking really active. So yeah, more winter.
Snow update for Mon 1/15 through Wed 1/17
We have increasing clouds (and even a few flurries!) already, so I figured it was time for an update.
Overnight from Monday into Tuesday, there's a slight chance of snow showers. Look for these anytime between 2am and 10am Tuesday. They'll be light and widely scattered. No accumulation or impacts.
The second "round" is the most consequential: snow begins by 1pm, continuing on and off till evening. Expect an inch or two of accumulation and slippery travel. May have some early dismissals and evening activities cancelled, that sort of thing.
And then "round three" is the potential for a bit of Wednesday morning snow, but right now this seems like a miss. Stay tuned for updates.
Brandon Graham #55 - one of the main reasons the Eagles are in the NFC Championship.
Update
on 2018-01-15 22:37 by Monsoon Martin
Follow up:
Percentages! I will do percentages this time for K-12 and for postsecondary (colleges and universities).
Tuesday cancellation - K-12 17.44% - POST 5.41%
Tuesday early dismissal / partial cancellation - K-12 31.59% - POST 27.88%
Wednesday delay / partial cancellation - K-12 73.41% - 64.55%
Wednesday cancellation - K-12 42.32% - POST 19.53%
Thursday delay / partial cancellation - K-12 11.57% - POST 3.47%
Upper 30s by Friday.
40s on Saturday.
50s on Sunday / Monday.
Next good chance for wintry weather: 1/31 through 2/3.
Update
on 2018-01-16 01:38 by Monsoon Martin
Update to the update - 8:35pm
Have nudged a couple of my percentages slightly upward.
Tuesday cancellation - K-12 19.48% - POST 6.77%
Tuesday early dismissal / partial cancellation - K-12 54.54% - POST 32.99%
Wednesday delay / partial cancellation - K-12 79.41% - 68.55%
Wednesday cancellation - K-12 44.32% - POST 22.53%
Thursday delay / partial cancellation - K-12 11.57% - POST 3.47%
Forecast for January 8-9 precipitation event
The really good news I have, weather-wise, is that this arctic freeze is coming to an end: temperatures will climb to near freezing (32) on Monday 1/8, then upper 30s on Tuesday 1/9. Yes - pipes all over the area will thaw out, and I desperately hope they do so peacefully.
So. Cold tonight (Sunday 1/7) with a low of 9.
On Monday, we'll see temperatures rise to 28 or 29, so the concerns we originally had about mixed precipitation / icing will not be an issue. We'll see some periods of snow between about 1 and 6pm. It will accumulate only about 1/2 inch to an inch, but the snowfall could create some reduced visibility and slippery spots, so use caution during the PM commute.
I don't see any appreciable likelihood for this snow event to cause early dismissals Monday or delays Tuesday. #sorryteachersandstudents
Tuesday 1/9 will turn out mostly sunny with a high near 40, which will feel positively balmy compared with the past 10 days or so.
Wednesday 1/10 will be in the 30s and will feature times of clouds and sun.
Thursday 1/11 will bring precipitation, but temperatures will stay in the low to mid 40s, so expect just rain showers and drizzle (rather than anything frozen or wintrily problematic).
Yes, it's a word.
That rainy-drizzly dankness continues on Friday 1/12, when temperatures will mostly by in the mid to upper 40s, but may rise into the low 50s (!).
And then rainy and cooler for at least the first half of Saturday 1/13 with a high of 42 and a low in the upper 20s.
Thereafter: More like seasonal averages for the period from Sunday 1/14 through Wednesday 1/17, with highs in the 30s and lows in the upper teens to low 20s. And then expect temperatures to get milder after that.
The next chance of snow that I see (after Monday 1/8, of course)? Wednesday 1/24 - Thursday 1/25.
Das Geheimnis des fliegenden Fisch...
...or, the Mystery of the Flying Fish. Allow me to explain.
On Wednesday evening, I parked my car on the street across from my home. On Thursday morning, I returned to this vehicle to find a dead fish lying next to it. I called Mrs. Monsoon over to take a look, but neither of us could make sense of it. Then I noticed that the dead fish had evidently been flung (with more than a little bit of force) against the driver's side door/window/side mirror of my car, leaving a telltale slick of fish guts and scales but no damage. I have illustrated the incident for you below with two pictures taken at the scene and time of the fishy discovery.
The creature in question. It is a perch, according to friends, and it is delicious when prepared with a little bit of butter and lemon. This one, not so appetizing.
The aforementioned fish guts and scales. Difficult to see, but I promise they're there.
I made my way to school and began to speculate (with the help of my trusty colleagues) what this could mean, if anything. A Google search revealed that a dead fish left on one's doorstep is a warning that he or she is going to be killed (i.e., will soon be "sleeping with the fishes" in organized crime parlance).
[In response to this revelation, a very wise acquaintance of mine wondered aloud, "If a fish means you'll be sleeping with the fishes, what does a horse head in your bed mean, that you'll be sleeping with the horses? What would that even mean?" What, indeed.]
Today, my good people, there was another fish--not in the same place, and this one had not been flung at my car. But it was a fresh fish on the other side of the street (more or less in front of our house) nonetheless. There was also a dead baby animal, possibly a squirrel, not far away.
I have just one question, and perhaps you fine readers can help me out with an answer:
Several theories have emerged to explain this piscine perplexity--some plausible, some delightfully implausible, some so crazy they just might work. Here is a mishmosh...
- This is a tragic case of the rare but heartbreaking phenomenon of serial ichthycide: catching (or even purchasing) live fish, only to end their lives by flinging them against an immovable object at high speed.
- Fish suicide. Too sad to even elaborate.
- The random acts of local hooligans. Young tom-fools, well lubricated with liquor and laden with a bucketful of fresh-caught fish from Muddy Creek, decided to drive down our street in the wee hours and fling the fish at cars. Makes cow-tipping look like a night at the opera.
- I am being targeted by someone I have rankled: a mouthbreathing tea party type, a disgruntled student, an unabashed white person. The theory is that these fishy incidents will chasten me to stop whatever behavior is causing the objection (in the list above: thinking, grading, and listening to hip hop).
- I am being targeted because I am a teacher, and according to many right-wingers, teachers and their unions are the root of all the social and economic evils now faced by our society.
- I am being targeted by broken-nose types for reasons I cannot fathom.
- I am being targeted by any number of organizations, for any number of reasons that I will not enumerate here: the Victor Emmanuel Society, the Knights of Columbus, the Boy Scouts of America...
- A hawk with missing talons has caught the fish in the creek, but then dropped them due to its disfigurement. This would explain both fishes and the baby rodent, mind you, and I thank Wendi for her demented genius.
- The nine-year-old girl in the pink jacket who lives nearby is actually a child prodigy who has built a fully functioning catapult out of twigs and acorns; she has been testing it out using creatures killed by her pet cat and left in their yard.
Well, that's it. Vote for your favorite, or provide another idea. The best ones will be included in my next post. I've gotta move on: bigger fish to fry. (Sorry. I showed admirable fish-idiom restraint throughout that story, I think.)
Friday night, rain tapering to scattered drizzle by the evening. Low 38.
Saturday, foggy to start, and then mostly cloudy; slight chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon. Breezy. High 58, low 44.
Sunday, cloudy and rainy, mainly in the afternoon. High 64, low 53.
Monday, partly cloudy with warm southwest breezes. Look for strong thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening. High 79, low 56.
Tuesday, very windy and markedly cooler with the chance of a lingering shower or thunderstorm in the morning. High 61, low 36.
Wednesday, sunny, breezy and pleasant. High 63, low 40.
Thursday, partly cloudy and warmer. High 69, low 46.
Friday, cloudy with rain possible. High 65, low 54.
Next weekend (the 16th and 17th), rainy and warmer with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.