Nor'easter - February 22, 2026
Snow.
After a couple of days trying to sort out Sunday's storm (track, precipitation type, etc.) - and wading through the many (and often wildly different from one another) forecast model runs, which now include AI forecasting of varying types and proclivities - I have a better idea of what we might see.
W. H. Auden, born 2/21/1907So here is something approximating an informed stab a respectable amateur meteorological take.
First, the snow is going to be heavy and wet, periodically mixed with rain, as noted below.
Baltimore - Washington: precip begins early Sunday morning, say sometime between 5 and 7. Rain could mix in a bit in the afternoon, driving down accumulations. I think we'll see mostly snow due to lower temperatures aloft, along with periods of heavy snow that will cause prodigious accumulation. Winds will begin moderate, but by late afternoon and evening (and even into Monday morning), we'll see them kick up to 15-20mph sustained with gusts up to 30-35mph. Nothing catastrophic, but there could be isolated instances of tree damage and power outages. And of course, some areas (mostly on the NJ-DE-MD coasts) will see periods of blizzard-like conditions.
Nina Simone, born 2/21/1933
- Accumulations - 5-8 inches generally in the DMV, but that number could be reduced if a significant portion of the precipitation is rain. Isolated areas could see as much as a foot!
- School Monday? - No.
- When will it end? - continues overnight from Sunday to Monday, tapering by noon and ending by mid-afternoon.
Barbara Jordan, born 2/21/1936Norristown - Bucks - Philly: similar observations about the timing (Sunday early morning through Monday late morning) and winds. Should be spared from blizzard-like conditions.
- Accumulations - 7-10 inches with isolated areas approaching 14-16 inches.
- School Monday? - No. Probably not Tuesday either.
- When will it end? - tapers and then comes to an end around noon Monday.
Alan Rickman, born 2/21/1946Jersey Shore, Delaware beaches, Maryland's Eastern Shore: increased likelihood of blizzard-like conditions (higher winds than described in the forecast areas above) which could bring greater indicidence of power outages.
- Accumulations - could be in the 9-12 range with several inches more possible in isolated areas. The snow forecast numbers for this region could fall dramatically if there is more rain (or even mostly rain).
Tituss Burgess, born 2/21/1979
- School Monday? - No. Could be more days off if there are widespread power outages and/or flooding.
- When will it end? - starts as a wintry mix by mid-morning on Sunday, winding up a bit later than the other regions (tapering and ending by around dinnertime on Monday).
Jennifer Love Hewitt, born 2/21/1979Reading - Berks - Lancaster: similar to Norristown - Bucks - Philly. An increased risk of blizzard (or blizzard-like) conditions, which can result in more quickly deteriorating road conditions, blowing and drifting snow.
- Accumulations - 6-12 inches, more in isolated areas.
- School Monday? - No, although it seems to be increasingly popular for schools to deploy and two-hour delay even when the road/lot conditions remain treacherous.
- When will it end? - noon Monday (or shortly thereafter)
Jordan Peele, born 2/21/1979
And there you have it. A good, old-fashioned bomb cyclone to round out a miserably frigid and snowy winter.
Enjoy!
💓 Monsoon
A snow forecast from your old pal Monsoon
Howsabout a snow forecast for old times' sake?
Forecasting Monday evening/Tuesday morning's snow/rain event. Will provide prognostications/outright guesses for four forecast zones: northern-central Berks; southern Berks-northern Lancaster County and Warrington; Norristown, Blue Bell, King of Prussia; and Baltimore City & Coumty.
Complaints? Call 1-866-YOMOMMA.
Praise and admiration? Email me here.
The forecast:
N-central Berks - snow starts 2am early Tuesday. Steadiest 7am-12noon. Between 10am-2pm, snow will mix with (and change to) rain. Precipitation ends by 8-10pm at the latest. It's what we in the meteorological industry call a "quick hitter." Accumulation 2-4 inches. School closing numbers: delay 38%, cancellation 30%.
S Berks/Nolanco/Warrington - snow starts between 3-4am. Steadiest 8-10am. Mixing and changing very quickly. Precipitation ends by 7-10pm. Accumulation 1-3 inches. School closing: delay 12%, cancellation 16%.
Central Montco - snow starts 4-5am. Steadiest 7-9am. Mixing and changing to rain very early on in the storm. Accumulation coating to 1.4 inches. Delay 9%, cancellation 4.75%.
Charm City and its environs - snow and rain starting around 6am and continuing through 6pm. The mixing will be nearly instantaneous and will result in little to no accumulation (0-.5 inches). No chance of delay or cancellation.
General thoughts about this (meteorological) winter, which runs from 12/1 to 2/28. Cold. More snow than normal.
As always, keep it real.
Monsoon
Super Bowl Sunday 2021 snow forecast
Regarding tomorrow's snow:
Monsoon
P.S. As much as I hate Tom Brady, I think the Bucs are going to win the game. Prediction: 24-13.
In-event snow update - 12/16/2020 at 2:35pm
Hi all,
In NW Baltimore, we have 3.5 inches and it's still snowing big-ass flakes. Forecast was for an inch or two of intermittent precipitation with lots of mixing. Haven't seen any mixing yet.
Could you post your current totals with location, time, road condition observations, pictures, and any other observations? (Best way to do this is by replying to my FB post or posting a comment at the end of this post.)
Be safe out there if you must drive.
Monsoon
Hope.
“Hope” is the thing with feathers -
That perches in the soul -
And sings the tune without the words -
And never stops - at all -
And sweetest - in the Gale - is heard -
And sore must be the storm -
That could abash the little Bird
That kept so many warm -
I’ve heard it in the chillest land -
And on the strangest Sea -
Yet - never - in Extremity,
It asked a crumb - of me.
-- Emily Dickinson
March 3-4, 2019 storm
I'ma get right to it.
Potential for a big snowstorm.
Snow begins between 12-2pm Sunday. Heaviest snow is between about 6 and 11pm. Snow wraps up by 6-7am.
Here are more precise forecasts for some places:
Reading/Berks/Lehigh Valley/Lebanon Valley/North Jersey: 6-10 inches. Isolated areas will get a whole-ass foot. It will be heavy, wet snow, so shoveling is going to be particularly shitty. Schools are closed Monday, delay Tuesday. We may even see delays on Wednesday and Thursday, too, because it is going to be FRIGID. Overnight lows in the single digits. #shityanot
Montco/Bucks/Chester/Philly/Delco/central Jersey: 4-6 inches. The precipitation will most likely start as rain around noon, but change over to snow by late afternoon. We may even see some ice pellets (aka sleet) mix in during the heaviest period of precipitation (between 6pm and midnight). I still think schools are closed on Monday. Delays are on the table Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday as well.
South Jersey/Delaware/shorepoints: 1-3 inches at most, with the majority of the precipitation likely falling as rain. I don't think you'll see school closures in this area, but it's a remote possibility.
As I said, cold after the storm, and really cold and windy on Tuesday in particular. Yeah, screw you, Tuesday.
Never mind what all this is; just know that this image shows all the ingredients for a big-ass storm.Monsoon
Oh and I almost forgot: there's another chance of snow on Friday 3/8 and Sunday 3/10 (both appear to be moderate events at most; I will continue to track them and provide an update some time next week. (And hey, loyal readers: I encourage you to remind me if it appears I have forgotten to do this. For reals.)
I will tell you now about the outside conditions expected for approximately the ensuing ten days
aka the Forecast.
New format: I am going to offer one single forecast for the entire greater Philadelphia region. If the forecast for Berks (or Lancaster, or Princeton, or Cape May), I will mention it. Otherwise, you can assume that the greater Philadelphia forecast applies to you as well.
Monday 2/25: windy as balls. Really gusty ones. High in the mid to upper 30s, but it'll feel like the 20s. (Gusts over 50mph at times, which whoa.) Low in the low to mid 20s. Sunny, though!
Happy birthday on 2/25 to Herbert Manfred ("Zeppo Marx"), who is dead.
Tuesday 2/26: sunny and still breezy, but not as bad as Monday. High in the mid to upper 30s, low in the upper teens to low 20s. Like, a serious wintry day.
Happy birthday on 2/26 to Tony Randall, who is dead.
Wednesday 2/27: becoming cloudier. Then overcast. A slight chance of afternoon snow showers, so much more likely is a dry, cloudy day. Temperatures steady in the low to mid 30s.
Happy birthday on 2/27 to John Steinbeck, who is dead.
Thursday 2/28: since this is not a leap year, this will, in fact, be the last day of February. Expect clouds mixed with sun, and highs in the low 40s. A bit of snow developing overnight Thursday into Friday. Literally, it will span two months.
Happy birthday on 2/28 to Frank Gehry, who was born on this day in 1929, and who is ... well, I'll be damned, he's alive and well. In fact, he is pictured above reacting to my assumption that he was dead.
Friday 3/1: overcast with highs in the upper 30s to near 40. Rain and drizzle, with wet snow and freezing rain more likely in Berks and areas north and west.
Happy birthday on 3/1 to Roger Daltrey, who is still one of the most kick-ass rock singers ever and who is definitively not dead.
Saturday 3/2: overcast with rain and drizzle; temperatures could get into the upper 50s and even 60s. We could even see a thunderstorm! Shit ya not. (Stays a bit chiller up in Lehigh Valley and Berks: highs in the upper 40s, but still rain and drizzle.) Then becoming much colder and very windy at night.
Happy birthday on 3/2 to Laraine Newman, because I haven't had a woman on here yet, and what the shit is that about. Oh, and she is not dead.
Sunday 3/3: sunny and windy with highs only getting up to the mid 30s. (That's barely above freezing, which is 32°F.
Happy birthday on 3/3 to Ruby Dandridge, who is dead.
Monday 3/4: snow, mark it down. Or maybe not. But it looks pretty likely.
Happy birthday on 3/4 to Patsy Kensit, who is not dead. I admit it: I did not think this through, the whole birthday shout-out thing. I mean, I've done eight now, and I have two more to go. Nothing to do now but just see it through.
Tuesday 3/5: morning snow, then clearing. I'm serious! For reals.
Happy birthday on 3/5 to Marsha Warfield, who is not dead. And yes, I am going to have five women in a row to balance out the five men in a row with whom I started this ill-conceived enterprise.
Wednesday 3/6: clearing, but still cold. Mid-30s at best. (Maybe 40 in Montco, Chesco, Delco, and ... Philco?) Milder thereafter - 40s, 50s, and beyond.
Happy birthday on 3/6 to Pauline Matthews ("Kiki Dee"), who is not dead.
Stay tuned for updates...
The second half of February = eine Scheiße zeigen
That's German for "shit show," but I didn't want to have a profanity in the title of my post. (For the children.)
Here's why I called the end of February a bad word:
Rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, iceification, slush, slop.
Let me break it down to ... walnut brown.
It rhymes. And it's not suspiciously ethnocentric and possibly racist, unlike "I'll take you down to Chinatown."
BUT I DIGRESS.
So let's talk about the first thing, which is Sunday to Monday. And this time, I'll put the forecast for Berks, followed by the forecast for Norristown in brackets. Like this:
On Monday, the skies will teem with falling toads. High 47, low 29. [Monday: toads, toads, and more toads. 50/31.]
Note: the above is just an example; we will not be beset with any biblically cataclysmic precipitation. As far as I know.
Happy birthday today to my favorite actor working today, Mahershala Ali. He was in the fantastic film Green Book, he was in Hidden Figures, and he's in the new season of True Detective. And little-known fact: his entire first name is actually Mahershalalhashbaz. That's a MAN'S name right there.
Sunday 2/17: Scattered snow showers appear by 6pm. Continue on and off throughout the night. Ends by 6-7am Monday. Maybe a scattered snow or rain shower through 11am Monday. Accumulation a coating to an inch. High Sunday 37, low 30. [Scattered snow showers--possibly mixed with sleet--by 7pm. On and off overnight. Ends by 3-4am, with a few lingering snow showers possible through 10am. Accumulation a coating only.]
Monday 2/18 will turn out partly cloudy and breezy. High 41, low 22. [Ditto. High 42, low 25.]
Tuesday 2/19: sunny for most of the day. Increasing clouds by the evening. No snow til after midnight. High 36, low 25. [Ditto. 38/24.]
Snow starts (scattered showers) after midnight; some steadier snow throughout Wednesday morning. Steadiest snow will fall between noon and 8pm. Some mixing (and perhaps the worst travel issues) from 8pm-midnight. High Wednesday 33, low 27. Thursday will see a lingering chance for scattered rain or snow showers (or some freezing rain, which will SUCK). High 41, low 29. [Ditto. Steadiest snow 1pm-8pm. Mixing 4-8pm. Wednesday's high 34, low 29. Thursday, ditto. High 46, low 33.]
Guys, this looks like a sloppy mess. Cold air will dam (stay put in our area) and there will be plenty of moisture to fuel this storm. And there's a thing called overrunning, which basically means that even though surface temperatures will be around freezing, other parts of the atmosphere will be warmer, adding up to a mixed bag of frozen shitfulness.
Accumulation: 5-7 inches; if there is significant mixing, the snow totals will be down, but the road hazards will actually increase. [For Norristown: 3-5 inches; same thing about the mixing and the roads. *turd emoji*]
School scheduling snafus: isolated delays on Monday; widespread closures on Wednesday; widespread delays on Thursday.
And what's that you say? You want more? Alright.
The last four days of February have the potential to be pretty dicey. Prett-ay, prett-ay, prett-ay dicey. Lots of moisture, cold air stays in place. So gross.
P.S. Oh! Check out this link from the PSU Department of Meteorology website. Not terribly useful meteorologically, or germane to this discussion, but it's so badass! (Wait for the animation to load. I promise it's worth it.)
Two Mid-February Jawns.
Right to it, because I'm mad late to this party.
Wait, I've got something to say first. You know how when it snows, it's harder to see? And roads get slippery? Yes? THEN WHY IN THE NAME OF HERMES' CADUCEUS DO PEOPLE STILL DRIVE SO G.D. FAST? For shit's sake, people: slow down.
This first bit is the forecast for Reading/Berks:
Snow Sunday evening, starting about 9pm. Pretty light snow overnight, wrapping up by about 6 or 7am Monday. Accumulation will be 1.65 inches. Roads will be dicey, so widespread two-hour delays are likely (and there may even be isolated closings where the snow lingers).
We could see some snow showers (mixed with sleet at times) between 11am and 7pm on Monday. Expect little or no accumulation during this period, but watch for temporarily reduced visibility and road iceification. (Yes, I just made up that word. Come at me.)
Then the more significant and disruptive storm arrives. Starts snowing in earnest around 9pm Monday night.
By Tuesday morning about 7am, there will be 3.1 inches of snow on the ground, and it will still be snowing. By about noon, expect to see the snow mix with (and briefly change over to) sleet; by mid-afternoon, it will change to all rain. But then in the evening there will likely be some sleet mixing in, and sometime late Tuesday night, it will change back to snow! And that snow doesn't end until maybe 6-7am Wednesday.
Total accumulation from this whole storm (Monday night to Wednesday morning) will be 6.3 inches, but it's the snow-packed roads, untreated surfaces, and the widespread iceification that are going to be the real disruptors here.
(The salt and brine and whatnot that were applied to various surfaces during our last spate of storms - that all washed away in the rain. So unless that solution was reapplied, don't expect to achieve any traction on said surfaces.)
Expect widespread school closings on Tuesday, and widespread two-hour delays on Wednesday.
So again: school delays likely on Monday and Wednesday; closures likely on Tuesday.
Now let's talk about the Norristown/Montco area:
Snow starts around 10-11pm Sunday night. Light snow wrapping up by about 7-8am Monday. Accumulation 1.56 inches. Dicey roads, widespread school delays (and there may even be isolated closings where the snow lingers).
Snow showers (with sleet mixed in at times) between 12 noon and 8pm on Monday. Watch out for the iceification (I made up that word in the Reading/Berks forecast, then decided to use it here again. Object to the coinage? I WILL FIGHT YOU.).
Look for the real storm to arrive (and snow to begin in earnest) by 9-10pm on Monday. By 7am Tuesday morning, there will be 2.45 inches of snow on the ground - and it will still be snowing. By noon, snow will mix with (then change over to) sleet. All rain by late afternoon and into the evening, then mixed with sleet, and then back to snow! Daaaaamn.
Snow ends by 7-8am Wednesday morning.
Total accumulation (Monday night to Wednesday morning) will be precisely 5.5 inches, but expect more disruption from the snow-packed roads, untreated surfaces, and widespread iceification.
(The salt and brine and whatnot that were applied to various surfaces during our last spate of storms - that all washed away in the rain. So unless that solution was reapplied, don't expect to achieve any traction on said surfaces.)
Expect widespread school closings on Tuesday; some two-hour delays on Wednesday.
So again: school delay likely on Monday, widespread closures on Tuesday, and some delays on Wednesday.
Update for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Reading/Berks first:
Snow starts 6-7am Tuesday. Snow is steadiest between about 10am and 4pm. All over by 7-8pm. Accumulation, 3-5 inches. Monsoon Martin's You Bet Your Asscast Guarantee©®™ - snow days for everyone!
Most treacherous travel is in the afternoon and evening.
Some leftover snow squalls on Wednesday, particularly in the afternoon. Throughout the day, temps will plunge and winds will kick up. MMYBYAG©®™ - 40% chance of delay; 5% chance of cancellation.
Low of -2 on Wednesday night, so thanks a pantload, Mother Nature.
And on Thursday it will only get up to 9 (yes, NINE) with negative wind chills. I would give it 25% for delays on Thursday.
Now Norristown/Montco:
Snow starts 9-10am Tuesday. Mixes with (and, for a time, changes to) rain in the afternoon, then changes back to snow for the period of about 6-10pm. Accumulation, 1-3 inches. Roads should be OK during the day - just slushy. But in the evening and overnight, slippy. MMYBYAG©®™ - cancellation chances are slim.
Wednesday will see snow showers and increasing winds, but little to no accumulation or travel impact. MMYBYAG©®™ - 15% chance of delay.
And on Thursday temps will be a few degrees higher than Berks, so whoop-de-frickin-doo.
Stay tuned for updates!
End of January 2019.
Here is the weather. Sunday through Sunday? Sound good? Good.
Reading/Berks weather will be presented first. [Norristown/Montco weather will be presented in brackets.]
Let's start with Sunday 1/27, shall we?
Mostly cloudy and milder, but kinda windy. So the high will be 44, but it will feel like 36. Overnight temperatures will get down to 22. [Partly to mostly cloudy. High 46, feels like 41. Overnight low 24.]
What about Monday 1/28? I will tell you.
Partly cloudy. High 35. Slight breeze. Low 25. [Mostly sunny. High 38. Slight breeze. Low 26.]
And Tuesday 1/29? Patience. Don't vex me.
Starts off cloudy and windy. Maybe a stray rain or snow shower in the afternoon. As temperatures plunge, we'll get a litta bitta snow. 1-2 inches. Nothing crazy. High 43, low 18. [Cloudy and windy with rain showers in the afternoon. Wet snow and/or rain at night. Coating to an inch. High 45, low 20.]
What about Wednesday 1/30? I will turn this car around, I shit you not.
This will be your face.
This is where it gets cold as balls. What's colder than "cold as balls"? Cold as ball. (One froze off.)
Mostly sunny and really, really cold. High 21 (feels like 6 cuzza the wind), low -2 (feels like -11, same reason). [Sunny and windy. High 25 (feels like 12), low 4 (feels like -5).]
Surely Thursday 1/31 will be more hospitable? It will not. You will very nearly freeze to death.
Sunny, windy, bitterly cold. High 15 (feels like 3), low 3 (feels like -5). [Sunny, windy, bitterly cold. High 18 (feels like 5), low 7 (feels like -2).]
Mostly sunny and breezy on Friday 2/1 (DON'T EVEN). High 20 (feels like 12), low 7 (feels like 3). [Same. High 26 (feels like 17), low 10 (feels like 7).]
But will the weekend be nicer? Stop whining.
Plenty of sunshine, highs in the upper 20s, lows in the low to mid teens. Still pretty breezy. [Samesies. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.]
It might snow on Monday 2/4. I'm on it. Will report back.
Stay tuned for updates!
Weather ruminations and forecast update
Here's the thing about the weather, and I find it both maddening and exhilarating: it does what it wants.
There are 4-5 major forecast models (and myriad lesser ones) that rely on data and algorithms and trends to develop a forecast. It should be noted that these models rarely agree, which should be a clear signal that the weather almost seems to be actively resisting being accurately predicted. Like, you think you can forecast me? Well, watch this.
In more specific terms, even with all of our technological advances and measurement tools and whatnot, forecasting certain kinds of weather still feels like--at best--a notch or two above a coin flip.
Meteorologists have gotten pretty good at predicting temperatures, pretty good at reading the isobars and isotherms, shit like that. But when it comes to any kind of precipitation, forecasting is downright hapless. And with "hyperlocal" forecasting, which purports to be able to pinpoint the exact conditions you will encounter when you step outside the door, the accuracy seems to have gotten even less reliable.
How many times have you checked the weather on your phone and it says "it's raining, you're gonna get soaked, abandon hope," but you go outside and it's not doing shit? Birds singing, blue skies, dry pavement? Idyllic as you please.
Or it says that snow will begin in 17 minutes, but it actually began about an hour ago and already stopped, and never starts up again?
As it relates to the weekend storm, various weather outlets and meteorologists (and the forecast models that, to a large extent, drive them) will tell you exactly when it's supposed to start precipitating; when it's snow, or freezing rain, or plain rain, or sleet; when the roads will be slippery. But there's so much happening in the atmosphere during a storm that this certainty is laughable. 95% of those predictions will be wrong, and the other 5% got close because a broken clock is still right twice a day, which come to think of it, is one of those rare sayings that works with us old-heads (clocks with hands) and young-uns (digital jawns) alike.
One neighborhood will get 10 inches of snow while the next one over gets 4 inches. Hamburg gets mostly rain, but Shillington gets ice and snow. Shouldn't it be the other way around?
Last thing on this: there are so many layers to the atmosphere (each one is like its own ecosystem), and so many currents and streams in that atmosphere that move warm air and cold air and tepid air hither and thither, that it's a wonder any storm forecast is ever accurate. Because really, when it comes down to it, despite the GFS, the NAM, the Euro, Siri, Alexa, Google, and your mom--we have little understanding of why things happen.
So what are you saying, Monsoon? You're not going to even try to navigate us through this meteorological minefield? You're just throwing up your hands?
Alright, so here's the forecast and I'm going to do six zones, because that's the type of magnanimous and inclusive motherfucker I am:
Philadelphia and surrounding counties: snow starts around 1pm Saturday, accumulating an inch or two. By 6 or 7pm, snow mixing with, then changing over to, rain, which continues overnight. Sleet mixes in around 7-9am, then temperatures begin their plunge, so back to snow by 10-11am. Snow tapers by mid-afternoon and is finished by 4pm. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon, Sunday morning, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).
Lehigh Valley and Berks: snow starts about 12-1pm Saturday, accumulating 2-3 inches. Snow mixes with sleet between 10pm and midnight; plain rain overnight (about 12-5), then freezing rain, sleet, and snow from 5-8, then snow from 8am-2pm Sunday. Total accumulations: 4-6 inches of snow and sleet. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon, Sunday morning, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).
Lancaster, York, and Cumberland: Snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain straight away (1pm-midnight). Plain rain overnight. Maybe a bit of snow at the end (11am-1pm Sunday). Very little if any accumulation. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon and evening, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).
North Jersey and NYC: Snow arrives 3-4pm Saturday. Snow mixes with sleet and freezing rain around midnight, then changes over to sleet and freezing rain. Expect 2-4 inches of snow and ice from this storm, as well as several days of travel paralysis. Oh! And power outages. A little snow mixed in on the "back end" (Sunday afternoon), but nothing that will add to storm totals appreciably. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon through Tuesday morning (low temps, very strong winds, ice, travel woes, stay inside).
South Jersey: this looks like an all-rain event for you lucky sons of bitches down the shore. Maybe a little snow mixed in on the "back end" (Sunday afternoon), but don't you dare complain about that. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative single digits by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: maybe a little slipperiness on Sunday afternoon? Then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, very strong winds, ice).
Bucks County and central Jersey / Princeton: rain and snow start by around noon Saturday. Becomes all snow after 5 or 6pm. Then mixes with sleet 9-10pm, then after midnight it's all rain. Changing to sleet and freezing rain by 5 or 6am, then maybe a bit of snow on Sunday afternoon. Total accumulation, 2-4 inches of sleet and snow. Pretty gross, sounds like. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold. Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.
Worst travel times: Saturday evening and overnight, Sunday morning, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).
Stay tuned for updates!
Two systems to discuss.
The first one, affecting the region overnight Thursday into Friday, is relatively weak and fast-moving, so impacts should be minor to moderate.
The second one, heading at us from Saturday afternoon to Sunday evening, has the potential to be significantly disruptive and messy. And it will usher in the coldest air of the season. By far.
But I'm getting ahead of myself.
Thursday will be partly cloudy with a high of 31. As clouds roll in, we could see an isolated snow shower or two as early as 5 or 6pm, but generally the snow will not begin in earnest until 8-9pm (Berks) and 9-10pm (Montgomery). Snow continues intermittently (and of varying intensity) until about 5-6am (Berks) and 6-7am (Montgomery). Storm totals: 1-2.75 inches (Berks) and .33-1.41 inches (Montgomery). Slippery conditions can develop quickly--even with just a coating of powdery snow--so be careful.
Classic two-hour delay scenario setting up for schools on Friday, so hey, there's that.
Alright, so the weekend.
There are a lot of "moving parts" to this system. It's not just a huge area of moisture that we can follow into the region, and there's a lot of instability throughout the atmosphere--and uncertainty regarding the precise track--that could have drastic ramifications in terms of amounts, precipitation types, and whatnot.
This is not to say that I cannot or will not give you a forecast. To refuse to do that would be wussy. And I may be a wuss when it comes to (and this is not an exhaustive list) sullying my hands or approaching a spider, I am most certainly not a wuss when it comes to forecasting.
Go big or go home, I always say. (Again, in almost every other scenario, I would absolutely go home. But not this one.)
Snow begins Saturday 12-1pm over the entire area. Expect some heavy snowfall rates Saturday afternoon and evening. There will be mixing (late evening and overnight) that may result in significant icing. Expect a period of freezing rain (rain that freezes onto the surface) on Sunday morning before changing back over to snow on the "back end" - Sunday between 12 and 6pm.
Right now, I'd say we should expect total snow accumulations of 8-10 inches in the Lehigh Valley and northern Berks, with higher amounts in Schuylkill County and the Poconos. Dunder Mifflin could see as much as 18-22 inches.
Southern Berks, Lancaster County, Montgomery County, whatnot: 6-8 inches with some ice thrown in for shits and giggles.
Philadelphia could see very minimal snow accumulations from this system: 2-4 inches at most. South Jersey and Delaware will likely see all or mostly rain.
Other selected predictions:
Princeton, 4-6 inches
Nutley, 8-12 inches
And then it gets so frickin' cold, you won't even believe it. Remember that part in The Day After Tomorrow when it gets so cold that everything goes limp and then freezes and then crumbles apart? Well, not that bad. But still.
Note the savvy product placement from Wendy's.
Temperatures Sunday evening and overnight will plunge into the single digits (5 in Berks; 8 in Montgomery) and it will get very windy Sunday evening (15-20mph with gusts over 30), so wind chills will plunge to the negative teens by Monday morning. If school were in session on Monday, there would be at least a two-hour delay. But since it is an in-service day, teachers and staff will be expected to report at normal time. *shrugging person emoji that I can't figure out how to insert into this forecast*
High on Monday reaches 17 (Berks), 19 (Montgomery); still pretty windy. High on Tuesday reaches 27 (Berks), 29 (Montgomery); not nearly as windy.
Rest of the week: highs in the 30s.
Following weekend: cold as balls again. Highs in the low 20s; lows in the single digits.
Snow?
First of all, I want to wish my nephew a happy birthday. He's a year old today! Love ya, Griffin.
Anywho. The scuttlebutt is that there's some snow in the forecast this weekend.
I wondered where the term "scuttlebutt" came from, and thought it had to do with coal or fireplaces (for there is mention of a "coal scuttle" in Dickens' A Christmas Carol), but I was not quite correct.
The term, nautical in origin, actually refers to a cask or barrel (a butt) of drinking water kept on the deck of a ship; this vessel had a hole (or scuttle) in its lid so that sailors could access the water. Since the sailors often exchanged gossip whilst partaking in this fresh water, the term for a rumor became scuttlebutt.
So the scuttlebutt was literally the water cooler of the 19th century.
Sailors round the scuttlebutt, portrayed as far more staid and polite than they actually likely were.And for those who are now wondering what in Dickensian hell a "coal scuttle" is, it's a bucket or pail (a scuttle) which contains a modest supply of coal for feeding a coal-fired stove or heater.
This what happens when I decide to write a forecast: I cannot simply activate the prognosticational portion of my brain without activating all of it.
The weather.
It now looks pretty certain that the snow will stay to our south, giving us just a dusting.
The deets.
Light snow moves in about 8 or 9pm Saturday. Little or no accumulation, but remember that even a dusting can cause travel woes on untreated roadways. Maybe a snow shower or two overnight and early Sunday morning, ending by 5am and accumulating a coating to seven-eighths of an inch. Lingering light snow shower through the rest of Sunday morning, but no big.
Cold. (I mean, January. Expect that shit.) Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will see highs just at or below freezing (32) and lows in the upper teens or low 20s. Calm wind, though, which will make a significant difference.
Tuesday (pronunciation in Philly and immediate suburbs: TOOZ-dee) it'll get all the way up to 40. A frickin' heat wave.
Looking at a smaller system for Wednesday night into Thursday that could give us snow and/or freezing rain.
That's all.
The last time I will have to use the "s word" for at least 6 months
A little bit of snow overnight. Not a big deal but the timing could have a (fairly minimal) impact on the Tuesday morning commute.
Here's what to expect:
Rain showers develop by 9 or 10pm. Temperatures fall through the 30s overnight.
Rain will mix with (and briefly change to) wet snow between about midnight and 7am.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 12.43%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 0.31%
High on Tuesday will get into the lower 50s.
Wednesday - sunny and mid 50s.
Thursday - showers, high in the mid 60s.
Friday and Saturday - gorgeous!! Sunny with highs in the low to mid 70s. Showers on Sunday.
But at least it's not snow, am I right? Or am I right?
April 6th and 7th update
Hey there, gang.
So recent models have trended on a southward track - which means chances for accumulating, disruptive snow in our area have drastically decreased!
First, there will be some precipitation moving through tomorrow morning that may impact the morning commute.
Mixed light snow/sleet showers will be moving through between 4-8am, which could slickify roads in some areas. I don't expect widespread issues, but it's just something to keep in mind.
Chance of cancellation Friday, 4.51%
Chance of delay Friday, 8.11%
On Saturday morning, we'll just see light wet snow showers. Some areas could see as much as an inch, but generally we'll have a coating to a half-inch on grassy areas. I don't think it'll snow steadily enough to counteract the April sun angle and coat the roads.
So your plans for Saturday should be A-OK.
(To one reader in particular: your bloody hopes have come true. 😜)
Stay tuned for updates!
April 7th snowstorm. I shit you not.
*sighhhhhhhh*
Hi.
It's windy as balls today, but you already know that. Lots of downed power lines and branches. Winds will diminish overnight.
Thursday 4/5 will be sunny and breezy (but much less windy than today). High in the mid 40s.
The Bunk = all of us.Precipitation begins early Friday - we could see a little bit of wet snow mix in between 2 and 6am Friday, but I don't think it accumulates or causes any travel disruptions.
Overcast for the majority of Friday with occasional showers, especially in the morning.
Snow develops (mixed with rain and sleet at first) early Saturday morning (around 4-6am). Snow continues throughout the rest of Saturday morning, tapering by mid-afternoon. Temperatures staying in the mid-30s throughout the day.
Timing and track are extremely important for this storm; the earlier it starts to snow, the more accumulation we'll see. I'll update the forecast on Friday.
Accumulations:
For Berks, Lancaster, Lehigh Valley, Harrisburg, and York - expect 4-6 inches.
Philly and South Jersey are going to see a lot more mixing, so some areas will just see a slushy coating and some will get as much as 2 inches.
Sunday turns out sunny with a high in the low 40s.
There's the chance of mixed precipitation on Monday into Tuesday, but it's looking like that will be mostly rain and will not be an issue travel-wise.
Stay tuned for AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ENOUGH ALREADY
April 1-2 update
What will happen, timeline:
12-1am Monday 4/2, rain showers develop. Temperatures around 40, but they will fall rapidly through the 30s.
3-4am Monday, rain mixes with (then rapidly changes to) wet snow.
Temperatures around freezing (32) from about 5-8am, which is critical in terms of impacting the AM commute.
About 9-10am, snow will be outta here. So it's a fairly fast-moving system.
Accumulations will be widely varied based on where the heavy bands (areas of heavy, intense snow) set up. Grassy and unpaved surfaces will also see much more accumulation than roads and sidewalks.
Most of us will see 2-3 inches of slushy accumulation.
School impacts:
Chance of delay Monday, 74.38%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 31.56%
THE WINTER THAT WOULD NOT DIE
There is the potential for snow on Sunday 4/1 into Monday 4/2.
This is not an April Fools joke.
(I will pause for a moment for you to react to this news in whatever way you feel.)
Alright. So let's talk about what to expect on Saturday 3/31 through the first week of April.
Saturday 3/31 - sunny for most of the day with a high in the upper 50s. Kinda breezy at night. Only getting down to the mid 40s.
Sunday 4/1 - today is the day that Christians celebrate Easter. It is also the birthday of reggae legend Jimmy Cliff (1948), The Minutemen's D. Boon (1958), and YouTube douchecanoe Logan Paul (1995).
[Incidentally, The Minutemen are my favorite band of all time. I could talk about them for days, but I will not abuse your attention in that manner.]
So it's going to be partly to mostly cloudy on Sunday. High of around 55. A bit breezy, but jeez, deal with it.
Expect scattered rain showers to develop by 9 or 10pm Sunday night, so this action should not impact Easter plans or travel.
Temperatures drop into the mid 30s overnight, but are even colder aloft, so it's likely that the rain showers will change to snow - maybe 3am-8am is the window for potentially accumulating snow.
Possible accumulation is an inch or two at most. But the timing could impact the morning commute.
The sun will rise on Monday 4/2 at 6:46am, so the sunshine (even obscured by clouds at first) will melt/mitigate any slippery accumulation.
Becoming mostly sunny with a high near 50. Some rain may develop overnight Monday into Tuesday 4/3, but that will just be plain rain (nothing wintry). High in the low 50s.
Kinda rainy / showery on Wednesday 4/4 as well with a high in the mid 50s.
Clear and sunny and breezy, but chillier again, on Thursday 4/5. High only in the low to mid 40s.
Chilly and rainy on Friday 4/6 - high in the upper 40s.
The first full weekend in April looks (mostly) dry but still unseasonably chilly - highs in the mid to upper 40s.
If you insist: here is a video (just contains audio) of one of my favorite songs by The Minutemen.
Stay tuned for updates!