Monsoon's End-of-the-Week Snowstorm Forecast: go get your bread and milk!
Tonight there is the chance of some leftover light snow showers as the system that gave us sleet last night and rain today moves away. I don’t see any accumulation or travel hazards for Berks or Lancaster.
The next storm is a coastal low that looks good to develop into a full-fledged Nor’easter. Light snow moves in late Wednesday night (i.e., after midnight) and intensifies by mid-morning Thursday, continuing into Thursday evening. Snow continues intermittently (and of varying intensity) through Friday morning. This will be a snow event; I do not believe the forecast area will see any mixing.
Complicating matters (and making conditions more dangerous) will be strong winds—potentially the most violent of the season. Look for sustained winds of 20-30mph and gusts well over 40mph, getting cranked up throughout the day on Thursday and continuing through Friday. Combined with a heavy, wet snowfall, we could see widespread drifting, downed power lines, and fallen tree limbs.
Forecasting amounts with this one is especially tricky, and models have been in quite a bit of disagreement about just what kind of track this goofy storm will take. (I call it goofy because it’s going to come up the east coast, head northeast out to sea where it’ll pick up all kinds of additional moisture, and then—because of strong Atlantic oscillation—make a west-southwesterly turn, running smack pow into us.)
I reserve the right to alter my predictions tomorrow and new data comes in, but for now I’m going to call 8-12 inches for Berks and northern Lancaster Counties. This could be a big, nasty storm that gets into the foot-plus territory we saw back at the beginning of the month, but I’m not ready to say that for sure yet. This is also the sort of storm that will have heavy “bands” of precipitation in some areas, but lesser amounts in others; for example, Shillington could get 14 inches while Robesonia only gets 6 inches and Morgantown gets two feet.
Potentials for school scheduling snafus…
Thursday delay, 20%
Thursday cancellation, 75%
Thursday early dismissal (if we have school), 90%
Friday delay, 85%
Friday cancellation, 60%
Stay tuned for updated information, including snow totals and school scheduling potentials!