Das Geheimnis des fliegenden Fisch...
...or, the Mystery of the Flying Fish. Allow me to explain.
On Wednesday evening, I parked my car on the street across from my home. On Thursday morning, I returned to this vehicle to find a dead fish lying next to it. I called Mrs. Monsoon over to take a look, but neither of us could make sense of it. Then I noticed that the dead fish had evidently been flung (with more than a little bit of force) against the driver's side door/window/side mirror of my car, leaving a telltale slick of fish guts and scales but no damage. I have illustrated the incident for you below with two pictures taken at the scene and time of the fishy discovery.
The creature in question. It is a perch, according to friends, and it is delicious when prepared with a little bit of butter and lemon. This one, not so appetizing.
The aforementioned fish guts and scales. Difficult to see, but I promise they're there.
I made my way to school and began to speculate (with the help of my trusty colleagues) what this could mean, if anything. A Google search revealed that a dead fish left on one's doorstep is a warning that he or she is going to be killed (i.e., will soon be "sleeping with the fishes" in organized crime parlance).
[In response to this revelation, a very wise acquaintance of mine wondered aloud, "If a fish means you'll be sleeping with the fishes, what does a horse head in your bed mean, that you'll be sleeping with the horses? What would that even mean?" What, indeed.]
Today, my good people, there was another fish--not in the same place, and this one had not been flung at my car. But it was a fresh fish on the other side of the street (more or less in front of our house) nonetheless. There was also a dead baby animal, possibly a squirrel, not far away.
I have just one question, and perhaps you fine readers can help me out with an answer:
Several theories have emerged to explain this piscine perplexity--some plausible, some delightfully implausible, some so crazy they just might work. Here is a mishmosh...
- This is a tragic case of the rare but heartbreaking phenomenon of serial ichthycide: catching (or even purchasing) live fish, only to end their lives by flinging them against an immovable object at high speed.
- Fish suicide. Too sad to even elaborate.
- The random acts of local hooligans. Young tom-fools, well lubricated with liquor and laden with a bucketful of fresh-caught fish from Muddy Creek, decided to drive down our street in the wee hours and fling the fish at cars. Makes cow-tipping look like a night at the opera.
- I am being targeted by someone I have rankled: a mouthbreathing tea party type, a disgruntled student, an unabashed white person. The theory is that these fishy incidents will chasten me to stop whatever behavior is causing the objection (in the list above: thinking, grading, and listening to hip hop).
- I am being targeted because I am a teacher, and according to many right-wingers, teachers and their unions are the root of all the social and economic evils now faced by our society.
- I am being targeted by broken-nose types for reasons I cannot fathom.
- I am being targeted by any number of organizations, for any number of reasons that I will not enumerate here: the Victor Emmanuel Society, the Knights of Columbus, the Boy Scouts of America...
- A hawk with missing talons has caught the fish in the creek, but then dropped them due to its disfigurement. This would explain both fishes and the baby rodent, mind you, and I thank Wendi for her demented genius.
- The nine-year-old girl in the pink jacket who lives nearby is actually a child prodigy who has built a fully functioning catapult out of twigs and acorns; she has been testing it out using creatures killed by her pet cat and left in their yard.
Well, that's it. Vote for your favorite, or provide another idea. The best ones will be included in my next post. I've gotta move on: bigger fish to fry. (Sorry. I showed admirable fish-idiom restraint throughout that story, I think.)
Friday night, rain tapering to scattered drizzle by the evening. Low 38.
Saturday, foggy to start, and then mostly cloudy; slight chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon. Breezy. High 58, low 44.
Sunday, cloudy and rainy, mainly in the afternoon. High 64, low 53.
Monday, partly cloudy with warm southwest breezes. Look for strong thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening. High 79, low 56.
Tuesday, very windy and markedly cooler with the chance of a lingering shower or thunderstorm in the morning. High 61, low 36.
Wednesday, sunny, breezy and pleasant. High 63, low 40.
Thursday, partly cloudy and warmer. High 69, low 46.
Friday, cloudy with rain possible. High 65, low 54.
Next weekend (the 16th and 17th), rainy and warmer with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
DONNERGRAUPELN!
...that's German for 'thundersleet,' which is what is pummeling my home right now. Bunk is plastered to my side and I am coining new German words. It is truly meteorological madness.
What to expect for the rest of the evening? Periods of rain, some heavy, with sleet mixed in. Another round of nasty storms (and perhaps more thunder and lightning) will move through around 9 or 10. The precipitation could end overnight as snow, leaving a coating to an inch on cars and grassy areas.
Chance of delay Thursday: 20%; chance of cancellation Thursday, 5%.
Aside from a few early-morning rain or snow showers, Thursday will turn out windy and cool with some afternoon clearing possible. The high only gets up to 40; the overnight low will be 24.
Friday will be sunny, breezy, clear and cold, with increasing clouds late. High 38, low 26.
The weekend looks overcast and cool, with highs in the low 40s and lows in the upper 20s. I'm keeping an eye on a weekend system, but right now that looks like it will give us, at most, a few snow or rain showers on Saturday morning and afternoon. No big whoop. (Unless things change, so stay tuned.)
Next week, we'll see moderating temperatures (highs in the low 50s by Wednesday; upper 40s prior to that) but Tuesday and Wednesday hold the chance for rain.
Next weekend (April 2nd and 3rd) looks like a chilly fricking washout: temperatures in the 50s much of the time with plenty of rainfall.
Will Wednesday be snowy or rainy or slushy or sleety?
Yes, it will.
Rumors have been swirling of 6-10 inches or more of snowfall tomorrow. For most of us, I just don't think that will happen. Let me get right into the forecast, which I've been struggling with for a couple of days now...
For those of us in the forecast area (central and southern Berks, northern Lancaster Counties), we'll see snow begin overnight, mixing with rain by late morning. We will likely see several different types of precipitation (snow, sleet, rain) throughout the afternoon and evening before tapering off to flurries and snow showers overnight into Thursday. I believe rain will be the predominant precipitation type most of us will see. Temperatures will hold steady in the mid-30s for the entire day.
Accumulations: An inch or two of snow and sleet accumulation on grassy and untreated surfaces. Extreme northern Berks, Lehigh, and Schuylkill Counties (as well as NE PA, North Jersey, and the Poconos) could see as much as six inches.
Travel problems: Before sunrise tomorrow morning, as well as tomorrow evening, roads could be slick and a bit treacherous. But while the sun is out, most roads will be merely wet.
School scheduling disruptions: Delay 35%; cancellation 15%.
Stay tuned for updates...
Monsoon's Update: cooler weather, mixed precipitation this week?
The temperature got up to 80 in lots of places Friday, but this is still March. Tomorrow may be the first day of spring, but this week (particularly the 2nd half of it) is going to be more evocative of winter...
We'll see a mostly sunny (but less windy) Sunday with a high of 52 and a low of 33.
Rain will begin overnight Sunday into Monday, and it's possible some sleet will mix in during the wee hours (3am-ish), particularly in northern Berks and the Lehigh Valley. No travel issues, no delays, no problem here. Expect rain, mainly in the morning, tapering to scattered showers for the afternoon. High 52, low 41.
Tuesday will feature variable cloudiness and breezy conditions with high of 54 and a low of 30.
More precipitation arrives late Tuesday night (after midnight) into Wednesday morning. The surface temperature may be low enough that snow will mix in early. This wet snow will change quickly to all rain and, once again, will not affect travel or school schedules. High 44, low 35.
Overcast Thursday with perhaps a few showers leftover (and mixed precipitation may be present on Thursday morning; I'll keep my eye on this developing situation). High 46, low 29.
Friday looks partly cloudy, cool and windy. High 42, low 26.
Next weekend looks like another gorgeous one at this point: highs near 50 and plenty of sunshine.
The last few days of March will be milder with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s but (in a preview of the proverbial April showers) rather rainy.
Stay tuned for updates on the potential winter weather this week, but as of now I see no cause for alarm...
Monsoon's NYT letter; Boehringer's rave; weather update
My good blog-readers...
I am pleased to announce that your old pal Monsoon has written a letter to the editor of the New York Times, and it has been accepted for publication in the 13 March edition of the Sunday Magazine. You can check this link and scroll toward the bottom; my entry is headlined "Dislike Button."
My letter was edited for space due to the new format of the Letters page, so here (for you Monsoon completists out there) is the unexpurgated version:
Editor:
I have long enjoyed the Sunday Magazine as the must-read component your increasingly expensive publication. However, the February 27th issue was, for me, a barrage of bad news. I understand that Mr. Lindgren, the Magazine's new editor, felt he had to take steps to remake the glossy in his image, eliminating those columns or features he deemed outdated or redundant. When I read of Deborah Solomon's firing from the Magazine's interview segment, I felt it made sense to rid the magazine of her combative, repetitive, and sometimes misleading pieces.
But the tale that unfolded in the February 27th issue was one of wholesale attrition. First, I read that this column would be Randy Cohen's last as the Ethicist, later learning in an online article that he had already been replaced. Mr. Cohen's elegant, understated responses to ethical quandaries were the first words I read in each edition of the Magazine, and I am already wondering how Sundays will be the same without his work.
Next, I read that this would be the final column for Virginia Heffernan and "The Medium." As the internet becomes an ever more integral part of our lives--my wife and I often ask one another as we look up a recipe or bit of trivia, "What did we do before the internet?"--it would seem that such a column would be indispensible.
Finally, and perhaps most troubling for a high school English teacher and lover of language, was Ben Zimmer's announcement that this would be the final "On Language" column. Mr. Zimmer performed admirably in the unenviable task of replacing the late William Safire in writing this feature. In this time of rapid changes in the development of language--the redefinition of what is acceptable, the spectrum of global influences, and so on--makes a column like this essential.
Mr. Lindgren's apparent policy of taking a scythe to the Magazine in an effort to improve it and make it more relevant seems to me shortsighted and impetuous. It's a classic case of throwing out the baby with the bathwater, and neglects to consider the deeply held loyalties and preferences of your readership.
As you can see, the editors chopped my references to Hugo Lindgren, the Magazine's new editor, while tightening up some of my more longwinded tangents.
It's almost spring, and the March 11th opening of Boehringer's, Route 272 in Adamstown, is a most welcome sign of that season's approach.
A note about the pronuncation of this throwback drive-in's name: we have been calling it "BOAR-in-jerz" (rhymes with "Four in Purrs") since have been frequenting the joint; most locals say "BERR-ing-ers" (rhymes with "Herr Ringers"); I have even heard it pronounced "BOW-ringers" (rhymes with "Foe Flingers") and "BAY-rin-jerz" (rhymes with "Day Fin Curs").
The German pharmaceutical company Boehringer Ingelheim provides some guidance here: the "oe" construction is an Anglification of the "ö" (o umlaut) in German. The "ö" is difficult for the typical English-speaking mouth to pronounce, but the proper pronunciation is something close to "BAY-rin-gers" (rhymes with Jay Fingers) or "BOH-ring-ers" (rhymes with "Foe Thing Burrs"). Given the tendency of most Pennsylvanians in this region (of German or Penna. Dutch descent) to swallow the "g" in their pronunciations, I'd say either the locals' version ("BERR-ingers") or the second German version ("BOH-ring-ers") is closest. Can anyone shed some light here? Is anyone still reading this?
Well whatever you call the joint, it's fantastic. Boehringer's is celebrating its 75th anniversary this year, and has just created a Facebook presence so you can "Like" them, keep up with goings-on, and generally rave about the place.
Mrs. Monsoon and I went there today for the first time this season. Saw some of my students there (two former, one current) and exchanged pleasantries while waiting for our order. Had my first cheesesteak there (plain, of course). I wasn't expecting Pudge's (the best cheesesteaks in the history of the world; they're in Blue Bell. But I had heard they were good, so I gave it a shot.
My good people, it was damn good. Far better than a cheesesteak from a roadside drive-in has any business being. The roll was good, the cheese was intermingled nicely with the chopped beef, and the overall feeling I departed with was one of pure gustatory pleasure. (Of course, the perfect fries and ice cream cone chaser didn't hurt, either.)
Etiquette is key at Boehringer's: order up at the counter, then step back to wait for your food. The holding open of doors is particularly helpful. Pay with cash only--credit cards and checks are not accepted. Some jackwagon trying to pay for his hot dog, fries, and vanilla milkshake with a platinum card can really gum up the works. Boehringer's is a well-oiled machine, Tucker. Get with the program.
You can't really go wrong at Boehringer's--hot dogs, burgers, steaks, fries, and homemade ice cream. And milkshakes! Oh, the milkshakes. You have to find just the right green-shirted employee, but I have had a few chocolate-peanut butter milkshakes there that made me forget my name.
The ambiance is nice, too. Not inside the place--though there is a sort of controlled chaos that I find strangely calming. I'm talking about the creekside picnic tables where you can enjoy your food and watch the ducks pad about. It's like a little park: dogs, fowl, trees, rocks. It's usually quite comfortable and breezy there, even on a really hot and humid day. Sometimes the ants can be a little vexing and the bees a little threatening and the ducks a little aggressive, but what do you want? You're outside and it's lovely. Eat your butter brickle and stop your frickin' complaining.
It's open Tuesday through Sunday, 11am to about 9pm.
I'd love to hear your favorite Boehringer's memories, stories, foods, etc. Email me!
Now on to the weather...
Today was nice - a bit brisk, but plenty sunny. Sitting outside at Boehringer's got a little chilly as highs only reached into the mid 50s.
Sunday will be nice, but a little cooler: mostly sunny and rather windy with highs in the lower 50s (but this high will feel like the lower 40s due to the whipping winds). Low just below freezing Sunday night.
Monday will feature more clouds than sun and highs in the upper 40s. Just light breezes on this day. Overnight lows in the upper 20s.
Tuesday will begin with plenty of sunshine, but clouds will build in late. Expect milder southeasterly breezes to make the mid-50s high feel even a bit warmer.
Wednesday looks rainy and mild with temperatures in the mid 50s for much of the day. We'll see showers and drizzle rather than the soaking downpours of last week.
Thursday and Friday will be sunny and milder still--Thursday's high will be in the upper 50s, Friday's in the low 60s. Maybe an overnight shower Friday into Saturday, but nothing too bad.
Saturday and Sunday look nice: highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Next week looks rainy and cooler. But it will officially be spring! So there's that...
Monsoon's Forecast: watch for flooding Thursday...
First of all: no snow, no sleet, no freezing rain. A different kind of threat looms for the upcoming couple of days - flooding.
Wednesday will be breezy and somewhat cloudy, and increasingly so throughout the day. Look for some drizzle to begin by 5 or 6pm with steadier rain developing after 9 or so. High 49, low 38.
Thursday will be a washout. It's going to rain right through Wednesday overnight into Thursday, and on into the wee hours of Friday morning. The heaviest rain (and greatest chance for flooding) will fall anytime between noon and 8pm Thursday. Highs in the low 50s late Thursday; lows in the low 40s. Expect around 3 inches of rain with this system.
(To give you an idea of how much rain that is: the normal rainfall for the entire month of March is about 3 1/2 inches. And: if this same system hit us about a month ago, when the temperatures were roughly 20 degrees cooler, we'd be looking at two feet of snow, perhaps more.)
On Friday the clouds will linger and a few morning (or even early afternoon) showers could linger too. The winds will kick up, and temperatures will continue to be mild (highs in the low 50s).
Saturday looks just lovely: sunny and breezy with highs reaching into the mid 50s, with lows in the mid 30s at night.
Sunday will be partly sunny and breezy - just a bit cooler with highs reaching into the seasonable upper 40s. Overnight lows right around freezing.
Next week is a mixed bag: look for more of the same (clouds and sun, highs in the upper 40s) for Monday and Tuesday; a bit of rain possible Wednesday and Thursday as temperatures soar well into the 50s and approach 60; clearing and cooler Friday and Saturday with highs again only in the mid to upper 40s.
Update: Monday night - Tuesday morning snowfall
The snow that fell overnight left a coating to an inch in most of the forecast area, but slammed areas much farther north (Scranton, the Poconos, and north Jersey) with more than six inches.
Tonight, however, it looks as though we stand to get some accumulation. The details...
Monday afternoon and early evening will feature scattered rain showers with perhaps a bit of sleet mixed in. This will pose no serious problems.
Check out that huge swath of moisture currently moving through Indiana and Illinois. That's what figures to give us steady snowfall between about 9pm Monday night and 5am Tuesday morning...Expect accumulating snow to develop by 7 or 8pm tonight. The temperature will be falling through the 20s throughout the overnight hours, so all precipitation will be snow. Snow tapers by 5 or 6am and ends altogether by about 8am.
Accumulations are going to vary widely, and potentially present quite a reversal from the normal snowfall scenario.
Philadelphia and the southeastern counties (Delaware, Lancaster, York, Chester) will receive 3-5 inches.
Berks, Bucks, Montgomery, and much of south Jersey will receive 2-4 inches.
(I believe that Berks County in particular will be in the edge of the heavier snow bands; areas in Northern Berks may get only a couple of inches, while southern Berks gets 4 or 5.)
Mercifully, the areas that got bludgeoned last night and this morning (mentioned at the very top of this entry) will see just snow showers and flurries from this system.
School scheduling disruption percentages are for Berks and northern Lancaster Counties only.
Probability of at least a delay on Tuesday, 75%
Probability of cancellation Tuesday, 55%
Stay tuned for updates and tweakage as more information comes in to the ... what should I call it? Send your suggestions about what I should call my weather command center to me by clicking on my sign-off below...
Monsoon's Weather Update: two potentially wintry systems this week...
Sunday 2/20 will start off sunny with an afternoon high in the upper 30s, but clouds will build in ahead of a system that could bring us a return to winter weather. (Those of you who were dangling your bare arms blithely out your open car windows Friday, basking in the unseasonable 70-plus-degree warmth and insisting the winter was over...what say you now, Fussy Britches? I'm guessing you may have been ruing those cavalier words as you fought your way through 30+ mph winds--with gusts into the 50s--yesterday morning and afternoon...)
Anywho, expect light rain to begin by 8 or 9pm Sunday and quickly change over to snow, which will continue off and on overnight and accumulate a coating to an inch at most, primarily on cars and grassy areas. Changing back over to rain by the morning rush (7 or 8am) as surface temperatures rise above freezing. Some icy and slippery conditions are possible overnight and into the morning rush, as I've indicated in the percentages below, but by 9 or 10am Monday the roads will be slushy or just wet.
Probability of delay Monday, 25%
Probability of cancellation Monday, 10%
So. On Monday 2/21, rain tapers to showers and afternoon temperatures will rise to a noticeably milder 45 degrees. Then a second system comes in, starting as light rain in the evening, but quickly changing to snow by around 10pm as temperatures fall precipitously. There is not a whole lot of moisture associated with this system, so expect just a coating to a half-inch of accumulation, again mainly on cars and grassy surfaces. The temperature will stay in the mid-20s (with wind chills in the low teens) through the morning rush, though, so the potential for hazardous driving through this period is a bit elevated.
Probability of delay Tuesday, 35%
Probability of cancellation Tuesday, 15%
Tuesday 2/22 will be breezy and colder, with highs only reaching into the upper 20s and wind chills spending most of the day in the teens.
Wednesday 2/23 and Thursday 2/24 look to be partly cloudy and steadily warmer; Wednesday's high will be in the mid 30s, while Thursday's will be in the mid 40s.
Friday 2/25 looks rainy. Just rain for now as temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s for much of the day.
Next weekend looks mostly cloudy and a bit windy with highs in the low 40s. A large system packed with a lot of moisture looms for the Sunday 2/27 through Tuesday 3/1 period, but as of now, precipitation type and track are unclear. My best guess is that this is a "miss," but stay tuned. Early March is typically full of wild vicissitudes (particularly in a La Nina winter) and unplesant wintry surprises...
Monsoon's Forecast: Winter isn't finished with us yet...
Temperatures on Friday will reach the mid to upper 60s, challenging record highs in some places. So we’re finished with sub-freezing temperatures, winter weather, and school scheduling disruptions, right?
LOL, my hopeful friends. Your optimism truly has me ROFL.
Anywho.
The answers are no, probably not, and possibly not. I mean, the angle of the sun is changing every day, becoming more direct; and a good deal of the snowpack has melted. But still, those are my answers.
Here are the details:
Friday 2/18: partly cloudy and breezy with strong winds developing Friday evening and overnight. Afternoon high of 66; there is the slight chance of a passing shower in the afternoon. Clearing overnight and markedly colder with a low of 38.
Why do I have a picture of Charles "Boobie" Clark, famed Bethune-Cookman alum and 1970s Cincinnati Bengals running back, on this blog entry? Is his glowering, afroed presence somehow germane to my discussion of the weather? No, my good people. I have invited him here simply because it seemed like the thing to do. Enjoy.Saturday 2/19: partly to mostly cloudy and really damned windy. The afternoon high of 48 will actually feel more like 32 because of the winds. Winds diminish later; overnight low of 22.
Sunday 2/20: overcast with a chance of rain and drizzle, especially later in the afternoon and in the evening. High 44, low 32. Becoming rather breezy late.
Monday 2/21: cloudy and windy with a bit of rain likely. High 45, low 24. (But wind chills at night and overnight will be in the single digits.)
Tuesday 2/22: a lot depends of track and timing here, but we could get some snow overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Be sure to check back on Monday (or before, if new information comes to light) for updates, but as of now I’d say you should expect an inch or two of wet snow and minimal travel/school disruptions. I know, you’re all, like, ONNA, but I’m all, TWIS, so GOI.
Whatever the case, it’s going to be windy and colder on Tuesday. Look for overcast skies; high 36 (wind chills in the 20s), low 21 (wind chills in the teens).
Wednesday 2/23: sunny, nice, calmer wind. High 43, low 28.
Thursday 2/24: partly cloudy and cool, but seasonably so (average high for this time of year is 43 or 44 degrees). High 46, low 30. IMHO, this will be the last day for a while that will see below-freezing temperatures. JK! See Friday. And Sunday. And beyond.
Friday 2/25: clouds build in ahead of a system that will affect our area next weekend. Look for warm southeast winds that will usher in warmer air. High 44, low 29.
Next weekend: at this point, it looks like a hot mess. We’ll get up into the upper 50s on a rainy Saturday, then nosedive into the teens overnight into Sunday. People will be, like, OMG, it’s cold! And someone else will be, like, WDYM? It’s still winter! Look for highs barely above freezing on Sunday and Monday, the last two days of February.
Beyond: this system really has my attention. It’s looking like the first two days of March could signal a slam-bang, lead-blanket, charging-rhino type of winter weather event. (I don’t know precisely what I meant by all of those terms, but they sound good and alarming, do they not?)
TTYL,
I decided to provide a "key" for my chat/texting abbreviations... I will confess that while writing the post I had to look a few of these up to make sure I was using them properly...
LOL = laugh out loud
ROFL = rolling on the floor laughing
ONNA = oh no, not again
TWIS = that's what I said!
GOI = get over it
IMHO = in my humble opinion
JK = just kidding!
OMG = oh my gosh
WDYM = what do you mean?
TTYL = talk to you later...
Forecast for the two-week period following Monday, 14 February 2011
My good people,
I write to give you only good news about the weather, not to alert you to potential wintry weather headaches and scheduling snafus. Enjoy…
Monday 2/14: quite windy (especially in the evening) with periods of clouds and sun. High 49, but wind chills will be in the 30s. Look for falling temperatures late.
Tuesday 2/15: plenty of sunshine but breezy and colder. High 38, low 22.
Wednesday 2/16: partly sunny and milder. High 48, low 34.
Thursday 2/17: plenty of sunshine and milder still. High 56, low 38.
Friday 2/18: sun with some breaks of clouds and milder still, provoking such comments as, “Spring has sprung!” and “It’s a heatwave!” and “Hot damn – I can finally wear my tube top and Daisy Dukes to the mall!” High 63, low 39.
Next weekend (the 19th and 20th) will be a bit cooler – highs in the low 50s on Saturday (but windy conditions will make it feel cooler) and the low 40s on Sunday.
Next week starts off rainy and cool; some wet snow could mix in overnight into Tuesday as temperatures fall below freezing, but I see only slush (no travel or school disruptions) at this point. But Wednesday 2/23 – when the high looks like it will only just reach the freezing mark – is when we could have a return of some winter weather. Of course, I’ll keep an eye on that and let you know if it’s anything to be concerned about. Right now, I think the overall warming pattern will be too strong to allow this system to do any winter weather damage. Following this storm, we’ll see plenty of sunshine but lingering coldness – highs only in the low to mid 30s on Thursday and Friday.
The following weekend brings the chance of more precipitation, but it looks like things will be warm enough by then to render this wetness in liquid form only.
Stay tuned for updates!
Piddly, rainy dusting and a non-clusterjam
My good people,
I realize I am about to disappoint thousands of school children and hundreds of teachers in the forecast area, but I have to keep it real: this week will likely be the first in a while with no delays or cancellations due to winter weather.
The details...
Expect a high in the mid 40s today, which will feel positively balmy compared with the frigid conditions we've been enduring. A few rain showers develop this evening (after 6pm or so), becoming steadier overnight. This is not heavy rain. Overnight and into Tuesday morning, the rain could mix with a bit of wet snow, but accumulations will be an inch at most. The good news is that the roads will mostly be just wet, so slippery/hazardous driving conditions should not materialize.
Probability of delay Tuesday, 20%
Probability of cancellation Tuesday, 10%
Behind this system, we'll see windy and much colder weather. The low Tuesday night will get down into the lower teens.
On Wednesday and Thursday, we'll see partly sunny skies with highs at or just below 30 and lows around 12.
The Thursday clusterjam, which Fox 29 lounge lizard / smarm merchant / chief ballyhooer / meteorologist John Bolaris called the "Storm of the Century," now looks to be a miss. As in, not gonna happen. I'd get into the details of why, but I don't want to bore you to death.
Anywho, right around mid-month, it appears there will be a major shift in the pattern...so the worst of winter could be behind us.
How about that?
Stay tuned for updates...
Weekend event + next week Nor'easter?
A few systems to talk about...
First, this weekend... Light to moderate snow will arrive in the hours just after midnight tonight and continuing until late morning before changing over to rain for the bulk of the afternoon. Precipitation may briefly change back to snow in the early evening as the storm moves out. Total accumulations will be an inch or two at the most, and travel disruptions should be fairly minimal. Do use caution and common sense when driving or walking in any wintry precipitation, though.
Highs will be in the upper 30s to near 40 on Sunday and Monday before another potential winter weather-maker moves through. This one will be Monday night and Tuesday morning, but will just bring us snow and rain showers. And wind! Gales and gales of wind.
Then cold: highs in the mid to upper 20s for Wednesday with breezy conditions.
Thursday 2/10 is when some forecast model solutions are pointing to a mega-blizzard for the eastern seaboard. If all falls right, there will be plenty of cold air in place to create a historic whiteout snowdump clusterjam. But hey--we're almost a week away from that one, so let's hold off on the hand-wringing and knicker-knotting for now. My gut feeling at this point is that it's not going to be that impressive.
Beyond all that, we could be dealing with some icing problems on Monday 2/14 into Tuesday 2/15, but again--way too early to call at this point.
Stay tuned for updates!
Holy Mess: The Aftermath + what's next?
As I look out my window at still-covered limbs and power lines (as well as plenty of twigs and branches on the ground), I am thankful mine is not one of the thousands of households in the area that lost power. Aside from the outages, we're dealing with dense fog in some areas (particularly Delaware and South Jersey) due to the rapidity of temperature change.
The weather stations in the area are all above freezing as of now (12:30pm) - between 33 and 37 degrees, generally. Expect afternoon highs to approach 40 before beginning the plummet after 5pm or so, eventually reaching 20 degrees by the Thursday morning commute. We could see a rain or snow shower or two late this afternoon or evening, but nothing major.
Thursday will be mostly sunny and colder, with a high struggling to reach 30 and gusty daytime winds. Friday will also be sunny but less windy; high will be at 32 or so.
Probability of at least a delay Thursday, 75% (as I said, it's going to be around 20 in time for the morning commute, and some folks--not to mention schools--will still be dealing with power outages by tomorrow morning. And this afternoon's meltage could refreeze as well.)
Probability of cancellation Thursday, 55% (for the reasons listed above.)
Probability of at least a delay Friday, 60% (temperatures will be in the mid teens during the Friday morning commute, so things could be dicey again.)
Probability of cancellation Friday, 35% (for the reasons listed above. Plus, at this point, what's another snow day? Mifflin has now had five.)
The next system to affect our area will move in Friday night - snow showers will begin by 9 or 10pm and continue overnight, with the steadiest precipitation to fall late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. The system winds up with some snow showers approaching midnight Saturday. There will likely be some mixing (snow mixed with sleet or even freezing rain for a time), but the majority of this precipitation will be snow. I expect 3 to 5 inches of accumulation here.
I heard that stream of profanity, and it's not very couth, my friend. We're all frustrated by this brutal winter. But hey - Punxsutawney Phil didn't see his shadow this morning, so we're in for an early spring! Well no, I don't think it's anatomically possible for a groundhog to do that to himself.
There's the further possibility of snow and mixed precipitation on Monday 2/7 into Tuesday 2/8.
Alright, using those words is just uncalled for. Surely we can express ourselves more appropriately? We're two-thirds of the way through meteorological winter (December, January, February) and this is the shortest month of the year! No, I will not take a long walk off a short pier. That's just hateful.
And Saturday the 12th into Sunday the 13th could be ugly as well.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Honestly, I've never heard such filth in all my life. What the h-e-double-hockey sticks is going on here, guys? Alright, for those of you who feel you need profanity to express your rage, perhaps this clip will be cathartic:
Stay tuned for updates...
Holy Mess Update: Tuesday Afternoon
Warm air aloft changed the precipitation type to sleet sooner than expected, and the bulk of the precipitation stayed to our north, keeping snowfall accumulations down in the forecast area. However, even just a bit of ice can cause major havoc, and I think that's what wigged a lot of districts into cancelling classes today.
Anyway, looking forward...
The current lull in precipitation will crank back up around 6 or 7pm tonight, with the steadiest precipitation from 9pm through late Wednesday morning.
Current radar indicates a lull until this evening. The giant area of moisture currently giving a buttload of snow to Oklahoma, Missouri, and Illinois will make things nasty for us here overnight...
Precipitation type will be primarily dependent on when the temperature rises above freezing. We'll see sleet and freezing rain for the bulk of the precipitation, which will still cause the massive icing and hazardous conditions I talked about in my previous post.
I think we'll see temperatures above freezing from about 10am to 5pm Wednesday, so as the storm pulls away, the precipitation will change to rain and wash away a bit of the mess. On Wednesday evening as the temperature plummets to the low 20s and the winds kick up, we could see some dangerous refreezing and even a quick snow shower or two. So be careful driving Wednesday night.
Thursday looks to be frigid with a high below freezing and a low (overnight into Friday) approaching the single digits.
We could see some snow showers on Saturday, but as of now it doesn't look like anything to be worried about.
Next good chance for snow is Tuesday 2/8 into Wednesday 2/9, as well as Saturday 2/12 into Sunday 2/13...
School scheduling meter:
Probability of at least a delay Wednesday, 80%
Probability of cancellation Wednesday, 60%
Probability of at least a delay Thursday, 65%
Probability of cancellation Thursday, 35%
Probability of at least a delay Friday, 35%
Probability of cancellation Friday, 15%
Stay tuned for further in-storm updates!
Monsoon's Forecast: The Groundhog Day Holy Mess
This is a challenging forecast—again—because of the storm’s complexity. Timing (of precipitation arrivals and mixing) will be the key in terms of school scheduling. There is also the wildcard of warmer air aloft, which affects the precipitation type we will see.
But you didn’t come here for hogwash and horsefeathers, now did you? No, you came here for a definitive forecast. And a definitive forecast you shall damned well receive.
Reading/Berks: flurries and light snow showers arrive as early as 8 or 9pm this evening, becoming a steadier snow after midnight. The snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain by early Tuesday afternoon, becoming all ice by late afternoon. Snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches.
Snow arrives late Monday night into Tuesday morning.The temperature will rise only into the upper 20s through this period, so the precipitation that does fall—even if it is rain—will freeze to surfaces.
There will be a bit of a lull in the precipitation later Tuesday evening before the moisture cranks up, delivering us nearly an inch of freezing rain overnight into Wednesday morning. The temperature will finally climb above freezing by late Wednesday morning, so plain rain will fall then. However, expect hazardous driving conditions through the afternoon and evening as the rain will simply coat the thick ice and snow already packed on roadways.
Freezing rain Tuesday into Wednesday will create widespread icing before the precipitation changes to plain rain later Wednesday.Finally, on Wednesday evening, as arctic air floods the region, the precipitation will likely end as snow showers, with steadier bands producing perhaps an inch of additional accumulation. Oh, and it will be quite windy, too.
The aforementioned arctic air will drive temperatures down into the teens by Thursday morning, and highs will only reach the mid 20s on Thursday. Single-digit lows are possible on Thursday night into Friday.
My primary concern with this storm is icing. If we have a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain—and I think we will—we will see downed power lines, downed tree limbs, and travel difficulties, especially on back roads and untreated surfaces. In addition, the widespread icing will make for poor flying weather (e.g., ice-clad wings and runways), so expect a prolonged period of delayed and cancelled flights from Tuesday morning into Thursday morning. School scheduling percentages...
Probability of at least a delay Tuesday: 90%
Probability of cancellation Tuesday: 80%
Probability of at least a delay Wednesday: 80%
Probability of cancellation Wednesday: 70%
Probability of at least a delay Thursday: 65%
Probability of cancellation Thursday: 40%
Probability of at least a delay Friday: 45%
Probability of cancellation Friday: 25%
And now, by popular demand, here’s the outlook for some other places…
Pittsburgh: snow arrives by 6 or 7pm tonight, then continues overnight, accumulating an inch or two before changing over to freezing rain before dawn. Freezing rain changes over to plain rain by late morning Tuesday. Temperatures will rise well above freezing throughout the day, so this precipitation should not create icing. Rain may freeze on surfaces on Tuesday night, especially at higher elevations, so use caution. Rain will change back over to light snow on Wednesday afternoon and evening, accumulating only a coating to an inch.
Philadelphia, northern Delaware, and South Jersey: snow arrives after midnight and accumulates only a coating to an inch before changing to freezing rain and sleet by mid-morning Tuesday. This mess changes to all rain by late afternoon, so impact on the evening commute should be minimal. Freezing rain overnight and into Wednesday morning will likely compromise the AM commute, but will quickly change over to rain. There may be a few snow showers in the evening, but these will yield little to no accumulation.
Central and northern New Jersey, as well as NYC: snow arrives after midnight and accumulates 4-6 inches before changing to freezing rain and sleet by mid-afternoon Tuesday. There could be a half-inch or more accumulation of sleet and ice by Tuesday night. Icing will be a major problem on Tuesday and will likely cancel schools and make travel treacherous. Freezing rain continues overnight, but plain rain by late morning should wash away a lot of the “ick.” Expect snow showers by late afternoon into the evening, then clearing.
Of course, stay tuned for updates and tweakage on the forecast and throughout the storm…
On a final note, monsoonmartin.squarespace.com has had its best month ever in January, thanks to you guys – well over 5,000 hits. I know that a video of a bulldog humping a stuffed animal can get 5,000 hits in a few hours on YouTube, but still, this is a major milestone for me. So hey…thanks for tuning in, or dialing me up, or whatever. Big ups to the Weather Crew!!
Monsoon's update: Little Clipper II and next week's holy mess
Yesterday's Little Clipper I gave us about an inch on grassy surfaces and provided an unwelcome distraction throughout the school day; last night, however, those wet surfaces froze and caused some slippery spots, especially in parking lots and on sidewalks.
Today's Little Clipper II looks a bit juicy in spots - some moderate bands of precipitation should move through the Berks area between noon and 4pm or so. We could end up getting an inch or two out of this, and for a time it might snow steadily enough that it actually sticks on the roads. So use caution when driving.
See that area of darker blue over central PA right now? That's the bit that's juicier than what was originally forecast with Little Clipper II.
Behind these two Little Clippers, we'll have a seasonable Sunday (highs in the mid 30s) before once again contending with extreme cold (highs on Monday and Tuesday will only be in the mid to upper 20s).
And then there's the protracted, mixed holy mess.
The timing is tricky right now, but my best guess is that it's going to be around from Tuesday morning through Thursday morning.
Tuesday morning: light snow filters in ahead of the storm, resulting in little to no accumulation.
Tuesday evening: snow arrives, continuing overnight and into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday: snow will mix with and change to freezing rain and sleet before becoming all snow again by the evening rush.
Thursday morning: the precipitation tapers to snow showers; the sun may even peek out later in the day. Temperatures behind this storm will be significantly colder, with highs only in the mid 20s.
Next chances for frozen precipitation: Sunday 2/6 - Monday 2/7; and Friday 2/11 - Saturday 2/12. Yes, I am serious.
Potentials for school scheduling disruptions: I'm holding off on providing percentages just yet, but I think a cancellation Wednesday and a delay Thursday are the most plausible scenarios.
Stay tuned for updates!
Midweek storm: the aftermath and looking ahead...
First, the storm that dumped all kinds of snow on us, reminding us of the difference in weight between a shovelful of powder and a shovelful of wet snow. I received reports of thundersnow and lightning in Lindenwold, Newtown, Phoenixville and Center City Philadelphia; snowfall rates of nearly 2" per hour throughout southwest Jersey, Bucks and Montgomery Counties; and near-whiteout conditions in New Castle, the Philadelphia suburbs north and west, and Havertown.
Total accumulations ranged from 7-8 inches in western Berks to 11-12 inches in southwest Berks; 12-16 inches in Bucks, Montgomery, and Chester Counties, as well as in the Illadelph. Parts of central and southern New Jersey got more than a foot and a half due to banding (concentrated areas of heavy snowfall).
Anywho, we now need to turn our attention to three more winter storms that will impact our area to varying degrees. Let me break it down like it's Hammer Time.
Little Clipper, Friday. (pronounced "Leetle Cleeper" a la the criminally underrated Nacho Libre in the sign-off of Ignacio's letter to Sister Encarnación: "Hug hug, kees kees, hug hug, beeg kees, leetle hug, kees kess, leetle keesss.")
Look for intermittent light snow anytime from the Friday morning commute through late afternoon. Accumulations will be an inch at most and will generally have little to no impact on travel, but use caution just in case.
Probability of delay Friday, 20% (due to refreezing of melted snow from Wednesday's storm along with panicking resulting from the light snowfall)
Little Clipper, Saturday. Right now it looks like this system will be even more moisture-starved, so accumulations will be held down to the "coating to a half-inch" range. Again, look for flurries and light snow showers anytime between roughly 11am and 8pm.
The potential Nor'easter / mess on Tuesday into Wednesday, according to the CMC forecast model.Nor'easter, Tuesday-Wednesday. This storm bears a lot of similarities to the one that just walloped us. Of course, track and temperature are of utmost importance in determining what kind of event we'll have to contend with, but right now it's looking like all snow and a decent amount of it. We're five days from this event, though, so a lot can happen in that period.
Stay tuned for further updates!
Monsoon's update: the juicy back-end
By about 4pm we'll be seeing light to moderate snow again in the Lancaster-Reading area. I expect the heaviest snow to fall between about 6pm and 10pm. Snow will taper after midnight and move out of here before daybreak Thursday.
Total accumulations: I expect to see 10-14 inches (including this morning's surprise hit); more in isolated areas.
Possibility of at least a delay on Thursday, 95% (there's going to be a lot to clean up, and we'll need those extra hours)
Possibility of cancellation Thursday, 75% (my confidence is growing on this for several reasons: 1. the untreated surfaces and back roads will be a mess after the shit-ton of snow we get tonight; 2. the temperature will be in the mid 20s throughout the morning, so anything that falls overnight will still be frozen in the morning; 3. it's a heavy, wet snow, and that may pull down branches and power lines--and maybe even roofs--around the area; and 4. administrators likely got an earful from angry parents for holding school at all today, turning around buses carrying little kids, which then skidded around the slippery roads for hours; needless to say, I think they're likely to err on the side of caution tomorrow)
Well, that's it. Anything else interesting comes up, I'll let you know. And remember to email me with reports of snow totals, thunder, or anything else of note...
Monsoon's update - the lull...
Most area districts are closing early this morning, perhaps realizing that, given the snowfall, they might have been better served keeping everyone at home. Dismissal times are generally in the 11am - 12:30pm range.
This timing is particularly advantageous, as the snowfall lull is now upon us. From about 11am to 2 or 3pm, we'll have little or no snowfall to contend with. This should allow those with early dismissals to get home safely--and allow those stuck in school for a full day to get home safely as well.
The "back end" cranks up in the late afternoon and overnight. I am still thinking we're in for 8-10 inches tonight (on top of the 3-4 inches from this morning). Most of us should expect a foot of accumulation. Snow tapers after midnight.
Updated delay/cancellation percentages for Thursday coming soon...
Be sure to email me with snow totals and observations!
Monsoon's in-storm update
It's already snowing, and rather steadily, as of 7:30. (Actually, it was snowing by 4 or 5am, so it's not entirely clear why school is being held at all.)
There's a large area of moisture over us right now, but we'll get a break by late morning, when the precipitation tapers to scattered snow and rain showers. For a few hours in the afternoon, there will be little or no precipitation at all. This "first phase" of the storm will accumulate 2-3 inches.
The snow will crank back up as the beastly "back end" of the storm moves through late this afternoon and this evening, into the overnight hours. Look for accumulations of 6-8 inches from this portion of the storm, raising totals in some places to near a foot.
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 85%
Chance of delay Thursday, 90%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 75%
