Monsoon's thinking on the midweek storm - Sunday afternoon
This is a tough one.
Forecasters--at least in this age of technological advances and fancy equipment--are always told that the models are to be used as tools, not taken as gospel. ("Models" here refer to the alphabet soup of forecasting models, or computer-generated projections of what the weather will do days and sometimes even weeks ahead.) And yet a lot of forecasters seem to be taking model agreement on storm track, on the absence of adequate phasing, and on air temperature, as if they were writ by Mother Nature herself in her little daily planner.
Nay nay, say I.
This is the WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting) model, showing the bulk of the moisture heading offshore. As noted above, I have reason to believe that this solution will change...
The model composites suggest the following: the Nor'easter will follow an Eastern track, thus providing us here in the Berks forecast area only a glancing blow. Moreover, the dearth of moisture and the lack of cold air will mean that much of the precipitation that does fall will be in the form of rain.
Lots of time looms between now and the onset of the storm, so my thinking (and therefore, my forecast) is subject to change--maybe several times. But for now, today, this afternoon, this is what I think is going to happen:
A small clipper system will pass to our north on Monday night into Tuesday, sparing us any snowfall at all. Meanwhile, the Nor'easter will be forming off the Carolina coast. I think the track will shift slightly westward, but enough of the cold Canadian air will remain in the area that there will be little to no mixing. And it will be really windy.
The snow arrives Wednesday morning, becoming intense throughout the day and evening, and tapering to flurries overnight into Thursday. Expect accumulations in the 6-8 inch range, school cancellations on Wednesday, and delays on Thursday.
Did I mention that this forecast is subject to change? Because it is.
Stay tuned.