Nor'easter moves in; snow for some?
Brace yourselves for a lot of rain, which our area has been lacking of late. We could also see a number of problems in the area due to this storm. The specifics:
Rain and drizzle have already begun, but the heaviest will be this evening and overnight - maybe from 5pm to 3am. We could see a couple inches of rainfall, causing urban flooding. Windy and chilly, with highs only in the lower 50s and lows in the lower 40s. The storm is hugging the coast, so the most damaging winds will be confined to coastal cities.
In western Pennsylvania (Pittsburgh and north) along with western New York, look for heavy, wet snow that will accumulate 6-8 inches - perhaps as much as a foot in some areas. And--shades of October 29, 2011--that heavy, wet snow will cause leafy tree branches to snap and result in widespread power outages that could last for days.
Monday will be cloudy, breezy and cool with a few showers possible. High will be 51 and low will be 39, but this will feel like 45 and 25 due to the wind.
Tuesday will also be cloudy, breezy and cool. Some forecasters are suggesting that lingering showers Tuesday morning could fall as wet snow. I call bullshit. No snow. High 53, low 40.
Wednesday looks milder with only light wind and some actual sunny periods. High 62, low 47.
Thursday will be variably cloudy with a passing shower or two early. High 64, low 41.
Friday will usher in what is for me ideal weather. It will be mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. High 54, low 38 (with the wind, these will feel like 48 and 30). And this same type of action will continue on Saturday. Sunday will be a bit milder (high of 64) but still plenty of sunshine.
Next week--the one that ends April and begins May--will have a rainy, mild start. Look for clearing skies and highs approaching 80 by the end of the week (5/3 and 5/4).
Next weekend looks sunny and warm with highs in the low 80s.
The following week (5/7 through 5/11) is looking seasonably pleasant with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Happy Jenkins' Ear Day!
...and also Winston Churchill Day. April 9th. The latter commemorates the day Churchill was posthumously named an honorary American citizen; the former refers to a mid-18th century war between Britain and Spain that involved British mercantilist Robert Jenkins exhibiting his ear (which had been severed by a Spaniard) before Parliament. Seriously. Look it up.
And we're in the midst of National Grilled Cheese Sandwich Month, National Pecan Month, Cranberries and Gooseberries Month, Brussels Sprouts and Cabbage Month, Tomatillo and Asian Pear Month--and National IBS (Irritable Bowel Syndrome) month. Those celebrations are at cross purposes, it would seem.
It's also International Twit Award Month (send nominations to me via email) and National STDs (Sexually Transmitted Diseases) Month (send one to me at ... never mind.)
Anywho, the weather. It's been really dry and windy over the last few days, thanks to a high pressure system squeezed in over our area. We'll see rain and chilliness over the next week, followed by a return to warmth...
Monday 4/9: We've got another Red Flag Warning for today, as extremely low relative humidity levels coupled with high winds produce ideal conditions for wildfires. Winds could gust toward 50mph. High of 63. Tonight we'll see windy conditions persist (though the wind will diminish), a continued partly cloudy skies. Low of 35.
Tuesday 4/10: Happy National Farm Animals Day! Today will be mostly cloudy, breezy, and cooler with a high of 54. A couple of stray light showers are possible. Overnight low of 44.
Wednesday 4/11: It's National Pet Day! Again, we'll see mostly cloudy skies, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures. Scattered showers may again move through in some places, but it won't be a "washout." High 52, low 45.
Thursday 4/12: Celebrate DEAR (Drop Everything and Read) Day by walking in to a grocery store, loading up your arms full of celery and tomato soup and cat food, walking to the register, letting it all crash to the floor--then calmly take out a book, take a seat, and read. I mean, that's what I am going to do. You guys celebrate in your own ways. So the weather will be continued cool and breezy, but with more sunshine. And no rain. High 56, low 42.
Friday 4/13: It's Thomas Jefferson Day, so go out and father a child with your -- no, nope, that's inappropriate. Better yet, buy something for $2.05 and pay with a $2 bill and a nickel, both of which feature Jefferson's likeness. And the weather will be sunny and milder. High 62, low 41.
Saturday 4/14: Dictionary Day! To celebrate, go find an actual dictionary (not one on a computer or your smart phone, but an actual dictionary with pages you can flip through). Open to a random page. Close your eyes and pick a word. Use that word in conversation at least five times throughout the day. The weather will be partly sunny with a stray thunderstorm possible. Look for highs about 66 and lows in the upper 40s.
Sunday 4/15: In addition to being the traditional Income Tax Day, it's also National That Sucks Day, which seems to be an appropriate, if inelegantly stated, sentiment. Today will be warmish with a high of 69, and perhaps some a bit of a shower in the afternoon. Overnight low will be in the mid to upper 50s.
Next week: Be sure to mark the redundantly named National Haiku Poetry Day (April 17th), Husband Appreciation Day (April 20th), and, of course, Record Store Day (April 21st). Next week's weather looks unseasonably warm to start (highs in the 70s Monday through Wednesday), then after a little hiccup, we'll see even warmer temps for the end of the week. The following weekend (the 21st and 22nd) will see highs in the upper 70s with brilliant sunshine...
Near-Record Warmth, Mild Conditions Prevail
Dear Reader,
It's been a while since I've said hello, but it's been so damned nice that there's nothing to write about. Winter weather has been missing for weeks, but the actual seasons change in a couple of days. Conditions this time of year typically have highs in the low to mid 50s and lows in the low to mid 30s, with a bit more rain than usual. Meanwhile, we're going to see a continuation of mild and dry conditions for about the next week. Here are the details...
Monday 3/19: A foggy morning gives way to partly cloudy skies. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. High 76 (a few degrees shy of the record of 78 set in 1918). Low 53.
Tuesday 3/20: Mostly cloudy with a few isolated AM showers. High 71, low 56.
Wednesday 3/21: Mostly sunny and a bit breezy with a high of 75 and a low of 52.
Thursday 3/22: Partly to mostly sunny with highs about 81, approaching the record of 83 set in 1938. Low 53.
Friday 3/23: Clouds mixed with sunshine; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. High 79, low 50.
The weekend: Seasonably cooler and rather windy with showers likely on Saturday afternoon, then rain likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. Highs 69 on Saturday and 56 on Sunday.
Next week: We'll begin with a windy a cool Monday (high of 56), and we'll see highs in the mid to upper 50s to near 60 for much of the week. Look for rain on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
Next weekend: Warmer (highs in the upper 60s) and nice for the last day in March and the first day in April.
Leap Day storm update
Weather-friends,
It looks as though the system is going to arrive a bit later, which is going to make a significant difference in the forecast.
Snow mixed with sleet will begin sometime 7 and 9am tomorrow, but will quickly change to plain rain as temperatures climb into the upper 30s throughout the day. Rain will taper overnight, leaving just a chance of scattered showers on Thursday. Some places will see little or no frozen precipitation at all.
A slushy coating is the most I expect from this; locations north of Reading and in higher elevations may see an inch or two of accumulation before the changeover.
I'm revising the school disruption meter for Berks to...
30% chance of delay Wednesday
15% chance of cancellation Wednesday
Stay tuned for updates when and if they become necessary.
The next (and most likely, the season's last) chance for frozen precipitation is a hit-or-miss clipper on March 5th. Thereafter, we'll see highs creep into the 60s as spring approaches...
Leap Day storm?
Many people commented that Saturday morning's brief period of snow signalled the end of this (mostly) snowless winter. Maybe, maybe not.
A storm is developing for Wednesday that may bring some wintry weather to the forecast area.
I'm keeping a close eye on this one, as the temperatures at the surface and aloft will determine what kind of precipitation--and therefore, what kinds of delays and traffic issues--we'll get.
Right now it's looking like this:
Precipitation begins as snow around 5am Wednesday and begins to mix with and change to sleet by around 10am. The whole mess changes over to rain by early Wednesday afternoon. Rain tapers overnight into Thursday, and we could still see some drizzle or light rain showers throughout the day on Thursday.
Wednesday's high will only reach 35. Thursday's will be 40 with high winds making it feel much colder.
I expect the total accumulation of snow and sleet from this system to be an inch or two at most.
Right now I'm setting the school disruption meter for Berks at...
65% chance of delay Wednesday
30% chance of cancellation Wednesday
Friday looks partly cloudy and milder with highs in the upper 40s. Saturday looks windy with the chance for showers and a high in the mid 50s. Sunday looks partly sunny, windy and cooler with a high in the mid 40s.
On Monday 3/5 we could begin the day with some ice, so I'll keep an eye on that, too.
Stay tuned for updates as this event comes into better focus...
Wintry weather potential for the remainder of February
Is winter over? That's the question burning up the internets where meterologists (legit and otherwise) gather. It's a difficult question to answer, and a dangerous one, too. Trends point toward increasingly milder weather, and the sun angle makes accumulating snow less likely with each passing day. But we had a snowstorm in October, for frick's sake. If this winter has been anything, it's unpredictable.
The latest buzz centers on the potential for a Nor'easter on Sunday into Monday. Some forecasting models are pointing toward a blizzard with more than 18 inches of snow; others show a complete miss for our area. So what's going to happen? Here's my take on the final two weeks of February...
After an evening of scattered showers and drizzle on Tuesday night, we'll see gradual clearing on Wednesday 2/15 with a high in the low 50s. We'll see light precipitation develop overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, and then steadier precipitation will set in for the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will still be around freezing early Thursday morning, so we could see some icy spots develop. But the bulk of the precipitation will fall as plain rain, as Thursday afternoon temperatures will reach into the mid 40s.
Chance of Thursday school cancellation, 15%
Chance of Thursday school delay, 25%
Friday and Saturday will be partly sunny and breezy, with highs of 48 both days. Overnight lows will reach 30 each night.
[My favorite author, Toni Morrison, was born on February 18th. On this Valentine's Day, when we reflect on those we hold dearest, I'd like to sound my yawp of love to Mrs. Monsoon. In Beloved, Morrison wrote: “She is a friend of my mind. She gather me, man. The pieces I am, she gather them and give them back to me in all the right order.” Thanks for gathering me, and getting me, and being you.]
Sunday will be partly cloudy and chillier with a high of only 42. I think the buzzed-about storm will miss us, so no precipitation to worry about. Monday 2/20 looks brilliantly sunny with a high remaining in the lower 40s. More of the same for Tuesday.
We'll likely see some rain on Wednesday 2/22 and Thursday 2/23, but it will be plain old rain. No wintry weather excitement here.
The final handful of days in February will be milder on the whole, with highs reaching into the 40s and 50s.
Stay tuned...
Saturday snow?
Today, the temperature will reach into the upper 40s, perhaps the low 50s, with mostly sunny skies. It will cloud up later, and a bit of rain will begin by 8pm or so. The rain will mix with, then change to, snow overnight (around midnight).
As you can see from these panels, we’ll only dip below freezing as the precipitation is nearly gone. The snow will change back over to rain by mid-Saturday morning, then taper by noon. We could see scattered light snow showers on Saturday evening as well. The high temperature on Saturday will only get to about 38. Total accumulations will be just about an inch or so.
On Saturday evening, temperatures will begin to fall through the 20s and reach the teens overnight, with some wind.
Sunday morning could be a bit slippery, as afternoon highs will only reach 30 or so.
Travel will be the most treacherous late Saturday night into Sunday morning, particularly on secondary roads. Otherwise, expect just wet roads.
Monday and Tuesday will not be a cold; highs will reach near 40. Milder still on Wednesday and Thursday, which will be mostly cloudy with highs near 50.
The next threat of wintry weather is a bit of mixed precipitation Friday night 2/17 into Saturday 2/18. Otherwise, the trend is toward milder weather, and nothing much is on the horizon…
Monsoon's analysis of Wednesday's upcoming winter weather...
Monday night we’ll see temperatures drop into the upper 20s. On Tuesday, we’ll see similar conditions to today: high of 51, low of 29.
On Wednesday, a light snow event is likely. Expect light snow to begin falling by 8am, then continue intermittently—falling moderately but never heavily—through the morning. By late morning, the snow will mix with (then change to) rain, and by late afternoon some snow may mix in again. All will taper by 6 or 7pm. Temperatures will rise from freezing around 8am to the upper 30s in the afternoon.
The adorable little stormy-storm that's heading our way Wednesday. Note in the left panel that we're north of the rain-snow line (pink) as the storm begins.
Impacts from this storm will be minimal. Snow will mainly stick on grassy surfaces, and roadways will just be wet. There’s no a whole lot of moisture with this system, so any accumulations will be negligible.
Potential for cancellation Wednesday, 15%
Potential for early dismissal Wednesday, 30%
Potential for delayed start Thursday, 25%
Thursday will be continued seasonably cool; conditions will be breezy with a mixture of clouds and sun and a high in the mid 40s.
Friday will be much the same.
Saturday will be overcast, but nothing will materialize from this ominous cloud cover. We’ll also see colder temperatures, with a high in the low to mid 30s. Wind will make it feel below freezing.
Sunday will be sunny and windy, but continued cold. High only in the mid 30s.
There’s the potential for ice and freezing rain from Monday 2/13 into Tuesday 2/14, so stay tuned on that one.
Thereafter, we’ll see milder temperatures (highs in the 50s) and any wet weather we get will be plain rain…
Uh ... never mind ...
The Sunday-Monday storm is going to miss us. I was really looking forward to a three-day weekend (and so were many of you, desperately, to judge from your pleading inquiries), but alas, 'tis not to be.
It's going to slide south of us, and the most anyone in the vicinity will see from this storm is a trace amount of snow in extreme south Jersey and around the DelMar/Pennsylvania state line.
So. Here's what I think we'll see over the next three weeks (roughly the 3rd through the 17th)...
Sunny and chilly with highs in mid to upper 40s on Friday and Saturday. Lows in the upper 20s.
Partly sunny, chilly and a bit windy with highs in the mid to upper 40s on Sunday and Monday. Lows in the upper 20s.
Partly to mostly sunny and quite windy with highs in the mid 40s, from Tuesday right through Thursday.
It gets colder on Friday 2/10: high in the upper 30s and rather windy.
I see dry conditions prevailing throughout the entire eight-day period outlined above.
On Saturday 2/11 we'll see a high only around freezing, and some ice/freezing rain is possible at night. Sunday could also bring a little frozen precipitation, but that's nothing major.
The next really interesting span (in terms of winter weather) is Tuesday 2/14 through Thursday 2/16. Big storm possible right around then.
Stay tuned! ...... *sigh*
Santorum - That's Latin for...
My friends,
Permit me a brief political digression in this snow-starved winter season. My elemental, to-my-core, stone-cold, visceral loathing of former senator and current Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum came flooding back to me when I saw this picture:
Stephen Crowley of The New York Times snapped it as the candidate spoke at a black church in Florida about a week ago. It eloquently captures its moment: the crushing ennui of the berobed African American choirmembers, the blithering bloviation inherent in each of Santorum's speeches, the miserable failure of a staged photo opportunity--the churchgoers flanking the candidate, separated by race but united by their shared hatred of the devil, the unlikely supporters urging him on to speak the truth. It is a frozen moment into which perhaps too much meaning can be read, but it is also one from which a deeply satisfying amusement can be derived.
In case you haven't been following along, Santorum scared the ever-loving shit out of reasonable people all over this land when he won the Iowa caucus, suggesting that he might actually have a chance to win the Republican nomination (and thereafter--*shudder*--the presidency). He has faded in the primaries since, but his viability as a vice-presidential candidate remains strong.
Former Democratic senator Bob Kerrey of Nebraska pegged Santorum best early in Rick's career. He said, "Santorum - that's Latin for 'asshole.'"
If you're still unconvinced that Bob Kerrey was right - and you haven't been following with glee Dan Savage's nearly decade-long public vendetta against Santorum - here are some words directly from his own mouth:
“If the Supreme Court says that you have the right to consensual [gay] sex within your home, then you have the right to bigamy, you have the right to polygamy, you have the right to incest, you have the right to adultery. You have the right to anything. Does that undermine the fabric of our society? I would argue yes, it does. It all comes from, I would argue, this right to privacy that doesn’t exist in my opinion in the United States Constitution. In every society, the definition of marriage has not ever to my knowledge included homosexuality. That’s not to pick on homosexuality. It’s not, you know, man on child, man on dog, or whatever the case may be. It is one thing.”- “One of the things I will talk about, that no president has talked about before, is I think the dangers of contraception in this country. It’s not okay. It’s a license to do things in a sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be. [Sex] is supposed to be within marriage. It’s supposed to be for purposes that are yes, conjugal…but also procreative. That’s the perfect way that a sexual union should happen…This is special and it needs to be seen as special.”
- “Let’s look at what’s going to be taught in our schools because now we have same sex couples being the same and their sexual activity being seen as equal and being affirmed by society as heterosexual couples and their activity. So what is going to be taught to our people in health class in our schools? What is going to be taught to our children about who in our stories, even to little children — what are married couples? What families look like in America? So, you are going to have in our curriculum spread throughout our curriculum worldview that is fundamentally different than what is taught in schools today? Is that not a consequence of gay marriage?”
“I don’t want to make black people's live better by giving them other people’s money. I want to give them the opportunity to go out and earn their money and provide for themselves and their families. The best way to do that is to get the manufacturing sector of the economy rolling.”- “The American Left hates Christendom. They hate Western civilization.”
- “It’s amazing that so many kids turn out to be fairly normal, considering the weird socialization they get in public schools.”
- “All the people that live in the West Bank are Israelis. They are not Palestinians. There is no Palestinian. This is Israeli land.”
So: he's a virulent homophobe, a supporter of abstinence-only education, a homeschooling zealot who would love nothing more than to dismantle the public education system, a bloody racist, an unapologetic booster of Israeli Zionism, and a pro-business capitalist who favors privatization and eschews regulation.
In short: he's a nightmare for anyone with a brain or a heart.
Is 't possible?
First of all, prepare yourselves for the brief "January thaw," which will actually straddle two months. Today's high will be 60, and tomorrow's will be a breezy 63 with a few light showers possible, particularly in the late morning and afternoon.
Thursday will be mostly cloudy and cooler (high 46) with a slight chance of showers and drizzle in the afternoon. The Nor'easter I mentioned over the weekend has not materialized. Friday and Saturday look partly sunny and continued cool with highs in the mid 40s.
Sunday to Monday is still looking interesting, though most of the traditional meteorological outlets are saying little about it. My prediction is that by Thursday or Friday, they will. Expect a high on Sunday in the upper 30s to near 40, then an overnight low in the upper 20s. Conditions are lining up for a ice storm, which would knock us out of school Monday. From what I have heard, this day off would be a welcome--and in some quarters, desperately needed--respite. So, you know, I am doing my best to make sure this happens.
As for the remainder of next week, things are (to employ an oft-used weather pun) up in the air. If cold air dams down from Canada, we could see temperatures plummet into the teens and twenties. I still see a nice snowstorm possible right around Wednesday 2/8 to Thursday 2/9.
Next weekend (the 11th and 12th) look gorgeous: highs in the low to mid 50s with plenty of sunshine.
Upcoming winter weather potentials
The first chance of some wintry weather comes this evening (7-11pm or so), when we could see some flurries or a brief period of light snow. The clouds will clear overnight and usher in a partly sunny and cool Monday with highs in the upper 30s.
Tuesday will be pleasant and milder with a high in the low 50s; Wednesday will be milder still with a high in the mid 50s. We could see a few rain showers on Wednesday.
I'm tracking a Nor'easter that could come into play on Thursday evening into Friday and cause major disruptions. As of now, though, given the snowless and mild pattern that's dominating, I don't think it's going to pan out. I'll call it partly sunny and cooler with highs in the mid 40s on Thursday, low 40s on Friday. It's a "miss" for now, but stay tuned for updates. (If we get anything, it'll be plain rain.)
Saturday and Sunday are much colder with plenty of clouds and highs at or below freezing. In fact, we'll see a shift from milder conditions to a frigid blast.
Most concerning to me is what I'm seeing for Monday, February 6th. It looks like we'll be dealing with snow and ice for the bulk of that day, and school disruptions seem likely. The high will only make it to 30.
And then... another potential snowstorm for February 8th-9th.
In sum, there are signs that wintry weather may actually return to winter. Many people have said they could use a snow day (or at least, and preferably, a delay). I'd venture to say we'll see both in the next two weeks...
Freezing drizzle tonight, then a warm-up
Tonight we'll see some light rain showers and freezing drizzle come through the area, with the potential to create some icy spots on the roads, even those that have been cleared. Greatest hazard is after 9pm tonight, through to around 4 or 5am. By the morning commute (6-8am), surfaces temperatures will be a few degrees above freezing. We could, however, encounter some fog on Monday morning, which obscures visibility and would make it more difficult to detect any lingering slick spots. Considering all that, I'll call it:
40% chance of school delays
10% chance of school cancellation
After all that, we'll see rain developing, steady to heavy at times, throughout the day and evening Monday. Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s and even top 50 in some places.
Tuesday looks mostly sunny, breezy and mild with highs around 50.
Wednesday and Thursday will see highs a bit lower, with the freezing rain potential returning for Thursday (stay tuned).
Beyond that, still looking at the 30th-31st for a potential ice-sleet event, as well as February 3rd to 4th for some snow!
Quick update on upcoming events
It's Thursday evening here, and a bit of light snow approaches from the west. Flurries should begin to fall around here by about 8pm and intensify into a period of light snow in the overnight hours. The event will end by 2am or so, but roads could be coated with a thin covering of snow, which could be a bit slick in places. Total accumulations will be only be a coating to a half-inch, but here is my call for winter weather school disruptions:
55% delay Friday
15% cancellation Friday
These are panels from a forecast model addressing Saturday's event. The right panel indicates precipitation; the left panel indicates surface temperature. Note that the pink line, which denotes the freezing mark, cuts right through Berks on Saturday evening. As I note below, it's going to be a close call in terms of precipitation type and timing...
The Saturday event is looking more and more interesting. Snow arrives around midnight Friday night and continues through Saturday morning, tapering toward late afternoon, when it will likely mix with some rain. We could even see a bit of light snow and sleet linger into Saturday evening as temperatures drop back below freezing. Total accumulations will be right around 3 inches in this area with snow to ice and rain south and east. Areas north of us, including Allentown, State College, Scranton, and the Poconos, could see 4+ inches from this event. The wildcard here is the warmer air coming in from the south and east: how far north it creeps and how warm it gets will potentially impact the totals and precipitation types here, so stay tuned...
The next wintry weather potential on the horizon doesn't come in until January 31st - February 1st.
Snow / sleet potential, next few days
Thought I'd update you on a few wintry weather mini-events in our near future:
Today we could see flurries and scattered snow showers in the morning and early afternoon, then turning windy and colder. No accumulation. High 38.
Thursday will feature plenty of clouds, especially as the day goes on, and the late afternoon and evening will bring the chance of widely scattered light snow showers and flurries. No accumulation in most places; a coating in some. High in the mid 30s, low in the low 20s. (Delay Friday 20%, cancellation 5%.)
Friday looks mostly sunny, breezy, and continued cold. High 34.
Snow, later mixed with sleet, is likely late Friday overnight into Saturday, tapering by Saturday afternoon. Right now it's looking as though we'll get, at most, an inch or two of accumulation out of this system before it ends as plain rain. Temperatures holding at or just above freezing for most of the day. Then Sunday looks partly sunny and milder with a high in the low 40s.
Milder next week (highs in the 40s to near 50 some days) so the precipitation we see on Tuesday-Wednesday and Friday should be all rain.
There are some indications of a pattern change for the first part of February that would bring us some actual snow...but I'm not holding my breath...
MLK Day / forecast
Today is Martin Luther King Day. Less well-known than his civil rights work is Dr. King’s anti-war stance, which emerged strongly in the final year of his life. This pacifist epiphany occurred when "I knew that I could never again raise my voice against the violence of the oppressed in the ghettos without having first spoken clearly to the greatest purveyor of violence in the world today, my own government." On April 4, 1967, Dr. King delivered an address entitled “A Time to Break Silence.” It included the following words:
"Now, it should be incandescently clear that no one who has any concern for the integrity and life of America today can ignore the present war. If America's soul becomes totally poisoned, part of the autopsy must read: Vietnam. It can never be saved so long as it destroys the deepest hopes of men the world over. So it is that those of us who are yet determined that America will be are led down the path of protest and dissent, working for the health of our land."
Exactly one year later, he was assassinated in Memphis. James Earl Ray confessed to the murder, but theories persist that Dr. King’s nascent anti-war agitation made him a target of those who were waging that unpopular war.
Anywho. No way to smoothly transition from MLK to the weather.
So here’s what to expect overnight:
Monday will be mostly sunny and breezy today with a high only in the mid 30s.
Rain begins overnight – by 11 or 12. Sleet and freezing rain mix in throughout the early overnight hours, then changes to all rain by 4 or 5am. We could see a small accumulation of ice on the roads and sidewalks overnight—so use caution when driving—but this will be washed away by morning. Rain then tapers by late Tuesday afternoon. (The temperatures will actually rise overnight, from 32 at 11pm to 38 by 9am. Problem is, there’s no classic “trough” to trap to cold air into our area.) Still, we could see a bit of the slipperiness hang around into the morning commute, so I’ll call it:
40% chance of school delays.
15% chance of school cancellation.
The high temperature will actually reach a (comparatively) balmy 46.
Wednesday looks partly sunny, quite windy, and colder, with a high of 36 and an overnight low in the upper teens.
Thursday and Friday look like more of the same, albeit with diminishing winds. (Slight chance of snow showers Thursday night into Friday. No big whoop.)
The weekend looks milder with highs in the low 50s, but also the chance of some (rain) showers.
Snow? Ice? Wintry weather? I see nothing terribly promising through to the end of January.
Of course, all that can change rapidly, so stay tuned…
What to expect for Friday morning ... and beyond
It's been a bleak winter for snowbirds thus far. Let's see what Friday has in store...
Today we'll see gradual clearing in the afternoon, with some breaks of sun. Mild temperatures with a high in the mid 50s. Increasingly windy tonight with a few showers. Temperatures will fall through the 40s and into the 30s by the overnight hours.
Friday morning will be interesting, but I think we'll escape major issues. One theory has it that we could see a "flash freeze" overnight due to rapidly falling temperatures and wet roadways, but I don't see the cold air making very good time to our area. Another theory has the cold air arriving in time for a few inches of snow to accumulate in this area. I don't see enough moisture to warrant this theory, though.
So: Friday will be very windy with scattered flurries and snow showers in the morning. Sustained winds above 30mph; gusts past 50mph. Highs in the low 30s early, falling through the 20s throughout the day. Expect wind chills in the teens. Could see scattered power outages from the cold and wind.
Predictions: Friday cancellation 10%; Friday delay 30%.
This weekend looks partly sunny, breezy and frigid. High Saturday will be 33; low 18. High Sunday will be 27, low 11.
More of the same for Monday: highs below freezing. A weak front moves through on Tuesday evening that could bring us some snow showers, but nothing much is expected.
Keeping an eye on Saturday 1/21 for possible snow, as well as Wednesday 1/25 into Thursday 1/26 for the potential for snow and ice. But really, it's looking like we may may it through all of January with no snow-related delays or cancellations...
Arctic blast & flurries, then milder...
My good people,
The arctic blast is not exactly news to anyone who has been outside in the past twenty-four hours. I've had lots of queries about the temperature (how low will it go? why does it have to be so fricking cold?) and precipitation (is there any real snow coming our way? where's winter?). To address these queries...
Tuesday night will be really, really, bitterly cold. The temperature will get down to 11. Wind chill factors could get as low as -10. Negative ten!!!! Brrr.
Wednesday will be overcast in the main, with flurries and even a few snow showers moving through in the afternoon and evening. I don't expect any significant accumulation, but as with this morning's unexpected squalls, any snowfall can cause slippery travel and decreased visibility. Expect a high only in the upper 20s tomorrow, followed by an overnight low in the upper teens.
On Thursday we'll see conditions become a bit milder. Look for a mostly sunny high of 42 and a low in the upper 20s. Moderate winds will still make daytime temperatures feel like they are around the freezing mark.
Friday will be milder still: sun mixed with clouds, only a light wind, and a high in the upper 40s.
The weekend is looking nice with highs in the low 50s on Saturday and the upper 40s on Sunday.
One model's projection for the Sunday-Monday system. Under this projection, we'd get a direct hit and significant, accumulating snowfall. But again, I think this one is a "miss" for us...Monday will bring a return of seasonable cold, though nothing approaching the current frigidity. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be around 40. (There's a slight chance of snow Sunday into Monday, but it's looking like that's going to miss us altogether to the south.)
The next really good chance for some frozen precipitation will come on Thursday 1/12 into Friday 1/13. Stay tuned for updates on that.
The 14th-15th-16th long weekend looks bitterly cold again, with highs below freezing and lows in the teens...
Bundle up...
The latest on the storm...
It’s a difficult one to call because any significant accumulation that results from this storm will be due to “banding”—and it’s hard to predict where this will take place. It’s also a fast-moving storm with a lot of potential punching power. In short, it’s a storm that has the potential to slam some places and graze others.
The forecast…
Total precipitation for this storm, rain and snow. Note that we in Berks are in the range of highest precipitation, and we'll be prime beneficiaries of dynamic cooling. Hence, the "sweet spot."It’s looking more and more like we (in central and southern Berks, and northern Lancaster County) may be in the “sweet spot” of this storm—a narrow swath of heavy accumulation that runs from York northeast to Allentown.
Expect heavy rain this afternoon and evening, with temperatures falling through the 40s and into the upper 30s. Total rainfall will be in the neighborhood of 1.5 inches.
Then we’ll see a changeover to heavy, wet snow around midnight; the wind will also kick up toward this time. Visibilities will be reduced as snow falls (with varying intensity in most places—but as I indicated earlier, thick and fast in some places) from roughly 1am to 7am. Travel will become slippery as roads quickly get snow-covered and slushy.
School disruption Thursday: delay 65%; cancellation 40%.
Total accumulations: 2 to 4 inches, with a bit more possible in higher elevations.
Then we’ll see rapid clearing through Thursday afternoon with a high in the mid 40s (and wind chills in the 20s).
Friday looks partly cloudy and breezy with a high in the mid 40s.
Saturday and Sunday look sunny and colder with windy conditions on Saturday. Highs both days will only be in the upper 30s, with lows in the mid 20s.
Midweek Snow Potential?
Some of you have been asking me about the potential for a snowstorm around midweek. The forecast models are all over the place, with some seeing a major storm and others seeing an out-to-sea bust. So here's my take:
First, expect fog, rain, and drizzle Monday night into Tuesday morning, with scattered mist and showers throughout Tuesday. Temperatures generally in the low to mid 50s.
Wednesday will feature cooler temperatures (high in the mid 40s) and widely scattered rain showers. This rain will mix with and change to snow overnight (in the neighborhood of 1am to 7am). We're talking about accumulations of an inch at most - more likely, we'll see an outright miss or a nuisance coating.
(Just in case: chance of delay Thursday, 20%; chance of cancellation Thursday, 10%.)
Thursday will turn out partly sunny and chilly with a high only in the mid 40s.
Friday looks sunny and cooler with highs only in the lower 40s.
Saturday and Sunday are dry and sunny, but quite cold. Highs will only get into the upper 30s (it will feel colder with a windy Saturday) and lows will dip into the mid 20s.
Next week looks like more of the same. Keeping an eye on potential ice storms around the 13th-14th and the 18th-19th.
Stay tuned for updates on this week's storm and all future weather events!