Monsoon's December Kickoff Forecast - including new WeatherTable!
Yes, my good people. I greet you again to share a forecast.
The WeatherTable below is new and improved. I do not think I exaggerate when I say that it will not only change your life, but change the way you look at life. It will provide insight into the darkest secrets of humanity. It is, quite literally, a portal into the profound, a doorway into oblivion - a stairway to heaven. The meaning of life will become as clear as the words on this screen - the very words that I doubt you are still reading, and if you are, I am mercilessly abusing your indulgence.
Here it is:
Monsoon's Deluxe Gigaspheric Strato-Enabled Cloudtastic WeatherTable 13000000
I will post updates as needed, particularly involving the potential for mixed precipitation and wintry weather on and around 12/6, 12/9, and 12/13.
As always, I invite your comments and questions! Just click on my name below...
Monsoon's Winter 2011-12 Forecast
It's time.
Meteorological winter (December through February) is almost upon us, and it is time for me to cogitate, calculate, speculate, and prognosticate. And depending on the quality of the forecast, you all will either flagellate or adulate me.
But farewell it, for I will use no art.
(Wait, you might say: hasn't winter already begun? Didn't we have 8 to 10 inches of wintry wetness plopped on our pumpkins and mums and harvest milieus at the end of October? Yes, we did; the picture at right, taken in front of our house, attests to it. But it was an anomaly, a climatological pink moon, and it will not figure in my figuring here.)
Over all, expect a stormy winter of merciless vicissitudes, both in terms of temperature and barometric pressure. There will be a few hits and lots of near-misses. Tracking it all will be fun. (I mean that. I know sarcasm is my true medium, but I really mean that I find weather-watching and forecasting to be enjoyable.)
December 2011: this month will start with temperatures at or near normal (highs in the upper 40s, lows at or just below freezing), then around the 7th or 8th, we'll see a precipitous drop-off, with highs only in the upper 30s--and perhaps even a bit of snowfall. By mid-month we'll be back to normal, and expect a stormy, frigid end of December. Temperatures a couple of degrees below normal over all. Total snowfall: 4-6 inches. School disruptions: no delays, no cancellations.
January 2012: the end-of-year turbulence will continue into January, when we'll see some abnormally cold temperatures. The typical January thaw will follow around the third week of the month, but it will be short-lived. Temperatures 3 degrees below normal over all. Total snowfall: 10-12 inches. School disruptions: 4 delays, 2 cancellations.
February 2012: Some snow early, including a potentially major storm. Then we'll see a warm-up by mid-month, and temperatures will actually be a few degrees above normal for the month. Total snowfall: 8-10 inches. School disruptions: 2 delays, 1 cancellation.
March 2012: rainy to start, with a bit of snow mixed in early in the month, but nothing major. Temperatures will be a degree above normal. Total snowfall: nothing significant. School disruptions: 1 delay, no cancellations.
In all, I expect we'll get at or just below the normal snowfall for this region, 25 inches. We'll have 7 delays and 3 cancellations.
And I am looking forward to casting fore for you fine people, all winter long...
SERIOUSLY??
Yes, my good people, seriously. Snow in October. A Nor'easter, no less.
Here's my call:
Accumulations will generally be 4 to 6 inches of heavy, wet snow throughout Berks County; a bit less south and east of us, and a bit more in higher elevations and areas north and northeast. The greatest impact with this storm will actually be downed tree limbs (since a lot of trees still have their leaves, and are therefore heavier), and the concomitant loss of power.
Precipitation arrives as light rain in the overnight hours (12 midnight - 3am) when temperatures will be in the upper 30s.
Rain begins to mix with snow by 9 or 10am.
The most intense period of snowfall will be between noon and 6. Wind chills will be in the 20s as the storm gets going. Most of the accumulation from this storm will be primarily on trees, cars, grassy areas, and the like; roads will just be wet and slushy. However, when the snow is at its heaviest, it will accumulate even on a warmish ground.
Snow tapers by 7 or 8, then temperatures plummet into the upper 20s overnight.
Sunday's sunny skies and high in the upper 40s (not to mention the mid-autumn sun angle) will melt this all away in no time...
In addition, this is the kind of storm that will likely feature banding and thundersnow. Banding is a heavy area in a storm that can drop several inches (or more!) per hour in one area, and very little in a neighboring area. Thundersnow is, well, what it sounds like - though the thunder is audible in a smaller area than in a traditional thunderstorm because the snow actually serves to suppress the sound.
Happy Halloween!
A vitality that could not be quenched...
My dear readers,
I greet you now from athwart a stack of term paper summaries, designed to verify that the students have actually read their books. Some students--including, but not limited to, those who have not read their books--take this opportunity to reinvent literary scholarship, vitiate the language, and spin out phrases that make their teacher emit a sound that is one part sigh, one part guffaw, and two parts despair. I will share several such groundbreaking proclamations here, interspersed among the forecast for the coming ten days or so.
Thursday, October 27th will be rainy. Rain will begin sometime around dawn and continue (some light, some moderate) through the early evening, tapering by around 6 or 7. Temperatures will fall from the mid 50s in the morning through the 40s in the late afternoon and evening (when the wind will pick up, too, making conditions feel like the upper 30s), then finally to an overnight low of 34.
Friday, October 28th will see some lingering clouds but a mostly sunny afternoon. It will also be much cooler than in recent days, with highs only getting up to 51. The overnight low could dip as low as the freezing mark.
Our first selection comes from a student who read a portion of the novel A Separate Peace, then consulted an online cheat-sheet, which used a phrase that he deeply misunderstood:
Finny breaks his leg once again, and this time he died because he had a vitality that could not be quenched, even by bone marrow.
An unquenchable vitality, you say? Sounds serious. My uncle had a certain je ne sais quois, but fortunately it was not fatal. And I knew a guy who had brass balls, but he had them removed by a friggin' ballbuster. But a vitality that could not be quenched? Even by bone marrow? Damn.
Saturday, October 29th will be cloudy and breezy with rain likely, especially in the morning and early afternoon. Some wet snow (!) could mix in, and the Poconos could see a coating to an inch of accumulation. Clearing and still a bit breezy at night. High will be in the low 40s, but conditions will feel like the low 30s or even the 20s for much of the day!
Sunday, October 30th will be sunny and far more humane. Highs will get into the low to mid 50s and winds will diminish. Overnight lows will still get into the upper 30s.
Our next bit of literary analysis comes from a student who read one-eighth, at most, of the Kate Chopin classic The Awakening. Here, the student struggles to encapsulate the lessons learned in a novel filled with infidelity, longing, and a desperate search for identity:
You believe that love is a one way train but near the middle you find out that it is not.
I believe that love is a one way train, do I? I most certainly do not. A two-way street? A freight train of passion? And don't tell me about the middle. What about the end, when the protagonist drowned herself? Was the train of love dashed on the shores of sadness? Ugh.
Monday, October 31st will see clouds mixed with sunshine, breezy, with a high in the mid 50s and a low in the low 40s.
Tuesday, November 1st will be far more seasonable: highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 40s.
Wednesday, November 2nd looks sunny and windy, with highs in the mid 50s (but wind chills in the 40s) and lows in the low to mid 40s.
Next up to the dais here at the Literary Transmogrification Conference is a student who read Alan Paton's South African protest novel, Cry, the Beloved Country. This student will discuss the experience of reading the book, and suggest who might find such an experience most meaningful:
Also alot of names and words are African, so it can be hard to follow. I would only recommend this story if you are really interested by African culture, but not like tribal culture, more about Johannesburg.
The characters in this story have names like Stephen, John, James, and Arthur. Granted, the surnames are Kumalo and Msimangu (along with Jarvis, Carmichael, and Harrison). And a pet peeve of mine: Africa is one of the largest continents on this planet, with more than 50 countries today. Even within a single country, there can be hundreds of ethnic groups and clans. The inhabitants of Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa are as different from one another as the inhabitants of Norway, Laos, and Peru. And yet we see Africa as a monolith. As the kids abbreviate, SMH (shaking my head)...
Thursday, November 3rd will be cloudy, a bit of rain possible, high in the mid 50s, low in the mid 40s.
Friday, November 4th looks partly cloudy and cooler with highs in the upper 40s and lows at or below freezing.
And finally, one student offers a ray of hope: coherent, insightful analysis. The sentence below represents the entirety of his A Clockwork Orange summary:
Alex makes up some brutal invented slang that brilliantly renders his and his friends social pathology.
A couple of flies in the ointment, to continue the cliche parade: first, all evidence suggests that this student--who is now a quarter into his second senior year--did not read a single word of the book; second, the bulk of that sentence (from "brutal" to "pathology") was lifted directly from the book's back cover. And third, I might add, the student later insists that trouble ensues when the authorities do not allow Alex and his friends to use their invented language (glossing over the rape and murder sprees that may have had more to do with it). Sigh.
Saturday, November 5th will be sunny and gorgeous, with highs in the low 50s and lows in the low to mid 30s.
Sunday, November 6th looks the same.
Beyond we will see a return of wet weather (around the 8th or 9th) and slightly moderating temperatures (highs in the upper 50s and into the 60s).
I'll end tonight's post with a comment from a student who read Ken Kesey's One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest. In that novel, which takes place in a mental institution in the 1950s. The sentence encapsulate what is so simultaneously maddening and gladdening about teaching seniors: unadorned, uncompromised, and unfiltered honesty--along with casting apostrophes to the wind. It also foreshadows the condition of their instructor by the end of this process:
Shock therapy was introduced and basically fried peoples minds.
Monsoon's Renaissance Faire forecast
Tomorrow (Thursday 10/13) is the annual Renaissance Faire trip, and right on schedule, the weather is making jeopardizing a merry olde tyme. Today we’ll see steady rain this morning, scattered showers this afternoon, and heavy rain in the evening and late at night, when thunderstorms could mix in as well.
Then we’ll enjoy a lull in the precipitation; the timing of that lull will determine whether those in attendance will be huddling miserably under umbrellas crying, “Fie upon these rain-droppes! ‘Sblood!” or carousing gaily through the Shire saying, “Gramercy, Mother Nature, for sparing us thy ruinous mudde-puddle-makers!”
Anywho.
Here’s what I think is going to happen. We’ll see fog, light rain and widely scattered showers in the morning, then continued cloudiness (but generally no rain) and becoming a bit breezy in the afternoon, followed by showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Temperatures throughout the day: 59 degrees at 8am; 62 degrees at 10am; 68 degrees at noon; and 71 degrees at 2pm.
We’ll see showers on Friday, especially in the morning, with a high around 70.
For the weekend, expect cooler temperatures but clear skies. The high of 64 on Saturday will feel like the upper 50s due to windy conditions; expect overnight lows in the 40s. Sunday’s high will be 67.
Next good chance of rain will be Wednesday the 19th. Thereafter, we’ll see a major cool-down with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.
Lee brings the rain, brings the pain
Good people,
I am sitting here enjoying a baseball contest between the odious Braves of Atlanta (and their racist, ridiculous tomahawk chop) and the Phillies of Illadelphia. Actually, it's not much of a contest, given the pitching prowess of Cliff Lee and some fine defensive work by the likes of Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard.
Speaking of Lee, the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee are churning up the Appalachian Trail right now, and will be soaking us right through to the tighty whities for the foreseeable future. Take a look:
So yeah.
It's going to rain, generally very hard, from now (Monday evening) right through to Thursday morning. Already-waterlogged areas (from an August that saw record-setting rainfall and then Irene) will get 3-5 more inches of rain. Flooding will be a real problem, though mercifully, wind will not be an issue. Still, look out for scattered power outages and some downed trees.
Tuesday will be noticeably cooler with highs only in the mid 60s; Wednesday and Thursday will see increased humidity as highs reach into the mid to upper 70s. We'll see rain taper throughout the day on Thursday.
Friday will be partly cloudy and still rather humid, with highs near 80. More of the same for the weekend, with highs reaching into the mid 80s.
So when will it cool down, Monsoon? I mean, it's the middle of September, for Bunk's sake!
Well, it just so happens that the cool-down will coincide with the precise midpoint of the month: Thursday will see highs in the upper 60s, and by the following weekend, we may even see overnight temperatures dip into the 40s!
Come on, Irene
Hurricane Irene, named after the Greek word for “peace,” is set to wreak anything but. Just days ago we sat in jangled awe of a workshop leader who could not even be stopped by a natural disaster; the hurricane’s impact on our area may be serious enough to delay the start of the school year.
The details:
Hurricane Irene is currently a category 3 storm, meaning it has sustained winds of 111-130mph. It’s also very slow-moving, so it’s liable to dump lots of rain on any given location. Coastal areas in North Carolina and Maryland have called for mandatory evacuations ahead of the storm, which is set to hit these areas Saturday into Saturday night. Definitive track is still up for conjecture, but the consensus is a more westward track.
Here’s what to expect in our region:
The outer bands of the hurricane reach our area by later Saturday afternoon, bringing light to moderate rainfall. Toward the overnight hours, the rain will intensify and winds will pick up. On Sunday, rain will fall for much of the daylight period, and winds on the back end of the storm (as it pulls away and moves to NYC and New England) will be in excess of 50mph. Total rainfall will be 3 to 6 inches in most places, with isolated areas getting as much as 10 inches. When it passes through southeastern Pennsylvania, Irene will be a tropical storm, but the potential for damage is still very real:
- Flooding. August has been one of the wettest months in history for many of us, and this intense period of additional rainfall has the potential to cause serious and widespread flooding.
- Outages. The waterlogged soil will surrender trees to the wind, and when these trees come down, they often bring power lines with them. And they block roads.
- Beach erosion. Obviously this will be confined to coastal areas, which will also be beset with flooding, wind damage to roofs and windows, and the like.
- Travel nightmares. Flooding and downed trees could potentially delay road travel; high winds and driving rain are likely to delay air travel.
The bottom line is that school cancellations are not out of the question for some, delaying the start of the school year until Tuesday, 8/30. This eventuality will depend on the prevalence of the above storm-related complications in and around schools and their communities. At this early moment, I will assign a 20% probability of cancellation or delay for Monday 8/29.
Behind the storm, look for sunny, dry and pleasant conditions from Monday through Thursday with highs around 80.
Oh, and … have a great school year!
Monsoon's Quick Update: Relief from Muggy Swampiness
My good people,
Later on today, a cool front is going to move through, providing some relief from the midsummer-like heat and humidity of the past few days. With that cool front, we'll see some thunderstorms in the mid- and late-afternoon. After a high at or near 90 today, temperatures will plummet into the upper 50s overnight.
Tomorrow we'll enjoy plenty of sunshine, lower humidity, breezy conditions, and a high around 80.
Friday - the rescheduled Imagine Day, which was originally announced as having no rain date - will be beautiful: high in the upper 70s, light breezes, and mostly sunny skies. Low Friday night down around 50.
Saturday looks partly cloudy and a bit warmer. High in the low 80s.
Sunday will continue partly cloudy with highs in the mid 80s.
Next week looks like more of the same - highs in the low to mid 80s, plenty of sunshine - with a bit more heat and humidity later in the week.
Stay tuned for updates...
Monsoon's Judgment Day Approacheth Forecast
My forecast will include the hotly anticipated Imagine Day forecast and conclude with the cataclysmic events of Armageddon, which is slated for Saturday evening.
Thursday 5/19: overcast with thunderstorms likely in the late afternoon and evening, some of which could be severe. A stray shower or two can't be ruled out. High in the mid 70s.
Friday 5/20: mostly cloudy with scattered light rain throughout the morning and early afternoon, and a chance of thunderstorms from mid-afternoon forward. We could see some peeks of sunshine in the afternoon. High again in the mid 70s.
[As far as Imagine Day goes--it is scheduled from 12:30 to 3pm on Friday, with no rain date--I am leaning toward no go. Given all the rain that we've been getting, it'll be a bit soggy out there. Of course, if the event is held, I will monitor the Doppler fastidiously so there are no unpleasant surprises. Right now I'm going with a 40% chance that Imagine Day will go on as scheduled.]
Saturday 5/21: the day will start pleasantly enough, with partly cloudy skies and an afternoon high reaching near 80. Toward evening, temperatures will begin their rapid descent toward the upper 50s. Unfortunately, they will never get there. It has been suggested that the Apocalypse (not to be confused with the 2Pacalalypse, which commenced in 1991) will descend in a massive worldwide earthquake, which will be followed by devastating tsunami, flooding, and of course, a plague of locusts.
Too much suffering for my taste. (And, not to invite smiting, but it's rather poor form, considering the recent crisis in Japan.) I prefer to envision a giant tractor beam that will extract all the true believers from the planet, and then this:
It's been real...
Monsoon breaks hiatus, drops forecast
My good people,
It is been more than a month since my last post. I cannot readily explain this extended delinquency. Perhaps I was suffering ongoing trauma from the Flying Fish incident (see below; this problem has thankfully not reemerged). Perhaps I am just bone-weary thanks to a long, long school year filled with bad news and worse children.
Anywho, I thought it was high time for a good old Monsoon forecast, and so here it is.
Tuesday 5/17: Rainy and cooler with a high in the low 60s. Expect heavy rain, especially early, amounting to perhaps as much as an inch, and isolated thunderstorms in late afternoon and evening.
The heavy rains and thunderstorms that could affect the area on Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday.Wednesday 5/18: Rainy and breezy with a half-inch of rain; flooding problems developing in some areas. High in the mid 60s. Expect showers in the evening and overnight.
Thursday 5/19: Generally cloudy but expect some peeks of sunshine. Much of the day should be rain-free, save for some late afternoon thunderstorms. High in the mid 70s.
Friday 5/20: More clouds than sun; a few showers and drizzle are possible, but not a washout. Scattered late afternoon thunderstorms are possible. High in the mid 70s. [This is Mifflin’s Imagine Day—weather permitting—so I will provide a Thursday update on Friday’s weather. Right now, I’d say there’s a 65% probability that Imagine Day will be held Friday.]
Saturday 5/21: Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and drizzle; thunderstorms possible late. High in the upper 70s.
Sunday 5/22: Some periods of sunshine mixed with clouds; no rain! Rather windy. High in the upper 70s.
Monday 5/23: Warm and humid with plenty of sunshine and storm late afternoon thunderstorms likely. High in the mid 80s.
Tuesday 5/24: Overcast with more of the same from Monday; highs in the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday 5/25: Mostly sunny, warm and humid. Highs in the upper 80s.
Thursday 5/26: Continued sunny, unseasonably warm and humid. (Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid 70s.) High in the low 90s(!).
Friday 5/27: Three days of humid, soupy, rainforesty conditions begin today. Expect highs in the range of 80, with swampy nethers and stinky children.
Beyond: Expect a cool-down Monday 5/30 into Tuesday 5/31, with scattered showers and highs in the mid 60s.
Das Geheimnis des fliegenden Fisch...
...or, the Mystery of the Flying Fish. Allow me to explain.
On Wednesday evening, I parked my car on the street across from my home. On Thursday morning, I returned to this vehicle to find a dead fish lying next to it. I called Mrs. Monsoon over to take a look, but neither of us could make sense of it. Then I noticed that the dead fish had evidently been flung (with more than a little bit of force) against the driver's side door/window/side mirror of my car, leaving a telltale slick of fish guts and scales but no damage. I have illustrated the incident for you below with two pictures taken at the scene and time of the fishy discovery.
The creature in question. It is a perch, according to friends, and it is delicious when prepared with a little bit of butter and lemon. This one, not so appetizing.
The aforementioned fish guts and scales. Difficult to see, but I promise they're there.
I made my way to school and began to speculate (with the help of my trusty colleagues) what this could mean, if anything. A Google search revealed that a dead fish left on one's doorstep is a warning that he or she is going to be killed (i.e., will soon be "sleeping with the fishes" in organized crime parlance).
[In response to this revelation, a very wise acquaintance of mine wondered aloud, "If a fish means you'll be sleeping with the fishes, what does a horse head in your bed mean, that you'll be sleeping with the horses? What would that even mean?" What, indeed.]
Today, my good people, there was another fish--not in the same place, and this one had not been flung at my car. But it was a fresh fish on the other side of the street (more or less in front of our house) nonetheless. There was also a dead baby animal, possibly a squirrel, not far away.
I have just one question, and perhaps you fine readers can help me out with an answer:
Several theories have emerged to explain this piscine perplexity--some plausible, some delightfully implausible, some so crazy they just might work. Here is a mishmosh...
- This is a tragic case of the rare but heartbreaking phenomenon of serial ichthycide: catching (or even purchasing) live fish, only to end their lives by flinging them against an immovable object at high speed.
- Fish suicide. Too sad to even elaborate.
- The random acts of local hooligans. Young tom-fools, well lubricated with liquor and laden with a bucketful of fresh-caught fish from Muddy Creek, decided to drive down our street in the wee hours and fling the fish at cars. Makes cow-tipping look like a night at the opera.
- I am being targeted by someone I have rankled: a mouthbreathing tea party type, a disgruntled student, an unabashed white person. The theory is that these fishy incidents will chasten me to stop whatever behavior is causing the objection (in the list above: thinking, grading, and listening to hip hop).
- I am being targeted because I am a teacher, and according to many right-wingers, teachers and their unions are the root of all the social and economic evils now faced by our society.
- I am being targeted by broken-nose types for reasons I cannot fathom.
- I am being targeted by any number of organizations, for any number of reasons that I will not enumerate here: the Victor Emmanuel Society, the Knights of Columbus, the Boy Scouts of America...
- A hawk with missing talons has caught the fish in the creek, but then dropped them due to its disfigurement. This would explain both fishes and the baby rodent, mind you, and I thank Wendi for her demented genius.
- The nine-year-old girl in the pink jacket who lives nearby is actually a child prodigy who has built a fully functioning catapult out of twigs and acorns; she has been testing it out using creatures killed by her pet cat and left in their yard.
Well, that's it. Vote for your favorite, or provide another idea. The best ones will be included in my next post. I've gotta move on: bigger fish to fry. (Sorry. I showed admirable fish-idiom restraint throughout that story, I think.)
Friday night, rain tapering to scattered drizzle by the evening. Low 38.
Saturday, foggy to start, and then mostly cloudy; slight chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon. Breezy. High 58, low 44.
Sunday, cloudy and rainy, mainly in the afternoon. High 64, low 53.
Monday, partly cloudy with warm southwest breezes. Look for strong thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening. High 79, low 56.
Tuesday, very windy and markedly cooler with the chance of a lingering shower or thunderstorm in the morning. High 61, low 36.
Wednesday, sunny, breezy and pleasant. High 63, low 40.
Thursday, partly cloudy and warmer. High 69, low 46.
Friday, cloudy with rain possible. High 65, low 54.
Next weekend (the 16th and 17th), rainy and warmer with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
DONNERGRAUPELN!
...that's German for 'thundersleet,' which is what is pummeling my home right now. Bunk is plastered to my side and I am coining new German words. It is truly meteorological madness.
What to expect for the rest of the evening? Periods of rain, some heavy, with sleet mixed in. Another round of nasty storms (and perhaps more thunder and lightning) will move through around 9 or 10. The precipitation could end overnight as snow, leaving a coating to an inch on cars and grassy areas.
Chance of delay Thursday: 20%; chance of cancellation Thursday, 5%.
Aside from a few early-morning rain or snow showers, Thursday will turn out windy and cool with some afternoon clearing possible. The high only gets up to 40; the overnight low will be 24.
Friday will be sunny, breezy, clear and cold, with increasing clouds late. High 38, low 26.
The weekend looks overcast and cool, with highs in the low 40s and lows in the upper 20s. I'm keeping an eye on a weekend system, but right now that looks like it will give us, at most, a few snow or rain showers on Saturday morning and afternoon. No big whoop. (Unless things change, so stay tuned.)
Next week, we'll see moderating temperatures (highs in the low 50s by Wednesday; upper 40s prior to that) but Tuesday and Wednesday hold the chance for rain.
Next weekend (April 2nd and 3rd) looks like a chilly fricking washout: temperatures in the 50s much of the time with plenty of rainfall.
Will Wednesday be snowy or rainy or slushy or sleety?
Yes, it will.
Rumors have been swirling of 6-10 inches or more of snowfall tomorrow. For most of us, I just don't think that will happen. Let me get right into the forecast, which I've been struggling with for a couple of days now...
For those of us in the forecast area (central and southern Berks, northern Lancaster Counties), we'll see snow begin overnight, mixing with rain by late morning. We will likely see several different types of precipitation (snow, sleet, rain) throughout the afternoon and evening before tapering off to flurries and snow showers overnight into Thursday. I believe rain will be the predominant precipitation type most of us will see. Temperatures will hold steady in the mid-30s for the entire day.
Accumulations: An inch or two of snow and sleet accumulation on grassy and untreated surfaces. Extreme northern Berks, Lehigh, and Schuylkill Counties (as well as NE PA, North Jersey, and the Poconos) could see as much as six inches.
Travel problems: Before sunrise tomorrow morning, as well as tomorrow evening, roads could be slick and a bit treacherous. But while the sun is out, most roads will be merely wet.
School scheduling disruptions: Delay 35%; cancellation 15%.
Stay tuned for updates...
Monsoon's Update: cooler weather, mixed precipitation this week?
The temperature got up to 80 in lots of places Friday, but this is still March. Tomorrow may be the first day of spring, but this week (particularly the 2nd half of it) is going to be more evocative of winter...
We'll see a mostly sunny (but less windy) Sunday with a high of 52 and a low of 33.
Rain will begin overnight Sunday into Monday, and it's possible some sleet will mix in during the wee hours (3am-ish), particularly in northern Berks and the Lehigh Valley. No travel issues, no delays, no problem here. Expect rain, mainly in the morning, tapering to scattered showers for the afternoon. High 52, low 41.
Tuesday will feature variable cloudiness and breezy conditions with high of 54 and a low of 30.
More precipitation arrives late Tuesday night (after midnight) into Wednesday morning. The surface temperature may be low enough that snow will mix in early. This wet snow will change quickly to all rain and, once again, will not affect travel or school schedules. High 44, low 35.
Overcast Thursday with perhaps a few showers leftover (and mixed precipitation may be present on Thursday morning; I'll keep my eye on this developing situation). High 46, low 29.
Friday looks partly cloudy, cool and windy. High 42, low 26.
Next weekend looks like another gorgeous one at this point: highs near 50 and plenty of sunshine.
The last few days of March will be milder with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s but (in a preview of the proverbial April showers) rather rainy.
Stay tuned for updates on the potential winter weather this week, but as of now I see no cause for alarm...
Monsoon's Fünftages- wettervorhersage...
...or, five-day weather forecast.
Thursday 3/17 looks mostly sunny and just a bit breezy. High 64, low 42.
Friday 3/18 will be partly cloudy and unseasonably mild. Becoming breezy. High 74, low 46. A bit of rain and drizzle is possible late Friday night overnight into early Saturday morning.
Saturday 3/19 looks rather windy and cooler. High 56, low 33.
Sunday 3/20 starts mostly sunny and breezy, then clouds up a bit at night. High 52, low 35.
Monday 3/21 is a virtual carbon copy of Sunday, albeit with more clouds and the chance of a few showers late at night. High 52, low 41.
Wettersvorbesichtigung (or, weather sneak-peek): Tuesday and Wednesday will be potentially rainy. Thursday and Friday look plenty sunny, but on the cooler side. Next weekend--the last one in March--looks rainy and cool. Next time we see 70+ degrees will be well into April...
Oh! I received an electronic mail correspondence from a Donna Boehringer Zaun, who teaches Family & Consumer Science at Governor Mifflin Middle School. She schooled me on the correct way to pronounce "Boehringer": BEAR-ing-er (rhymes with Fair Singer). So the next time someone says, "Hey, let's go to BORE-in-jerz!" or "I'm really in the mood for a BOW-rin-gers ice cream cone," you can say, "Not sure what you're referring to, but I'd love to go to BEAR-ing-ers with you. And see that you pronounce it properly from now on. Honestly."
Monsoon's NYT letter; Boehringer's rave; weather update
My good blog-readers...
I am pleased to announce that your old pal Monsoon has written a letter to the editor of the New York Times, and it has been accepted for publication in the 13 March edition of the Sunday Magazine. You can check this link and scroll toward the bottom; my entry is headlined "Dislike Button."
My letter was edited for space due to the new format of the Letters page, so here (for you Monsoon completists out there) is the unexpurgated version:
Editor:
I have long enjoyed the Sunday Magazine as the must-read component your increasingly expensive publication. However, the February 27th issue was, for me, a barrage of bad news. I understand that Mr. Lindgren, the Magazine's new editor, felt he had to take steps to remake the glossy in his image, eliminating those columns or features he deemed outdated or redundant. When I read of Deborah Solomon's firing from the Magazine's interview segment, I felt it made sense to rid the magazine of her combative, repetitive, and sometimes misleading pieces.
But the tale that unfolded in the February 27th issue was one of wholesale attrition. First, I read that this column would be Randy Cohen's last as the Ethicist, later learning in an online article that he had already been replaced. Mr. Cohen's elegant, understated responses to ethical quandaries were the first words I read in each edition of the Magazine, and I am already wondering how Sundays will be the same without his work.
Next, I read that this would be the final column for Virginia Heffernan and "The Medium." As the internet becomes an ever more integral part of our lives--my wife and I often ask one another as we look up a recipe or bit of trivia, "What did we do before the internet?"--it would seem that such a column would be indispensible.
Finally, and perhaps most troubling for a high school English teacher and lover of language, was Ben Zimmer's announcement that this would be the final "On Language" column. Mr. Zimmer performed admirably in the unenviable task of replacing the late William Safire in writing this feature. In this time of rapid changes in the development of language--the redefinition of what is acceptable, the spectrum of global influences, and so on--makes a column like this essential.
Mr. Lindgren's apparent policy of taking a scythe to the Magazine in an effort to improve it and make it more relevant seems to me shortsighted and impetuous. It's a classic case of throwing out the baby with the bathwater, and neglects to consider the deeply held loyalties and preferences of your readership.
As you can see, the editors chopped my references to Hugo Lindgren, the Magazine's new editor, while tightening up some of my more longwinded tangents.
It's almost spring, and the March 11th opening of Boehringer's, Route 272 in Adamstown, is a most welcome sign of that season's approach.
A note about the pronuncation of this throwback drive-in's name: we have been calling it "BOAR-in-jerz" (rhymes with "Four in Purrs") since have been frequenting the joint; most locals say "BERR-ing-ers" (rhymes with "Herr Ringers"); I have even heard it pronounced "BOW-ringers" (rhymes with "Foe Flingers") and "BAY-rin-jerz" (rhymes with "Day Fin Curs").
The German pharmaceutical company Boehringer Ingelheim provides some guidance here: the "oe" construction is an Anglification of the "ö" (o umlaut) in German. The "ö" is difficult for the typical English-speaking mouth to pronounce, but the proper pronunciation is something close to "BAY-rin-gers" (rhymes with Jay Fingers) or "BOH-ring-ers" (rhymes with "Foe Thing Burrs"). Given the tendency of most Pennsylvanians in this region (of German or Penna. Dutch descent) to swallow the "g" in their pronunciations, I'd say either the locals' version ("BERR-ingers") or the second German version ("BOH-ring-ers") is closest. Can anyone shed some light here? Is anyone still reading this?
Well whatever you call the joint, it's fantastic. Boehringer's is celebrating its 75th anniversary this year, and has just created a Facebook presence so you can "Like" them, keep up with goings-on, and generally rave about the place.
Mrs. Monsoon and I went there today for the first time this season. Saw some of my students there (two former, one current) and exchanged pleasantries while waiting for our order. Had my first cheesesteak there (plain, of course). I wasn't expecting Pudge's (the best cheesesteaks in the history of the world; they're in Blue Bell. But I had heard they were good, so I gave it a shot.
My good people, it was damn good. Far better than a cheesesteak from a roadside drive-in has any business being. The roll was good, the cheese was intermingled nicely with the chopped beef, and the overall feeling I departed with was one of pure gustatory pleasure. (Of course, the perfect fries and ice cream cone chaser didn't hurt, either.)
Etiquette is key at Boehringer's: order up at the counter, then step back to wait for your food. The holding open of doors is particularly helpful. Pay with cash only--credit cards and checks are not accepted. Some jackwagon trying to pay for his hot dog, fries, and vanilla milkshake with a platinum card can really gum up the works. Boehringer's is a well-oiled machine, Tucker. Get with the program.
You can't really go wrong at Boehringer's--hot dogs, burgers, steaks, fries, and homemade ice cream. And milkshakes! Oh, the milkshakes. You have to find just the right green-shirted employee, but I have had a few chocolate-peanut butter milkshakes there that made me forget my name.
The ambiance is nice, too. Not inside the place--though there is a sort of controlled chaos that I find strangely calming. I'm talking about the creekside picnic tables where you can enjoy your food and watch the ducks pad about. It's like a little park: dogs, fowl, trees, rocks. It's usually quite comfortable and breezy there, even on a really hot and humid day. Sometimes the ants can be a little vexing and the bees a little threatening and the ducks a little aggressive, but what do you want? You're outside and it's lovely. Eat your butter brickle and stop your frickin' complaining.
It's open Tuesday through Sunday, 11am to about 9pm.
I'd love to hear your favorite Boehringer's memories, stories, foods, etc. Email me!
Now on to the weather...
Today was nice - a bit brisk, but plenty sunny. Sitting outside at Boehringer's got a little chilly as highs only reached into the mid 50s.
Sunday will be nice, but a little cooler: mostly sunny and rather windy with highs in the lower 50s (but this high will feel like the lower 40s due to the whipping winds). Low just below freezing Sunday night.
Monday will feature more clouds than sun and highs in the upper 40s. Just light breezes on this day. Overnight lows in the upper 20s.
Tuesday will begin with plenty of sunshine, but clouds will build in late. Expect milder southeasterly breezes to make the mid-50s high feel even a bit warmer.
Wednesday looks rainy and mild with temperatures in the mid 50s for much of the day. We'll see showers and drizzle rather than the soaking downpours of last week.
Thursday and Friday will be sunny and milder still--Thursday's high will be in the upper 50s, Friday's in the low 60s. Maybe an overnight shower Friday into Saturday, but nothing too bad.
Saturday and Sunday look nice: highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Next week looks rainy and cooler. But it will officially be spring! So there's that...
Monsoon's Forecast: watch for flooding Thursday...
First of all: no snow, no sleet, no freezing rain. A different kind of threat looms for the upcoming couple of days - flooding.
Wednesday will be breezy and somewhat cloudy, and increasingly so throughout the day. Look for some drizzle to begin by 5 or 6pm with steadier rain developing after 9 or so. High 49, low 38.
Thursday will be a washout. It's going to rain right through Wednesday overnight into Thursday, and on into the wee hours of Friday morning. The heaviest rain (and greatest chance for flooding) will fall anytime between noon and 8pm Thursday. Highs in the low 50s late Thursday; lows in the low 40s. Expect around 3 inches of rain with this system.
(To give you an idea of how much rain that is: the normal rainfall for the entire month of March is about 3 1/2 inches. And: if this same system hit us about a month ago, when the temperatures were roughly 20 degrees cooler, we'd be looking at two feet of snow, perhaps more.)
On Friday the clouds will linger and a few morning (or even early afternoon) showers could linger too. The winds will kick up, and temperatures will continue to be mild (highs in the low 50s).
Saturday looks just lovely: sunny and breezy with highs reaching into the mid 50s, with lows in the mid 30s at night.
Sunday will be partly sunny and breezy - just a bit cooler with highs reaching into the seasonable upper 40s. Overnight lows right around freezing.
Next week is a mixed bag: look for more of the same (clouds and sun, highs in the upper 40s) for Monday and Tuesday; a bit of rain possible Wednesday and Thursday as temperatures soar well into the 50s and approach 60; clearing and cooler Friday and Saturday with highs again only in the mid to upper 40s.
Update: Monday night - Tuesday morning snowfall
The snow that fell overnight left a coating to an inch in most of the forecast area, but slammed areas much farther north (Scranton, the Poconos, and north Jersey) with more than six inches.
Tonight, however, it looks as though we stand to get some accumulation. The details...
Monday afternoon and early evening will feature scattered rain showers with perhaps a bit of sleet mixed in. This will pose no serious problems.
Check out that huge swath of moisture currently moving through Indiana and Illinois. That's what figures to give us steady snowfall between about 9pm Monday night and 5am Tuesday morning...Expect accumulating snow to develop by 7 or 8pm tonight. The temperature will be falling through the 20s throughout the overnight hours, so all precipitation will be snow. Snow tapers by 5 or 6am and ends altogether by about 8am.
Accumulations are going to vary widely, and potentially present quite a reversal from the normal snowfall scenario.
Philadelphia and the southeastern counties (Delaware, Lancaster, York, Chester) will receive 3-5 inches.
Berks, Bucks, Montgomery, and much of south Jersey will receive 2-4 inches.
(I believe that Berks County in particular will be in the edge of the heavier snow bands; areas in Northern Berks may get only a couple of inches, while southern Berks gets 4 or 5.)
Mercifully, the areas that got bludgeoned last night and this morning (mentioned at the very top of this entry) will see just snow showers and flurries from this system.
School scheduling disruption percentages are for Berks and northern Lancaster Counties only.
Probability of at least a delay on Tuesday, 75%
Probability of cancellation Tuesday, 55%
Stay tuned for updates and tweakage as more information comes in to the ... what should I call it? Send your suggestions about what I should call my weather command center to me by clicking on my sign-off below...
Monsoon's Weather Update: two potentially wintry systems this week...
Sunday 2/20 will start off sunny with an afternoon high in the upper 30s, but clouds will build in ahead of a system that could bring us a return to winter weather. (Those of you who were dangling your bare arms blithely out your open car windows Friday, basking in the unseasonable 70-plus-degree warmth and insisting the winter was over...what say you now, Fussy Britches? I'm guessing you may have been ruing those cavalier words as you fought your way through 30+ mph winds--with gusts into the 50s--yesterday morning and afternoon...)
Anywho, expect light rain to begin by 8 or 9pm Sunday and quickly change over to snow, which will continue off and on overnight and accumulate a coating to an inch at most, primarily on cars and grassy areas. Changing back over to rain by the morning rush (7 or 8am) as surface temperatures rise above freezing. Some icy and slippery conditions are possible overnight and into the morning rush, as I've indicated in the percentages below, but by 9 or 10am Monday the roads will be slushy or just wet.
Probability of delay Monday, 25%
Probability of cancellation Monday, 10%
So. On Monday 2/21, rain tapers to showers and afternoon temperatures will rise to a noticeably milder 45 degrees. Then a second system comes in, starting as light rain in the evening, but quickly changing to snow by around 10pm as temperatures fall precipitously. There is not a whole lot of moisture associated with this system, so expect just a coating to a half-inch of accumulation, again mainly on cars and grassy surfaces. The temperature will stay in the mid-20s (with wind chills in the low teens) through the morning rush, though, so the potential for hazardous driving through this period is a bit elevated.
Probability of delay Tuesday, 35%
Probability of cancellation Tuesday, 15%
Tuesday 2/22 will be breezy and colder, with highs only reaching into the upper 20s and wind chills spending most of the day in the teens.
Wednesday 2/23 and Thursday 2/24 look to be partly cloudy and steadily warmer; Wednesday's high will be in the mid 30s, while Thursday's will be in the mid 40s.
Friday 2/25 looks rainy. Just rain for now as temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s for much of the day.
Next weekend looks mostly cloudy and a bit windy with highs in the low 40s. A large system packed with a lot of moisture looms for the Sunday 2/27 through Tuesday 3/1 period, but as of now, precipitation type and track are unclear. My best guess is that this is a "miss," but stay tuned. Early March is typically full of wild vicissitudes (particularly in a La Nina winter) and unplesant wintry surprises...
Monsoon's Forecast: Winter isn't finished with us yet...
Temperatures on Friday will reach the mid to upper 60s, challenging record highs in some places. So we’re finished with sub-freezing temperatures, winter weather, and school scheduling disruptions, right?
LOL, my hopeful friends. Your optimism truly has me ROFL.
Anywho.
The answers are no, probably not, and possibly not. I mean, the angle of the sun is changing every day, becoming more direct; and a good deal of the snowpack has melted. But still, those are my answers.
Here are the details:
Friday 2/18: partly cloudy and breezy with strong winds developing Friday evening and overnight. Afternoon high of 66; there is the slight chance of a passing shower in the afternoon. Clearing overnight and markedly colder with a low of 38.
Why do I have a picture of Charles "Boobie" Clark, famed Bethune-Cookman alum and 1970s Cincinnati Bengals running back, on this blog entry? Is his glowering, afroed presence somehow germane to my discussion of the weather? No, my good people. I have invited him here simply because it seemed like the thing to do. Enjoy.Saturday 2/19: partly to mostly cloudy and really damned windy. The afternoon high of 48 will actually feel more like 32 because of the winds. Winds diminish later; overnight low of 22.
Sunday 2/20: overcast with a chance of rain and drizzle, especially later in the afternoon and in the evening. High 44, low 32. Becoming rather breezy late.
Monday 2/21: cloudy and windy with a bit of rain likely. High 45, low 24. (But wind chills at night and overnight will be in the single digits.)
Tuesday 2/22: a lot depends of track and timing here, but we could get some snow overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Be sure to check back on Monday (or before, if new information comes to light) for updates, but as of now I’d say you should expect an inch or two of wet snow and minimal travel/school disruptions. I know, you’re all, like, ONNA, but I’m all, TWIS, so GOI.
Whatever the case, it’s going to be windy and colder on Tuesday. Look for overcast skies; high 36 (wind chills in the 20s), low 21 (wind chills in the teens).
Wednesday 2/23: sunny, nice, calmer wind. High 43, low 28.
Thursday 2/24: partly cloudy and cool, but seasonably so (average high for this time of year is 43 or 44 degrees). High 46, low 30. IMHO, this will be the last day for a while that will see below-freezing temperatures. JK! See Friday. And Sunday. And beyond.
Friday 2/25: clouds build in ahead of a system that will affect our area next weekend. Look for warm southeast winds that will usher in warmer air. High 44, low 29.
Next weekend: at this point, it looks like a hot mess. We’ll get up into the upper 50s on a rainy Saturday, then nosedive into the teens overnight into Sunday. People will be, like, OMG, it’s cold! And someone else will be, like, WDYM? It’s still winter! Look for highs barely above freezing on Sunday and Monday, the last two days of February.
Beyond: this system really has my attention. It’s looking like the first two days of March could signal a slam-bang, lead-blanket, charging-rhino type of winter weather event. (I don’t know precisely what I meant by all of those terms, but they sound good and alarming, do they not?)
TTYL,
I decided to provide a "key" for my chat/texting abbreviations... I will confess that while writing the post I had to look a few of these up to make sure I was using them properly...
LOL = laugh out loud
ROFL = rolling on the floor laughing
ONNA = oh no, not again
TWIS = that's what I said!
GOI = get over it
IMHO = in my humble opinion
JK = just kidding!
OMG = oh my gosh
WDYM = what do you mean?
TTYL = talk to you later...