"Finally, I can feel my face."
That is what millions in the Northeast will say on Friday as the temperature rises above freezing for the first time in about a week.
And I think the next few days will be the last of the extreme cold in this brutal, merciless, frigid, deep-bone-shuddering frost-scape of a winter. I mean, it'll still be cold. But normal cold for early February--highs in the upper 30s, lows in the lower 20s. Not Arctic Circle-type action.
Thursday 1/30 will be frigid, still, after a frigid night (down to 5 overnight). High 28, low 15.
Friday 1/31 looks mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a few snow showers. High 38, low 27.
Saturday 2/1 will again by mostly cloudy. Could be a little ice/sleet early; watch for icy patches. High 42, low 30.
Sunday 2/2 looks cloudy and breezy. Chance of a few afternoon rain showers. High 44, low 31.
Monday 2/3 looks variably cloudy and a bit colder. Flurries or snow showers possible. High 36, low 23.
Tuesday 2/4 will be sunny and uneventful. High 35, low 19.
Wednesday 2/5 brings our next chance of potentially disruptive snow. More than six days before the event, models conflict. Right now I'd make the following preliminary prediction:
30% chance of a complete miss - little or no precipitation.
20% chance of a mixed event - starting out as rain, changing to snow, accumulating 2-4 inches.
35% chance of an all snow event - accumulating 4-8 inches.
15% chance of an all snow event - accumulating 8-12 inches.
(I think that adds up to 100%. Math teachers, please check my work.)
Thursday 2/6 looks breezy and cold with clouds and sun. High 33, low 18.
Friday 2/7 looks colder still (but again, not the breathtaking polar deathgrip of this week and early January). High 28, low 16.
Next weekend (2/8 and 2/9) still looks snowy, particularly Saturday night into Sunday. It's a long way off, though. A lot can change between now and then.
The following week looks cold (nearly normal cold, with highs in the low to mid 30s). Looking at February 13th and 15th for some interesting weather. And when I say interesting, I mean, No, god no, not again, ugh.
Stay tuned for updates!!
In my idle traversing of the fecund underbelly of the internets, I found a website called Star Whispers that features Chinese horoscopes for celebrities. And of course, it includes material about David Hasselhoff. These are all real quotations from that website. I have not doctored them in any way.
"David Hasselhoff is technically talented which shows both in his thinking and his activities. He loves to detangled the most diverse things with the head and the hands in order to put them back together perfectly afterwards. David Hasselhoff likes to work independently and possess a professional attitude."- "David Hasselhoff is the bedrock of society, the foundation of any enterprise. He is an organizer and manager. David Hasselhoff's approach to life and to problems is methodical and systematic. He is a builder and a doer. David Hasselhoff turns dreams into reality." [Monsoon's note: those first two sentences are among the most profound that have ever been uttered. It is definitely fodder for a bumper sticker. Nay, a religion.]
- "David Hasselhoff is profound, does not like to reveal himself and is hard to comprehend. Therefore David Hasselhoff has only a few close friends and often feels not at par."
- "David Hasselhoff needs someone encouraging and motivating him. Sometimes David Hasselhoff seems to be a riddle. David Hasselhoff's ideas are hard to comprehend. With the money of others David Hasselhoff deals well and even increases the wealth. Not so much with his own."
- "Politics, this different kind of acting interests him and if he plunges into it it is not to play the role of an extra. His liking of glamorous appearances is part of his dynamic personality. With such a mentality David Hasselhoff will bring it to fame in any resort."
- "David Hasselhoff is always on the search for challenges and sentimental adventures. The amorous conquests can be an opportunity to verify his seductive skills - which is necessary to calm his ego -, but also is a must for his development."
I mean, it's just magnificent and endlessly fascinating. (The website, but also works for The Hoff.)
Wind chill advisory for Tuesday morning = delays or cancellations?
Wind chill advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service for 1am to 10am Tuesday. It's already pretty cold and windy out there (it's about 20 degrees with wind chills in the teens as of 8pm).
Temperatures will plummet to about 2 by the morning commute; wind chill values will be in the -10 to -15 range. It will get up to a balmy 12 in the afternoon, with wind chills climbing to 0. So will we have another day off? A delay?
This is getting tricky now, since we cancelled earlier in January for extreme cold and people are starting to be all "our spring break is gone!" and "we will be going to school in July!" and "this is Obama's fault!" I mean, there's no evidence to support the last statement, but that doesn't seem to stop people otherwise.
So I think superintendents will be pretty conservative: they will use cancellations sparingly. Delays, maybe. But I have a feeling they're feeling pressure to get a full week of school in. And aside from the cold frigidness, there's nothing else looming this week.
Chance of delay Tuesday: 30%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday: 12%
Wednesday morning will be slightly less cold (about 6) and slightly less windy, so wind chills will be at about -5 during the morning commute. Temperatures will get all the way up to 24 on Wednesday.
Chance of delay Wednesday: 24%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 6%
The rest of the week looks gradually warmer; it looks to get above freezing by Friday. So whoo!
Morning snow showers possible on Saturday 2/1, then it'll get up to the upper 30s. Sunday, upper 30s too.
Next week, as of now, looks like a bit of a mess.
Bonus points for anyone who knows what movie this is from.(Which is another reason the deciders might be hesitant to call snow days this week.)
Freezing rain on Tuesday 2/4. Snow or sleet on Wednesday 2/5. Rain of frogs on Friday 2/7.
Alright, probably not. But do you know for sure it's not going to happen?
Next weekend (the 8th and 9th) looks potentially foul. But it's early.
And then it warms up for the middle of the month! Highs in the 40s! It will feel like the g.d. tropics.
Stay tuned for updates!
Saturday snow, another arctic blast, and what lies ahead...
Saturday's little clipper looks like it will bring some snow showers and stronger squalls (periods of intense snow) in the morning and afternoon. An inch or two of accumulation is likely (isolated areas could see three), but I don't see a big whoop with this one. Roads are pretty briny already, and most areas won't get enough snow to stick on the roads and make them treacherous.
So use caution if you're out and about tomorrow, but it's nothing that'll ruin your plans. Quite windy, too. High 30, low 9.
Cold and windy on Sunday with a snow shower or two in the late afternoon (no accumulation). High 22, low 14. Wind chills dipping below zero.
It now appears that Monday's potential snowstorm will miss us to the north, giving us only flurries and ushering in another polar vortex, which is a fashionable weather term, but which really just means that it will be super cold, frigid, bitter, thanks a pantload, Canada. Mostly cloudy and windy; becoming much colder at night. High 32, low 4.
Pals Richard Dean Anderson (sharing a kiss with a killer whale) and David Hasselhoff. This is from the late 1970s, I think. Both were doctor-portraying heartthrob soap stars who had wider ambitions: R.D.A. played Dr. Jeff Webber on "General Hospital" and The Hoff was Dr. William "Snapper" Foster on "Days of Our Lives." MacGyver (1985) and Knight Rider (1982) were not even a glint in their dreamy eyes.Tuesday actually has the potential to be the most bone-chilling day in this winter of unprecedented, breath-robbing, cruel-and-unusual balls-coldness. Partly sunny with a high of 12 and a low of -2. Those a real temperatures. Not wind chills. (The wind chills will be slightly below zero during the day, -15 overnight.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 30%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 18%
Partly sunny and bitterly cold again (but not as windy) on Wednesday. High 14, low 0.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 30%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 16%
Sunny and cold again on Thursday - high 24, low 14.
Good news: Friday's potential storm is another miss. High 30, low 18.
Next weekend looks cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers on Sunday. High of 30 on Saturday, then turning windy and actually climbing above freezing for a bit on Sunday.
The next chances of disruptive winter weather will be Tuesday 2/4 and Friday 2/7. And maybe Monday 2/10. Temperatures throughout the week will be cold, but not as cold. Highs in the upper 20s, that sort of thing.
Stay tuned for updates!!
Thursday delay? Weekend action? Next Friday? A walrus playing the saxophone??
Just wanted to see if you were paying attention on that last one. Although:
Anywho.
Thursday morning at 7am, it will be 3 degrees. Not much wind, so wind chills won't reach dangerous levels. Up to 19 in the afternoon. A few snow showers in the late afternoon and evening. It's not going to accumulate, but be aware that any snow in these frigid temperatures can make the going slippery.
Chance of delay Thursday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 14.675%
Breezy overnight and down to the single digits again. Friday will be sunny and frigid with a high of 17.
Chance of delay Friday, 22%
Chance of cancellation Friday, π%
Saturday looks cloudy and continued breezy with some flurries and snow showers, accumulating a coating to perhaps an inch. No big. High of 33.
Sunday will be cold again. Colder. High of 21. Can't rule out a snow shower or two. This is getting repetitive. Damn.
Monday brings the chance of another storm in the morning, but I think this is a miss. Turning out partly cloudy and breezy with a high of 28.
Sunny and colder on Tuesday with a high of 22 and a low of 9.
Not quite as cold on Wednesday, when the high will get all the way up to 28.
Thursday night into Friday, there's the chance for another storm - one very similar to the one that hit us yesterday. So my preliminary call is 6-8 inches, but a lot can happen between now and then in terms of track and whatnot.
In the words of Frank Vitchard (Luke Wilson) of the third-place Channel 2 news team in Anchorman, "Come on! Augh, god! This is gettin' to be ri-god-damn-diculous!"
And then ... the first weekend of February looks sunny and milder with highs in the upper 30s into the 40s. Might we be finished with the snow? I don't see anything major looming thereafter. But as always...
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!
5pm Tuesday update
As of this afternoon, it is still snowing. Philadelphia schools have cancelled for tomorrow already.
Here are the latest snow totals in the area, as of late this afternoon:
Reading, PA: 5.8 inches
Millersville, PA: 5.3 inches
Dover, York County, PA: 9.2 inches
Newark, DE: 8.2 inches
Croydon, Bucks County, PA: 8.8 inches
Exton, Chester County, PA: 5.2 inches
Northeast Philadelphia, PA: 7.1 inches
Middletown, NJ: 8.1 inches
I expect snow to wrap up by 7 or 8pm for Berks, and a bit later for Philly--maybe even after midnight.
Snow totals will be 6-8 inches for Berks, 8-10 inches for Philly. Locally higher amounts.
Tomorrow morning, about 7am, it will be 3 degrees with a -19 wind chill. Highs will only get up to 14 tomorrow. Snow's going to be blowing all over the place, particularly in the morning and early afternoon.
My call for school delays etc...
Wednesday delay, 93%
Wednesday cancellation, 77%
Please share your road observations / snow totals with me on the Facebook page. And let me know if you are delayed or closed for Wednesday 1/22!
Stay tuned...
Tuesday will be a snowy, frigid mess.
The models have shifted, and now it looks as though Tuesday's storm will be a bit more significant than I initially thought.
Light snow begins between 9 and 11am, then intensifies in the afternoon. Heaviest period of snow will be from about 1pm to 6pm. Then snow will taper by 9pm or 10pm.
Accumulations:
- 4-6 inches in Philadelphia's immediate suburbs and on out to Lancaster County, Berks, Lebanon, and Lehigh.
- 2-4 inches in areas north and west of that. The "line" between 2-4 and 4-6 will be quite sharp, and looks as though it will cut through Lebanon, Berks, and Lehigh Counties. So if and when that happens, areas in central and southern Berks would get 5 inches, while northern Berks only gets 2. Like that.
- 6-8 inches in extreme southern Pennsylvania, much of Philadelphia, south Jersey, and Delaware. Isolated areas in this band could approach a foot of accumulation--particularly south and east of Philadelphia.
Now about school cancellations and whatnot.
Because Hasselhoff. #becausehasselhoffConsiderations: the temperature will be 20 degrees around 7am, then fall to the mid teens by 5pm, and fall to the single digits overnight into Wednesday. Winds will start fairly light, but by 5pm the winds will be 15-20mph sustained, driving wind chills into the negative single digits. Wind chills by early Wednesday morning will be in the neighborhood of -12.
The roads will become slick even in light snow. In colder temperatures, road treatments like brine and rock salt are less effective. The evening rush on Tuesday will be treacherous: snowy and windy with drifting snow, low visibility, and temperatures in the teens.
I'm stalling.
Here are my predictions. Again, these are not meant to add up to 100%.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 10%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 60%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 75%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 65%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 30%
Stay tuned for updates!
Tuesday 1/21/14 snow chances - and beyond...
Some of the forecast models are picking up on a speedy little clipper system moving through on Tuesday, and suggesting that it could produce accumulating snow and travel delays for some.
It looks more like a quick dusting.
Here's what I see for the coming week:
Monday 1/20: More clouds than sun. Chilly with a high of 38. Widely scattered rain or snow showers possible in the afternoon. Winds will make it feel like 20s during the day, single digits at night.
Tuesday 1/21: Noticeably colder and mostly cloudy again. A clipper may leave an inch or two of accumulation in Delaware, Philly, and South Jersey, but I don't expect more than a dusting for the Berks region. This would be a mid-morning-to-mid-afternoon joint: 10am to 2pm? Something like that.
High 22, low 5. (Wind chills: single digits during the day, negative single digits at night.)
Chance of cancellation Tuesday: 15%
Chance of delay Tuesday: 7%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday: 19.5%
Gratuitous Hasselhoff pic.Wednesday 1/22: Sunny, breezy, and frigid. High 17, low 9.
Thursday 1/23: Partly cloudy and still a bit breezy. Afternoon snow showers or flurries can't be ruled out. High 26, low 11.
Friday 1/24: Hey, something different! It will be breezy and cold, but the sun will be out. High 26, low 12.
Saturday 1/25: Predominant clouds. Maybe a snow shower or two. High 32, low 18.
Sunday 1/26: Cold with sun and clouds brr. High 28, low 9.
Next week: Not quite as frigid, but still cold. Watch out for some snow possible on Tuesday 1/28 into Wednesday 1/29.
Stay tuned for updates as more model runs are released. If the storm tracks west (which is not looking likely, but it's possible), then Tuesday will be more ... notable.
Snow showers overnight, the colder and breezy, then really really @#*$ing cold.
Right into it.
A few snow showers overnight - I expect them between 11pm and 5am. Should be out of the area by the time anyone has to go anywhere on Saturday morning. Accumulation a coating to two-thirds of an inch. Turning out sunny, breezy, and cold on Saturday. High 34, low 22; wind chills in the 20s during the day and the teens at night.
Another round of snow showers and flurries overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. No accumulation from this one, but look out for slickness on the roadways if they get at all snow-covered. Windy as Rusty, Kramer's bean-eating horse, throughout the day: sustained winds of 20mph with gusts over 30mph. Highs in the mid 30s.
Yes, he included yet another picture of David G.D. Hasselhoff.Monday brings another chance of snow showers early, but don't even worry about it. Gets up to the upper 30s in the afternoon, then gets colder than a polar bear's undercarriage by the nighttime. Low will get down to 18.
Tuesday will be cold. Frigid, actually. High only getting up to 20. Overnight low of 6. Windy, too, so wind chills will dip below zero at night. Nothing like the -20 wind chills from early last week, but still.
On Wednesday we'll see continued frigid conditions. In fact, it will be as bitter as an olive soaked in tonic water. High in the upper teens, low in the middle single digits.
No, I will not stop inventing faux-folksy similes.
Thursday will be cold again. Highs in the low 20s and lows in the teens. But it will be sunny! So there's that.
Friday will be cold again. I mean, it's winter. What do you want? Temperatures that are as warm as a puppy on a quilt in front of a fire?
Alright, that's enough.
So it will be cold on Friday. For the fourth straight day, we will not get above freezing: highs in the mid 20s, lows in the teens.
Hasselhoff posing with (and ostensibly rocking out to) Ted Nugent's first solo album (after he left the Amboy Dukes). Nugent, incidentally, presents an irksome conundrum for me: he is a truly great guitarist, and some of his songs ("Stranglehold," "Free for All," "Wang Dang Sweet Poontang") are among my favorites of all time. And he's a straight-edge hero, famously eschewing drugs and alcohol when he was surrounded constantly with chances to imbibe. And yet he's also an inveterate misogynist (listen to some of his lyrics), a fierce opponent of any sort of gun control, a hunting freakazoid, a vocal Obama hater, an unapologetic bigot, and perhaps most disturbing of all, a registered Republican (and unofficial Tea Party mascot). So, as I said: I'm torn.On the weekend, temperatures may actually pop briefly above freezing! High on Saturday will be 33. Then Sunday's high will be back in the 20s.
You may have noticed that I haven't mentioned snow during this cold snap. We're actually in for a period of cold, dry air. I don't see any precipitation for the period from 1/21 through 1/28, actually. Monday 1/27 and Tuesday 1/28 look partly cloudy, breezy, and cold, with highs in the mid 20s and lows in the mid teens.
Then it gets a little bit interesting.
I see a snowstorm for Wednesday 1/29 into Thursday 1/30. And from Tuesday 2/4 into Wednesday 2/5. The middle of February looks provocative, too.
So the overall message?
A few minor clipper systems give us snow showers over the next few days. Next week will be super cold, so it's going to be important to do things like leave a trickle of water running through your taps, especially if you live in a big-assed drafty-assed old house with single-paned windows, and you would rather not have your pipes freeze.
For example.
So stay tuned for updates and keep warm!
Wednesday miss, but weekend threat?
The Wednesday system, which initially looked promising, now looks like a winter weather dud due to warmer air and storm track. But the models are hinting at something more substantial for Saturday. Here's the forecast:
Listen to David Hasselhoff's disembodied head.Tuesday 1/14: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers overnight and into early Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures holding steady in the mid to upper 40s.
Getting down to the upper 30s overnight.
Wednesday 1/15: Cloudy with a high of 44. Rain showers, mixing with and changing to snow showers in the late afternoon. If there is any accumulation, it will be very light. Coating to an inch. Low of 29 overnight.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 15%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 10%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 30%
Thursday 1/16: Becoming mostly sunny with a high of 39.
Chance of delay Thursday, 25%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 10%
I am too much of a wuss to get an actual tattoo, but if I ever did, it would be this one right here, on my forehead. Go ahead, judge me.Friday 1/17: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold with a high of 42.
Saturday 1/18 will be partly cloudy and colder with a high of 34. There could be some morning and afternoon snow showers, which could slicken roads quickly. Getting down to 20 overnight.
Sunday 1/19 and Monday 1/20 will be sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s, lows in the upper teens.
Some ice and snow possible for Tuesday 1/21. Also looking at Saturday 1/25 into Sunday 1/26 for a moderate snowfall. And the first week of February looks active, winter-weather-wise.
Stay tuned for updates!
Nuisance snow tomorrow, then mild with rain, then a week of thawage.
Upon investigation, I do not believe "thawage" (THô-ij), the process of thawing, is not, strictly speaking, a word. But I like it, so it stays.
I spent a portion of yesterday taking my dad for medical testing in Malvern (he's fine, but the procedure necessitated that he be anesthetized, so he needed a ride).
Whilst sitting in the waiting room, two older women sat just behind me, openly discussing their maladies and the specialists they have consulted for each. They spoke in faux-hushed tones (the kind of urgent whispers that are actually louder than normal speech). Soon the subject turned to why they had come to this place to consult with a gastroenterologist.
The first woman then said, "This doctor, I hear he's very good."
"Yes," the second woman responded, "he's the ass whisperer."
And at this, out of the corner of my eye, I saw both women nod sagely, then sit in reverent silence.
So, on to the forecast? Shall we?
A weak disturbance will move through tomorrow morning, and it would be barely worth mentioning if not for the timing. I expect light snow in the Berks-Lehigh areas, and some mixing with sleet closer to Philadelphia. We could see snow showers anytime from about 6am to 11am, so some morning commutes could be impacted. Temperatures will not rise above freezing until Friday afternoon, and the ground is very cold, so this precipitation will "stick" quickly. Still, it looks a bit spotty and light to me, and I don't think it will impact our normal action. Accumulations will be a coating to an inch.
Chance of delay Friday: 25%
Chance of cancellation Friday: 10%
Then we see temperatures soar to the upper 30s by late Friday afternoon and stay above freezing overnight to Saturday.
Saturday looks warmer (highs creeping into the 50s with warm southern breezes) but also quite rainy. Rain tapers to drizzle and light showers by Saturday evening.
Sunday will be colder (but nowhere near the polar vortex torture chamber of brrr we've been dealing with these past few days). Sunday and Monday will see some peeks of sunshine with highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows in the upper 20s.
More of the same on Tuesday. Colder Wednesday and Thursday (highs in the upper 30s, lows in the low 20s).
Next Friday (1/17) marks a glut of famous birthdays. The NBA's Dwayne Wade turns 31, Ray J (whom I will never forgive for making the Kardashians famous) turns 32, and Zooey Deschanel turns 33. Dancehall reggae's Shabba Ranks turns 47, First Lady Michelle Obama turns 49, serial overactor Jim Carrey turns 51, and Steve Harvey (some of whose daytime talk show I saw in the waiting room yesterday) turns 56.
There's more! Roots rocker and sometime actor Steve Earle turns 58, and comic/actor/visionary Andy Kaufman will celebrate his 64th birthday in seclusion in the Antilles, where he has lived since he faked his own death in 1984.
The Greatest, Muhammad Ali, turns 71, Maury Povich turns 74, and James Earl Jones turns 82. (This is the first time in recorded history that these three names have appeared in the same sentence.)
The incomparable Betty White will turn 91.
And Benjamin Franklin would be celebrating his 307th birthday on January 17th had he not died in 1790.
The weather on Friday will be sunny with highs in the 40s.
Next chances of wintry weather are 1/18 (a little ice?), 1/25 (snow), and 1/27 (snow).
Stay tuned for updates!
Dangerous cold update
Sunday night freezing rain update
My good people,
The warm air that was supposed to raise temperatures well above freezing this afternoon and evening has been kept to our south and east. It will eventually move in, raising temperatures to around 40 overnight.
Another storm, another arctic blast: Sunday, Monday, and beyond...
So it's cold out. 11 degrees as I type this. Only getting up to 25 today, then heading down to the teens tonight.
And then Sunday looked provocative initially, but it now appears that most of the precipitation we'll get on Sunday will be rain. We will likely see some sleet and freezing rain in the morning, but by noon at the latest, temperatures rise above freezing and this will become a rain event. Temperatures reach, and then hold steady in, the upper 30s to 40 for the rest of the day and evening.
Precipitation will linger into Monday morning, but it will be light, and I believe all of it will fall in the form of rain. We will have a rapid drop in temperatures, but that will occur after the precipitation is over.
In honor of the extreme cold, I give you the movie poster for the 1994 made-for-television movie Avalanche, starring David Hasselhoff, who plays--spoiler alert!--the bad guy. You can tell from the movie poster that he's the bad guy, though, because he is unshaven, wearing black, and lit by a demonic reddish glow. And how it says on the poster, "DAVID HASSELHOFF GOES BAD."So Monday will start in the mid to upper 30s, fall down through the 20s through the afternoon, and reach the teens by 8pm. And then temperatures continue to fall, all the way down to zero during the Tuesday morning commute. It will also be hella windy during all this, so when the temperature is in the upper 20s, it will feel like the lower teens; when the temperature is in the mid teens, it will feel like zero; and when it is in the single digits, expect wind chills in the negative single digits or colder.
This rapid freeze-up will cause some of travel issues as standing water freezes, so watch out for black ice and just plain non-racist ice on the roadways.
If you had snot icicles last night, on Tuesday morning, you will attempt to break off one of these snotcicles™ and your entire nose will come off. I have seen it.
In fact, on Tuesday the high will be 9 (but it will feel like -6 because of the wind) and the low will be -2 (which will feel like -18 because of the wind, but when you're in the negative digits, it's just subtle hues of icy hell, at that point).
Seriously, be careful in weather this cold. Hypothermia can set in more quickly than you realize. Check on the elderly. Whatnot.
Wednesday will be milder with sunshine! The high will reach a robust 22, with the brilliant sunshine making it feel like a balmy 24.
Oh, predictions about delays and such. We will not see any precipitation-related school closings, but the extreme cold on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings may prompt some delays, water-main breaks, things like that.
Possibility of delay Monday, 15%
Possibility of cancellation Monday, 10%
Possibility of early dismissal Monday, 20%
Possibility of delay Tuesday, 30%
Possibility of cancellation Tuesday, 25%
Possibility of delay Wednesday, 30%
Possibility of cancellation Wednesday, 10%
Cloudy on Thursday and Friday as another system comes through. This one looks moisture-starved, though, so it should only bring us snow showers. But it still bears watching.
Saturday will bring some precipitation, but temperatures should reach into the upper 40s, so most of that will be rain. But we'll have to watch the front and back ends of that one for some ice.
And that's it! Smooth sailing all the way through to spring. No more snow.
Alright, I have lied. But here's what I can say: I don't see anything close to the arctic deathgrip that will be seizing us on Tuesday.
Good day!
Thursday-Friday snowstorm
So I hope all of you had a fantastic New Year's Eve, surrounded by the people you love. I know I did.
Now to the next 72 hours, which will be an eventful period of weather.
The "sweet spot" of this storm appears to be New England (Boston and the surrounding areas will get well over a foot of snow from this system). But our area will not be spared completely. Here's my final (for now) call:
In this model projection, the "dry slot" appears as an area of dryness in a large field of precipitation.Light snow begins Thursday afternoon. But it'll just be light, and it will be intermittent. During this time we'll be in a "dry slot," which is a weather term, so any other non-weather implication would be inappropriate. A dry slot is an area of no precipitation--usually small, but sometimes larger--in a winter storm. So, say, Trenton will be getting snow, NYC, Boston, Scranton, and areas south and west, but southeastern Pennsylvania will be ... well, dry. And it will still be cold and windy (wind chills in the teens) throughout the day.
The steadier snow will begin in the evening (around 6 or 7?) and continue overnight into Friday morning (ending around 7 or 8am). The temperature on Friday will get no higher than 15, and it will be windy, so wind chills will be below zero. Overnight from Friday into Saturday, the temperature will actually reach the low single digits (maybe even zero), which is super cold, frigid, brr.
And then Sunday night into Monday looks snowy/icy, so we may have at least a delay on Monday.
So here are my calls, first for snow totals:
Lawrence, NJ and upstates PA and NJ, including the Poconos, 7-9 inches
Philadelphia and its immediate suburbs, South Jersey, northern Maryland, and Delaware, 3-5 inches
Berks County, the Lehigh Valley, Bucks County, Lebanon, 5-7 inches
And here are my calls for school closings:
Thursday school closing, 20%
Thursday delay, 10%
Thursday early dismissal, 40%
Friday school closing, 55%
Friday delay, 80%
Friday early dismissal, 10%
And a bonus preliminary call for Monday:
Monday school closing, 40%
Monday delay, 70%
Monday early dismissal, 15%
Stay tuned for updates!!
Auld Lang Snowstorm™ update
My good people,
As 2013 draws to a close, we are cold. If you plan on being outside for New Year's Eve, bundle snugly up or reconsider. Temperatures will be in the mid 20s with breezes sending wind chills into the teens.
We could also see a snow shower or two Tuesday afternoon, which will otherwise be mostly cloudy and breezy.
New Year's Day will see predominant clouds with some breaks of sunshine. High will be 33; low 24.
And then Thursday.
Model guidance continues to support a major winter storm. Highs will be around 32 on Thursday, and overnight low will be 14 thanks to arctic air from Canada. So this also points to higher snow totals. Snow starts late Wednesday night and really gets going Thursday morning. It will be windy and nasty during this storm: wind chills in the 20s during the day and below zero at night. Snow will taper late Thursday night, after which it will become even colder, prompting people to look at one another, shiver violently, and exclaim, "God damn it's cold!"
Here are the percentages, revised:
15% chance of a complete miss
20% chance of a 3-6 inch accumulation
40% chance of a 6-10 inch accumulation
25% chance of a 10-15 inch accumulation
For those hapless souls who have to go back to school on Thursday, here are my preliminary school closing predictions:
Thursday delay, 20%
Thursday cancellation, 70%
Friday delay, 65%
Friday cancellation, 40%
(Yes, I realize these percentages do not add up to 100%. They are not meant to. These figures are meant to represent the percent chance of each event. Like, in terms of odds. Math.)
Friday will be cold. Frigid, actually. Like, North Dakota cold. Minot, North Dakota.
(Alright, I looked this up. The high on Wednesday in Minot will be -3. That's negative three degrees. The low? -18. So, not quite Minot cold. But still.)
#alwayswithacar #hangloose #randomfarrahfawcetttshirt #skinnyjeans #hoffcoifBack to Friday. The high will be 16. The low will be 1. One! I shit you not. And it will be bitterly windy, so expect wind chills near zero during the day and in the negative single digits at night.
This is the kind of cold that will make you think you are being somehow punished. You will cry out and your tears will freeze right on your face. Icicles of snot. That sort of thing.
Saturday will be cold again, but less windy. And then Sunday will be a bit milder (high of 36!).
And then on Monday, when everyone else goes back to school, we may not, because of an icy mess.
This is going to be a snowy and icy and cold January, my friends. Gird your loins, and gird them well.
And stay tuned for updates!
Rain, then colder, then cold, then snow?
So here's just a quick update on the weather we can expect over the next week or so. I hope everyone is having a relaxing and safe holiday season!
Rainy Sunday, particularly in the late morning and early afternoon. Rain is heaviest during these times. Temperatures will hold steady in the upper 30s/lower 40s, so no threat of mixing or wintry precipitation, but still watch for wet roadways and some flooding. We could get an inch of rain.
Monday looks breezy and colder. High 37, low 18, but temperatures will feel like the 20s during the day due to the wind.
Tuesday and Wednesday look cold with more clouds than sun. High Tuesday is 30; high Wednesday is 26. Overnight lows in the middle teens both nights. The Mummers will freeze; there may be a flurry around, too. Not a cataclysmic snowstorm, but still, I'll take it.
Speaking of cataclysmic snowstorms: models are indicating a possible Nor'easter for Thursday (starting in the morning, lasting all day). It's very early now, and a lot could change. So it would be wanton speculation to give you snow totals yet. But hey, that's what I do: I wantonly speculate. Here are percentages for you, and these DO add up to 100:
25% chance of a complete miss
30% chance of an accumulation in the range of 3-6 inches
30% chance of an accumulation in the range of 6-10 inches
15% chance of an accumulation in the range of 10-15 inches
It will be cold (temperatures in the lower 20s during the storm), so this would potentially be all snow with higher snow ratios (the ratio of snowfall to liquid content). So, you know, stay tuned.
Friday looks cold with snow or flurries possible.
The weekend looks clear with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens.
The next potential winter storms I'm looking at are: 1/7, 1/13, 1/21, and 1/25. And 1/31.
And 2/5.
Then it quiets down.
Updates to follow!
Wet, windy, and warm ... then cold and dry. This is the Monsoon Martin year-end forecast extravaganza. Jubilee. Yuletide.
Compañeros y compañeras,
¡Feliz Navidad!
The rest of this forecast will be in English.
First, let me offer a personal shout-out to longtime friend and Monsoon supporter Bill "The Voice" Snelling, who enabled my Hoffophilia by giving me the most magnificent Christmas ornament since the dawn of time.
And now, the weather.
Sure was warm out there today (Saturday), wasn't it? Snow and snow and more snow in the last few weeks of fall, and then on the first day of winter, we get spring. Classic mix-up, Mother Nature.
Sunday will be windy and cloudy and warm, then wet too. Expect winds 15-20mph and temperatures climbing all the way to 68, shattering the record of 61 set in 1998. Scattered showers and drizzle in the afternoon, then steadier rain likely in the evening and overnight into Monday.
Hasselhoff in a Hawaiian shirt in honor of the balmy temperatures on Sunday. The top several buttons appear to be missing, which is a recurring sartorial issue for Sir Chest Hair of Hoffington.Cloudy and breezy with lingering showers on Monday, with temperatures starting in the 50s, falling through to the 40s in the evening, the 30s at night--and finally down into the 20s by Tuesday morning. So that's a 40-degree drop in only 24 hours or so.
Breezy and cold with times of sun and clouds on Tuesday, with a high of only 35. Snow showers (and even a widely scattered stronger squall) could move through in the afternoon. Overnight low gets all the way down to 16. There's that winter!
Wednesday will be sunny and cold. High 30, low 18. It will not be a white Christmas in this area, unless you are white people--in which case a white Christmas is unavoidable.
Thursday and Friday look a bit milder (highs around 38) with a few clouds around. Overnight lows in the mid 20s both nights.
Saturday and Sunday will be more of the same: highs in the mid to upper 30s, partly cloudy conditions, and overnight lows in the low to mid 20s.
The banner reads "New Delhi Call Center" in case you can't see it. And yes, those are four white guys dressed up like Indian guys, complete with dots on their heads. And this is from the January 1, 2013 parade. And this is real, I promise you, as evidenced by the clip below.Next week starts off in a similar fashion, then a small disturbance will pass through on New Year's Eve, bringing some light snow showers or flurries. Unfortunately, it does not seem like we'll have any rain or snow for the Mummers Parade, but it will be cold (temperatures in the teens and 20s) and breezy, so at least there's that. Although let's face it: they will be so loaded up on cheap beer that they won't feel a damned thing--and it's well-known that sequins absorb heat, so the frigidity will be all but lost on them.
The end of next week looks even colder--highs in the mid to upper 20s, lows in the lower teens--but I don't see any snow to worry about through the January 4th and 5th weekend.
And then...
I'm looking at potential winter weather events around January 7th, January 14th, and January 22nd. And a really active pattern is setting up for the first week of February.
So, you know...
stay tuned.
Saturday question mark.
At first I thought Saturday's potential snowfall was nothing--that the moisture would take an eastward track and all we'd get is some light rain mixed with snow. I was also wary of the impending storm, knowing that local media outlets tend to hype any hint of frozen precipitation as a looming apocalypse.
The storm, late Saturday afternoon.But the models are favoring a colder solution and a track farther inland, the meteorology has caught up to the hyperbole, and so I've changed my thinking.
Here's what I think about Saturday, as of Thursday night:
First of all, I see a wedge of cold air settling into our area. Tonight's low will get down to 11 and Friday's high will only reach 30. Temperatures on Saturday will hold fairly steady in the 28-30 range, so most of what falls will be frozen.
Light snow begins Saturday by 8 or 9am, then will fall more steadily starting around 11am. Snow will continue for the rest of the day. At some point, it will mix with (and change over to) sleet and freezing rain before ending overnight. The timing of that mixing is crucial, both to snow totals and road conditions. I am thinking this will happen later (especially in the Berks area), driving snow totals up. I don't think the changeover will happen until 9 or 10pm.
The storm as it begins to move out, pulling in some warmer air aloft and leading to some mixing.[A quick aside: The Weather Channel, the 24-hour weather doom merchant, has continued its practice of naming winter storms, begun last year. We just got through with Cleon and Dion; this one has been christened "Electra." Throughout the winter, we'll also be treated to Falco, Leon, and Quintus. It's like a 12-year-old boy just learned all about Greek and Roman mythology and then was assigned the task of naming these storms. Juvenile.]
As far as driving, Saturday morning should be fine, but the afternoon and evening will be rather dicey. Best to reconsider any plans that involve extensive travel.
So how much snow will we get? That depends on track and changeover timetable, but right now I'd say 4-6 inches in the Berks area, Allentown, Bucks County and central-northern New Jersey; 2-4 in Philly and its immediate suburbs, as well as south Jersey and New York City; and 6-8 inches or more in the Poconos, interior New York state, and much of New England.
The 1973 Buick Electra.(Note: isolated areas in Chester County, northern Lancaster County, and the Lehigh Valley look like they'll be in the "sweet spot" of this storm, and may see more than six inches.)
Winds will be calm to light throughout this storm, so we're not going to see any issues with blowing snow. And it will be a fairly wet-heavy snow.
Sunday turns out partly sunny and breezy, so that's nice. Then it gets cold again. Down into the teens Sunday night, then only up to 31 on Monday. Tuesday 12/17 brings another potential (but minor) chance of snow, and the following Saturday (12/21) looks like an icy mess.
David Hasselhoff, dog lover.
December 23rd and 24th have the potential for snow, and then the last week of December will be a frigid hellscape of yuletide joy: highs of 20, lows of 12, icy snow mounds every damn place.
Still looking promising for snow/ice on New Year's Day to screw up the Mummers Parade! Ha. Take that, you sequined shitheads.
As always, stay tuned for updates!
The rest of the week ... and Saturday snow?
My good people,
Mostly sunny the next few days, but very cold.
The temperature during tomorrow morning's commute will be only in the upper teens - so there will be icy patches. As a result, I am calling:
Chance of delay Wednesday, 65%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 7.23%
A model run for Saturday's storm. Notice that it slides east of us. I think most of what does fall will be rain...Highs on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will only be in the upper 20s. Especially windy on Thursday: wind chills will be near zero.
On Saturday, some models are pointing toward a big storm - 6 to 8 inches of snow and sleet. I think it's going to slide east, though, so we'll just see some light snow and rain showers. That's what I think as of now - stay tuned, of course, for updates.
Sunny and breezy on Sunday with highs in the upper 30s (but wind chills in the 20s). Sunny and windy to start next week: highs in the lower 30s, but windy, so wind chills in the mid teens.
Looking ahead, the December 22nd through 24th period is looking potentially snowy. And still, New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.
More snow tomorrow
Right down to the nitty gritty.
Snow arrives in the Reading area around 7 or 8am Tuesday. While we were worried about mixed precipitation with the last system, this one will be all snow. Temperatures will hold steady in the 28-30 range throughout the day.
Snow tapers, then ends by about 4 or 5pm Tuesday. Accumulations will be 2-4 inches (Reading, Allentown, Lancaster) and 3-5 inches (Philly and immediate suburbs, northern Delaware, and central and northern New Jersey. Isolated areas could receive six inches or more if a heavy band moves through.
Chance of delay Tuesday: 6%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday: 30%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday: 85%
It will get very cold overnight Tuesday into Wednesday (down to the upper teens), so ice will be an issue for the Wednesday morning commute.
Chance of delay Wednesday: 55%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 18%
The rest of the week looks sunny, brisk, and cold, but no more precipitation. Highs will be in the upper 20s; lows in the teens.
Seeing a lot of potential winter weather events reaching into the future, as well.
Stay tuned for udpates!!