So what's up for this weekend?
I'll tell you what.
Friday, December 6th: Starting out rainy and drizzly and foggy. Temperatures actually drop throughout the day - from 50s in the morning, through the 40s in the afternoon, and finally through the 30s in the evening. Expect rain picking up again after noon, then continuing on and off through the evening and into the night. Maybe mixing with a little sleet overnight, but it'll be tapering by then, so no accumulation. Do be careful if you're out driving late Friday night or early Saturday morning, though.
Saturday, December 7th: breezy and colder with partly sunny conditions. High of only about 40, but it'll feel like the 20s. Overnight lows in the low 20s.
Hasselhoff + ring tailed lemurs = super great party time.Sunday, December 8th: Snow develops about 1 or 2 in the afternoon as temperatures are at (or just a hair above) freezing. Some places could see an inch or two of accumulation. Then the temperature will begin to rise by the evening and the precipitation will mix, then become all rain. It's not terribly heavy precipitation, so whatever falls won't be a big whoop.
Monday, December 9th: Temperatures will be in the mid 30s by Monday morning's commute, so we probably won't see a lot of school disruptions. Rain tapers throughout the morning. The day will be overcast but a bit milder, with highs in the mid 40s.
Chance of delay Monday, 35%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 7.5%
Tuesday, December 10th: Chance for rain and snow in the overnight hours, into Tuesday morning. Turning out breezy, cloudy, and colder (again). High just 34. Low Tuesday night, 18.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 28%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 14.1%
Wednesday, December 11th: Plenty of sunshine but cold. Damn cold. High of 30 and breezy. Low of 19.
Thursday, December 12th: Sunny and continued cold. High 32, low 16.
Friday, December 13th: Partly cloudy and breezy with highs in the mid to upper 30s. (Balmy!) Low of 20.
Next weekend: Cloudy and rainy, particularly on Sunday. Highs in the mid 40s.
The following week: Rainy to start, then clearing and seasonable - highs in the low 40s, lows in the upper 20s.
Looking ahead: Snow or ice on Christmas!! And a major storm in the wings for New Year's Day (I am really rooting for that one so the odious Mummer buffoonery is shat upon).
Stay tuned for updates!
This is a follow-up to my original post. The purpose of this follow-up is to offer more specific information about the timing and nature of the upcoming storm.
A little bit of snow starts around 2 or 3 Sunday afternoon, moving southwest to northeast. There's not a ton of moisture in this system, so any precipitation will be light to moderate. Mixes with sleet by around 7 or 8pm, then changes over to all sleet. By 3am-ish, I expect that temperatures will rise above freezing and any lingering precipitation will fall as rain. Rain tapers by late morning.
Chance of delay Monday: 25%
Chance of cancellation Monday: 8%
Tuesday the 10th is actually looking more interesting in terms of snow and delays as another system moves in late Monday night. There's the potential for a 2-4 inch accumulation from this system, as well as the cancellation of school - due more to timing than severity.
Chance of delay Tuesday: 12%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday: 31%
And then December 15th-16th is looking good for a potential snow/freezing rain event.
Stay tuned for updates!
P.S. If you have a specific question about location or timing, just email me.
Turkeygeddon® 2013
The moniker may not be perfect, but I'm determined to make it stick.
So here's my final (pre-storm) call:
Rain begins early Tuesday afternoon. There's been some talk of mixing at the beginning of the event, but I think a variety of factors will conspire to give us all rain on the front end. Temperatures will hold steady in the mid thirties, so a slick spot or two cannot be ruled out.
Rain will become steady, then heavy, then soaking. Heaviest rain falls Tuesday 7pm through Wednesday 10am.
Temperatures will actually rise into the lower 40s overnight, so I think the concerns about "back-end" snow (precipitation that falls as snow when the system moves out and the temperature drops) are overblown. Rain will taper throughout the afternoon and early evening. We could see a coating of snow, but this system won't have enough juice left to give us measurable accumulation.
Wind will pick up throughout the day Tuesday and will get strongest behind the storm: 20-30mph with gusts over 40.
My most significant concerns with this storm are flooding--most areas will get 2 to 3 inches of rainfall--and wind damage.
Travel hazards: ponding water on the roadways during the height of the storm, low visibility, some fog, and a rapid freeze-up Wednesday night, when temperatures will plunge through the 20s.
Thanksgiving Day will be mostly sunny, windy, and cold with a high of 34. The low overnight (Thursday into Friday) will be 18. So all you bargain hunters, bundle up!!!
Stay tuned for updates when and if there are changes as the storm moves through...
Thanksgiving travel nightmare Nor'easter panic oh my god.
So ... it's kind of brisk out there. I'll talk to you about this arctic blast in a moment, though; right now, you're interested in whether or not we'll have the titular storm.
Here's what I think, 72 hours out:
Rain and drizzle arrive Tuesday afternoon, then may mix with some wet snow overnight as temperatures dip down toward freezing. Rain tapers considerably throughout Wednesday morning and afternoon.
Models are in considerable disagreement on a solution for this potential Nor'easter, but I think the eastern solutions--the ones in which the bulk of the moisture drifts out to sea--are more feasible.
I don't see a lot of travel issues for the day before Thanksgiving, other than the fact that people drive like assholes even more vigorously in any kind of precipitation. Rain is out of here by Wednesday around 6, then it gets a little windy (and cold) behind the system.
So here's the forecast:
Sunday 11/24 will be partly cloudy and really, super windy with an unseasonably frigid high of just 31. (Sustained winds will reach 20mph--with 30mph gusts--so wind chills will be in the teens). So it's not the day to, say, spraypaint little hoofprints on the parking lot outside your high school. It's the day to hunker in the snug by the fire with the wife and the dog and the papers. Low Sunday night into Monday could set a record (the current record is 17 set in 1938). So that's g.d. cold.
It's Garthe Knight, Michael's evil twin.Monday 11/25 will be cold, too: high of just 36 with partly sunny skies. Wind will be less assy, though.
Tuesday 11/26 is when the aforementioned Turkeygeddon® may or may not happen, but no it won't. Starting out partly cloudy with temperatures reaching in to the low 40s, then clouding up and raining. Temperatures will dip to 32 overnight, so there will be some mixing, but I do not expect measurable accumulation or travel foulness.
Wednesday 11/27 will see rain mixed with a little wet snow, tapering throughout the morning and afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 30s and it will be breezy behind the system. Overnight lows will dip in to the low 20s.
Thursday 11/28 is a holiday known popularly as Thanksgiving, but which derives from the Algonquin Toppoposh-ósquonk, which roughly translates to "Is this bountiful feast just a thinly-veiled attempt to lull us in to a false sense of security, white man?" Expect the following weather on this day: sunny, windy and cold, with highs only in the mid 30s and brisk northwest winds. Lows dip down in to the teens.
Friday 11/29 is popularly known as Black Friday since it is the day on which retailers expect to get into the "black," or profit, but which actually derives from the Iroquoian Tehalihwákhwa' Kahòntsi, which transliterates to "please allow me to follow my giving-of-thanks festival and bask in the spirit of Christmas by trampling total strangers to death in a frenzied, pre-dawn attempt to get a $49 flat screen television." Sunny and cold. High of 39, low of 20.
Saturday 11/30 has become known in recent years as Small Business Saturday so that people who flocked to big box retailers on Black Friday can assuage their consciences by purchasing overpriced, hand-crafted gewgaws down at the local boutique. Partly cloudy and breezy; high 42, low 26.
Sunday 12/1 is popularly known as Holy shit I overspent again Sunday. It is a sad, sad day. Sunny; high 45, low 28.
Monday 12/2 is a dual holiday: it is both Cyber Monday and the first day of Deer Season in Pennsylvania, for which we have off school, and no, I am not kidding. We really have off for the first day of Deer Season. James Carville famously said, "Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between." We can quibble about whether this statement is unfairly stereotypical or paints Pennsylvanians with too wide a brush. But we have off school for the first day of deer hunting season.
Sunny and colder to start, then clouding up at night. May be some freezing rain and snow overnight, actually. Could impact school schedules for Tuesday 12/3. So stay tuned for updates.
The rest of the first week of December will be cold (highs in the 30s, lows in the teens) and overcast generally. I'm looking at a system that could bring us snow in the Thursday 12/5 - Friday 12/6 range.
Becoming more seasonable thereafter: highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s. Stay tuned for updates...
Update as of Sunday evening: it appears now that the track of the Nor'easter will place the mid-Atlantic region in its path.
However, I expect this system to give us nothing but rain.
We'll get a lot of rain - 2 to 3 inches in some places - but other than a wee bit of mixed wet snow overnight, that's it.
So the most significant threats are from the wind (10-15mph Tuesday night, 15-20mph on Wednesday) and from flooding in some places. The heavy rain is likely to cause some travel woes (the aforementioned piss-poor driving, delayed flights, isolated flash and coastal flooding).
As ever, stay tuned for updates...
Mild start to the week, then colder...
Forecast!
Mild with a few showers overnight. High winds developing overnight, then continuing breeziness on Monday. High Monday in the mid to upper 60s. There may be some issues with scattered power outages due to the wind (branches down and whatnot). Low Monday night will be in the mid 30s.
Tuesday will be much colder. Seriously, bundle up. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s, but with persistent breezes, it will feel like the 30s. Overnight low of 28.
Got to teach this soliloquy to a new crop of students on Friday. I saw a sea of profound boredom, but a few glimmers of wonder. It's these glimmers that keep me in the profession...Wednesday looks like more of the same: high in the mid to upper 40s, but with nearly calm winds, so that'll be nice. Oh, and sunshine. Lots of sunshine.
A little bit milder on Thursday - high of about 52 with partly cloudy skies. Continue that for Friday - high of about 54 with partly cloudy skies.
Friday night, another front comes through. Rain and drizzle, maybe even some fog into Saturday morning. Saturday is much colder again - high of only 44. Lows in the mid 20s.
Sunday and Monday will be ever colder: highs will struggle to reach 40, and lows will be around 24.
The remainder of next week looks kinda foul, actually. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s, clouds will predominate, and there's even the potential for a little bit of mixed precipitation in the period from Wednesday 11/27 through Friday 11/29. (I realize that's right over the Thanksgiving holiday, but I do not expect travel to be disrupted. Stay tuned for updates...)
Next weekend (Saturday 11/30 and Sunday 12/1) look kind of deja-vu-y. Highs around 40, overcast and drizzly conditions.
The first week of December looks cold (highs in the upper 30s, lows in the low 20s), but no snow.
And thereafter? I'm looking at an interesting system in the range of December 7th through 9th. Otherwise, you know, cold. I mean, it's winter. (I know it's not actual winter yet, but it's meteorological winter as of 12/1.)
As always, stay tuned for updates!
Will we or won't we?
So this Nor'easter for next week ... is it actually going to happen? Will we have a mid-November 2013 repeat of the Halloween storm of 2011?
Don't strap on your showshoes just yet, there, Amundsen.
Here's what to expect:
Monday 11/11: Breezy and increasingly cloudy during the day with highs in the mid 50s. When the sun goes down at 2:30pm (alright, it just seems that early; it's actually 4:50pm), we'll see more cloud cover and temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. Could be a few snow showers toward morning.
Why, you ask? I turn to Robert Kennedy for the answer: "There are those who look at Hoffs the way they are and ask why? I dream of Hoffs that never were and ask why not?"Tuesday 11/12: Breezy and colder with a morning snow shower or two. Clouds will break a bit toward afternoon, but temperatures will only reach a high of 43. Lows overnight into Wednesday morning will be in the mid 20s. Freaking brr.
Chance of school delay, 15%
Chance of school cancellation, 2.5%
Wednesday 11/13: Partly sunny and cold. High will struggle to reach 40. In fact, I don't even think it's going to get there. Let's call it 39. That's all we get. Back into the mid 20s overnight, too.
Thursday 11/14: Sunshine and milder, with the high reaching a balmy 51. Overnight lows still around freezing (32).
Friday 11/15: Sunny again. Highs in the mid 50s. Really nice fall day, you know? Leaves falling off the trees, crisp air, shit like that. Cornucopia of autumnal beauty.
The weekend: More of this - sunny with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Next week: Chilly (highs in the 40s) and rainy Monday and Tuesday. Then colder with highs reaching only into the low 40s. Overnight lows will dip into mid 20s again. If you haven't turned your heat on yet, I don't even know what to tell you. You're going to freeze your ass off, is what.
Next weekend: We're talking about the 23rd and 24th right here. They seem nice. A bit of cloud cover, highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s. Watching the potential for some ice Saturday night. Will keep you posted.
Thereafter: We're talking about the last week of November and into December right here. Nice, you know? What do you want me to say? It's hard to predict so far away. That's, like, three weeks! If someone tells you he or she knows beyond 5 to 7 days what the weather is going to be he or she is bulling your shit. (No, that's not it at all. It's not a separable phrasal verb. He or she is bullshitting you, is the way to say it. Anyway: full of shit.)
Stay tuned for updates!
Windy rainy cloudy sunny chilly windy cold (+ winter outlook).
My good people,
These titular adjectives are the conditions we'll see over the next 48 hours: windy, rainy, and cloudy, then sunny and chilly, then windy and cold. Ah, autumn...
Here's what to expect:
Mostly cloudy and very windy today with periods of rain, ending by around noon. Still unseasonably warm with highs reaching into the low to mid 70s. At kickoff tonight (Mifflin at Weiser), we'll be in the low 60s with diminishing winds. By the end of the game, we will be in the upper 50s.
Clouds mixed with sunshine and breezy tomorrow with a shower or two in the afternoon. Continued unseasonably warm with highs in the mid 60s. Getting chilly overnight, with highs in the low 40s.
Sunday 11/3 looks to be far chillier. It will be sunny but still breezy, and highs will only make it to the upper 40s. Sunday night will be cold as balls (speaking of which, see inset). We'll see clearing skies, diminishing winds, and temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 20s.
Next week starts out partly sunny and continued cold with highs again in the upper 40s. Overnight lows Monday will be around freezing (32°F). Tuesday will be sunny and a little more seasonable with highs in the mid 50s.
Wednesday 11/6 looks to start out sunny and gorgeous and reach a high in the mid 60s. Some rain develops at night and wraps up Thursday morning, after which temperatures will drop once again. Expect highs on Friday and Saturday to be in the low to mid 50s; it will be sunny and breezy both days.
Senhor Testiculo - "Mr. Balls" - is the real, actual, swear-to-God testicular cancer awareness mascot for Brazil's national cancer organization, Associação de Assistência as Pessoas com Câncer (AAPEC). It is a real thing and now you have seen it and you can't unsee it. You're welcome.Cloudy with some rain on Sunday 11/10 and Monday 11/11; highs in the low 50s.
The rest of that week looks chillier, with daytime highs in the mid 40s and overnight lows in the mid 20s.
So ... when will it snow? And what will the winter be like? Lots of snow days? Delays?
As many of you know, I consider long-term forecasting to be a fruitless folly, as it seeks to predict how an almost limitless array of meteorological factors will interact. A sound long-term forecast can be completely derailed if the jet stream dips south unexpectedly or we are the victims of some other unforeseen quirk of Mother Nature.
But winter forecasts are all the rage, and today is the first day of November (I know that because I heard my first Christmas carol in the grocery store this morning), so here goes.
According to the AAPEC, Mr. Balls has become "something of a celebrity" wherever he goes. "Both children and adults loved taking pictures with the mascot, a friendly snowman in the shape of a testicle." Disclaimer: testicular cancer is no laughing matter, and awareness can only be positive. But it takes a lot of ... nerve to create a human-sized, lifelike, unnervingly-detailed scrotum as the face of your publicity campaign.The winter solstice is December 21st and the vernal equinox is March 20th, so these dates mark the beginning and end of winter -- but meteorological winter is traditional considered as running from December 1st to February 28th.
Mild temperatures to begin the season, and I don't see any real snow potential until the last week in December.
January will actually be the opposite of what we're used to: milder to start, then getting colder and wetter.
February is the coldest and snowiest.
Over all: a little light. Not the blockbuster winter we have been wishing for...
Total snowfall: 22-25 inches.
School delays: 4.
School cancellations: 3.
Stay tuned for updates!
A blunk of rainsomeness.
My friends,
Since you became wet when you walked outdoors this morning, you already know that it is raining. If not, spoiler alert: it is raining.
See, look.
So how long will this blunk of squally, tempestuous weather last? To answer this question, we must discuss the origin of the moisture.
The storm contains some tropical elements - the remnants of Troical Storm Karen. But while we will see rain that is sometimes heavy, the impacts from this system should be minimal.
We will be besieged by gloomy weather through Saturday as a high pressure system keeps the storm churning just off the coast. Our immediate area (Berks) will be on the northern edge of the affected region. Here's the forecast, then, for Berks:
Thursday 10/10: Rain, heavy at times - the soakingest output of this storm for us. All day, all night. Temperatures hold steady in the mid 50s.
Friday 10/11: Overcast with rain and showers - and drizzle at times. Moist and dismal, though. Dreary and miserable. Temperatures may creep into the low 60s, but generally it will still be cool. Maybe a little breezier, too.
The Hoff reminds you: do not forget your umbrella. Lush, sexy hair does not simply happen by accident; it must be nurtured, coaxed, admired, and yes--protected from the elements.Saturday 10/12: Cloudy, misty, drizzly. Maybe a shower or two. Not a complete washout, but not a stroll-through-the-meadow type of day either. High in the mid 60s.
Sunday 10/13: Still cloudy, chance of a shower or two. Or some drizzle. Clearing a bit later, though. We may even see a few peeks of sunshine. High in the upper 60s.
Monday 10/14: Indigenous Genocide Day will be partly sunny with highs in the upper 60s to near 70.
More of the same for Tuesday 10/15 through Thursday 10/17.
Next Friday and Saturday look rainy again, I regret to inform you. But:
Sunday 10/20 will be a sunny, crisp, resplendent fall day. High in the low 60s with a stiff breeze. Overnight lows plummeting well down into the 40s (and maybe even the upper 30s!).
The following week will be chillier (highs in the 50s, lows in the 40s).
No snow on the horizon. I see a slow onset for winter this year: below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures over all in December. January, though, could pack a wallop.
Stay tuned!
High pressures dominates the first weeks of fall...
Hey there,
It's your old pal Monsoon here. Just thought I'd give you an update on the weather.
Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday will be partly sunny and pleasant with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 50s. (Saturday night into Sunday and Sunday night into Monday will see temperatures dip into the 40s, especially in rural areas.)
Wednesday 10/2 will be unseasonably warm with highs in the low 80s.
Thursday 10/3 will be even more unseasonably warm with highs in the mid 80s.
Friday 10/4 will see some clouds mixed with sun and highs in the upper 70s.
Next weekend looks variably cloudy and seasonably cooler with highs in the low 70s. There's the chance of a passing shower or two on Sunday.
Snow is likely on Saturday 10/12--
Naw. Just joshin'. We won't see temperatures dipping below freezing until mid-November, the way it looks now.
I'm working on a winter 2013-14 forecast (that's meteorological winter, December 1st through February 28th). Seasonal forecasts are generally a fool's errand, and involve a significant amount of guesswork. But it's what I do, so I will do it.
Unseasonably cool and dry...
...and that will continue for the foreseeable future.
After last week's heat wave, the weather over the past few days has been perfect: low humidity, highs in the low 80s, gentle breezes. The absolute best weather possible for this time of year.
This weekend will be a little hiccup in that trend. Expect increasing cloudiness and humidity throughout the day, with a scattered thunderstorm possible late this afternoon or this evening. Scattered storms are also possible on Sunday, which will be overcast and humid with temperatures generally holding steady in the 70s. When the front arrives late Sunday, some places will see heavy rain, and most everyone is likely to see some rain. (Rainfall totals will range widely from less than a half inch to as much as two inches.)
Best place to keep up with the action is Weather Underground's WunderMap®.
Sir David Hasselhoff snuggles with a wombat at a zoo in Australia. Yes, I have knighted him, because he's the Knight Rider, and yes I can do that. It's done. He's a knight.Then it goes back to being awesome: highs in the low 80s, sunny, low humidity, light breezes for the duration of the week. Lows will be in the lower 60s and may even reach the upper 50s Monday night into Tuesday. (There's a small chance of storms on Thursday, but that seems sketchy to me. Stay tuned for updates.)
Next weekend (the first weekend in August) looks iffy again, with showers and storms possible, particularly on Saturday.
But then the following week (August 5th to the 9th) is going to be great again: mostly sunny with highs in the upper 70s, lows in the upper 50s, breezy. (We may have to deal with showers toward the end of the week, but let's not worry about that just now.)
And then...
AND THEN...
AND THEN...?
more of the same. (Tricked you there, didn't I? You thought I was going to say "back to the heat and humidity and the sweating and the sopping." But no.)
In fact, I don't see temperatures getting into the 90s again until the very end of August!
So enjoy, my excellent readers. You deserve it.
Your love is like a heat wave!
False.
Unless Martha and the Vandellas are lamenting a suffocating, nauseating boyfriend in whose presence one can develop dementia, cramping, or heat stroke, the 1963 hit song “(Love is Like a) Heat Wave” is grievously inaccurate.
Here in the Northeast, a “heat wave” is typically defined as a period of three or more consecutive days on which the temperature (or, alternatively, the heat index) reaches 90 degrees or above. Get ready for TV news interviews with people who work outside ("How are you dealing with this heat?" "Drinkin' plenty of water, I guess."), tips from the CDC on how to deal with the heat ("Drink plenty of water") and ominous dark orange and red blotches on weather maps, Excessive Heat Warnings, and all the rest.
In all seriousness, though, extreme heat kills more people in this country each year than any other weather event--more than hurricanes, more than tornadoes, more than floods. So be sensible: check on the elderly, don't leave pets in cars, stay hydrated, shit like that.
By any measure, but certainly by the definition cited above, this week will bring a heat wave.
Sunday 7/14 will see a high of 91 with moderate humidity, pushing heat index readings into the upper 90s.
Monday 7/15 is when the heat wave starts cranking. The high will reach 94 with elevated humidity, pushing heat indices into the 101 range. Look for isolated thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening.
Tuesday 7/16 will be hot and humid with hazy skies. Highs will again be 94, with heat indices around 102.
Wednesday 7/17 will be worse, so if at all possible, don’t schedule any extended outdoor activities today. High 96, heat index 104.
Thursday 7/18 will be just as nasty as Wednesday, so again, stay indoors as much as possible. High 97, heat index 104.
Friday 7/19, hot and humid. Afternoon storms possible. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. High 94, heat index 101.
Saturday 7/20, a weak cold front comes through and produces some afternoon storms. Whoop-de-frickin-do. High 90.
Sunday 7/21, mostly sunny and a bit less oppressive, but kind of humid. High 86.
Next week looks stormy, overcast, and humid with highs generally in the mid 80s.
Stay cool!
What the hinky hell is "probability of precipitation"?
My fine friends,
For decades, weather forecasts have included "probability of precipitation," which is expressed as a percentage. Today, for instance, there is a 30% chance of storms. Same percentage tomorrow (Wednesday). On Thursday and Friday, though, it's 60% during the day and 50% at night. More of the same percentage horseshit over the weekend.
(Expect temperatures to reach above 90 degrees Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. We won't really see a break in the humidity until after the Independence Day holiday.)
Further complicating matters in forecasting precipiation are terms like "scattered," "isolated," "widespread," "severe," and "strong" when referring to storm potential.
Fear not: Uncle Monsoon is here to sort it all out for you.
(Wait. That sounds creepy, somehow. Let me try that again.)
Fear not: your special weather friend Monsoon is here to make everything al
(Even creepier.)
Fear not: I will explain.
First, the percentages. A 30% chance of storms doe not mean that it will storm 30% of the time. It also does not mean that 30% of the places in the forecast area will see storms.
Instead, the Probability of Precipitation (PoP) describes the chance of precipitation occurring at any point in the forecast area. It's a mathematical formula:
PoP = C x A (where C = the confidence that measurable precipitation will fall somewhere in the forecast area, and A = the percentage of the area that will receive measurable precipitation, if it gets any at all)
So, for example, with thunderstorms, a forecaster typically knows that they are going to occur (A = 100) but determines that two-fifths of the forecast area will receive precipitation. This is typical with pop-up thunderstorms (those that are spotty and arise on hot, humid days and unstable atmosphere) rather than storms associated with a cold front, which are much more likely to strike a larger area. In the example, then, the PoP is 40%.
Let's say that a forecaster is only half sure that precipitation will occur at all, making A = 50. But the forecaster believes that if it does rain, it will happen in 60% of the coverage area. So that would make PoP = .5 x .6 = 30%.
An more confusing explanation of this percentage is as follows: a 60% PoP means that if the weather conditions theoretically occurred ten times, it would rain six out of those ten times.
The bottom line: when there is any chance of thunderstorms expressed in the forecast and your plans include being outside at any point, keep an eye on the Doppler radar. Light green is light rain; medium rain is medium rain; dark green is chubby rain. Yellow is a deluge. Orange is a downpour. Light red is a storm. Dark red is a heavy storm. Pink is a really, super bad storm. Purple and violet indicate possible tornadic activity, so don't shit around with that. Get in the basement or a windowless room until it blows over.
The best radar, I think, is:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx
A quick note about the terminology you'll hear from meteorologists about the likelihood of rain or storms (isolated, scattered, widespread, etc.). Here's how to sort it all out:
Isolated means less than 15% of the forecast area will see this kind of weather.
Widely scattered means 15-24% will see it.
Scattered means 25-54%.
Numerous or widespread means 55 to 70% chance that the area will see this kind of weather.
Prevalent means 71-72%
Pervasive means 73-75%.
Ubiquitous means 76-85%.
Omnipresent means 86-95%.
Fully rife means 96-100%.
Alright, I may have made up the last five. But the other ones are spot-on.
In future installments here at http://monsoonmartin.squarespace.com, we will tackle the difference between "partly cloudy" and "partly sunny" (and other permutations denoting cloud cover) as well as the difference between "showers" and "rain."
Stay tuned!
Supa Moon! ... and North West
A supa moon from last year. Spoiler alert: the upcoming supa moon will look a lot like this.Supa Moon. When the moon is full and at the closest point in its orbit (around the Earth, for those unfamiliar with astronomy), the moon appears much larger and brighter than normal. It's also called a "perigee moon" because of the closest-to-the-Earth orbit thing. It's going to be 14 percent larger (and not one percent more) and 30 percent brighter.
The Supa Moon is not to be confused with the Pink Moon (a full moon occurring in April, or a great little apocalyptic song by Nick Drake), the Harvest Moon (a full moon occurring in September, or a great Neil Young song), a Beaver Moon (a full moon occurring in November, which also sounds somehow inappropriate), or a Blue Moon (the occurrence of two full moons in a single calendar month, or a Rodgers and Hart standard memorably reimagined by the Marcels as a doo-wop scorcher in 1961).
To see the Supa Moon, go outside on Saturday evening, Sunday morning, or Sunday night, open your eyes, and look up. Or, if you are housebound or selenophobic (afraid of the moon) or agoraphobic (afraid of open spaces), watch it from the safety of your computer.
In other weather-themed news, Kimye have named their daughter "North," which gives her the name "North West." I am assuming it's an homage to the Hitchcock classic "North by Northwest" and a more oblique allusion to Shakespeare's Hamlet: "I am but mad north-northwest; when the wind is southerly, I know a hawk from a handsaw." So hopefully they'll select the middle name "Bynorth" to complete the reference. Anyway, the kid has Kanye West and Kim Kardashian as parents, so a goofy name is the least of her worries.
Anywho, lovely weather we're having, innit? Here's what to expect:
Saturday 6/22, sunny and seasonably warm, much like today. High 86, low 63.
Sunday 6/23, mostly sunny and warmer; slight chance of some pop-up evening thunderstorms. High 89, low 66.
Monday 6/24, partly cloudy, hot and more humid. More (but not all) areas will see thunderstorms in the late afternoon. I will be complaining about the weather on this day. Believe that shit. High 92, low 68.
Tuesday 6/25, hazy, hot, and humid. Afternoon thunderstorms. Blech. High 93, low 69.
Wednesday 6/26, warm and humid! Thunderstorms. Balls. High 90, low 68.
Thursday 6/27, overcast with lower temperatures, but still humid. And you know what they say: it's not the heat, it's the humidity, that will god damned kill you. High 84, low 66.
Friday 6/28, partly cloudy and humid with thunderstorms as a strong cold front moves through. High 83, low 64.
Saturday 6/29, humid early with a lingering shower or thunderstorm, then clearing. High 82, low 60.
Sunday 6/30, relief! Sunny and gorgeous. High 80, low 56.
Beyond, the humidity and rain crank up again. The first week of July looks rainy and unstable at the moment. The another heatwave for the weekend of 7/6 and 7/7. Then more hotness. You know: summer.
Dangerous weather on tap for Thursday 6/13
Friends,
The actual baby praying mantis I found bounded away before I could snap his picture. This is a picture I found online, but that's the spitting image. This is not my finger.I met a baby praying mantis this evening whilst doing the yardwork. He was somewhat more skittish than the adult praying mantises I have known (like Manny, who used to hang out in our yard back in Adamstown). Picture a teeny, translucent praying mantis. Adorable!
But I have digressed even before I have begun. Serious weather is in our immediate future. Here are the deets:
The storm headed for our area is hammering the midwest right now. It will be a strong Nor'easter marked by a deep low and warm weather convection. In plain language, that means we will be at an elevated risk of severe weather.
Expect showers to arrive overnight, becoming steadier by 8 or 9am Thursday. The heaviest rain will be from late morning to about 8pm. Rain will taper overnight into early Friday morning.
Many places will see two inches of rain, and isolated areas will approach three inches. The composition of the storm will bring several complications:
- The aforementioned heavy rain will bring the potential for street and small-stream flooding.
- The potential development of derechos (thanks to Megan King for bringing this term to my attention), which are downbursts of destructive straight-line winds. A damaging swath of hurricane-force winds can accompany a line a severe thunderstorms. The most serious risk for this type of event is downed trees and power lines (due to the ground saturation). Again, this is not inevitable, but conditions will be favorable for derecho development.
- The potential development of tornadoes.
- Severe thunderstorms, some of which could feature hail, most likely in the late afternoon or evening.
- Zombies.
Expect highs in the 70s and high humidity tomorrow.
Friday will be partly cloudy and breezy with a slight risk of thunderstorms in the evening.
The weekend looks really nice: highs around 80, plenty of sunshine.
Another front comes through Monday and Tuesday, bringing with it some thunderstorms.
Showers this week; continued seasonable warmth
Right to the weather:
A few clouds overnight with a low of 42.
Monday looks partly cloudy, then mostly cloudy at night. High 74, low 48.
Tuesday will be cloudy and breezy with a shower or two possible (but predominantly dry). High 73, low 57.
In honor of Cinco de Mayo...Wednesday will cloudy and a bit chillier with showers a bit likelier, but not a washout by any means. High 66, low 54.
On Thursday we'll see some clearing, but a lingering shower or two. Milder with a high of 72 and a low of 53.
Friday will be the nicest (and warmest) day of the week: periods of clouds and sun; high 81, low 58.
Next weekend will be a departure from the last two, which were respendent with clear, blue skies. We'll see some showers, particularly on Saturday--but again, neither day will be a washout. Cloudy and breezy (and quite windy on Sunday). Highs in the lower 70s; lows in the mid 50s.
Next week looks clear and cooler, with highs on Monday and Tuesday in the low to mid 60s. Rainy and warmer by the second half of the week.
April ends, May begins. 27 school days remain.
My readers,
It's been a tough couple of weeks around my workplace, for a variety of reasons. It's hard to know what I can say or what I should say. So let's talk about the weather, shall we?
Chilly night ahead, with lows dipping into the mid 30s in some places and Frost Advisories posted.
The weekend looks gorgeous: clear skies (especially on Saturday), highs in the low 70s, calm winds. Lows in the mid 40s.
Late Sunday night (really, early Monday morning) we'll see some showers develop. Monday will be overcast and cooler (highs struggling to reach 60) with rain and drizzle on and off. Overnight low in the low 50s.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy with some showers and drizzle possible, especially in the morning. Highs in the mid 60s. Overnight low again in the low 50s.
On Wednesday, May begins! Carbon copy of Tuesday, basically. High in the mid 60s.
Overcast Thursday again with rain or drizzle late. High in the mid 60s. Clouds break on Friday but temperatures will again be in the mid 60s.
Next weekend will be much like this weekend, just breezier and cloudier. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Rain coming in late Sunday.
Next week (the week of May 6th) looks cooler (highs in the 50s) and wet (showers likely Monday through Wednesday), but as we get toward the end of the week and into the next weekend, we'll see temperatures warm up considerably.
The end is in sight, my friends. Stay strong.
... all of a sudden: spring.
Warming trend!!
You thought it was tough getting the children to concentrate on their schoolwork before? And you thought the students were clad in some uncomfortably revealing, spilling-out-every-which-way, I-didn't-need-to-see-that outfits before? Just wait until it's 80 degrees and sunny outside.
For extra delight, add the incessant question, "Can we go outside to do English today?" (answer: no; the only acceptable reason to go outdoors is to travel from one indoors to another).
James Garner as Jim Rockford. My own Pissy Face owes a debt to this man's expressive mug.Digression: today is James Garner's 85th birthday! Thanks for your great roles in "The Rockford Files," "Maverick," The Americanization of Emily, My Fellow Americans, and many others. Many of you know that Jim Rockford is my favorite television detective ever--and "The Rockford Files" is a stronger show over all than "Knight Rider." I know, I know: blasphemy. But I gots to be honest.
So here is what to expect:
Monday 4/8 will be warmer with variable cloudiness. Look out for a few isolated showers in the afternoon or evening. High 72, low 53.
Tuesday 4/9 will be overcast to start (with a shower or two early), then clearing and markedly warmer in the afternoon. High 78 - much higher than the average high this time of year (49-50), but not likely to reach the record high for this date (85, set in 1991).
Wednesday 4/10 looks mostly sunny and warm. High 77, low 57.
My celebrated Pissy Face also owes a large debt to David Herman, who portrayed Michael Bolton in Office Space. In this screen capture, he is reacting to the vapid perkiness of a co-worker who is endlessly amused by his name.Thursday 4/11 brings some changes. Expect partly sunny, breezy and warm (high 75) conditions in the morning and early afternoon; then a cold front moves through, bringing some showers and even a thunderstorm in the late afternoon. Rain, heavy at times, overspreads the area Thursday evening into Friday morning. Overnight low 51.
Friday 4/12 will be overcast, breezy and cooler with rain, especially early. High 56, low 39.
Saturday 4/13 looks a lot like Saturday 4/6: sunny and gorgeous with a high of 62 and a low of 40.
Sunday 4/14 brings more of the same: sunny and a bit warmer with a high of 67 and a low of 41.
Next week: sunny and warmer again, with mid-70s by midweek, then more seasonable with highs in the upper 50s by the end of the week.
Next weekend: right now, Saturday 4/20 looks like a carbon copy of 4/13 and 4/6. Sunday the 21st, however, looks chilly and rainy and gross with highs only in the low 50s.
Meteorological Haiku.
On a go-forward basis, all of my forecasts will be issued in the Americanized version of the ancient Japanese poetic form, haiku.
Colding overnight
Then chillier tomorrow
And then mild again
.....
Twenties next few nights
Wet sixties by next Monday
Vicissitudes-ah.
.....
First day of April
Traditional pranking day
Rife tomfoolery
.....
Screw this. Too hard. April Fool's. Here's the forecast:
Temperatures dipping into the upper 20s overnight. Still windy.
Tuesday will be colder and still windy with variable cloudiness. High 44, low 26. (But these values will feel like the mid 30s and low 20s because of the goddamned wind.)
Wednesday will be pretty much the same as Tuesday. High 42, low 24.
Thursday looks milder, as we should expect for this time of year. Less windy, too. Sunny to start, then clouding up later. High 56, low 41.
Rainy Friday. Overcast and pluvious. High 52, low 44.
The weekend looks milder and sunnier. Generally sunny. Highs in the upper 50s, lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Next week will see pleasant and much warmer conditions. Highs in the mid-80s. April Fool's!! Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Next weekend looks rainy and miserable. And windy. That would be the 13th and 14th. Sorry.
Thereafter: 70s, and not as wet as you might expect.
One last haiku:
Cole Hamels' moustache
Evanescent lip-warmer
Sadly, shorn too soon
.....
March goes out like a ... lion.
Umida solstitia atque hiemes orate serenas, agricolae.
That's Latin, and it translates roughly to "Farmers, may your summers be wet and your winters clear."
It was written by Virgil, a Roman epic poet in the first century BCE best-known for his Aeneid.
It's also the name of the upcoming winter storm--the one that's already dumping an early-spring accumulation on the midwest--according to the Weather Channel. (I just can't pass up an opportunity to ridicule TWC.)
There is a lot working against this storm--namely, that it will have to overcome the late-March sun angle and the buildup of milder surface temperatures. And the bulk of the event will occur during the day Monday, so if it does snow, it may have a hard time accumulating.
Working in our favor (for accumulating snow) is the fact that temperatures have been well below normal for the past couple of weeks, and the projected high for Monday is 35.
Some forecast models have us (in Reading and the Lehigh Valley) getting 4 to 8 inches of accumulating snow.
Alright, enough stalling. I've got to make a call. Here it is:
We may see some flurries on Sunday night, but snow won't begin in earnest until 3 or 4am Monday. Snow intensifies toward late morning, mixing with sleet and rain. (I do think that the bulk of this event will be snow; in that way, it will be reminiscent of last Monday's action.) Snow tapers by 8pm Monday.
In Philadelphia, its immediate suburbs, and south Jersey, we'll see a more rain and mixing, so I'm just going to call it a slushy coating to an inch for them.
Back to us: Berks and the Lehigh Valley will see 2 to 3 inches of accumulation, mainly on grassy and unpaved surfaces. At various times throughout the day we could see slippery travel, as we did last Monday--particularly during the morning commute and when the snow is at its most intense (late morning and early to mid afternoon), when even major roads can become coated for a time.
Percentages:
Chance of delay Monday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 30%
Chance of early dismissal Monday, 20%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 50%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 10%
Chance of I can't believe you're still reading this: 100%
Stay tuned for updates; I will send out further notifications when and if my forecast changes...
I've been tracking the storm and wanted to give you an update: my thinking has not changed in terms of the precipitation type, timing, and percentages I laid out in my most recent forecast.
The current radar:
Wintry weather lingers...
Friends,
That was an impressive couple of inches we had the other night. It wasn't much, but it certainly made an impact.
Expect another dusting or two before all is said and done.
Tonight: Breezy with flurries or brief snow showers possible this evening. No sticking, no accumulation, and no travel problems. High 40, low 26.
Friday: Clouds mixed with sunshine; windy. High 42 (will feel like low 30s); low 28 (will feel like upper teens).
Saturday: Breezy with plenty of sunshine, but still chilly. High 44, low 30.
Sunday: Sunny early; clouding up late. Some wet snow is likely late Sunday night into Monday morning. Expect an inch or two of accumulation and maybe even some more travel problems. High 47, low 31.
Chance of delay Monday: 25%
Chance of cancellation Monday: 10%
David Hasselhoff in Germany this week to join the protest against the removal of the last remants of the Berlin Wall. In 1989, Der Coiffure single-Hoffedly brought down that reviled communist symbol by performing "Looking for Freedom" in front of it.Monday: Overcast with rain and drizzle in the afternoon. High 48, low 34.
Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday: Breezy and a bit milder with brilliant sunshine. Highs near 50, lows in the mid 30s.
Friday 3/29: Cloudy and rainy. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Next weekend: Rainy and cool. Highs in the low 40s.
The first week of April looks to be a transitional week. It begins with highs in the mid 40s (and lows in the low 30s), and ends with highs in the upper 60s (and lows in the mid 40s). Wet, too. April showers and all that.
Wintry weather: Monday 3/18 and Tuesday 3/19
Top o' the ... evenin' to ya...
Light snow and flurries possible Monday morning, falling steadier toward late morning. We may see some mixing with sleet in the late afternoon and evening, but I see this as mainly snow - kind of like Saturday's action. Expect 2-3 inches of accumulation, but mainly on grassy surfaces. As we saw on Saturday, though, any amount of snowfall can cause slippery conditions. (Hell, people around here forget how to drive when it rains.)
Former Sixer Charles Barkley, one of my favorite players of all time. Barkley, a notorious Chapstick addict, revealed this week that in his playing days, in order to keep his lips fully moisturized and prevent them from chapping, he filled his belly button with Vaseline so he could apply it regularly during games. I'm not really sure how I feel about this--my first reaction is, gross--but I just wanted to share.Temperatures holding steady in the mid 30s. Precipitation changes to rain (and even freezing rain in higher elevations) overnight before ending Tuesday, mid-morning.
Driving hazards are possible anytime during this event, but the most serious threat seems to be Monday evening.
(Side note: The Weather Channel is calling this Winter Storm Ukko. Seriously? Just stop.)
Percentages:
Chance of delay Monday, 10%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 20%
Chance of early dismissal Monday, 25%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 30%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 10%
Chance of Wednesday, 100%
Temperatures below normal for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
Stay tuned for updates!