Snow day tomorrow?
The Hoff, unforgivably, takes Justin Bieber for a ride in K.I.T.T.Let's take a look.
Precipitation begins by 4 or 5am Monday. We will mainly see freezing rain (which falls as plain rain, but freezes on contact with surfaces, power lines, trees, and whatnot) with some sleet mixed in (which falls as frozen pellets, accumulating as it falls). The result looks like potentially significant icing, with up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation.
4-6am, sleet and snow
6-8am, sleet
8-10am, sleet and freezing rain
10am-12pm, freezing rain
12-2pm, freezing rain
2-4pm, freezing rain with some sleet mixed in
4-6pm, precipitation tapers, perhaps with snow mixing in
Look at this cool map of accumulated precipitation expected through Tuesday morning. Not a ton, but we don't need a lot to make things slippery.High on Monday will only be 33. We'll see significant travel difficulties with this storm due to slippery conditions and some downed lines/tree limbs. There will also likely be scattered power outages from this storm.
[Note: this is for the Lehigh Valley and Berks County region; areas south and east will see much more "plain rain" from this system, and will therefore have far fewer travel difficulties and delays.]
Scheduling:
Chance of delay Monday, 80%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 68.9%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 35%
Colder Monday night; watch for a quick freeze-up overnight into Tuesday.
The three-week period beginning on Tuesday 1/20 looks to be quite a bit more active in terms of the potential for wintry precipitation (especially given the relatively quiet winter we've had thus far).
Stay tuned for updates!
Quick update on the Tuesday action
Hey there.
Just wanted to give an update on the Tuesday action. Here's what:
Light snow develops across the area between 9-10am. Temperatures will be around 20 to start--and rising only to the mid 20s--so I expect this to be a fluffy, dry snow. Snow tapers by 1-2pm in this fast-moving system. Accumulations will be anywhere from a dusting to 1.875 inches. Travel could get hazardous, particularly in a squall (period of unusually heavy snow). But I think the timing of this event misses the early morning commute (7-8am) and the afternoon commute (4-5pm) in most places.
Chance of delay Tuesday: 9%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday: 17%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday: 20.5%
Chance of delay Wednesday (due mainly to extreme cold/wind): 13.77%
Stay tuned for updates!
A little action this weekend.
It's going to be a wacky weather weekend, especially for winter.
On Saturday 1/3, we'll see some precipitation, heavy at times. There may be a little mixing (snow and/or sleet) as the precipitation begins mid-morning, but I don't see any travel impacts or accumulation for us in Berks (or Lancaster, or Lehigh, or Bucks Counties, or points south). Maybe a couple of inches in Schuylkill County and up toward the Poconos. Early morning temperatures below freezing will rise through the 30s throughout the day. Foggy and misty at night.
Rain lingers in to Sunday morning and tapers by early afternoon. Temperatures climb well into the 50s (even flirting with 60) in the afternoon, and there will be a humid southwest wind that will make people say, "This is hinky weather for January."
Temperatures fall through the evening and overnight, reaching down to 32 by the Monday morning commute. Quite windy and much colder with temperatures only getting to a high of 34 (it will feel like the teens), then plummeting down to 21 at night (it will feel like single digits). It will be the first day back to work for many teachers, and it is as if Mother Nature will be slapping us across our tender faces as we drag ourselves back.
Snow on Tuesday, but just a bit, and it's not even definite. So stay tuned for updates on that one, but for now I think it's minor to a non-event. (Cold, though. High of 28 and breezy.)
Wednesday and Thursday continue the frigid trend: plenty of sunshine both days, but very windy, and the highs only get up to 27 and 22, respectively. (Overnight lows in the lower teens both nights.) Wednesday will feel like single digits during the day with the cold air and wind, and the negative single digits at night. Walking to your car after work on Wednesday, you will turn to a co-worker--even a stranger--and say, "God damn it's cold!" After this utterance, you will shudder and then attempt to curl yourself in to a chill-proof little ball of warmth as you walk.
And then Friday we may actually see temperatures poke just above freezing! So that'll be nice.
Next weekend looks cloudy with snow (changing to rain) from late Saturday night in to Sunday.
The next good chance of snow? January 19th to 20th, and then January 22nd to 23rd.
Stay tuned for updates!
Boxing Day forecast!
The tag from Bunk's costume. Note how untroubled--even delighted--the dog in the picture appears as a stuffed Santa sits athwart him.First, throughout this forecast, by popular demand, you will see pictures of The Bunk. It has been some time since I have featured him in a forecast--an oversight that merits immediate correction.
So the weather. It has felt a lot more like early October than late December for the past few days, and that trend will continue through the weekend.
Here's what to expect:
Friday 12/26 - Boxing Day and the first day of Kwanzaa - more clouds than sun, highs in the upper 40s. Breezy, but a lot less windy than today. Lows around 30.
Saturday 12/27 - John Amos' birthday - partly sunny and rather mild, highs in the low 50s.
Bunk in his costume. Note how morose he looks. His is the thousand-mile stare of a creature wondering how he has wronged his humans, and wherefore they have thus forsaken him.Sunday 12/28 - Denzel Washington's birthday - overcast with a chance of rain showers on and off beginning about 2-4am. Temperatures reach the mid 40s but then drop through the 30s by Sunday night.
Monday 12/29 - the 844th anniversary of Thomas Becket's assassination inside Canterbury Cathedral, as well as the birthday of Danny McBride - overcast to start with a few scattered rain and snow showers (with no accumulation or travel impacts), then turning out partly sunny. High of 38, overnight low of 28.
Tuesday 12/30 - the birthday of both Matt Lauer and Meredith Vieira, so, you know, banner day on "The Today Show" - breezy and colder. Times of clouds and sun, high of 36. Overnight low of 24.
Wednesday 12/31 - New Year's Eve, Tim Mathieson's birthday, and, most crucially, from 9pm to 12:30am on CNN, Anderson Cooper and Kathy Griffin will host their annual festival of awkwardness and inappropriateness - overcast and cold with some flurries possible. High 33 (wind chills in the 20s), low 22 (wind chills in the teens).
Thursday 1/1/15 - the first day of the New Year and Paul Revere's 280th birthday, and Frank Langella's birthday, AND Grandmaster Flash's birthday - sunny and cold and windy. High of 31 and low of 22.
The Bunk lounges, his favorite activity. A human has called his name, as evidenced by the look that says, "What trifles dost thou disturb me with? Cannot you see that I am in my repose? Waketh me not unless you have a treat to proffer."Friday 1/2 - Pernell Whitaker's birthday - overcast with sleet and snow overnight.
Beyond - Ice ending as rain for that first weekend of 2015. Looking at the periods of January 9-10-11 (1/10 is George Foreman's birthday) and January 14-15 (1/14 is Carl Weathers' birthday) for some wintry precipitation.
Stay tuned for updates!
FIVE GOLD RINGS!
Witness the power of suggestion: I have just put that song in your heads. (You are welcome.)
Here's what to expect for the rest of the month.
My newest tat.Windy and chilly (but with some sun) on Thursday 12/18. High will be 44, but it'll only feel like 2 with the wind. Nah, kidding. But it'll feel like the upper 20s. Gusty and shit. Tomorrow night's low will be 28.
Friday 12/19 looks chilly and breezy with more clouds than sun. Not as windy as Thursday, but still. It'll feel like 32-ish. Overnight lows plunge all the way down to 25.
Saturday 12/20 was looking interesting for a snow/rain event, but that's tracking south, so it's looking like a "miss" for us. I'll say cloudy and chilly with a few light snow showers possible Saturday evening and night. Temperatures holding steady in the 30s.
On Sunday 12/21 it'll be mostly cloudy but dry. Highs in the 40s.
Rainy on Monday 12/22 - but that's rain, not snow or sleet.
Some sun on Tuesday 12/23 and rather mild, with highs in the mid 40s.
Wednesday 12/24 looks milder still, with highs in the upper 40s. Expect breezy conditions with occasional rain showers.
Will we have a white Christmas?
RACIST.
Thursday 12/25 will be seasonably cooler (highs in the upper 30s) and a bit rainy/drizzly. We could see some light freezing rain/sleet overnight into Friday. But don't cancel your yuletide debaucheries.
Pattern shift on Friday 12/26: it becomes colder. High only in the mid 30s and a little brisk.
What about the weekend of the 27th and 28th?
I'm glad you asked.
A cold and icy shitshow, especially on Sunday. Highs don't even get above freezing.
Monday 12/29 will be sunny and really cold with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens.
Continued cold on Tuesday 12/30 and Wednesday 12/31 (full disclosure: it took me seven tries to type "Wednesday" correctly). Highs around freezing with some snow showers possible on the 30th.
When will it snow for reals, Monsoon?
January 1st and 5th and 8th and 12th, my good people. (At least that's what I've got my weather-eye on.)
Have a happy and healthy holiday season. I mean it. And happy new year.
Stay tuned for updates!
Scattered snow showers tonight, flurries tomorrow
Hi there.
Tonight (Wednesday 12/10), we'll see windy conditions with scattered snow showers. There will be little to no accumulation, but during a period of steadier snowfall we could see a slick spot or two (even some reduced visibility), so be careful. (Watch your bridges and overpasses, too, since they tend to freeze sooner than other paved surfaces.)
Tomorrow (Thursday 12/11), we'll see mostly cloudy and windy conditions continue. Scattered snow showers (and later, flurries) throughout the day. There may even be a period or two of steadier snow that'll produce some "are we getting out early"s and "can we open the window"s, but won't last.
Chance of delay Thursday, 32%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 7%
Friday 12/12 will be breezy and seasonably cold with times of clouds and sun. It will be dry (no snow or rain or whatnot), but not great for being outside. Highs will be in the upper 30s, and winds will be out of the west-northwest at 15-20mph. So at, say, 1pm, it'll be 38 degrees out but it'll feel like 27. So it's not the best day to be outdoors, so if you have a job like construction worker, or surveyor, or garbage collector, or educator who needs to march his or her kids from one place to the next, gird your loins. If you must be outside--let's say, you are required to do so, like it's your job--then bundle up. It'll feel like it did today when we left school--chilly and unpleasantly brisk--minus the snow showers.
The weekend looks a bit milder (highs in the low to mid 40s), less windy, and certainly sunnier. Overnight lows just a short-hair below freezing.
Next week looks really nice: seasonable and dry. Highs will be in the 40s for the week, and then no frozen precipitation straight through to Christmas. Still looking at December 27th-29th as a potential snowmaker, and expect it to get downright frigid right around that time, too.
Stay tuned for updates!
Messy, soggy, chilly week ahead -- but nothing too rough
Motivational poster; words by Michael ScottSo there's a Nor'easter on the way, and it will dump lots of rain (but probably nothing else) on parts of our area. The SparkNotes version of the forecast is this: a lot of precipitation, but mainly rain on Tuesday; snow showers on Wednesday and Thursday that won't amount to anything; and milder beyond that. And the rain represents depression or something.
Here's the full version of the forecast.
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way – in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.
Motivational poster; words by Dwight SchruteAlright. Happy medium.
Monday 12/8: In the mid 30s throughout the day. Precipitation begins by 8pm. Look for snow and sleet mixing in overnight, but by Tuesday morning, all will be rain. Up to 2 inches of rain for us; more in Jersey, so ponding on roads and even some flash flooding is possible. Precipitation ends by midnight, and I think it's gone before the cold air builds in, so the vast majority of the precipitation will be rain. Temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Windy on Tuesday: 15-20mph with gusts above 30mph, so it will actually feel like the 20s (teens at night).
Wednesday 12/10: Rain and snow showers on Wednesday morning and afternoon, but nothing that will accumulate or make things nasty. High in the mid to upper 30s.
Motivational poster; words by SchmidtThursday 12/11: Breezy and cloudy with scattered rain and snow showers; highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Friday 12/12: Clouds mixed with sun. High in the low 40s; lows in the upper 20s.
The weekend looks partly sunny with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s - a perfectly delightful mid-December weekend.
Beyond: Milder, generally. Highs in the 40s, lows in the 30s. I don't really see any appreciable wintry precipitation until December 26th-29th.
Stay tuned for updates!
Rain update for Friday-Saturday
Hasselhoff. Check that hair, though. Shit is on point.Welcome to December, the tenth month (...?)
It is December. Today is the first day of the month. December has 31 days. "December" comes from the Latin decem, meaning "ten," because December was originally the 10th month on the Roman calendar. (It followed September, the 7th month; October, the 8th month; and November, the 9th month.) Then a succession of Roman emperors added months and whatnot, and there was a papal intervention, and egos took over. And, as happens when egos and government and religion become involved, something clear and simple became convoluted and irrevocably complex. So the last four months of the year are still called September, October, November, and December, but the names no longer make a damned bit of sense.
But the weather. What of the weather?
Mild today, at least to start. Mostly cloudy with a passing shower possible in the early afternoon. Temperatures will reach the mid 50s by noontime and then tumble precipitously throughout the rest of the day. By midnight it'll be around the mid 30s.
Much colder Tuesday 12/2 with temperatures holding steady at or just above freezing. A weak cold front will bring some precipitation, some of which will be frozen. Expect snow showers mixed with sleet in the afternoon and early evening. I don't see any accumulation here, but there could be a few issues with visibility or slipperiness in the evening commute.
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 2.441%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 12.992%
Cloudy and milder on Wednesday with a passing rain shower or two in the morning. High around 50, low 34.
Not quite as mild, but clouds will still dominate on Thursday. High 44, low 31.
Friday looks overcast and chilly with highs in the upper 30s. Potential for a bit of rain and sleet, especially toward evening, so I'll keep an eye on that.
The weekend will be overcast with highs on both days in the mid 40s. And on both days, scattered rain showers are likely.
Seasonable (and actually sunny) next week! Highs in the upper 40s, lows in the mid 30s. Getting colder toward the end of the week.
The next real chance of frozen (or freezing) precipitation beyond the forecast period looks to be December 16th - 17th.
Stay tuned for updates!
GobbleBlock 2014©®™
An angry-assed turkey.Here’s an update on the storm I have christened GobbleBlock 2014©®™. A final call (if necessary) will be issued late Tuesday night.
There are a number of factors here:
- time of year (late November rather than January)
- speed of the storm (it’s going to zip through)
- warm surface temperatures prior to the storm (70s on Monday, 50s Tuesday)
- little indication that there will be heavy mesoscale banding with this storm
- less than impressive temperature gradients
So what does this all mean? Here’s what to expect on Wednesday 11/26/14:
Rain begins by 7 or 8am. Changes to snow by 10 or 11am. Heaviest snow likely between 2 and 4pm. Snow tapers by 8 or 9pm.
Temperatures will be in the mid 30s all day, falling below freezing by 9 or 10pm. Thanksgiving Day looks partly sunny and dry with highs in the mid 30s.
Accumulations:
- 2-3 inches in Berks and Lehigh Counties
- 3-5 inches in the Poconos and north Jersey
- 1-2 inches in Philly and its immediate suburbs
- coating to an inch places south and east of Philly – so if you’re travelling, the roads should just be wet
School impacts:
- Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 22%
- Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 44.75%
Travel impacts:
The snow will be wet and heavy, so when it snows, the road will get tightly packed with snow, and will therefore be slippery. Worst time to be on the road is anytime between noon and 6pm. Thereafter we should see tapering, but be careful of icy/slick spots in the evening due to dropping temperatures and the darkness. Oh, and the winds. So yeah, maybe don’t go out Wednesday night either.
Flights will be delayed and cancelled, I am sorry to say – particularly those flying in or out of areas affected by the rain/snow/wind/low ceilings (Philadelphia, NYC, Newark, and Boston). By late Thursday morning, most of this should be cleared out and travel (by car, plane, bicycle, or foot) will be getting back to normal.
On Thursday, the Eagles will beat the Cowboys by a score of 34-17.
Have a good holiday and, if you are travelling, be careful.
DON'T CALL IT A COMEBACK
"Don’t call it a comeback / I been here for years / Rockin’ my peers and puttin’ suckas in fear / Makin’ the tears rain down like a monsoon / Listen to the bass go boom / Explosion, overpowerin’ / Over the competition, I’m towerin’."
That’s LL Cool J, right there. Ladies Love Cool James. 24 years ago. Man.
Anyway, guys, thank you, for real, for your emails and words of concern when I said I was taking a hiatus. What I’ve realized, though, is that I am a forecaster. And forecasters gotta forecast. It’s not even like a choice. It’s like … a destiny and shit.
So there’s a low pressure system due to track up the east coast Tuesday night into Wednesday, which is the busiest travel day of the year. It’s a Nor’easter, and rumors are swirling that it could produce eight to twelve inches of accumulation and travel miseries aplenty.
Back up the wagon, there, Hoss. Put the horses back in the barn. Pry your chaps out your crack. So forth.
Here’s what I think:
Precipitation starts as rain on Wednesday morning about 7-9am. Surface temperatures will be in the mid 30s at this point, rising to the upper 30s by noon. Then temperatures will begin to fall; how quickly they do so and how pervasive that cold is in the atmosphere will determine how nasty it will get. (Storm track as well. This will all become clearer in the next few days.)
I think we begin seeing wet snow mixing in by 2pm. Travel through mid-afternoon will be mostly problem-free. The rain, which will be heavy at times, may cause some delays (particularly in roadways prone to flooding and for airlines, where low ceilings could pose a problem), but generally, travel should be fine.
Even when wet snow begins to mix in with the rain—and even when it begins to proper snow, as the cold air aloft makes its way down the column of air—the roads will just be wet. Any afternoon accumulations will be on grassy and unpaved surfaces.
Wednesday evening is when you don’t want to be out and about so much. From 6pm to about 11pm it will be snowing, and it will be a wet, obnoxious snow that will reduce visibility to about 2 ½ feet. So travel delays on Wednesday from dinnertime on will be fairly widespread (driving or flying).
And then the wet snow tapers to flurries and snow showers, ending by about 6am Thursday.
Accumulations:
- South Jersey, Delaware – an inch of accumulated wet snow at most
- Philly, central Jersey – a wet inch; two inches at most
- Chester County, Berks, Allentown, Montgomery County – one to three inches
- Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 6%
- Chance of early dismissal Wednesday: 18%
Full forecast for the coming week (and beyond) appears below. But if you really only care about Wednesday’s thing, then stop reading.
This is David Hasselhoff (right) with Kid Cudi. Kid Cudi is not LL Cool J, but he is another rapper, so that counts.Monday 11/24: rain overnight, heavy at times, tapering by 8 or 9am. Temperatures rising into the upper 60s behind that front. Windy, too, in the afternoon, but it won’t be a brisk type of wind from the northwest; it will be a soupy wind from the south-southeast, like a mouthbreathing creeper respiring on your neck on the subway.
Tuesday 11/25: sunny and seasonable. Getting windier and chillier as the day goes on. Early high near 50, but then fall through the 40s into the 30s in the evening.
Wednesday 11/26: the thing I talked about above with the rain and the wet snow and whatnot. Look at it.
Thursday 11/27: Some flurries possible early, then turning sunny and breezy. High about 40.
Friday 11/28: Cloudy to start, then clearing. Highs only in the mid 30s.
The weekend: highs in the lower 40s. Overnight lows in the 20s.
Do you see any snow on the horizon? Nah. I actually see a bit of a warming trend, with highs in the 40s or even 50s for the first half of December. Next windows I am looking at include December 14-15 and December 20-21. And December 24-25!
Stay tuned for updates!
My final delay/school closing percentages (until next winter).
Temperatures are falling quickly. Right now (7:30pm) they range from 34 in Mount Penn to 38 in Cumru Township to 40 in Kenhorst.
So will we have sleet or snow? And will we have a delay tomorrow?
I have already received reports of sleet mixing with the rain. And the Doppler looks like this (see below) so there's plenty more where that came from.
I expect the precipitation to end by midnight. Temperatures in most places will be in the lower 30s by that time, so we could see a little wet snow. But no accumulation, nothing serious.
What's it going to be like when we're making our commute tomorrow morning? Right around 7am? About 26 degrees. Winds out of the northwest at 20mph, sending wind chills into the teens.
But I don't see any travel issues. Maybe a slick spot or two widely scattered throughout the land.
School percentages:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 16.65%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 2.41%
High will only be in the mid 40s with blustery conditions on Wednesday. But temperatures rebound into the 50s on Thursday and Friday, then the 60s for the weekend. (A few showers on Saturday should be the only blemish on an otherwise seasonably nice weekend.)
Quick shout-out to my homies over at Thug Notes. Check out their deconstruction of multiple, unreliable narrators by (in my opinion) the greatest American cracker author.
Cold front to usher in dramatic temperature change
Friends of Monsoon,
There are rumblings about the potential for [expletive deleted] on Tuesday night. Sure, it is going to be much colder.
In fact, we're going to see temperatures drop 30 degrees in 24 hours (from 74 at 7pm Monday to 44 at 7pm Tuesday) and 45 degrees in 36 hours (74 now; 29 by 7am Wednesday).
But [frozen crap]?! Nah. I don't see it. (Except for the Great Lakes and western PA, where we see the rain end as wet snow, mainly covering grassy surfaces.)
Hasselhoff April Fool's Day photobomb. Absolutely #Hoffsome.Here's what to expect:
Showers develop by Tuesday morning and continue throughout the day. Rain will likely be heavy at times, and some places will see some late-afternoon thunderstorms move through. Most places will see about an inch of rain all told from this.
Temperatures stay in the 60s until about noon, when the wind will shift (from southerly to westerly) and temperatures will fall through the 50s throughout the afternoon. 40s by 6 or 7pm. Rain ends by 10 or 11pm.
Becoming rather windy overnight. Expect temperatures to dip just below freezing (32°F) by daybreak Wednesday.
Sure is going to be chilly on Wednesday: sunny but breezy, with highs only reaching 46. Patchy frost late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, too.
The Hoff with the gigantic model-Hoff up for auction. (Though just days ago, The Hoff called the auction house and pulled the item from the auction, saying he couldn't bear to part with it. So if you guys had decided to pitch in on it as a surprise, the dream is over.)A little milder on Thursday with temperatures reaching in to the upper 50s. Same thing Friday. Partly sunny both days.
The weather picture is a little muddled thereafter, but it appears that Saturday will have some scattered showers, and then Sunday will be cloudy but dry.
And I don't see it getting what I would call unpleasantly warm (highs reaching above the 70s) again until mid-May...
Stay tuned for updates!!
Winter Weather Advisory until Monday at 8am. (What the eff??)
Gift idea! Only $10K to get the bidding started. Check out the link at the bottom of this post.Alright, so the 75 inches of rain we got this weekend may end in some winter weather. I know, I know. I thought we were finished with the winter weather bull*#!@. But no. Places in central Pennsylvania are already seeing wet snow.
Here's what to expect:
Temperatures will fall through the 30s overnight. The winter weather advisory has been issued for Berks and Lehigh Counties (among other places), but I expect only the northernmost portions of these areas to be affected. So when the winter weather advisory calls for "snow and sleet accumulations 1 to 2 inches along with a light coating of ice," I think only the highest elevations and northern areas in Berks are going to see anything like that.
So by 7 or 8am, we'll see temperatures down around freezing (32°F) with strong winds sending wind chills down into the lower 20s.
Also, with an inch and a half to two inches of rain in most places in PA (and 2 1/2 to 3 in many places in Jersey), we're seeing flooding issues and road ponding in the area.
In terms of the morning commute, the winter weather advisory says the winter weather could impact road travel, but I think the chances of that are remote (unless you're in, like, Shenandoah or Pottsville or Lehighton, or even Hamburg). I don't see much chance for accumulating snow/sleet and do not think road surfaces will be cold enough to lead to slickness and whatnot.
Chance of delay Monday, 18%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 3%
Monday will turn out clearing but breezy; high of 54.
Tuesday and Wednesday look mostly sunny and milder still with highs both days in the mid 60s.
Cooler and rainy by the end of the week (highs in the mid 50s with rain both Thursday and Friday), but I'm thinking it clears for the weekend.
Stay tuned for whatever.
Check out the auction for the Hasselhoff oversized lifeguard figure.
Winter Storm Aretha, March 25, 2014
I have christened the upcoming storm Winter Storm Aretha because March 25th is the Queen of Soul's 72nd birthday. My favorite Aretha Franklin song is 1985's "Freeway of Love," which may make some of you wonder, "What about 'Chain of Fools'? What about 'R-E-S-P-E-C-T'?" No. It's "Freeway of Love," because it asks one of the most timeless and salient questions in the history of song: "How'd you get your pants so tight?" Bit of trivia: I used to call her "Urethra" because I thought it was hilarious. Alright: I still do, sometimes.
Also: the song is now in your head, and for that I am sorry, but not really.
It is Sir Elton John's 67th birthday on March 25th as well. Elton John and Aretha Franklin did work together once - a treacly 1989 duet called "Through the Storm" that was beneath both of them.
It is also Gloria Steinem's 80th birthday (!). If you don't know who she is, we can't be friends anymore.
And it's Domenick Lombardozzi's (Herc from "The Wire") 38th birthday.
The late, great blind blues guitarist Jeff Healey was born on March 25, 1966. He is perhaps best known for his band's residency at the Double Deuce in the Patrick Swayze tour-de-force Road House. (Note: if you have not seen Road House, stop reading immediately and find it and watch it.)
The late sportscasting Renaissance Man and legendary loudmouth Howard Cosell was born on March 25, 1918.
Rapper Juvenile (born Terius Gray) turns 39 on March 25th. Juvenile, perhaps best-known for his hit song "Back that Thang Up," is not to be confused with Juvenal, the imperial Roman poet of the first and second centuries whose Satires are a widely influential verse condemnation of human deviance.
Haywood Nelson, best known for his nuanced portrayal of Dwayne on "What's Happening!!" whose catchphrases included "Hey HEY Hey," "Uh UH!" and "Friendship is a sheltering tree." (That last one might be from somewhere else.) He is a Scientologist, which is kind of unsettling, and is the kind of troubling detail that you have come to expect here at the blog.
And finally, talking horse Sarah Jessica Parker, best known for her role in "Sex and the City," turns 49 on March 25th.
But the snow, Monsoon. Tell us about the snow.
Alright, here's what.
Models have been trending east, so it's looking like a we'll just get a glancing blow from this storm.
Sunny, breezy, and cold on Monday with a high of only 35.
On Tuesday, expect to see overcast conditions with scattered snow showers and flurries between about 8am and noon, steadier snow possible in isolated areas in the afternoon, and tapering snow showers/flurries by midnight. Here's why I think this isn't a big deal:
- The storm track is favoring an eastern solution, so there's relatively little moisture available for us.
- The bulk of the snow will fall during the daytime, and given the sun angle, it will struggle to accumulate on paved surfaces/sidewalks.
- The lack of dramatic phasing will prevent low pressure from intensifying and creating a major storm.
So I think we're looking at an inch or two of accumulation on cars and grassy surfaces.
School percentages:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 15%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 6%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 23%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 31%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 11%
Wednesday will be cold and quite windy, with a high in the mid 30s but wind chills in the low 20s. We'll get down to 20 overnight, which is extremely low for this time of year.
But then!
Sunny and warmer on Thursday with a high of 49.
Milder still (with variable cloudiness and a few showers) on Friday with a high of 57.
The weekend looks just dandy: highs in the upper 50s.
April begins with a day in the 60s, then we'll run into some April showers, which are so clichéd. Rainy and cool on April 2, 3, 4, and 5.
Thereafter, a delightful spring.
Stay tuned for updates!
What the hell is this crap about a snowstorm next week?!
Yes. Spring began today, but there's a snowstorm brewing for next Tuesday.
But the vicissitudes - that's the real story here. In the next four days, we're going to see highs in the 50s, then the 60s, then the 40s, then the 30s.
Friday 3/21: mostly sunny and seasonably pleasant with diminishing winds. High 52, low 38.
Saturday 3/22: clouds mixed with sun; breezy and warmer. A few scattered showers in the afternoon. High 64, low 35.
Sunday 3/23: clearing, breezy, and noticeably colder. High 43 (but it will feel like the 30s), low 24.
Jason deCaires Taylor, "Vicissitudes," underwater sculpture, Grenada, West Indies, 2006
Monday 3/24: clear and colder still. High of only 36, low of 22.
Tuesday 3/25: overcast with a chance of rain and snow. The pattern and model indications suggest a major snowstorm, but it's far too early to get a handle on it - especially a late-March storm like this, one that is so vulnerable. If all things don't come together just right - track, arctic air, sun angle, moisture content, and so forth - this "snowstorm" will be a harmless non-event.
Colder than normal the rest of the week: highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s. Then warmer again for the last three days of March. Then colder again to start April. (There's even some wintry mix action possible on April 1st and 2nd.)
I don't see this vicissitude-ish pattern abating until about a third of the way through April. And then: consistently milder - springlike, even - with highs in the 50s and 60s.
Stay tuned for updates!
SNOW WHAT.
Light snow showers between 8pm and midnight. Maybe a period of steadier snow overnight and into tomorrow morning (8 or 9am). Accumulation for Berks is a coating to an inch at most.
I expect the same as above for all of southeastern Pennsylvania and central Jersey.
Places like Wilmington (Delaware), extreme southern Jersey, and Maryland will be in the 2-4 range. Six inches or more will be reserved for northern Virginia and mountainous West Virginia.
Back to Berks: high of 33 Monday. Low of 22.
School delay is possible if we have heavier/steadier snow when the deciders wake up. The likelihood of that is slim. So:
Chance of delay Monday, 17%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 4%
Milder Tuesday (highs in the mid 40s) and Wednesday as well (though it will be rainy and drizzly).
Milder still on Thursday and Friday with highs in the 50s. Thursday is the first day of spring! So there's that.
A bit of a return to chillier weather thereafter, but nothing frigid. And nothing snowy or icy. Might we finally be finished with this $*@!ing winter? Yes, I believe so.
Stay tuned for updates!
Snow chances Sunday night to Monday
Bjerknes. He looks learned, to be sure, but he also seems to have a chip on his shoulder. Like, if he had to throw down, he could. He'd much rather discuss mathematics and whatnot, but if a fool is angling for an ass-whooping, he could apply it. Say something else, punk. I will slap you up one fjord and down the other.Happy Friday, Happy Pi Day, and Happy Birthday to Vilhelm Bjerknes, a Norwegian physicist and meteorologist whose work provided the basis for modern forecast models. He was born 152 years ago today. (He is dead.)
Speaking of forecasting...
Models are picking up a system moving through here on Sunday night into Monday. For a while it looked as if the track would be farther south and the solution would be warmer. Trends are shifting and evidence is mixed, but I am staying with a minor event for most of our region.
Breezy and milder today with a high of 54. Variable cloudiness will thicken late as a few widely scattered showers move through. (These are rain showers, though. The low will only be 38 overnight.)
Saturday could start with a scattered shower or two, but clear later. High 55, low 42.
Variably cloudy and colder on Sunday with a high of only 38. We'll have a few snow showers late Sunday night (after 9 or 10) overnight into Monday morning. Some forecast models suggest a moderate snowfall from this - in the range of 3-5 inches generally. I think this storm has too much going against it (time of year, sun angle, location, blocking potential), so my call is a coating to an inch.
School impacts:
Chance of delay Monday, 28%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 11%
The high on Monday only gets up to 32. Overnight low 23.
Then Tuesday is milder with highs in the 40s, which is where our highs will be throughout next week.
By next weekend we'll see highs in the 60s, then moderating to highs in the 50s the following week.
I know I usually end a forecast with "stay tuned for updates," but that's especially vital here. If I change my thinking as newer models come in, I will post here and on my Facebook page.
Stay tuned for updates!
If you haven't had a DUI, you are being ripped off by not using this ridiculously easy trick!
Trying to drum up traffic to the site by using a favorite spam come-on: I am not beneath that.
What to expect today and tomorrow:
Scattered showers from mid-morning Wednesday through mid-afternoon. Thunderstorms possible late afternoon and early evening (5 to 7, roughly). Not everyone will see them, but those who do will see high winds and heavy rain (but not a whole lot of lightning).
The temperature will rise to about 50 in the late afternoon, then tumble through the 40s starting around 6pm, then through the 30s by 9pm, and into the 20s by midnight. And into the teens by the Thursday morning commute!
The mystified Hoff. "What ... the ... Hoff ... is that?"High on Thursday will be 26. Low in the upper teens.
Precipitation will be rain, perhaps mixed with a little snow or sleet at the end, but accumulations will be a coating at the most.
The two most significant issues will be "flash freezing" and "wind."
"Flash freezing" is a colloquial weather term that refers to rapidly dropping temperatures. The cold front that moves through will drop temperatures from 52 at 6pm Wednesday to 18 at 6am Thursday - a drop of 34 degrees in 12 hours - which qualifies. That could freeze up everything that's left on the roads from the rain, causing travel issues.
And gusty winds will howl overnight: 30-35mph sustained with gusts near 50mph.
So:
Chance of delay Thursday, 38%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 9%
Seasonably milder on Friday and for the weekend: highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Slight chance of snow showers Sunday night and Monday morning. No accumulation.
Stay tuned for updates!
The Wednesday-Thursday mess. And is that it?
It's certainly going to feel like spring has arrived during the first half of this week.
The second half of the week, not so much.
Here's the forecast.
Partly sunny, breezy, and milder on Monday with highs getting into the lower 50s. Overnight lows in the mid 30s.
Tuesday is gorgeous: partly sunny, breezy, and unseasonably warm. High about 60. Again, only in the mid 30s overnight.
Wednesday is when we get a little reminder that winter isn't quite finished with us yet. Earlier indications were that we'd have a potentially major snowstorm with high accumulations, but the solution now suggests a milder storm: chilly with rain throughout the day, especially in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures in the 40s, so I don't expect any issues with ice/sleet/snow.
How does he keep finding different pictures of David Hasselhoff to include in his forecasts? Understand this: the supply of David Hasselhoff pictures on the internets is endless. As is my objectless tenacity at finding them. Also, the Troubadour of Charm City has never met a camera he doesn't like. He will pose literally anywhere, for anyone, at any time. So fear not: Hasselhoff is the gift that keeps on giving. Forever.
A cold front will move in behind the moisture, so temperatures will plummet below freezing by midnight and stay in the 20s for the rest of the day Thursday. Mixing will depend on how much moisture is left when temperatures fall; right now, I'd say not much. Maybe a bit of icing on Thursday morning to watch out for.
The big issue is going to be how much colder it is, and it will feel ever colder than that. (Thursday will be clearing, cold, and windy, with wind chills in the middle teens.) Overnight low will be 15.
School issues:
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 17%
Chance of delay Thursday, 36.433%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 3.14%
Alright, but then surely we're finished with having to worry about winter and cancellations and crap? No, my good people.
The weekend is nice: highs in the upper 40s and low 50s on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Overnight lows right around freezing. Maybe a few rain showers on Saturday 3/15 (the Ides of March!), but far from a washout.
Next Monday evening into Tuesday, it will get colder, and there is the chance for a snowstorm. That's over a week away, so we'll just leave it at that.
Thursday 3/20 is the first day of spring, but Mother Nature is going to be all, like, winter's over when I say it's over, suckas. That day looks sunny and windy with a high of only 40.
Stay tuned for updates!
[The video below is a tour de Hoff from his latest album. Penned by David, aka the German Neil Diamond. Finally, I am not TheHoffFan72. Honestly.]