Post-storm analysis; looking ahead
So ... we only got a dusting to an inch of snow, and much of Sunday night (which I had predicted would be rife with windswept snow) was dry. Even areas south of us didn't get the double-digit accumulations that had been expected with this storm. (Manahawkin, New Jersey--whose name is Lenape for fertile, sloping land--picked up 6.1 inches; Monroeville, New Jersey--named after the town's founder and hog-calling champion Sebastian "Soo-wee" Monroe--got 5.3 inches.)
That last thing was made up. I am not sorry.
So what happened? As I told one colleague before I was truly awake this morning (and obviously, before I could choose my words with more discretion): The storm just went down on us.
I will move on without further comment.
David Hasselhoff, trendsetter and visionary, with a cellular phone in a scene from 1989's Bail Out.Despite the relatively minor accumulation, there were a lot of travel issues this morning, particularly in the Philly area and points south and east, where there was a layer of ice hidden under the snow-covered roadways. (There was more rain and sleet there, so that's why the icing happened.) Lots of spin-outs and whatnot. Please slow down, people.
It's very cold today. 18 balmy degrees in the middle of the afternoon. Overnight (early Tuesday morning) it's going to be -2. So that's 20 degrees colder than it is right now. (Math friends, are you impressed? I did that in my head.) Considering the extreme cold and the residual slipperiness, a delay tomorrow would be reasonable.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 52.985%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 8.143%
Getting up to 25 on Tuesday and just above freezing on Wednesday. Wednesday night into Thursday we could see some snow showers, but, like my Uncle Harry, these will not amount to anything.
Into the upper 30s on Thursday, 40s on Friday, and pushing 50 by Saturday. Then, colder again. I am keeping an eye on potential ice/snow events for Wednesday 3/12 and Monday 3/17. But you know what? Let's just bask in the mercy that Mother Nature has shown us by making the last storm a "miss."
Stay tuned for updates!
The final call.
Not The Final Call, the official newspaper of the Nation of Islam.
The final call, as in my latest thinking about the upcoming storm.
It's a complex and rapidly changing storm, and one that has been problematic for the forecast models.
That's meteorological jargon for "we don't have the faintest g.d. idea about what is going to happen."
But I shall try! It is what I do.
The "bull's eye" (area of heaviest snow) appears to be West Virginia, the upper hump of Virginia, DC and Maryland. And maybe South Jersey. That's in the 8-10 inch range still, and maybe a foot or more in isolated areas.
Philly, Lancaster, Chesco, and Delco look to be just north of this bull's eye, so that would put them in the 4-6 inch range.
Allentown is in the 2-4 inch range.
Reading and Berks are in an interesting position with this storm: I believe the "cutoff" that separates half a foot from 2 or 3 inches will run through Berks. It's impossible to be precise yet, but I would surmise that southern Berks (Gouglersville, Mohnton, Shi-town, Morgantown) will be in the 4-6 inch range, while northern Berks (Temple, Kutztown, Hamburg, Fleetwood) will be in the 2-4 inch range.
There have been (and there will be) other entries in the category I would like to christen the Man Meat Mullet: Chuck Norris, John Stamos circa "Full House," Simon Le Bon, Billy Ray Cyrus, Mario Lopez circa "Saved by the Bell." But no one has ever imbued that most ill-advised of hairstyles with as much je ne sais quois, as much raw sensuality, as much elegance, as The Hoff. NO ONE.Macungie will be in the 2-4 range. (I don't know anyone who lives in this Lehigh County borough, I don't think, but I visited there as a child and love the name. It derives from the Lenape word maguntshe, or "bear swamp." This etymology sounds like something I would make up and try to convince people of its authenticity, but not this time.)
Hampomoxin will be in the 4-6 range. (This is a little burgh outside Philadelphia whose name derives from Hamphomoccaxii, a word the Delaware people had that loosely translates to "the white man wears shoes made of lies.")
Now, see, that one was made up. There's no place called Hampomoxin. But the Macungie action is right on.
Where was I? Ah yes, the weather.
We'll see light rain and snow showers beginning by late this afternoon. Snow falls more steadily by 9 or 10pm. The bulk of the snow (such as it is for Berks) will fall overnight, and snow will be intermittent. It will end by about 9 or 10am Monday.
Here's the thing, though: the air behind this system is REALLY cold. Like, ass-cold. Monday morning at 7am it will be 16 degrees. Overnight from Monday into Tuesday, the temperature will drop to -2. Negative two! So right now it's 38 degrees. 40 degrees colder than that.
In fact, we won't get back up above freezing again until Friday afternoon. I don't see any more snow, really. Maybe a little bit on Saturday the 8th, but no big deal.
Oh! Updated school closing information for Berks:
Chance of delay Monday, 80%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 65%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 13.242%
Stay tuned throughout the storm for updates...
The latest on 3/3 snow.
An image from the latest GFS run.Some model runs are shifting the storm southward, but there are many factors that make this difficult for the models to handle - the time of year, the warm air from the south, and the alpha stream, to name three.
There is no alpha stream. I totally made that up.
The point is that I could get into a bunch of meteorological jargon and bore the living scheisse out of you, but I think most of you would like me to just tell you what I think will happen. So here goes.
By about just after noon Sunday, we'll start seeing some light snow showers/flurries/sleet moving in to the area. On and off with this through the afternoon and early evening. I think roads are fine during this bit, with just a few slippery spots here and there.
David "Helloooo ladies, says my chest fur" HasselhoffBy 6 or 7pm Sunday, we'll see steadier snow, intensifying overnight. Tapers in the early afternoon Monday.
I see mixed precipitation on Sunday, but all snow for Monday.
How much?
Lehigh Valley, Berks, central and northern New Jersey, NYC: 4-6 inches with minimal icing.
Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Lancaster Counties: 6-8 inches and a little bit of icing.
Philadelphia, Wilmington (DE), South Jersey: 10-14 inches of snow. In some places, more. And enough mixing that power outages look likely.
West Virginia, northern Virginia, DC, southern Maryland: 6-8 inches of snow and significant icing.
Updated school closing percentages (for Berks only):
Monday delay, 35%
Monday cancellation, 85%
Tuesday delay, 70%
Tuesday cancellation, 38%
And hey, good news! Thursday-Friday now looks like it might be a miss. Might.
Stay tuned for updates! I plan on sending out a thinger on Sunday to reflect the changing realities. Of the situation. You know what I mean.
David Hasselhoff, master of action sequences.
Monsoon's first call on Monday 3/3 storm
But there's this, so it's OK.First, the cold. Low gets down to about 5 overnight into Friday morning. Windy as balls tonight, too.
Saturday will be mostly cloudy with a couple of light afternoon snow showers possible. High 33. No accumulation.
Sunday will be cloudy and cold with some flurries possible in the afternoon. The storm starts Sunday evening and continues to Monday night. Temps are in the mid to upper 20s for the duration of the storm, so I see a little mixing, but mainly snow. Windy, too, again, just for shits and giggles.
Timing is hard to pin down right now, but I'd say it snows from 9pm Sunday to 8pm Monday, with some flurries and light snow showers lingering in to Tuesday morning. I see accumulations of 8-10 inches. No school Monday and delay Tuesday.
Behind the storm, believe it or not, is a blast of cold air again. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will only get up to the mid to upper 20s.
And Thursday brings another potential snowstorm. Maybe a 4-6 incher. I know. I passed incredulous about 4 storms ago. I have bypassed indignant, too. Now I suppose I am wallowing in exhausted bewilderment.
Friday and Saturday look overcast but milder with highs well into the 40s. And beyond that, I see nothing. I don't mean no snow, I mean nothing. You heard it here first: the world is ending at midnight on Saturday, March 8th, 2014.
Stay tuned for updates!
Hasselhoff - en svensk talkshow
That means "Hasselhoff - a Swedish talk show." In a truly inexplicable development, and one about which I'm not entirely sure how to feel, David Hasselhoff is hosting a late night talk show in Sweden. It premiered today.
The show is filmed in Sweden. Its ads are in Swedish. On the show, Hasselhoff interviews Swedish celebrities. And the whole show is conducted in English. Hasselhoff does not speak Swedish, except in a few crowd-pleasing phrases he's picked up. He has a house band, called Emma and the Hoff-beats. Emma is a skinny little miniskirted bit of Swedish sex appeal who plays the saxophone and engages in awkward banter with The Hoff.
In the first several minutes, he makes several Baywatch and Knight Rider references (both visual and verbal), speaks of himself in the third person, and deeply insults the entire nation of Sweden. Here is the trailer:
It is almost futile to go on with the weather (or, indeed, with one's daily life) in light of this seismic development. But:
A few flurries and/or light snow showers on Tuesday, late morning and early afternoon. Amounts to nothing. Breezy with clouds dominating the brave, o'er-hanging firmament. High 32, low 21.
Light snow possible on Wednesday, anytime between 1am and noon. Accumulation of an inch or two at most. Cold day with high of 28 and a low of 8.
Wait. Am I on glue, or does David Hasselhoff now have his own Swedish talk show? He does. OK.
That's Emma there on the left. And the Hoff. The name in lights is neat, but I noticed that when he sits down to interview a Swedish celebrity, the camera shows only a portion of the backdrop, and it reads ASS. Not quite well-thought-out, maybe.
School issues:
Chance of delay Wednesday, 21%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 4%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 1.923%
Thursday will be cold again. More sunshine, but still cold. Hey, Mother Nature, are you aware that it's a few days until the end of February? Because damn. High 31, low 8.
Friday will be even colder. High of only 26. Son of a brrr.
Saturday brings another chance for some snow. Just some snow showers, though. High 33.
Sunday looks sunny and cold. High 34.
Monday, March 3rd brings snow. This looks like a surer bet, but it's almost a full week away, so we'll see what it looks like by the end of this week. But probably snow.
Cold the rest of the week, too. Below normal, for sure. Another snowstorm on March 10th? Can't be. Might be, though. May be.
Stay tuned for updates!
Spring tease will end today. Snow coming. (Sorry.)
Actual David Hasselhoff quote, proving definitively why he is beyond reproach and above (below?) antiquated notions of "talent" and "success."The mild weekend continues (high in the 50s today). Sunshine and whatnot. Melting. The news had pictures of crews taking advantage in the lull to fill potholes. (I didn't actually see anyone doing that in Reading, and the Penn Street Bridge continues to be an obstacle course of yawning potholes that look as if they could swallow an entire car. But I digress.)
Temperatures will fall through the 40s this evening as a cold front approaches. It will get cloudy, too. Rain and drizzle will begin by 8 or 9pm, then mix with (and change over to) wet snow overnight. I expect the snow to fall between about 10pm and 4am, leaving us a coating to an inch generally. Since we'll be below freezing for the morning commute, slickness is possible.
Possibility of delay Monday, 30%
Possibility of cancellation Monday, 8%
Monday turns out mostly sunny, breezy, and colder. High of 34 will feel like the low 20s due to wind. Low 24.
Tuesday looks cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. This is a light disturbance with minimal moisture, so I don't expect accumulation, but remember that any snowfall can cause temporary driving issues.
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 14%
Another system may (or may not) hit us Tuesday night into Wednesday. I think we get hit. It's a little early for amounts, but that's what I do, so here: 2-4 inches.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 65%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 30%
Wednesday's high will be 28, so this will be all snow. Overnight low, 11.
Thursday will be similar to Monday: intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, high at or just above freezing.
Chance of delay Thursday, 21%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 2.995%
Cold on Friday: high of only 27.
Sun and clouds over the weekend with some widely scattered snow showers possible on Saturday. Highs in the mid 30s, lows around 20.
Next week brings another chance of snow (March 3-4) but that looks light.
And then temperatures moderate, reaching levels typical for this time of year: highs in the upper 40s.
Stay tuned for updates!
Updated thinking on the freezing rain event - 2/19
So a couple of things have changed: temperatures will be colder and the solution looks a bit juicier. Surface temperatures won't rise above freezing until about 9am on Wednesday, and the precipitation will start around 7am, so it appears that there will be a brief period of freezing rain.
(This is just for Berks/Lehigh and points north and west. Lancaster, Chester, Philly, Delaware County, South Jersey - this will just be a bit of plain rain.)
It's going to get down into the mid 20s overnight, so the potential for slippery roadways/sidewalks is going to be greatest between 7am and 9 or 10am.
New school percentages:
Chance of delay Wednesday, 60%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 21.775%
Also: thanks to several of my readers who added snow-driving peeves of their own. Robin ranted about the snow mounds at every intersection, particularly in residential areas. A motorist driving a regular-height car cannot see around them, and so must make his or her peace with death before entering blindly into the roadway. Other folks were talking about the insidious narrowing of the streets, and the fact that passing another car on the street is now a nail-biting proposition.
Still haven't heard from any plowers/salters/road crews/township maintenance types/Penndot workers about why the roads are so persistently and pervasively shitful. Talk to me!
And be sure to forward your driving/weather complaints/grievances to me as well...
I am going to collapse into bed now and cough and sniffle until I fall asleep.
Is there anything to worry about for tomorrow?
Weather-wise, no. Small chance of freezing drizzle or fog. But we'll probably just see some light rain showers and drizzle/mist in the morning. Wednesday will turn out partly sunny and milder with a high of 44.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 20%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 1.75%
Same temperatures with a few late showers on Thursday.
Breezy and milder (high 52) with occasional showers on Friday.
Cooler over the weekend with highs in the mid 40s (Saturday) and the lows 40s (Sunday). Mostly sunny and breezy.
Still keeping an eye on a system that could bring us s*** next week, Monday into Tuesday. Also looking ahead to a potential snowstorm on March 2/3.
Moving on, though.
I have noticed, in my travels around this area, that many roads are a screaming shit show of slush and ice and compacted snow. In residential and semi-rural areas, lots of people report that the roads have not been plowed or treated at all ("I haven't seen a plow in nine days," said one source, who shall be kept anonymous). Parking lots are rife with ice patches and sadness. And the potholes. Oh, the potholes! They are especially rutty and haphazardly distributed across the roadway this season.
I don't want to accuse municipal/township workers of failing to do their jobs here. So I will just put it as a question: could we be doing better? Is there any reason why the roads and lots cannot be clearer? Must I feel like I have dodged death each time I make it safely to any destination? If you are (or know) a plow driver or salter, or whatever, I would appreciate some clarification...
And now: an instance when I am glad the ice was not cleared in one particular spot...
*sighhhhh*
I really look forward to the time when I can send you people a forecast that features no mention of the word "snow."
Unfortunately, I will have to keep waiting.
Here's what to expect:
Today will start sunny, but cloud up later in the afternoon ahead of a small disturbance. We could see a flurry or a couple of light snow showers late this afternoon into this evening. No accumulation. Breezy all day and night. High 29, low 8.
Before I talk about the snow, let me just say a few words about the road conditions that persist several days after the Nor'easter and a day after the nuisance snowfall. And those few words are: they are shitty. The main routes and highways tend to be just wet, but the secondary roads are snow-covered and slick in spots. And in the city, people are getting stuck all over the place, or just leaving their parked cars along the road, piled with snow and plowed in to the max, like silent winter weather totems. People who are trying to get their street-parked cars out are shoveling the snow into the street, which is one of my favorite things ever. Or parking at crazy angles. Winter driving in town is maddening and chaotic.
Like this.
Alright, so I just needed to share that - not only to vent, but to note that we've already got a shit-ton of snow, and the roads are compromised, so even a little bit of snow has the potential to hamper travel.
Monday will have clouds mixed with sun and a high of 30. Snow arrives by midnight (late Monday night) and continues throughout the early morning hours of Tuesday, tapering by about 9am and ending outright by noon. (We could see some lingering afternoon flurries, but this is a fast-moving storm with a limited amount of moisture, so it'll scoot through.)
Accumulations in the range of 2-4 inches.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 75%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 60%
High Tuesday 36, low 28.
Wednesday looks overcast and breezy with the chance of an early shower, but warmer: high 44, low 30.
Thursday is overcast again, and rain/drizzle/mist could fall at any time. Still mild: high 45, low 34.
Friday looks cloudy and breezy with a bit of early-morning rain or drizzle. High 51, low 32.
The weekend will be rainy and mild: highs in the mid 40s, lows in the low to mid 30s.
Next week (the week of Monday 2/24) begins colder with a chance of snow, but it's early yet, so let's just skip over that. Cold generally that week with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s, but sunny most days.
And then the following weekend (the first two days of March) look positively balmy: highs in the 50s with soul-nourishing sunshine.
Stay tuned for updates!
P.S. If you haven't seen this video - and oldie but goodie, internet-wise - you've got to see it. Warning: there is A LOT of profanity in this video. A LOT.
An update on the February 18th storm - my current thinking as of 9pm Monday:
Snow begins about 2-3am Tuesday. Heaviest snow is 4am-8am. Snow tapers and ends by 10am.
I continue to believe that accumulations will be in the 2-4 inch range.
Getting above freezing by noon; high 37. Afternoon and evening will be windy with clearing skies.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 80%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 60%
There's a small chance we'll have some icing on Wednesday morning if the rain arrives before it warms up. But I think that's a relatively minor chance. Let's just move on.
40s on Wednesday and Thursday, 50s on Friday. Rainy on Wednesday and Friday. Friday may bring flooding with the rainfall and snowmelt, so awesome.
Colder thereafter. Highs in the 30s next week.
Here's the Doppler:
There's just so god damned much snow.
What a storm. A foot on Thursday morning, then a thundersnow-laden blizzard on the back end.
The numbers are staggering: 20.5" in Birdsboro, 18" in Mertztown, 20.3" in Bethlehem, 18.5" in Gouglersville, 19.5" in North Jersey, 20.2" in Honey Brook, 18.8" here in Reading. Most of the area fell between 12 and 18 inches of snow.
In meteorology (even among hobbyists), there is a tendency to overquantify. To get all number-nerdy and focus on the pressure readings, the temperature gradients, the snowfall totals, the QPF.
But--not to get too philosophical here--this storm is one that reminded me why I am so drawn to forecasting the weather. Numbers are important in forecasting (as in life), but there's the unquantifiable element: the power of nature to overwhelm, and to do so effortlessly.
In Lord of the Flies, a novel about boys stranded on an island, Ralph stares out to sea during a contemplative moment and is "faced by the brute obtuseness of the ocean." He's realizing (with a little "fall of the heart") that the water is going about its ebb and flow indifferently. In the same way, we scurry around trying to outsmart nature, to anticipate it, to control it, to defeat it. And nature rolls on, not to spite us, but with utter disregard of us.
Not sure why I'm in such a ruminative mood. Maybe it's just easier than worrying that the next snow-hunk that falls off our roof is going to be the one that breaks a window. Or that the next gust of wind is the one that dislodges a branch onto a power line. Or that the school year will never, ever, ever end.
There's another little storm coming tonight. I almost can't bring myself to tell you about it, but that's my "job," so here goes...
Yes, I censored the nipples. I thought it would be unfair of me to confront you with unwanted nipples when all you wanted to do was read my blog. You can't unsee things.Snow moves in for most of us about midnight or 1am (Friday/early Saturday). On and off, varying rates until about 1pm. Should only accumulate about 1-3 inches, but remember that it doesn't take much for the roads to become treacherous. I mean, after a foot and a half of snow, this seems like mere child's play. But today's 100-vehicle pileup on the PA Turnpike is a reminder that the key to driving in the snow (more than having a snow-savvy car) is slowing way down and keeping a generous following distance.
Backing things up a bit.
Today is getting up to 41 with plenty of sunshine, so the roads will get better and better as the day goes on.
And then the aforementioned nuisance snow.
Cold over the weekend: high of 28 Saturday and 22 on Sunday. Low of 15 over Saturday to Sunday; 5 overnight Sunday to Monday.
And then some snow/mixed precipitation moves in for Monday night into Tuesday, so stay tuned for updates on that.
And then it gets warmer by the end of next week! I promise it does.
Update from the dry slot!
So we got some snow.
10-12 inches in most places. 11 inches in Mount Penn, a foot in Bernville and Bowmansville, 13 inches in Reading, 13.5 in Mohnton.
A sampling of other totals from around the region: 14" in Wilmington, DE; 11-14" in north Jersey; 17" in Uwchlan Township, Chester County (site of the massive ice storm outages last week - those poor people); a foot in South Philly.
From the reports I have seen, roads aren't bad: plows have been able to do their work, most people have stayed home if possible, and there's been relatively little ice complicating matters. Secondary roads are gradually being plowed.
Now we're in the "dry slot," which is an area of little or no precipitation that forms in a Nor'easter when it starts to pull away (to the northeast, hence the name). A still radar image from 3:45pm shows this. As you can see on the image, though, there's a whole mess of precipitation that's sitting off to our west. This is called the "back end," and it will deliver another 2-4 inches of "wraparound" snow in most places. Expect this action between about 6 and 10pm.
In addition, the winds will pick up this evening and overnight, which is bad in terms of the potential for downed limbs, power outages, and whatnot.
So the storm totals for Berks are going to end up in the range of 14-18 inches generally. Which is a lot.
Temperatures will be below freezing until about noon tomorrow, after which clouds will break and we'll get up to a breezy 38.
School predictions:
Chance of delay Friday, 100%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 70%
There's also another (comparatively) little storm that will move through early Saturday morning. I think this one will slide to our south, though. The most we'll see out of this storm (which is slated to hit between 2am and 9am Saturday) is about 1-3 inches. Saturday will turn out breezy and chilly (high 31) with plenty of afternoon sunshine.
Sunday is colder still. High 28, then getting down to 5 overnight.
Some ice is possible late Monday into Tuesday morning, so we could see a delay (but not likely a cancellation) out of that.
And then it warms up. Highs in the 40s on Tuesday 2/18 and Wednesday 2/19; highs in the 50s for the remainder of the week. I mean, the end of the week looks rainy, but I think that's not going to bother anyone. Just no more snow, you are saying. I hear you, I am typing.
A bit cooler the following week, but nothing else winter-weather-wise looms. I really believe that, and I really, really want that to be true. So it is both true (based on my forecasting) and my fondest wish.
To cheer you up, here is a video of a cat.
No cats were harmed in the making of this video.
Stay tuned for updates! And be sure to send me your snow totals, power outages, and road conditions!
This son of a bitching storm.
My snow-weary readers,
I wish I could tell you that this storm has changed its track dramatically and now it will be just a flurry or a wisp of drizzle. I wish I could tell you that we won't have 30mph winds and heavy, wet snow that will bring down trees and power lines. I wish I could tell you that we won't get 12-16 inches of wind-driven, crippling snow. And I really wish I could tell you that there's not another storm looming for Monday into Tuesday that promises snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
I wish.
David Hasselhoff takes his pants off.The first flakes will start falling by midnight Wednesday, but it won't really get cranked up until 2 or 3am. Then it snows heavily for the next 14 hours. And the wind speed increases during that time. Tapering begins by about 7pm Thursday, then ends by 1 or 2am late Thursday night/Friday morning. There could be a bit of mixing (especially points south and east of Berks), but this is primarily a wet snow event. Windy and nasty.
Snow totals:
Berks, Lancaster, Allentown, Poconos, extreme North Jersey, 12-16 inches, all snow.
Philadelphia's suburbs, 10-14 inches, maybe a little bit of mixing.
Philadelphia, central Jersey, NYC, 8-12 inches, some mixing in the afternoon.
South Jersey and Delaware, 4-8 inches generally, with plenty of mixing.
Watch for beach erosion and high winds (and waves and all that) along the NJ and Delaware coasts.
Schools:
Chance of delay Thursday, 20%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 99.6%
Chance of delay Friday, 92%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 70%
Temperatures remain steady in the upper 20s/low 30s throughout the storm.
Trivia: The Weather Channel has named this Winter Storm Pax, which is Latin for peace, which no it's not peaceful. It's a vicious, crippling winter storm and Pax is a dumb name for any winter storm. Is my sputtering rage at The Weather Channel's alarmist buffoonery coming through?
Depressed again. Here's a video of an orangutan and a dog that are BFFs.
Stay tuned for updates.
Thursday update: major winter storm
Regarding Thursday's storm: there's still plenty of uncertainty in terms of track, precipitation type, and timing. But here's what I see...
Snow begins overnight Wednesday into Thursday (around 10pm Wednesday). Snow continues Thursday, varying in intensity. Thursday morning, Thursday afternoon, Thursday evening, Thursday night. Snow, snow, snow, snow. Snow ends by 3 or 4am Friday.
Amount - right now, it looks like we're in the bull's eye for 12-16 inches of snow. That could be less if precipitation type mixes or track changes. But right now I'm thinking:
Chance of delay Thursday, 25%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 85%
Chance of delay Friday, 80%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 65%
Leading to that storm, we'll see some frigid-assed weather. Low tonight down to 10. Tuesday's high, 25; low all the way down to 4. Wednesday's high, 25 again; low, 12.
This is a really depressing forecast, so here's this:
Stay tuned for updates!
Quick one about Sunday and next week.
On Sunday we'll have a bit of snow. Not a lot. An inch or two at most.
Multiple hues of dark denim, multiple button malfunction, black leather gleaming, sprig of chest-fur peeks. His name is David Michael Hasselhoff, and you have seen more pictures of him than you ever imagined you would in your entire lifetime.Begins as flurries by noon. Then some steadier periods of light snow in the afternoon. 3pm-7pm is the period during which some slippery-roadway-creating snow will most likely fall. Flurries end by about 11pm. Most places will see only about an inch. Someone, somewhere might get as much as 2.2 inches. That's it, though.
Monday will be partly sunny and cold. A delay is not likely, but not out of the realm of possibility. High 28. Then it gets bitterly cold again overnight into Tuesday, falling to 8 (with breezy conditions making it feel like 0).
It's been some winter when single digits make us say, "Big frickage. Wake me up when it gets below zero. In fact, you know what? Don't wake me up 'til late March. I will hibernate, like an actual bear, for the next six weeks."
Yes, frickage. I just made it up.
Chance of delay Monday, 30%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 11%
Tuesday is cold too. Clouds breaking. High of 25. Single digits again at night. Yawn.
Partly cloudy and not quite as cold on Wednesday. High of 33!
Snow still looks likely for the Wednesday night-to-Thursday evening period. On Monday, I will have a better idea on that storm, and I will tell you fine people all about it.
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 23%
Chance of delay Thursday, 70%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 55%
And then milder for the middle of the month and beyond.
Stay tuned for updates!
Weekend fizzles; next week action?
As of this morning, there were still a couple hundred thousand people with no power from Wednesday's ice storm, so I hope everyone is safe and warm...
Keep on the lookout for black ice tonight as the temperature gets down to about 12.
On to the much-discussed weekend. To be concise, we are lacking the ingredients we would need for a major snowfall. Saturday will be cold (high of 31) and mostly cloudy with a few snow showers likely in the late afternoon/evening range. Expect a mere coating from this action, but no appreciable accumulation. (This will be a "nuisance event," though, meaning that you should check the Doppler before you go out to see if you're likely to encounter snow. Remember: it doesn't take much snow at all to make the roads slippery, and even less to make people forget how to drive.)
On Sunday morning, expect a bit more snow. We could have light accumulations in some areas (an inch or two at most), but the majority of people will just have snow showers, tapering to flurries in the afternoon.
Der Graupel-Hassel-Hund (literally, sky fruit hirsute dog) poses in 1989 with his single "Looking for Freedom." Just take a moment to take a tall drink of Hoff: the chest fur, the ripped jeans, the superfluous leather. How is he not a bigger star? you wonder. He is the biggest star, I correct you.Monday looks sunny, windy, and cold (high 28); Tuesday will be even colder with a high of only 24. Overnight lows for both days will be in the lower teens.
The Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning time frame is looking provocative for a winter storm. Right now I'd say this is looking likely, and it's setting up for an early dismissal Wednesday and a day off Thursday.
But! I think this coming week will bring our LAST SNOW DAY OF THE SCHOOL YEAR!! I think.
After that, things warm up a bit: highs in the 40s on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. And the 50s by the end of the following week (2/19, 2/20, 2/21)!
Stay tuned for updates...
Wednesday afternoon update
Alright. Some northern areas (Sussex County, NJ; Carbon and Monroe Counties in PA) got 8-10 inches of snowfall out of this. For most of the rest of us, we got relatively little snowfall (and inch or two at most), but significant icing: one-quarter to one-third of an inch of ice accretion reported in much of southeastern Pennsylvania. Also heard reports of lightning(!) and heavy snow banding in upstate NJ and NY. Demonic bird-lizards have been spotted running through the streets of Tredyffrin Township. (Alright, I made that last one up. I just wanted an excuse to reference Tredyffrin. I love that name.)
Lots of trees/lines down. Power outages in SE PA are over 600,000 now. (Chester County got especially badly hit: more than 80 percent of customers there are without power.) As of 1:30, precipitation was pretty much over for most of us.
This morning, in West Chester.Winds are pretty calm now, but will pick up somewhat (10-15mph out of the northwest) this evening and overnight. So I'm worried about the trees. They have all this wet snow on them, and the branches/limbs have a coating of ice, so when a stiff breeze comes by, they're just going to be like, eff it. Falling on power lines, across roads, that sort of thing.
As a result, I see the power outage numbers going down this afternoon, but rising again overnight.
According to reports I have received, the roads are generally OK. Main roads are just wet; secondary roads are slushy. Some slick spots. I am receiving reports of some minor flooding on roadways (since the drains are dammed with ice), so watch out for that. Some refreezing overnight.
Temperatures will hold steady in the mid 30s today, but after sunset (about 5:30), expect temperatures to fall quickly. 25 by midnight; upper teens around Thursday morning's school commute. Temperatures won't rise above the mid 20s during the day Thursday; same thing Friday.
Chance of delay Thursday, 75%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 40%
Chance of delay Friday, 35%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 15%
Saturday looks cloudy and cold but, I think, not snowy. Storm misses us to the south.
During the first half of Sunday we could get a few inches of snow, but it clears by evening. Maybe a delay Monday, but that's it.
And beyond that?
*sighhhhh*
We could get some more wintry precipitation on Wednesday (snowstorm) and Thursday (ice storm).
And then by next weekend (2/15) we see milder temperatures.
Stay tuned!
Are we going to have off tomorrow?
Snow day crew,
If I had a nickel for every time I've heard that already today, I'd have twenty-five cents. If I had a nickel for every time I'm going to hear that today, I'd have forty-five million dollars.
The math is solid. Don't hassle me.
For tonight's storm, this is my latest thinking:
Snow begins by 9 or 10pm tonight, falling lightly at first, then heavier after midnight. Snow will mix with sleet toward morning (say, 6am) but I still think this is going to be mostly a snow event. Even if the precipitation changes to rain (which it may, briefly), the rain will freeze on surfaces and make already-treacherous secondary roads impassable. If you try to walk, you will have an ass-meeting with the sidewalk.
Look at the lines. Isn't it pretty? Wind.Snowfall totals are being overblown by some media outlets, I think. Other outlets say 4-8" for Lancaster and the western suburbs of Philly, 6-10" for Berks, Allentown, Pottsville, some of North Jersey, and NYC, and 8-12" in northeastern Pennsylvania (Scranton and the Poconos and whatnot) as well as extreme North Jersey.
I think these amounts are a bit high. What I'd say is:
2-4 inches in Philly, South Jersey, Chester County, Lancaster County, with .4 inch ice accumulation
4-6 inches in Berks, Allentown, NYC, North Jersey, with .2 inch ice accumulation
6-10 inches in northeastern Pennsylvania (with isolated areas getting a foot or more); no appreciable ice accumulation
But really, at this point, do snow totals mean a whole lot? I mean, most of us just got 8-10 inches of snow. Does it really matter if there are 4 inches or 8 inches on top of that? Unless you are insane (I'm looking at you, Dreads), you are probably very ready for winter to be over.
Back to business. Snow and/or a foul mixture falls throughout Wednesday morning, ending by about 1pm. However, unlike in a typical mixed-precipitation event, temperatures will only rise a degree or two above freezing before plummeting back into the lower 20s (and breezy) overnight.
Impacts:
Areas in the first region listed above (Philly, Chester County, etc.) will see widespread icing and power outages. Less so in the second region (Berks, Allentown, etc.), but the threat is still there.
School closing:
Chance of delay Wednesday, 85%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 70%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 0.52%
Chance of delay Thursday, 60%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 20%
Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 20s, but it will be mostly sunny, so there's that.
The next system is one that continues to bear watching. It appears that it will affect our area in the late-Saturday-night-to-Monday-afternoon time frame. And it looks like it could be a big storm.
Stay tuned for updates!
Chubby snow, and then a mess Tuesday into Wednesday.
It was still snow here as of 2pm, but will taper and end by mid-afternoon. Snow totals I predicted were a little low. Be sure to email me your measurements (your snow measurements - keep it clean) so I can pass them along to the people.
Temperatures will drop into the 20s this evening, teens overnight. During tomorrow morning's commute, expect temperatures to be around 20. There will be some issues with freezing, and with roads that still haven't been cleared, but given that the snow will end by mid-afternoon, I don't see a cancellation tomorrow. It's a classic two-hour delay scenario.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 70%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 40%
Then the Tuesday night to Wednesday storm. Here's what I see:
Precipitation begins as snow Tuesday evening around 8 or 9pm. Snow accumulates 2-4 inches, then mixes with (and changes to) sleet and freezing rain by 9am Wednesday. Models are trending colder for this event, so it appears it will be mostly snow. That is good thing, actually, as a prolonged period of icing could lead to widespread power outages and all sorts of nastiness. Ends as rain early Wednesday afternoon.
His name is David Hasselhoff, and he can sing.Rain/snow lines, temperatures in the upper atmosphere, and surface temperatures will be key here. The forecast above is what I believe will happen. (I also predicted a grinding defensive battle in the Super Bowl, with the Broncos winning 18-14.)
Chance of delay Wednesday, 80%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 60%
Sunny, breezy, and colder on Thursday. High of 30, overnight low down to 8.
Chance of delay Thursday, 35%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 10%
Sunny and cold again on Friday. High of 30.
Cloudy and cold on Saturday, but snow-free. High of 31.
Sunday into Monday looks like a significant storm. Later this week, that storm will come into better focus.
Stay!
Shit and two is eight.
My nana was fond of saying that--sometimes in a moment of idle ennui, sometimes when we were playing 500 Rummy and she got an inauspicious deal (or, "I've got a hand like a foot"), sometimes when something annoyed her. She was a rough-around-the-edges, gleefully profane little lady. I miss her.
Anyway, my nana's "shit and two is eight" is apropos here and now, given that we're getting snow tomorrow that will probably close school.
Shit and two is eight.
Precipitation will start as a little snow/sleet mix by 2 or 3am early Monday, then become all snow by 5 or 6am. Steadiest snow--and this will be a heavy, wet snow with large, juicy flakes--will fall from 8 or 9am to about 1pm. Snow tapers and ends by about 3 or 4pm. (Rain/snow line and set-up of intense banding can push totals higher in some places and greatly reduce totals for areas close by.)
Snowfall amounts:
Philly, burbs, Trenton, Lancaster County, Chester County: 5-7 inches
Reading and Berks, Allentown, South Jersey: 3-5 inches
Extreme South Jersey and Southern Delaware: 1-3 inches
Cancellation potentials (for Reading/Berks only):
Delay Monday, 15%
Cancellation Monday, 70%
Early dismissal Monday, 35%
Hoff, People's Choice Awards presenter, 1984.High will only about about 36, and that will happen early in the morning. Temperatures will fall, then hold steady just below freezing for the bulk of the day.
The roads will freeze overnight into Tuesday, so delays would be reasonable. High in the mid 30s.
Delay Tuesday, 40%
Cancellation Tuesday, 15%
The second system of the week will move through beginning about 8pm Tuesday night and continuing to early Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will begin as snow and sleet overnight, but will mix with (and change to) rain by about 7 or 8am Wednesday. So a delay is feasible, but a cancellation is less likely.
Delay Wednesday, 60%
Cancellation Wednesday, 40%
Sunny Thursday but windy and colder: high of only 31. Similar action on Friday. Saturday 2/8 looks overcast and cold (high 28), but snow-free. Sunday still looks snowy, though.
Stay tuned for ... *sighhhhh*
A quick word about the 40-inch urban legend...
Flapdoodle Gang,
So I'm tracking three storms that could bring winter weather to our area: Sunday night into Monday (likely just an inch or two, if that); Tuesday night into Wednesday (a mixed event with significant icing is looking more and more likely); and next Saturday and Sunday (a potentially larger snow event).
I'll have updated forecasting on these systems throughout the weekend.
Jörg! Keepin' in Swiss.Allow me a moment to address the recent snowpocalyptic rumors, hollered at me in the school parking lot, pinging around the hallowed halls of Mifflin, overheard in the grocery store, shared with me on Facebook, and yodeled in my general direction by an eclectic Swiss forensic accountant named Jörg.
(Alright, I made that last one up.)
One such rumor says that we are going to get 40 inches of snow next weekend. Another puts the figure at 24 inches; still another says 30 inches.
It turns out that the 40 inches figure was a cumulative one - the total precipitation expected from several storms over the course of more than a week. And it's been traced to some teenage kid who shared this map without context, causing it to go viral and everyone to go Defcon-five apeshit.
And the 24 and 30 inch totals were from one model, one run, 9 days before the event would (or would not) happen.
Here are the facts:
- The snow ratios - the ratio of snowfall to liquid precipitation - for these three storms are expected to be in the range of 10:1 to 5:1. When it's colder out - as with the powdery events earlier in January - the ratios are 15:1 and even 20:1. So in order to produce 40 inches at a 5:1 snow ratio, we'd need 8 inches of rainfall. (The average total precipitation for this area in the entire month of February is about 3 inches.)
- Even at a 10:1 snow ratio, we'd still need 4 inches. And the 24-inch prediction, at a 10:1 ratio, would still require 2.4 inches of liquid, which is kind of a lot.
- Any forecast that purports to give snow totals 9 days from the event (or even 5 days from the event) is a steaming load of ballyhoo on a bed of fiddlesticks, festooned with glimmering twaddle.
So there you have it. No 24, no 30, no 40 inches. It's best to be prepared, to be sure. (Atlanta was warned about the snow, but ignored it. And gridlock ensued.) But in reality, these potential winter weather events are likely to produce a figure far under any of those numbers.
Stay tuned for updates!