IT WILL BE COLD. (Seriously.)
I know I am known for my dramatics and hyperbole. Example: it was not just a boring meeting; it was the most soul-numbingly soporific gathering in this history of humanity. I did not simply have to wait twenty minutes in line at the deli counter at Giant; I died in that line having only been teased with the faint whiff of baked meats. And no one noticed, because they had all collapsed too.
It's gloriously-named former All-Pro linebacker Coy Bacon (no relation to the actor Kevin Bacon), who was briefly teammates with Boobie Clark in Cincinnati, making them the wackiest-named duo of teammates in the history of organized activities.But I am serious, you-all: it is going to be cold in the next week. Like, the coldest temperatures of the year. Like, even people from Fargo, North Dakota, would be, like, Oh yah, don't ya know, it's frickin' cold here. I'm goin' home and heatin' up a casserole.
First issue is that we could see some slippery spots tomorrow morning as temperatures get down to the low 20s and untreated surfaces refreeze. It's not a huge hazard, but it could be enough for scattered delays.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 22%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 6%
Thursday is cloudy with a few snow showers in the afternoon. Just a coating from this, but we could see some travel issues on the Thursday evening commute.
Friday is the start of that arctic cold I was talking about. We start the day in the lower teens with wind chills in the -5 to -10 range. We only get into the upper teens in the afternoon, with wind chills in the 0 to +5 range.
Chance of cold-weather delay Friday, 16%
Chance of cold-weather cancellation Friday, 3%
Saturday will be overcast and cold (but not quite as cold): highs in the mid 20s and windy (but not quite as windy). Wind chills will be in the teens during the day. Then a blast of arctic holy-shit cold will move in. Lows overnight from Saturday to Sunday will be about 8 with wind chills in the -10 to -15 range. Also, snow is likely on Saturday, but right now it looks like flurries and snow showers that won't amount to much.
Sunday, you've got to be kidding me. The high on Sunday is going to be 16. Really windy too, just for shits and giggles. (Which reminds me of something my Nana used to say, a cautionary proverb, if you will: "It's all shits and giggles until someone giggles and shits." She was a woman of refined expression and profound wisdom.)
Overnight Sunday into Monday, son of a bitch, the actual temperatures are going to get down to -3. Is it still going to be windy, Monsoon? You bet your frozen ass it is. Well then what is that going to do to the wind chills? The wind chills on Monday morning will be -25 to -30.
Monday is only going get into the mid teens (with wind chills around zero). So I think:
Chance of cold-weather delay Monday, 77%
Chance of cold-weather cancellation Monday, 40%
And then Tuesday is another potential storm, but I literally can't even.
Then on Wednesday and Thursday, we punch through the arctic malaise with a tropical blast that will send temperatures skyrocketing into the upper 20s and low 30s.
Stay tuned for updates!
Icy slippingness.
That is a Members Only jacket with the sleeves pushed up over the sleeves of his turtleneck. And that is a generous-sized belt buckle you see. And that is a smoldering glower daring you to say what you are thinking.Freezing rain, slippery walkways, and treacherous back roads have made an early dismissal that seemed pointless mid-afternoon seem prescient.
We'll see up to a half-inch of ice accumulation on cars and untreated surfaces in most places. Light sleet (but mostly snow) will continue between now (about 7pm) and 1 or 2am. Roads will still be slippery early tomorrow, particularly during the morning commute (before the sun comes up). So...
Chance of delay Tuesday, 64%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 21%
Snow showers are possible late Wednesday night through Thursday night as another clipper comes through. Then it gets super cold. The wind chills will be well below zero. Overnight lows Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday night, Sunday night, AND Monday night will be in the single digits.
A few snow showers on Saturday 2/14, and then a more substantial snow event is possible on Tuesday 2/17. After Thursday evening (2/12), I don't see temperatures going above freezing until 2/19! That's at least a week below zero. So yeah.
Stay tuned for updates!
Update: Monday 2/9/15
David Hasselhoff wields a guitar like a scimitar in this undated photo. That Hasselhoff has never won a Grammy is as damning an indictment of the contemporary music industry as I have ever heard.First, allow me to invite you to my live-blogging event this evening starting at 8pm EST. I will be making snarky comments about the 2015 Grammy Awards and, I would imagine, lamenting the sorry state of the music industry. I will do so until I can take no more and/or I get tired. (You can make comments too, or reply to my comments.)
So, the weather: This is still feeling like a mainly rain event.
Rain will begin at or just before midnight. It will be mostly light. (The rain will be light. The sky will be dark until just after 7am Monday, when the sun will rise. Actually, the earth will rotate back around so the sun is again in view. Are you still reading this?)
Mixing will start around 8 or 9am - sleet will produce a slick coating on sidewalks and bridges, mainly. I don't see huge travel messes, but still, use caution. You could be driving, like, La-la-la, the road is just wet, there is no ice, I got this and then zzzzzoooop you slide a bit on an icy patch and you pee in your pants a little bit and white-knuckle it the rest of the way home.
Temperatures will hold steady right around freezing until 8-10pm, when they'll drop down below 30.
The last little bit of precipitation from this system--falling from about 4 to 8pm Monday--may even fall as some wet snow, accumulating a half-inch at most.
So my call for delays and whatnot:
Chance of delay Monday, 14%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 31%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 18%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 3%
Tuesday turns out sunny and a little bit breezy with highs in the mid 30s.
Wednesday, too.
Thursday is overcast with the chance of snow, but right now it just looks like scattered snow showers skirting the area.
Then it gets really cold with a low Thursday into Friday of 4 degrees, and a high on Friday of just 18 (and really windy too). Friday night into Saturday we could even see temperatures dip below zero (not wind chills, mind you; temperatures).
Balls-coldness continues right on through the weekend, actually, and we could see a bit of snow on Tuesday 2/17.
And then that's it, I think. No more winter.
Stay tuned for updates!
Sunday-Monday forecast
The lingering, excruciating, Brady Bunch-esque eye contact; the stache-mullet combo; the jumper; the sensible shoes; the bad dye job; the ill-fitting double-breasted suit; the pinky ring: this awkward family photo truly has it all.This looks like a mixed precipitation event for us, especially on the back end.
Sunday late afternoon we'll see some rain start. Temperatures will be at or above 40, so it will just be plain rain. And it's scattered showers, not a washout.
Sleet and wet snow mix in overnight Sunday into Monday. Monday morning commute could be dicey. Over all, though, I think this is mainly a rain event for us--with little to no accumulation or travel impacts.
(Northeast Pennsylvania and on into New England will get mostly snow with this storm.)
So my preliminary call is:
Chance of delay Monday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 20%
I don't see anything else for next week in terms of wintry precipitation or potential school delays/cancellations.
Stay tuned for updates as the storm's track and potency come into greater focus.
Little one tonight, bigger one Sunday?
Just a little clipper on the way - will only bring us a half-inch to inch of light snow. Timing is the potential problem: 2am to 10am, which means it could eff up the morning commute. Temperatures will fall from 32 around midnight to 20 by noon on Thursday, then to 10 by midnight on Thursday, then to 5 by 6am Friday, then to -25 by Friday at noon.
That last one, I made up.
Chance of delay Thursday, 42%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 17%
Chance of delay Friday, 22%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 6%
Preliminary call for delay Monday, 75%
Preliminary call for cancellation Monday, 39%
Warmer on Saturday, though. High of 36.
Then maybe some snow from late Sunday evening into Monday afternoon. Details are up in the air (weather pun intended!) but right now I'd say 3-6 inches of accumulation.
A couple more potential storms next week bear watching.
Keep tuned in! I mean, stay tuned for updates!
Post-storm concerns: flash freezing, flooding, slickness
First, the roads are crap: slushy and gross. And the snow is preventing drainage, so the rain will create ponding on roadways and isolated flooding.
And then the flash freeze (which is not "Freeze Frame" by J. Geils Band, though now that song is in your head).
Temperatures will begin falling from 36 around 1pm to 28 by 3pm ... to 20 by 6pm (sunset at 5:23pm will hurry along this precipitous drop) ... to 10 by Tuesday morning’s commute.
Untreated surfaces (like certain parking lots I schlopped through this morning) will have lots of ponding and slick surfaces due to rapid freezing. Use caution when driving this evening and tomorrow morning.
Chance of early dismissal Monday, 9.3%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 63.33%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 2.55%
Wednesday night into Thursday – some models see a storm but right now it’s just looking like flurries or light snow showers.
Something maybe on Sunday 2/8.
Stay tuned for updates...
Winter Storm Ψ: Sunday update!
The folks over at The Weather Channel have dubbed this Winter Storm Linus, which has headline writers in the midwest unable to resist such allusive puns as "Linus Blankets Detroit" and "Good Grief!" et al. I love a good play on words, so I consider this a bit of a missed opportunity.
But I shall soldier on with Winter Storm Ψ.
That hair and outfit are twin travesties, but this kid is working it. You go, clarinet-playing mullet sequin kid.For us in Berks, some outlets are backing off their original forecasts, but I think a downgrade is premature at this point. Perhaps some forecasters are gunshy because of last weekend's blown forecast. Perhaps some forecasters should change their draws and cry for they mommies.
I see 4-6 inches for us in Berks and the Lehigh Valley. Light snow has begun (as of 5pm here in Berks) and will intensify overnight. We'll see a little freezing rain and sleet mix in overnight (between 2 and 8am, off and on), then temperatures will plummet. From a noontime high of 35 we'll plunge to near 20 by 6pm and to the single digits by daybreak on Tuesday.
For Philly, Chester and Delaware Counties, south Jersey and Delaware (the actual state), look for accumulations in the range of 1-2 inches and more freezing rain and plain rain than actual snow.
Look at this beauty. (It's the radar.)
So my predictions for school in Berks tomorrow:
Chance of delay, 60.01%
Chance of cancellation, 81.79%
Stay tuned for updates!
Winter Storm Ψ: Saturday update!
So there are some variables at play with Winter Storm Ψ (pronounced psai, rhymes with "high" - you do pronounce the "p," but don't be obnoxious about it. Just a little hint of it. The faintest whiff of p. Wait, no.), including warmer air that may mix in aloft. Who gets all snow, and who gets snow-rain-snow? And who gets nothing? And what is a rhetorical question?
For Philly and the immediately northern and western suburbs, expect light snow to start by 5-6pm, then really gets going after 10pm. A bit of mixing (rain) toward the Monday AM commute, but this is not good news; rain will freeze to surfaces and actually serve to make travel even more hazardous. Precipitation transitions back to snow and tapers after noon on Monday. Accumulations for this region are 4-6 inches.
For south Jersey and Delaware, we'll see snow start about the same time as above, but the period of rain will be more extensive: about midnight to 6am. So because of this extended rain period, we'll see fewer travel delays and lower accumulations in this region (2-4 inches).
For Berks, Lehigh, and Schuylkill Counties--as well as much of north Jersey--we'll see almost all snow with a little bit of ice mixed in early Monday morning. Accumulations will be 6-8 inches (with isolated pockets getting higher amounts where heavy banding sets up).
For Punsxutawney, expect snow by the evening, with lake effect snow moving in by mid-day Sunday and continuing through Monday. Monday will begin with one disc-jockey annoying another by playing Sonny and Cher's "I Got You Babe." You will make idle chit-chat with the innkeeper, Ned Ryerson will stop you on the street, you will step in a puddle, you will make your way to Gobbler's Knob, you will drolly say, "This is one time when television really fails to capture the true excitement of a large squirrel predicting the weather." The blizzard that you predicted will miss us will actually shut down the interstate, stopping Larry, Rita, and Phil in the van. You will awaken the next day to "I Got You Babe" and do it all over again. Along the way, you'll become a piano virtuoso and ice sculptor.
Winds picking up (and temperatures dropping) throughout the day on Monday. Very windy and cold overnight from Monday into Tuesday with a low of, like, 0. (Tuesday morning commute wind chill: negative teens.)
Chance of delay Monday, 36.5%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 89.98%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 72.2%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 28.4%
It terms of future winter weather, I don't see anything potentially problematic until around mid-month.
Stay tuned for updates!
Winter Storm Ψ: Just the facts.
Ψ is the Greek letter "psi," the 23rd letter of the Greek alphabet. PSI (pounds per square inch) is also the unit of measurement for air pressure inside something inflated, like a football. (There is no measurement for overinflated egos.) And since the Super Bowl is the most overblown, underinflated event in our culture--matched only, perhaps, by the overhyped blizzard--it seemed apropos.
I just wanted to give you a sense of my thinking on the impending storm before the weekend; more precise timing, discussion of differences in regions, and fine-tuning will appear in updates between now and Sunday afternoon.
So here's what to expect on Sunday-Monday:
Light snow showers begin around 3-4pm Sunday. (Game time is 6:30pm EST, for your reference.) Steadier snow by 7 or 8pm. Snow continues overnight into Monday, beginning to taper off by about 3pm Monday.
Accumulations will generally be in the range of 6-8 inches.
Tuesday won't have any snow, but temperatures overnight from Monday into Tuesday will be the coldest of the season: lows around 0.
So my early calls for school percentages:
Chance of delay Monday, 31.4%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 88.8%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 62.1%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 21.7%
Stay tuned for updates!
A quick one about a quick one
I don't know these people--but I want to.The clipper: flurries / light snow showers could start as early as 3 or 4pm, but the snow won't begin in earnest until about 7 or 8pm or later. Snow off and on at night and overnight. Three-quarters of an inch to an inch and seven-eighths of total accumulation. Snow tapers by 4 or 5am.
Travel impacts will generally be minor, but tomorrow morning's commute could be a bit sketchy. Temps will be in the upper 20s, winds will be kicking up, there will be a bit of blowing snow, and wind chills will be in the teens.
Chance of delay Friday, 37.7%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 16.443%
Friday will turn out overcast and colder with highs in the upper 20s and overnight lows in the single digits (with wind chills below zero).
High on Saturday will only be 22. Sunday will be just as cold with a chance of snow Sunday evening into Monday morning. (More to come on that system, but right now I think it plays as a 3-4 inch event that delays schools on Monday.)
Even colder after that: high only in the teens on Monday and Tuesday, and it stays below freezing for the rest of next week.
Stay tuned for updates!
What else is there to do?
"Your forecast was off by thiiiiiiiis much."In the face of a major bust, I could throw myself at your mercy or use vaguely ribald terms like "dry slot" and "moisture cutoff," but instead I will just move ahead.
What else is there to do? I am a (pretend) meteorologist. So allow me to meteorologize.
First, it's cold as balls outside. That much is plain to anyone who has ventured out this evening. To quantify it: we're at 22 degrees right now. It will get down to 12 (twelve! a single-syllable number) overnight. Wind chills will be below zero even through Wednesday morning's commute.
On Wednesday, it will only get up to 27, with wind chills in the teens.
Yes, it's been a two-Hoff kind of day. Go ahead, judge me.Thursday brings a chance of snow, thanks to another clipper. Expect snow to start 4 or 5pm Thursday and continue intermittently overnight and into the wee hours of Friday morning (maybe 2 or 3am). Snow will be light and will accumulate only an inch or two, but we could see a delay out of it.
Chance of early dismissal Thursday, 17.98%
Chance of delay Friday, 32.9%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 11.1%
Colder toward the weekend. Very windy on Friday with a high of 31. Even colder on Saturday (high of 22) and Sunday (high of 28). Chance of snow from late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, but I can't even go there yet. Like, emotionally. I will begin to look more seriously at it on Thursday. (I am looking forward to using the Super Bowl as a springboard for storm name, if it turns out to be anything.)
Looking ahead, Thursday 2/5 and Friday 2/6 look potentially winter weathery.
Stay tuned for updates!
Monday mid-afternoon update
It's time for "nowcasting," which is a fairly recent meteorological term and a pretty juicy paradox. Basically, it means, describing what is happening and just about to happen, but using weathery, sciencey terms to sound like we knew it all along.
So, to nowcast: The blizzard is trending east, which means less snow for us in Berks.
Still looking at quite a lot of snow for NYC, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire: more than two feet in some places within that range. (The record set in the blizzard of 1947, which dropped 26.4 inches on Central Park, may be challenged.)
Melancholy Hoff.North Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania, suburban New York, and into Maine will see 12-16 inches.
Philly and south Jersey look to be in the 8-10 inch range.
The immediate suburbs (Delaware, Montgomery, and Bucks Counties) look to be in the 4-6 inch range.
And then it drops off. It's not clear where the boundary will set up, but it appears to be in western Delaware County in a longitudinal line (that's running north and south) from that point. Everything to the east of that boundary will get 4-6 inches. Everything to the west will get an inch or two at most.
So that puts the Lehigh Valley, Berks and Lancaster Counties, and even Chester County in the little-or-no-snow category.
For us, blowing/drifting will be concerns, so a delay is still likely--but an outright snow day Tuesday is looking less likely.
So, updated percentages:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 41%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 16%
Of course, I will continue to monitor the situation closely and will keep you posted on any changes...
Stay tuned for updates!
Sunday morning update on Mon-Tue!
Right into it, then.
The clipper gives us 3-4 inches of snow. We may see some flurries/light snow showers late Sunday night (9-10pm) but the snow doesn't begin in earnest until the overnight hours (maybe 1-2am). Snow continues on and off through mid to late Monday afternoon, when there should be a break in the precipitation.
Then around 6-8pm Monday, we'll see the Nor'easter crank up. Current guidance suggests that the most dire impacts will be in north Jersey, NYC, and New England, where more than a foot of wind-driven snow is likely. Philly, South Jersey, Bucks, Chester, and Montgomery Counties will get an additional 6-8 inches of accumulation, giving them 9-12 between late Sunday night and Tuesday afternoon.
A message brought to you by your local grocer.In Berks and Lancaster Counties, we appear to be toward the outskirts of this storm, so we're not looking at a direct hit. But we can still expect an additional 4-6 inches, so the storm total (from late Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon) is 6-10 inches.
In all the areas affected by the storm--from Bally to Bridesburg to Burlington to Brooklyn to Boston to Bangor--expect blizzard or near-blizzard conditions: wind-driven snow, lots of drifting, low visibilities, and some power outages. It will cold as well: high Monday of 27; high Tuesday of 23. Still windy and cold on Wednesday, but sunny.
And then we're watching something for Friday 1/30.
Percentages:
Chance of delay Monday, 94%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 78%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 55%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 70%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 24%
Stay tuned for updates!
A jab, then a haymaker?
A few things to talk to you about:
I couldn't bring myself to taint my blog with a picture of the foul Donald Duck. Instead, I present you with an image of David Hasselhoff as Michael Knight, looking quizzically at Donald Duck (offscreen).1. Donald Duck creeps me out. The dead eyes, the pantslessness, the volatile, hair-trigger temper - is this a children's character or my drunk uncle?
2. I clamored for more "likes" on Facebook to get to 800 and promised untold riches to the 800th. Then I went to sleep. I am now at 816 "likes" and counting, and have no way of determining who the 800th was. My deepest apologies for this lapse. Also, "like" my Facebook page.
3. My prediction for last night's storm was a little low. Heavier banding set up in a lot of places and the storm got here more quickly (making it an all-snow event rather than a snow-sleet-rain event for most of us).
4. We are getting some more, my good people.
First, a clipper comes through. Snow begins by 9 or 10pm Sunday night, continuing on and off throughout the night. Steadiest snow will be Monday morning between 6am and noon. (This is the titular "jab.")
Then, the system churns off the coast and becomes a Nor'easter, which could then slam us. (This is the titular "haymaker"--a term that derives from the use of a scythe with a wide, sweeping stroke to, literally, make hay.) Some forecast models are painting a proper blizzard here: 8-12 inches or more of light, fluffy snow, blown around by high winds. I'm not ready to call this a sure thing, though it does bear watching.
So as of Saturday night at 9pm EST, here are my percentages:
Chance of delay Monday, 92%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 67%
Chance of delay Tuesday, 21%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 44%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 56%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 30%
Stay tuned for updates--they will surely be forthcoming.
Winter Storm Ignacio.
Actually, The Weather Channel is calling it Iola, but I don't care for that name, and as you know, when I think something is misnamed--person, place, or thing--I will rechristen it. Nicole becomes Carolyn. Emily becomes Cindy. Quinn becomes Stanley. Jill becomes Kelsey. Brent becomes Brandon. Whatnot.
Snow arrives 10pm-midnight Friday. Surface temperatures will be right at or just above the freezing mark (32 for quick reference) throughout the storm, so it's going to be tricky predicting what type of precipitation will fall from place to place, hour to hour.
I am not punking out; I am just telling you what I'm up against.
Snow, then, beginning 10-12pm Friday and continuing through mid-morning Saturday, when it will mix briefly with sleet, then turn over to plain rain by noon, after which we'll see drizzle and flurries through mid-afternoon.
Total accumulation: I'm sticking with 3-4 inches for most of us (Berks, Lehigh, Bucks, Lancaster). Maybe an inch or two for Philly and South Jersey. Maybe a hair more--5 and three-quarters?--in Lebanon, Schuylkill, Northampton, Dauphin.
Travel impacts: Throughout Saturday morning, travel will be shitty over most of the region. Saturday afternoon and evening will be far better, then on Saturday night (after, say, 10 or 11pm) temperatures will fall back below freezing and slick spots will develop once again.
On Sunday night into Monday, we're looking at a clipper system moving through. It will accumulate only 2-3 inches generally, but (the way it looks now) the timing and overall balls-coldness (highs in the 20s with wind chills in the low teens--then falling throughout the day) will virtually guarantee a snow day.
Of course...
stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon: I may have jumped the gun with the Nor'beaster©™® moniker, but I reserve the right to use it later
Alright, so it's looking less dire for Friday night / Saturday and the Nor'beaster©™®. Still a Nor'easter, and still some potential travel issues, but the system lacks the blocking, surface temperatures, and upper atmosphere juju to make it truly epic.
What I think:
Obligatory strange, unsettling Hasselhoff picSnow arrives late Friday night, like after midnight. Continues in to Saturday morning, when we'll see a changeover to a brief period of snow/sleet before turning to all rain east to west. Accumulation and travel issues will occur mainly between midnight Friday and 9-10am Saturday. Then rain til early evening, then flurries, then that's it. We're looking at 3-4 inches at most (Lehigh Valley, Berks, Bucks) and 1-2 inches (Philly, burbs) and a coating to an inch (shore).
Overcast on Sunday but no snow and temperatures reaching 40. Monday brings a clipper system that's quite similar to the one that hit us yesterday. 2-3 inches generally and a better-than-good chance of school early dismissals and/or cancellations. (Look for updates on this one over the weekend.) High Monday doesn't even reach freezing (with wind that'll make it feel like the teens); low gets down in to the lower teens (with wind that'll make it feel like the single digits).
Stay tuned for updates!
Clipper moving out ... Nor'beaster©™® moving in?
Clipper is on its way out for most of us, already gone for others. An inch or two at most (and trace amounts in some areas where dry pockets set up) with lots of early dismissals in its wake.
Overnight we'll see temperatures drop into the mid 20s. Overnight and into Thursday morning we will see pockets of freezing fog, which sucks. It's fog (which is already treacherous) freezing into little crystals and making slickness. So:
Chance of delay Thursday, 62.5%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 7.8%
Both Thursday and Friday will turn out partly sunny with highs in the upper 30s, lows in the lower 20s.
Then on Saturday we're looking at the potential for a major coastal storm that could drop a foot of heavy, wet snow. A myriad of factors remain to be resolved, not the least of which are track and temperatures throughout the atmosphere. Still, it
.
Beyond that, I've got my eye on the potential for accumulating snow and scheduling delays on Monday 1/26 to Tuesday 1/27 as well as Friday 1/30.
The first week of February looks frigid.
Stay tuned for updates!
CLIPPER CALL
So we're looking at a little snowstorm.
Snow develops by 11am (ish). Heaviest snow will be from about 1:45 to 4:53. Then tapering through the evening.
Accumulations will be in the range of 2-2.8 inches (Berks, Lehigh, Schuylkill, Bucks Counties) and a coating to 1.88 inches in Philadelphia, Montgomery, Chester, and Lancaster Counties.
He is saying, "Choooooch."So we won't see any snow by AM commute, but we could see some early dismissals out of this.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 4%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 22.77%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 63%
Chance of delay Thursday, 36.777%
Chance of actress Linda Blair, former Journey frontman Steve Perry, and Philadelphia Phillie Carlos "Chooch" Ruiz having birthdays on Thursday, 100%
Travel will be slippery throughout the region, especially in the afternoon and early evening. Be careful.
Looking at a coastal storm for the weekend that could be our first major snowmaker of the season. We're still 4 days out (it would hit Saturday), but this bears watching.
A bear, watching.
Stay tuned for updates!
The perfect storm of travel nightmares.
Slippery travel is most dangerous when motorists are unaware of the potential for problems. Such was the case this morning when precipitation began earlier than forecast--when surfaces temperatures were still at or below freezing--and turned roads and driveways (and especially bridges and overpasses) into a tractionless hellscape of icy white knuckles. Many people slowed down, put on the hazards, and left plenty of stopping distance--but in a lot of cases, none of it mattered. Scores of roads in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland were host to hundreds of crashes, some fatal.
Lesson: if you have to go out in poor travel conditions, take it easy. If you have four-wheel drive, remember that many others do not. Don't be an asshole, generally. And if you can stay home, do it.
So what delights await us for the remainder of January and the first few days of February?
Here.
Monday 1/19 will be partly sunny and quite windy. Temperatures will get in to the upper 30s, but wind chills will be in the low to mid 20s. Overnight, we'll get down to 24 (with wind chills in the teens).
Tuesday 1/20 looks mostly cloudy and seasonably cold (highs in the mid 30s) but much less windy. So it'll actually feel milder.
Wednesday 1/21 brings more thick clouds and a chance for snow. It's a fast-moving clipper system that will give us just an inch or two, but the timing--overnight and into Wednesday morning's commute--could be problematic. (Updates to follow, including closing/delay percentages.)
Sunny and clear on Thursday 1/22 with seasonable highs in the mid 30s; overnight lows will be in the low 20s.
Partly sunny and a wee bit colder on Friday 1/23.
The weekend looks nice. Partly cloudy and seasonable with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the low 20s.
The last week of January looks cold (highs in the 20s generally) with snow possible in the 29th-30th time frame.
Maybe a snow/ice event on February 2nd-3rd, too. The first ten days of February, in fact, seem potentially very active.
And just looking ahead, Kim Kardashian's giant ass will cause a complete solar eclipse on February 12th.
Stay tuned for updates!
A quick one: delay tomorrow?
After today's sleet - freezing rain - rain event, what is in store for the coming week?
Today's temperatures reached the upper 30s, but are falling precipitously as we speak. (As I type. You know what I mean.) It's 34 and foggy right now; by tomorrow morning's commute we'll see temperatures in the mid 20s with a stiff northern breeze making it feel like the teens. That will make for a rapid freeze-up, and the water left on roadways will make travel slippery before dawn. So I'm calling:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 30%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 4%
Wind chills overnight (Tuesday into Wednesday) will be around zero.
Cold all week, though not nearly as windy.
Milder by the weekend, when we'll have highs in the mid 40s.
Next good chance of snow or related action will be January 21st - 22nd.
Stay tuned for updates!