This crap about Friday.
So it's going to snow.
The vernal equinox at 6:45pm on Friday 3/20. At that moment, spring begins. And at that moment, it will be wet snowing / raining and it will be 34 degrees. It is a cruel, prickish joke that Mother Nature is pulling.
Snow begins about 6 or 7am Friday, spreading into the area from the southwest. Snow continues on and off until 3 or 4pm, when it mixes with rain. Precipitation changes back to snow before ending round about midnight.
Accumulation: an inch or two, mostly slush on the roads; the bulk of the accumulation will be on the grass and whatnot. The onset before dawn (when paved surfaces are at their coldest) could impact the morning commute. The sun angle and surface temperature will generally prevent travel issues in the afternoon and evening. We may see some slippery spots reemerge during the late evening.
A side note: it is kind of, really, awfully depressing to be talking about snow on March 18th. *sigh*
Chance of delay Friday, 19%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 9%
Chance of early dismissal Friday, 37%
Saturday will start cold (32 degrees at dawn), but temperatures will rise rapidly: 40 by noon, 50 by 6pm. So any snow that accumulates Friday will melt Saturday.
And then Sunday is windy and cold again, much like today (Wednesday 3/18).
Here's something, though. Friday is Ovid's 2058th birthday. (He died 1998 years ago, though.) He wrote the Metamorphoses, which is a super-long poem that chronicles historical stuff and is known to have inspired Dante, Chaucer, Spenser, Shakespeare, and Stephenie Meyer. In that work, he said, "Be patient and tough; one day this pain will be useful to you." So that is profound.
Ovid, pensive.
Stay tuned for updates!
The vicissitudes of mid-March...
Hey there - just a brief forecast about the coming week. Some of you have been hearing about the potential for wintry precipitation on Friday, so here's the straight dope.
Note: the origin of this phrase comes from betting on the ponies. When stimulants had been given to racehorses (that is, they had been doped), gamblers wanted to know about it. The term "straight dope" started as a phrase describing what had been given to those poor animals, then came to mean the (very salient) information itself.
But, as always, I digress.
David Hasselhoff has been cast in Sharknado 3, due out (on Syfy) this summer. It's apparently set in Washington, D.C. and features Mark Cuban (the outspoken billionaire Dallas Mavericks owner) as the President and Ann Coulter (the hatemongering right-wing pundit/columnist/she-devil) as the Vice President. Whatever. Hasselhoff!!!
Tuesday 3/17 begins with a few showers and overcast skies, reaching a high in the mid to upper 50s by early afternoon. Then temperatures fall, winds kick up, and we get a few degrees below freezing by early Wednesday morning.
Wednesday looks windy and colder with highs only in the upper 30s.
Thursday is partly sunny and a bit milder with highs in the mid 40s.
Precipitation moves in late Thursday night into Friday. Surface temperatures will be above freezing, but cold air in the upper atmosphere could bring us some wintry precipitation. Right now I'd say we get mainly rain with a bit of wet snow (melting on surfaces) mixed in. We'd really need snow to fall heavily to accumulate at this time of year, and this won't be heavy. I think it's no big deal.
Chance of delay Friday, 17%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 3.75%
Saturday gets milder (high in the low 50s) but is breezy and overcast generally. A few rain showers are possible overnight into Sunday.
Colder, then: highs in the 40s and lows around freezing on Sunday and Monday. And Tuesday.
Stay tuned for updates!
A very little bit of freezing rain possible in the AM...
So the National Weather Service has put out an advisory or whatever, and I thought I should comment on it.
That is what could happen:
Overnight temps get below freezing, and light freezing rain showers between 2 and 6am would create an icy glaze on roads and sidewalks. And people would be like, "Do de do, spring has sprung, I'm not fully awake, but here I go to work--shit, I'm down." And they would fall on their asses.
Or toodling along to work in the drizzle and like, "Ah, balls, case of the Mondays, blah--shit, ice." And then your car skids.
Happy 44th birthday on Monday to Emmanuel Lewis, who played the title character in the 80s sitcom Webster, which was a truly terrible show that I nonetheless have inexplicable nostalgia for.The thing is, though, I don't think any of this is going to happen.
Chance of delay Monday, 22%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 0.0075%
And then Monday ends up near 50 with partly sunny skies.
Overcast with a little rain on Tuesday. High again near 50.
Wednesday and Thursday look mostly sunny with highs at (or just above) 50.
Rainy Friday, but no frozen precipitation.
We may even see the sixties next week (the 16th to the 20th)! And then we can all say it's too warm, where is spring, and crap.
Stay tuned for updates!
The last of the single digits
David Hasselhoff has listed his luxury villa in Calabasas, California, for $2.3 million. It has a "sexy bathroom" and everything. I have no idea what that means, but it sounds Hoff-some.A lot of the snow/ice on the roads melted today in the sunshine, but as temperatures get down to 5 overnight, there will be lots of refreezing, especially on secondary roads, in parking lots that weren't completely cleared, and sidewalks.
Here's the encouraging bit: this is the last time we'll get down to the single digits until next winter.
The high on Saturday gets all the way up to 38; we get up to 42 on Sunday.
40s on Monday and Tuesday. 50s on Wednesday and Thursday.
40s on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
The next chance of wintry precipitation I see is mid-March.
Sorry, I meant mid-November.
Stay tuned for updates!
End of the storm; delay tomorrow?
Snow should begin to taper off by 1 or 2pm, ending completely by 3 or 4pm.
We have six inches of accumulation; I have heard of 7+ in the Exton area and some parts of Montgomery County. Please send snow measurements, observed travel conditions, and outage information to me via email or via my Facebook page.
It gets really, really cold - especially for March - overnight. I think most places get down to 4, and wind chills will be below zero until about 10-11am Friday.
Chance of delay Friday, 73%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 28%
Stay tuned for updates!
Bit of a lowball, then.
From my last forecast:
Chance of delay Wednesday, 28%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 6%
Well, shit.
Happy wrongness, though.
Bit of drizzle and a few (rain) showers throughout the day today. Temps hold steady in the mid to upper 30s and don't begin to fall until 10pm(ish), so road conditions should improve throughout the day.
Snow starts by midnight and continues until about noon Thursday, when it will taper to snow showers and flurries in the early afternoon.
I'm sticking with the call of 4-6 inches generally for Berks. Chester County, Delaware County, Lancaster County, Philly, and points south and east appear to be in the bullseye of this thing: 6-10 inches. The Lehigh Valley, the Poconos, and North Jersey - which have been in the bullseye for many other storms - get only a few inches from this system.
Look at the size of this thing. It covers, like, 20 states. And it's moving right toward us.Temperatures fall from 32 at midnight to 25 at 6am to 20 by noon - and then into the single digits after sunset Thursday. So precipitation type is not going to be a concern with this storm - it's all snow.
Chance of delay Thursday, 94%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 85%
Friday looks sunny and cold.
Chance of delay Friday, 34%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 11%
Stay tuned for updates!
The finale of the winter.
Sloppy, icy, sleety mess out there. After midnight, surface temperatures rise above freezing and this all turns to plain rain. Still a little slickness possible through the morning commute because of how cold the ground is and whatnot. But then the rest of Wednesday is just light to moderate rainfall and temperatures reaching 40.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 28%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 6%
And then by maybe 8 or 9pm Wednesday, precipitation begins to mix with (and then change over to) sleet. After midnight, the sleet mixes with (and then changes to) snow. Snow continues throughout Thursday morning, tapers by noon, and ends by 2pm.
In Berks, we get 4-6 inches of accumulation. I think the bigger totals stay south of us - Delaware, Maryland, and South Jersey look to get 10 inches.
Chance of delay Thursday, 82%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 71%
Temperatures plummet throughout the day Thursday and reach all the way down to 6 early Friday morning, and then only getting up to 26 on Friday.
Chance of delay Friday, 32%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 4%
Saturday is upper 30s, and then Sunday temperatures are in the 40s.
Stay tuned for updates!
Wintry action this week, then it ends. I promise.
Monsoon is ill. The ears, the throat, the nose. So this shall be brief.
On Tuesday, snow will develop by 3 or 4pm, accumulating a coating to an inch. The snow will change to sleet and freezing rain pretty quickly - maybe around 5 or 6 and then changing to plain rain by midnight. Travel in the evening (4 or 5 through 9 or 10) will be treacherous. The ground is frozen, so it'll be slick. And over the weekend, we all saw how quickly conditions can deteriorate, even with very little snow or ice.
Wednesday is rainy all day, but it's plain rain. Temperatures get up to the low 40s.
After midnight on Thursday, temperatures will plunge back below freezing. In fact, temperatures will fall through the 20s during the day and through the teens at night. And it'll be windy. Thursday morning looks snowy - probably the last of the season. Right now it looks like 3-5 inches and a probable delay.
Chance of delay Thursday, 72%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 31%
And then Friday is sunny and cold with highs around 30.
And then the weekend: highs in the low to mid 40s, sunny and clear.
Stay tuned for updates!
Last gasps of winter...
March: it comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb.Right now, it is snowing. I say that as an experienced faux-meteorologist, so you can be sure it is probably true.
Wait! Now a bit of sleet is starting to mix in. That's due to warmer air aloft; it's still in the mid 20s at the surface.
The roads are horrible. I mean, people sliding all over the place, cars into embankments, that sort of thing. (Be sure to email me or visit my Facebook page to share travel conditions, snow/ice totals, and the like.)
We have a good two and a half inches out there. I think most of us will be in the range of 3-4 inches by the time all is said and done.
When will it be said and done? Shortly after midnight.
During Monday morning's commute, temperatures will be in the upper 20s, so that's still below freezing, and I expect the roads to be shitty right through mid morning on Monday. After sunrise (and as temperatures soar toward the afternoon high of 31), we'll see some melting and much improved road conditions. Skies clear by afternoon.
Chance of delay Monday, 40%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 2%
Hasselhoff: he will kick you in the ass; you will be delighted and ask for an encore.Then Tuesday, surface temperatures will hover right around freezing, so the precipitation we get will be a mixy mess. Starting around 2-3pm, we'll see snow and sleet. Then freezing rain and plain rain at night.
Temperatures are in the mid 30s by Wednesday morning's commute, and will reach a high in the mid 40s by the afternoon! Then temperatures plunge once again, falling from freezing at midnight through the 20s during the day on Thursday, and finally to the upper single digits in Friday's wee hours. (Oh, and there may be some light snow showers or flurries on Thursday.)
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 18%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 34%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 3%
Only gets up to 30 on Friday.
Really nice weekend, though. Sunny, highs in the mid 40s, just fantastic.
So we'll have to deal with wintry precipitation and temperatures through this coming week, but I think it's smooth sailing come Saturday 3/7.
Stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon salutes Salute!
The last thing one expects to find in a sleepy strip mall in the middle of Sinking Spring, PA is a dynamic, sophisticated, scrumptious, authentic Italian restaurant. (One would expect to find a tanning place, a secondhand shop run by a ministry, a used furniture store, and some sort of Asian buffet - anything willing to pay the cut-rate rent on a sliver-sized parcel in a dying shopping center. But not a really, really good Italian restaurant.)
But that's just what Salute (sah-LOO-tay) Ristorante Italiano is: a truly great Italian restaurant, right here in Berks County.
It's best to make reservations, especially on the weekend - our server told us they get in the neighborhood of 150 reservations on Friday and Saturday nights (that's 150 each night) with no advertising.
That's right: Salute, which opened November 20th (Monsoon's birthday) of 2014, has survived--nay, thrived--on word-of-mouth recommendations only.
So let me add my mouth to this.
(I fully acknowledge that just sounded wrong. I will rephrase.)
So let me add my words to this mouth-party.
(Maybe I will just move on.)
The place was hopping by 5:00. All staff members were dressed in crisp black outfits and everyone who greeted us was warm and solicitous.
The chef is a guy named Peppe Agliano, and if that name sounds authentically Italian, it's because it is. He is an actual Italian person who is from Sicily, which is in actual Italy.
It's got a fancy outer entrance that, I think, is designed to cut down on the coldness seeping in, but also to make sure you realize that the place you're going into is not your ordinary little shabby strip-mall offering. It's a proper restaurant (that's what "ristorante" translates to in Italian). There's even a guy holding the door open for you. (I think he was employed by Salute. Maybe he was just a nice, door-holding fellow.)
The food, it was delicioso (delicious)!
We started with the Mozzarella In Carrozza (fried breaded mozzarella), which was divine. Best I've ever had. The server (who was attentive and responsive) brought us a basket of assorted breads (with assorted sauces), which we didn't even have to ask for.
The main dishes--damn right, they were good. The Cotolette Di Vitello Alla Parmigiana (veal parm) was the best I have ever tasted. The pasta it came with was aneletti. To my knowledge, it was the first times I have ever had it. It was wondrous. There were even different sauces on the pasta and veal, which was bold. (It was even marginally better than that of Mom Chaffee's, which is saying something.) The Fusilli Alla Carbonara (Mrs. Monsoon's entree) was outstanding, and was presented with an actual fried egg white, which was super fancy. And the Tagliata Di Manzo (sliced grilled beef), which was enjoyed by the mother-in-law of Monsoon, was a dream within a culinary dream.
And the presentation! Oh, the presentation. The most delightful little plates and saucers and vessels. And around each of our dishes, the chef had "painted" a flourish, as though signing his masterwork. It was as though the hand of God Himself had brushed the plates in benedictory blessing.
(I have veered into hyperbole. I will try to rein it in. But the presentation was impressive.)
We were stuffed, but I insisted that we try the desserts, because by then I knew I was going to write this thing, and I believe in thoroughness above all else. I suffer for you people.
I had the ricotta pie, which was good but not great. The thing was drowned in chocolate sauce, which Mrs. Monsoon said was a bit much, but which I relished. Mrs. Monsoon had the tiramisu (from the Italian phrase meaning pick me up) - she said it was good but not the best she's had - and the MOMM (Mom of Mrs. Monsoon) had the pistachio gelato (she said it was great).
It's not a place that you can go every night, unless you're rich. Appetizers are $6-$12, entrees are $15-$25, desserts are $6-$8. So that'll add up. Well worth the money, but still.
So go there and tell me what you think.
Buon appetito (enjoy the eating of the food)!
Winter? Monsoon here. Please stop.
Spoiler alert: the two dots are the same color. It has to do with the color around it or something. Blew yo' minds!!!In honor of the goddamned color-shifting dress that mesmerized my students so maddeningly today, I have included some optical illusions herein. (Seriously, if they brought one-tenth of the ardor and critical thinking to their study of literature that they brought to bear on justifying whether they saw white/gold or blue/black, I would be as happy as a howler monkey with two figs and a wooden nickel.)
Here's what's happening with the weather.
Climatologically, it's getting on toward spring. (Meteorological winter ends on Saturday, and actual winter ends on March 20th.) So the angle of the sun's rays is becoming an issue that we must consider when forecasting.
But here's the thing: winter is not leaving.
For example, tonight it's getting down to 3, with wind chills dipping below zero.
This is a picture, not a .gif. Trippy!Saturday will be sunny but cold, with a high only getting up to 26. (Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid 40s.) Then it gets down to 4 on Saturday night.
Sunday will be overcast with a high of about 30. Oh, and it's going to snow. Not a whole lot, as the heavier amounts will fall well north of us. Expect scattered snow showers from about 1pm to 6pm Sunday, then a few periods of steadier snow between 6pm and 10pm. The event ends as sleet/ice between 2 and 6am. Maybe a bit of rain early Monday morning, too.
Travel impacts: Sunday night and Monday morning's commute look messy.
Chance of delay Monday, 64%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 11%
Monday gets up to 40, but it'll be pretty windy.
Tuesday into Wednesday brings another chance for wintry weather, but right now that's looking like a wet snow-to-rain event. It's a storm that will be long in duration, but the travel impacts and accumulations will be negligible.
On Wednesday it will get up to 46! All the way to 46. And then colder, but not frigid.
High Thursday will be 40. Friday will be around the same.
The following weekend--Saturday 3/7 and Sunday 3/8--will be gorgeous: sunny with highs in the mid 40s. Yeah!!
That's it, then. I don't see any more of the pipe-bursting, battery-killing, sac-shriveling cold that has plagued us, lo these many weeks.
Stay tuned for updates!
The week ahead!
It got above freezing today! Yeah. And then tonight it's going to get really cold again. 30 by midnight, 20s overnight, middle teens by tomorrow morning's commute (wind chill, -2). Only getting up to about 20 Monday afternoon (wind chill, 2).
Chance of delay Monday, 41%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 6%
Overnight from Monday to Tuesday, we'll get down to 1. Not really windy, but still.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 36%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 4%
Tuesday only gets up to 21.
Late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, we could see some light snow showers, but nothing disruptive or notable. I mean, I just noted it, but that's it now. Move on already.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 29%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 18%
Wednesday will get above freezing.
Then Thursday, cold again. *sad face emoji*
Friday too.
A little less frigid for the weekend, but Saturday night into Sunday could bring more snow.
Stay tuned for updates!
Weekend forecast (and beyond)
Saturday will be cold to start - down to 0 overnight. The good news is that it won't be windy, and the temperature will rise steadily from that 0 to 20 by noon, 30 by midnight, and 40 by Sunday afternoon.
Then it gets really, really cold again. High on Monday is only 18, and it's windy. Low overnight from Monday to Tuesday is -1.
You know what, winter? You can go to hell.
Let me talk about the snowstorm on Saturday. Some flurries and snow showers by late Saturday morning, but the snow doesn't really get going until 2pm. Snow won't be constant, but could fall heavily at times. We will likely see some mixing (sleet) as the surface temperatures rise to and above freezing - that's 10pm to midnight Saturday night.
So I see the most hazardous travel times (the times when you don't want to go out unless you have to) as 6pm Saturday to 2am Sunday.
Some mixed snow and rain showers will continue into the overnight hours, ending by midmorning Sunday.
Accumulations will be in the 3-5 inch range, with conditions getting slushy and soppy on Sunday.
Overnight Sunday into Monday, we get down to 18, so all that rain/slush/sop will freeze. And that's bad.
Monday, as I mentioned earlier, will be cold.
You may be thinking, "What did I, your loyal reader, do to deserve this?" And I answer, "No special reason. It's just because you're you!"Tuesday too.
And then snow is still possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, so that could be an issue.
It's cold the rest of the week, and then it looks like Sunday 3/1 into Monday 3/2 could bring another winter weather event.
Hey, mother ... nature, meteorological winter runs from Dec 1st through Feb 28th. So stop this shit already, huh?
Starting on Tuesday 3/3, I see an improvement: highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s. It will feel like a g.d. heatwave.
Preliminary percentages for next week:
Delay Monday (due to freezing), 29%
Cancellation Monday, 11%
Delay Tuesday (due to ass-coldness), 44%
Cancellation Tuesday, 16%
Delay Wednesday (due to more g.d. snow), 65%
Cancellation Wednesday, 38%
Stay tuned for updates!
Only a quick little coating.
I see a couple of quick snow showers around 9 or 10 tonight. Some areas could see heavier and steadier snow briefly, which could cause travel hazards. But just a little coating from this. Maybe 3/8 of an inch in a few places. Nothing more.
In honor of the SNL 40th anniversary, I interrupt this forecast for a clip of David Hasselhoff on SNL's Weekend Update:
During Thursday morning's commute, it will be about 10 degrees with moderate winds, making it feel like -10. In fact, we're not going to escape the negative wind chills all day Thursday.
Chance of delay Thursday, 31%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 4%
Then Friday morning, who-wee. During the Friday morning commute, we're looking at a temperature of -3 with a wind chill of -75.
Sorry, I meant -25. At -75, you would be proper screwed, frostbite-wise, in about five minutes. At least with a wind chill of -25, you've got about 30 minutes before that shit sets in.
Negative wind chills don't leave us until late Friday afternoon--but then only briefly, as the sun will go down. Fortunately, the winds will die down, so by Saturday morning the temperature will be 5 but the wind chill will still be above zero.
Chance of delay Friday, 86%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 59%
The weekend looks all messed up. Snow Saturday afternoon mixes with rain overnight, then continues as rain on Sunday, then ends as snow Sunday night. It's off-and-on action, so I don't expect high totals or major travel issues with this. Windy and colder on Monday.
Chance of delay Monday, 35%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 17%
Looking ahead, there is a snowstorm possible on Wednesday 2/25.
Stay tuned for updates!
Gloating is poor form.
So I won't.
The big winners for this storm were parts of Delaware and South Jersey with 6-7 inches. We had 3.7 here in Reading, and some heavy bands went through Bucks and Montgomery Counties (where 5-6 inches fell). Philly got 4-5.
Here's what to expect over the next week:
First, be on the lookout for "black ice" this evening as temperatures head down into the teens. Little bit of trivia for you: the term "black ice" was coined by the first Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan, Nathan Bedford Forrest, when his horse slipped on an icy patch, pitching Forrest into a briar patch.
None of that is true. (Well, the first sentence about watching for black ice tonight - that's true.) But "black ice" - I think that term came from the fact that it's a thin veneer of ice through which the macadam (usually black) can be seen.
Still, racist.
Wednesday brings us a day of increasing cloudiness with flurries or scattered light snow showers between 2pm and 9pm. A few heavier squalls (not "squaws," a derogatory term for a Native American woman) are possible, especially around 4 or 5. A squall is a period of heavy, blowy snow brought about by the invasion of cold air aloft, which is what's happening here.
Overnight Wednesday into Thursday, temperatures will drop from 20 around 6pm to 10 during the Thursday morning commute. Winds will also increase during that period--though we won't see the high winds we saw on Sunday. Still, wind chills on Thursday morning will dip just below zero.
Thursday will be plenty sunny but COLD as arctic balls of ... crystal ... coldness. I got nothing. High on Thursday will be 12, with wind chills in the negative single digits throughout the day.
Friday will start out so, so cold. Like, absurdly cold. We're-being-punished-for-something cold. During the Friday morning commute, the temperature will be -3 and the wind chill will be in the -25 range. I don't even know what to say anymore. Mercy...? Uncle...?
Friday then turns out to be 12 and sunny and windy and ouch.
Cold on Saturday morning again with a temperature of -1, but far less windy, so there's that.
Saturday turns out less frigid (high of 28) but snow is possible in the afternoon and evening. Not huge accumulations, but nasty in terms of travel hazards.
Snow and rain possible on Sunday, but milder (highs around 40!).
And then colder on Monday and Tuesday here we go again g.d. son of a b.
Oh! Percentages.
Chance of delay Wednesday 2/18, 21%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday 2/18, 10%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday 2/18, 22%
Chance of delay Thursday 2/19, 16%
Chance of cancellation Thursday 2/19, 7%
Chance of delay Friday 2/20, 77%
Chance of cancellation Friday 2/20, 36%
Stay tuned for updates!
Low temperatures = high snow ratios and decreased salt effectiveness
Let me tell you.
The temperatures, in case you haven't noticed, have been very low. It's 13 now, and it's going down to 10 overnight. Tomorrow's high will only be 22. This is significant for two especial reasons:
1. Low temperatures mean high snow ratios. The snow ratio is the amount of snow produced for every inch of liquid. So essentially it's a comparison between the snowfall amount vs. how much it would be if it fell as rain. A typical snow ratio is 10:1. This means that if 10 inches of snow melted, it would produce 1 inch of liquid. This storm will have snow ratios in the 15:1 or 20:1 range. Here we're looking at very dry, fluffy snow. So even with only, say, a half-inch of liquid, the accumulations will be in the range of 8-10 inches. (This is going to be the case with isolated pockets in Delaware and Maryland, but not for us here in Berks.)
2. Low temperatures also diminish the effectiveness of road salt. Road salt is most effective when the surface temperature is 20-30 degrees. When the surface (the road) gets down to 15 degrees and below, the effectiveness of road salt falls off dramatically. Which means that when it's very cold, the roads will become snow-packed and treacherous more quickly, and the snow that accumulates cannot be cleared as easily. (Salters and plowers, correct me here if I am mistaken.)
Just a little background there to give you some context. Information: it's what Monsoon is all about!™
Expect snow to start around here by about 10 or 11pm, with the heaviest action falling after midnight.
Snow begins to taper by 8 or 9am and will end altogether by 10 or 11am Tuesday. And then skies will clear gradually throughout the day.
MY CALL:
Chance of delay Tuesday, 93%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 71%
A publicity still from a 1988 German-made madcap comedy called Starke Zeiten (roughly, Groovy Times) that stars Hasselhoff as an American scientist who tries to dupe a Saudi Arabian dude, and has a monkey wearing human clothes. I have not seen this Zugunglück (train wreck), but I will not rest until I do.Overcast with scattered snow showers on Wednesday morning, possibly resulting in delays (but probably not cancellations).
And then Thursday looks fine. Ass-cold, but fine. High of only 12.
Friday morning will be like a recursion of this morning: the temperature will get down to -4, and the wind chills will approach -20. So a cold-weather delay on Friday looks like again.
The weekend looks nice, though! Shit, wait. Snow possible on Saturday and Sunday, with some sleet mixed in on Saturday night.
Stay tuned for updates!
I forgot to say what accumulations I expected. (Thank you to my favorite lawyer-turned-teacher, Alison Clark, for hipping me to that omission.)
Delaware, Maryland, South Jersey: 6-8 inches
Philadelphia, Chester, Lancaster, Delaware, and Montomgery Counties, as well as NYC: 4-6 inches
Berks: 3-5 inches (Note: this will likely be the cutoff area, so some in Berks may get 2 or 3 inches, but others may get 4 or 5. Unlike in most storms, accumulations will actually be higher in the south.)
Lehigh Valley, Schuylkill County, Poconos, North Jersey: 2-4 inches
Eff this effing wind.
This asshole-y wind has already begun to subside (20mph with gusts of 30mph, down from 30/50 earlier). Temperatures have stayed low, though: it's 12 as I type this (4:10pm) and it's only going to fall this evening and overnight.
By just before daybreak on Monday, the temperature will be -3 and the wind chill will be -25. That's just ridiculously, obnoxiously cold. It's like, Hey, winter, we get it. It's cold. Move on.
Wind chills will be below zero all day Monday, popping above zero in the late afternoon. High of 16 that day. And then snow at night!
Flurries and light snow showers may develop by 8 or 9pm Monday night, but the steadier/heavier snow will fall after about midnight/1am. Snow begins to taper by 8 or 9am Tuesday, but doesn't end altogether until maybe 11am. Accumulation: 2-4 inches.
Snow showers on Wednesday morning as another front moves through, but this will amount to nothing (either in terms of delays/cancellations or in terms of accumulation).
And then Thursday looks like a carbon copy of today: very windy with daytime temperatures getting into the teens, then overnight lows below zero. (And wind chills, again, approaching -20.)
Friday turns out cold (highs near 20, that's it) but with subsiding wind.
And then the weekend looks a bit milder, but potentially snowy. So damn.
That's it, then. After the weekend of February 21st/22nd, winter is over. No more snow or drifting snow or nad-rattling wind chills. No more.
Oh! The percentages. Here:
Chance of delay Monday 2/16..........85%
Chance of cancellation Monday 2/16..........61%
Chance of delay Tuesday 2/17..........88%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday 2/17..........54%
Chance of delay Wednesday 2/18..........16%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday..........6%
Chance of delay Thursday..........59%
Chance of cancellation Thursday..........22%
Chance of delay Friday..........41%
Chance of cancellation Friday..........12%
Stay tuned for updates!
The next few days.
No toddlers were harmed in the making of this .gif.I have some forecasting for you people.
First, on Saturday, we have a clipper to contend with - and it's looking a little juicier than I previously thought. It'll be one of those nuisance storms that gives some people a mere coating and some up to 2.3 inches, depending on where heavier banding sets up. Look for scattered light snow showers late morning and early afternoon; then in the late afternoon and early evening, some areas will see heavier squalls. So if you're out and about tomorrow, keep an eye on the radar. And, you know, the actual sky.
Light snow showers and flurries taper by late Saturday night.
This kid was a little sore for a few days and his elbow still hurts when it rains.Following that action, we're going to see temperatures plunge and the winds really, really, really kick up. Really. By early Sunday morning, winds will be 30-35mph (sustained) with gusts of 50mph! That's a lot of wind. Watch for power outages and downed limbs/wires from the wind. And wind chills will be in the negative teens pretty much all day Sunday.
Everyone's fine. Well, that last person in the furry hood, maybe a smidge of lingering headaches and blurry vision.Overnight into Monday's commute, we'll see winds a little bit weaker, but temperatures will dip to -2. Wind chills will be about -20. You think you know cold? Right now (9pm Friday) it's 20 degrees with light wind. So it'll feel about 35 degrees colder than it feels right now. Put that in your pipe, and the horse you rode in on. Something like that.
And it only gets up to 15 degrees on Monday.
Chance of delay Monday, 80%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 38%
Tuesday (actually late Tuesday into Wednesday) still brings a chance of snow, but the latest model guidance suggests that the snow is heading out to sea.
After that, it gets a little bit less prickishly frigid.
Stay tuned for updates!