Monsoon's Snowcast for Thursday night's event
Sorry I didn’t give a heads-up regarding this morning’s snow showers and flurries. There were some traffic problems (multiple accidents on 222 through southern Berks; a tractor-trailer accident on a ramp of 176) due more to the timing of the snow than to any appreciable accumulation. Might have warranted a delay, but we’re here now, and the snow showers are over for the day.
Many of you have been asking about the Friday event. Over the past weekend, I was thinking the clipper could tap some southern moisture, bringing us as much as 4-6 inches. But it’s looking more like a typical clipper now. Here’s my call:
Light snow begins sometime after 8pm Thursday evening, then continues overnight and through the morning rush, tapering to flurries by 9 or 10am Friday. I expect a coating to an inch for most places, but isolated areas (particularly in areas north and west of Reading) might see as much as two inches.
Probability of cancellation Friday: 30%
Probability of delay Friday: 75%
I will send an update on Thursday if there is any change to my thinking on this event.
Behind this system, we’ll see a return to frigid, far-below-normal conditions, with highs this weekend in the 20s and lows in the teens. The next chances for snow are the 13th-14th (smaller event) and the 18th-19th (more significant event).
Stay tuned for updates!
Happy New Year 2010 - Forecast and Bunk greeting
My good people,
After the forecast, I’ve included New Year’s tidings from The Bunk, who wanted to be sure to thank his fans for their love and adoration over this past year or so. (His muzzle is shorn in a poodlishly arresting way to address some matting in the area. But we already know that, whatever the state of his coiffure— puff-out, buzz-cut, mop-top, cornrows, or high-top fade—he is, now and forever, The Bunk. And thanks to Jon and Lori at Total Dog for taking such good care of his coat, even when we don’t.)
Thu 12/31 - after this morning’s snow showers, which gave us two or three inches (and about which I intended to send a forecast update yesterday, but forgot—honest!), we’ll have snow and flurries developing in the evening and continuing overnight, accumulating an additional inch or two. Please be careful driving, as conditions may deteriorate right around when revelry may be at its peak. Low tonight 29.
Fri 1/1 - overcast with widely scattered morning snow showers. Temperatures becoming colder throughout the day with gusty winds, but the precipitation and winds should not cause travel difficulties. High 38, low 25.
Sat 1/2 - partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of passing flurries or snow showers throughout the day. Very windy for the duration of the day. High 30, low 17 with single-digit wind chills.
Sun 1/3 - partly cloudy, still quite windy, and even colder. High 28, low 14 with wind chills dipping down toward zero.
The week back to school - highs in the low to mid 30s; lows in the upper teens. Other than a chance of a passing snow shower or two on Monday 1/4, not much this week in the way of winter precipitation.
Next chances for winter weather - things are looking interesting for 1/11 and 1/12, and again on the 14th and 15th. Generally the pattern is setting up nicely for some winter weather in mid-January. Stay tuned!
"We'll take a cup of kindness yet, / for auld lang syne." Happy New Year, y'all!
O Bunk-a-doo, O Bunk-a-doo...
...thy patience is unending.
In honor of the 16-month anniversary of The Bunk's birth (and the eve of Christmas Day), we decided to create some memorable photos involving the dog, a Santa outfit, and a reindeer headband. In the course of this photo shoot there was much laughter, commotion, confusion, repeated commands, frantic hand gestures, and biting of the wardrobe items. But finally we came up with a couple of really sweet shots of long-suffering Bunk in his holiday finery. Also included is a shot of The Bunk frolicking in the snow following last weekend's Nor'easter. Please to enjoy.
Before I present the photos, though, I need to send a special yuletide shout-out to those of you who came through in fine style in response to my "wallet calendar" plea a few posts back: Sue, Brent, and especially Phyllis--who not only printed a page of the cards, but also endured the disapproving glares of some Hallmark store workers as she nabbed several of the coveted giveaways. My dad will be thrilled with the bevy of ways in which he'll be able to tell what day it is.
Snow-loving Bunk gambols happily round the Grove
Santa Bunk, up close and delightful
The Bunk, clad in festive garb, sits for a portraitHave a happy, safe, and healthy holiday!
Monsoon's End-of-the-Year Forecast, Featuring WeatherTable 7013
Yo yo yo,
Well, that Nor’easter really packed a wallop, huh? We had about 10 inches here in northern Lancaster County, a bit less in Reading, and in excess of two feet in some places in and around Philadelphia! Nothing like that in our immediate future, but there are a couple of winter weather potentialities in the forecast…
The weather:
Weather narrative: Pretty quiet until Friday, when Christmas is celebrated. A bit of sleet or freezing rain is possible very early in the morning, but temperatures will rise rather quickly into the mid- and upper-30s, so this will be rain. Look for widely scattered light showers and drizzle for the most part throughout the day, continuing overnight and into Saturday, when Boxing Day is celebrated.
The next few days will be cold, but not damned cold, like it’ll be the second half of the week. If you’re planning on being outside for New Year’s Eve, whether in Times Square for the dropping of the ball or in Dillsburg, PA for the Pickle Drop, temperatures will be in the teens as we herald in 2010, so bundle up!
Speaking of heralding in the New Year, we may see some snow around Saturday the 2nd or Sunday the 3rd…
Beyond the forecast: Frigid conditions will predominate until a mid-month “thaw” during which high temperatures will reach into the 40s and perhaps even the 50s. Reality sets back in later in January, along with the potential for more accumulating snowfall.
Monsoon's December Nor'easter Forecast
Well, well. A December Nor’easter. I’ll be damned.
Long term forecast is in the works, but what you really want to hear about is this weekend’s storm, so here goes…
Snow begins early Saturday morning (perhaps before dawn), rather light at first but intensifying after noon. Heaviest snow will be in the afternoon and through the evening. Snow will taper off overnight, though there’s a chance of a few light snow showers lingering into Sunday morning.
Temperatures will hold in the mid 20s for the entirety of this storm, so there will be no mixing and we’ll get good “fluff” (or snow ratios) here. There are also signs the system will slow down once it gets here, potentially increasing snow totals further. Watch for blowing and drifting as winds kick up in the afternoon and evening on Saturday.
Caveat: storms like this are notoriously difficult to predict, since we’re depending on the low to bomb out off the coast and drive the moisture into our area. A shift of 20-30 miles in track could affect the snow totals—and who gets hit—significantly. Here’s a look at the impressive area of moisture as it churns through the south…
But…no guts, no glory, so I won’t hedge. Here are my predicted storm totals:
Philadelphia and the immediate suburbs, northern Maryland and Delaware, and border areas of south Jersey: 10-14 inches; more in isolated areas
Lancaster, York, and Berks Counties, Lehigh Valley and vicinity: 6-10 inches; more in isolated areas
Lebanon, Dauphin and Cumberland Counties and the central portion of PA: 4-6 inches.
Stay tuned for tweakage and updates as they become necessary…
Monsoon's Holiday Wishes & Plea for Assistance
Good people,
I am busily preparing my yuletide weather report, including an appraisal of Saturday’s potential snow (models are all over the place, but my preliminary take is that the system is going to our south and we’ll get only an inch or two). I’m also checking out what lies ahead for the holiday break. Look for that forecast tonight or tomorrow.
But first, I have a silly request. You know those calendars printed on a little card about the size of a credit card, designed to go in your wallet? The ones that are typically given away this time of year by small businesses, banks, insurance companies, greeting card stores, etc.? My dad likes to have a bunch of those handy—one for his wallet, one for his bedstead, one for the kitchen, one for … next to the john, I don’t know. The point is this: his usual source (their credit union) has stopped giving them out this year, and my dad is jonesing for 2010 calendars, hard. Problem is, you can’t just buy these things anywhere. In an ironic twist worthy of O. Henry (well, maybe not quite), this is the one gift that would probably make him most happy, and I haven’t been able to find the damned things anywhere.
So, my fine readers, if you are out and about and see one or a few of these wallet calendar cards (and you don’t want them for yourselves), could you pick them up? It would be most appreciated.
Here at Mifflin, we’re anxiously awaiting our holiday break; our last day of school is tomorrow. It is becoming more and more evident that a nice, lengthy break is precisely what we need. I’m not sure if it was the student who showed me a video her group had made for a nineteenth amendment project in social studies—in which she and the members of her group were chanting “No more women’s suffrage!” and “Women’s suffrage has got to go!” due to a fundamental misunderstanding of the meaning of the word “suffrage.” Maybe it was the young man in my class who laid on the counter by the window like a cat in a sunbeam, then nuzzled his head into the back of a startled peer while making meowing noises, almost precipitating an attack by this bewildered boy. Then again, maybe it’s the “ball taps” and the cell phones and the rampant tomfoolery in the hallway.
Whatever the reason, it’s definitely time for a break.
I hope yours is happy and healthy, and I sincerely hope you’re able to spend time with people you like to be around. Have a great holiday season!
Monsoon's Winter Precipitation Forecast
Today is friggin’ cold. Any damned fool who has stepped outside can tell that. In fact, it’s going to struggle to get to 30 this afternoon, and given the blustery conditions, wind chills will be in the teens for much of the day. Low tonight: 18.
Saturday looks a bit warmer and still breezy, getting up to a balmy 35, then down to 22 overnight. Mostly sunny skies throughout the day will give way to increasing clouds late.
On Sunday we’ll see light sleet and snow developing by 10am or so, changing first to freezing rain (meaning that it may freeze to surfaces), then changing by early afternoon to plain old rain. The rain will continue through the nighttime, tapering overnight. Expect highs in the low 40s and a low Sunday night in the mid 30s.
Partly sunny and a bit milder on Monday with a high in the mid 40s.
Chance of cancellation Monday: 5%
Chance of delay Monday: 10%
The next chance of winter precipitation is on Tuesday into Wednesday, when a strong cold front and an area of moisture will coincide. But as of now, this doesn’t look like anything to get a jazzed up about.
After that, the next good chance of snow is around the 22nd to the 23rd.
Stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon's Precipitation Update: Tuesday night into Wednesday
A big system with a lot of moisture is headed our way for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moderating temperatures, however, will mean that a good bit of this will fall as rain, rather than frozen precipitation.
Things get underway after 9pm Tuesday night with some light snow and flurries, as temperatures then will be hovering around freezing. We’ll see temperatures in the 31-34 range from Tuesday night until about 6 or 7 Wednesday morning, meaning there’s a decent chance we’ll see some snow and sleet at the front end of this mess. This could cause a bit of slush and even ice on roads, particularly during early-morning commutes. But by and large, this will be a liquid (not solid, or even semi-solid) affair; I don’t foresee any major delays or problems from this one.
As the morning wears on, temperatures will rise into the low 40s and the rain will get steadier and heavier, washing away any frozen stuff that has fallen overnight (and even what fell over the past weekend). Rain tapers toward late Wednesday afternoon as a very strong cold front moves through.
Temperatures on Wednesday night will reach down into the upper 20s. Highs for the rest of the week will only be in the mid 30s, and windy conditions will produce daytime wind chills in the 20s. (Thursday and Friday nights could even see single-digit wind chills, so watch out.)
More of the same (with a bit less wind) for the coming weekend.
Chance of a two-hour delay on Wednesday 12/9: 30%
Chance of cancellation on Wednesday: 15%
Stay tuned: I will update the situation as needed if my thinking changes on this system.