Rain, then colder, then cold, then snow?
So here's just a quick update on the weather we can expect over the next week or so. I hope everyone is having a relaxing and safe holiday season!
Rainy Sunday, particularly in the late morning and early afternoon. Rain is heaviest during these times. Temperatures will hold steady in the upper 30s/lower 40s, so no threat of mixing or wintry precipitation, but still watch for wet roadways and some flooding. We could get an inch of rain.
Monday looks breezy and colder. High 37, low 18, but temperatures will feel like the 20s during the day due to the wind.
Tuesday and Wednesday look cold with more clouds than sun. High Tuesday is 30; high Wednesday is 26. Overnight lows in the middle teens both nights. The Mummers will freeze; there may be a flurry around, too. Not a cataclysmic snowstorm, but still, I'll take it.
Speaking of cataclysmic snowstorms: models are indicating a possible Nor'easter for Thursday (starting in the morning, lasting all day). It's very early now, and a lot could change. So it would be wanton speculation to give you snow totals yet. But hey, that's what I do: I wantonly speculate. Here are percentages for you, and these DO add up to 100:
25% chance of a complete miss
30% chance of an accumulation in the range of 3-6 inches
30% chance of an accumulation in the range of 6-10 inches
15% chance of an accumulation in the range of 10-15 inches
It will be cold (temperatures in the lower 20s during the storm), so this would potentially be all snow with higher snow ratios (the ratio of snowfall to liquid content). So, you know, stay tuned.
Friday looks cold with snow or flurries possible.
The weekend looks clear with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens.
The next potential winter storms I'm looking at are: 1/7, 1/13, 1/21, and 1/25. And 1/31.
And 2/5.
Then it quiets down.
Updates to follow!
Wet, windy, and warm ... then cold and dry. This is the Monsoon Martin year-end forecast extravaganza. Jubilee. Yuletide.
Compañeros y compañeras,
¡Feliz Navidad!
The rest of this forecast will be in English.
First, let me offer a personal shout-out to longtime friend and Monsoon supporter Bill "The Voice" Snelling, who enabled my Hoffophilia by giving me the most magnificent Christmas ornament since the dawn of time.
And now, the weather.
Sure was warm out there today (Saturday), wasn't it? Snow and snow and more snow in the last few weeks of fall, and then on the first day of winter, we get spring. Classic mix-up, Mother Nature.
Sunday will be windy and cloudy and warm, then wet too. Expect winds 15-20mph and temperatures climbing all the way to 68, shattering the record of 61 set in 1998. Scattered showers and drizzle in the afternoon, then steadier rain likely in the evening and overnight into Monday.
Hasselhoff in a Hawaiian shirt in honor of the balmy temperatures on Sunday. The top several buttons appear to be missing, which is a recurring sartorial issue for Sir Chest Hair of Hoffington.Cloudy and breezy with lingering showers on Monday, with temperatures starting in the 50s, falling through to the 40s in the evening, the 30s at night--and finally down into the 20s by Tuesday morning. So that's a 40-degree drop in only 24 hours or so.
Breezy and cold with times of sun and clouds on Tuesday, with a high of only 35. Snow showers (and even a widely scattered stronger squall) could move through in the afternoon. Overnight low gets all the way down to 16. There's that winter!
Wednesday will be sunny and cold. High 30, low 18. It will not be a white Christmas in this area, unless you are white people--in which case a white Christmas is unavoidable.
Thursday and Friday look a bit milder (highs around 38) with a few clouds around. Overnight lows in the mid 20s both nights.
Saturday and Sunday will be more of the same: highs in the mid to upper 30s, partly cloudy conditions, and overnight lows in the low to mid 20s.
The banner reads "New Delhi Call Center" in case you can't see it. And yes, those are four white guys dressed up like Indian guys, complete with dots on their heads. And this is from the January 1, 2013 parade. And this is real, I promise you, as evidenced by the clip below.Next week starts off in a similar fashion, then a small disturbance will pass through on New Year's Eve, bringing some light snow showers or flurries. Unfortunately, it does not seem like we'll have any rain or snow for the Mummers Parade, but it will be cold (temperatures in the teens and 20s) and breezy, so at least there's that. Although let's face it: they will be so loaded up on cheap beer that they won't feel a damned thing--and it's well-known that sequins absorb heat, so the frigidity will be all but lost on them.
The end of next week looks even colder--highs in the mid to upper 20s, lows in the lower teens--but I don't see any snow to worry about through the January 4th and 5th weekend.
And then...
I'm looking at potential winter weather events around January 7th, January 14th, and January 22nd. And a really active pattern is setting up for the first week of February.
So, you know...
stay tuned.
Saturday question mark.
At first I thought Saturday's potential snowfall was nothing--that the moisture would take an eastward track and all we'd get is some light rain mixed with snow. I was also wary of the impending storm, knowing that local media outlets tend to hype any hint of frozen precipitation as a looming apocalypse.
The storm, late Saturday afternoon.But the models are favoring a colder solution and a track farther inland, the meteorology has caught up to the hyperbole, and so I've changed my thinking.
Here's what I think about Saturday, as of Thursday night:
First of all, I see a wedge of cold air settling into our area. Tonight's low will get down to 11 and Friday's high will only reach 30. Temperatures on Saturday will hold fairly steady in the 28-30 range, so most of what falls will be frozen.
Light snow begins Saturday by 8 or 9am, then will fall more steadily starting around 11am. Snow will continue for the rest of the day. At some point, it will mix with (and change over to) sleet and freezing rain before ending overnight. The timing of that mixing is crucial, both to snow totals and road conditions. I am thinking this will happen later (especially in the Berks area), driving snow totals up. I don't think the changeover will happen until 9 or 10pm.
The storm as it begins to move out, pulling in some warmer air aloft and leading to some mixing.[A quick aside: The Weather Channel, the 24-hour weather doom merchant, has continued its practice of naming winter storms, begun last year. We just got through with Cleon and Dion; this one has been christened "Electra." Throughout the winter, we'll also be treated to Falco, Leon, and Quintus. It's like a 12-year-old boy just learned all about Greek and Roman mythology and then was assigned the task of naming these storms. Juvenile.]
As far as driving, Saturday morning should be fine, but the afternoon and evening will be rather dicey. Best to reconsider any plans that involve extensive travel.
So how much snow will we get? That depends on track and changeover timetable, but right now I'd say 4-6 inches in the Berks area, Allentown, Bucks County and central-northern New Jersey; 2-4 in Philly and its immediate suburbs, as well as south Jersey and New York City; and 6-8 inches or more in the Poconos, interior New York state, and much of New England.
The 1973 Buick Electra.(Note: isolated areas in Chester County, northern Lancaster County, and the Lehigh Valley look like they'll be in the "sweet spot" of this storm, and may see more than six inches.)
Winds will be calm to light throughout this storm, so we're not going to see any issues with blowing snow. And it will be a fairly wet-heavy snow.
Sunday turns out partly sunny and breezy, so that's nice. Then it gets cold again. Down into the teens Sunday night, then only up to 31 on Monday. Tuesday 12/17 brings another potential (but minor) chance of snow, and the following Saturday (12/21) looks like an icy mess.
David Hasselhoff, dog lover.
December 23rd and 24th have the potential for snow, and then the last week of December will be a frigid hellscape of yuletide joy: highs of 20, lows of 12, icy snow mounds every damn place.
Still looking promising for snow/ice on New Year's Day to screw up the Mummers Parade! Ha. Take that, you sequined shitheads.
As always, stay tuned for updates!
The rest of the week ... and Saturday snow?
My good people,
Mostly sunny the next few days, but very cold.
The temperature during tomorrow morning's commute will be only in the upper teens - so there will be icy patches. As a result, I am calling:
Chance of delay Wednesday, 65%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 7.23%
A model run for Saturday's storm. Notice that it slides east of us. I think most of what does fall will be rain...Highs on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will only be in the upper 20s. Especially windy on Thursday: wind chills will be near zero.
On Saturday, some models are pointing toward a big storm - 6 to 8 inches of snow and sleet. I think it's going to slide east, though, so we'll just see some light snow and rain showers. That's what I think as of now - stay tuned, of course, for updates.
Sunny and breezy on Sunday with highs in the upper 30s (but wind chills in the 20s). Sunny and windy to start next week: highs in the lower 30s, but windy, so wind chills in the mid teens.
Looking ahead, the December 22nd through 24th period is looking potentially snowy. And still, New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.
More snow tomorrow
Right down to the nitty gritty.
Snow arrives in the Reading area around 7 or 8am Tuesday. While we were worried about mixed precipitation with the last system, this one will be all snow. Temperatures will hold steady in the 28-30 range throughout the day.
Snow tapers, then ends by about 4 or 5pm Tuesday. Accumulations will be 2-4 inches (Reading, Allentown, Lancaster) and 3-5 inches (Philly and immediate suburbs, northern Delaware, and central and northern New Jersey. Isolated areas could receive six inches or more if a heavy band moves through.
Chance of delay Tuesday: 6%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday: 30%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday: 85%
It will get very cold overnight Tuesday into Wednesday (down to the upper teens), so ice will be an issue for the Wednesday morning commute.
Chance of delay Wednesday: 55%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 18%
The rest of the week looks sunny, brisk, and cold, but no more precipitation. Highs will be in the upper 20s; lows in the teens.
Seeing a lot of potential winter weather events reaching into the future, as well.
Stay tuned for udpates!!
So what's up for this weekend?
I'll tell you what.
Friday, December 6th: Starting out rainy and drizzly and foggy. Temperatures actually drop throughout the day - from 50s in the morning, through the 40s in the afternoon, and finally through the 30s in the evening. Expect rain picking up again after noon, then continuing on and off through the evening and into the night. Maybe mixing with a little sleet overnight, but it'll be tapering by then, so no accumulation. Do be careful if you're out driving late Friday night or early Saturday morning, though.
Saturday, December 7th: breezy and colder with partly sunny conditions. High of only about 40, but it'll feel like the 20s. Overnight lows in the low 20s.
Hasselhoff + ring tailed lemurs = super great party time.Sunday, December 8th: Snow develops about 1 or 2 in the afternoon as temperatures are at (or just a hair above) freezing. Some places could see an inch or two of accumulation. Then the temperature will begin to rise by the evening and the precipitation will mix, then become all rain. It's not terribly heavy precipitation, so whatever falls won't be a big whoop.
Monday, December 9th: Temperatures will be in the mid 30s by Monday morning's commute, so we probably won't see a lot of school disruptions. Rain tapers throughout the morning. The day will be overcast but a bit milder, with highs in the mid 40s.
Chance of delay Monday, 35%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 7.5%
Tuesday, December 10th: Chance for rain and snow in the overnight hours, into Tuesday morning. Turning out breezy, cloudy, and colder (again). High just 34. Low Tuesday night, 18.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 28%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 14.1%
Wednesday, December 11th: Plenty of sunshine but cold. Damn cold. High of 30 and breezy. Low of 19.
Thursday, December 12th: Sunny and continued cold. High 32, low 16.
Friday, December 13th: Partly cloudy and breezy with highs in the mid to upper 30s. (Balmy!) Low of 20.
Next weekend: Cloudy and rainy, particularly on Sunday. Highs in the mid 40s.
The following week: Rainy to start, then clearing and seasonable - highs in the low 40s, lows in the upper 20s.
Looking ahead: Snow or ice on Christmas!! And a major storm in the wings for New Year's Day (I am really rooting for that one so the odious Mummer buffoonery is shat upon).
Stay tuned for updates!
This is a follow-up to my original post. The purpose of this follow-up is to offer more specific information about the timing and nature of the upcoming storm.
A little bit of snow starts around 2 or 3 Sunday afternoon, moving southwest to northeast. There's not a ton of moisture in this system, so any precipitation will be light to moderate. Mixes with sleet by around 7 or 8pm, then changes over to all sleet. By 3am-ish, I expect that temperatures will rise above freezing and any lingering precipitation will fall as rain. Rain tapers by late morning.
Chance of delay Monday: 25%
Chance of cancellation Monday: 8%
Tuesday the 10th is actually looking more interesting in terms of snow and delays as another system moves in late Monday night. There's the potential for a 2-4 inch accumulation from this system, as well as the cancellation of school - due more to timing than severity.
Chance of delay Tuesday: 12%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday: 31%
And then December 15th-16th is looking good for a potential snow/freezing rain event.
Stay tuned for updates!
P.S. If you have a specific question about location or timing, just email me.
Turkeygeddon® 2013
The moniker may not be perfect, but I'm determined to make it stick.
So here's my final (pre-storm) call:
Rain begins early Tuesday afternoon. There's been some talk of mixing at the beginning of the event, but I think a variety of factors will conspire to give us all rain on the front end. Temperatures will hold steady in the mid thirties, so a slick spot or two cannot be ruled out.
Rain will become steady, then heavy, then soaking. Heaviest rain falls Tuesday 7pm through Wednesday 10am.
Temperatures will actually rise into the lower 40s overnight, so I think the concerns about "back-end" snow (precipitation that falls as snow when the system moves out and the temperature drops) are overblown. Rain will taper throughout the afternoon and early evening. We could see a coating of snow, but this system won't have enough juice left to give us measurable accumulation.
Wind will pick up throughout the day Tuesday and will get strongest behind the storm: 20-30mph with gusts over 40.
My most significant concerns with this storm are flooding--most areas will get 2 to 3 inches of rainfall--and wind damage.
Travel hazards: ponding water on the roadways during the height of the storm, low visibility, some fog, and a rapid freeze-up Wednesday night, when temperatures will plunge through the 20s.
Thanksgiving Day will be mostly sunny, windy, and cold with a high of 34. The low overnight (Thursday into Friday) will be 18. So all you bargain hunters, bundle up!!!
Stay tuned for updates when and if there are changes as the storm moves through...
Thanksgiving travel nightmare Nor'easter panic oh my god.
So ... it's kind of brisk out there. I'll talk to you about this arctic blast in a moment, though; right now, you're interested in whether or not we'll have the titular storm.
Here's what I think, 72 hours out:
Rain and drizzle arrive Tuesday afternoon, then may mix with some wet snow overnight as temperatures dip down toward freezing. Rain tapers considerably throughout Wednesday morning and afternoon.
Models are in considerable disagreement on a solution for this potential Nor'easter, but I think the eastern solutions--the ones in which the bulk of the moisture drifts out to sea--are more feasible.
I don't see a lot of travel issues for the day before Thanksgiving, other than the fact that people drive like assholes even more vigorously in any kind of precipitation. Rain is out of here by Wednesday around 6, then it gets a little windy (and cold) behind the system.
So here's the forecast:
Sunday 11/24 will be partly cloudy and really, super windy with an unseasonably frigid high of just 31. (Sustained winds will reach 20mph--with 30mph gusts--so wind chills will be in the teens). So it's not the day to, say, spraypaint little hoofprints on the parking lot outside your high school. It's the day to hunker in the snug by the fire with the wife and the dog and the papers. Low Sunday night into Monday could set a record (the current record is 17 set in 1938). So that's g.d. cold.
It's Garthe Knight, Michael's evil twin.Monday 11/25 will be cold, too: high of just 36 with partly sunny skies. Wind will be less assy, though.
Tuesday 11/26 is when the aforementioned Turkeygeddon® may or may not happen, but no it won't. Starting out partly cloudy with temperatures reaching in to the low 40s, then clouding up and raining. Temperatures will dip to 32 overnight, so there will be some mixing, but I do not expect measurable accumulation or travel foulness.
Wednesday 11/27 will see rain mixed with a little wet snow, tapering throughout the morning and afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 30s and it will be breezy behind the system. Overnight lows will dip in to the low 20s.
Thursday 11/28 is a holiday known popularly as Thanksgiving, but which derives from the Algonquin Toppoposh-ósquonk, which roughly translates to "Is this bountiful feast just a thinly-veiled attempt to lull us in to a false sense of security, white man?" Expect the following weather on this day: sunny, windy and cold, with highs only in the mid 30s and brisk northwest winds. Lows dip down in to the teens.
Friday 11/29 is popularly known as Black Friday since it is the day on which retailers expect to get into the "black," or profit, but which actually derives from the Iroquoian Tehalihwákhwa' Kahòntsi, which transliterates to "please allow me to follow my giving-of-thanks festival and bask in the spirit of Christmas by trampling total strangers to death in a frenzied, pre-dawn attempt to get a $49 flat screen television." Sunny and cold. High of 39, low of 20.
Saturday 11/30 has become known in recent years as Small Business Saturday so that people who flocked to big box retailers on Black Friday can assuage their consciences by purchasing overpriced, hand-crafted gewgaws down at the local boutique. Partly cloudy and breezy; high 42, low 26.
Sunday 12/1 is popularly known as Holy shit I overspent again Sunday. It is a sad, sad day. Sunny; high 45, low 28.
Monday 12/2 is a dual holiday: it is both Cyber Monday and the first day of Deer Season in Pennsylvania, for which we have off school, and no, I am not kidding. We really have off for the first day of Deer Season. James Carville famously said, "Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between." We can quibble about whether this statement is unfairly stereotypical or paints Pennsylvanians with too wide a brush. But we have off school for the first day of deer hunting season.
Sunny and colder to start, then clouding up at night. May be some freezing rain and snow overnight, actually. Could impact school schedules for Tuesday 12/3. So stay tuned for updates.
The rest of the first week of December will be cold (highs in the 30s, lows in the teens) and overcast generally. I'm looking at a system that could bring us snow in the Thursday 12/5 - Friday 12/6 range.
Becoming more seasonable thereafter: highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s. Stay tuned for updates...
Update as of Sunday evening: it appears now that the track of the Nor'easter will place the mid-Atlantic region in its path.
However, I expect this system to give us nothing but rain.
We'll get a lot of rain - 2 to 3 inches in some places - but other than a wee bit of mixed wet snow overnight, that's it.
So the most significant threats are from the wind (10-15mph Tuesday night, 15-20mph on Wednesday) and from flooding in some places. The heavy rain is likely to cause some travel woes (the aforementioned piss-poor driving, delayed flights, isolated flash and coastal flooding).
As ever, stay tuned for updates...