The Official Monsoon Martin Winter 2008-09 Outlook
‘Sup,
Before I reveal my first annual Official Monsoon Martin Winter Outlook, I want to welcome a new member to the Martin family. His name is Bunk, he’s a three-month-old standard poodle, and he’s a bearish bundle of furry sweetness; the sound of his inquisitive paddling around the kitchen sounds like a five-year-old in footy pajamas skimming happily across the floor, and makes us very happy. Of course he cannot replace Sasha and Ruthie, whom we lost earlier this month and miss desperately. Thanks again to those of you who offered your kind condolences on their passing.
But Bunk can help fill the void left in our lives by the absence of our late companions, and recover some of the peculiar joy we derive from welcoming an animal into our home. I look forward to keeping you posted on his growth (he’s 25 pounds or so now; he’ll grow to at least 60 pounds) and shenanigans.
Now, for the Official Monsoon Martin Winter 2008-09 Outlook, which is based on my own study of forecast models and meteorological trends, with a generous helping of “gut feeling” thrown in. I’ve divided the winter weather season into seven periods beginning with the first half of December and ending halfway through March (roughly, meteorological winter). Each entry begins with normal temperature ranges, followed by temperature and snowfall predictions, along with accumulation totals and winter weather cancellations and delays for area schools.
Please note that my outlook applies to the region encompassing a roughly 20-mile radius round Adamstown, bounded by northern Berks County to the north; Pottstown and western Montgomery County to the east; Mt. Gretna and eastern Lebanon County to the west; and Paradise and central-southern Lancaster County to the south.
Speaking of the weather, I wanted to share my favorite recent weather-related quote. It was uttered by Danny McBride, who plays Cody, a mulleted pyrotechnics expert in the film Tropic Thunder, when he blows up a row of palm trees: “Mother Nature just pissed her pantsuit!” [A note about Tropic Thunder: I love the film, especially Robert Downey Jr.’s performance in it—he does his best work since his role as Ian in 1985’s Weird Science and as Derek in 1986’s Back to School—but I realize it’s not for everyone. I found its gleeful disregard of propriety intoxicating and Downey’s “400 years” speech made me laugh as hard as anything I’ve ever seen in the movies.] McBride’s phrasing is something I plan to use liberally this winter in endeavoring to explain meteorological anomalies that may arise...
Where was I? Oh, yes. Kind of a lot going on lately. I’ve had a bit of trouble focusing. Back to the Official Monsoon Martin Winter 2008-09 Outlook. There are few really useful climatological clues this season—such as the presence of El Nino or La Niña, neither of which is present in the Pacific this year—so it’s especially difficult to make predictions with any accuracy (particularly regarding precipitation) until just days before the event. But I’m not in the business of equivocation or excuse-making here; I’m about rockin’ this outlook, and rockin’ it hard. Here goes...
First half of December: Average highs are typically in the low to mid 40s, lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
December 1st to 15th will be colder than normal over all, with some nasty wind chills dipping into the teens. I’m fairly confident we’ll see a snow event in the 4-6” range somewhere around the 9th or 10th of the month; temperatures will become a bit milder then toward mid-month.
Winter weather cancellations and delays: Most of us have 10 school days in this period. I’m predicting 1 cancellation and 1 delay.
Second half of December: Average highs are typically in the upper 30s to low 40s, lows in the low to mid 20s.
December 16th to 31st will be average to a bit warmer than normal, and I do not believe we’ll see a “white Christmas” this year.
Winter weather cancellations and delays: Most of us have only 4 to 6 school days in this period. I’m predicting no winter weather-related cancellations or delays.
First half of January: Average highs are typically in the mid to upper 30s, lows in the low 20s.
After a relatively mild start, the bitter cold sets in by around the second week of January. I’m looking for a small to moderate event in the range of 4-6” early on.
Winter weather cancellations and delays: Most of us have 10 school days in this period. I’m predicting 1 cancellation and 2 delays, mainly due to icing problems.
Second half of January: Average highs are typically in the mid to upper 30s, lows in the low 20s.
Colder to begin the second half of the month, with a significant storm in the range of 10-12”, then a “thaw” with milder temperatures to end the month. Winter’s not over yet, though...
Winter weather cancellations and delays: Most of us have 9 school days in this period. I’m predicting 1 cancellation and no delays.
First half of February: Average highs are typically in the upper 30s to low 40s, lows in the low to mid 20s.
We’ll see very cold conditions and a one-two punch of winter weather events: a fairly moderate storm (6-8”) followed by a big snow (in the range of 12-15”) by mid-month, right around Valentine’s Day.
Winter weather cancellations and delays: Most of us have 9 school days in this period. I’m predicting 1 cancellation and 2 delays.
Second half of February: Average highs are typically in the low to mid 40s, lows in the low to mid 20s.
Around average, with a few days of milder “thaw” temperatures: winter’s chill begins to recede and the snow begins to melt, but a couple of freezing rain/sleet/snow events will make travel treacherous and disrupt schedules in the region.
Winter weather cancellations and delays: Most of us have 9 school days in this period. I’m predicting no cancellations and 2 delays.
First half of March (through the Ides): Average highs are typically in the mid to upper 40s, lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
I’m looking for near-average temperatures with a few colder days mixed in. If these colder days coincide with a Nor’easter, we could see a major storm develop in the first or second week of the month; I don’t think the pattern is set up for this right now, though.
Winter weather cancellations and delays: Most of us have 10 school days in this period. I’m predicting no winter weather-related cancellations or delays.
Totals and summary: I’m predicting a very active (and frequently, quite cold) winter, especially when compared with the previous 3 or 4 winters, which featured a dearth of snowfall and milder temperatures than normal over all. Snowfall totals will be in the range of 36-42” generally, with fluctuations within the forecast region I outlined above.
Totting up the winter weather-related cancellations and delays: I think we’ll have 4 cancellations and 7 delays. Hell, we may even have an early dismissal or two, particularly in the active period from mid-January through mid-February.
Mother Nature will most definitely be shitting her wetsuit. Or was it sweating through her pantyhose? Puking in her soup? Ahh yes: pissing in her pantsuit. I’ll get it straight...