Forecast: Thursday 1/21 - Friday 1/22 Event
People,
Here is my take on the Thursday night-Friday morning event…
The system is not all that well-organized and is not terribly moisture-laden. And there are some forecast models that suggest the system will actually pass to our south, giving us nary a damned thing. But hedge will I not. Here is what I think is going to happen:
Light snow showers develop sometime between 10pm and midnight. Snow showers become somewhat steadier overnight, accumulating perhaps as much as an inch.
Freezing rain and/or sleet mix in toward the morning commute—in the range of 3am to 9am—producing a very slippery half-inch coating of ice on top of the already-fallen snow.
[Quick weather review: freezing rain starts as snow in the upper atmosphere, then melts to liquid form in warmer air closer to the ground. It hits the ground as rain, but when the surface temperature is below 32 degrees, it freezes to the surface, creating a dangerous sheet of ice. On the other hand, sleet also starts as snow in the upper atmosphere, then melts to liquid form, but then refreezes before hitting the ground as ice pellets. Good rule of thumb: if you see it bouncing off the ground, it’s sleet; if it looks like rain but is creating a glazy coating on the ground, it’s freezing rain. They both suck for drivers, but freezing rain tends to be the more dangerous of the two.]
Temperatures will not get above freezing until toward noon, with a high getting to just the mid 30s in the afternoon. Expect tapering precipitation—rain, mixed with a few flurries and snow showers—ending through the afternoon.
We’re in the clear as temperatures get milder on Saturday. Then on Sunday, temperatures will rise into the upper 40s and some heavy rain moves through Sunday evening into Monday. Since the mercury will stay well above freezing, even overnight, this will not cause any driving headaches (other than from those people who seem to have an instantaneous loss of their faculties when driving in the rain), and it will cause no delays or cancellations.
…which brings me to the predictions for Friday.
Chance of school cancellation Friday: 40%
Chance of school delay Friday: 75%
Predictions are subject to change. If my forecast evolves into something significantly different from what appears above (either in time of arrival, or in precipitation types, or in delay chances), I will send out an update.
Weather Update for Saturday, 16 January 2010
Given Friday’s chaotic flavor at Mifflin—45-minute power outage to begin the day, necessitating an altered schedule; unplanned fire alarm halfway through the day, precipitating a trek across the street and another adjusted schedule—folks have been asking me when we can look forward to a snow day in the near future. I regret to inform you that there will be none next week, but I am happy to report that there is hope beyond that.
As far as Sunday’s event, I think we’re looking at all rain there. The rain could be heavy at times, particularly by the late afternoon and through the evening. Rain tapers overnight and could mix with a bit of sleet, but I feel confident this will be insignificant.
Temperatures continue to moderate from the below-normal deep freeze we had prior to this week. Expect highs low 50s today (Saturday) with the low only getting into the low 30s as clouds increase ahead of the storm system.
Sunday 1/17 will be rainy, as previously mentioned, breezy and chilly, with temperatures nearly steady in the mid 30s for the duration of the day.
Monday’s high will be in the mid-40s with mostly clear skies. A system comes through that could give us a coating overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, but it’s more likely that it’ll miss us altogether.
Wednesday 1/20 and Thursday 1/21 will be partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 30s and lows into the low 20s.
Friday 1/22 could bring a little rain (and perhaps mixed precipitation late) ahead of a weak cold front, but again, this is not exactly a blockbuster.
I’m looking at a few potential schedule-changers for those of us charged with molding young minds. Depending on temps and timing, Monday morning the 25th could be just sleety and slippery enough to cause a delay, but not much more. An ice storm brewing around Friday the 29th could give us—dare we dream?—a glorious midwinter three-day weekend.
Beyond that, and into February, the pattern is setting up for another deep freeze and conditions are right for accumulating snowfall, which bodes well for wintry precipitation.
Stay tuned!
Monsoon's Forecast for 01.11.10, including WeatherTable
After a few quick flurries and snow showers in places overnight, we’re not likely to see snowfall again until the end of the month. There’s even a warm-up in our near future (hey—the 40s is a warm-up when you’ve been shivering below zero for what seems like weeks). Following a dip into the teens again tonight (Monday into Tuesday), I don’t think we’ll see temperatures below 20 again until month’s end.
Please to enjoy.
The weather:
Weather narrative: Gradually milder throughout the week, with highs by Friday approaching 50. There’s a weather system that may impact the area on Sunday into Monday, but it’s looking very good that it will pass well to our south and give us just some flurries and snow showers. (I’ll send an update if my thinking changes on this system.)
Next week will feature temperatures about normal (highs in the 30s, lows in the 20s). The following weekend brings much milder temperatures and some rainy conditions.
Beyond the forecast: The last week of January will see a return to colder temperatures and the potential for more winter weather.
Stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon's Snowcast for Thursday night's event
Sorry I didn’t give a heads-up regarding this morning’s snow showers and flurries. There were some traffic problems (multiple accidents on 222 through southern Berks; a tractor-trailer accident on a ramp of 176) due more to the timing of the snow than to any appreciable accumulation. Might have warranted a delay, but we’re here now, and the snow showers are over for the day.
Many of you have been asking about the Friday event. Over the past weekend, I was thinking the clipper could tap some southern moisture, bringing us as much as 4-6 inches. But it’s looking more like a typical clipper now. Here’s my call:
Light snow begins sometime after 8pm Thursday evening, then continues overnight and through the morning rush, tapering to flurries by 9 or 10am Friday. I expect a coating to an inch for most places, but isolated areas (particularly in areas north and west of Reading) might see as much as two inches.
Probability of cancellation Friday: 30%
Probability of delay Friday: 75%
I will send an update on Thursday if there is any change to my thinking on this event.
Behind this system, we’ll see a return to frigid, far-below-normal conditions, with highs this weekend in the 20s and lows in the teens. The next chances for snow are the 13th-14th (smaller event) and the 18th-19th (more significant event).
Stay tuned for updates!
Happy New Year 2010 - Forecast and Bunk greeting
My good people,
After the forecast, I’ve included New Year’s tidings from The Bunk, who wanted to be sure to thank his fans for their love and adoration over this past year or so. (His muzzle is shorn in a poodlishly arresting way to address some matting in the area. But we already know that, whatever the state of his coiffure— puff-out, buzz-cut, mop-top, cornrows, or high-top fade—he is, now and forever, The Bunk. And thanks to Jon and Lori at Total Dog for taking such good care of his coat, even when we don’t.)
Thu 12/31 - after this morning’s snow showers, which gave us two or three inches (and about which I intended to send a forecast update yesterday, but forgot—honest!), we’ll have snow and flurries developing in the evening and continuing overnight, accumulating an additional inch or two. Please be careful driving, as conditions may deteriorate right around when revelry may be at its peak. Low tonight 29.
Fri 1/1 - overcast with widely scattered morning snow showers. Temperatures becoming colder throughout the day with gusty winds, but the precipitation and winds should not cause travel difficulties. High 38, low 25.
Sat 1/2 - partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of passing flurries or snow showers throughout the day. Very windy for the duration of the day. High 30, low 17 with single-digit wind chills.
Sun 1/3 - partly cloudy, still quite windy, and even colder. High 28, low 14 with wind chills dipping down toward zero.
The week back to school - highs in the low to mid 30s; lows in the upper teens. Other than a chance of a passing snow shower or two on Monday 1/4, not much this week in the way of winter precipitation.
Next chances for winter weather - things are looking interesting for 1/11 and 1/12, and again on the 14th and 15th. Generally the pattern is setting up nicely for some winter weather in mid-January. Stay tuned!
"We'll take a cup of kindness yet, / for auld lang syne." Happy New Year, y'all!
O Bunk-a-doo, O Bunk-a-doo...
...thy patience is unending.
In honor of the 16-month anniversary of The Bunk's birth (and the eve of Christmas Day), we decided to create some memorable photos involving the dog, a Santa outfit, and a reindeer headband. In the course of this photo shoot there was much laughter, commotion, confusion, repeated commands, frantic hand gestures, and biting of the wardrobe items. But finally we came up with a couple of really sweet shots of long-suffering Bunk in his holiday finery. Also included is a shot of The Bunk frolicking in the snow following last weekend's Nor'easter. Please to enjoy.
Before I present the photos, though, I need to send a special yuletide shout-out to those of you who came through in fine style in response to my "wallet calendar" plea a few posts back: Sue, Brent, and especially Phyllis--who not only printed a page of the cards, but also endured the disapproving glares of some Hallmark store workers as she nabbed several of the coveted giveaways. My dad will be thrilled with the bevy of ways in which he'll be able to tell what day it is.
Snow-loving Bunk gambols happily round the Grove 
Santa Bunk, up close and delightful 
The Bunk, clad in festive garb, sits for a portraitHave a happy, safe, and healthy holiday!
Monsoon's End-of-the-Year Forecast, Featuring WeatherTable 7013
Yo yo yo,
Well, that Nor’easter really packed a wallop, huh? We had about 10 inches here in northern Lancaster County, a bit less in Reading, and in excess of two feet in some places in and around Philadelphia! Nothing like that in our immediate future, but there are a couple of winter weather potentialities in the forecast…
The weather:
Weather narrative: Pretty quiet until Friday, when Christmas is celebrated. A bit of sleet or freezing rain is possible very early in the morning, but temperatures will rise rather quickly into the mid- and upper-30s, so this will be rain. Look for widely scattered light showers and drizzle for the most part throughout the day, continuing overnight and into Saturday, when Boxing Day is celebrated.
The next few days will be cold, but not damned cold, like it’ll be the second half of the week. If you’re planning on being outside for New Year’s Eve, whether in Times Square for the dropping of the ball or in Dillsburg, PA for the Pickle Drop, temperatures will be in the teens as we herald in 2010, so bundle up!
Speaking of heralding in the New Year, we may see some snow around Saturday the 2nd or Sunday the 3rd…
Beyond the forecast: Frigid conditions will predominate until a mid-month “thaw” during which high temperatures will reach into the 40s and perhaps even the 50s. Reality sets back in later in January, along with the potential for more accumulating snowfall.
Monsoon's December Nor'easter Forecast
Well, well. A December Nor’easter. I’ll be damned.
Long term forecast is in the works, but what you really want to hear about is this weekend’s storm, so here goes…
Snow begins early Saturday morning (perhaps before dawn), rather light at first but intensifying after noon. Heaviest snow will be in the afternoon and through the evening. Snow will taper off overnight, though there’s a chance of a few light snow showers lingering into Sunday morning.
Temperatures will hold in the mid 20s for the entirety of this storm, so there will be no mixing and we’ll get good “fluff” (or snow ratios) here. There are also signs the system will slow down once it gets here, potentially increasing snow totals further. Watch for blowing and drifting as winds kick up in the afternoon and evening on Saturday.
Caveat: storms like this are notoriously difficult to predict, since we’re depending on the low to bomb out off the coast and drive the moisture into our area. A shift of 20-30 miles in track could affect the snow totals—and who gets hit—significantly. Here’s a look at the impressive area of moisture as it churns through the south…
But…no guts, no glory, so I won’t hedge. Here are my predicted storm totals:
Philadelphia and the immediate suburbs, northern Maryland and Delaware, and border areas of south Jersey: 10-14 inches; more in isolated areas
Lancaster, York, and Berks Counties, Lehigh Valley and vicinity: 6-10 inches; more in isolated areas
Lebanon, Dauphin and Cumberland Counties and the central portion of PA: 4-6 inches.
Stay tuned for tweakage and updates as they become necessary…
Monsoon's Holiday Wishes & Plea for Assistance
Good people,
I am busily preparing my yuletide weather report, including an appraisal of Saturday’s potential snow (models are all over the place, but my preliminary take is that the system is going to our south and we’ll get only an inch or two). I’m also checking out what lies ahead for the holiday break. Look for that forecast tonight or tomorrow.
But first, I have a silly request. You know those calendars printed on a little card about the size of a credit card, designed to go in your wallet? The ones that are typically given away this time of year by small businesses, banks, insurance companies, greeting card stores, etc.? My dad likes to have a bunch of those handy—one for his wallet, one for his bedstead, one for the kitchen, one for … next to the john, I don’t know. The point is this: his usual source (their credit union) has stopped giving them out this year, and my dad is jonesing for 2010 calendars, hard. Problem is, you can’t just buy these things anywhere. In an ironic twist worthy of O. Henry (well, maybe not quite), this is the one gift that would probably make him most happy, and I haven’t been able to find the damned things anywhere.
So, my fine readers, if you are out and about and see one or a few of these wallet calendar cards (and you don’t want them for yourselves), could you pick them up? It would be most appreciated.
Here at Mifflin, we’re anxiously awaiting our holiday break; our last day of school is tomorrow. It is becoming more and more evident that a nice, lengthy break is precisely what we need. I’m not sure if it was the student who showed me a video her group had made for a nineteenth amendment project in social studies—in which she and the members of her group were chanting “No more women’s suffrage!” and “Women’s suffrage has got to go!” due to a fundamental misunderstanding of the meaning of the word “suffrage.” Maybe it was the young man in my class who laid on the counter by the window like a cat in a sunbeam, then nuzzled his head into the back of a startled peer while making meowing noises, almost precipitating an attack by this bewildered boy. Then again, maybe it’s the “ball taps” and the cell phones and the rampant tomfoolery in the hallway.
Whatever the reason, it’s definitely time for a break.
I hope yours is happy and healthy, and I sincerely hope you’re able to spend time with people you like to be around. Have a great holiday season!
Monsoon's Winter Precipitation Forecast
Today is friggin’ cold. Any damned fool who has stepped outside can tell that. In fact, it’s going to struggle to get to 30 this afternoon, and given the blustery conditions, wind chills will be in the teens for much of the day. Low tonight: 18.
Saturday looks a bit warmer and still breezy, getting up to a balmy 35, then down to 22 overnight. Mostly sunny skies throughout the day will give way to increasing clouds late.
On Sunday we’ll see light sleet and snow developing by 10am or so, changing first to freezing rain (meaning that it may freeze to surfaces), then changing by early afternoon to plain old rain. The rain will continue through the nighttime, tapering overnight. Expect highs in the low 40s and a low Sunday night in the mid 30s.
Partly sunny and a bit milder on Monday with a high in the mid 40s.
Chance of cancellation Monday: 5%
Chance of delay Monday: 10%
The next chance of winter precipitation is on Tuesday into Wednesday, when a strong cold front and an area of moisture will coincide. But as of now, this doesn’t look like anything to get a jazzed up about.
After that, the next good chance of snow is around the 22nd to the 23rd.
Stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon's Precipitation Update: Tuesday night into Wednesday
A big system with a lot of moisture is headed our way for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moderating temperatures, however, will mean that a good bit of this will fall as rain, rather than frozen precipitation.
Things get underway after 9pm Tuesday night with some light snow and flurries, as temperatures then will be hovering around freezing. We’ll see temperatures in the 31-34 range from Tuesday night until about 6 or 7 Wednesday morning, meaning there’s a decent chance we’ll see some snow and sleet at the front end of this mess. This could cause a bit of slush and even ice on roads, particularly during early-morning commutes. But by and large, this will be a liquid (not solid, or even semi-solid) affair; I don’t foresee any major delays or problems from this one.
As the morning wears on, temperatures will rise into the low 40s and the rain will get steadier and heavier, washing away any frozen stuff that has fallen overnight (and even what fell over the past weekend). Rain tapers toward late Wednesday afternoon as a very strong cold front moves through.
Temperatures on Wednesday night will reach down into the upper 20s. Highs for the rest of the week will only be in the mid 30s, and windy conditions will produce daytime wind chills in the 20s. (Thursday and Friday nights could even see single-digit wind chills, so watch out.)
More of the same (with a bit less wind) for the coming weekend.
Chance of a two-hour delay on Wednesday 12/9: 30%
Chance of cancellation on Wednesday: 15%
Stay tuned: I will update the situation as needed if my thinking changes on this system.
Monsoon's Snow Alert!® for 4 December 2009
Regarding the Saturday 12/5 snow event: A few of the models are blowing this event up into an eight-incher, but I think we all need to whoa the horsey and take a reasonable look at this thing: it's going to be a fairly glancing blow to our area.
Rain showers and drizzle Saturday early afternoon will quickly turn to snow, tapering toward midnight. High temp around 38 and falling through the afternoon and evening. Accumulations will be widely variable. Some areas could get as much as 3-4 inches; some will just get a coating to an inch. Most places will see an inch or two of accumulated snowfall. In general, places south and west of Philadelphia will see more accumulation than places north and east.
Once the rain changes over to wet snow, it won’t “stick” at first because surface temperatures are so moderate. But cold air aloft will filter down in a hurry, bringing temperatures down and making roads Saturday night potentially slushy and a bit slippery. Use caution.
Becoming sunny and clear Sunday with a high only in the low 40s. Look for sunny conditions and highs in the mid 40s during the first part of next week as well.
Next good chance of snow is around the 15th or 16th.
Monsoon's Precipitation Update for Tuesday night, 1 December 2009
Just wanted to alert you to two developing weather stories: heavy rain and wind on Wednesday and possible snow showers this weekend!
Wednesday 12/2 will begin with partly cloudy skies; clouds will increase ahead of a storm front. Expect light to moderate rain to begin by about 2 or 3pm. The rain will intensify (buckets!) throughout the evening and overnight, dropping three-quarters of an inch in most places with an inch or more locally. Watch for flooding in isolated areas. Temperatures will hold rather steady in the neighborhood of 50 for much of the day and evening Wednesday.
Rain will taper into Thursday morning, with a few lingering showers possible into Thursday afternoon. Look for strong winds in excess of 20mph—with gusts exceeding 30mph—overnight and into Thursday morning. Winds will diminish throughout the day on Thursday.
Expect a high into the mid 50s Thursday, followed by a low around freezing as the cold front completes its journey.
Friday 12/4 is looking sunny and cool with a high in the mid 40s and lows into the upper 20s.
On Saturday we could see a few rain and/or snow showers throughout the day, but right now it’s not looking like the moisture is organized enough (nor is the air going to be cold enough) to make this our fifth December 5th snowstorm in the 2000s. Expect highs not above 40 (and falling through the day) and lows Saturday night in the upper 20s. If this becomes anything to get worked up about, I’ll let you guys know.
Sunny, clear and calm for Sunday with a high in the low 40s and a low in the upper 20s.
Next week is looking cool with highs in the mid 40s, and even colder later in the week, when temperatures won’t even get out of the 30s. Look out for a bit of rain on Wednesday 12/9 or Thursday 12/10.
Stay tuned!
Monsoon's One-Year Bunkiversary Extravaganza!
Woof.
It is time once again to celebrate the life and times of The Bunk, who just turned 15 months old. This time last year (Thanksgiving break) was when that magnificent little fuzzball came into our lives.
Over the past few months, The Bunk has acquired a cousin—a Bichon Frise puppy named Buttons, who was welcomed into the Spatz family. Buttons is a wily, diminutive bundle of naughtiness, and the two of them have taken quite well to hanging out together some days. The picture below is a fine illustration of the horseplay in which Bunk and Buttons typically indulge.
The Bunk and Buttons - so named because of his cute little button eyes - have a snarling, furry romp in the kitchen
The Bunk also endured another health issue (though he’s completely fine now): he had a strange growth between two of his “toes,” and it turned out that it was a benign tumor caused by a viral infection. The upshot is that he had to have the thing removed, so about two weeks of pain pills and antibiotics and a wrapped paw followed that. We did use the “cone” for a few days, but he found a way to winkle out of it in his crate anyway, so we just abandoned it. Besides, he left the dressing alone and was, over all, a champ about the whole process.
The Bunk, heavily medicated, rests in his favorite spot; note the bandage on the left front paw
Since he was drugged up and just wanted to be left alone to sleep, Mrs. Monsoon and I neglected to brush him consistently. As a result, by the middle of this month, The Bunk’s coat was a frowzy mass of tangles and mats. And so, the good people at Total Dog and a Little Cat had to shear our boy dramatically when he returned to their fold for some grooming.
The Bunk, shorn, relaxes with loved ones on Thanksgiving Day
We did have The Bunk in a Halloween costume, but he was clad in it so fleetingly that no in-focus photographic evidence exists of this event. We managed to cram a bat-themed headband on him and he sat still long enough for us to snap a picture. Soon thereafter, he cuffed the offending headgear off and began to attack it.
The Bunk wears bat headband, fleetingly
For the upcoming holiday, I make this promise: I will clothe The Bunk in festive garb, take a picture of the result, and post it here on the weblog. Speaking of the holidays, here is a shot of The Bunk attacking a little stuffed reindeer toy I could not resist purchasing today at Petsmart.
The Bunk vs. stuffed reindeer toy; Monsoon's prediction: reindeer will be headless by December
The Bunk continues to amaze us each and every day with his steadfastness, his devotion, his sweetness. He follows us around, from floor to floor and room to room, simply because he needs to be near us—not in an annoying way, but it a faithful way. Marika noted on Thanksgiving Day that The Bunk is "a leaner." That is, when he wants to show affection or wishes to be petted, he leans into this person in the most snuggly (yet insistent) way. When one of us comes home—or kith and kin come for a visit—he can’t help jumping up to signal his joy. We’re still trying to curtail this behavior, but haven’t yet had much success.
I’ll wrap up here with a few more pictures of The Bunk for your delight. Enjoy the rest of your holiday break!
The Bunk sits adorably by the window. Face it: he's the most beautiful dog in the whole world. Seriously. Get over it. 
The Bunk takes a well-earned break from roughhousing with Buttons
Monsoon's Quick Weather Update for Thanksgiving 2009
Gobble.
Just wanted to give you a quick update on the holiday weekend weather, as well as what to expect as we head into December…
Tuesday night: Misty and drizzly overnight with a low in the low 40s.
Wednesday 11/25: After a foggy early morning, expect mostly cloudy skies with scattered periods of light rain and drizzle. High 54, low 44.
Thursday 11/26: Clouds mixed with sunshine and a slight chance of an afternoon shower; rain more likely Thursday evening and overnight into Friday. High 58, low 40.
Friday 11/27: Cloudy, chilly and windy with showers throughout the morning and afternoon. Showers tapering at night with clearing overnight. High 44, low 33.
Saturday 11/28: Mostly sunny and very windy, particularly early. Slight chance of some early-morning light snow showers as precipitation moves away; no accumulation to speak of. High 47, low 32.
Sunday 11/29: Partly cloudy and breezy. High 50, low 35.
Monday 11/30: Partly cloudy to start, then clouding up with a chance of rain in the evening. High 53, low 39.
Tuesday 12/1: Overcast and rainy as a cold front moves into the area. Temperatures will dip precipitously at night. High 52, low 27.
The remainder of the week: Noticeably colder with highs only in the mid 40s and lows into the mid 20s.
The following weekend and beyond: Even colder, with highs not even making it out of the 30s for much of this period. The first chance of snowfall appears to be headed into the area around December 7th or 8th…
Have a restful and agreeable Thanksgiving break.
Sarah Palin Book Signing Interviews
Check out this video of Sarah Palin fans waiting outside a Columbus, Ohio Borders for her book signing last week.
It makes one wonder how this country ever elected someone like Barack Obama.
Favorite quotes from her supporters:
- "Um, fairness? Realness?" - on what specific policies Sarah Palin stands for
- "The way the country's goin', I wonder if we're gonna have an election in 2012."
- "I don't even think he's an American citizen." - from a "birther"
- "When you're right, you don't have a compromise. Compromise is for people that are wrong."
- "We do need to have profiling. I mean, the politically correctness has got to get out now. I mean, we're Americans, and she sticks up for the American people. Not for other people. We're first, other people last."
- "To be honest witchu, I don't know anything about her foreign policy."
- "Limit spending and ... cap and trade, and all that."
- "Well, his Marxism, Leninism, socialism..." - on what Barack Obama intends to institute in America, according to his books
- "The state that she did govern was right across the street from Russia."
Chilling. Breathtaking. Depressing.
Comments? I welcome any and all.
Monsoon's Forecast - including the official Monsoon Martin Winter Weather Outlook® for 2009-2010
After an unseasonably warm weekend, temperatures are going to take a steady nosedive over the next couple of weeks, leading perhaps to our first snowstorm! Temperatures overnight tonight will get into the mid 30s.
Below the WeatherTable and narrative is my Winter Weather Outlook for 2009-2010. Enjoy! Comments and counter-predictions are welcome.
The weather:
Weather narrative: Cooler this week with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Mainly dry with showers and drizzle possible late Thursday and throughout the day Friday. The weekend looks nice: highs in the mid 50s and autumnally crisp.
We’ll begin next week with a bit of rain, after which temperatures will begin to dip – highs will be in the upper 40s to about 50.
The following weekend is looking potentially interesting (note the four-letter word in the WeatherTable) and much colder.
Beyond the forecast: The cold trend will continue into December as highs stay in the mid to upper 30s and lows will continue to dip well into the 20s.
Winter Weather Outlook: And, as promised, here is the official Monsoon Martin Winter Weather Outlook® for 2009-2010. I’ve examined the data, I’ve crunched the numbers, I’ve consulted the models, and I’ve mulled my hunches. Here’s what I came up with…
Over all, I expect that the upcoming winter will be a bit colder than normal, and we’ll have a bit more snowfall than normal. (Snowfall totals for Berks and Lancaster Counties usually average in the range of upper 28” to 34”. Philadelphia and suburbs are usually in the low to mid 20s. This forecast is for Berks and Lancaster Counties only.)
December will begin with colder than normal temperatures and some wet snow by the 2nd week of the month. I think we could also see a small Nor’easter by mid-month. Things dry out for a couple of weeks, but the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day may be snowy. Predicted snowfall: 6”
January will begin with mild and rainy weather, followed by a period of relative pleasantness. By mid-month we’ll see some snowstorms (or ice storms), and they’ll make an appearance at the frigid end of the month too. Predicted snowfall: 12”
February looks bitterly cold, especially the first two weeks. I see a couple of Nor’easter storms this month, either of which could bring blizzard-like conditions and dump in excess of a foot of snow in the region. The month ends, and March begins, with moderating temperatures and rainy weather. Predicted snowfall: 18”
March will bring another smaller storm, and then we’ll see a warm-up by mid-month. This rapid thaw could bring significant flooding in some areas. Predicted snowfall: 4”
The Recap: An active winter lies ahead: temperatures will be a bit below normal with some bitterly cold periods; snowfall will be above normal. Look for snow totals in the vicinity of 40” by the end of the season. I’m predicting 3-4 school cancellations and 5-6 delays this season. Get those scrapers, shovels, and snow-blowers ready!
Monsoonian Rhapsody: Kyma Seafood Grill
Saying there’s a great seafood restaurant to be found in Lancaster County is a bit like suggesting that it’s feasible to get an authentic cheesesteak in Mississippi, or that a white person can look good with dreadlocks. Well, Topher, let your natty dreads fly and get your cracker ass down to Biloxi to order “one, widout,” because there is a great seafood restaurant in Lancaster County.
It’s called Kyma Seafood Grill (pronounced KEY-muh, from the Greek word for wave), and it opened on June 30th, 2009. Locale is 1640 North Reading Road (Route 272) in Denver at the former site of the Silk City Diner, in the same building as Johnny’s Steakhouse, which is located downstairs and is accessed at the rear of the building.
Brothers Nick and George Barakos, who own both Johnny’s and Kyma, basically gutted both the drab, pedestrian interior and the mediocre, family-restaurant menu of the Silk City Diner, leaving only the footprint of the former eatery. The result is a sleek, modern décor with upscale touches: neon blue and red strip lights lining the top edge of the main dining room, wave murals and a dynamic, wave-inspired logo, and lots of dark wood. The brightly-lit bar area is contrasted by more moderately lighted seating areas—booths and tables—accommodating about 160 patrons.
But it’s the fresh, masterfully prepared food at Kyma that will make us go back for more. Kyma’s single-page, oversized menu includes both cold and hot appetizers, all in the $10 price range, as well as a variety of salads (in the $10-$15 range). Kyma offers specialty drinks as well as more traditional fare, both alcoholic and non-alcoholic. (Mrs. Monsoon recommends the Fallen Mermaid martini—and making sure you have a ride home.) Most impressive to me is the fact that they use Pepsi fountain products; most restaurants, to their detriment, use Coca-Cola or concoct their own, vaguely cola-like travesties.
The entrées include seafood and steaks—most of which are in the $15-$20 range, with some $25 or a bit more, depending on market price. Check the menu for details, but entrée offerings include ahi tuna, halibut, tilapia, steak & lobster tail, and various shrimp and crab dishes. Kyma is particularly known for its Colossal Crab Cake, if online reviews are to be believed. The steaks are the same that are served at Johnny’s Steakhouse downstairs, so the quality and preparation are outstanding. In addition, entrées come with choice of soup or salad and one side; sides include fries, roasted garlic mashed potato, steam veggies, rice pilaf, and more.
We visited Kyma on Saturday night, arriving at about 5:15. We were greeted immediately and seated in a small side room that offered privacy but did not leave us feeling “cut off” from the rest of the patrons. (We did not have to wait, but the place got crowded pretty quickly. On our way out, we noticed several parties waiting to be seated.) Our waitress, Madeline, was exceptional, offering drink and entrée ideas, answering questions, and chatting amiably about her own background and preferences. The timing of salad and soup, then entrée, was exquisite. She was also snappy with a Pepsi refill, bringing a replacement before I even had to ask. The ambiance and professionalism of the staff left the impression of a popular dining spot in the city rather than a restaurant along a mostly industrial stretch of 272.
After the obligatory bread and butter, Mrs. Monsoon and I settled in and made our choices: I would have the Snow Crab Legs (1 ½ lbs. steamed, with butter, $22), with a cup of the Chesapeake Crab soup and a side of fries; she would have the Chilean Sea Bass ($25) with the roasted garlic mashed potato and a side salad.
Friends, yum. The house vinaigrette on the side salad was very good; the thick-cut sea bass was grilled lightly and cooked to perfection. The crab soup had a bit of “bite” to it, but I have a lightweight palate for hot n’ spicy fare, and I was just fine.
The crab legs were freaking delicious. They’d been “scored” and steamed flawlessly, so the shells cracked easily and yielded large chunks of succulent meat. There was a little side of melted butter, too, but the sweet crab scarcely needed it. The fries were out of this world—batter-dipped, crispy, and flavorful.
The food at Kyma is prepared just the way the menu indicates, with no unnecessary ingredients or culinary-school flourishes. It is not fussy or pretentious, and the cook had not smeared old bay seasoning over everything. Those who know me can vouch for my persnickety-hood, and have probably seen a minor hissy-fit or two when an otherwise palatable food is unexpectedly slathered with a Hollandaise mushroom gravy. No such histrionics were needed at Kyma.
The food is well worth the money, but prices at Kyma are not cheap, so it’s not a place we’ll be able to afford on a regular basis. (A couple should expect a check in the $60-$70 range, before gratuity.) But I would highly recommend a visit for its delectable seafood and excellent service.
Kyma is open Tuesday through Tuesday from 4 to 10pm; Friday and Saturday from 4 to 10:30pm; and Sunday from 4 to 9pm; it is closed Mondays. Reservations are only accepted during the week and may be made by calling 717-335-3833.
Directions can be MapQuested from their website, but here are the basics…
From Reading, take 222 South to the Pennsylvania Turnpike/Denver exit. Make a right at the light at the end of the ramp. At the next light, turn left onto 272 South. Kyma will be on your right after about a mile.
From Lancaster, take 222 North to the Pennsylvania Turnpike/Denver exit. Make a left at the light at the end of the ramp. At the second light, turn left onto 272 South. Kyma will be on your right after about a mile.
From Philadelphia and suburban points, take the Pennsylvania Turnpike west to exit 286. After the toll plaza, continue straight for about a mile to the third traffic light. Turn left onto 272 South. Kyma will be on your right after about a mile.
Quick Weather Update from Monsoon for Wednesday, 21 October 2009
Well. 30s and rainy last Thursday for the Renaissance Faire trip; 70s and sunny tomorrow. Last week I was shivering in the Shire, and today the ladybugs were desperately flinging themselves against my window by the hundreds. Could we have some “average” fall weather (highs in the low 60s and upper 50s; lows in the upper 30s or low 40s, with moderate precipitation)? The answer is yes, by the weekend. Here’s a quick update.
Thursday 10/22: pleasant and unseasonably warm with plenty of sunshine. High 74, low 48.
Friday 10/23: overcast and a bit cooler with showers developing by late afternoon, continuing and becoming heavy at times overnight. High 62, low 54.
Saturday 10/24: cloudy and windy with a shower or thunderstorm early, then clearing, remaining breezy, and cooling off. High 64, low 45.
Sunday 10/25: partly cloudy, seasonably cool and breezy. High 57, low 39.
Monday 10/26: partly cloudy and autumnally appropriate. High 60, low 41.
Tuesday 10/27: more clouds than sun; a few showers. High 62, low 48.
Wednesday 10/28 & Thursday 10/29: partly to mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with some showers possible late Thursday. Highs in the mid to upper 60s; lows in the upper 40s.
Friday 10/30 and Halloween weekend: cloudy, turning colder and perhaps a little rainy on Friday night (high 58, low 36). Clear and colder on Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 40s, and lows in the low 30s.
The first week of November: More of the same. Those of us who haven’t yet seen the first frost will see it this week. As temperatures could dip into the upper 20s at night and there is at least one interesting system moving through, we could see some…no. I dare not speak its name yet.
P.S. Major weather outlets have released (or are preparing to release) their 2009-2010 winter weather outlooks. I am preparing such a package of prognostication and will release it by month’s end.
Monsoon's "Fall or Winter?" Forecast for Tuesday, 13 October 2009
Happy Columbus Day!!
Not. I hate him.
Well, before long folks will be grumbling about the weather skipping autumn altogether and heading right into winter…and if you take a look at the forecast below, you’ll see the grumblers may actually have a point. Average highs for mid-October round here are in the mid 60s; average lows are in the low 40s. Check out what we’re in for…
The weather:
Weather narrative: The weather feels more like late fall than early fall, with temperatures well below normal. A bit of rain is possible every day from Wednesday through Sunday, but I’m seeing a lot of showers and drizzle rather than downpours and washouts, so outdoor plans for those days are still feasible. (The Renaissance Faire trip for students on 10/15 is looking cloudy and cold right now, but should not be spoilt by an abundance of rain.) There have even been some models producing a rain-snow solution for Friday night 10/16 in some outlying areas, but I think that’s highly unlikely to come to fruition.
By the latter part of next weekend, expect clearing and dry conditions with some warming toward seasonable levels by midweek.
Beyond the forecast: The trend for the last week in October is for seasonable conditions (highs in the low 60s, lows in the upper 30s to low 40s) and some more precipitation. I do think the first frost will hold off until the first or second week in November.