Forecast for the two-week period following Monday, 14 February 2011
My good people,
I write to give you only good news about the weather, not to alert you to potential wintry weather headaches and scheduling snafus. Enjoy…
Monday 2/14: quite windy (especially in the evening) with periods of clouds and sun. High 49, but wind chills will be in the 30s. Look for falling temperatures late.
Tuesday 2/15: plenty of sunshine but breezy and colder. High 38, low 22.
Wednesday 2/16: partly sunny and milder. High 48, low 34.
Thursday 2/17: plenty of sunshine and milder still. High 56, low 38.
Friday 2/18: sun with some breaks of clouds and milder still, provoking such comments as, “Spring has sprung!” and “It’s a heatwave!” and “Hot damn – I can finally wear my tube top and Daisy Dukes to the mall!” High 63, low 39.
Next weekend (the 19th and 20th) will be a bit cooler – highs in the low 50s on Saturday (but windy conditions will make it feel cooler) and the low 40s on Sunday.
Next week starts off rainy and cool; some wet snow could mix in overnight into Tuesday as temperatures fall below freezing, but I see only slush (no travel or school disruptions) at this point. But Wednesday 2/23 – when the high looks like it will only just reach the freezing mark – is when we could have a return of some winter weather. Of course, I’ll keep an eye on that and let you know if it’s anything to be concerned about. Right now, I think the overall warming pattern will be too strong to allow this system to do any winter weather damage. Following this storm, we’ll see plenty of sunshine but lingering coldness – highs only in the low to mid 30s on Thursday and Friday.
The following weekend brings the chance of more precipitation, but it looks like things will be warm enough by then to render this wetness in liquid form only.
Stay tuned for updates!
Piddly, rainy dusting and a non-clusterjam
My good people,
I realize I am about to disappoint thousands of school children and hundreds of teachers in the forecast area, but I have to keep it real: this week will likely be the first in a while with no delays or cancellations due to winter weather.
The details...
Expect a high in the mid 40s today, which will feel positively balmy compared with the frigid conditions we've been enduring. A few rain showers develop this evening (after 6pm or so), becoming steadier overnight. This is not heavy rain. Overnight and into Tuesday morning, the rain could mix with a bit of wet snow, but accumulations will be an inch at most. The good news is that the roads will mostly be just wet, so slippery/hazardous driving conditions should not materialize.
Probability of delay Tuesday, 20%
Probability of cancellation Tuesday, 10%
Behind this system, we'll see windy and much colder weather. The low Tuesday night will get down into the lower teens.
On Wednesday and Thursday, we'll see partly sunny skies with highs at or just below 30 and lows around 12.
The Thursday clusterjam, which Fox 29 lounge lizard / smarm merchant / chief ballyhooer / meteorologist John Bolaris called the "Storm of the Century," now looks to be a miss. As in, not gonna happen. I'd get into the details of why, but I don't want to bore you to death.
Anywho, right around mid-month, it appears there will be a major shift in the pattern...so the worst of winter could be behind us.
How about that?
Stay tuned for updates...
Weekend event + next week Nor'easter?
A few systems to talk about...
First, this weekend... Light to moderate snow will arrive in the hours just after midnight tonight and continuing until late morning before changing over to rain for the bulk of the afternoon. Precipitation may briefly change back to snow in the early evening as the storm moves out. Total accumulations will be an inch or two at the most, and travel disruptions should be fairly minimal. Do use caution and common sense when driving or walking in any wintry precipitation, though.
Highs will be in the upper 30s to near 40 on Sunday and Monday before another potential winter weather-maker moves through. This one will be Monday night and Tuesday morning, but will just bring us snow and rain showers. And wind! Gales and gales of wind.
Then cold: highs in the mid to upper 20s for Wednesday with breezy conditions.
Thursday 2/10 is when some forecast model solutions are pointing to a mega-blizzard for the eastern seaboard. If all falls right, there will be plenty of cold air in place to create a historic whiteout snowdump clusterjam. But hey--we're almost a week away from that one, so let's hold off on the hand-wringing and knicker-knotting for now. My gut feeling at this point is that it's not going to be that impressive.
Beyond all that, we could be dealing with some icing problems on Monday 2/14 into Tuesday 2/15, but again--way too early to call at this point.
Stay tuned for updates!
Holy Mess: The Aftermath + what's next?
As I look out my window at still-covered limbs and power lines (as well as plenty of twigs and branches on the ground), I am thankful mine is not one of the thousands of households in the area that lost power. Aside from the outages, we're dealing with dense fog in some areas (particularly Delaware and South Jersey) due to the rapidity of temperature change.
The weather stations in the area are all above freezing as of now (12:30pm) - between 33 and 37 degrees, generally. Expect afternoon highs to approach 40 before beginning the plummet after 5pm or so, eventually reaching 20 degrees by the Thursday morning commute. We could see a rain or snow shower or two late this afternoon or evening, but nothing major.
Thursday will be mostly sunny and colder, with a high struggling to reach 30 and gusty daytime winds. Friday will also be sunny but less windy; high will be at 32 or so.
Probability of at least a delay Thursday, 75% (as I said, it's going to be around 20 in time for the morning commute, and some folks--not to mention schools--will still be dealing with power outages by tomorrow morning. And this afternoon's meltage could refreeze as well.)
Probability of cancellation Thursday, 55% (for the reasons listed above.)
Probability of at least a delay Friday, 60% (temperatures will be in the mid teens during the Friday morning commute, so things could be dicey again.)
Probability of cancellation Friday, 35% (for the reasons listed above. Plus, at this point, what's another snow day? Mifflin has now had five.)
The next system to affect our area will move in Friday night - snow showers will begin by 9 or 10pm and continue overnight, with the steadiest precipitation to fall late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. The system winds up with some snow showers approaching midnight Saturday. There will likely be some mixing (snow mixed with sleet or even freezing rain for a time), but the majority of this precipitation will be snow. I expect 3 to 5 inches of accumulation here.
I heard that stream of profanity, and it's not very couth, my friend. We're all frustrated by this brutal winter. But hey - Punxsutawney Phil didn't see his shadow this morning, so we're in for an early spring! Well no, I don't think it's anatomically possible for a groundhog to do that to himself.
There's the further possibility of snow and mixed precipitation on Monday 2/7 into Tuesday 2/8.
Alright, using those words is just uncalled for. Surely we can express ourselves more appropriately? We're two-thirds of the way through meteorological winter (December, January, February) and this is the shortest month of the year! No, I will not take a long walk off a short pier. That's just hateful.
And Saturday the 12th into Sunday the 13th could be ugly as well.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Honestly, I've never heard such filth in all my life. What the h-e-double-hockey sticks is going on here, guys? Alright, for those of you who feel you need profanity to express your rage, perhaps this clip will be cathartic:
Stay tuned for updates...
Holy Mess Update: Tuesday Afternoon
Warm air aloft changed the precipitation type to sleet sooner than expected, and the bulk of the precipitation stayed to our north, keeping snowfall accumulations down in the forecast area. However, even just a bit of ice can cause major havoc, and I think that's what wigged a lot of districts into cancelling classes today.
Anyway, looking forward...
The current lull in precipitation will crank back up around 6 or 7pm tonight, with the steadiest precipitation from 9pm through late Wednesday morning.
Current radar indicates a lull until this evening. The giant area of moisture currently giving a buttload of snow to Oklahoma, Missouri, and Illinois will make things nasty for us here overnight...
Precipitation type will be primarily dependent on when the temperature rises above freezing. We'll see sleet and freezing rain for the bulk of the precipitation, which will still cause the massive icing and hazardous conditions I talked about in my previous post.
I think we'll see temperatures above freezing from about 10am to 5pm Wednesday, so as the storm pulls away, the precipitation will change to rain and wash away a bit of the mess. On Wednesday evening as the temperature plummets to the low 20s and the winds kick up, we could see some dangerous refreezing and even a quick snow shower or two. So be careful driving Wednesday night.
Thursday looks to be frigid with a high below freezing and a low (overnight into Friday) approaching the single digits.
We could see some snow showers on Saturday, but as of now it doesn't look like anything to be worried about.
Next good chance for snow is Tuesday 2/8 into Wednesday 2/9, as well as Saturday 2/12 into Sunday 2/13...
School scheduling meter:
Probability of at least a delay Wednesday, 80%
Probability of cancellation Wednesday, 60%
Probability of at least a delay Thursday, 65%
Probability of cancellation Thursday, 35%
Probability of at least a delay Friday, 35%
Probability of cancellation Friday, 15%
Stay tuned for further in-storm updates!
Monsoon's Forecast: The Groundhog Day Holy Mess
This is a challenging forecast—again—because of the storm’s complexity. Timing (of precipitation arrivals and mixing) will be the key in terms of school scheduling. There is also the wildcard of warmer air aloft, which affects the precipitation type we will see.
But you didn’t come here for hogwash and horsefeathers, now did you? No, you came here for a definitive forecast. And a definitive forecast you shall damned well receive.
Reading/Berks: flurries and light snow showers arrive as early as 8 or 9pm this evening, becoming a steadier snow after midnight. The snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain by early Tuesday afternoon, becoming all ice by late afternoon. Snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches.
Snow arrives late Monday night into Tuesday morning.The temperature will rise only into the upper 20s through this period, so the precipitation that does fall—even if it is rain—will freeze to surfaces.
There will be a bit of a lull in the precipitation later Tuesday evening before the moisture cranks up, delivering us nearly an inch of freezing rain overnight into Wednesday morning. The temperature will finally climb above freezing by late Wednesday morning, so plain rain will fall then. However, expect hazardous driving conditions through the afternoon and evening as the rain will simply coat the thick ice and snow already packed on roadways.
Freezing rain Tuesday into Wednesday will create widespread icing before the precipitation changes to plain rain later Wednesday.Finally, on Wednesday evening, as arctic air floods the region, the precipitation will likely end as snow showers, with steadier bands producing perhaps an inch of additional accumulation. Oh, and it will be quite windy, too.
The aforementioned arctic air will drive temperatures down into the teens by Thursday morning, and highs will only reach the mid 20s on Thursday. Single-digit lows are possible on Thursday night into Friday.
My primary concern with this storm is icing. If we have a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain—and I think we will—we will see downed power lines, downed tree limbs, and travel difficulties, especially on back roads and untreated surfaces. In addition, the widespread icing will make for poor flying weather (e.g., ice-clad wings and runways), so expect a prolonged period of delayed and cancelled flights from Tuesday morning into Thursday morning. School scheduling percentages...
Probability of at least a delay Tuesday: 90%
Probability of cancellation Tuesday: 80%
Probability of at least a delay Wednesday: 80%
Probability of cancellation Wednesday: 70%
Probability of at least a delay Thursday: 65%
Probability of cancellation Thursday: 40%
Probability of at least a delay Friday: 45%
Probability of cancellation Friday: 25%
And now, by popular demand, here’s the outlook for some other places…
Pittsburgh: snow arrives by 6 or 7pm tonight, then continues overnight, accumulating an inch or two before changing over to freezing rain before dawn. Freezing rain changes over to plain rain by late morning Tuesday. Temperatures will rise well above freezing throughout the day, so this precipitation should not create icing. Rain may freeze on surfaces on Tuesday night, especially at higher elevations, so use caution. Rain will change back over to light snow on Wednesday afternoon and evening, accumulating only a coating to an inch.
Philadelphia, northern Delaware, and South Jersey: snow arrives after midnight and accumulates only a coating to an inch before changing to freezing rain and sleet by mid-morning Tuesday. This mess changes to all rain by late afternoon, so impact on the evening commute should be minimal. Freezing rain overnight and into Wednesday morning will likely compromise the AM commute, but will quickly change over to rain. There may be a few snow showers in the evening, but these will yield little to no accumulation.
Central and northern New Jersey, as well as NYC: snow arrives after midnight and accumulates 4-6 inches before changing to freezing rain and sleet by mid-afternoon Tuesday. There could be a half-inch or more accumulation of sleet and ice by Tuesday night. Icing will be a major problem on Tuesday and will likely cancel schools and make travel treacherous. Freezing rain continues overnight, but plain rain by late morning should wash away a lot of the “ick.” Expect snow showers by late afternoon into the evening, then clearing.
Of course, stay tuned for updates and tweakage on the forecast and throughout the storm…
On a final note, monsoonmartin.squarespace.com has had its best month ever in January, thanks to you guys – well over 5,000 hits. I know that a video of a bulldog humping a stuffed animal can get 5,000 hits in a few hours on YouTube, but still, this is a major milestone for me. So hey…thanks for tuning in, or dialing me up, or whatever. Big ups to the Weather Crew!!
Monsoon's update: Little Clipper II and next week's holy mess
Yesterday's Little Clipper I gave us about an inch on grassy surfaces and provided an unwelcome distraction throughout the school day; last night, however, those wet surfaces froze and caused some slippery spots, especially in parking lots and on sidewalks.
Today's Little Clipper II looks a bit juicy in spots - some moderate bands of precipitation should move through the Berks area between noon and 4pm or so. We could end up getting an inch or two out of this, and for a time it might snow steadily enough that it actually sticks on the roads. So use caution when driving.
See that area of darker blue over central PA right now? That's the bit that's juicier than what was originally forecast with Little Clipper II.
Behind these two Little Clippers, we'll have a seasonable Sunday (highs in the mid 30s) before once again contending with extreme cold (highs on Monday and Tuesday will only be in the mid to upper 20s).
And then there's the protracted, mixed holy mess.
The timing is tricky right now, but my best guess is that it's going to be around from Tuesday morning through Thursday morning.
Tuesday morning: light snow filters in ahead of the storm, resulting in little to no accumulation.
Tuesday evening: snow arrives, continuing overnight and into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday: snow will mix with and change to freezing rain and sleet before becoming all snow again by the evening rush.
Thursday morning: the precipitation tapers to snow showers; the sun may even peek out later in the day. Temperatures behind this storm will be significantly colder, with highs only in the mid 20s.
Next chances for frozen precipitation: Sunday 2/6 - Monday 2/7; and Friday 2/11 - Saturday 2/12. Yes, I am serious.
Potentials for school scheduling disruptions: I'm holding off on providing percentages just yet, but I think a cancellation Wednesday and a delay Thursday are the most plausible scenarios.
Stay tuned for updates!
Midweek storm: the aftermath and looking ahead...
First, the storm that dumped all kinds of snow on us, reminding us of the difference in weight between a shovelful of powder and a shovelful of wet snow. I received reports of thundersnow and lightning in Lindenwold, Newtown, Phoenixville and Center City Philadelphia; snowfall rates of nearly 2" per hour throughout southwest Jersey, Bucks and Montgomery Counties; and near-whiteout conditions in New Castle, the Philadelphia suburbs north and west, and Havertown.
Total accumulations ranged from 7-8 inches in western Berks to 11-12 inches in southwest Berks; 12-16 inches in Bucks, Montgomery, and Chester Counties, as well as in the Illadelph. Parts of central and southern New Jersey got more than a foot and a half due to banding (concentrated areas of heavy snowfall).
Anywho, we now need to turn our attention to three more winter storms that will impact our area to varying degrees. Let me break it down like it's Hammer Time.
Little Clipper, Friday. (pronounced "Leetle Cleeper" a la the criminally underrated Nacho Libre in the sign-off of Ignacio's letter to Sister Encarnación: "Hug hug, kees kees, hug hug, beeg kees, leetle hug, kees kess, leetle keesss.")
Look for intermittent light snow anytime from the Friday morning commute through late afternoon. Accumulations will be an inch at most and will generally have little to no impact on travel, but use caution just in case.
Probability of delay Friday, 20% (due to refreezing of melted snow from Wednesday's storm along with panicking resulting from the light snowfall)
Little Clipper, Saturday. Right now it looks like this system will be even more moisture-starved, so accumulations will be held down to the "coating to a half-inch" range. Again, look for flurries and light snow showers anytime between roughly 11am and 8pm.
The potential Nor'easter / mess on Tuesday into Wednesday, according to the CMC forecast model.Nor'easter, Tuesday-Wednesday. This storm bears a lot of similarities to the one that just walloped us. Of course, track and temperature are of utmost importance in determining what kind of event we'll have to contend with, but right now it's looking like all snow and a decent amount of it. We're five days from this event, though, so a lot can happen in that period.
Stay tuned for further updates!
Monsoon's update: the juicy back-end
By about 4pm we'll be seeing light to moderate snow again in the Lancaster-Reading area. I expect the heaviest snow to fall between about 6pm and 10pm. Snow will taper after midnight and move out of here before daybreak Thursday.
Total accumulations: I expect to see 10-14 inches (including this morning's surprise hit); more in isolated areas.
Possibility of at least a delay on Thursday, 95% (there's going to be a lot to clean up, and we'll need those extra hours)
Possibility of cancellation Thursday, 75% (my confidence is growing on this for several reasons: 1. the untreated surfaces and back roads will be a mess after the shit-ton of snow we get tonight; 2. the temperature will be in the mid 20s throughout the morning, so anything that falls overnight will still be frozen in the morning; 3. it's a heavy, wet snow, and that may pull down branches and power lines--and maybe even roofs--around the area; and 4. administrators likely got an earful from angry parents for holding school at all today, turning around buses carrying little kids, which then skidded around the slippery roads for hours; needless to say, I think they're likely to err on the side of caution tomorrow)
Well, that's it. Anything else interesting comes up, I'll let you know. And remember to email me with reports of snow totals, thunder, or anything else of note...
Monsoon's update - the lull...
Most area districts are closing early this morning, perhaps realizing that, given the snowfall, they might have been better served keeping everyone at home. Dismissal times are generally in the 11am - 12:30pm range.
This timing is particularly advantageous, as the snowfall lull is now upon us. From about 11am to 2 or 3pm, we'll have little or no snowfall to contend with. This should allow those with early dismissals to get home safely--and allow those stuck in school for a full day to get home safely as well.
The "back end" cranks up in the late afternoon and overnight. I am still thinking we're in for 8-10 inches tonight (on top of the 3-4 inches from this morning). Most of us should expect a foot of accumulation. Snow tapers after midnight.
Updated delay/cancellation percentages for Thursday coming soon...
Be sure to email me with snow totals and observations!
Monsoon's in-storm update
It's already snowing, and rather steadily, as of 7:30. (Actually, it was snowing by 4 or 5am, so it's not entirely clear why school is being held at all.)
There's a large area of moisture over us right now, but we'll get a break by late morning, when the precipitation tapers to scattered snow and rain showers. For a few hours in the afternoon, there will be little or no precipitation at all. This "first phase" of the storm will accumulate 2-3 inches.
The snow will crank back up as the beastly "back end" of the storm moves through late this afternoon and this evening, into the overnight hours. Look for accumulations of 6-8 inches from this portion of the storm, raising totals in some places to near a foot.
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 85%
Chance of delay Thursday, 90%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 75%
Monsoon's thinking on the midweek storm - Tuesday afternoon
Alright...it's time to make my final call on snow totals, timing, and school scheduling disruptions (though I may tweak the numbers a bit later this afternoon and/or tonight as new model guidance comes in). Here goes:
Light snow begins to fall by 8 or 9am Wednesday, mixing with freezing drizzle and showers by the early afternoon. I don’t see enough warm air to give us “plain rain” for any extended amount of time. The overwhelming majority of the precipitation we receive with this storm will be frozen.
Precipitation changes back to snow by late afternoon (4 or 5pm) and continues, heavy at times, until tapering early Thursday morning (by 5 or 6am at the latest).
Morning/afternoon accumulation will be an inch or so. The rain will result in a treacherous glaze on sidewalks and secondary roads; slush on major thoroughfares.
The “back end” (Wednesday late afternoon and evening) accumulation is the real wild card here. Given the moisture in this storm, as well as its likely track and duration, expect accumulations of 8-10 inches in Reading/Berks, Lancaster County, and the Lehigh Valley. Roads will become treacherous very quickly during this heavy snow, so it’s an especially good idea to stay home Wednesday evening and night.
Probability of cancellation Wednesday, 60% (administrators may foresee a travel nightmare for the afternoon and seek to avoid that by putting the ixnay on the school day. oolschay ayday. whatever.)
Probability of early dismissal Wednesday, 80% (more likely is that the light snow will arrive too late to influence administrators; when it arrives and travel conditions deteriorate, they will call early dismissals for noon or 1pm.)
Probability of (at least) a delay Thursday, 90% (most of us will be waking up with well over half a foot of snow on Thursday morning; it will take a while to dig out and clean up.)
Probability of cancellation Thursday, 75% (possible lingering snow showers early Thursday morning, strong winds, and falling temperatures--as well as persistently treacherous road conditions and transportation problems--may prompt administrators to bag the day altogether.)
Monsoon's thinking on the midweek storm - Monday afternoon
The picture of this week's storm is coming into sharper focus the closer we get to the event.
A bit. The track has shifted a bit westward and the atmospheric temperatures look like they'll stay down a bit longer.
Here's what I think:
Light snow begins sometime after midnight Tuesday night and continues into early Wednesday morning, becoming steadier toward mid-morning. This snow will accumulate only an inch or two before mixing with, then changing into, freezing rain. The result will be a slushy--and sometimes slippery--mess.
Then it gets interesting.
The "back end" of the storm--when the system begins to pull away and the precipitation changes back to snow--is when we could see more significant accumulations. It will also be blustery and colder behind the system. We could see totals of 8-10 inches in central PA, Berks, and the Lehigh Valley.
Probability of a delay on Wednesday: 60%
Probability of cancellation on Wednesday: 75%
Probability of an early dismissal on Wednesday: 40%
Probability of a delay on Thursday: 55%
Probability of cancellation Thursday: 30%
I'm looking at February 3rd-4th for another chance for snow...but let's take it one storm at a time.
Stay tuned for updates (tonight, tomorrow) on this Nor'easter as they become necessary.
Monsoon's thinking on the midweek storm - Sunday afternoon
This is a tough one.
Forecasters--at least in this age of technological advances and fancy equipment--are always told that the models are to be used as tools, not taken as gospel. ("Models" here refer to the alphabet soup of forecasting models, or computer-generated projections of what the weather will do days and sometimes even weeks ahead.) And yet a lot of forecasters seem to be taking model agreement on storm track, on the absence of adequate phasing, and on air temperature, as if they were writ by Mother Nature herself in her little daily planner.
Nay nay, say I.
This is the WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting) model, showing the bulk of the moisture heading offshore. As noted above, I have reason to believe that this solution will change...
The model composites suggest the following: the Nor'easter will follow an Eastern track, thus providing us here in the Berks forecast area only a glancing blow. Moreover, the dearth of moisture and the lack of cold air will mean that much of the precipitation that does fall will be in the form of rain.
Lots of time looms between now and the onset of the storm, so my thinking (and therefore, my forecast) is subject to change--maybe several times. But for now, today, this afternoon, this is what I think is going to happen:
A small clipper system will pass to our north on Monday night into Tuesday, sparing us any snowfall at all. Meanwhile, the Nor'easter will be forming off the Carolina coast. I think the track will shift slightly westward, but enough of the cold Canadian air will remain in the area that there will be little to no mixing. And it will be really windy.
The snow arrives Wednesday morning, becoming intense throughout the day and evening, and tapering to flurries overnight into Thursday. Expect accumulations in the 6-8 inch range, school cancellations on Wednesday, and delays on Thursday.
Did I mention that this forecast is subject to change? Because it is.
Stay tuned.
Monsoon on next week's potential baaaaaad mother-(shut yo mouth)
Already following that strange little storm system overnight--which gave a delay to some, converting a half-day into a nearly full day--the streets are abuzz with talk of a monster storm next week. So here's my initial take and a heads-up...
Check out the closed low in the top image, and just look at all that moisture on the GFS. Keep in mind that these models are only forecasting tools, but if this comes to fruition...oooo-wee!It's a classic Nor'easter setting up, most likely arriving early Tuesday morning and ending by Wednesday evening. Right now it looks as though it'll snow heavily throughout that period--with strong winds blowing the snow slantways and greatly diminishing visibility.
The forecast models are blowing this into a major storm, but there are several factors (including storm track, warm air aloft, and the amount of moisture available) that could mix the snow with rain or give us just a glancing blow.
Here's what I think: due to a trough of cold air settling into the area, I think this'll be all snow, at least for us in the Berks region. I also think it'll be a slow-moving system that has the potential to churn away over our area for up to 36 hours. The damage: two feet of snow and at least two more snow days.
But hey - there are 3 1/2 days between now and then, and a lot can change in that space for the reasons mentioned above. I'll be able to give a more definitive forecast on Sunday and/or Monday. Until then, it might not be a bad idea to reassess your travel schedule for Tuesday and Wednesday...just in case.
It's a complicated storm, and no one understands it but Monsoo-oon
Daaaaaaamn right.
Monsoon's Forecast: Thursday night / Friday and beyond...
Alright, my good people...here's my forecast:
Clouds increase throughout the day ahead of a storm system approaching from the west. Snow develops by 10 or 11pm tonight and tapers by 9 or 10am Friday. Some breaks of sunshine Friday afternoon as frigid arctic air moves in, plunging temperatures into the low teens overnight Friday to Saturday.
I've been vacillating a bit in terms of accumulation with this storm due to conflicting information regarding phasing (pulling moisture from another system/source to create a bigger storm) and snow ratio (the snow to liquid equivalent, which varies depending on surface temperature, wind speed, and other factors). But it's time to make up my damn mind. And so:
I'm downgrading the accumulation slightly to 4-6 inches...a bit more in NE Pennsylvania and the Poconos than in our area.
Possibility of at least a delay Friday: 95%
Possibility of cancellation Friday: 75%
Saturday and Sunday will feature variable cloudiness (sunnier on Saturday) with daytime highs only about 20 and overnight lows of about 6. (6!) Expect below-zero wind chills, especially on a breezy Saturday night. Apart from the famously crude idiom referencing a "brass bra," my favorite cold-weather sayings are "it's cold enough to freeze the nuts off a brass monkey" and "colder than a penguin's bollocks." "Cold as a banker's heart" is a good one, too, though it's a bit too pointed, and I would imagine that bankers aren't too partial to that one. Around the hallways here, the most popular manner in which to express this level of frigidity is "it's cold as balls, yo." Eloquence, it would seem, takes many forms.
Anyway: cold.
Next good chance for accumulating snow is Monday night into Tuesday, and this could be a bit more significant (in the 8-12 inch range at first blush). But that's more than 4 days away, and a lot could happen between now and then...
After that, we could be in for some more snow on February 2nd and 3rd.
Stay tuned this evening for updates when and if they become necessary...
Update at 9:50pm - light snow has begun to fall in the area. This fast-moving storm has caused me to make a few adjustments to the forecast:
Snow ends by 6 or 7am Friday. Accumulations will be in the 3-5 inch range.
Possibility of at least a delay Friday: 80%
Possibility of cancellation Friday: 60%
Monsoon
Monsoon's Tuesday night update: what about the rest of the week?
Two winter weather-makers in our immediate future to worry about...let's get right into it.
A bit of freezing drizzle or light snow showers are likely to move through the area overnight and into the early morning Wednesday - before 8 or 9am. Expect only a coating to an inch of accumulation at most. It appears now that the temperatures will fall a couple of degrees below freezing over most of the forecast area in the overnight hours. As a result, the morning commute - perhaps involving icy patches and a bit of snow - could be a bit dicey. Temperatures rise well into the mid 30s on Wednesday afternoon and the sun will peek through before another precipitous decline into the low 20s overnight into Thursday.
Thursday will be colder with increasing clouds. Temperatures will get only to 30, and the low overnight into Friday will be 22.
A model projection for Friday's storm. Please note that the greens at the center of the precipiation map do not indicate rain, but heavier snow.A snow storm enters the area very late Thursday night (arriving between 11pm Thursday and 1am Friday) and continues through early Friday afternoon. Right now I'm seeing about 5-7 inches of accumulation (it's snow; no mixing here) from this storm, but I will fine-tune the forecast and send out updates as the situation warrants.
Saturday and Sunday will be frigid: highs in the low 20s, lows in the single digits, with a stiff breeze.
More snow is possible on Monday, 1/24 and Friday, 1/28 as well. No, seriously.
And now, my school schedule percentages...
Possibility of delay Wednesday 1/19: 35%
Possibility of cancellation Wednesday 1/19: 15%
Possibility of early dismissal Thursday 1/20: 20%
Possiblity of at least a delay Friday 1/21: 90%
Possibility of cancellation Friday 1/21: 80%
Stay tuned for updates / tweakage!
Monsoon's Forecast for the Monday-Tuesday Snow / Ice Event
Let's get right to it:
Monday will be very cold, with highs only in the mid 20s.
Flurries and light snow develop Monday night, perhaps by 7 or 8pm, but the bulk of the snow will fall during the overnight hours and perhaps even into the Tuesday morning commute. Look for an inch or two of accumulation before the precipitation changes over to freezing rain - perhaps as early as 5 or 6am, but definitely by 7 or 8am.
[Freezing rain is just regular old rain that freezes to surfaces. Sleet falls as frozen ice pellets; I think we'll have little to no sleet here...just snow to freezing rain.]
Freezing rain continues to the early afternoon hours, when the surface temperatures finally creep above the freezing mark. The extended period of freezing rain will likely lead to widespread icing of telephone lines, tree limbs, and sidewalks. It will also make for potentially treacherous driving on Tuesday.
In the full range of wintry precipitation, an ice storm is really much more dangerous than heavy snowfall. With that in mind...
Chance of at least a delay on Tuesday: 85%
Chance of a cancellation on Tuesday: 75%
I will post an update tomorrow night (Monday 1/17) if my thinking changes on any of this.
Further heads-up: I'm looking at a small event for Friday 1/21 and a potentially more significant event for Sunday 1/23 into Monday 1/24...
Tuesday morning update on the Tuesday / Wednesday storm
I'm keeping nearly everything in place from my previous blog entry of last night, but need to make an adjustment in the timing...
It now appears that light snow will begin to reach the ground by 5 or 6pm - perhaps even a touch earlier in some areas - but the steadier, more intense and accumulating snow will still hold off until 10pm or later. I'd say you should be OK to drive in these periods of light snow, but remember to use caution given the havoc barely more than a coating of snow caused on Friday and Saturday mornings.
School closing / delay percentages are the same: 10% Tuesday early dismissal; 95% Wednesday delay (at least); 70% Wednesday closing.
Here's a look at this system as it nears our area. Stay tuned for updates as the situation warrants...
Monday evening update on the Tuesday / Wednesday storm
My good people,
A few "tweaks" here, based on the latest model and radar information...
The snow doesn't start to reach the ground around here until later Tuesday - probably 6 or 7pm as light snow, intensifying by 10 or 11pm.
Snow tapers by 9 or 10am Wednesday with light snow showers possible into the mid-afternoon.
School Percentages:
Tuesday early dismissal, 10%
Wednesday delay, 95% (chance of at least a delay)
Wednesday cancellation, 70%
Travel:
You should be OK for travel throughout the Tuesday evening commute. Most treacherous time for driving is when the storm begins to intensify (overnight) and on Wednesday morning before the roads are treated / cleared.
Storm totals:
I'm sticking to my earlier amounts, with the additional comment that NYC and parts of New England will likely see a foot or more out of this storm, which will intensify after it passes our area...
