Overnight snow / sleet / rain event
My day began in the following manner:
The Hasselhoff head in question. Here it is pictured on the driver's side; I have since moved it to the passenger side because every time Mrs. Monsoon parked to my left in the driveway, she would be startled by the Hoff face staring at her, causing her to utter something like, "Gaaa! God damn it, it's Hasselhoff."I was stopped at the light at 5th and Washington Streets on my way to take The Bunk to day care (don't judge) and then go to work. I had just bade auf wiedersehen to my sweet wife, whose drive to work partially parallels mine.
[I pause here to remind you that my rear passenger side window is adorned with a life-size Hasselhoff head.]
A cab then pulled up alongside me to the right, and the driver rolled down his window, smiling broadly.
"That's the Hoff, huh?"
"You know it!"
"Aw, nice dog, there. [in Bunk's direction:] Mwah!"
"Hahaaauh. Thanks!"
And then he was gone. And my day was made.
So what can we expect from this storm tonight?
It's the Yeti crab, nicknamed the Hoff Crab by the crew who found it (on account of its evocation of Hasselhoff's hairy chest). It's found in the extreme southern Atlantic. Seriously. The Hoff Crab.Snow and sleet begin by 8 or 9 tonight, continuing and mixing overnight. The extent to which they mix (and the extent to which rain mixes in) depends on your location. In Berks County and points north and east, we're looking at a mostly snow and sleet event. In the immediate suburbs of Philadelphia and points south, it'll be mainly rain. Location will be important with this one.
During tomorrow morning's rush hour it'll still be sleety, but then it mixes with (then changes to) rain, ending by around noon.
Total accumulations of snow and sleet will be in the 1-3 inches range (and likely on the low end of that). Temperatures will hold fairly steady in the low to mid 30s, so we could see some deterioration in travel conditions for the early morning rush.
Probability of delay for Wednesday: 40%
Probability of cancellation for Wednesday: 15%
Stay tuned for updates as they become necessary this evening!
Milder than normal, then normal, then cold, then BC5.
Hi!
I have a forecast for you. If you have not yet done so, please go and "like" my Monsoon Martin facebook page. It's easy, and it's free, and it will help more people enjoy all of this splendor.
Monday 1/14 begins with fog, which will dissipate toward late morning. Temperatures will get into the mid 50s. Maybe a few peeks of sun in the afternoon, but otherwise, overcast and rainy late. We may see a bit of sleet mixed in, but I don’t see any real potential for winter weather. Breezy and turning cold later: low of 34.
Cloudy on Tuesday with a slight chance of snow showers, then rain showers. Generally free of precipitation. High 42, low 30.
David Hasselhoff, star of stage, screen, and song, rides a tiny motorbike.Wednesday will feature typical January grey, but some periods of sunshine are possible. High 45, low 28.
More of the same on Thursday: high 44, low 25.
Friday will be breezy and sunny with colder temperatures. High 38, low 22.
Next weekend will be overcast with seasonable temperatures. High both days in the low 40s; lows in the low 20s.
Next week begins with colder temperatures, then much colder temperatures. Snow showers (or possibly more) on Monday 1/21; highs in the mid 30s. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will only get into the mid 20s, with lows in the teens. We’ll see windy conditions—especially on Tuesday—sending us into BC5 territory for the first time this season. (Protect all your vulnerable bits!)
Next really good chance of snow is Wednesday 1/23 to Thursday 1/24.
We’re getting into a colder pattern here, folks. I know you’ve heard this before, but I shit you not, it’s going to be cold.
January ends cold—and possibly snowy, anywhere in the 1/30-2/1 window.
As always, stay tuned for updates!
I've got a short one for you.
Brief forecast, friends.
Temperatures will be above-normal for about the next 10 days, but the last half of January is colder and potentially snowy.
This week: Plenty of sunshine generally. Highs in the low 40s on Monday, rising to 50 by Thursday. Lows will be in the mid 20s to begin the week; around freezing by Thursday. Pretty windy on Wednesday. Friday looks rainy with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s.
This weekend: Overcast and mild with some showers likely on Saturday. Highs in the lower 50s, lows around 40.
Next week: Monday the 14th will be overcast, chilly, and rainy. High in the lower 40s. We'll see partly cloudy conditions and similar temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. The next really good chance of snow is Thursday the 17th into Friday the 18th. We'll see highs only in the mid 30s on each of those days.
Next weekend: An ice or snow storm is possible on Saturday the 19th. So that'll be fun! Sunday looks clearer and still cold, with highs in the mid 30s.
The rest of the month: Shit gets real. Highs below freezing, lows in the teens, BC4 conditions dominant. Major storm possible on the 24th or 25th.
Stay tuned for updates!
Search queries, CNN, balls-coldness, and January outlook: welcoming 2013!
New Year's revellers!
The end of the year (and a similar exercise on the excellent website Passive-Aggressive Notes) got me thinking about the search queries (on Google, Bing, and other engines) that led people to my weblog. I present some of the most interesting ones here, without comment. I have sprinkled throughout this post photos that were procured by plugging some of these phrases into the Google Images search engine. (And a special treat, right at the end, from last night's hilariously inappropriate New Year's Eve coverage on CNN.) Please to enjoy:
five guys
many are trapped for hours in darkness and confusion
will it snow on wednesday
eagle’s eye sweaters
rockford files firebird
burger grease paper
unsere freunde book
frere mosoon the wire
blue oyster cult snl
subliminal weed messages
forecastive
frosty pumpkin
hasselhoff berlin wall
monsoon sweatshop
hasselhoff monsoon
hasselhovian
hoffophilia treatment
shakespeare behind bars ksr
armani spade climax
five guys yum
And now, on to the weather.
What to expect in the first two weeks of January…
Tuesday 1/1/13 will be overcast with some afternoon flurries possible. Becoming much colder tonight. High 41, low 22.
Wednesday 1/2 will be, as promised, much colder. In fact, it will set new marks for the season on the balls-coldness meter (apologies to Trevor Wagner for stealing that term). The balls-coldness meter runs as follows:
- BC1 = temperatures of 35-40, with wind chills and other atmospheric conditions factored in. (For example, a temperature of 45 with moderate winds would result in wind chills within the BC1 range. A temperature of 36 with no wind would also fall within the BC1 range. Frozen or chilly precipitation can also cause the BC level to drop by a few degrees.)
- BC2 = temperatures/conditions/wind chills 25-35.
- BC3 = temperatures/conditions/wind chills 15-25.
- BC4 = temperatures/conditions/wind chills 0-15.
- BC5 = temperatures/conditions/wind chills below zero.
- The BC meter does go above BC5, but it's rather self-defeating. Once the temperature sinks under 20 degrees below zero, the testicles instinctively retreat up into the body cavity, rendering the BC scale obsolete. It's science.
So Wednesday will be mostly sunny with moderate winds. Highs below freezing and lows in the upper teens. That places us in the BC3 range.
Thursday will be partly cloudy with light winds, intensifying late. High 35, low 21. (BC2, falling to BC3 in the evening.)
Friday looks sunny and rather windy. High 34, low 21. BC3, falling to BC4 overnight.
Saturday will be similar, but with diminished winds. High 38, low 24. BC1-BC2.
Sunday is the same—in conditions, in temperatures, and in BC levels. So is Monday.
Tuesday 1/8 and Wednesday 1/9 will be a bit milder (highs in the mid 40s) with variable cloudiness and a slight chance of snow/rain. BC1 in the daytime, BC2 at night.
Sunny and windy on Thursday 1/10 with highs in the mid 40s and lows in the mid 20s. (Again, BC1 during the day, BC2 at night.)
Friday 1/11 looks cloudy with some rain showers possible. High 48, low 40. BC1, but BC2 in the evening and in the chilly rain.
Saturday and Sunday will be sunny and chillier. Highs in the upper 30s, lows in the lower 30s. BC1 in the day, BC2 at night.
Monday 1/14 and Tuesday 1/15 look potentially interesting. Temperatures will be in the 30s and some precipitation will be through, so we could see some snow or freezing rain out of this. I will keep an eye on this situation and update you.
Thereafter, it appears that temperatures will rise (highs in the upper 40s), then fall. The second half of January looks to be more precipitation-heavy than the first half of the month. I also expect us to hit BC5 by the end of January, so we have that to look forward to.
Stay tuned for updates, and happy 2013!
Windy today ... and more snow on Saturday?
Let's get right to it.
Partly sunny today and windy: sustained winds as high as high as 25mph with gusts as high as 40mph. High 34, but wind chills will be in the low 20s. Tonight will still be windy (but less so) and temperatures will drop to the mid 20s (with wind chills in the mid teens).
Friday looks partly sunny with increasing cloudiness late; high 38, low 26.
Saturday brings another storm. Snow begins around 7am and begins to taper by about 5pm, ending by about 9pm. Accumulations will be in the 2-4 inches range.
Sunday (and the ensuing 4 days or so) will bring the coldest weather we've seen so far this season. Highs around 33, lows in the upper teens. In fact, the entire first half of January is looking cold in this way.
Next really good chance of snow after this weekend is still January 9-10...
Super Grover 2.0, Boxing Day storm, and beyond...
My Yuletide Revellers,
We had the perfect little snow on Tuesday night: about 2 inches of wet stuff on Christmas Eve, which still clung to the bare branches on Christmas morning, but then melted almost completely away through the day.
The next little bit of weather we’re going to get over the next 36 hours… not so perfect.
But first, let me tell you about the best Christmas present ever.
Flying Super Grover 2.0. (Super Grover 2.0 was introduced in 2010 as an investigator, observer, and saver of the world. Motto: “He shows up.”) Here’s a primer if you’re curious.
My love for Grover is well-documented. And my dear sister-in-law, Marika, gifted me with the above-referenced item on this fine day.
Flying Super Grover 2.0 (hereafter referred to as FSG2) features a swiveling neck, movable arms, and a litany of utterances ranging from “Hello Everybodeeee” to “It is now time to unleash our powers of investigation!” But the coolest of his many features is that when you tilt FSG2 at an angle to make him “fly,” he cries, “Up, up, and away!” and then there are whooshing sounds and birdies and all sorts of sounds to simulate what he is hearing during his imaginary journey high above the earth. And FSG2 also sings a cool song, whose lyrics run:
I am furry and blue. I investigate, too.
I am strong and lean.
I am quick to the scene.
I can fly…
The song is jaunty, not wistful, as its lyrics (and the closing ellipses) would suggest.
So thanks, Marika! As you can see from the pictures herein, the gift delighted me and confounded The Bunk. In fact, it delighted me so much that I intend to write a letter to Sesame Street (in which I will express my age in months) pitching my idea for a major motion picture featuring FSG2. I will, of course, share this letter with you.
Something ... too much of this. The weather:
Tomorrow (Wednesday 12/26) will be miserable. Seriously, nasty.
Precipitation begins as snow by 8am, accumulating maybe an inch before mixing with and changing over to sleet (10am – noon), and then mixing with and changing over to rain (by early afternoon). Winds will pick up throughout the day, and will gust above 35mph by the evening. We may see some sleet mixing back in with the rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will be fairly steady in the mid 30s throughout the day and evening tomorrow, and wind chills will fall through the 20s.
Total precipitation from this system will be an inch and a half.
Potential hazards from this storm include road slickness (most treacherous roughly 8am-noon), urban and flash flooding, moderate wind damage, and widespread air travel delays in the Great Lakes region and along the eastern seaboard (places like Philadelphia, NYC, and Boston). Areas including extreme northern Pennsylvania and New Jersey could see 6-8 inches of snow accumulation out of this storm, and areas in central Pennsylvania and the Poconos could see 3-6 inches.
[Note: there are a lot of moving parts with this system, and a slight shift eastward or westward would be a dramatically different forecast in terms of precipitation type and winds. The forecast above is based, as always, on my best semi-educated guess.]
Thursday will be overcast and windy with clearing toward evening. High 40, low 26.
Friday looks sunnier and less windy with highs in the upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s.
Saturday brings another small storm that could deliver 2-3 inches of snowfall, especially toward evening. High 34, low 22.
Sunday will be clearing and brisk with highs around freezing and lows dipping into the lower 20s. And that’s what to expect for much of the following week, really (Monday 12/31/12 through Friday 1/4/13).
Next really good chance of snow is that January 9-10 action I mentioned before – still looking feasible and rather potent.
Stay tuned for updates…
Forecast update: the precipitation will begin by 10:30 as snow, accumulating 2-4 inches. Then changing over to sleet (4-5pm) and then rain (later), perhaps mixing back with sleet overnight. A lingering bit of rain/sleet tomorrow morning, then clearing. Becoming quite windy by later today. Travel will be most hazardous from noon to about 6pm, after which the roads should just be wet. But use caution if you need to travel, my friends. Monsoon - out.
Parade of Storms this week and beyond...
It's the night before the night before Christmas, and things are looking interesting for the coming week and beyond. Here's what to expect in the area...
Monday 12/24: A few snow showers in the afternoon; a coating to an inch of accumulation. Snow mixed with freezing rain tapering to drizzle/flurries overnight. Some places will wake up to a dusting on Christmas morning, which will be delightful. High 40, low 30.
Tuesday 12/25: Overcast with clearing skies late. High 42, low 28.
Wednesday 12/26: Snow, sleet, freezing rain to begin; mixing with, then changing to, rain. Temperatures holding steady in the mid to upper 30s.
Thursday 12/27: Overcast and windy with a few flurries in the morning and afternoon. High 38, low 26.
Friday 12/28: Mostly cloudy with persistent breezy conditions. High 39, low 25.
Saturday 12/29: Snowstorm possible. Highs in the mid 30s. Stay tuned for updates.
Sunday 12/30: Overcast and colder. High 35, low 25.
Monday 12/31: Overcast and still colder. High 33, low 17.
Tuesday 1/1/13: Super cold. High only in the upper 20s. Snowy, too, maybe--lasting into Wednesday the 2nd.
Beyond: Really cold. It's January, after all. Next good chance of a snowstorm is January 9th-10th.
As always, stay tuned for updates...and I hope you all have a safe and relaxing holiday season...
Will it snow Wednesday?
In a few words: it's not likely.
While we are seeing a pattern that is becoming both wetter and colder, I don't see the storm next week coming together in the right way to give us a snow event.
First, a major honor for stage, screen, and song legend David Hasselhoff. People Magazine's Sexiest Man Alive 2012? No, that title was inexplicably bestowed on wooden-acting douchecake Channing Tatum rather than The Hoff. Time Magazine's Person of the Year 2012? Nah. The readers' poll selected Kim Jong-Un for that distinction; the magazine's choice will be announced on December 19th, but is unlikely to honor the Hoff's immeasurable contributions to humanity. Past winners have included George W. Bush (twice!) and his daddy; Newt Gingrich; The Protestor; and even You.
Perhaps more importantly, Britons named the Christmas Consultant star as the person with whom they'd most like to have a Christmas photo taken.
(Apparently this poll was sponsored by Nikon, and Hasselhoff braved sub-freezing temperatures for a photo shoot that married Baywatch with Yuletide cheer--highlights of which I have sprinkled throughout this forecast.)
Here's what I think we can expect in the last two weeks of 2012:
Sunday 12/16: cloudy with a brief shower or two this afternoon; foggy tonight. High 54, low 42.
Monday 12/17: a foggy morning; then rainy, mostly in the afternoon and evening. High 52, low 44.
Tuesday 12/18: mostly cloudy and continued mild for this time of year. A shower or two early, then clearing and becoming quite windy. Temperatures dropping throughout the day. High 56, low 34.
Wednesday 12/19: partly to mostly cloudy; breezy and chilly. High 49, low 34.
Thursday 12/20: overcast with breezy conditions. Rain likely, especially later in the day. High 50, low 42.
Friday 12/21: sunny, super-windy, and colder. High of 42 will actually feel 10-15 degrees colder due to the wind. Low 29. (Note: if the world ends on this date, the above forecast is invalid--as are the ones below. I am 96.5% sure the world will not end on this date, however.)
Saturday 12/22: sunny and breezy. High 41, low 30.
Sunday 12/23: breezy and colder; partly cloudy. High 38, low 29.
Monday 12/24: continued cold; partly sunny. High 39, low 33.
Tuesday 12/25: varibly cloudy. Clouding up more as the day goes on. High 43, low 35.
Wednesday 12/26: overcast with rain showers, ending before temperatures drop below freezing. High 50, low 26.
Thursday 12/27: wintry mix to start, then becoming all rain. (Stay tuned for updates as this event becomes clearer.) High 43, low 31.
Friday 12/28: cloudy, chilly, breezy. High 42, low 30.
Saturday 12/29: cloudy, chilly, breezy. (Stop me if you've heard this before.) High 44, low 33.
Sunday 12/30: cloudy, milder, less breezy. High 49, low 34.
Monday 12/31: cloudy, a bit of rain. High 48, low 32.
Tuesday 1/1/13: cloudy and continued milder. High 50, low 36.
Thereafter: colder, with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the mid to upper 20s. Next chance of frozen precipitation comes in January 5th and 6th...
Snow Update: overnight freeze?
A week ago, I arrived at school (for an in-service day) to find the stairwell lined with streamers, balloons, and candid shots of me. As I reached the top of the stairs, a row of my colleagues/friends serenaded me by singing "Happy Birthday" whilst wearing David Hasselhoff masks.
These masks--each one, a life-sized head-shot of The Most Hoff fastened to a long wooden skewer--are works of genius. And I decided that I had to incorporate one into my everyday life. So I jammed one into the backseat driver's side window-crevice of my sweet hoopty. See below.
And so it is with this emblem of Hasselhovian magnificence that I make my way about town. And it is just this Hofftastic countenance that I credit with saving my life.
Over the break, I was driving along Perkiomen Avenue when I pulled up at a stoplight behind a car that held a driver and passenger, both of whom appeared to be texting. In fact, the driver's very last concern in the world seemed to be the operation of her vehicle.
It's relevant here to note that these two young women--as I realized later--had a rather rough look about them. They had the kind of hard look that seems to glare out at the world, just daring someone to mess with them.
But again, I didn't realize this until later.
The light turned green, and the car in front of me did not move. A few beats went by, and I sounded an alert with my horn that was intended to be friendly. You know, "Hey there! Hi. Not sure if you had noticed, but the light has changed! Alrighty..." rather than, "Move your ass!"
Apparently, they took it as the latter.
I had overtaken them at some point soon thereafter, and at the next two-lane opportunity, the rode my back bumper hard, then zoomed up alongside me--bent on revenge or mayhem. I think they intended to holler (not holla) at me, or run me off the road, or ram me. Or shoot me. Hoff knows what.
But just then, a funny thing happened: they began laughing merrily, and waved in the most amiable way.
They had seen The Face of The Hoff, and it had tamed them.
So it snowed most of the day, and if I had a nickel for every time a student asked me if we were going to get out early, I'd have my very own authentic K.I.T.T.
We got about what I thought - an inch or two in Berks. Graterford and Skippack picked up a bit over three inches. Elverson and some places in the Poconos were "sweet spots" with four and a half inches. Roads were a bit treacherous this morning--particularly secondary roads, which quickly became snow-covered. Not sure that a delay would have done us any good, and once we were in school, an early dismissal wouldn't have made much sense either.
Yes, this is David Hasselhoff dressed as Captain Hook, atop K.I.T.T. And yes, that is David Hasselhoff in the poster over his own right shoulder, photobombing himself. And yes, if you look closely, you can see the photographer in the glare on the hood--all of which makes this photo the perfect example of Hasselicious meta-promotion.Temperatures are expected to get well below freezing tonight (into the mid 20s around here), so the slushy wetness on the roads can freeze into black ice. This slipperyness may persist into early tomorrow morning, but by the time most of us are making our way to work, the sun should dry things out. As a result, I'm only predicting a 20% chance of delay on Wednesday 11/28.
Wednesday turns out mostly sunny but breezy and cold, with a high only in the upper 30s.
Becoming milder toward the weekend - Friday will get into the 40s; Saturday and Sunday will see highs into the mid 50s. Rain is possible on Sunday, and as well through much of new week.
Next really good chance of frozen precipitation for us in December 11th-12th, but that's two weeks away, so let's just relax.
It is a nipping and an eager air.
Horatio's observation came to mind this evening: the air seems much colder than the mid 30s and seems to portend wintry doom.
So what can we expect from this storm?
Temperatures are dropping rapidly, so most of what we'll see will be snow.
(Note: forecast area for this storm includes Lehigh Valley, Berks, Montco, Chester, Bucks, and central/north Jersey. Lancaster, Philly, south Jersey and Delaware will see more mixing and less snow.)
Light snow begins 2-3am and becomes steady for the morning commute. Snow will stick to roads, particularly as surface temperatures remain below freezing and the sun has yet to rise.
Snow mixes with (and briefly changes to) rain in the afternoon as temperatures rise above freezing, then ends as snow in the early evening. Steadiest period of snow will be roughly 6am-12noon. This is a fast-moving storm, so the it will ... well, it will move right on through.
Accumulations: an inch or two generally. We could see a bit more with banding, especially in the higher elevations. Indications are that some areas could see as much as 3-5 inches--but most places, just an inch or two. (Philly and the other areas mentioned get just a coating to an inch of slushy precipitation.)
Delays/cancellations: Considering the two or three (or much more, in Jersey) days we had off for Sandy, I don't see administrators burning a snow day for this pittance. Delay isn't out of the question, since the roads should be less treacherous after sunrise (a couple of minutes after 7am).
Chance of cancellation: 15%
Chance of delay: 35%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday: 10%
So there you have it.
Blown forecast. I've gotta do a better job.
Obviously, the storm did a heckuva job yesterday.
*ahem*
Stayed east when we thought it would come west. My hat's off to the Nor'easter for giving 110% and really switching it up on us.
*hep-hrrrm*
I mean, we did some nice things in there.
*mmmmmmgch*
The storm did dump snow in some areas, just not where we thought. Freehold had 13 inches, and parts of Connecticut got 8-10 inches.
*sighhhh-cough!*
But I said it was gonna give us some snow, and I take full responsibility for that. All we saw were a few squalls and some wind later on. And that's unacceptable. That's on me.
*claghhh*
Bottom line is, I've gotta do a better job. I've gotta put the forecast models in better positions.
*hack!*
This is fixable. A forecast here and a forecast there, and pretty soon we're back in it.
*ghghghghgm*
We're all in this together. A today we're all gonna be blown: winds will be in the 15-25mph range with gusts as high as 35mph. We'll know more about that tomorrow, since that is when we'll be able to look back and say, this is what happened. Because hindsight's 20/20, and we wanna play aggressive, emotional meteorology.
*mghaaaa*
Nicer weather is ahead. Sunny Friday with a high of 55. Sunny Saturday with a high of 62. Sunny Sunday with a high of 65. And mostly sunny on Monday with a high of 66. Next chance of rain is on Tuesday, so we'll see what happens with that. Thanksgiving week looks like a rainy mess, but we're not gonna get caught looking ahead.
*Hm-uhm...hm-uhm!*
Time's yours.
Nor'easter Snow Update - Wednesday, November 7th
Alright. So, it looks like snow now. Flurries in the morning, then starting in earnest by noon. Total accumulation 2-4 inches, mainly on grassy areas. This storm has a lot of moisture available to it, and evaporational cooling will produce a column of cold air, giving us more frozen precipitation than we anticipated.
It's wet snow, mixed at times with rain. Temperatures holding steady in the mid 30s; becoming windier throughout the day. Precipitation tapers by Thursday morning's commute.
Impacts: roads will just be wet, but we could see some slick spots overnight into Thursday morning. In heavier squalls, visibility will be reduced (mainly during the afternoon/evening commute tonight).
Accumulations could be higher in some areas where "banding" (a concentration of heavy precipitation) sets up.
Some widely scattered power outages due to fallen trees (already weakened by Sandy, then finished off with heavy, wet snow) and wind. Winds will increase to 25mph (sustained) with 35-40mph gusts later today.
I'm placing a 60% chance on early dismissal today, and a 30% chance of delayed start tomorrow.
Stay tuned for updates as necessary...
Midweek Nor'easter Update
The Nor'easter is tracking farther east (out to sea) which means a few things for us:
- It will still be windy, but the dangerously high winds (and the ones that could have wrought havoc on already hard-hit areas) will stay out to sea. Winds here will be 15-25mph with gusts of 30-35mph.
- The storm will be weaker, so the worst-case rain totals and flooding should not materialize.
- Only a quarter to two-fifths of an inch of rain will come our way, so the precipitation will be mostly light and intermittent.
- Some forecast models depict accumulating snow with this event, but due to a variety of factors (sun angle, surface temperature, ocean temps, etc.) any snow we see will be wet snow or a mixture, and will accumulate only on grasses. Accumulating snowfall only in higher elevations. Accumulating snow possible (2 to 4 inches) in central and northern NJ and northeast PA, especially on Wednesday evening. Most issues will be in New England.
- I don’t see travel problems (or school delays/closures) with this event.
Looking ahead...
High in the 50s on Saturday, 60s from Sunday through Tuesday. Partly to mostly sunny throughout, and no rain!
Tuesday 11/13 will have some rain, followed by colder temperatures - breezy with highs only in the 40s...
Midweek Nor'easter comes into sharper focus
The Nor'easter now appears as though it will affect our area, but we will escape the "worst case scenario" event involving extremely high winds and accumulating snow. Here's what I think...
Winds will start to increase on Wednesday morning, and by Wednesday afternoon they will be at 15-20mph (sustained) with 30mph gusts--nothing approaching what we dealt with in the Frankenstorm, but nothing to trifle with, either.
The Hoff reminds you to be sure and vote on November 6th (Democrats) and November 7th (Republicans)!Rain begins to overspread the area by early Wednesday afternoon, with the heaviest rain falling Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. It tapers by Thursday evening. (We could see a bit of wet snow mix in on Wednesday morning and Thursday morning, but it will not accumulate around here. Only higher elevations in the Poconos will see any accumulation.) Total rainfall amounts will be in the half-inch to inch-and-a-quarter range, so we will not see flooding. However, considering the leaning trees, weak roots, and waterlogged ground, even this relatively moderate rain and wind could cause problems.
Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be 45 and 48, respectively. On Friday, we'll actually see a bit of sunshine (!) and highs getting into the 50s. And Saturday and Sunday look fantastic - highs in the upper 50s/low 60s and plenty of sunshine.
Stay tuned for updates!
...are you ready for the next one?
That's what the checkout person at Home Depot said to me this evening after we had recounted our respective Hurricane Sandy woes. She was talking about the Nor'easter that, rumors says, will strike our area next week with heavy rain and wind--or, in some permutations, snow.
In short: I don't see it.
I mean, the storm is there, but it comes together too late (and too far out to sea) to affect us. Instead, it will likely hit New England with some snow.
The most likely scenario: the Nor'easter skirts our area (just giving us a bit of rain) and stays out to sea, then arrives in New England Wednesday into Thursday.One of the reasons people are latching on to this Nor'easter forecast is that the European model (the "Euro," one of the forecast models), which was one of the first to key in to Sandy's superstorm potential, is depicting a strong storm here. But there are many models--the GFS, NAM, UK, CMC, and others--and none of them can be regarded as a complete forecast. Meteorologists (even amateur ones like me) look at the computer models together with atmospheric trends, weather maps, data, and climatology.
So to sum up: there's a small chance this will hit us. But most indications are that it will miss us, and I feel confident in that forecast.
The weather, then...
Saturday 11/3 will be chilly and breezy with partly sunny skies. High 48, low 32.
Sunday 11/4 looks quite similar: clouds and sun with breezy conditions. High 47, low 30.
Monday 11/5 will be partly sunny and chilly with diminishing and clearing skies toward evening. High 48, low 29.
Tuesday 11/6 will be partly sunny, breezy and chilly (stop me if you've heard this before) with a high of 48 and a low of 31.
Wednesday 11/7 looks cloudy, breezy and chilly with rain. Not a nice day for outdoor activities. High 45, low 38.
Thursday 11/8 will be windy and chillier with partly sunny skies. High 45, low 28.
Friday 11/9 will be sunnier and a bit milder with diminishing winds. High 51, low 35.
Next weekend (the 10th and 11th) will be milder still with more sunshine and highs in the mid 50s.
The following week (beginning with the 12th) will start mild with rain, and end cold with possible snow and ice. (But that's two weeks away, so let's no worry just yet.)
In Hasselhovian news, The Hoff has been spotted recently filming a Dutch advertisement in Portugal, revealed on the television newsmagazine "Access Hollywood" that Carmen Electra was his favorite "Baywatch Babe," and is reportedly mulling a proposal to his Welsh girlfriend Hayley Roberts.
But the big Hasselhoff news is that Herr Fantastisch has deigned to do a Lifetime movie - it's called The Christmas Consultant and features Hoff in the title role as a holiday planner hired by a workaholic wife and mother (Caroline Rhea), but he ends up teaching the whole family important lessons about life and blah blah blah. The draw here is that David will be in full Hammelhoff mode (hamming it up and riffing on his Hoff persona in a self-referential meta-deconstruction worthy of Michel Foucault).
Tune in November 10th at 8pm on Lifetime.
Update on Sandy, Der Frankenstorm
Hey there,
A word about the unofficial name of this event, the Frankenstorm: it originated because the storm is a hybrid of a hurricane, a high pressure ridge, and a cold front, creating a hurricane-Nor'easter hybrid--just as Frankenstein's monster was a maudlin patchwork of humanity. And given that this storm is taking place a couple of days before Halloween, it was bound to resonate. And its Germanic tenor is gold.
(Some outlets like CNN and The Weather Channel have banned any reference to this event as the Frankenstorm, believing that the moniker trivializes a serious and potentially deadly situation. To these fuddy-duddys I say: Get a goddamned sense of humor, will ya?)
See that dark green area indicating who is likely to get EIGHT INCHES OR MORE of rain? And did you notice that we are in that dark green area? So yeah.So not much has changed regarding the forecast, but some of the timing and particulars have come into clearer focus. Specifically:
- We will see some rain from this system Sunday afternoon and evening, but the heavy, lashing rain and whipping winds won't arrive until overnight into early Monday morning.
- The entire days on Monday and Tuesday will be just unimaginably shitty. All day Monday and all day Tuesday we can expect sustained winds in the 35-45mph range with gusts reaching 60-70mph (especially on Tuesday). Rain and wind will begin to taper on Tuesday evening and overnight into Wednesday. We could still have a linger shower or three on Wednesday and it'll still be cloudy, but that's it.
- The most prominent hazards from this storm will be property damage from flying objects, long-term power outages, storm surges at and near the coasts, and significant flooding.
- The governor of New Jersey, the mayor of Philadelphia, and the Berks County Commissioners have declared states of emergency for their areas. Colleges have begun to cancel classes for Monday and Tuesday. I feel confident that our schools will be closed on Monday and Tuesday as well--and maybe beyond, depending on the power outage and downed-tree situations.
- Be sure to send me updates at monsoonmartin@gmail.com: storm damage, outages, mewling, and the like. And I'll be sure to send out updates about closures, track, and other particulars as needed (and as possible, depending on the power company).
Stay safe. And also: Hasselhoff.
A churning, lashing beast.
I've seen Hurricane Sandy called the Perfect Storm, a Frankenstorm, and Sandy Cane (?), but the above phrase provides a description that is more apt than wry.
The storm is coming, and it will hit us. Precise track and landfall will be determined by a variety of factors, but here is what I think is going to happen:
Sandy will make landfall in the Delmarva Peninsula/South Jersey area on Monday afternoon, but we will begin to see some rain from this system by Sunday afternoon, and some winds (10-20mph), but neither will be heavy.
Barometric pressures with this event could reach historic lows.
On Monday, the winds and rain get heavier, and by Monday evening (6-8pm) we'll see tropical storm conditions moving in to the area. (That means sustained winds in the 35-45mph range and gusts of 60-70mph, with heavy rain.) These conditions will persist into Tuesday night and perhaps even into Wednesday morning. Rain from Sandy will linger into Thursday.
A "Frequently Asked Questions" section follows.
What complications are likely to develop?
- High winds will lead to widespread damage (from fallen trees, branches and other projectiles) in the form of broken windows and the like
- Widespread power outages, most seriously on Monday into Tuesday, potentially lasting for several days or even a week - mostly due to fallen trees and high winds
- Storm surges of five or more feet - not only coastally, but 20-30 miles inland as well. It's a full moon Monday, so tides will be high to begin with
- Rainfall in the amount of 5-6 inches will lead to swollen waterways, wet basements, and widespread inland flooding
- Widespread flight delays or cancellations, as the storm will impact transportation hubs like D.C., NYC, and Philadelphia
Is this storm likely to cause school cancellations, delays, and the like?
- Yes. I foresee an early dismissal on Monday and closure Tuesday and Wednesday.
How should we prepare?
- Buy canned food and bottled water - things that will keep in unrefrigerated conditions.
- Make sure you have plenty of batteries on hand to power flashlights and radios.
- Bring in outdoor furniture, garden tools, toys, garbage cans, and landscape decorations, removing anything that could become a projectile in high winds.
- Don't drive through a water-covered road, as it's usually impossible to ascertain the depth of the water. After every storm of this nature, there's footage of some poor schmuck being rescued from floodwaters after he drove into a flooded section of roadway and his car stalled out. Don't be that schmuck.
- Watch out for tornadoes, as tropical storms can often produce them.
- During periods of extremely high winds, stay on the first floor and away from windows.
- Don't mess around with downed power lines and get yourself electrocuted.
- Don't try to cuddle a panda, no matter how cute it might look. Learned that one the hard way.
Stay tuned for updates this weekend as the storm comes into clearer focus...
Sandy: The Perfect Storm?
My good people,
You know that I spurn the hyperbolic alarmism of the major weather outlets (*cough* AccuWeather *cough* Hurricane Schwartz) as canards designed to drive up ratings and incite frenzied consumption of bread, milk, duct tape, bottled water, and bacon. (Gotta have bacon.)
But the system that is now Hurricane Sandy--churning through Jamaica right now, bearing down on Cuba, heading north toward the Bahamas by daybreak Thursday--is likely to deliver us dangerous, disruptive weather.
For reals.
Rather than bore you with talk of convection and trough depth and model solutions, I will simply note that there is disagreement in the meteorological community (and among forecast models) about the precise track Sandy will follow, which determines whether we get a direct hit or a glancing blow.
Here's what I think is the most likely development of this system:
Sandy makes landfall in the New Jersey-New York-Connecticut area on Monday afternoon. The result is damaging winds for people as far inland as central Pennsylvania, as well as major coastal and inland flooding. (There was some talk of snow with this system. Aside from extremely high elevations in the Appalachians, I don't see it. This is just heavy rain.)
So here's the forecast for the next 10 days or so, with updates forthcoming as I get a surer handle on Sandy:
Thursday 10/25: A foggy morning gives way to a partly sunny day. Still warmer than normal with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the upper 50s. Maybe a bit of drizzle/mist and fog late at night.
Friday 10/26: Scattered fog again, and again we'll see highs in the lower 70s--though clouds will dominate throughout the day. A cloudy night with lows in the mid 50s.
Saturday 10/27: Sun mixed with clouds and breezy. Highs in the upper 60s, lows in the lower 50s. Maybe a sprinkle or two during the day, but mostly dry.
Sunday 10/28: Noticeably cooler with highs only reaching the upper 50s. Breezy and overcast with showers possible during the day, then rain more likely at night. Lows in the mid 40s.
Monday 10/29: Rainy and windy and raw and foul. Temperatures holding steady in the low to mid 50s for much of the day and night.
Tuesday 10/30: Like Monday, but cooler. Still rainy and windy and nasty. Highs struggling to reach 50; lows in the upper 30s.
Gratuitous, inexplicable picture of David Hasselhoff.Wednesday 10/31: Rainy, again. Tapering toward evening. Windy. Highs around 50, lows in the upper 30s.
Thursday 11/1: Partly sunny and colder. Highs only in the mid 40s. Lows in the mid 30s. Still rather windy.
Friday 11/2: Partly cloudy with lingering breezes. Highs in the mid 40s, lows in the low 30s.
Saturday 11/3: Variable cloudiness. Highs in the low 50s, lows in the upper 30s.
Bottom line: Next week is going to be miserable, and possibly dangerous.
Feisty Pumpkin, good. Frosty Pumpkins, bad.
My most excellent good friends:
It has been many days since I last posted, many of them unpleasantly warm. Now it is autumn, but the next couple of days are actually going to feel more like early winter. Not to fear, though - we'll return to normal conditions for this time of year (highs in the mid 60s, lows in the mid 40s) soon enough...
Today will be chilly and breezy with plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 50s. I expect freeze warnings to be issued for much of the area for the overnight period. Temperatures will dip into the low 30s (freezing is 32, for the uninitiated) toward early Saturday morning. So bring in your mums and pumpkins; while everyone likes a feisty pumpkin, and a pumpkin pie with frosting is divine, a frosty pumpkin can ruin your weekend.
Saturday will be brilliantly sunny and continued rather cool with highs in the upper 50s, but overnight lows getting only into the upper 30s.
Sunday looks gorgeous with highs approaching (and in some places, exceeding) 70 but a nice fall breeze. Clouds will increase toward evening, but I don't think we'll see any showers until Monday. Low on Sunday night will be in the low 50s.
Monday morning: chance of a shower or two, but no big deal. Highs in the mid 70s, lows near 50.
Clouds mixed with sun on Tuesday with seasonable temperatures: highs in the mid 60s, lows in the mid 40s. The same holds for Wednesday and Thursday as well.
Friday could bring some showers, which may linger into the first part of the weekend. Speaking of which...
Next weekend looks decent, but fairly cloudy and cool. Highs just above 60 on Saturday, just below 60 on Sunday.
The following week (beginning with Monday 10/22) is when we're going to see some chilly, raw, and pluvious days. Highs will struggle to reach 50 most days that week, and there will be rain much of the time...
I see no chance of snow in the next month (and notwithstanding last year's freak October snowstorm, that is as it should be).
Keep it real. Always.
End of the school year forecast
It's the end of the school year. No farewell speeches that approach the depravity and--let's face it--brilliance of Ignacio Boondoggle's. Yet.
Tomorrow (Friday 5/18) is Imagine Day, and for the first time in recent memory, there is no threat of rain. In addition, the American Studies team over at Muhlenberg is taking students on a whirlwind day tour of Washington, D.C. on Sunday, during which the group will visit 14 museums, 19 memorials, and of course, the Hard Rock Café.
And folks are beginning to look toward the Memorial Day weekend for outdoor plans. For the first time, Mrs. Monsoon and I can visit the Adamstown Community Days carnival and then leave, rather than living across the street from it, breathing a nauseating mixture of generator fumes, funnel cake grease, and carnie sweat for several days.
So here is the forecast.
Friday 5/18: really, really nice and sunny. Temperatures will be in the low 70s with brilliant sunshine, low humidity, and very light breezes for the duration of our time outside (roughly noon to 3pm). High Friday will be 75, low will be 44.
Saturday 5/19: expect a high of 82 and a low of 55. Plenty of sunshine and a bit warmer than Friday.
Sunday 5/20: sunny to start; increasing cloudiness throughout the day, but no threat of precipitation until Monday. High 79, low 58.
The Washington, D.C. trip will be spending the entire day in the nation's capital, so here's what to expect:
- 9am, 66 degrees and partly cloudy with a very light northwesterly breeze.
- 11am, 72 degrees and the same conditions as 9am.
- 1pm, 76 degrees and the same conditions as 9am.
- 3pm, 78 degrees and increasing cloudiness, as breezes shift, coming from the northeast.
- 5pm, 79 degrees and same conditions as 3pm.
- 7pm, 75 degrees and same conditions as 3pm.
- 9pm, 70 degrees and a very small chance of a passing shower.
Monday 5/21: clouds predominate; chance of a thunderstorm, especially in the afternoon, with a high of 76. Clouds persist in the overnight hours, with a low of 59.
Tuesday 5/22: very similar to Monday; thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, then an added chance of showers in the evening. The high reaches 78, the low reaches 57.
Little-known Monsoon fact: we have a turtle living with us. His name is Chester, he is a red-eared slider, and he looks like this. He's been a part of our family for 16 years!Wednesday 5/23: clouds mixed with sun; early showers. High 77, low 57. (Happy World Turtle Day!)
Thursday 5/24: partly sunny and breezy as tumultuous weather gives way to settled high pressure. High 74, low 52.
Friday 5/25: for the unofficial kickoff to Memorial Day weekend, expect a continuation of Thursday's weather: partly sunny and breezy with highs in the mid 70s.
Saturday 5/26: partly cloudy and quite a bit warmer to start. High 85. Rain, I'm afraid, will move in--especially in the evening and overnight. Low 66.
Sunday 5/27: sunny and very warm, with increased humidity. High 91. (We may even challenge the record of 93 set in 1914.) Low 68.
Monday 5/28: sunny and continued warm, but with breezes and decreased humidity mitigating the heat. High 89, low 61.
Tuesday 5/29: sunny, breezy, and seasonably warm. High 81, low 55.
Wednesday 5/30: sunny and splendiferous. High 76, low 52.
Thursday 5/31: sunny and enchantingly gorgeous weather. High 74, low 50.
June: begins seasonably warmish (highs in the low to mid 80s) then we'll see record-challenging heat by mid-month.