Temperatures below normal. No blizzard. Also, The Hoff with another bird.
Breezy and warmer this afternoon with highs in the upper 40s. We’ll see increasing winds (and clouds) toward evening. Could see a rain or show shower here and there, but nothing significant or accumulating.
Overcast and chilly Saturday with some showers and drizzle; some wet snow could mix in at times, but nothing to be concerned about. High 42, low 30.
Sunday will see highs in the low 40s; partly cloudy and breezy with increasing clouds and the chance for snow or rain developing toward midnight.
Rain and snow on Monday – mainly rain, as temperatures will hold steady in the upper 30s to low 40s.
(Note: it takes very little snow to make the roads slick, even when surface temperatures are mild and it’s just slush on the roadway. Use caution if it is—or has been—snowing, so keep an eye out from late Friday night through Monday afternoon.)
The Hoff screams "Get me outta here, K.I.T.T.!" at his pet white parrot. God, I wish the parrot's name was K.I.T.T. Or Mitch (his Baywatch character). Or Snapper (his character on The Young and the Restless)! Or Heinrich, or something appropriately German. Do you know what he actually named the bird? Simon Cowell. Tuesday looks cloudy, windy, and cool: highs in the low 40s, lows in the upper 20s.
Wednesday looks sunny, but colder and continued windy. Highs in the upper 30s will feel like the lower 30s. Lows in the upper 20s will feel like the lower 20s.
Thursday and Friday will be milder (expect a 3.5% rise in temperatures) with times of clouds and sun. Highs both days in the upper 40s; lows in the low to mid 30s.
Next weekend will be milder still (highs reaching into the 50s) with a bit of rain possible on Saturday the 23rd.
The following week looks rainy and cool. Highs only in the low to mid 40s.
We end March in the 50s and begin April in the 60s.
Warmer, colder. Blizzard next week.
Loyal weather-friends,
Well it sure felt like spring this weekend and today, as temperatures rose into the low 60s. But don’t put away those coats and hats just yet: big changes are in the forecast. For reals. I don’t think we’re going to see temperatures in the 60s again until April.
Rain develops later tonight (10-11) and intensifies overnight. Temperatures hold steady in the lower 50s right through late morning. Rain will be heavy at times, particularly late Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon, before tapering by late afternoon. Breezy, too.
As a cold front moves through, temperatures will plummet from an afternoon high in the mid 50s to a low early Wednesday morning in the mid 30s.
Overcast, chilly, and windy on Wednesday with a high in the upper 40s; overnight lows will dip into the upper 20s.
Thursday will be partly sunny, even windier, and even colder: highs in the low to mid 40s; lows in the low to mid 20s.
Friday looks sunnier with diminishing wind. High in the mid 40s, low in the low 30s.
The weekend looks partly sunny (Saturday) and partly cloudy (Sunday) with the chance of a few snow showers Saturday night. Highs will be in the mid 40s, lows in the low 30s.
Next week begins with a rainy Monday, followed by a snowy Tuesday. Seriously, several models are indicating a blizzard for our area on the 19th. Some of the material is compelling, but jeez… didn’t we just go careening down this road like giddy little schoolgirls, only to have our snow-day hopes dashed by a cruelly indifferent Mother Nature?
David Hasselhoff strangles a young Janet Jackson in 1985.[Sidetrack: When I fretted aloud about the forecast (and the fact that my entire faux-meteorological reputation was at stake) before the non-event last week, one of my colleagues said sympathetically, “I get it. This is your Super Bowl.” Well, my friends, if this was my Super Bowl, then I was Janet Jackson in the 2004 halftime show, haplessly scrambling to cover the exposed right boob of my forecasting ineptitude, which had been laid bare by a ruthless Justin Timberlake (aka Mother Nature). Perhaps the metaphor is a bit strained, perhaps it is inapt. But I think I’ve made my point.]
Where was I? Oh, this blizzard on Tuesday the 19th. I’m not making any public statements on this one yet.
Next week will end with chilly rain, too. Highs in the low to mid 40s, rainy on the 22nd and 23rd.
Warmer thereafter – ending the month in the 50s, starting April in the 60s. Expect rain and clouds, though.
Stay tuned for updates!
Midweek storm update - Tuesday noon
There's a lot of disagreement on this storm - some have us getting slammed with 8-12 inches of snow, some have us getting a coating to a couple of inches. Potential complicating factors like timing, mixing, borderliine surface temperatures, sun angle, and the formation of a "dry slot" (an precipitation-free area that forms inside a precipitation field) have made meteorologists reluctant to make a definitive forecast.
(Some in the meteorological community even speak of this as a "nowcasting" event - one for which all meteorologists can do is watch the storm as it happens and project what will happen next. What this really means is that they can't commit to a forecast, so they invented an oxymoronic term to deflect attention from this fact.)
So here is my best semi-educated guess:
Light snow develops around 7-9am Wednesday for our area, becoming steadier toward late morning. We will see the snow mixing with rain between 10 and 1, then becoming all rain for a time in the afternoon before changing back to all snow by 5 or 6pm Wednesday. The snow will continue through the evening, will taper a bit overnight, and will end just prior to the Thursday morning rush.
School closing meter:
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 60%
Chance of delay Wednesday: 15%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday: 35%
Chance of cancellation Thursday: 70%
Chance of delay Thursday: 80%
Accumulations:
Philadelphia and points south and east, 1-3 inches, lots of mixing
Northern and western suburbs of Philadelphia (much of Bucks, Montgomery, and Chester Counties), Reading, Allentown, 4-6 inches, a bit of early mixing; locally higher amounts
Lancaster, York, northern Maryland, moderate mixing, heavy snow, 6-10 inches
So that's my call as of noon. I will send out updates this afternoon and/or evening if my thinking changes...
Midweek storm update - Monday evening
This weekend's models took the storm south of our area, but today's models are trending a bit northward.
Bottom line: I like what I'm seeing. The storm is looking bigger, and heavier precipitation means more snow for us.
My call tonight is that snow begins early Wednesday morning (3-4am) and ends as light snow showers by early Thursday morning. There may be a bit of mixing (with rain) on Wednesday afternoon, but I expect the bulk of precipitation to fall as snow. I'm going with accumulations in the range of 6-8 inches in our area.
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 70%.
Chance of delay Wednesday: 20%.
Chance of cancellation Thursday: 40%.
Chance of delay Thursday: 70%.
Winds will be strong (25mph, with some gusts in the 30s) during this storm, with higher winds at the coasts, leading to coastal flooding and beach erosion. We could see some power outages in this area due to the winds and the heavy, wet snow on trees and power lines.
All of us here at monsoonmartin will be keeping a close eye on this storm. Stay tuned for updates as we fine-tune the forecast in terms of track, timing, and troubles (had to preserve the alliteration there)...
Midweek storm update - Sunday afternoon
My good people.
First, thanks to all who have liked my facebook page. 221 likes and counting!
Second, an update on the midweek storm:
The timing now looks like early Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. So if it hits us, we're in for snow days Wednesday and Thursday.
The latest model solutions have been showing a track just south of our area; that would mean that West Virginia, northern Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, D.C., and Baltimore would get the brunt of the snow. Philadelphia would get rain, maybe a few slushy inches. Allentown, Berks, and areas north would get almost nothing.
But changing one's forecast according to the vicissitudes of each model run (most of them come out every six hours) is disparaged in meteorological circles as "model hugging." In other words, one should make one's forecast based on all the available information, rather than using the models themselves as a de facto forecast. It's lazy, says the meteorological community. You're better than that.
My "gut" says that model runs (which are in some disagreement in terms of track) will come northward in the next 36 hours, so I'm going to stick to my original forecast (6-12 inches and high winds), with my "final call" forthcoming on Monday night.
Stay tuned for updates!
Monster storm likely next week--but do not panic
Well. Meteorological winter is over (it runs from the beginning of December through the end of February), so of course it’s time to talk about a snowstorm.
Screwy.
The timing will likely be late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.
Saturday 3/2: Periods of clouds and sun; breezy. High 42, low 28.
Sunday 3/3: Partly sunny, breezy and colder. High 38, low 25.
Monday 3/4: Partly sunny and breezy again. High 38, low 25.
Tuesday 3/5: Sun gives way to clouds; milder. Snow likely late. High 44, low 30.
These are captures from the CMC forecast model. The top image represents the air pressure: the closer together the little lines are, the lower the pressure is; the lower the pressure is, the more severe the weather is. Do you see how it looks like a bull's-eye right over us? The bottom image is the projected precipitation with this system. Notice that the "540 line" (the thick black line that indicates whether precipitation will fall as rain or snow) is south of us. So we're in the snow.Wednesday 3/6: Snow, rain, and wind. If this hits us, we’ll see near-blizzard conditions, widespread power outages, and more than a foot of snow. And, more than likely, school cancellations on both Wednesday and Thursday.
I’m not ready to make a definitive forecast yet, but I am leaning more strongly toward this is going to happen than toward I don’t see it.
The Hoff gives you both barrels of beefcake.It will melt for the most part by the weekend of the 9th and 10th, as both days will see brilliant sunshine and temperatures rising into the 50s.
I will be watching the forecast models closely this weekend, as well as how the system behaves as it impacts the Midwest on Sunday and Monday. It should come into clearer focus as we get into the window of 48-72 hours before the event, so that would be Sunday.
Stay tuned for updates, obs.
Friday - Saturday storm and beyond...
Complicated storm arrives tomorrow evening, but we will see mostly light rain and drizzle from it.
The Weather Channel is calling it "Winter Storm Q." You know how TWC decided to name winter storms this year? And they had Nemo and Luna, et al? Yeah, they apparently couldn't come up with a Q name. I mean, how difficult is it? Quincy, Quentin, Quadrant, Quail-face, Quim Brown? Sheesh.
Here's what to expect:
Friday begins with sunny skies, but clouds (and winds) will increase throughout the day. High will reach the upper 30s.
Drizzle starts around 8 or 9pm. We may see some slick surfaces, so use caution when driving, especially late Friday night. Early Saturday morning may see some slippy spots, too. However, I think for the most part, roads will just be wet with this event.
Saturday, mid-afternoon.Saturday will be rainy (showers and drizzle), cool (holding steady in the 30s) and a bit breezy. Tapering toward evening, then clearing skies.
Sunday looks sunny and breezy; high 40. Monday looks sunny; high 44.
[Once again, it looks as if upstate New York and much of New England will get slammed by this storm. Everyone south of New York City will see all (or mostly) rain.]
The next decent chances of wintry weather are Wednesday 2/27 and Friday 3/1, but even these are far from blockbusters.
Stay tuned for udpates!
Wintry mix early Tuesday; again Friday-Saturday?
Hi there!
Here's what to expect tomorrow:
Precipitation arrives by 7 or 8am on Tuesday. It will begin as a bit of ice and snow, but temperatures will rise quickly - into the mid 40s by afternoon. We could see some slick spots during the AM commute, but I think we see very few problems from this. Windy in the afternoon.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 20%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 5%
Sunny, breezy, and colder on Wednesday: high 34, low 19.
Continued breezy and increasingly cloudy on Thursday: high 36, low 24.
Friday looks interesting, with temperatures holding steady in the 30s throughout the day. We could see accumulating snow and travel delays from this one - particularly Friday evening into Saturday - but there are too many factors to make the call yet.
Stay tuned for updates!
Tomorrow's storm and weekend snow showers
Today will be mostly sunny and windy with a high in the mid 40s.
Tomorrow is when the precipitation comes. Rain begins around 2-3pm. Begins to mix with snow by 10pm, then change over to all snow by 1am. Snow tapers by 6am. Total accumulations 1-3 inches.
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 10%
Chance of delay Thursday, 30%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 15%
[insert Debbie Downer sound effect here]
Thursday turns out plenty sunny and breezy with a high in the low 40s.
Friday looks sunny and less windy with highs in the mid 40s.
The weekend will be colder and breezy with some flurries and show showers. No biggie. Highs in the mid 30s, lows in the low 20s.
A bit of rain to begin next week - but I see rain (and not snow) here. Colder by midweek with highs only around freezing.
Next good snow / ice chance I see is in the period from the 23rd to the 26th. I see a warming trend to end February and begin March.
Overnight icing potential, milder temperatures, and looking ahead...
We are in for some rain tomorrow, and it will get warmer. But there is the potential for freezing rain at the beginning. Here's what I see:
Rain begins overnight around 2 or 3am. Temperatures will hover around freezing during the morning commute, raising the possibility of compromised travel. I don't see it, though; the roads should be fine.
Chance of delay Monday: 30%
Chance of cancellation Monday: 10%
Temperatures will get up to the upper 40s on Monday. Rain tapers by 3-4pm.
Clouds mixed with sunshine on Tuesday; windy conditions. High 44, low 26.
The Hoff with a hawk. Why is he holding a hawk? Why is he wearing a tantalizingly unbuttoned, tasseled leather jacket? Why does a faint but dashing beard adorn his no-nonsense visage? Why the piercing, menacing glare? It is because it is.Mostly cloudy and breezy on Wednesday. High 43, low 28. Keeping an eye on the possibility for some snow overnight Wednesday into Thursday, but right now it doesn't look like much.
Thursday will be partly cloudy with light winds. High 44, low 30.
Plenty of sunshine on Friday. High 41, low 26.
The weekend looks overcast and windy with some flurries and snow showers around. (I don't see any accumulation or travel disruptions here.) Highs in the mid 30s; lows in the mid 20s.
Sunshine and milder conditions to begin next week - highs in the low to mid 40s, lows around 30. Warmer and rainy (just rain) by Thursday 2/21 and Friday 2/22. Warming trend thereafter.
So...is that it for winter, then? I think we'll have more to deal with.
Stay tuned for udpates...
7:45pm update: revised snow totals and percentages
Some fine-tuning:
I still see light snow beginning overnight, but temperatures will only rise into the mid-30s, so I think the snow will hang around a bit longer. Look for light snow lingering until 10 or 11am, then rain until about 3 or 4pm, then changing back to snow. In this later period of snow, Berks could see accumulations in the range of 3-6 inches. (Since it appears there will be a shorter period of rain in between the light snow and the heavier snow, the snow accumulations go up--as do our chances of having a snow day.)
Allentown gets mostly snow, accumulating 6-8 inches.
Mostly rain for Philadelphia. Could see 2-4 inches on the back end.
Lawrenceville, New Jersey looks like a rainier solution. 4-6 inches.
Nutley, New Jersey is looking like mostly snow, and a virtually guaranteed snow day. Accumulations in the range of 10-14 inches.
Still seeing historic amounts for Boston: 24 inches or more.
Back to Berks now: travel will become hazardous, starting around 4 or 5pm Friday and extending to late Saturday morning. High on Saturday will be 34 with strong winds and gradual clearing. Low Saturday night will be a frigid 15.
Revised percentages:
Chance of delay Friday, 20%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 60%
Chance of early dismissal Friday, 40%
Still looking like a delay is possible on Monday as well.
Stay tuned for updates!
The timing is pants.
For those unfamiliar with the term, "pants" is a British colloquialism meaning "not up to the task" or "not ideal" - as in, This storm looked right spiffing, but then the storm track went pear-shaped, and now I'm afraid it's pants.
[It looked great, but went wrong, and now it's awful.]
I'm stalling, obviously. This is a tricky forecast, and I feel like a lot is riding on it. I mean, not in a fate-of-the-free-world kind of way, but in a cementing-my-reputation-as-a-credible-forecaster kind of way.
Here it is, readers.
The forecast.
Light snow develops overnight – 11pm to 6am, on and off. Accumulations will be light: a coating to an inch at most. Precipitation will change to sleet, then plain rain, by about 7am.
Light rain is expected from 7 or 8am through late morning; thereafter, the rain will intensify throughout the afternoon. I see this period (comprising the entire school day) as rain for us, not snow.
Then we could get some “wraparound” snow. As the system leaves, we’ll see precipitation change back over to snow (maybe by 7 or 8pm) and taper overnight, ending before dawn Saturday. Winds will intensify Friday evening, reaching up to 25mph (sustained) with 35mph gusts overnight and throughout the day Saturday, diminishing by Saturday evening.
Accumulations from this “back end” of the storm will be in the range of 1-3 inches.
Philadelphia will see mostly rain – maybe an inch or two of snow on the back end.
Allentown will see more frozen precipitation and more sleet mixed in. Plain rain will fall only in the afternoon; accumulations will be in the 4-6 inches range.
Nutley, New Jersey will have a fairly mild day Friday dominated by rain, but will face higher winds (gusting into the upper 40s) and more prodigious accumulations on the back end (8-10 inches).
No, I will not stop saying “back end.”
Lawrenceville, New Jersey will see rain for most of the day Friday, switching over to snow by 8 or 9pm (with strong winds), producing back end snowfall of 3-5 inches.
Connecticut, northern New York, interior Massachusetts, and southern parts of New Hampshire and Vermont seem to be in the "bull's-eye" of this thing: these places could get 18-24 inches of snow (or even more) and will see blizzard conditions Friday night into Saturday.
Cancellation potentials for the immediate forecast area (Berks):
Chance of delay Friday, 15%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 30%
Chance of early dismissal Friday, 10%
The Sunday-to-Monday storm, which actually looks more promising (for us, at least) than this Nor'easter...I'm looking at a bit of snow and ice that could be fortuitous timing wise, arriving from late Sunday night into Monday morning, so a delay would make sense for Monday.
Stay tuned for updates...
Downgrade for tonight; upgrade for Friday?
Hasselhoff reads Hasselhoff.Last night's clipper looked robust on the radar as it came to east-southeast into Pennsylvania. An impressive area of moisture that promised to give us a nice couple of inches.
And then it got a shredded up in the mountains. (Essentially, the mountains act as a buffer, slowing down some clipper systems and pilfering their moisture.) On the radar, this looks like the ethereal disappearance of exhaled breath on a very cold day. It is very sad, particularly when one has expressed such confidence in a system's performance.
**sighhhh**
The percentages offered yesterday were unreasonably inflated. I have fired my statistician, my esthetician, and and my tactician. This type of half-assery is unacceptable around here.
The clipper that will come tonight and disappoint us all, currently over the Great Lakes.Tonight's clipper is even more moisture-starved that last night's. It will leave a coating to a half-inch at most across the area; some places may see nothing but a few flurries.
Chance of delay Wednesday: 30%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 10%
Wednesday will be seasonably cold (highs in the upper 30s) and quite windy, so expect wind chills in the 20s.
Thursday will be seasonably cold and less windy. Both Wednesday and Thursday will be fairly overcast.
Thursday night into Friday is looking interesting. Light snow develops overnight Thursday into Friday, mixing with ice and creating a travel mess for the morning commute. Precipitation changes over to plain rain by the afternoon. Timing and amounts are subject to change due to various factors, and there is a lot of data (and a lot of model runs) to evaluate between now and then. But I'm going to make a preliminary (subject to change) call for school disruptions.
Chance of delay Friday: 70%
Chance of cancellation Friday: 40%
Milder next week. Then maybe some President's Day action? Winter's not over yet...
Stay tuned for updates!
The Clipper Train!
Surprise delay for a couple of districts in Berks this morning (including mine!). There could be more of that on the way.
First, I should define the term "clipper":
An Alberta clipper is an area of low pressure that moves southeastwardly (from approximately Alberta, hence the name) and rather quickly. The second part of the name derives from the clipper ships which were the fastest sea-going vessels in the mid-1800s.
These systems typically produce light accumulations—a coating here, two inches there—and bring sharp drops in temperature. With clippers, it’s also common to see some areas get two to three inches, while others get a mere coating or nearly nothing.
That’s what gave some of us light accumulations on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. And a couple more clippers will move through on Monday night and Tuesday night. Clipper train! Choo choo!! Sorry.
Today will be sunny and breezy with increasing cloudiness toward afternoon. We’ll see light snow and flurries develop by late afternoon, with the period of steadiest precipitation from 8pm to 1am. Accumulations will range from a coating in some places to two inches in others. Highs in the upper 20s, lows in the lower 20s.
Chance of delay Tuesday: 65%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday: 20%
Tuesday will bring another clipper. Light snow develops around 8pm Tuesday, tapering by 5 or 6am. Accumulations will be in the 1-2 inch range. Highs just above freezing; lows in the mid-20s.
Chance of delay Wednesday: 75%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 35%
Clearing with times of clouds and sun on Wednesday and Thursday; highs in the upper 30s.
There’s a chance for snow and/or rain from Thursday night into Friday morning. I’m going to hold off on percentages until closer to the time. Stay tuned for updates as this system comes into clearer focus.
Milder next week, but we’re still looking at the potential for morning ice on Monday 2/11. Thereafter, I see a warming trend with highs in the 40s and 50s; no promising winter weather potentials…
It's just a little clipper...
…but it could be a travel nuisance on Saturday evening.
Here’s what to expect:
The Hoff in a pensive, morose moment. Zero Emmy nominations = travesty.Light to moderate snow develops by 4-5pm on Saturday. The period of steadiest snow will likely be from about 11pm to 2am, but whatever falls will be intermittent. That said, be careful if you’re heading out after dark on Saturday. It doesn’t take much in terms of accumulation or rate to produce a treacherous roadway. The snow tapers to light snow showers, ending by early Sunday afternoon. Total accumulations from this system will be a coating in some places to up to two inches in others. The system is quick-moving and moisture-starved, so don’t expect much.
The good news is that these winds—so strong you find yourself getting pissed off at them when you go outside—will diminish overnight tonight, and will be rather calm throughout the weekend. The temperature overnight will get down to a frigid 14.
Temperatures on Saturday will hold steady in the mid-20s. The high on Sunday will be 34; low will be 18.
Hasselhoff: the only thing that could improve the Puppy Bowl.Monday and Tuesday look overcast and still cold with highs just above freezing (32F) and lows in the lower 20s. (There’s another little clipper that moves through on Tuesday, but I don’t see anything impressive thus far. Just some light snow showers and flurries at best.)
Wednesday and Thursday will feature more sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Friday the 8th looks interesting: snow likely from mid-morning to early afternoon, then a bit of ice and freezing rain mixing in. Temperatures holding steady at or just below freezing.
Next weekend will see clearing with highs in the lower 40s and lows around 30.
Next week (beginning with Monday 2/11) looks mild and wet, with rain likely on Tuesday 2/12 and Wednesday 2/13. Highs will range from the mid-40s to mid-50s.
Aside from 2/8, I don’t really see much in the way of winter weather potential. That’s a bit distressing to me as an amateur meteorologist, but I’m hearing a lot of “I’m ready for spring” now that we’ve crossed into February…
Stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon's Monday night update: the vicissitudes this week; storm for the weekend?
Hi!
Just wanted to give you guys an update on the weather. Tomorrow morning (Tuesday 1/29) should not pose any travel problems, as temperatures will hold steady in the mid-30s (and certainly above freezing) overnight.
The Hasselhoff, featured as a young hunk of smoldering man-meat in a teen-mag pinup.Overcast on Tuesday with times of rain and drizzle. High in the mid 40s. (In fact, temperatures will be fairly steady in the mid-40s all day.)
Showers on Wednesday followed by steadier rain (and even a thunderstorm!) later in the afternoon into the evening. High 64. Becoming quite windy on Wednesday afternoon-evening as well.
Times of sun and clouds, windy and colder on Thursday with a high of 43 that will feel like the low 30s.
Friday will be colder still with a high of 30 and a low of 20. (It will feel like the teens, though gird your loins for BC3-4 conditions.)
Sometimes I wonder if the internet will ever run out of David Hasselhoff pictures. But you see, the internet was created to gather and disseminate David Hasselhoff images. (Little-known fact.) So the internet will never run out of David Hasselhoff images. Therefore, the world will never run out. And I will never run out. Saturday and Sunday look partly sunny with highs in the mid 30s. Some forecast models see a clipper system Saturday night into Sunday that could move through and give us 2-4 inches of accumulation.
(I have seen most of these systems sail north of us and/or suffer from moisture starvation, so it's not something I'm terribly alarmed about.)
Looking ahead, I see another clipper for the 5th-6th, and a potential Nor'easter for the 8th-9th.
Otherwise, not much is going on. Meteorological winter is two-thirds over and it's been pretty uneventful thus far.
As always, stay tuned for updates...
Monday's disruption potential (and beyond...)
We here at Monsoon's weather blog are following a developing system out of the midwest that could cause hazardous driving and disrupt schedules on Monday.
[Alright, the plurals there are pretentious. It should be "I am following..." since it's just me.]
Sunday will be mostly sunny with a high of about 34. Clouds will increase toward evening as the system in question approaches. Low 23.
Monday is a complicated mess. We've had very frigid air at the surface, and this system will bring in warmer air aloft. Which one wins out will determine what kind of precipitation we'll have. I'm leaning toward a colder solution (particularly for Berks and Lehigh), for a number of reasons. Here's what to expect:
Precipitation begins as light snow around 6am Monday, when temperatures will be in the mid-20s. Snow will accumulate a half-inch to an inch before changing over to sleet and freezing rain by 9 or 10am. Precipitation will change over to "plain rain" by noon or 1pm, as temperatures climb into the mid-30s, then hold steady there. The precipitation will be mainly light, and look out for misty periods (and even some fogginess) that will reduce visibility.
Rain and drizzle continues off and on through Tuesday afternoon.
There's not a whole lot of moisture associated with this system, but it doesn't take much to produce ice-stormy conditions.
Hazards: the aforementioned snow accumulation, along with up to a fifth of an inch of ice accretion, will make the roads dangerous. Hairiest travel will be from 7am to about 11am, but use caution all day.
Scheduling disruptions: I am predicting the following...
Delay Monday, 70%
Cancellation Monday, 45%
Early dismissal Monday, 10%
Milder on Tuesday with some lingering rain or drizzle, as stated. Temperatures rise into the low 50s.
Milder still on Wednesday with some rain likely--heavy at times, particularly late--and even the potential for a rare January thunderstorm! High climbing into the lower 60s.
Thursday sees the arrival of a strong cold front, which will bring heavy winds and much colder temperatures. High 38, low 21.
Friday will be much colder and still breezy. Maybe some flurries and snow showers. The high will only be 27. The low will be 16.
Next weekend will feature variably cloudy with highs in the upper 20s.
Next week looks milder to start (high of 40 on Monday), but I'm watching several potential snow-producers on February 5th, February 7th, and February 13th. (This is also the time of year for Nor'easters to really develop, and they often do so rapidly, so stay tuned.)
Friday = bust. Sadly.
My good people,
If I had a nickel for every colleague who has asked me today and yesterday whether we're still "on" for a snow day on Friday, I'd be a wealthy man indeed. Actually, they didn't so much ask as they pleaded, insisting on a day off with a desperation that bordered on mania. I would like nothing more than to confirm that we're headed for a snow day on Friday--a good, old-fashioned, snowing-when-we-wake-up, no-doubt-about-it, early-call, hunker-in snow day.
But no.
Here's what we'll have instead.
Wednesday night: Diminishing wind. Bitter cold. Low 9. BC4.
Thursday: Very cold and windy. Highs in the low to mid 20s, lows in the low teens. Wind chills in the single digits. BC4.
Friday: Really cold again. Light snow showers and flurries developing by late morning; light snow in the afternoon and evening (1pm to 10pm). Total accumulation 1-2 inches. High 25, low 17.
A word about school closing percentages: One of my distinguished peers--let's call him "Shat Flavis" to protect his identity--castigated me over my last percentage call of 40%. "Come on, man. Give us 5% or 90%," he bloviated, implying that my middle-ground call was safe, was a cop-out--was unmanly. I will not be goaded into impetuousity, however, by a diminutive volleyball coach. I am a grown man who enjoys certain fragranced soaps, has an inexplicable fixation on David Hasselhoff, and forecasts the weather reasonably. Recognize that shit.
So here are my predictions about closings:
Friday closure, 15%
Friday delay, 10%
Friday early dismissal, 30%
Saturday: Partly sunny, windy and cold. High in the mid 20s, with wind chills in the teens. BC4.
Sunday: High of about freezing, but it'll feel quite a bit milder than these frigid-assed days. BC2-3.
Next week: Getting milder. Highs in the 40s by Tuesday. Some precipitation by midweek, but that looks like rain at this point.
Next good chance of snow: Sunday 2/3 to Monday 2/4; Thursday 2/7 to Friday 2/8; Monday 2/11 to Tuesday 2/12. Of course, don't count on any of those. Meteorological winter is nearly two-thirds over, and we're running out of chances for good snow.
Stay tuned for updates!
Quick update: Monday night's clipper, Profound balls-coldness, and Friday snow?
Here's what to expect over the next week:
Monday 1/21: Overcast with a few light snow showers in the afternoon and evening. This clipper system is fairly moisture-starved, so I don't see more than a dusting to a quarter-inch from this. High 33, low 17. Breezy, especially at night, so we'll see wind chills at or below zero. BC4-5. Ouch.
Tuesday 1/22: Arctic air moves in, for reals. Breezy, too--especially early. Partly sunny. High 24, low 11. BC4-5 all damn day.
The flag of Uruguay. It is a happy, happy sun.Wednesday 1/23: The coldest day of the winter. High 20, low 8. A solid BC4 all day. Mainly cloudy with some breaks of sunshine.
Thursday 1/24: Cold, again. But a bit less so. High 26, low 15. It'll be like Uruguay in July, as the old saying goes. (It's not a saying at all. But it should be, since the two words rhyme, and I imagine it's soupily hot there all the time. Or maybe it's not where I think it is. Near the equator, right? Someone enlighten me.)
Friday 1/25: Snow and sleet are likely, from Thursday overnight into Friday evening. It's about 100 hours away, so my forecast can (and likely will) change between now and then. But for now, the most likely scenario is 4-6 inches of accumulation (mostly snow) and travel hazards. And, potentially, school closures. High 33, low 21.
The weekend: Plenty of sunshine, but cold. Highs in the mid 20s, lows in the mid teens. Windy as balls on Sunday too. (Question: should I devise a balls-windiness scale as well? A balls-hotness scale?)
Stay tuned for updates...
It's balls to the wall time!!
Astoundingly, the origin of the phrase cited above has nothing to do with the gonads, though most people who hear it assume it to be a testicular reference. In fact, it originates from aviation: the throttle handles have "balls" on top of them, so when a pilot pushes them to the wall, it's full speed ahead. (There is some disagreement as to its origin, with some positing that the phrase originates from submarining or even railroading. But all are in agreement that the phrase's derivation has nothing to do with the bollocks.)
So, the weather. It's going to get cold. (Well, colder.) Here's what to expect:
Becoming sunnier on Saturday with a windy afternoon. Temperatures will reach the mid 40s, but will feel more like the mid 30s. Same deal on Sunday, with a bit more wind.
Not literally true. But let's face it: it might as well be.A strong arctic blast moves in on Monday, bringing with it the chance of flurries and snow showers, though I don’t see the potential for measurable accumulation. High Monday 28, low 17. (Wind chills in the low 20s during the day and the low teens overnight. BC3, perhaps reaching BC4.)
Tuesday will be even colder—and brisk, too. High 24, low 15. Wind chills will be in the lower teens (daytime) and about zero (overnight). BC4, perhaps reaching BC5. When it’s BC5, when you say, “It’s cold as balls,” the words freeze into a solid block immediately after leaving your mouth. So don’t even bother.
Wednesday will be partly sunny, breezy and cold. High 26 (wind chill low teens), low 18 (wind chill upper single digits). BC3-4
Thursday looks partly sunny and less windily frigid. High 32, low 22. BC2 in general.
Overcast and quite windy on Friday with highs in the upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s. BC2.
Saturday 1/26/13 brings the next potential of wintry weather. Right now I’d say we’re in for a 6-8 inch snow accumulation, but I will provide updates next week as the event comes into clearer focus. Highs around freezing. BC3-4.
Sunday looks sunny, clear, and colder and strong winds. Highs in the mid 20s (wind chills in the low to mid teens) and lows in the mid teens (wind chills in the upper single digits). BC4.
The following week (January 28th to February 1st) looks promising if you’re starved for winter weather: snow and ice are possible Tuesday the 29th into Thursday the 31st. And maybe something on the following weekend (2/2 and 2/3).
Stay tuned for updates...