Monsoon's Snow No More? Forecast
Most places in the area have seen 70+ inches of snow this winter, shattering records, and nearly 50 inches in February alone. (Here in northern Lancaster County we had 46 inches in February.) So…uncle. That’s enough. Ready for the snow to leave us now.
The pattern ahead holds for continued wet weather, but there are signs the arctic air will lift and some milder conditions will move in. Yes, my good people: there is an actual, plausible chance that we may be finished with the snow insanity for winter 2010.
Monday 3/1 – partly to mostly sunny and quite windy, especially in the afternoon. A storm affects New England but not New York, New Jersey, or Pennsylvania. High in the low to mid 40s and low in the upper 20s.
Tuesday 3/2 – plenty of clouds with scattered rain showers in the afternoon and evening. High near 40 and low overnight of around 30. There may be some snow showers and flurries, amounting to no more than a coating. But look out for slick driving and walking surfaces Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday 3/3 – cloudy and breezy with snow showers likely. There is a large coastal storm moving up the coast, but it will miss us to the south. We’ll only see snow showers out of this. [If my thinking changes on this event—which would again mean accumulating snow if it hugs the coast and takes a more northward tack—I’ll let you know.] High in the mid 30s, low in the mid to upper 20s.
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 15%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 55%
Thursday 3/4 – cloudy and rather breezy with a few stray snow or rain showers possible; clearing and becoming colder later. High in the low 40s, low in the low 20s.
Friday 3/5 – plenty of sunshine with highs in the upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s.
The weekend – sunny and milder with highs in the mid 40s and lows just below freezing. (Note that Sunday is March 7th, the date of Lester Moyer’s Forty-Inch Snow Dump Phantasm.)
Next week – begins with cloudy conditions and highs reaching the upper 40s to near 50 (!). Some rain (all rain, only rain) is possible on Tuesday 3/9 and Wednesday 3/10. By the end of the week, look for seasonably cold temperatures: highs struggling to reach 40.
Next weekend – highs in the 30s, lows in the 20s: colder than normal temperatures, and perhaps some wintry precipitation.
Stay tuned…
Monsoon's Storm Recap and Look-Ahead
What a curious, maddening snowstorm: some areas got scarcely any accumulation, and others (in the places I figured would get hardest-hit) got more than two feet of snow.
I have to acknowledge some problems with my forecast, though: accumulating snow did not develop here until later Thursday night, whereas I thought it would begin accumulating and causing travel problems by early Thursday afternoon; and snow totals in most of the forecast area just didn’t reach even the adjusted 6-8 inch forecast.
Why did the storm fail to live up to my forecast? A few reasons…
- My forecast was flawed. I got all excited about the prospect of more heavy snowfall that I missed some indicators suggesting this might be lighter for us.
- The angle of the sun this time of year—combined with the lightness of precipitation for much of this long event—meant the snow just couldn’t accumulate on roadways for the most part.
- The low stalled farther north than I originally thought it might, so only the outermost bands of precipitation reached the Berks-Lancaster area. At times, some of these bands looked impressively heavy, but they frequently fell apart before they could do much damage here.
- The forecast models overplayed the ridge that would forestall the system and extend the heaviest snow into the area; again, I should have recognized this.
Snowfall totals at this point (around 6pm Friday evening) are about as widely varied as one finds from a single storm—a storm that, incidentally, continues to spiral its way northeastward, its outer bands of precipitation disintegrating throughout the area. Here are some samples:
Northern New Jersey, 18-26”
Northeastern Pennsylvania, up to 24” (and more in the Poconos)
Allentown and Bethlehem, 14-16”
Bucks County, more than 12” in some locations
Exton, 11”
King of Prussia, 8”
Southern Berks and most of Lancaster County saw 3-5” generally
[Your snow totals and anecdotal reports would be helpful in sorting out just who got what in the area.]
The winds lived up to their billing, howling through the night and morning and caused all sorts of problems; Mifflin had its second straight snow day, according to our Superintendent’s message, due to multiple road closures in the district. Lots of roads were (and some remain) closed due to drifting, especially in northern Berks County.
Winds will continue to die down, but watch for continued drifting, especially tonight.
Here’s what to expect in the coming days:
A few snow showers may linger into Saturday, but expect no additional accumulation.
There are two upcoming storms I have my eye on right now—the second of which having the best chance to affect our area.
First, a coastal storm will head up this way from Florida and potentially be drawn into the existing low, now heading for New England. Very likely this system will affect only New England (and not anything south of New York City), but it bears watching.
Then, a storm that’s now hammering California appears headed for the mid-Atlantic toward the middle of next week (March 3rd or 4th), but a lot remains to be seen regarding this system, including exact track and precipitation type (due to surface temperatures).
Then, I think, finally, mercifully, we’ll be finished with winter storms. By late next week, highs will be in the 40s; snow cover will continue melting and the ground will warm up. This all makes it more likely that any precipitation would be rain, or would melt on contact if frozen.
But given this screwy, snowy, once-in-a-lifetime winter, I’m not going to let my guard down (or put the shovels and scrapers away) until we start seeing 50- and 60-degree days!
Stay tuned…
Monsoon's In-Storm Update for 25 February 2010
Well.
Quite obviously, those of us who teach in Berks County had a snow day with no real accumulating snow. Flurries and light snow melted upon contact with paved surfaces, making them merely wet. This scenario was mainly due to the fact that this unusual storm did not hug the coast as tightly as many believed it would.
Here’s what to expect over the next 48 hours or so.
Winds will intensify this evening and tonight, and snow will become steadier and drier, accumulating rapidly on roadways and causing conditions to deteriorate. The result will be accumulation of 3-5 inches and some drifting over the forecast area by Friday morning. Temperatures tonight will dip into the mid-20s, and wind chills will be in the low single digits.
As I noted previously, watch for drifting, downed trees, power outages, and the like due to the wind.
(c) 2010 AccuWeather.com
Friday morning will still be quite snowy at times, and very windy. Both the snow and wind will begin to taper off by late afternoon Friday, though accumulating snow can linger into very early Saturday morning. Expect highs on Friday only a couple of degrees above freezing with winds chills in the teens and 20s.
We may even see a few snow showers on Saturday night and Sunday from this sprawling system.
Total accumulations for the forecast area from now through Saturday morning will be in the range of 6-8 inches generally. Locally higher amounts are still possible.
School scheduling potentials…
Friday delay 80%
Friday cancellation 75%
Monsoon's Snowstorm Update for 24 February 2010
My call on the storm is basically the same as what I put forth last night. Here’s my latest thinking, based on the most updated information…
I believe the heaviest snow will fall in eastern and northeastern Pennsylvania (Allentown, the Poconos, and Scranton), north Jersey, interior New York, and western Connecticut. Look for totals of 16 inches to two feet in these areas.
But we in the forecast area of Berks and northern Lancaster Counties will not be spared here. I’m going to stick with 8-12 inches, with the possibility of more in some places, depending on snow banding and storm track. We’ll still have howling winds; look for winds ramping up to 20-30mph tomorrow and gusts of 40-50mph.
Timing: snow begins sometime after midnight, and certainly (and crucially, for the sake of school scheduling changes) by the morning commute. We may see a bit of a slowdown (maybe even a break) on Thursday evening before a second wave of precipitation late Thursday night into Friday morning.
Bust potential (or the possibility that we could get little or nothing out of this system): moderate. There are definitely other scenarios that could play out here, but to discuss them in depth would amount to hedging. Not gonna do it.
When to minimize travel: all day Thursday, particularly in the evening when visibility is low; and Friday morning.
School scheduling potentials:
Thursday delay, 10% (it just doesn’t make sense)
Thursday cancellation, 80% (but I think it’ll be a morning cancellation—we won’t be so lucky as to get the call tonight)
Thursday early dismissal (if we’re here in the first place), 95%
Friday delay, 85% (it’s still going to be snowing Friday morning)
Friday cancellation, 60% (this storm might really produce a mess; another day of clean-up would really be prudent)
Lastly, I’d like to thank all of you for visiting the weblog and sharing it far and wide. You’ve made February my biggest month ever (by far) with several days still to go in the month, with more than 3,000 views and more than 1,200 unique users (or separate individuals visiting the site). Again, thanks!
Stay tuned for in-storm updates if anything changes…
Monsoon's End-of-the-Week Snowstorm Forecast: go get your bread and milk!
Tonight there is the chance of some leftover light snow showers as the system that gave us sleet last night and rain today moves away. I don’t see any accumulation or travel hazards for Berks or Lancaster.
The next storm is a coastal low that looks good to develop into a full-fledged Nor’easter. Light snow moves in late Wednesday night (i.e., after midnight) and intensifies by mid-morning Thursday, continuing into Thursday evening. Snow continues intermittently (and of varying intensity) through Friday morning. This will be a snow event; I do not believe the forecast area will see any mixing.
Complicating matters (and making conditions more dangerous) will be strong winds—potentially the most violent of the season. Look for sustained winds of 20-30mph and gusts well over 40mph, getting cranked up throughout the day on Thursday and continuing through Friday. Combined with a heavy, wet snowfall, we could see widespread drifting, downed power lines, and fallen tree limbs.
Forecasting amounts with this one is especially tricky, and models have been in quite a bit of disagreement about just what kind of track this goofy storm will take. (I call it goofy because it’s going to come up the east coast, head northeast out to sea where it’ll pick up all kinds of additional moisture, and then—because of strong Atlantic oscillation—make a west-southwesterly turn, running smack pow into us.)
I reserve the right to alter my predictions tomorrow and new data comes in, but for now I’m going to call 8-12 inches for Berks and northern Lancaster Counties. This could be a big, nasty storm that gets into the foot-plus territory we saw back at the beginning of the month, but I’m not ready to say that for sure yet. This is also the sort of storm that will have heavy “bands” of precipitation in some areas, but lesser amounts in others; for example, Shillington could get 14 inches while Robesonia only gets 6 inches and Morgantown gets two feet.
Potentials for school scheduling snafus…
Thursday delay, 20%
Thursday cancellation, 75%
Thursday early dismissal (if we have school), 90%
Friday delay, 85%
Friday cancellation, 60%
Stay tuned for updated information, including snow totals and school scheduling potentials!
Winter Weather Update: overnight, late-week, and beyond...
I suspected this was going to be a crazy week in terms of winter weather, and tonight's extended period of sleet mixed with snow is confirming that suspicion. I think we'll see a changeover to rain at some point overnight, but road conditions Tuesday morning may be somewhat slick. Watch for a few snow showers late Tuesday afternoon or evening, maybe giving us a coating of snow accumulation.
Tuesday delay, 65%
Tuesday cancellation, 35%
The next system is really interesting and quite unusual, for reasons I won't bore you with here. Some model solutions are pumping this up into a significant storm. Right now I'm going to go with 6-8 inches of snow accumulation for the forecast area, beginning late Wednesday night and wrapping up overnight Thursday into Friday. High winds on Thursday complicate matters. We could get a snow day out of this on Thursday, but let's don't get our short-hairs caught in a whipsaw just yet - a lot remains to be seen about how this storm develops, and updates will follow.
[The "short-hairs" phrase I used above is utterly meaningless and is not a real idiomatic expression - but it does sound like a folksy gem, doesn't it?]
Beyond all that mess, I've got my eye on the following upcoming winter weather events:
Snow showers on Saturday 2/27, producing no appreciable accumulation.
Passing snow showers on Tuesday 3/2, perhaps blossoming into a nuisance accumulation of an inch or two.
A more significant storm around Sunday 3/7 into Monday 3/8 with potential accumulations approaching a foot - but it's waaaaaay too early to set our horny toads hollerin' up Jasper Creek just yet.
[Another made-up idiom, as if I had to tell you that.]
Stay tuned!
Monsoon's Forecast Update for the Monday-Tuesday event and beyond...
The Monday-Tuesday event has come into sharper focus, so I thought I’d provide an update on that system as well as my thinking on the other winter weather that could affect our region over the next 10 days or so.
Snow and rain arrive by around noon Monday but will change over to all rain (intermittent showers) by Monday afternoon and into the evening. Rain is likely overnight into Tuesday morning, and if snow and ice mix in toward the morning commute, roads could get dicey. (I think plain old rain will predominate and roads will be fine.) There will likely be some rain showers lingering throughout the day on Tuesday, and even on Tuesday night we could see a bit of freezing rain and drizzle.
Adjusted school scheduling projections:
Monday delay, 10%
Monday cancellation, 20%
Monday early dismissal, 35%
Tuesday delay, 40%
Tuesday cancellation, 25%
Wednesday delay, 30%
Wednesday cancellation, 15%
Wednesday 2/24 brings a second event, when we could see snow developing by 8 or 9pm and continuing off and on into Thursday. This snowfall looks as though it will linger into Thursday night and potentially bring us several inches of accumulation. I will monitor this situation closely and provide updates (and cancellation/delay potentials) closer to the event.
There is the potential for passing snow showers and flurries anytime from Friday 2/26 through Sunday 2/28, but these will not be a factor in terms of accumulation or driving hazards.
Beyond that, it’s looking as though the heavy precipitation during the first week of March may coincide with milder temperatures, so the March 3rd-4th event may be all or mostly rain. Thereafter, temperatures plummet again and the pattern sets up for another possible storm.
Stay tuned…
Monsoon’s forecast for the Monday-Tuesday event, including discussion of the March 7th snow-fantasy
While we’re in this mid-February lull in terms of winter precipitation, I thought I’d offer my take on the next few potential winter weather events…
The period from Friday the 19th through Sunday the 21st looks partly cloudy and breezy with highs in the upper 30s to near 40 and a low in the lower 20s.
The Monday the 22nd to Tuesday the 23rd event is a difficult call because of conflicting information thus far regarding storm track and surface temperatures. My sense right now is that we’ll have intermittent snow beginning late Monday morning, mixing with sleet and rain in the afternoon, then intensifying overnight and ending Tuesday morning. Accumulations in the forecast area (central and southern Berks, northern Lancaster) should be light—in the 1-3 inch range. Temperatures stay in the low to mid 30s during the storm. Driving could get a bit dicey, particularly if there is a prolonged period of mixed precipitation.
Cancellation/delay projections:
Monday cancellation, 25%
Monday early dismissal, 55%
Monday delay, 10%
Tuesday delay, 65%
Tuesday cancellation, 15%
As this system comes into sharper focus this weekend, I will send out an update (including revised storm total projections as well as school cancellation and delay potentials).
Thursday the 25th brings the chance for some more snow – this time a bit more than what seems to be in store early in the week. Snow could last much of the day, cancelling schools and accumulating as much as 6-8 inches. Updates to follow.
From March 3rd to the 5th we’re looking at another event, this one a sprawling affair that could involve mixed precipitation and significant accumulation.
The most dominant rumor about upcoming snow has grown out of Reading-area almanac writer Lester Moyer’s notoriety due to a Reading Eagle article about his apparently successful prediction of the two early-February blizzards. The story goes that on March 7th, up to 40 inches of snow will fall; this amount will be compounded by widespread drifting and blowing snow. In Lester’s words, this is going to be “the granddaddy of ‘em all.”
Now, I don’t want to knock this eccentric, prodigiously-bearded local character. And I don’t want to ridicule his forecasting methods, which include studying the phases of the moon and relying heavily on his “gut.” After all, many folks rely on far more esoteric phenomena and deeply-held superstitions to guide their lives—and I’ll admit to the employment of instinct in creating my own forecasts.
But lunar phases and intuition alone cannot predict the weather—and in any case, while almanacs have shown a tolerable ability to see climatological trends, they’ve had a notoriously spotty record at pinpointing actual precipitation events.
It is true that Mr. Moyer did predict two early-February storms in his almanac. But it is also true that he predicted lower-than-normal snowfall for winter 2009-2010—a total of 18 to 20 inches of mostly nuisance snows.
Let me specifically address the 40-inch prediction. Given that snow ratios in March are typically 10:1 (10 inches of snow for every inch of rain, roughly), we’d need four inches of moisture to produce 40 inches of snow. That’s some biblical end-times type scheisse right there. It’s not likely to happen, in other words.
So far, I don’t see this monstrous storm in our future—though, as noted above, the first week of March is setting up favorably for wintry precipitation.
Stay tuned…
Monsoon's Forecast - Presidents Day storm and beyond...
So…do you want the good news first, or the bad news first?
If you’re an optimist, you’d like to get the bad news out of the way so you can focus on the good.
If you’re a realist, you want the good news first because you need to steel yourself for the bad, which you’re convinced will be much more bad than the good news is good.
If you’re a nihilist, nothing matters at all, so the concepts of “good” or “bad” news are meaningless.
If you’re a hedonist, you’re only interested in what can give you pleasure, and therefore you want to revel in the good news and utterly ignore the bad news.
If you’re a Zen Buddhist, you have worked to transcend the concepts of “good” and “bad,” and believe that all things just are; therefore, you welcome any and all pieces of news with equanimity.
If you’re a defeatist, you think there is no good news, so the above question is really just a cruel bait-and-switch.
I could go on. I suppose I’ll do it the old-fashioned way and present the “bad” news first:
We’re getting more snow. Here in the forecast region (Berks, Lancaster) we’ll see all snow from a system that will bring much more mixed precipitation to Philadelphia and areas south and east. Light snow arrives around mid-afternoon Monday and is heaviest later Monday night, then overnight into Tuesday. Snow will taper and end by late Tuesday morning. Some models are suggesting that the snow could linger into Tuesday afternoon, which is potentially a factor in school closings and delays.
For accumulation, I’m going with 4-6 inches in central and southern Berks, Lancaster County, and the north/west suburbs of Philadelphia. A bit more is possible in isolated areas, and especially north of Reading and in Allentown, where folks could see 8 to 10 inches. Wind will kick up on Tuesday afternoon and blustery conditions will be with us into Wednesday.
I know this is a minor to moderate storm in terms of accumulation, but this is falling on top of historic amounts from last week's blizzards, and some back roads are still snow-covered. These factors make this storm potentially something more than a mere nuisance.
Delay and cancellation percentages; most schools have off Monday (including Mifflin), but I'll include it here for those schools using it as a snow make-up day...
Monday cancellation, 10%
Monday early dismissal, 35%
Tuesday delay, 75%
Tuesday cancellation, 40%
On Wednesday 2/17 and for the remainder of the week, we’ll see partly sunny conditions with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the upper teens to low 20s.
Cloudy and milder for the weekend with highs in the upper 30s (and perhaps some snow flurries or showers on Sunday), but I think we’re going to miss the accumulating snow that seemed destined to drop more on us.
Next week looks cold to begin with highs struggling to reach the freezing mark, but high temperatures will rise into the upper 30s and perhaps low 40s (!) by week’s end.
A bit of a warm-up will welcome us into March.
Here’s the good news I promised: this may be our last accumulating snowfall of the season.
But…stay tuned for updates.
Monsoon's Snowbound In-Storm Observations
It’s still snowing heavily here in northern Lancaster County as of 4pm, and my very kind neighbor just made another pass with the snowblower.
We’ve got 16 inches of snow on the ground here and things won’t wrap up until at least 8 or 9pm. The low pressure looks to be stalling off the coast and prolonging the snowfall, so we may actually see widespread totals above 20 inches and even approaching two feet by the end of this event.
Other Pennsylvania storm totals as of mid-afternoon include Mohnton (16 inches), Lititz (17 inches), and Dover (20 inches). [Remember to send me your snow totals and I’ll share them on the weblog.]
Seasonal records for snowfall have been set all over the place. President Obama, who coined a new term (“Snowmageddon”) to describe this past weekend’s event, will have to come up with another one.
Conditions are bad out there, and will continue to deteriorate. Major highways (including 80, 81, 83, 78, and 76) have been closed due to poor road conditions and diminished visibility. The weight of the snow is a danger to those shoveling it; in addition there have been roof collapses and other structural damage reports in Delaware, where more than 50 inches of snow (!) have fallen in the past week.
Winds are also becoming a problem, with reports of 15-20mph winds and higher gusts in the immediate forecast area. Wind speed is expected to reach 20-25mph with gusts near 40mph throughout the evening—look for whiteout conditions, downed trees, and possible power outages.
As it stands, we’ve gotten a mind-boggling three feet of the stuff here in Adamstown since 2/5. Daaaaaamn…
Updated school cancellation/delay projections for tomorrow…
Chance of cancellation, Thursday 2/11/10: 85%.
Chance of delay, Thursday 2/11/10: 30%.
[When will we clean all this up? I don’t think two hours Thursday morning is going to cut it; a cancellation seems pretty likely.]
Wouldn’t it be nice if this storm marked the end of winter? I think even the most snow-rabid among us would admit to some fatigue with the stuff by now. (On a personal note, I love forecasting winter weather, especially with these big, dramatic storms and historic snow totals. But even I’m getting a little tired of this!)
And yet, there’s more.
Monday 2/15 to Tuesday 2/16: snow overnight Monday into Tuesday morning could disrupt school schedules and make travel treacherous once again. This is five days away so it’s difficult to make snowfall projections, but it appears this one will likely be in the range of 6-8 inches.
Saturday 2/20 to Sunday 2/21: another one is setting up for this period, but it is far too early to even take a stab at totals, etc.
No real warm-ups anytime soon, either—highs hovering around freezing for the foreseeable future—so these giant mounds will be with us for a while.
Stay tuned……
Monsoon's call for the Tuesday-Wednesday storm
The Tuesday-Wednesday system is looking impressive. Snow totals will not rival those of this past weekend, but they won't be terribly far behind. (Jeez – could we get a nice, moderate 4-6 inch snowstorm this winter?)
The storm (a bona fide Nor’easter) will actually hit us in two waves. Here’s what to expect. A reminder that timing and snowfall predictions are for Berks and northern Lancaster Counties unless otherwise specified.
Light snow arrives Tuesday by 5 or 6pm. A few inches will accumulate, then there’ll be a lull early Wednesday morning. School administrators should not be deceived by this break, however, into thinking that it’s all over with. Quite the contrary.
The second round of precipitation will crank up around morning rush Wednesday or a bit later and continue right through Wednesday evening rush. From this second round alone we could see 9 inches of accumulation. Snow tapers and ends by Wednesday evening.
The second "round" of the storm, right around midday Wednesday.
But here, my snow-besieged friends, is where it really gets fun. By mid-morning on Wednesday, the northwest winds will crank up, reaching their height (sustained winds in the 20-25mph range, gusting past 40mph) on Wednesday afternoon and evening. What these near-blizzard conditions portend for us is blowing, drifting, extremely poor visibility, and power outages—not to mention wind chills plunging into the lower teens—right when we’re trying to clean up this mess. This wind—plus the dumping of a foot of snow on top of the foot and a half most of us got just a few days ago—may extend delays and cancellations in Thursday.
Accumulation:
It's looking like 12-16 inches for Reading and northern Lancaster County. A bit more toward south-central Pennsylvania in places like Columbia and York—perhaps approaching 20 inches again! Less in north Jersey and the coasts (on the coasts, there could be a mix) and toward the Poconos—4 to 6 inches at most in these areas.
Cancellation/delay potentials:
|
Tuesday |
Early Dismissal 20% |
|
Wednesday |
Delay 25%; Cancellation 90% |
|
Thursday |
Delay 75%; Cancellation 55% |
Whew. Stay tuned, as always, for updates on this extraordinary winter weather!
Monsoon on midweek storm, delay and cancellation projections
Tonight will be extremely cold with lows getting down into the single digits, and temperatures will only be in the teens well through Monday morning rush, so all the meltage from today will be well frozen over. Use caution and see my cancellation/delay predictions below…
Here are some central and southeastern Pennsylvania weekend storm totals per readers:
|
Brookhaven |
26.5” |
|
Adamstown |
20” |
|
Littlestown |
26” |
|
Lancaster |
19” |
|
Kirkwood |
24” |
|
Douglassville |
18” |
|
Norristown |
23” |
|
Sinking Spring |
18” |
|
Nolde Forest |
22.5” |
|
Myerstown |
18” |
|
New Cumberland |
22” |
|
North Wales |
18” |
|
Shillington |
21” |
|
State College |
15” |
|
Upper Merion |
21” |
|
Temple |
11” |
Believe it or not, before we can even catch our collective breath from the walloping we took from the weekend blizzard, another system is poised to affect our area on Tuesday into Wednesday. Here’s the forecast…
Snow develops mid- to late-afternoon Tuesday, light at first. Intensifying by 8pm, then continuing overnight and into late Wednesday afternoon, tapering to scattered snow showers Wednesday evening. (The bulk of the snowfall is early Wednesday morning through early Wednesday afternoon, and watch for high winds on Wednesday as well.)
Though model guidance is not yet in agreement, my call is that we’ll see 8 to 10 inches out of this storm—maybe even a foot. On top of the snow totals from this weekend’s blizzard, that would be positively crippling.
Revised cancellation/delay predictions for the coming week:
Monday 2/8: Cancellation 60%; Delay 85%. (It’s just nasty out there, and lots of roads are still snow-covered. Many families in our districts are dealing with 1 ½ to 2 feet of snow will insufficient resources to deal with the onslaught. Even with the melting that happened today thanks to the brilliant sunshine, frigid temperatures overnight will cause “black ice” on even the clearest of surfaces.)
Tuesday 2/9: Cancellation 10%; Delay 15%; Early dismissal 25%. (The snow will not begin in earnest until Tuesday evening, so I don’t really see that an early dismissal will become necessary. Then again, I didn’t think we at Mifflin would get an early dismissal on Friday, either…)
Wednesday 2/10: Cancellation 85%; Delay 20%. (Unless the timing or storm track change dramatically, a delay just wouldn’t make sense. A cancellation, on the other hand, would.)
Thursday 2/11: Cancellation 40%; Delay 90%. (Wind and temperatures again in the teens overnight into Thursday could lead to a treacherous Thursday-morning commute.)
Friday 2/12: Cancellation 15%; Delay 20%. (It’ll still be cold, but temperatures may inch above freezing. It’s a relief, too, because otherwise Mifflin’s Act 80 full day on Friday would be disrupted…)
Stay tuned for updates/tweakage on this forecast.
Monsoon's Weekend Blizzard Debriefing; Look Ahead to Next Storm
Now that’s what I call a frickin’ snowstorm. My predictions were admittedly conservative, and it turned out that the projected totals were low by as many as six to eight inches in some places. And New York City didn’t get a damned thing.
But wow. Bunk has been traipsing and galumphing through shoulder-deep snow in the backyard and returning to the house with frosty little snow blossoms caked to his coat.
Snow totals, based on my own observations and unofficial reports around the region:
Allentown, extreme northern Berks, and points north, 8-12 inches
Northern Lancaster County, central and southern Berks, 18-20 inches
Philadelphia and immediate suburbs, DC, Baltimore, 24-26 inches; a bit more in some areas
Delaware, northern Maryland, extreme northern Virginia, and extreme southern Pennsylvania, well over 24 inches. Up to 30 inches have been reported in some areas, and there have even been measurements that exceed 2 ½ feet. Boggles the mind.
[Please email me with your storm totals and locations and I’ll post them on my next weblog entry.]
The view out my window toward the deck at 7:30 this morning, before the snow was even finished
Even though the snow has ended across the forecast area by mid-afternoon Saturday, ongoing problems from this storm will be continuing strong winds, which will result in drifting (we have a couple of two-foot drifts here at Monsoon Central), collapsed roofs, downed power lines, and fallen limbs, trees and shrubbery. The temperature will dip into the lower teens tonight, sending the accumulated snowfall into a deep freeze.
Sunday 2/7: partly sunny with moderate winds; high 29, low 11.
Monday 2/8: plenty of sunshine and cold; high 32, low 16.
Tuesday 2/9: cloudy with snow possible (discussed below); high 31, low 25.
Wednesday 2/10: cloudy with considerable winds and lingering snow possible (see below); high 28, low 19.
Thursday 2/11 and Friday 2/12: partly to mostly sunny and milder with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the upper teens.
Saturday 2/13: a bit of snow possible, but nothing like this monster.
A bit of a thaw may be in store by the 20th to the 22nd.
Most forecasters (including this one) have been paying little attention to the Tuesday-Wednesday event, having been preoccupied for some days with this blizzard. But on first blush, here’s my call: the snow begins Tuesday afternoon and continues intermittently through the evening and overnight. Some flurries or snow showers may linger into Wednesday. The snow will not be nearly as heavy as the event that just wrapped up, but I think it’ll leave 4 to 6 inches of accumulation in Berks and northern Lancaster Counties.
All of this—the blizzard, the drifting, the historic storm totals, and the midweek storm—make for a potentially shaky schedule this week. Here are my calls…
Monday 2/8: Cancellation 60%; Delay 80%. (I can see the buses trying to navigate some of the far reaches of my district, unplowed and heavily drifted, and it’s not pretty.)
Tuesday 2/9: Cancellation 30%; Delay 15%; Early Dismissal 40%.
Wednesday 2/10: Cancellation 55%; Delay 75%.
Thursday 2/11: Cancellation 10%; Delay 20%.
As always, stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon's Weekend Snow Update
Arrival looks like 2-3pm (and then it will be light, wet snow that will—since surface temps will be above freezing—melt on contact with the roadway). The real driving hazards will come in the evening when the temperature drops below freezing and black ice develops—and, of course, when the snow intensifies toward 7-8pm. Heaviest snow in our area will fall overnight, from about 12midnight to 4am. Snow is over by about 6 or 7pm Saturday evening.
Considering all that, I’m downgrading the chance of an early school dismissal for the Reading-Lancaster area to 25%. (If we were in Virginia or even Maryland, I think we’d be getting out early.)
A blizzard is defined by the National Weather Service as a storm sustained winds or frequent gusts of at least 35mph, resulting in drifting snow and less than a quarter-mile visibility for more than three hours. We’ll have winds of 15-20mph with gusts up to 30mph overnight and into Saturday morning, so that nearly qualifies. (Places closer to the shores will have actual blizzard conditions due to strong coastal winds.) Visibility will be a problem too.
Projected storm totals:
Delaware, Maryland, Baltimore-D.C. area…20-24 inches.
Philadelphia, southern Chester and Lancaster Counties, central Jersey… 14-18 inches.
Philadelphia’s northern and western suburbs, Reading and Berks, northern Lancaster County, York and Harrisburg…8-12 inches.
Allentown and northern New Jersey, as well as New York City…6 inches.
Poconos and extreme north Jersey…2-4 inches.
Totals may be higher in some spots due to “thundersnow” or heavy bands of precipitation in which 2-3 inches may fall in a single hours. And in any case, depth will be difficult to ascertain given the extensive drifting.
I will send storm updates this weekend as necessary…
Have fun and please—consider staying off the roads for tonight and much of tomorrow if you can. If you must drive, use the utmost caution.
Monsoon's Snowcast for Friday to Saturday
Monsoon’s SnowTable Deluxe
Berks – Lancaster, Friday 2/5/10 to Saturday 2/6/10
Stay tuned this evening or tomorrow morning for updates when and if they're needed...
|
STARTS |
Early afternoon Friday, light snow |
|
ENDS |
Heaviest snow overnight into Saturday morning; tapering by late afternoon Saturday |
|
RATE |
Light to moderate through 7pm Friday; heavy overnight; moderate Saturday morning & afternoon; light through rest of afternoon |
|
DRIVING |
Potentially slippery Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon; high winds and drifting will reduce visibility on Saturday & Saturday night. Even Sunday morning may be dicey after a refreeze. Bottom line: stay in |
|
MIX |
Maybe a bit at the coasts; for us, there should be no mixing. Expect heavy, wet snow |
|
AMOUNT |
Track has shifted a bit south, but we’ll still see significant accumulation here. The conservative call is 6-10 inches with a bit more possible in isolated areas |
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ELSEWHERE |
Philadelphia and points south—as well as Chester and southern Lancaster Counties, and places in northern Delaware and Maryland—can expect 14-18 inches of accumulation, and a bit more in isolated spots; central Pennsylvania and points north will receive a bit less than we will in Reading/Lancaster (maybe 4-6 inches) |
|
BUST |
“Bust potential” – the chance we could get little or no snow – is fairly low for this one, but a shift in storm track farther to the south could result in only 5-6 inches |
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AFTERMATH |
Drifting throughout Saturday and freezing overnight (temperatures will get into the teens) will make things potentially dicey. Temperatures won’t rise above freezing until late next week, so this won’t be going away anytime soon |
|
SCHOOL |
Early dismissal Friday: 40% Delay Monday: 30% |
|
NEXT ONE |
Tuesday night into Wednesday; not a huge storm, but timing could result in school closures |
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STAY TUNED |
For updates later today and Friday morning when and if my thinking changes |
Snow potential update: tonight and this weekend
I’ll get right into it.
Tuesday night to Wednesday morning storm: clouds develop throughout the day today; flurries and brief snow showers may appear as early as 5pm. The bulk of the precipitation from about 8 or 9pm tonight through about 5 or 6am tomorrow morning. The snow will generally be light and intermittent, so we shouldn’t expect huge accumulations here: a half-inch to an inch and a half. There may be a bit of slipperiness on the roads, but this is a wetter snow (falling onto a higher-temperature surface) than what we saw last Thursday morning, so many major roads should just be wet. Still, some back roads and untreated surfaces could be dicey.
Possibility of cancellation Wednesday: 10%
Possibility of delay Wednesday: 45%
Friday into Saturday storm: this thing has the potential to be big. A massive area of moisture is poised to affect the region on Friday evening into Saturday morning. A lot will depend on the storm track, but unlike the storm that just grazed Pennsylvania this past weekend, the track sets up somewhat more favorably for us. If it all falls right, we could be looking at a storm comparable in size to December 19th. I’ll keep an eye on it and send updates as this thing comes into clearer focus…
This massive area of moisture has the potential to affect our area with a significant winter storm on Friday into Saturday.
Monsoon's quick update re: February snow potential
Just a few words about the next couple of weeks and what they could bring in terms of wintry precipitation. After all, February is the snowiest month of the year in this area (though in some locales nearby, January edges it out). Here’s what to expect…
Tuesday 2/2 to Wednesday 2/3: I’m looking at a moisture-starved system winging by from Tuesday evening to the Wednesday morning rush hour. Overwhelming evidence suggests that we’ll see just intermittent snow showers and flurries, but there’s a chance we could get a couple inches. I’ll update if I develop any more certainty about what we’re in store for.
Friday 2/5 to Sunday 2/7: Another round of moisture comes through from the south and west late Friday night through Sunday afternoon. Right now, model guidance is scattered on the track and intensity of the snow we might see. My best educated guess is that we’ll see snow showers on Saturday and Sunday with low accumulations and driving hazards only on Saturday night. Some rain could mix in, particularly as temperatures rise on Sunday.
Sunday 2/14 to Monday 2/15: The middle of February has historically been an active period (think, especially, 2003), and it looks like this year will be no different. There are indications that we could see a blockbuster around this time.
Stay tuned for updates…and as always, thanks for reading!
Monsoon's Forecast and Weekend Storm Outlook
Whew! That was some storm on Sunday and Monday: more than an inch of rain fell in most places, and the wind wrought havoc, causing downed limbs and power outages all over the place. In the Susquehanna basin, where nearly two inches fell, flood warnings in nearby counties remain in effect until late Wednesday. If this had been snow, some places could have been looking at more than a foot.
Speaking of which…
It’s still 72 hours out from the weekend snow event, but if everything falls right, we could be in for significant snowfall. Here’s my preliminary call, to be updated later this week as more information comes in:
The low tonight will get down into the mid 20s with diminishing winds.
Wednesday will be cooler with plenty of sunshine; the high will struggle to reach 40. Low in the mid 20s.
On Thursday we’ll see similar conditions, but some clouds will move through in the afternoon and evening, which may be accompanied by a passing snow shower. No biggie. High 41, low 20.
Friday will be partly sunny and markedly colder to start; the high will reach only 29. If we do get snow, it will not begin until 5 or 6pm. Right now I’m looking at a period of heavy snow overnight Friday into Saturday afternoon, bookended on Friday evening and Saturday evening by flurries and light snow.
Snow ratios with this storm could be impressive, with the temperature in the teens during the bulk of the storm.
[In brief, snow ratio refers to the amount of liquid precipitation equivalent to the snowfall. For example, with a pretty typical snow ratio of 10:1, ten inches of snow would be produced from roughly one inch of liquid. A “wet” snow has a lower snow ratio; a “dry” or fluffy snow has a higher snow ratio. For this storm, ratios would be in the range of 15:1 or 20:1, and so far model runs suggest that between three-quarters of an inch and one inch of moisture will fall. So, as those of you who are math whizzes have already figured out: that’s in the range of 12 to 20 inches of snow.]
This is all very preliminary, and the models don’t all agree on this solution. The track could be farther south (and some indications suggest this could happen) and give us fairly little, instead whomping the Philadelphia region and points south. The system could fail to tap into sufficient moisture as expected and give us lighter stuff.
This moisture--which will be centered over Texas and Oklahoma on Thursday night--could give us a significant snowstorm on Friday night into Saturday.
Right now, it’s looking good for fairly heavy, visibility-reducing, plan-cancelling snow on Friday evening, overnight into Saturday afternoon. Best chance right now for us in Berks and northern Lancaster Counties is somewhere in the range of eight inches, maybe ten. (Obviously, given the projected timing, this wouldn't affect school schedules.) Stay tuned for updates!
Sunday Update: Heavy Rain
Just wanted to alert you (at least, those of you who check the site on a weekend) that some heavy rain and windy conditions are in store for us this evening.
Light rain should begin falling by mid-afternoon Sunday, with heavy, soaking rain to fall—more or less nonstop—from 5 or 6pm Sunday evening to mid-morning on Monday. The rain will then taper off through early afternoon.
Temperatures will actually rise overnight with this storm, from the 40s on Sunday evening to the 50s on Monday morning, so we have nothing to worry about in terms of any frozen precipitation.
Some places could get as much as two inches of rain out of this system, so flooding is a concern. We could even have a rumble of thunder or two on Monday morning!
Temperatures will fall a bit throughout the week, and our next best chance of snow is Thursday night into Friday. (Right now, this Thursday-to-Friday event is looking pretty minor, but it bears close watching. Stay tuned for updates.)
Toward next weekend, we’ll see a return to very cold conditions (highs struggling to reach freezing). Looking into February, the next decent chances of wintry precipitation are on the 2nd and the 6th.
Forecast: Thursday 1/21 - Friday 1/22 Event
People,
Here is my take on the Thursday night-Friday morning event…
The system is not all that well-organized and is not terribly moisture-laden. And there are some forecast models that suggest the system will actually pass to our south, giving us nary a damned thing. But hedge will I not. Here is what I think is going to happen:
Light snow showers develop sometime between 10pm and midnight. Snow showers become somewhat steadier overnight, accumulating perhaps as much as an inch.
Freezing rain and/or sleet mix in toward the morning commute—in the range of 3am to 9am—producing a very slippery half-inch coating of ice on top of the already-fallen snow.
[Quick weather review: freezing rain starts as snow in the upper atmosphere, then melts to liquid form in warmer air closer to the ground. It hits the ground as rain, but when the surface temperature is below 32 degrees, it freezes to the surface, creating a dangerous sheet of ice. On the other hand, sleet also starts as snow in the upper atmosphere, then melts to liquid form, but then refreezes before hitting the ground as ice pellets. Good rule of thumb: if you see it bouncing off the ground, it’s sleet; if it looks like rain but is creating a glazy coating on the ground, it’s freezing rain. They both suck for drivers, but freezing rain tends to be the more dangerous of the two.]
Temperatures will not get above freezing until toward noon, with a high getting to just the mid 30s in the afternoon. Expect tapering precipitation—rain, mixed with a few flurries and snow showers—ending through the afternoon.
We’re in the clear as temperatures get milder on Saturday. Then on Sunday, temperatures will rise into the upper 40s and some heavy rain moves through Sunday evening into Monday. Since the mercury will stay well above freezing, even overnight, this will not cause any driving headaches (other than from those people who seem to have an instantaneous loss of their faculties when driving in the rain), and it will cause no delays or cancellations.
…which brings me to the predictions for Friday.
Chance of school cancellation Friday: 40%
Chance of school delay Friday: 75%
Predictions are subject to change. If my forecast evolves into something significantly different from what appears above (either in time of arrival, or in precipitation types, or in delay chances), I will send out an update.