Midweek storm: the aftermath and looking ahead...
First, the storm that dumped all kinds of snow on us, reminding us of the difference in weight between a shovelful of powder and a shovelful of wet snow. I received reports of thundersnow and lightning in Lindenwold, Newtown, Phoenixville and Center City Philadelphia; snowfall rates of nearly 2" per hour throughout southwest Jersey, Bucks and Montgomery Counties; and near-whiteout conditions in New Castle, the Philadelphia suburbs north and west, and Havertown.
Total accumulations ranged from 7-8 inches in western Berks to 11-12 inches in southwest Berks; 12-16 inches in Bucks, Montgomery, and Chester Counties, as well as in the Illadelph. Parts of central and southern New Jersey got more than a foot and a half due to banding (concentrated areas of heavy snowfall).
Anywho, we now need to turn our attention to three more winter storms that will impact our area to varying degrees. Let me break it down like it's Hammer Time.
Little Clipper, Friday. (pronounced "Leetle Cleeper" a la the criminally underrated Nacho Libre in the sign-off of Ignacio's letter to Sister Encarnación: "Hug hug, kees kees, hug hug, beeg kees, leetle hug, kees kess, leetle keesss.")
Look for intermittent light snow anytime from the Friday morning commute through late afternoon. Accumulations will be an inch at most and will generally have little to no impact on travel, but use caution just in case.
Probability of delay Friday, 20% (due to refreezing of melted snow from Wednesday's storm along with panicking resulting from the light snowfall)
Little Clipper, Saturday. Right now it looks like this system will be even more moisture-starved, so accumulations will be held down to the "coating to a half-inch" range. Again, look for flurries and light snow showers anytime between roughly 11am and 8pm.
The potential Nor'easter / mess on Tuesday into Wednesday, according to the CMC forecast model.Nor'easter, Tuesday-Wednesday. This storm bears a lot of similarities to the one that just walloped us. Of course, track and temperature are of utmost importance in determining what kind of event we'll have to contend with, but right now it's looking like all snow and a decent amount of it. We're five days from this event, though, so a lot can happen in that period.
Stay tuned for further updates!
Monsoon's update: the juicy back-end
By about 4pm we'll be seeing light to moderate snow again in the Lancaster-Reading area. I expect the heaviest snow to fall between about 6pm and 10pm. Snow will taper after midnight and move out of here before daybreak Thursday.
Total accumulations: I expect to see 10-14 inches (including this morning's surprise hit); more in isolated areas.
Possibility of at least a delay on Thursday, 95% (there's going to be a lot to clean up, and we'll need those extra hours)
Possibility of cancellation Thursday, 75% (my confidence is growing on this for several reasons: 1. the untreated surfaces and back roads will be a mess after the shit-ton of snow we get tonight; 2. the temperature will be in the mid 20s throughout the morning, so anything that falls overnight will still be frozen in the morning; 3. it's a heavy, wet snow, and that may pull down branches and power lines--and maybe even roofs--around the area; and 4. administrators likely got an earful from angry parents for holding school at all today, turning around buses carrying little kids, which then skidded around the slippery roads for hours; needless to say, I think they're likely to err on the side of caution tomorrow)
Well, that's it. Anything else interesting comes up, I'll let you know. And remember to email me with reports of snow totals, thunder, or anything else of note...
Monsoon's update - the lull...
Most area districts are closing early this morning, perhaps realizing that, given the snowfall, they might have been better served keeping everyone at home. Dismissal times are generally in the 11am - 12:30pm range.
This timing is particularly advantageous, as the snowfall lull is now upon us. From about 11am to 2 or 3pm, we'll have little or no snowfall to contend with. This should allow those with early dismissals to get home safely--and allow those stuck in school for a full day to get home safely as well.
The "back end" cranks up in the late afternoon and overnight. I am still thinking we're in for 8-10 inches tonight (on top of the 3-4 inches from this morning). Most of us should expect a foot of accumulation. Snow tapers after midnight.
Updated delay/cancellation percentages for Thursday coming soon...
Be sure to email me with snow totals and observations!
Monsoon's in-storm update
It's already snowing, and rather steadily, as of 7:30. (Actually, it was snowing by 4 or 5am, so it's not entirely clear why school is being held at all.)
There's a large area of moisture over us right now, but we'll get a break by late morning, when the precipitation tapers to scattered snow and rain showers. For a few hours in the afternoon, there will be little or no precipitation at all. This "first phase" of the storm will accumulate 2-3 inches.
The snow will crank back up as the beastly "back end" of the storm moves through late this afternoon and this evening, into the overnight hours. Look for accumulations of 6-8 inches from this portion of the storm, raising totals in some places to near a foot.
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 85%
Chance of delay Thursday, 90%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 75%
Monsoon's thinking on the midweek storm - Tuesday afternoon
Alright...it's time to make my final call on snow totals, timing, and school scheduling disruptions (though I may tweak the numbers a bit later this afternoon and/or tonight as new model guidance comes in). Here goes:
Light snow begins to fall by 8 or 9am Wednesday, mixing with freezing drizzle and showers by the early afternoon. I don’t see enough warm air to give us “plain rain” for any extended amount of time. The overwhelming majority of the precipitation we receive with this storm will be frozen.
Precipitation changes back to snow by late afternoon (4 or 5pm) and continues, heavy at times, until tapering early Thursday morning (by 5 or 6am at the latest).
Morning/afternoon accumulation will be an inch or so. The rain will result in a treacherous glaze on sidewalks and secondary roads; slush on major thoroughfares.
The “back end” (Wednesday late afternoon and evening) accumulation is the real wild card here. Given the moisture in this storm, as well as its likely track and duration, expect accumulations of 8-10 inches in Reading/Berks, Lancaster County, and the Lehigh Valley. Roads will become treacherous very quickly during this heavy snow, so it’s an especially good idea to stay home Wednesday evening and night.
Probability of cancellation Wednesday, 60% (administrators may foresee a travel nightmare for the afternoon and seek to avoid that by putting the ixnay on the school day. oolschay ayday. whatever.)
Probability of early dismissal Wednesday, 80% (more likely is that the light snow will arrive too late to influence administrators; when it arrives and travel conditions deteriorate, they will call early dismissals for noon or 1pm.)
Probability of (at least) a delay Thursday, 90% (most of us will be waking up with well over half a foot of snow on Thursday morning; it will take a while to dig out and clean up.)
Probability of cancellation Thursday, 75% (possible lingering snow showers early Thursday morning, strong winds, and falling temperatures--as well as persistently treacherous road conditions and transportation problems--may prompt administrators to bag the day altogether.)
Monsoon's thinking on the midweek storm - Monday afternoon
The picture of this week's storm is coming into sharper focus the closer we get to the event.
A bit. The track has shifted a bit westward and the atmospheric temperatures look like they'll stay down a bit longer.
Here's what I think:
Light snow begins sometime after midnight Tuesday night and continues into early Wednesday morning, becoming steadier toward mid-morning. This snow will accumulate only an inch or two before mixing with, then changing into, freezing rain. The result will be a slushy--and sometimes slippery--mess.
Then it gets interesting.
The "back end" of the storm--when the system begins to pull away and the precipitation changes back to snow--is when we could see more significant accumulations. It will also be blustery and colder behind the system. We could see totals of 8-10 inches in central PA, Berks, and the Lehigh Valley.
Probability of a delay on Wednesday: 60%
Probability of cancellation on Wednesday: 75%
Probability of an early dismissal on Wednesday: 40%
Probability of a delay on Thursday: 55%
Probability of cancellation Thursday: 30%
I'm looking at February 3rd-4th for another chance for snow...but let's take it one storm at a time.
Stay tuned for updates (tonight, tomorrow) on this Nor'easter as they become necessary.
Monsoon's thinking on the midweek storm - Sunday afternoon
This is a tough one.
Forecasters--at least in this age of technological advances and fancy equipment--are always told that the models are to be used as tools, not taken as gospel. ("Models" here refer to the alphabet soup of forecasting models, or computer-generated projections of what the weather will do days and sometimes even weeks ahead.) And yet a lot of forecasters seem to be taking model agreement on storm track, on the absence of adequate phasing, and on air temperature, as if they were writ by Mother Nature herself in her little daily planner.
Nay nay, say I.
This is the WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting) model, showing the bulk of the moisture heading offshore. As noted above, I have reason to believe that this solution will change...
The model composites suggest the following: the Nor'easter will follow an Eastern track, thus providing us here in the Berks forecast area only a glancing blow. Moreover, the dearth of moisture and the lack of cold air will mean that much of the precipitation that does fall will be in the form of rain.
Lots of time looms between now and the onset of the storm, so my thinking (and therefore, my forecast) is subject to change--maybe several times. But for now, today, this afternoon, this is what I think is going to happen:
A small clipper system will pass to our north on Monday night into Tuesday, sparing us any snowfall at all. Meanwhile, the Nor'easter will be forming off the Carolina coast. I think the track will shift slightly westward, but enough of the cold Canadian air will remain in the area that there will be little to no mixing. And it will be really windy.
The snow arrives Wednesday morning, becoming intense throughout the day and evening, and tapering to flurries overnight into Thursday. Expect accumulations in the 6-8 inch range, school cancellations on Wednesday, and delays on Thursday.
Did I mention that this forecast is subject to change? Because it is.
Stay tuned.
Monsoon on next week's potential baaaaaad mother-(shut yo mouth)
Already following that strange little storm system overnight--which gave a delay to some, converting a half-day into a nearly full day--the streets are abuzz with talk of a monster storm next week. So here's my initial take and a heads-up...
Check out the closed low in the top image, and just look at all that moisture on the GFS. Keep in mind that these models are only forecasting tools, but if this comes to fruition...oooo-wee!It's a classic Nor'easter setting up, most likely arriving early Tuesday morning and ending by Wednesday evening. Right now it looks as though it'll snow heavily throughout that period--with strong winds blowing the snow slantways and greatly diminishing visibility.
The forecast models are blowing this into a major storm, but there are several factors (including storm track, warm air aloft, and the amount of moisture available) that could mix the snow with rain or give us just a glancing blow.
Here's what I think: due to a trough of cold air settling into the area, I think this'll be all snow, at least for us in the Berks region. I also think it'll be a slow-moving system that has the potential to churn away over our area for up to 36 hours. The damage: two feet of snow and at least two more snow days.
But hey - there are 3 1/2 days between now and then, and a lot can change in that space for the reasons mentioned above. I'll be able to give a more definitive forecast on Sunday and/or Monday. Until then, it might not be a bad idea to reassess your travel schedule for Tuesday and Wednesday...just in case.
It's a complicated storm, and no one understands it but Monsoo-oon
Daaaaaaamn right.
Monsoon's Forecast: Thursday night / Friday and beyond...
Alright, my good people...here's my forecast:
Clouds increase throughout the day ahead of a storm system approaching from the west. Snow develops by 10 or 11pm tonight and tapers by 9 or 10am Friday. Some breaks of sunshine Friday afternoon as frigid arctic air moves in, plunging temperatures into the low teens overnight Friday to Saturday.
I've been vacillating a bit in terms of accumulation with this storm due to conflicting information regarding phasing (pulling moisture from another system/source to create a bigger storm) and snow ratio (the snow to liquid equivalent, which varies depending on surface temperature, wind speed, and other factors). But it's time to make up my damn mind. And so:
I'm downgrading the accumulation slightly to 4-6 inches...a bit more in NE Pennsylvania and the Poconos than in our area.
Possibility of at least a delay Friday: 95%
Possibility of cancellation Friday: 75%
Saturday and Sunday will feature variable cloudiness (sunnier on Saturday) with daytime highs only about 20 and overnight lows of about 6. (6!) Expect below-zero wind chills, especially on a breezy Saturday night. Apart from the famously crude idiom referencing a "brass bra," my favorite cold-weather sayings are "it's cold enough to freeze the nuts off a brass monkey" and "colder than a penguin's bollocks." "Cold as a banker's heart" is a good one, too, though it's a bit too pointed, and I would imagine that bankers aren't too partial to that one. Around the hallways here, the most popular manner in which to express this level of frigidity is "it's cold as balls, yo." Eloquence, it would seem, takes many forms.
Anyway: cold.
Next good chance for accumulating snow is Monday night into Tuesday, and this could be a bit more significant (in the 8-12 inch range at first blush). But that's more than 4 days away, and a lot could happen between now and then...
After that, we could be in for some more snow on February 2nd and 3rd.
Stay tuned this evening for updates when and if they become necessary...
Update at 9:50pm - light snow has begun to fall in the area. This fast-moving storm has caused me to make a few adjustments to the forecast:
Snow ends by 6 or 7am Friday. Accumulations will be in the 3-5 inch range.
Possibility of at least a delay Friday: 80%
Possibility of cancellation Friday: 60%
Monsoon
Monsoon's Tuesday night update: what about the rest of the week?
Two winter weather-makers in our immediate future to worry about...let's get right into it.
A bit of freezing drizzle or light snow showers are likely to move through the area overnight and into the early morning Wednesday - before 8 or 9am. Expect only a coating to an inch of accumulation at most. It appears now that the temperatures will fall a couple of degrees below freezing over most of the forecast area in the overnight hours. As a result, the morning commute - perhaps involving icy patches and a bit of snow - could be a bit dicey. Temperatures rise well into the mid 30s on Wednesday afternoon and the sun will peek through before another precipitous decline into the low 20s overnight into Thursday.
Thursday will be colder with increasing clouds. Temperatures will get only to 30, and the low overnight into Friday will be 22.
A model projection for Friday's storm. Please note that the greens at the center of the precipiation map do not indicate rain, but heavier snow.A snow storm enters the area very late Thursday night (arriving between 11pm Thursday and 1am Friday) and continues through early Friday afternoon. Right now I'm seeing about 5-7 inches of accumulation (it's snow; no mixing here) from this storm, but I will fine-tune the forecast and send out updates as the situation warrants.
Saturday and Sunday will be frigid: highs in the low 20s, lows in the single digits, with a stiff breeze.
More snow is possible on Monday, 1/24 and Friday, 1/28 as well. No, seriously.
And now, my school schedule percentages...
Possibility of delay Wednesday 1/19: 35%
Possibility of cancellation Wednesday 1/19: 15%
Possibility of early dismissal Thursday 1/20: 20%
Possiblity of at least a delay Friday 1/21: 90%
Possibility of cancellation Friday 1/21: 80%
Stay tuned for updates / tweakage!
Monsoon's Forecast for the Monday-Tuesday Snow / Ice Event
Let's get right to it:
Monday will be very cold, with highs only in the mid 20s.
Flurries and light snow develop Monday night, perhaps by 7 or 8pm, but the bulk of the snow will fall during the overnight hours and perhaps even into the Tuesday morning commute. Look for an inch or two of accumulation before the precipitation changes over to freezing rain - perhaps as early as 5 or 6am, but definitely by 7 or 8am.
[Freezing rain is just regular old rain that freezes to surfaces. Sleet falls as frozen ice pellets; I think we'll have little to no sleet here...just snow to freezing rain.]
Freezing rain continues to the early afternoon hours, when the surface temperatures finally creep above the freezing mark. The extended period of freezing rain will likely lead to widespread icing of telephone lines, tree limbs, and sidewalks. It will also make for potentially treacherous driving on Tuesday.
In the full range of wintry precipitation, an ice storm is really much more dangerous than heavy snowfall. With that in mind...
Chance of at least a delay on Tuesday: 85%
Chance of a cancellation on Tuesday: 75%
I will post an update tomorrow night (Monday 1/17) if my thinking changes on any of this.
Further heads-up: I'm looking at a small event for Friday 1/21 and a potentially more significant event for Sunday 1/23 into Monday 1/24...
Tuesday morning update on the Tuesday / Wednesday storm
I'm keeping nearly everything in place from my previous blog entry of last night, but need to make an adjustment in the timing...
It now appears that light snow will begin to reach the ground by 5 or 6pm - perhaps even a touch earlier in some areas - but the steadier, more intense and accumulating snow will still hold off until 10pm or later. I'd say you should be OK to drive in these periods of light snow, but remember to use caution given the havoc barely more than a coating of snow caused on Friday and Saturday mornings.
School closing / delay percentages are the same: 10% Tuesday early dismissal; 95% Wednesday delay (at least); 70% Wednesday closing.
Here's a look at this system as it nears our area. Stay tuned for updates as the situation warrants...
Monday evening update on the Tuesday / Wednesday storm
My good people,
A few "tweaks" here, based on the latest model and radar information...
The snow doesn't start to reach the ground around here until later Tuesday - probably 6 or 7pm as light snow, intensifying by 10 or 11pm.
Snow tapers by 9 or 10am Wednesday with light snow showers possible into the mid-afternoon.
School Percentages:
Tuesday early dismissal, 10%
Wednesday delay, 95% (chance of at least a delay)
Wednesday cancellation, 70%
Travel:
You should be OK for travel throughout the Tuesday evening commute. Most treacherous time for driving is when the storm begins to intensify (overnight) and on Wednesday morning before the roads are treated / cleared.
Storm totals:
I'm sticking to my earlier amounts, with the additional comment that NYC and parts of New England will likely see a foot or more out of this storm, which will intensify after it passes our area...
Monsoon's Forecast for the Tuesday-Wednesday storm
First, my good people, it is cold out there. “Cold” call I it, for, to define true coldness, what is ‘t but to be nothing else but cold? That it’s cold, ‘tis true; ‘tis cold, ‘tis pity, and pity ‘tis ‘tis true.
Brr.
As for the Tuesday-Wednesday storm, my plan is this: to offer a forecast now (roughly 36 hours prior to the event) and to send out an update Tuesday morning (12 hours prior) fine-tuning my forecast. I may even send out an update later today if the situation warrants it…
Driving through the county on Saturday morning and sliding on surfaces both treated and untreated, secondary and primary—I was reminded how just a wee bit of snow can wreak travel havoc. We only got an inch or so, but there were at least four accidents on local roads in less than an hour Saturday morning.
So…even if we only get a coating, roads can become treacherous. Be careful.
Here’s the forecast: Light snow arrives by mid-afternoon Tuesday and intensifies Tuesday night by 8 or 9pm. Snow is steadiest overnight, then begins to taper to light snow showers by 7 or 8am and should end by late morning.
Temperatures steady in the upper 20s.
Snow totals:
4-6 inches Berks
3-5 inches Lancaster
Fewer than 3 inches Lebanon and west
6-8 inches Philadelphia, Montgomery, and Chester Counties
5-7 inches Lehigh
7-9 inches Bucks
8-10 inches plus for central and northern NJ
Percentages, school scheduling disruptions, Berks region:
Tuesday early dismissal, 20%
Wednesday delay, 85% (that’s the chance that we’ll have at least a delay)
Wednesday cancellation, 65%
Snow potentials for the coming week
A couple of interesting potential winter weather events coming up, and with them the inevitable speculation. “It’s just a little dusting, the guy on the radio said,” say some. “I hear they want 8 inches now,” say others. (But don’t we all? I mean, so school can be cancelled? What did you think I meant? Really.)
Anywho, let’s get right to it.
Placement of the most snowfall with Friday’s storm is tricky; some areas could get a moderate snowfall, and others could just get a coating to an inch. Here’s what I think is going to happen, as of now…
Intermittent snow arrives by dawn Friday and tapers by Friday evening; a couple of snow showers are still possible early Saturday. I think the Berks area is going to get 2-3 inches of accumulation at most. The higher accumulations, perhaps in the 6-8 inch range, will likely be see in northeast Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and NYC Metro.
What does this mean for us? Temperatures will hold steady in the upper 20s for the duration of the snowfall, so look for deteriorating travel conditions throughout the period. Possibility of delay Friday: 20% (wouldn’t make much sense); possibility of cancellation Friday: 40%; possibility of early dismissal Friday: 60%.
The weekend is looking windy and cold, with temperatures struggling to make it to freezing.
Tuesday 1/11 is the next good chance of snow, but as of now I think this system is going to miss us.
Updates forthcoming as these events come into better focus…
Weather Super-Alert: Sunday blizzard!
OK, whoa. Here's the story:
The regional radar, as of 7:15pm on 12/25/10It's going to start snowing around here about 7 to 9am Sunday, tapering around midnight Sunday, ending by about 7 to 9am Monday. It's a Nor'easter, folks.
A blizzard differs from an ordinary snowstorm in that it involves winds of 35mph or greater along with dramatically compromised visibility. And starting around 6pm Sunday and continuing overnight, we're getting a freaking blizzard. No joke.
You should probably be able to get around (driving and such) throughout the afternoon Sunday, but I strongly discourage travel from dinnertime Sunday through the overnight period.
Temperatures will be in the 20s throughout the day, with wind chills during the day in the teens; evening and overnight wind chills will dip well into the single digits.
Accumulations? Here are my predictions as of Saturday evening...
Berks & Lehigh Counties: 5 to 7 inches; the amounts will be difficult to measure as drifting occurs. Isolated areas may receive more.
Lancaster, Chester, York, & Lebanon Counties: 4 to 6 inches; some places locally higher, as above.
Philadelphia, Delaware, & Montgomery Counties: 6 to 10 inches; some places locally higher, as above.
Central & Southern New Jersey: 14 to 18 inches; some places locally higher, as above.
North Jersey & New York City: 12 to 16 inches; some places locally higher, as above.
So there you have it. Just goes to show what even a slight change in track can do to a forecast...
Stay tuned for updates!
Weather Alert: Snow likely on Sunday
It now appears that the storm now impacting much of the south will affect us on Sunday. Expect light snow showers (and a few steadier periods possible) beginning Sunday afternoon. Lots of wind, particularly on Sunday night, will cause near-blizzard conditions, so it's no a good idea to be out and about in that weather. Temperatures will be in the 20s for most of the day, but wind will make it feel like it's in the teens (single digits at night).
Accumulations: The Reading area--as well as west toward Lebanon and east toward Allentown--will see a coating to an inch; perhaps a bit more in isolated areas. Lancaster and Chester Counties will see 1-2 inches. Philadelphia and southern New Jersey will get 3-5 inches. Some places--particularly near the coasts and in higher elevations--may see more than 6 inches.
Clearing and very windy on Monday with wind chills in the single digits throughout the day.
Stay tuned here for further details on this developing situation.
Oh, and ... Merry Christmas.
Monsoon's White Christmas (?) Weather Update
There are rumblings of a Christmas weekend storm…here are my thoughts:
Thursday 12/23: Mostly sunny and windy (sustained at 20mph; gusts as high as 30-35mph). High 35, low 22.
Friday 12/24: Clouds mixed with sunshine and continued windy (though a bit less so than Thursday). High 37, low 21.
Saturday 12/25: Continued breezy and mainly cloudy with some breaks of sun. Clouding up at night, but dry. A bit colder. High 31, low 19.
Sunday 12/26: Overcast and quite windy with a few light snow showers possible. At this point, it appears that the moisture will be centered well to our south, so while some of us will get a dusting to a coating at most, this is not the snow event it could have been. Still, the roads are pretty cold, so even a slight coating during a light snow shower could produce slippery conditions. Use particular caution during times of precipitation on Sunday and Monday. High 31, low 22.
Monday 12/27: Continued overcast and very windy, with a few periods of light snow possible – particularly early. Turning out partly cloudy and remaining cold. High 29, low 18.
Tuesday 12/28: Sunny, clear, and still somewhat windy. High 34, low 21.
Wednesday 12/29: Partly cloudy and a bit milder. High 37, low 24.
Thursday 12/30: Mostly sunny and seasonable. High 38, low 27.
Friday 12/31: Overcast with a bit of snow likely. High 36, low 26.
Saturday 1/1/11: Sunny and colder. High 28, low 14.
Sunday 1/2: Clouds predominate. High 30, low 19.
Beyond: The first week of the New Year looks potentially headache-inducing, weather-wise. I’m looking at a chance of ice (mixed precipitation causing travel nightmares) on Monday 1/3, Wednesday 1/5, and Thursday 1/6.
As always, stay tuned. I will send updates if my thinking changes significantly regarding the Christmas weekend storm track or any aspect of the forecast…
Take care,
Weekend (and beyond) weather update from Monsoon
It was 15 degrees when I made my way in to school this morning, and later today the temperature will get up to a balmy 33.
It’s damned cold.
For the past week or so, I’ve been tracking the potential for a Nor’easter in our area this weekend. Here are my thoughts on this weekend’s weather and beyond…
Friday 12/17: Partly cloudy and breezy; less frigid. High 36, low 23.
Saturday 12/18: Partly cloudy initially; becoming overcast. There is the chance of snow late Saturday night into Sunday as a Nor’easter chugs up the eastern seaboard, but right now my call is no snow. It looks like the system will drift out to sea so that precipitation will only graze Virginia and Maryland.
Sunday 12/19: Mostly cloudy and breezy with the aforementioned tiny chance of snow (but as noted above, my call right now is no snow). High 34, low 23.
[I will send out another update if my thinking changes on the weekend event...]
Monday 12/20: Partly cloudy, windy and colder. High 31, low 18.
Tuesday 12/21: Clouds mixed with sunshine; a chance of snow showers late. High 36, low 25.
Wednesday 12/22: Generally overcast and quite windy, with sustained winds above 20mph and strong gusts. High 35, low 26.
Thursday 12/23: Partly cloudy and still somewhat windy. High 39, low 24.
Friday 12/24: Increasing clouds with flurries or snow showers possible late. High 39, low 25.
Saturday 12/25: Sunny and clear; a bit milder. High 44, low 33.
Sunday 12/26: Sunny and clear; unseasonably mild. High 46, low 36.
Beyond: Highs in the upper 30s and low 40s through the beginning of January; no real chance of wintry precipitation.
As always, stay tuned…and have a Very Merry Hoffmas!
Monsoon's Forecast (and "Hasselhoffs" postmortem) for 10 December 2010
First, let me get this out of the way: I have just been informed that “The Hasselhoffs” has been pulled by A&E (they haven’t used the word “cancelled,” but really, that’s what is happening). Thanks go to Sue Fineman for ruining my damn day.
The first two half-hour episodes aired Sunday 12/5 to apparently disappointing ratings (718,000 for the first episode; 505,000 for the second one), so A&E has no plans to air the remaining 10 episodes that were produced this past spring and summer. I cannot deny that the show was a putrid mélange of show-biz clichés, ham-fisted reality-show scripting, and was made almost unwatchable by Hasselhoff’s two screeching, shiftless daughters, Hay and Tay. But there was potential in this show, if only because of its title subject. I mean, this is David Friggin’ Hasselhoff, folks. You know what? I can no more.
But despite this programming travesty, this capricious and hair-trigger decision on the part of shortsighted A&E execs, the weather goes on.
The next two weeks or so should be interesting: fluctuating temperatures, high winds, rain, ice, and snow. Here are the details…
Weather narrative: A nice-sized storm this Sunday will give us nearly all rain (and few, if any, travel woes), despite some models that were suggesting our first measurable snow earlier this week. Rolling in behind the moisture will be the coldest temperatures of the season so far (and really, winter hasn’t even begun). We won’t see freezing (looking up from below) until Thursday or maybe even Friday.
Next good chance of frozen precipitation is Sunday 12/19 into Monday 12/20; stay tuned. Look for a bit of moderation thereafter.
Beyond the forecast: More of the same here, with highs in the low 40s and lows around freezing. Precipitation is possible for 12/25 into 12/26, but I think it would be in the form of rain…