Monsoon's Weekend Storm Update
A weekend storm update.
The straight dope on Saturday’s snowstorm: AM light snow showers and flurries are possible, but the bulk of the snow will fall after around 11am or noon. Snow will fall steadily, but at varying intensities, tapering late Saturday night to very early Sunday morning (around 1 or 2am) with a bit of sleet possibly mixing in late.
Total accumulation in the forecast area: 4-6 inches. High 31, low 22.
I will send an update tonight if the forecast track, timing, or accumulation change appreciably.
Sunday looks cloudy to start with some clearing later. High 29, low 14.
Next week is looking cold with highs just at or below freezing and lows in the upper teens. Snow is possible Tuesday—stay tuned for updates. By week’s end we’ll see the coldest weather of the season: highs struggling to reach 20, lows in the mid-single digits—and wind chills well below zero.
Bunk is a star!!
Yes, Bunk was featured on NBC10 this morning in a segment called "Take This Job" in which Terry Ruggles goes to area businesses and learns about the job. Bunk attends doggy day care at Total Dog and a Little Cat in Adamstown, where Jon and Lori take great care of him. (I know: we are those people, as in, I can't believe those people who lavish so much attention on their dogs and pamper them like they're actual human beings. Never thought it would happen, but Bunk came along and changed all that...)
Anywho, Bunk is at the beginning of the video trying to climb up the gate (and barking), and he's pictured at about the 42-second mark milling around on the floor. ("Little Bunk"--so named because he has the same coloring as Bunk and the two are constantly palling around together at Total Dog--can be seen at Bunk's feet.) That's Bunk's tail at about the 10-second mark too.
Enjoy!
Monsoon's Forecast Adjustment, 8pm
Snow did not begin as early as I'd thought it would due to extremely low dewpoints (dry air) preventing afternoon precipitation from reaching the ground. Sleet and freezing rain will change to plain rain around or just after midnight. Temperatures will rise above freezing right around AM commute Wednesday (6-7am) so travel could still be treacherous. A prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain tonight could result in an ice buildup on power lines, back streets, and trees, resulting in scattered power outages and the like. My updated percentages:
Delay, Wednesday: 55%
Cancellation, Wednesday: 20%
Monsoon's Quick Winter Weather Update
Habari mori,
My forecast for today and tomorrow isn't changing substantially, but I wanted to adjust a few things:
The snow/sleet mix will arrive late morning or early afternoon, earlier than I'd predicted yesterday. There will also likely be a prolonged period of ice overnight, possibly causing major havoc with downed limbs, power outages, and travel difficulties.
Adjustments to percentages:
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday: 45%
Chance of delay Wednesday: 85%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 50%
Monsoon's Winter Weather Update for Monday, 5 January 2009
Hey there...wanted to give you an update on the coming weather. A reminder for those from far and wide reading this: my forecast area roughly covers central and southern Berks and northern Lancaster Counties.
Tuesday 1/6 – mostly cloudy with snow showers developing around 4 or 5pm, continuing through the evening, accumulating an inch, perhaps two in a few locations. Snow mixes with sleet and freezing rain, then changes over to ice around or just before midnight, continuing to 5 or 6am. Travel will be particularly treacherous later Tuesday evening and during AM rush Wednesday. High 34, low 28.
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday: 15%
Chance of delay Wednesday: 75%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 30%
Wednesday 1/7 – beginning with icy conditions, then precipitation turns to all rain and tapers by late afternoon. High 36, low 30.
Thursday 1/8 – mostly cloudy and very windy with snow showers possible later in the evening. High 34, low 22.
Friday 1/9 – clear to partly cloudy, somewhat windy and cold. High 30, low 19.
Saturday 1/10 – breezy and overcast with intermittent snow showers, perhaps accumulating. (Stay tuned for updates.) High 31, low 21.
Sunday 1/11 – partly cloudy and breezy. High 28, low 15.
Next week – very cold with highs only in the mid to upper 20s and lows in the mid to upper teens. I’m looking at Monday 1/12 and Thursday 1/15 for possible snow events.
The following weekend – frigid with lows perhaps dipping into the single digits at night.
Beyond – maybe a “January thaw” toward the 20th with highs approaching the 40s and even 50s.
Monsoon's Quick Update for New Year's Day 2009
Happy New Year!
Thursday night: a few clouds, cold, low 17.
Friday 1/2: breezy and mostly cloudy with a few snow showers, mostly in the morning; a few places could see a coating to an inch of accumulation, but most will see very little. Clearing late. High 36, low 22.
Saturday 1/3: partly to mostly sunny and rather windy—though not nearly as windy as New Year’s Eve Day. High 38, low 20.
Sunday 1/4: mostly cloudy with rain, mixing with snow, developing in the afternoon. Most precipitation will be light and accumulations will be trace to coating. High 35, low 31.
Next week: highs in the mid to upper 30s, lows in the mid to upper 20s throughout the week. Snow is still possible on Tuesday evening and overnight, as well as Thursday the 8th. Monday will be breezy and Thursday (snow or no snow) will be very, very windy. I will provide updates as these events draw nearer and come into sharper focus.
Next weekend: colder with highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens.
Thereafter: the following week is looking pretty active, with a couple of systems potentially affecting our travel and schedules on Tuesday the 13th and Wednesday the 14th.
Stay tuned for updates...
Monsoon's Complete Weather Update for Monday, 29 December 2008
Greetings to all during this fantastically lengthy holiday break!
We are having a fine holiday season and enjoying the fuzz-ball—aka BUNK—as he brings his sweetness and energy to our home. Bunk just turned 4 months old and is growing by leaps and bounds (and, is leaping and bounding all around the house). Below are two recent pictures of Bunk: in the first, he rapturously gnaws on the chew toy his Aunt Megan got him for Christmas; the second features Bunk in a recumbent pose on the hassock, looking just as cute as the day is long.
On to the weather, which has been screwy of late: a high of 67 at my house on Sunday, and the low on New Year’s Eve will be in the teens. I’m currently looking at three potential snow/ice events for the region: Friday 1/2, Tuesday 1/6, and Friday 1/9. See details below and stay tuned for updates...
The weather:
Weather narrative: Enjoy these next couple of days in the 40s, because it’s the last time we’ll see temperatures this high until about the third week of January. Very late Tuesday night a system will move through to our north, and it may clip us with some snow showers into Wednesday, but nothing really to worry about there. Watch out for high winds and powerful gusts on Wednesday. Friday’s system is a bit more intriguing, in terms of the amount of moisture and temperature levels. I’ll send an update later in the week as that comes into clearer focus, but it could evolve into an accumulating storm. The next issue looks to be Tuesday, with a potentially unpleasant mixture of snow and ice that could cause a disruption in our school schedule. The Friday after we return is looking snowy, too, but I’ll leave that speculation until we get closer to the event. At the very least, it looks like we’ll be very cold by then, so it doesn’t appear we’ll have to worry about mixed precipitation with that storm.
Beyond the forecast: Continued cold with a significant storm possible for mid-January...
Monsoon's Winter Weather Update for Wednesday, 24 December 2008
Temperatures stayed down overnight—I had thought they’d rise in the early morning hours—giving most of us in the forecast area a mixture of sleet and freezing rain. The result is a nice quarter-inch coating of ice on the sidewalks and cars this morning and some of us prepare to undertake some holiday travel.
The good news is that the temperature will be rising through the 30s by noon and into the mid 40s by this evening, so this winter weather event will become all rain—heavy at times, through late this evening—washing away much of this icy slush and making it easier to get the frozen crust off our windshields. Travel should be fine by late morning.
You’re waiting for “the bad news” now, aren’t you? Well, there is no bad news! It’s Christmas!! Pessimists. Humbugs.
On Christmas Day, we’ll see a mix of clouds and sun with a high of 43 and a low of 25.
Boxing Day looks a bit warmer with a high in the mid 40s and low in the low 30s.
This weekend looks rainy and drizzly with highs around 50 and lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Next week looks a little more seasonably cold with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s; lows in the upper 20s. I’m looking at a moderate snow event possible for December 31st, and then a more substantial snow event the 1st into the 2nd. I’m also looking at the 5th into the 6th for another potential event...
Stay tuned for updates on next week’s potential winter weather!
Have a great holiday!!
Flashback: Monsoon Martin's "Change Up, Gentlemen!" Forecast
Dear readers,
I wanted to share this selection from the early days of my forecasting/writing, well before I was a "blogger"--I just sent out my ruminations and prognostications via email. This one's from October 2005, and it's all about one of my favorite teachers/coaches of all time, Joe Scott. Please to enjoy.
Monsoon Martin’s “Change Up, Gentlemen!” Forecast
Tuesday, 11 October 2005
Quite a lot of rain we got Friday and Saturday, huh? Whoo-ee! Adamstown received nine and a half inches of rain, widespread flooding in Lancaster and Berks Counties. And I’m sorry to report that we’ve got more rain on the way this week—but fortunately, not in the amounts we saw over the past weekend. It looks like we’ll be drying out toward next weekend, but stay tuned. I’ll keep you posted on the vicissitudes of the weather...
That word—vicissitudes—takes me back to a time of cracking voices, growth spurts, the discovery of acne, the emergence of the first precious wisps of hair under the arms and on the upper lip, and all holy hell breaking loose with the reproductive system. Yes, my friends, I speak of puberty. And this blossoming wonderment begins in that hormone petri dish known as middle school.
“Vicissitudes” was a favorite word Mr. Joe Scott used to embody the mutability of life, the ups and downs, the inevitable changes that characterize any of our experiences. And through these vicissitudes (I can’t stop using it, so deep is my affection for the word), Mr. Scott was our anchor, our mentor: our gym teacher.
Each day we would arrive at the gymnasium of A. D. Eisenhower Middle School in Norristown, and we would encounter a sign on the locker room door: “Change Up, Gentlemen!” This was an indication that we were to retire immediately to the locker room and don our gym uniforms of blue shorts and a white short (blue and white being the school colors; our mascot, the Eagle). After changing, we’d repair to the gymnasium, where we were greeted by large pieces of paper hung high on the walls, hand-lettered by Mr. Scott. The one that stands out in my mind’s eye is “Do Unto Others As You Would Have Them Do Unto You!” (He always capitalized, and frequently used exclamation points: such was the urgency of his message.)
[Eisenhower Middle School, where Monsoon spent his sixth, seventh, and eighth grade years.The building is shown here as Eisenhower Senior High School, from which Monsoon’s mother graduated.]
Once inside the gym we’d arrange ourselves into rows, in Squad Sitting Position, indicating that we were ready to begin class. Squad Sitting Position was a manner of seating that seemed designed to maximize the pain delivered to the buttocks. We would sit with our legs out in front of us, half-bent, knees together, as if we’d just completed a sit-up. And until Mr. Scott took attendance (“Mr. Martin?” “Present.” “Mr. White?” “Unh.” “Mr. White? Is Mr. White here?” “Present.”), we would remain in Squad Sitting Position.
What strikes me about Mr. Scott’s gym classes is the fact that he addressed us by our last names, and as a group we were “gentlemen.” We weren’t merely a bunch of kids named Kendall and Andy and Glen running around and getting sweaty in gym; we were Mr. Meade, Mr. Talone, and Mr. Martin—mature gentlemen engaging in purposeful athletic pursuits. It lent an air of gentility and respect to the proceedings.
As luck would have it, Mr. Joe Scott wore many hats in his position at Eisenhower Middle School. Not only was he the gym teacher; he was also the health teacher, the basketball coach, and the baseball coach. In Health, we twelve-year-olds swaggered in, flush with the dawning of a new physiological day, and Mr. Scott guided us in our first tentative steps toward understanding our bodies. (There was no fifth-grade assembly for boys explaining the havoc that would be wrought on every aspect of our young selves, so we were grateful for any information that came our way—legitimate or otherwise—in middle school.) In addition to the Our Changing Bodies theme of the class, Mr. Scott also injected some life lessons into the mix. Most vividly I remember him admonishing us to avoid the fate of some, who end up “sitting on the street corner, drinking wine and eating Jolly Rogers.” Uproarious laughter greeted that little gem, but I think the message sank in. To this day, I don’t know what Jolly Rogers are, and I don’t want to know. Not much of a wine connoisseur either. Street corners make me nervous, too...
Occasionally in gym class, we’d take to the field outside and play a friendly game of soccer. Inevitably there would be some infraction or another committed, and Mr. Joe Scott would come striding across the field—his center of gravity when running was so low as to make this activity look almost comical—blowing his whistle and declaring that a “free kick” would be attempted. Now, if you’re not familiar with soccer (soccer buffs, feel free to correct me), a free kick is when a player from the opposing team sets up the ball at the corner of a box in front of the goal area. In between this player and the other team’s goal and goalie stand several (four? six?) players from the goalie’s team, trying to make it more difficult for the opposing player to score. Putting them directly in the line of fire of a kicked soccer ball. Mr. Scott had sage advice for those unlucky fellows chosen for this free kick “wall”: “Protect the head and genitals at all times, gentlemen! Protect the head and genitals!” And he would lock one arm—fist clenched in vigilance—in place in front of his face, the other arm locked in front of his genitals. It was a ridiculous pose, but not one boy on that wall balked at conscientiously mimicking this stance.
[These soccer players are approximating Mr. Joe Scott’s strategy of protecting the head and genitals—evidently having decided that their genitals are more precious and irreplaceable than their faces.]
As I mentioned earlier, Mr. Joe Scott was the middle school baseball and basketball coach as well, so I decided to avail myself of his mentorship by participating in these interscholastic pursuits in both seventh and eighth grades. And what disparate experiences these turned out to be. In basketball, we had an excellent team and compiled a winning record in 1985-86, then went undefeated in the 1986-87 season. As the only non-African American player on that team, I recall making every effort to be accepted. Some of the efforts that come to mind: singing and dancing along to “Brass Monkey” by the Beastie Boys in the locker room; making pitiful attempts at break dancing (I could plant my hand on the ground, and perfected the final pose, but everything in between was a tragic floundering of knees and feet, lacking as it did the fluidity and grace of my peers’ performances); and having my number (20) shaved into the back of my head.
In baseball, however, our team realized somewhat less success. More specifically, we did not win a single game in either the 1986 or the 1987 season. Painfully often, the “mercy rule” was applied, which dictates that if one team is leading the other by ten runs by a certain point in the game, it was (mercifully, hence the name) stopped to stanch the suffering. We were—as we had decided all we could do was embrace our record of futility—“defeated,” since we had won no games. I remember playing a great many positions for that team, including pitcher, and given our record, it should be obvious that my basketball prowess far outpaced my abilities on the baseball diamond. (See our 1987 team photo, below.)
I also remember a teammate of mine named Dave Borzillo. Quirky kid. Used to break out in a single refrain time and again, at idle moments during practice or game, and no one knew if what he was singing was actually a song: "God damnnn this traffic jam! How I hate to be late ... hurts my motor to go so slowwwww." In my research for this forecast, I actually confirmed that the song does exist. It's a very bad song by the normally reliably good James Taylor called "Traffic Jam." So Dave wasn't crazy, he just had questionable taste.
And admirably, Mr. Joe Scott's coaching methods were not measurably different for the undefeated basketball team and the "defeated" baseball team. If we had tried our best, he taught us, we could be satisfied with the outcome. (Now that I think about it, we couldn't really say we had given it our "all" after some of the baseball games. But it's the message that matters.) And Mr. Scott's problem-solving was, like him, simple and kind. Once I was struck in the upper thigh (OK, groin) by a baseball. Mr. Scott was instantly striding toward me, low to the ground, cat-like, dispensing the same advice he offered for any injury: "Rub the area gently, Mr. Martin! Rub the area gently!"
[Eisenhower Middle School's "defeated" baseball team, Spring 1987. From top left: Joe Scott, Eddie Carr, Monsoon, David Borzillo, Tony Womack. Regrettably, Monsoon cannot recall anyone else's name.]
Protect the head and genitals!
Monsoon's Weather Update for Saturday, 20 December 2008
I don’t know if my forecasting “expertise” is worth a plugged nickel anymore after my latest fiasco, but in case there’s anyone still listening, I thought I’d share my ideas about tonight’s storm as well as some upcoming weather events...
On Saturday we’ll see a few scattered flurries and snow showers. Snowfall begins in earnest sometime around or just past midnight, continuing through the late morning Sunday, when it could begin to mix with some sleet. Accumulations will be right around 2-3 inches for the forecast area of northern Lancaster and central and southern Berks Counties. Things will clear out Sunday afternoon—we’ll see some strong winds and may even see some sunshine—behind a cold front that will give us some of the most frigid conditions of the season so far. Watch for compromised travel conditions throughout the day Sunday, but especially in the morning.
Monday will be windy and very cold with a high near 30 and a low around 13.
Tuesday will be a bit less bone-chilling with a high in the mid to upper 30s and a low in the upper 20s. Precipitation will arrive as sleet overnight, but change to rain showers throughout the day and evening Wednesday, when the high will reach into the mid 40s.
On Thursday we’ll see plenty of clouds and a few rain showers with highs in the low 40s and lows in the upper 20s.
Friday will also be cloudy and mild with similar temperatures to Thursday’s and perhaps a passing rain shower or two.
Next weekend is looking cloudy with spotty rain and drizzle, the heaviest being Sunday morning. Highs are in the low to mid 40s; lows in the low 30s.
The following week will be seasonably colder again with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the low to mid 20s.
The New Year will begin with even colder temperatures—highs just in the upper 20s to low 30s—and perhaps a bit of snowfall around the 4th or 5th.
I’ll send out updates as necessary when weather conditions warrant.
Take care and have a great holiday break!
Monsoon's Forecast Contrition Haiku for Friday, 19 December 2008
Inconceivable
Too warm for frozen precip
Rain / snow line crept north
Said bye yesterday
And yet here we are again
A little awkward
Another blown call
Monsoon hangs his head in shame
Happy holidays!
Monsoon's Winter Storm Update for Thursday, 18 December 2008
And now for the hotly awaited update on Friday’s weather event...
Snow begins around 4 or 5am and falls quite heavily until mid to late morning, accumulating 2 to 3 inches. Snow mixes with sleet and freezing rain throughout the afternoon, then tapers to snow showers and freezing rain/drizzle by early evening. Precipitation ends by 6 or 7pm. Afternoon high will only be 33 or 34. Travel will be somewhat compromised in the early morning, and will become more treacherous by the late morning and early afternoon.
I will send an update later today or tonight if my thinking changes on this event.
Accumulations:
There’s more moisture associated with this fast-moving system, so accumulations will be more impressive than Tuesday night’s storm. 2 to 4 inches of snow and ice in the forecast area; perhaps as much as six inches north of Berks County. An inch or two of snow and sleet in Philadelphia and the immediate suburbs.
Delays and cancellations:
Chance of delay Friday, 90%.
Chance of school cancellation Friday, 70%.
Beyond:
We’re entering a very cold and quite active period in terms of wintry weather. Winter storm potential exists Saturday the 20th into Sunday the 21st; Wednesday the 24th into Thursday the 25th; and Friday the 26th into Saturday the 27th. Stay tuned throughout the holiday break for periodic updates...
Monsoon's Quick Winter Weather Update
An update on my thinking for this tricky storm:
A period of light snow and sleet will move through this morning; then in the early afternoon we’ll see a lull in precipitation until a larger area of moisture comes through. In the very late afternoon and evening look for snow, mainly. Overnight and into Wednesday morning we’ll see a mix of snow and sleet generally, with the event ending as freezing drizzle or just plain scattered rain showers on Wednesday morning.
Totals:
2-3 inches of snow mixed with sleet in the Reading area; perhaps an inch or two more in northern Berks and the Lehigh Valley.
An inch or two of snow mixed with plenty of sleet and freezing rain in Lancaster County, southern Berks, Chester and Montgomery Counties.
Mainly rain with perhaps a coating to an inch of sleetish slop in the Philadelphia area and points south.
Adjusted cancellation predictions:
Tuesday early dismissal: 55%
Wednesday delay: 75%
Wednesday cancellation: 35%
Monsoon's Forecast Update / Shoe-Flinging Analysis
Since I heard about this on Sunday and saw the video today, it has still not gotten old, and will never get old. Surely by now you’ve heard that our outgoing President, George W. Bush, had to bob and weave like Floyd Mayweather to avoid two shoes being chucked at him—with impressive aim and velocity—by an Iraqi reporter at a news conference in the Prime Minister’s office during Dubya’s surprise visit on Sunday. It was unquestionably the most eloquent use of footwear to make a political statement since Nikita Khrushchev banged his shoe on the table at the UN in 1960. (And surely you’ve also heard by now that one of the most vehement shows of disrespect in the Muslim world is to show the bottom of one’s shoe to another—or, more directly, throw it at him or her—because it’s akin to saying, “You scum-sucking pig! You son of a motherless goat!”*)
Here is the video, taken from Brazilian television (I cannot explain why, but the Portuguese somehow makes it that much funnier). FYI: search YouTube for clips that include slow motion and alternate angles, if you care to analyze the footage—pun intended—like it’s the Zapruder film and search for a second shoe-lobber. I’m quite content to watch this clip, though.
Anywho, I have a forecast update for you—potential for some hazardous driving conditions and winter weather over the coming days. Stay tuned, as always, for updates, as things can change quickly with a storm like this.
Tuesday 12/16: It’s difficult to believe given today’s very mild temperatures in the mid 60s, but by Tuesday morning’s commute, the temperature will only be in the upper 30s; it will drop to freezing by the time school lets out Tuesday. What this means for us is that it will be cold enough—both in terms of surface temperatures and the air aloft—to precipitate in a wintry fashion and create travel troubles.
Rain in the morning, mixing with freezing rain by late morning; changing over to snow by 1 or 2 in the afternoon. Snow continues intermittently, making travel a bit dicey; snow intensifies later and overnight into Wednesday morning, bringing a total accumulation of snow and ice to 2 to 4 inches. (Philly suburbs get less accumulation but more icing; Lehigh Valley and northern Berks could see as much as six inches of snow, depending on when the changeover takes place.)
Cancellations / delays: The snow and ice in particular make Tuesday evening’s commute potentially dodgy, so be careful. Tuesday AM delay 15%; cancellation 10%; early dismissal 35%.
Wednesday 12/17: Snow ends mid-morning, possibly mixing with sleet. High 38, low 29.
Cancellations / delays: Wednesday AM is the most treacherous; depending on snow totals, we could see some cancellations. Wednesday AM delay 85%; cancellation 45%.
(Remember that the cancellation and delay potentials are evaluated separately, as distinct events, and you should not look for percentages to add up in any particular way. For example, when I say there is an 85% chance of delay on Wednesday, there is no converse percentage implied. Can a statistics teacher out there help me explain this more clearly? I’m not even sure what the hell I mean.)
Thursday 12/18: Cloudy and milder with rain possible on and off. High 42, low 34.
Friday 12/19: Overcast and windy with a shower or two; snow may develop later on. High 44, low 31.
Saturday 12/20: Partly cloudy and colder. High 38, low 27.
Sunday 12/21: Overcast with a few breaks of sunshine; some snow showers are possible. High 35, low 21.
Monday 12/22: Sunny, clear, windy and cold. High 33, low 18.
Tuesday 12/23: Sunny, clear, breezy and colder. High 28, low 16.
Wednesday 12/24: Partly to mostly cloudy with snow possible late. High 34, low 22.
Thursday 12/25: Cloudy and cold with no precipitation around today (though given the cold temperatures, some snowfall from the preceding week or so could still be on the ground, technically making it a “white Christmas”). High 33, low 21.
Friday 12/26: Overcast with snow developing; could accumulate. High 34, low 26.
Next weekend: Very cold and snowy with highs struggling to get out of the 30s.
Beyond: A bit milder the last few days of 2008 and into 2009, it appears.
*Be the first to email me with the source of this reference (and another accurate quotation from the same source) and you will win a priceless gift: prominent mention in this vaunted space in my next posting, along with my deepest admiration.
Monsoon Martin's Forecast Contrition Haiku
I present the first-ever (and surely, not the last) Monsoon Martin Forecast Contrition Haiku. I chose the form haiku (in its English incarnation, consisting of three lines with five, seven, and five syllables) because the original Japanese form sought to explore the inscrutable essences of nature and its processes. Since that is what I do—try to make sense of the mysteries of meteorology—it seemed appropriate. Please to enjoy:
Besieged weatherman
Gave colleagues hope for delay
Here we [bleep]ing are
Considered quitting
But I’ll stay to forecast on
If you will have me
Break in the action
Drizzle when I took Bunk out
“Tail end” is lagging
Mild temperatures
Stayed mid to upper 30s
No snow, no pellets
Cold air battles warm
Warm dominates surface temps
Cold hangs head in shame
Morning snow showers
May have students clamoring
Dream on, my young friends
Next Thursday, Friday
Monsoon still holds out some hope
Accumulations
Looking ahead now
Snow 24th, 25th?
Hope for White Christmas
Take care and stay tuned for updates...
Monsoon's Wet Weather Update for Wednesday, 10 December 2008
Wednesday will begin in the upper 50s to near 60 with all rain—and quite a bit (up to an inch in some places) after a drizzly early morning. Rain tapers in the evening, but clouds stick around as another round of rain will ride along the frontal boundary on Thursday. Windy. Temperatures dropping throughout the day to the upper 30s overnight.
Thursday late morning into Thursday night, another round comes in (may linger to Friday morning) which looks to bring heavier rain. I think it’s all rain with some sleet/freezing rain on the tail end for our area.
Let me talk about that “tail end”: this is the tricky part. If the colder air dips in underneath the warmer air aloft (the air that’s helping to moderate temperatures on Wednesday), and it happens a bit earlier than expected, we could a sleet/rain mix by rush hour Thursday and a few inches of accumulating snow throughout the evening and overnight before it tapers off. But I think the milder air will win out where and when it counts, so that the precipitation for our area will be nearly all rain with some sleet and freezing rain mixing in at the tail end.
For Philadelphia and the surrounding counties, there will be little or no “tail end”; that is to say, it’s an all rain event, so no worries about deteriorating driving conditions on Thursday night.
Another inch or two of rain in this second “wave” makes 3+ in some places for both waves of rainfall. Breezy and colder Thursday with highs only getting into the upper 30s and dropping at night through the 30s to below freezing. A few flurries or snow showers overnight and into early Friday morning may deliver a coating to an inch.
Friday is very cold with a high only in the mid 30s and low in the low 20s—perhaps the teens.
Delays/cancellations: Wednesday, no chance. Thursday, no delay or cancellation, but 10% early dismissal. Friday, 65% delay; 30% chance of cancellation.
Looking ahead: next week’s Wednesday-Thursday storm is setting up nicely, but high temperatures will be into the 40s for the week, so it’s looking like rain right now. But it’s still early.
I’ll send out an update tomorrow (Thursday) if anything changes...
Monsoon's Update for Sunday, 7 December 2008
It's always a good day when the Eagles beat the Giants, and the Cowboys are handed an ugly loss--all within the span of a few hours. The only thing better will be when the Eagles whup Dallas at the Linc on December 28th...
Mrs. Monsoon and I saw a great fight card at the Sovereign Center on Friday night, which featured impressive knockouts by Philly's Mike Jones (pictured below) and Reading's Jason Cintron (younger brother of welterweight star Kermit, who was ringside to cheer on his sib). Inexplicably, the card--staged by Golden Boy Promotions and televised by the Spanish-language outlet Telefutura--was sparsely attended by fewer than 1,000 fans. I would have thought that world-class professional boxing would draw more spectators...
Anywho, on to the weather, which is sumbitching cold. An update:
Very, very cold Monday with overnight/morning lows in the mid teens and an afternoon high of only 31. Winds diminishing. Chance of delay Monday: 20%.
Becoming milder overnight Monday into Tuesday, so precipitation will be largely rain; snow showers with negligible accumulation may mix in early. High 43, low 38. No delays or cancellations.
After rain and drizzle overnight, expect still milder conditions on Wednesday: it will be cloudy with a warm breeze and some rain showers and drizzle; thunderstorms may even mix in! No delays or cancellations. High will reach 57; temperatures will then plunge to 30 overnight, when we may see some quick snow showers or flurries.
Thursday will be much, much colder with a high only reaching about 32 and a low of 18. I’m keeping an eye on a storm that has the potential to bring us a few inches of snow on Thursday. Chance of cancellation: 45%; chance of delay: 60%.
Friday looks clearer and very cold. High 33, low 18. Depending on what we get Thursday, we could be in for a delay on Friday.
The weekend will be seasonably cold with the slight chance of snow showers on Saturday evening. Highs in the mid to upper 30s; lows in the mid to upper 20s.
Next week will begin in much the same way, with seasonably cold temperatures. After a period of rain on Monday evening, we may see a bit of accumulating snow on Tuesday and Tuesday night—giving us a chance of delay or cancellation for Tuesday. The most intriguing event comes in Wednesday into Thursday, when we could get snow mixed with dangerous sleet and/or freezing rain.
Next weekend is now looking rainy and warmer over all, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Beyond will be colder, but nothing approaching the frigid conditions we’re experiencing now until the second week of January or so. As of now, it’s not looking like it’ll be a “white Christmas.”
Stay tuned for updates...
Monsoon's Complete Weather Update for Friday, 5 December 2008
Habari mori,
Here’s the forecast, which includes some very chilly weather, several chances for frozen precipitation, and a few potential delays or cancellations. Just a quick reminder that anything beyond a few days is subject to change dramatically depending on a variety of factors. I will send updates as needed to clarify and provide more specifics.
The weather:
Weather narrative: Cold air is entrenched in the region now, and a clipper system moves through over the weekend, as noted. These are notoriously difficult to predict; often they fall apart and produce only widely scattered snow showers, but there is evidence that this time it’ll hold together a little more nicely and give us a coating to an inch—maybe a couple of inches in some places. Another system will bring snow overnight Monday the 8th into Tuesday the 9th. Right now Tuesday looks to be a “mixed bag” with potentially hazardous conditions created by snow and sleet.
Next weekend looks like it may bring us some steadier snow that could accumulate in the 4-6 inch range. We get a brief warm-up to begin the last full week before break, and then another system could produce snow and some schedule problems as well around the 17th and 18th.
Future weather: After the 17th-18th weather system, things begin to moderate a bit for the remainder of the month.
Delay & cancellation potentials:
Monday 12/8 delay, 60%; cancellation, 20%
Tuesday 12/9 delay, 30%; cancellation, 65%
Wednesday 12/10 delay, 25%; cancellation, 10%
Wednesday 12/17 delay, 70%; cancellation, 25%
Thursday 12/18 delay, 55%; cancellation, 75%
The Official Monsoon Martin Winter 2008-09 Outlook
‘Sup,
Before I reveal my first annual Official Monsoon Martin Winter Outlook, I want to welcome a new member to the Martin family. His name is Bunk, he’s a three-month-old standard poodle, and he’s a bearish bundle of furry sweetness; the sound of his inquisitive paddling around the kitchen sounds like a five-year-old in footy pajamas skimming happily across the floor, and makes us very happy. Of course he cannot replace Sasha and Ruthie, whom we lost earlier this month and miss desperately. Thanks again to those of you who offered your kind condolences on their passing.
But Bunk can help fill the void left in our lives by the absence of our late companions, and recover some of the peculiar joy we derive from welcoming an animal into our home. I look forward to keeping you posted on his growth (he’s 25 pounds or so now; he’ll grow to at least 60 pounds) and shenanigans.
Now, for the Official Monsoon Martin Winter 2008-09 Outlook, which is based on my own study of forecast models and meteorological trends, with a generous helping of “gut feeling” thrown in. I’ve divided the winter weather season into seven periods beginning with the first half of December and ending halfway through March (roughly, meteorological winter). Each entry begins with normal temperature ranges, followed by temperature and snowfall predictions, along with accumulation totals and winter weather cancellations and delays for area schools.
Please note that my outlook applies to the region encompassing a roughly 20-mile radius round Adamstown, bounded by northern Berks County to the north; Pottstown and western Montgomery County to the east; Mt. Gretna and eastern Lebanon County to the west; and Paradise and central-southern Lancaster County to the south.
Speaking of the weather, I wanted to share my favorite recent weather-related quote. It was uttered by Danny McBride, who plays Cody, a mulleted pyrotechnics expert in the film Tropic Thunder, when he blows up a row of palm trees: “Mother Nature just pissed her pantsuit!” [A note about Tropic Thunder: I love the film, especially Robert Downey Jr.’s performance in it—he does his best work since his role as Ian in 1985’s Weird Science and as Derek in 1986’s Back to School—but I realize it’s not for everyone. I found its gleeful disregard of propriety intoxicating and Downey’s “400 years” speech made me laugh as hard as anything I’ve ever seen in the movies.] McBride’s phrasing is something I plan to use liberally this winter in endeavoring to explain meteorological anomalies that may arise...
Where was I? Oh, yes. Kind of a lot going on lately. I’ve had a bit of trouble focusing. Back to the Official Monsoon Martin Winter 2008-09 Outlook. There are few really useful climatological clues this season—such as the presence of El Nino or La Niña, neither of which is present in the Pacific this year—so it’s especially difficult to make predictions with any accuracy (particularly regarding precipitation) until just days before the event. But I’m not in the business of equivocation or excuse-making here; I’m about rockin’ this outlook, and rockin’ it hard. Here goes...
First half of December: Average highs are typically in the low to mid 40s, lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
December 1st to 15th will be colder than normal over all, with some nasty wind chills dipping into the teens. I’m fairly confident we’ll see a snow event in the 4-6” range somewhere around the 9th or 10th of the month; temperatures will become a bit milder then toward mid-month.
Winter weather cancellations and delays: Most of us have 10 school days in this period. I’m predicting 1 cancellation and 1 delay.
Second half of December: Average highs are typically in the upper 30s to low 40s, lows in the low to mid 20s.
December 16th to 31st will be average to a bit warmer than normal, and I do not believe we’ll see a “white Christmas” this year.
Winter weather cancellations and delays: Most of us have only 4 to 6 school days in this period. I’m predicting no winter weather-related cancellations or delays.
First half of January: Average highs are typically in the mid to upper 30s, lows in the low 20s.
After a relatively mild start, the bitter cold sets in by around the second week of January. I’m looking for a small to moderate event in the range of 4-6” early on.
Winter weather cancellations and delays: Most of us have 10 school days in this period. I’m predicting 1 cancellation and 2 delays, mainly due to icing problems.
Second half of January: Average highs are typically in the mid to upper 30s, lows in the low 20s.
Colder to begin the second half of the month, with a significant storm in the range of 10-12”, then a “thaw” with milder temperatures to end the month. Winter’s not over yet, though...
Winter weather cancellations and delays: Most of us have 9 school days in this period. I’m predicting 1 cancellation and no delays.
First half of February: Average highs are typically in the upper 30s to low 40s, lows in the low to mid 20s.
We’ll see very cold conditions and a one-two punch of winter weather events: a fairly moderate storm (6-8”) followed by a big snow (in the range of 12-15”) by mid-month, right around Valentine’s Day.
Winter weather cancellations and delays: Most of us have 9 school days in this period. I’m predicting 1 cancellation and 2 delays.
Second half of February: Average highs are typically in the low to mid 40s, lows in the low to mid 20s.
Around average, with a few days of milder “thaw” temperatures: winter’s chill begins to recede and the snow begins to melt, but a couple of freezing rain/sleet/snow events will make travel treacherous and disrupt schedules in the region.
Winter weather cancellations and delays: Most of us have 9 school days in this period. I’m predicting no cancellations and 2 delays.
First half of March (through the Ides): Average highs are typically in the mid to upper 40s, lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
I’m looking for near-average temperatures with a few colder days mixed in. If these colder days coincide with a Nor’easter, we could see a major storm develop in the first or second week of the month; I don’t think the pattern is set up for this right now, though.
Winter weather cancellations and delays: Most of us have 10 school days in this period. I’m predicting no winter weather-related cancellations or delays.
Totals and summary: I’m predicting a very active (and frequently, quite cold) winter, especially when compared with the previous 3 or 4 winters, which featured a dearth of snowfall and milder temperatures than normal over all. Snowfall totals will be in the range of 36-42” generally, with fluctuations within the forecast region I outlined above.
Totting up the winter weather-related cancellations and delays: I think we’ll have 4 cancellations and 7 delays. Hell, we may even have an early dismissal or two, particularly in the active period from mid-January through mid-February.
Mother Nature will most definitely be shitting her wetsuit. Or was it sweating through her pantyhose? Puking in her soup? Ahh yes: pissing in her pantsuit. I’ll get it straight...
Monsoon's Weather Update for Monday, 24 November 2008
Habari mori,
Just a quick update to keep you "in the know" weather-wise...
Monday 11/24: clouds and milder, breezy with rain by late afternoon; some will be heavy. High 45, low 35.
Tuesday 11/25: partly to mostly cloudy with some showers & drizzle early and quite windy; few stray snow showers late and overnight? High 39, low 29.
Wednesday 11/26: breezy and chilly; partly to mostly cloudy. High 40, low 28.
Thursday 11/27: breezy, partly sunny with cloudy periods and some flurries; snow showers overnight? High 40, low 29.
Friday 11/28: chilly, breezy, rain late. High 44, low 36.
Saturday 11/29: clouds and sun, chillier; intermittent rain, especially early. High 43, low 30.
Sunday 11/30: sun mixed with clouds and cooler. High 37, low 26.
Monday 12/1: sunny and chilly. High 37, low 24.
Tuesday 12/2: partly to mostly cloudy with snow, perhaps mixed with rain. High 38, low 22.
Wednesday 12/3: clouds mixed with sunshine and much colder; flurries late? High 35, low 19.
Thursday 12/4: mostly sunny and very cold. High 34, low 18.
Friday 12/5: sunny with increasing clouds late. High 36, low 21.
Next weekend: very cold with snow likely Saturday or Sunday; highs in the low to mid 30s and lows in the low to mid 20s.
Beyond: continued cold with accumulating snow likely sometime during the week of Monday 12/8 through Friday 12/12.