Monsoon's Forecast Update for the Monday-Tuesday event and beyond...
The Monday-Tuesday event has come into sharper focus, so I thought I’d provide an update on that system as well as my thinking on the other winter weather that could affect our region over the next 10 days or so.
Snow and rain arrive by around noon Monday but will change over to all rain (intermittent showers) by Monday afternoon and into the evening. Rain is likely overnight into Tuesday morning, and if snow and ice mix in toward the morning commute, roads could get dicey. (I think plain old rain will predominate and roads will be fine.) There will likely be some rain showers lingering throughout the day on Tuesday, and even on Tuesday night we could see a bit of freezing rain and drizzle.
Adjusted school scheduling projections:
Monday delay, 10%
Monday cancellation, 20%
Monday early dismissal, 35%
Tuesday delay, 40%
Tuesday cancellation, 25%
Wednesday delay, 30%
Wednesday cancellation, 15%
Wednesday 2/24 brings a second event, when we could see snow developing by 8 or 9pm and continuing off and on into Thursday. This snowfall looks as though it will linger into Thursday night and potentially bring us several inches of accumulation. I will monitor this situation closely and provide updates (and cancellation/delay potentials) closer to the event.
There is the potential for passing snow showers and flurries anytime from Friday 2/26 through Sunday 2/28, but these will not be a factor in terms of accumulation or driving hazards.
Beyond that, it’s looking as though the heavy precipitation during the first week of March may coincide with milder temperatures, so the March 3rd-4th event may be all or mostly rain. Thereafter, temperatures plummet again and the pattern sets up for another possible storm.
Stay tuned…
Monsoon’s forecast for the Monday-Tuesday event, including discussion of the March 7th snow-fantasy
While we’re in this mid-February lull in terms of winter precipitation, I thought I’d offer my take on the next few potential winter weather events…
The period from Friday the 19th through Sunday the 21st looks partly cloudy and breezy with highs in the upper 30s to near 40 and a low in the lower 20s.
The Monday the 22nd to Tuesday the 23rd event is a difficult call because of conflicting information thus far regarding storm track and surface temperatures. My sense right now is that we’ll have intermittent snow beginning late Monday morning, mixing with sleet and rain in the afternoon, then intensifying overnight and ending Tuesday morning. Accumulations in the forecast area (central and southern Berks, northern Lancaster) should be light—in the 1-3 inch range. Temperatures stay in the low to mid 30s during the storm. Driving could get a bit dicey, particularly if there is a prolonged period of mixed precipitation.
Cancellation/delay projections:
Monday cancellation, 25%
Monday early dismissal, 55%
Monday delay, 10%
Tuesday delay, 65%
Tuesday cancellation, 15%
As this system comes into sharper focus this weekend, I will send out an update (including revised storm total projections as well as school cancellation and delay potentials).
Thursday the 25th brings the chance for some more snow – this time a bit more than what seems to be in store early in the week. Snow could last much of the day, cancelling schools and accumulating as much as 6-8 inches. Updates to follow.
From March 3rd to the 5th we’re looking at another event, this one a sprawling affair that could involve mixed precipitation and significant accumulation.
The most dominant rumor about upcoming snow has grown out of Reading-area almanac writer Lester Moyer’s notoriety due to a Reading Eagle article about his apparently successful prediction of the two early-February blizzards. The story goes that on March 7th, up to 40 inches of snow will fall; this amount will be compounded by widespread drifting and blowing snow. In Lester’s words, this is going to be “the granddaddy of ‘em all.”
Now, I don’t want to knock this eccentric, prodigiously-bearded local character. And I don’t want to ridicule his forecasting methods, which include studying the phases of the moon and relying heavily on his “gut.” After all, many folks rely on far more esoteric phenomena and deeply-held superstitions to guide their lives—and I’ll admit to the employment of instinct in creating my own forecasts.
But lunar phases and intuition alone cannot predict the weather—and in any case, while almanacs have shown a tolerable ability to see climatological trends, they’ve had a notoriously spotty record at pinpointing actual precipitation events.
It is true that Mr. Moyer did predict two early-February storms in his almanac. But it is also true that he predicted lower-than-normal snowfall for winter 2009-2010—a total of 18 to 20 inches of mostly nuisance snows.
Let me specifically address the 40-inch prediction. Given that snow ratios in March are typically 10:1 (10 inches of snow for every inch of rain, roughly), we’d need four inches of moisture to produce 40 inches of snow. That’s some biblical end-times type scheisse right there. It’s not likely to happen, in other words.
So far, I don’t see this monstrous storm in our future—though, as noted above, the first week of March is setting up favorably for wintry precipitation.
Stay tuned…
Monsoon's Presidents Day Storm Update - Slight Downgrade
I think we’re looking at 3 to 5 inches at most (rather than the 4 to 6 in my previous forecast) for the area. Only about 2 to 3 inches for places south of the PA Turnpike, generally.
Timing is still the same (begins tonight around or just after rush hour; heaviest overnight; a bit of lingering light snow or flurries through late Tuesday morning).
As far as cancellation/delay percentages, there’s a bit of a downgrade there, but they’ll generally hold pretty steady:
Monday early dismissal, 15%
Tuesday delay, 60%
Tuesday cancellation, 35%
Still nothing terribly interesting on the horizon in terms of winter weather--and that's a good thing!
Stay tuned…
Monsoon's Forecast - Presidents Day storm and beyond...
So…do you want the good news first, or the bad news first?
If you’re an optimist, you’d like to get the bad news out of the way so you can focus on the good.
If you’re a realist, you want the good news first because you need to steel yourself for the bad, which you’re convinced will be much more bad than the good news is good.
If you’re a nihilist, nothing matters at all, so the concepts of “good” or “bad” news are meaningless.
If you’re a hedonist, you’re only interested in what can give you pleasure, and therefore you want to revel in the good news and utterly ignore the bad news.
If you’re a Zen Buddhist, you have worked to transcend the concepts of “good” and “bad,” and believe that all things just are; therefore, you welcome any and all pieces of news with equanimity.
If you’re a defeatist, you think there is no good news, so the above question is really just a cruel bait-and-switch.
I could go on. I suppose I’ll do it the old-fashioned way and present the “bad” news first:
We’re getting more snow. Here in the forecast region (Berks, Lancaster) we’ll see all snow from a system that will bring much more mixed precipitation to Philadelphia and areas south and east. Light snow arrives around mid-afternoon Monday and is heaviest later Monday night, then overnight into Tuesday. Snow will taper and end by late Tuesday morning. Some models are suggesting that the snow could linger into Tuesday afternoon, which is potentially a factor in school closings and delays.
For accumulation, I’m going with 4-6 inches in central and southern Berks, Lancaster County, and the north/west suburbs of Philadelphia. A bit more is possible in isolated areas, and especially north of Reading and in Allentown, where folks could see 8 to 10 inches. Wind will kick up on Tuesday afternoon and blustery conditions will be with us into Wednesday.
I know this is a minor to moderate storm in terms of accumulation, but this is falling on top of historic amounts from last week's blizzards, and some back roads are still snow-covered. These factors make this storm potentially something more than a mere nuisance.
Delay and cancellation percentages; most schools have off Monday (including Mifflin), but I'll include it here for those schools using it as a snow make-up day...
Monday cancellation, 10%
Monday early dismissal, 35%
Tuesday delay, 75%
Tuesday cancellation, 40%
On Wednesday 2/17 and for the remainder of the week, we’ll see partly sunny conditions with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the upper teens to low 20s.
Cloudy and milder for the weekend with highs in the upper 30s (and perhaps some snow flurries or showers on Sunday), but I think we’re going to miss the accumulating snow that seemed destined to drop more on us.
Next week looks cold to begin with highs struggling to reach the freezing mark, but high temperatures will rise into the upper 30s and perhaps low 40s (!) by week’s end.
A bit of a warm-up will welcome us into March.
Here’s the good news I promised: this may be our last accumulating snowfall of the season.
But…stay tuned for updates.
Monsoon's Storm Shots for 10 February 2010
Well, the snow is over now and I've gone out and taken my measurements. As it turns out, I'm a bit husky.
Sorry, I couldn't resist.
Anywho, my measurements in the yard yielded a snow total of 22 inches. Together with the 20 inches that fell here in Adamstown this past weekend (during "snowmageddon"), that's three and a half feet of snow in five days.
I can't even put that into perspective. But, of course, I'll try. It's ten inches over the average annual snowfall around here. Philadelphia, which gets an average of 20 inches of snow annually, had 63 inches of snow in the past four winters combined. This winter has already broken the record (65.5 inches in 1995-96) with 70 inches. And we're not finished.
Schools will be closed tomorrow throughout the region (we've already gotten the calls) as everyone tries to clean up from the onslaught.
I could go on. But I'll just share some pictures instead in the hope that they can convey this event better than I...
Bunk rests on the chair whilst the snow falls earlier today; after each visit outside to do "business," Bunk returned with snow encrusted into his legs, his undercarriage, even his ears, necessitating 10-15 minutes with the hair dryer...after which he is quite tuckered.
Snow accumulation / driftage at the front door.
A four-foot-high drift / shoveling depository next to our walk; there is a bush under there somewhere.
The tree, snow-covered; the concrete deer behind it is completely obscured by the snow.
A five-foot snow pile next to our driveway; in the background is our largely-unplowed road.
One more pic, taken today from our driveway. No, friends, that's not a photo-negative of Kid from Kid 'N Play rocking the hi-top fade.
That's our deer, buried. In the foreground is a five-foot snow mound that makes the driveway feel like a highway cattle chute.
The roads around northern Lancaster County are pretty bad, and in many places plowing is just beginning. Secondary and more rural roads are especially dicey, as are many parking lots.
Friday school scheduling potentials...
Chance of cancellation for Mifflin (Act 80 Day): 40%
Chance of delay for Mifflin: 20%
Chance of cancellation for the rest of the county (regular school day): 35%
Chance of delay for the rest of the county: 65%
I'm keeping an eye on Monday's storm, and what else lies ahead (there are at least two more storms that could affect us after that)...
Monsoon
Monsoon's Snowbound In-Storm Observations
It’s still snowing heavily here in northern Lancaster County as of 4pm, and my very kind neighbor just made another pass with the snowblower.
We’ve got 16 inches of snow on the ground here and things won’t wrap up until at least 8 or 9pm. The low pressure looks to be stalling off the coast and prolonging the snowfall, so we may actually see widespread totals above 20 inches and even approaching two feet by the end of this event.
Other Pennsylvania storm totals as of mid-afternoon include Mohnton (16 inches), Lititz (17 inches), and Dover (20 inches). [Remember to send me your snow totals and I’ll share them on the weblog.]
Seasonal records for snowfall have been set all over the place. President Obama, who coined a new term (“Snowmageddon”) to describe this past weekend’s event, will have to come up with another one.
Conditions are bad out there, and will continue to deteriorate. Major highways (including 80, 81, 83, 78, and 76) have been closed due to poor road conditions and diminished visibility. The weight of the snow is a danger to those shoveling it; in addition there have been roof collapses and other structural damage reports in Delaware, where more than 50 inches of snow (!) have fallen in the past week.
Winds are also becoming a problem, with reports of 15-20mph winds and higher gusts in the immediate forecast area. Wind speed is expected to reach 20-25mph with gusts near 40mph throughout the evening—look for whiteout conditions, downed trees, and possible power outages.
As it stands, we’ve gotten a mind-boggling three feet of the stuff here in Adamstown since 2/5. Daaaaaamn…
Updated school cancellation/delay projections for tomorrow…
Chance of cancellation, Thursday 2/11/10: 85%.
Chance of delay, Thursday 2/11/10: 30%.
[When will we clean all this up? I don’t think two hours Thursday morning is going to cut it; a cancellation seems pretty likely.]
Wouldn’t it be nice if this storm marked the end of winter? I think even the most snow-rabid among us would admit to some fatigue with the stuff by now. (On a personal note, I love forecasting winter weather, especially with these big, dramatic storms and historic snow totals. But even I’m getting a little tired of this!)
And yet, there’s more.
Monday 2/15 to Tuesday 2/16: snow overnight Monday into Tuesday morning could disrupt school schedules and make travel treacherous once again. This is five days away so it’s difficult to make snowfall projections, but it appears this one will likely be in the range of 6-8 inches.
Saturday 2/20 to Sunday 2/21: another one is setting up for this period, but it is far too early to even take a stab at totals, etc.
No real warm-ups anytime soon, either—highs hovering around freezing for the foreseeable future—so these giant mounds will be with us for a while.
Stay tuned……
Monsoon's call for the Tuesday-Wednesday storm
The Tuesday-Wednesday system is looking impressive. Snow totals will not rival those of this past weekend, but they won't be terribly far behind. (Jeez – could we get a nice, moderate 4-6 inch snowstorm this winter?)
The storm (a bona fide Nor’easter) will actually hit us in two waves. Here’s what to expect. A reminder that timing and snowfall predictions are for Berks and northern Lancaster Counties unless otherwise specified.
Light snow arrives Tuesday by 5 or 6pm. A few inches will accumulate, then there’ll be a lull early Wednesday morning. School administrators should not be deceived by this break, however, into thinking that it’s all over with. Quite the contrary.
The second round of precipitation will crank up around morning rush Wednesday or a bit later and continue right through Wednesday evening rush. From this second round alone we could see 9 inches of accumulation. Snow tapers and ends by Wednesday evening.
The second "round" of the storm, right around midday Wednesday.
But here, my snow-besieged friends, is where it really gets fun. By mid-morning on Wednesday, the northwest winds will crank up, reaching their height (sustained winds in the 20-25mph range, gusting past 40mph) on Wednesday afternoon and evening. What these near-blizzard conditions portend for us is blowing, drifting, extremely poor visibility, and power outages—not to mention wind chills plunging into the lower teens—right when we’re trying to clean up this mess. This wind—plus the dumping of a foot of snow on top of the foot and a half most of us got just a few days ago—may extend delays and cancellations in Thursday.
Accumulation:
It's looking like 12-16 inches for Reading and northern Lancaster County. A bit more toward south-central Pennsylvania in places like Columbia and York—perhaps approaching 20 inches again! Less in north Jersey and the coasts (on the coasts, there could be a mix) and toward the Poconos—4 to 6 inches at most in these areas.
Cancellation/delay potentials:
|
Tuesday |
Early Dismissal 20% |
|
Wednesday |
Delay 25%; Cancellation 90% |
|
Thursday |
Delay 75%; Cancellation 55% |
Whew. Stay tuned, as always, for updates on this extraordinary winter weather!
Monsoon on midweek storm, delay and cancellation projections
Tonight will be extremely cold with lows getting down into the single digits, and temperatures will only be in the teens well through Monday morning rush, so all the meltage from today will be well frozen over. Use caution and see my cancellation/delay predictions below…
Here are some central and southeastern Pennsylvania weekend storm totals per readers:
|
Brookhaven |
26.5” |
|
Adamstown |
20” |
|
Littlestown |
26” |
|
Lancaster |
19” |
|
Kirkwood |
24” |
|
Douglassville |
18” |
|
Norristown |
23” |
|
Sinking Spring |
18” |
|
Nolde Forest |
22.5” |
|
Myerstown |
18” |
|
New Cumberland |
22” |
|
North Wales |
18” |
|
Shillington |
21” |
|
State College |
15” |
|
Upper Merion |
21” |
|
Temple |
11” |
Believe it or not, before we can even catch our collective breath from the walloping we took from the weekend blizzard, another system is poised to affect our area on Tuesday into Wednesday. Here’s the forecast…
Snow develops mid- to late-afternoon Tuesday, light at first. Intensifying by 8pm, then continuing overnight and into late Wednesday afternoon, tapering to scattered snow showers Wednesday evening. (The bulk of the snowfall is early Wednesday morning through early Wednesday afternoon, and watch for high winds on Wednesday as well.)
Though model guidance is not yet in agreement, my call is that we’ll see 8 to 10 inches out of this storm—maybe even a foot. On top of the snow totals from this weekend’s blizzard, that would be positively crippling.
Revised cancellation/delay predictions for the coming week:
Monday 2/8: Cancellation 60%; Delay 85%. (It’s just nasty out there, and lots of roads are still snow-covered. Many families in our districts are dealing with 1 ½ to 2 feet of snow will insufficient resources to deal with the onslaught. Even with the melting that happened today thanks to the brilliant sunshine, frigid temperatures overnight will cause “black ice” on even the clearest of surfaces.)
Tuesday 2/9: Cancellation 10%; Delay 15%; Early dismissal 25%. (The snow will not begin in earnest until Tuesday evening, so I don’t really see that an early dismissal will become necessary. Then again, I didn’t think we at Mifflin would get an early dismissal on Friday, either…)
Wednesday 2/10: Cancellation 85%; Delay 20%. (Unless the timing or storm track change dramatically, a delay just wouldn’t make sense. A cancellation, on the other hand, would.)
Thursday 2/11: Cancellation 40%; Delay 90%. (Wind and temperatures again in the teens overnight into Thursday could lead to a treacherous Thursday-morning commute.)
Friday 2/12: Cancellation 15%; Delay 20%. (It’ll still be cold, but temperatures may inch above freezing. It’s a relief, too, because otherwise Mifflin’s Act 80 full day on Friday would be disrupted…)
Stay tuned for updates/tweakage on this forecast.
Monsoon makes Hasselhoff discovery
My good people,
First, let me say that I realize the recent dramatic uptick in Hasselhovian content on my weblog may have been a little much to take--particularly as my latest Hoff post provided a nearly unfiltered gaze into the fantastical (and fanatical) workings of my mind.
And yet, I beg your indulgence for one more moment or two.
For in my internet travels, I discovered a six-part reality/documentary series called "Meet the Hasselhoffs" which ran on Britain's Living channel beginning in September 2009. In the series, David and his Hoffspring (daughters Hayley and Taylor-Ann) travelled to England and pal around with popular British disc jockey Scott Mills, who takes them on all sorts of wild adventures.
It's all you could hope or want from such a show, and it provides a sort of preview of what we can expect from the upcoming A&E Hoff-centered reality show. Episode 1, Part 1 appears embedded below; the further segments can be found in the related video sidebar at the YouTube page.
Monsoon's Weekend Blizzard Debriefing; Look Ahead to Next Storm
Now that’s what I call a frickin’ snowstorm. My predictions were admittedly conservative, and it turned out that the projected totals were low by as many as six to eight inches in some places. And New York City didn’t get a damned thing.
But wow. Bunk has been traipsing and galumphing through shoulder-deep snow in the backyard and returning to the house with frosty little snow blossoms caked to his coat.
Snow totals, based on my own observations and unofficial reports around the region:
Allentown, extreme northern Berks, and points north, 8-12 inches
Northern Lancaster County, central and southern Berks, 18-20 inches
Philadelphia and immediate suburbs, DC, Baltimore, 24-26 inches; a bit more in some areas
Delaware, northern Maryland, extreme northern Virginia, and extreme southern Pennsylvania, well over 24 inches. Up to 30 inches have been reported in some areas, and there have even been measurements that exceed 2 ½ feet. Boggles the mind.
[Please email me with your storm totals and locations and I’ll post them on my next weblog entry.]
The view out my window toward the deck at 7:30 this morning, before the snow was even finished
Even though the snow has ended across the forecast area by mid-afternoon Saturday, ongoing problems from this storm will be continuing strong winds, which will result in drifting (we have a couple of two-foot drifts here at Monsoon Central), collapsed roofs, downed power lines, and fallen limbs, trees and shrubbery. The temperature will dip into the lower teens tonight, sending the accumulated snowfall into a deep freeze.
Sunday 2/7: partly sunny with moderate winds; high 29, low 11.
Monday 2/8: plenty of sunshine and cold; high 32, low 16.
Tuesday 2/9: cloudy with snow possible (discussed below); high 31, low 25.
Wednesday 2/10: cloudy with considerable winds and lingering snow possible (see below); high 28, low 19.
Thursday 2/11 and Friday 2/12: partly to mostly sunny and milder with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the upper teens.
Saturday 2/13: a bit of snow possible, but nothing like this monster.
A bit of a thaw may be in store by the 20th to the 22nd.
Most forecasters (including this one) have been paying little attention to the Tuesday-Wednesday event, having been preoccupied for some days with this blizzard. But on first blush, here’s my call: the snow begins Tuesday afternoon and continues intermittently through the evening and overnight. Some flurries or snow showers may linger into Wednesday. The snow will not be nearly as heavy as the event that just wrapped up, but I think it’ll leave 4 to 6 inches of accumulation in Berks and northern Lancaster Counties.
All of this—the blizzard, the drifting, the historic storm totals, and the midweek storm—make for a potentially shaky schedule this week. Here are my calls…
Monday 2/8: Cancellation 60%; Delay 80%. (I can see the buses trying to navigate some of the far reaches of my district, unplowed and heavily drifted, and it’s not pretty.)
Tuesday 2/9: Cancellation 30%; Delay 15%; Early Dismissal 40%.
Wednesday 2/10: Cancellation 55%; Delay 75%.
Thursday 2/11: Cancellation 10%; Delay 20%.
As always, stay tuned for updates!
Monsoon's Weekend Snow Update
Arrival looks like 2-3pm (and then it will be light, wet snow that will—since surface temps will be above freezing—melt on contact with the roadway). The real driving hazards will come in the evening when the temperature drops below freezing and black ice develops—and, of course, when the snow intensifies toward 7-8pm. Heaviest snow in our area will fall overnight, from about 12midnight to 4am. Snow is over by about 6 or 7pm Saturday evening.
Considering all that, I’m downgrading the chance of an early school dismissal for the Reading-Lancaster area to 25%. (If we were in Virginia or even Maryland, I think we’d be getting out early.)
A blizzard is defined by the National Weather Service as a storm sustained winds or frequent gusts of at least 35mph, resulting in drifting snow and less than a quarter-mile visibility for more than three hours. We’ll have winds of 15-20mph with gusts up to 30mph overnight and into Saturday morning, so that nearly qualifies. (Places closer to the shores will have actual blizzard conditions due to strong coastal winds.) Visibility will be a problem too.
Projected storm totals:
Delaware, Maryland, Baltimore-D.C. area…20-24 inches.
Philadelphia, southern Chester and Lancaster Counties, central Jersey… 14-18 inches.
Philadelphia’s northern and western suburbs, Reading and Berks, northern Lancaster County, York and Harrisburg…8-12 inches.
Allentown and northern New Jersey, as well as New York City…6 inches.
Poconos and extreme north Jersey…2-4 inches.
Totals may be higher in some spots due to “thundersnow” or heavy bands of precipitation in which 2-3 inches may fall in a single hours. And in any case, depth will be difficult to ascertain given the extensive drifting.
I will send storm updates this weekend as necessary…
Have fun and please—consider staying off the roads for tonight and much of tomorrow if you can. If you must drive, use the utmost caution.
Monsoon's Snowcast for Friday to Saturday
Monsoon’s SnowTable Deluxe
Berks – Lancaster, Friday 2/5/10 to Saturday 2/6/10
Stay tuned this evening or tomorrow morning for updates when and if they're needed...
|
STARTS |
Early afternoon Friday, light snow |
|
ENDS |
Heaviest snow overnight into Saturday morning; tapering by late afternoon Saturday |
|
RATE |
Light to moderate through 7pm Friday; heavy overnight; moderate Saturday morning & afternoon; light through rest of afternoon |
|
DRIVING |
Potentially slippery Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon; high winds and drifting will reduce visibility on Saturday & Saturday night. Even Sunday morning may be dicey after a refreeze. Bottom line: stay in |
|
MIX |
Maybe a bit at the coasts; for us, there should be no mixing. Expect heavy, wet snow |
|
AMOUNT |
Track has shifted a bit south, but we’ll still see significant accumulation here. The conservative call is 6-10 inches with a bit more possible in isolated areas |
|
ELSEWHERE |
Philadelphia and points south—as well as Chester and southern Lancaster Counties, and places in northern Delaware and Maryland—can expect 14-18 inches of accumulation, and a bit more in isolated spots; central Pennsylvania and points north will receive a bit less than we will in Reading/Lancaster (maybe 4-6 inches) |
|
BUST |
“Bust potential” – the chance we could get little or no snow – is fairly low for this one, but a shift in storm track farther to the south could result in only 5-6 inches |
|
AFTERMATH |
Drifting throughout Saturday and freezing overnight (temperatures will get into the teens) will make things potentially dicey. Temperatures won’t rise above freezing until late next week, so this won’t be going away anytime soon |
|
SCHOOL |
Early dismissal Friday: 40% Delay Monday: 30% |
|
NEXT ONE |
Tuesday night into Wednesday; not a huge storm, but timing could result in school closures |
|
STAY TUNED |
For updates later today and Friday morning when and if my thinking changes |
Snow potential update: tonight and this weekend
I’ll get right into it.
Tuesday night to Wednesday morning storm: clouds develop throughout the day today; flurries and brief snow showers may appear as early as 5pm. The bulk of the precipitation from about 8 or 9pm tonight through about 5 or 6am tomorrow morning. The snow will generally be light and intermittent, so we shouldn’t expect huge accumulations here: a half-inch to an inch and a half. There may be a bit of slipperiness on the roads, but this is a wetter snow (falling onto a higher-temperature surface) than what we saw last Thursday morning, so many major roads should just be wet. Still, some back roads and untreated surfaces could be dicey.
Possibility of cancellation Wednesday: 10%
Possibility of delay Wednesday: 45%
Friday into Saturday storm: this thing has the potential to be big. A massive area of moisture is poised to affect the region on Friday evening into Saturday morning. A lot will depend on the storm track, but unlike the storm that just grazed Pennsylvania this past weekend, the track sets up somewhat more favorably for us. If it all falls right, we could be looking at a storm comparable in size to December 19th. I’ll keep an eye on it and send updates as this thing comes into clearer focus…
This massive area of moisture has the potential to affect our area with a significant winter storm on Friday into Saturday.
Monsoon's quick update re: February snow potential
Just a few words about the next couple of weeks and what they could bring in terms of wintry precipitation. After all, February is the snowiest month of the year in this area (though in some locales nearby, January edges it out). Here’s what to expect…
Tuesday 2/2 to Wednesday 2/3: I’m looking at a moisture-starved system winging by from Tuesday evening to the Wednesday morning rush hour. Overwhelming evidence suggests that we’ll see just intermittent snow showers and flurries, but there’s a chance we could get a couple inches. I’ll update if I develop any more certainty about what we’re in store for.
Friday 2/5 to Sunday 2/7: Another round of moisture comes through from the south and west late Friday night through Sunday afternoon. Right now, model guidance is scattered on the track and intensity of the snow we might see. My best educated guess is that we’ll see snow showers on Saturday and Sunday with low accumulations and driving hazards only on Saturday night. Some rain could mix in, particularly as temperatures rise on Sunday.
Sunday 2/14 to Monday 2/15: The middle of February has historically been an active period (think, especially, 2003), and it looks like this year will be no different. There are indications that we could see a blockbuster around this time.
Stay tuned for updates…and as always, thanks for reading!
Hasselhoff to star in new television show; Monsoon on tenterhooks
It’s been some time since I’ve mentioned the World’s Greatest Entertainer in this space—in fact, I had to go back to my pre-blogging days (when I used to send out my ramblings via email newsletter) to find any sustained discussion of this man. Well, it’s about damned time I brought you the latest about this living legend.
I am talking, of course, about David Michael Hasselhoff.
I’m not sure why it’s been so long since I have done a Hoff-focused piece. Maybe it was the video of his drunk, incoherent, and shirtless self, seated on the floor of a hotel room, trying in pathetic vain (and with plainly impaired dexterity) to consume a burger—a video shot by his daughter and reportedly released by his ex-wife—that kept me mum.
A still frame from the video in question; despite appearances, I SWEAR TO YOU that burger is going in and not coming up.
Maybe I was moved to silence by his several-season stint on the putrid, overblown NBC summer freakfest “American’s Got Talent”—which could not even by redeemed by his élan, his witticisms, or The Hoff’s annual live performance which would be the highlight of each season finale. (Here's a video clip of last year's performance.)
But, friends, Der Hasselhunk is about to break out the box—in a big way. He is poised to, once again, take his rightful place atop the entertainment throne.
Two weeks ago, Sir David, Knight of Hard Bodies announced that he was leaving “America’s Got Talent” in order to “be able to follow my dream to do my own TV show, which will be announced very shortly,” as he told the grey lady of gossip rags, People Magazine. “AGT” has already hired the wanky baldster Howie Mandel, formerly of the dimwitted game show “Deal or No Deal,” as Hasselhoff’s replacement.
[Tongues were wagging straight away in speculation that Hasselhott was actually fired from “AGT” for being drunk on the job, and these naysayers pointed to recent struggles he’s had with alcoholism as proof. Why else, the thinking goes, would he quit a top-ranked summer show at the height of its popularity? But of his three hospitalizations last year purportedly for alcohol poisoning—in May, September, and November 2009—only one was verifiably tied to his drinking.]
I reject this wanton conjecture, this scurrilous scandalmongering, my good people, and choose instead to focus on the future: David Hasselhoff will soon be on the TEE-vee in his very own show. It got me to thinking…what might this show be? Or is it still in development? Or is he entertaining several competing offers?
I hereby breathlessly offer here my top pitches for Hasselhovian television programming:
- “Hoff the Cuff.” In the tradition of “Shatner’s Raw Nerve” on the Biography Channel starring the “Star Trek” and “Private Practice” star, this series will feature awkward, one-on-one conversations between the Hasselhost and his celebrity subject. Suggestions for interview subjects include Luke Perry, Neil Diamond, Kiefer Sutherland, and Stephen Hawking. (You see, given his egomania, it’s important to find guests with whom Hasselhoff can bond over a common trait or experience. In the above list, it’s having perfect hair; gaining wild popularity as a musician and international sex symbol; starring in a number-one action-adventure series; and employing a staggering intelligence to probe the mysteries of theoretical cosmology and spatial relativity.)
- A remake, or more accurately a continuation, of the show “Baywatch Nights.” This criminally underrated series spun the Mitch Buchannon “Baywatch” lifeguard by day into a private detective by night. It co-starred Angie Harmon, Lou Rawls, and Gregalan Williams and was really rather good. The show sought to embody the casual sensibilities of the greatest detective show ever (“The Rockford Files”) in an L.A.-after-dark milieu. They could even bring back Angie Harmon (even though she’s a Republican who had publicly said she’d support Sarah Palin for President in 2012) and Gregalan Williams, though Lou Rawls has been unavailable since his death in 2006.
“Get it Hoff your Chest.” A double pun here in the title, since Hunk-o-hoff is renowned for his barrel chest, his rock-hard pecs, and the lustrous fur that adorns his torso. This is a talk show—which may seem like a step backward for Hasselhoff, but it comes with a twist: anyone willing to come on the show and confess to a betrayal or outright crime on-air will be eligible to win a prize. The David will employ his trademark tact and sensitivity to shepherd the guests through the resultant emotional minefield. - “Show Hoff.” Ordinary people are invited on to show the extraordinary things they can do: play “Yankee Doodle” on a nostril flute; stilt-walk through an out-of-control bonfire; perform an eye operation blindfolded and only using one’s feet; perform a flawless rendition of Beethoven’s Symphony No. 5 using only flatulent and eructative emanations. It’s kind of a cross between “The Gong Show,” “That’s Incredible!” and “America’s Got Talent,” except “Show Hoff” would have the good sense not to cheapen the word “talent” by applying it to a family of Irish dancers (or more impressively, would not even allow said dancers through the stage door).
- “Piss Hoff!” On BBC. It’s a hidden camera show, hosted and orchestrated by Hasselhoff, on which the marks can earn money and prizes by keeping their cool in the face of pranksters and provocateurs. Kind of a cross between “Punk’d” and MTV’s “Boiling Points.”
“Hoff by That Much.” It’s a sitcom, which is the one performance genre Hasselhoff has yet to conquer. In this series—about a divorced, 40-something (he can pass for it!) dad raising six troubled foster kids on his own—David will display a razor-sharp sense of comedic timing and earn near-universal praise for his chops. Liam Neeson will stun Hollywood by accepting the role of Hoff’s zany, eccentric neighbor Herman; Lorraine Bracco shines as Hasselhoff’s tart-tongued ex-wife and (in a madcap twist) boss at the ad agency where he works.- Yet another spin-off (or here, spin-hoff?) of the CSI franchise. This one is called “CSI: Pasadena” and stars Hasselhoff as the lead investigator, Meshach Taylor (of “Designing Women” and Mannequin semi-fame) as his saucy partner, and Nancy McKeon (of “The Facts of Life” and subsequently, of made-for-television movies) as the sassy forensic lab technician and Hoff’s on-again-hoff-again love interest. I smell a hit!
- A reality show in the vein of “Denise Richards: It’s Complicated” and “Being Bobby Brown” entitled “Don’t Hassel the Hoff.” (The title comes from a popular t-shirt featuring his moniker, which he co-opted for the American release of his autobiography back in 2006. The series will air on A&E or TV Land and will feature the dizzying day-to-day hi-jinks and manufactured crises that comprise his “real” life, plus a generous helping of his daughters (ages 19 and 17) as they embark on teen-pop careers, aided by their ultra-supportive dad. Possible alternate titles include “Hoff and Running,” “Hoff the Hook,” and the simple, yet elegant, “Hasselhoff.”
Of course, when he made his announcement, he very coyly failed to specify whether the show would be featured on American television. It could be that he’ll be the star of a new series to be aired where his genius is most appreciated: Germany. Of course, he’d have to pick up a little bit more of the language, but he’s got it in him. Here are some very real possibilities…
- “Hoffnung.” This word—which bears an etymological kinship to its star’s moniker—literally means “Hope.” The David will host a one-hour series inspired by the likes of “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” and the Make-a-Wish Foundation. In it, he will visit the moderately depressed and slightly challenged, easing their minor troubles by singing them songs and shadowing them for a week. Each participant gets an “I’m with the Hoff” t-shirt—in Germany, it might be rendered “Ich spaziergang mit den Hoff”—to commemorate the easing of his or her vague malaise or nagging toe-ache.
- “Hoff Tanztastisch!” This word blends the verb tanzen (to dance) with the adjective fantasticsch (take a guess) to produce the delightful title of this song-and-dance variety show. Featuring guest comedians, actors, and entertainers from the bustling world of German show business, “Tanztastisch!” will contractually include at least two full-length performances by The Hoff—one auf Deutsch—and at least eight minutes of airtime picturing The Pecsational One with his tucked shirt unbuttoned to the navel, revealing his hairy chest.
- “Der Hasselhoff Verschiedenartigkeitsspektakel.” This translates to “The Hasselhoff Variety Show” and is essentially an alternate title for the show described above.
- “Haariges Hoffbrust mit den Glänzender Schönheit.” It’s a refinement of the variety hour, more pointedly sensual and more demographically specific. The title translates roughly to “Hairy Hoff-Chest with the Glistening Beauty” and will consist of nothing but a full hour of … what the title describes.
- “Der Fall der Berliner Mauer.” This show, which translates to “The Fall of the Berlin Wall,” grows out of Hasselhoff’s own oft-repeated claims that he felled the Berlin Wall with his 1989 concert there. (The concert was actually right after the wall fell, but his single “Looking for Freedom” was at the top of the German charts at the time it came down. So clearly he has a claim.) Anywho, in this lighthearted homage twenty years on, David counsels troubled couples—one of whom grew up in West Berlin, one in East Berlin—and helps them tear down the wall of anger that divides them. It could work.
Breaking news, for those few of you who are actually still reading this: Last week it was announced that, in fact, David Hasselhoff will be starring in an as-yet-untitled new reality series on A&E which will follow his life and his daughters’ burgeoning pop careers. The series will begin airing sometime later in 2010.
I cannot wait.
Flashback: Monsoon Hasselhoff's "Looking for Freedom" Forecast
My good people...
In the description of this weblog, you have been promised "Forecasting, Minutae, Jibba-Jabba, and Hoffophilia." In the first two years of its existence, there has been a glut of the first three and a regrettable dearth of Hasselhovian content.
That is about to change.
In anticipation of a post currently in the works following the jouncing pecs of The Hoff's life and career, here is one of the first pieces in which I declared my strange love for Sir Chisel of Hairwicke. It's from April 25, 2005 and was disseminated via email, in the old-school fashion, years prior to this weblog's genesis. And it follows below, enhanced with weblinks.
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Monsoon Hasselhoff’s “Looking for Freedom” Forecast
Monday, 25 April 2005
The entertainment dynamo known simply as The Hoff was born David Michael Hasselhoff born July 17, 1952 in Baltimore, Maryland.
The Greatest Photo Ever Taken; foreground, L to R, Gary Coleman and David Hasselhoff; background, KITT
David Hasselhoff, of course, is a multifaceted, multitalented conquistador of stage, small screen, and song. His distinguished television career has been distinguished (so far) by three unforgettable roles: Dr. Snapper Foster on “The Young and the Restless” in the 1970s; Michael Knight (and a memorable turn as the goateed evil twin Garthe Knight) on “Knight Rider” in the 1980s; and Mitch Buchannon on “Baywatch” in the late 1980s to early 90s (Mitch was also spun off onto the underappreciated early-90s adventure drama “Baywatch Nights,” co-starring Gregalan Williams, Angie Harmon and Lou Rawls).
Hoff as Garthe Knight; Garthe once growled: “Michael Knight is a living, breathing insult to my existence.”
His theatre career has recently included roles in the American production of “Jekyll and Hyde” and a leading role in the London production of “Chicago.”
But it is The Hoff’s music career that truly sets him apart as a triple-threat and one of the seminal artists of our time. He busted onto the scene with 1985’s Night Rocker (“I am the night rocker; I wanna rock you in my song.”). He has since released more than a dozen albums in Germany, the only place his true greatness has been acknowledged. The David has achieved the popularity of a Michael Jackson or Tom Jones in Germany. Most recently he released David Hasselhoff Sings America in 2004 and The Night Before Christmas this past November.
From “Flying on the Wings of Tenderness”:
We’re flying on the wings of tenderness
Riding the rivers of gentleness
Into the garden of love we’ll flow and watch it grow together
We’ll build a castle out of honesty
Fill every room with the harmony
Seeing the world trough each other’s eyes
We’ll live our lives together…
In 1994 His Hoffness decided to make a run at the musical stardom that had so eluded him in his homeland. He released a self-titled American “debut” album and hooked up a sweet Pay-Per-View star-studded concert event.
Based on eyewitness accounts (and the opinion of the Hoff himself), he rocked. I mean—he rocked the house like the house had not theretofore been rocked. He left the stage, though, and members of his management team inexplicably wore long faces. “What gives? I rocked it hard,” intoned the breathless David, who had truly “left it all onstage.” It was then that he saw a television—tuned to the live O.J. Simpson white bronco chase. Alas, while the hirsute Hoffmeister was delivering a mind-blowing concert to signal his triumphant emergence onto the American music stage, America was watching a slow-speed chase that would kick off the “trial of the century”—and not his performance. Ach!
His Bemulleted Grace played “Looking for Freedom” at Berlin Wall, New Year’s Eve 1989, to celebrate its crumbling. Hasselhoff himself feels his popularity in Germany was instrumental in bringing down the Berlin Wall and ending the Cold War: “I find it a bit sad that there is no photo of my hanging on the walls in the Berlin Museum at Checkpoint Charlie.”
It was rumored that he was going to release a rap album with Ice-T, but these rumors, tantalizing though they were, proved to be false.
The Hoff once gushed about one of his wildly popular projects: “Beyond its entertainment value, ‘Baywatch’ has enriched and, in many cases, helped save lives. I'm looking forward to the opportunity to continue with a project which has had such a significance for so many.”
On a similar note, commenting on the monumental impact his worldwide stardom—nay, superstardom—has had on children: “There are many dying children out there whose last wish is to meet me.”
Regarding his cameo in the film Spongebob Squarepants: “I've gone from talking to a car to swimming with Pamela Anderson to starring with a sponge.” The David also had a cameo in the film Dodgeball as a German soccer coach.
And finally, in the following oft-repeated quote, The Buff One manages to cram an astounding four clichés into one statement: “Keep smiling! Believe in yourself and never give up; dreams will come true.” And indeed they have: In 1996, His Hairiness received a star on Hollywood’s Walk of Fame.
One of Der Hoff’s most well-known and finely-crafted songs is the German language “Du”—a portion of which I have included (and translated) here for you all:
Du bist alles, was ich habe auf der welt,
Du bist alles, was ich will.
Du, du allein kannst mich versteh’n,
Du, du darfst nie mehr von mir geh’n.
Du, ich will dir etwas sagen
Was ich noch zu keinem anderen mädchen gesagt habe,
Ich hab’ dich lieb, ja ich hab’ dich lieb
Und ich will dich immer lieb haben
Immer, immer nur dich.
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You are all I have in this world,
You are all I want.
You! You alone can understand me,
You! You may never go away from me.
You…I will say something to you
That I have said to no other girl,
I love you; yes, I love you
And I will always love you
Always, always for only you.
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Monsoon's Forecast and Weekend Storm Update
Light snow showers and flurries early this morning have given us a nice coating on the roads – I have been hearing reports of slipping and skidding, particularly on back roads. Definitely a little more than I anticipated, and we can expect intermittent light snow throughout the morning. Look for the wind to kick up—and may be even a few peeks of sunshine—later this afternoon. Very cold tonight with an overnight low in the mid teens.
As for this weekend’s snow event: we will get nothing. The damned thing is going south, so Pennsylvania and New Jersey will see no snow at all (so Nicole, that child’s first birthday party is on like Donkey Kong!). The Virginias could still see six to eight inches. But again: we’re in the clear, so your weekend plans are safe.
And really, as Melissa pointed out, isn’t weekend snow just a cruel, cruel mockery for a teacher?
Friday will be partly cloudy, windy and markedly colder, with a high only in the mid 20s and a low in the low teens.
Saturday is looking clear and even colder, with a high of 23 and a low of 10 (single-digit lows will appear in isolated areas).
Sunday will still be cold, but not as cold, with the high reaching a balmy 31. We’ll inch above freezing on Monday, and we’ll see highs in the upper 30s throughout the first week of February.
Next winter weather that could impact us: I see nothing on the horizon. Nothing! Does this mean “winter” is over? Not a chance.
Monsoon's Forecast and Weekend Storm Outlook
Whew! That was some storm on Sunday and Monday: more than an inch of rain fell in most places, and the wind wrought havoc, causing downed limbs and power outages all over the place. In the Susquehanna basin, where nearly two inches fell, flood warnings in nearby counties remain in effect until late Wednesday. If this had been snow, some places could have been looking at more than a foot.
Speaking of which…
It’s still 72 hours out from the weekend snow event, but if everything falls right, we could be in for significant snowfall. Here’s my preliminary call, to be updated later this week as more information comes in:
The low tonight will get down into the mid 20s with diminishing winds.
Wednesday will be cooler with plenty of sunshine; the high will struggle to reach 40. Low in the mid 20s.
On Thursday we’ll see similar conditions, but some clouds will move through in the afternoon and evening, which may be accompanied by a passing snow shower. No biggie. High 41, low 20.
Friday will be partly sunny and markedly colder to start; the high will reach only 29. If we do get snow, it will not begin until 5 or 6pm. Right now I’m looking at a period of heavy snow overnight Friday into Saturday afternoon, bookended on Friday evening and Saturday evening by flurries and light snow.
Snow ratios with this storm could be impressive, with the temperature in the teens during the bulk of the storm.
[In brief, snow ratio refers to the amount of liquid precipitation equivalent to the snowfall. For example, with a pretty typical snow ratio of 10:1, ten inches of snow would be produced from roughly one inch of liquid. A “wet” snow has a lower snow ratio; a “dry” or fluffy snow has a higher snow ratio. For this storm, ratios would be in the range of 15:1 or 20:1, and so far model runs suggest that between three-quarters of an inch and one inch of moisture will fall. So, as those of you who are math whizzes have already figured out: that’s in the range of 12 to 20 inches of snow.]
This is all very preliminary, and the models don’t all agree on this solution. The track could be farther south (and some indications suggest this could happen) and give us fairly little, instead whomping the Philadelphia region and points south. The system could fail to tap into sufficient moisture as expected and give us lighter stuff.
This moisture--which will be centered over Texas and Oklahoma on Thursday night--could give us a significant snowstorm on Friday night into Saturday.
Right now, it’s looking good for fairly heavy, visibility-reducing, plan-cancelling snow on Friday evening, overnight into Saturday afternoon. Best chance right now for us in Berks and northern Lancaster Counties is somewhere in the range of eight inches, maybe ten. (Obviously, given the projected timing, this wouldn't affect school schedules.) Stay tuned for updates!
Sunday Update: Heavy Rain
Just wanted to alert you (at least, those of you who check the site on a weekend) that some heavy rain and windy conditions are in store for us this evening.
Light rain should begin falling by mid-afternoon Sunday, with heavy, soaking rain to fall—more or less nonstop—from 5 or 6pm Sunday evening to mid-morning on Monday. The rain will then taper off through early afternoon.
Temperatures will actually rise overnight with this storm, from the 40s on Sunday evening to the 50s on Monday morning, so we have nothing to worry about in terms of any frozen precipitation.
Some places could get as much as two inches of rain out of this system, so flooding is a concern. We could even have a rumble of thunder or two on Monday morning!
Temperatures will fall a bit throughout the week, and our next best chance of snow is Thursday night into Friday. (Right now, this Thursday-to-Friday event is looking pretty minor, but it bears close watching. Stay tuned for updates.)
Toward next weekend, we’ll see a return to very cold conditions (highs struggling to reach freezing). Looking into February, the next decent chances of wintry precipitation are on the 2nd and the 6th.
UPDATE: Downgrade for tonight's event
I regret to inform you:
Latest model guidance suggests that the precipitation will pass to our south, and that anyone north of Philadelphia will likely get little to no precipitation. Now it appears only Delaware and extreme south Jersey will be affected by this system.
There is still a small chance of a shift in track, giving us (at best) what I forecast yesterday. But I’m going with an across-the-board downgrade...
Chance of closing Friday: 10%
Chance of delay Friday: 25%
Still windy with rain on Sunday evening.
Next best chances for snow: Thursday 1/28, February 2nd through 4th. Stay tuned!